Episode Transcript
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(00:01):
Hey everybody. Welcome back to the Elon Musk
Podcast. This is a show where we discuss
the critical crossroads, the shape, SpaceX, Tesla X, The
Boring Company and Neurolink. I'm your host, Will Walden.
Tesla will report a second quarter earnings this week and
investors want to know whether the company score business has
(00:23):
finally turned around. The main question going into
this report is what are the company's next Gen. vehicle?
The Model Q will offer enough financial and strategic clarity
to reset expectations after months of declining margins and
stagnant delivery growth. And all that stuff that happened
with Elon in the past with the politics and the growth has been
(00:45):
slowing. Is that over now?
The stock price, which has dropped nearly 30% year to date,
has rebounded slightly this month on renewed optimism.
But the company still needs to show proof of a viable path
forward with this Model Q. Now, Deutsche Bank issued a rare
(01:06):
bullish note ahead of these earnings.
They said that Tesla's Model Q announcement is an important
moment for the company's turn around and said it could be the
clearest inflection point in years.
Now they believe that the Model Q, this is the Tesla's planned
compact EV priced at around $25,000, which is would be very
welcome to a lot of people. A lot of people don't have 45 to
(01:29):
$50,000 to spend on a car. But this vehicle $25,000 vehicle
could become the company's highest volume car ever.
Now, Tesla told investors in thepast that it expects to launch
this vehicle by the second-half of 2025.
Deutsche Bank expects Tesla to release more precise production
and cost details during this earning call, and they said that
(01:53):
such disclosures would likely reassure investors about future
profitability. The Model Q would not just
expand Tesla's product portfolio, though they have a
lot of cars already. It would also allow Tesla to
compete directly in the global mass market EV segment,
especially in Europe and Asia, where competitors like BYD and
Renault have aggressively pricedelectric compact vehicles, some
(02:18):
below $20,000 USD now. Tesla's ability to hit the
$25,000 price target will dependon cost efficiency in battery
manufacturing, simplified production lines, and in house
hardware innovations. And analysts have speculated
that Tesla's planned Mexico Gigafactory and its revised
(02:39):
unboxed vehicle assembly processare central to making the Model
Q roll out in probably next year, probably not later this
year, to be honest with you. There's no announcement yet.
So they haven't started manufacturing.
They're still going through the phases of design and
development, and they're right on the cusp of probably getting
(03:02):
it ready for manufacturing now. This earning call will also face
pressure to explain some very important things.
How Tesla plans to reverse declining gross margins.
And that fell from 18.2% in quarter 1 to 17.4% in quarter
two last year, and they're expected to drop once again now.
(03:23):
Tesla's consistent price cuts across the Model 3IN Model Y
lineup throughout the first halfof 2024 have narrowed the
profits even as sales volumes have flattened the Wall Street.
Analysts estimate that Tesla's automotive gross margin,
excluding regulatory credits, could fall to around 15% for
quarter 2. Now, beyond this Model Q, which
(03:47):
we don't even know if it's coming out yet, Tesla needs to
show off AI, robotics and software and how they're going
to contribute to real revenue. Right now the robots don't make
them any money and the AI which is integrated in their vehicles
and robots doesn't make them anymoney and their software in
(04:08):
their vehicles makes them money.And the AI in the vehicles makes
the money as far as when you buya vehicle.
But after that there's no real profit after the the purchase of
your vehicle. Now during the last earnings
call, Elon emphasized progress in self driving software and
(04:28):
also the robotics, but gave veryfew concrete financial targets.
And investors are growing impatient.
They have vague timelines. Analysts at Wedbush wrote this
week that the July 23rd earningscall will be Tesla's most
important in years because the company has to clarify how it
(04:50):
will commercialize full Self Driving, and there are some
theories. Elon has mentioned this a few
times, but the full Self drivingcould be purchased from other
manufacturers or license from other manufacturers depending on
the play here. But if they do license it from
Tesla, if Tesla can figure this out and they can figure it out
(05:13):
and the safety is right there isperfect, then other car
manufacturers will jump on boardwith full self driving.
They'll just license it. That will be another revenue
generating stream for Tesla. Also optimist, how are you going
to scale it? What is it going to do?
We have very vague ideas of whatOptimist is going to do.
(05:36):
Warehouse, some manufacturing probably, and in home and other
things. That's pretty much all we know.
We know we can walk down a hill,we know we can dance, we know it
can serve popcorn, but we don't really know anything else other
than those things. And Elon really hasn't said.
(05:59):
Basically, he hasn't put into writing and he hasn't set any
concrete, put any concrete data forward about what Optimus is
going to be used for other than it can be used for anything
because it's going to be a humanoid robot.
It'll do human things. But those are the things that we
think are going to happen in thethe first iteration of Optimus.
(06:21):
There's going to be some warehouse things.
They're already using Optimus inproduction lines in Tesla
factories. And also like I said before,
they're serving popcorn with it at the new Tesla stop in
California. So other than that, we don't see
it in any homes. We don't see it in any other
(06:43):
manufacturing. We don't see it in warehouses.
We don't see it in places that it could be used for in a, in a
more operational sense, in a more scaled sense.
But hopefully Elon will come through with some concrete
evidence of that. And then also AIXAI, of course,
(07:03):
Elon's AI company with Grok and Grok has been put into Tesla
vehicles recently. Some people don't want it there.
Some people love the idea of having a chatbot in their car
because they could just ask it to do things.
They could say, hey Grok, what is the chance that Godzilla
would destroy Captain America ina fight?
Or say, like, hey Grok, what if Godzilla were to fight Luke
(07:27):
Skywalker? What would happen?
And then Grok would answer them.Of course, some people are
skeptical about this because of all the this conspiracy theories
and everything else that Grok has been doing recently.
They don't want that in their vehicle.
Because think about if that wereto happen and you said
something, you prompted it in a way that it would say something
(07:49):
anti-Semitic or pro Hitler or something like that.
People are skeptical about that.So Elon has to make sure and he
has to really just say this, that Grock will not do this ever
again. He just has to say it, you know?
And I know there are mistakes and I know people have prompted
(08:10):
it in ways to manipulate it to say things that were not very
great. But Elon has to come forward and
he has to say, look, man, this is never going to happen again.
That was horrible. I don't want it to happen again.
So we're going to put all the checks in place.
And XAI has come forward and said, we've put put this in
(08:31):
place. But Elon has to do it in this
talk. Elon has to come forward and say
it. And if he doesn't say that,
investors, you know, investors won't be as happy.
So if he doesn't say that, he says, like, look, we've worked
on the problem. We know what the problem was and
we put up barriers, we put up guidelines for it to never say
those things again. So if you want like an open a
(08:52):
free speech chat bot in your Tesla, then there you go.
That's a grok for you. But if that's important that you
can talk to your car, that's great, that's awesome, good for
you. A lot of people won't like it.
Some people don't want their data and their conversations
(09:12):
recorded, but most people don't really care if they have a Tesla
anyway, so it's all good. Cybertruck now.
They haven't really scaled volume production yet, and
statements suggest that Tesla still faces logistical and
engineering issues. At Giga, Texas in June, Tesla
admitted that Cybertruck ramp uphas taken longer than expected
(09:34):
due to the complexity of stainless steel manufacturing
and production automation. Analysts now expect Tesla to
produce fewer than 100,000 cybertrucks in 2024, which is far
below earlier projections. But I want to ask you a real
quick question. I've noticed, I'd love to dig
into our analytics here at the show.
And I've noticed that 24% of youare subscribed to the show,
(09:58):
which is amazing. Thank you for your support and I
love when you come back and listen to more episodes because
I want you to have all the information about Elon's
companies and Elon himself. But the other amount of people,
the other percentage of people haven't yet subscribed to the
show. So I want to ask you for one
second of your time and I'm going to give you the next 10
(10:20):
years of mine. If you just hit the follow
button on whatever podcast platform you're on right now,
I'd greatly appreciate it because you'll get Tesla news,
Cybertruck news, SpaceX news, Elon news, Neurolink news, XAI
news, X news, all the Elon news every single day.
It's every day and it's around 10 minutes of your day.
(10:42):
And then you can move on and think about what a great thing
Elon has given to the world as far as Tesla goes.
And I bring that to you every day for free.
So if you could just do me that little favor, one second of your
time, you'll get, I guarantee you I'll be here for the next 10
years. Been doing it for five years.
Not going to stop. I have almost 1000 episodes.
(11:04):
I'm going to guess somewhere on there I'll get back to you
tomorrow with that estimate, butI'll give you a full rundown of
all the episodes and how many episodes we've had.
So thank you very much. I appreciate your time.
Now let's get back to some of the the the details about the
upcoming talk with Elon Musk. So we have to think about Elon's
(11:26):
public behavior too, and what he's been doing with politics
and his own finances. They've added uncertainty to
some investors. In April, shareholders approved
a controversial pay package thatcould net Musk 10s of billions
(11:46):
in Tesla stock. More big investors,
Institutional investors voiced concern that Tesla's board had
prioritized Musk's interests over long term corporate
strategies. And they warned that Musk's
attention is divided between allof his companies.
Tesla, XXAI, SpaceX politics, tweeting at ungodly hours in the
(12:13):
morning and at night and just his attention is all over the
place and he's not focusing on Tesla.
So they're, they're worried about his execution risk across
Tesla's many simultaneous initiatives because Tesla isn't
just, they don't just make A1 car anymore.
They make numerous cars. They make a truck, they're going
to make this $25,000 car. Also, they have AI, they have,
(12:39):
you know, the, the Grok integration.
They also have robotics. They're an AI company 1st, and
they're a car company second now.
So, you know, there there's someother things like the energy
business that have shown promisebut remains too small to offset
core automotive declines. Battery storage installations
(12:59):
hit record levels earlier this year, and the company has ramped
up Megapack deployments globally.
However, this division still contributes less than 10% of
total revenue for Tesla. They want clarity on whether
Tesla sees the segment as a future growth engine or just
kind of like a side hobby. Like they have this so they can
(13:20):
make batteries for people's houses for their cars.
So, you know, if if this is the thing that they want to continue
doing, you know, with solar and batteries, battery packs, they
have to really drive home like why they have this for some
investors now, Tesla began offering leasing deals for Model
(13:41):
3 and model wise with lower monthly payments and reduced
down payments as well. That was last month or last
week. I suggested the company is
actively trying to clear inventory or stimulate demand
ahead of a Model 3 refresh and the Model Q reveal.
So the Model 3 refresh will probably, you know, they'll
mention that in the call too, but lower lease pricing might
(14:05):
boost short term delivery numbers, also weighs further on
gross margins. So they're basically trying to
get in the like every sale or every lease that they can get
every any kind of revenue they can get to come in before this
call. So they can bump up the numbers
a little bit. They do this every year and it's
just, it's a how corporations work.
They put everything on sale for a little bit, make a little bit
(14:26):
extra money and be like, hey, look, look what we did last
round and like what we just did last week.
So, and it hypes people up too, when they know that they're
getting a deal, the people that are actually buying the vehicles
and when they're getting a deal.But also it hypes up the
investors because they see thesenumbers coming in and they see
(14:46):
the Tesla has sold X amount of vehicles in the last week or
leased them and made this X amount of money.
Then they know that they're really working hard for the
money, you know, so that's happening right now too.
The leasing is happening right now and if you have a chance, go
check it out. But what we really are
(15:09):
interested in is the Model Q progress.
They haven't really said anything about it.
We know what's happening, but wewant some positive news on that.
Could it drive a sharp rebound for Tesla?
Because right now it's kind of stagnant.
The cyber truck was like the bigthing for a little while, then
that kind of faded out. You see, we're on town, but no
(15:30):
one's really like super hyped about it.
They're like, hey, that's a cooltruck, but it's not like it once
was like, wow, that thing is wild looking, you know, just
another truck now. It still looks a little wild on
the roads, but you know, you seethem all over the place and
centimeters died down. They're expensive.
They're hard to find or they're hard to buy because they're so
expensive. If somebody, you know, if you're
in the market for a vehicle and your price tag is around
(15:54):
$30,000, you're not going to buya cyber truck.
You're going to want the Model Q.
But Tesla still, after all this,they remain the most valuable
car company by market cap. It's lead in EV technology no
longer looks unassailable as it did two years ago.
(16:15):
Other companies are jumping in here.
They're taking on Tesla, Hyundai, Honda, even Subaru.
I'm a big Subaru supporter. They're coming in with some EVs
and they're not taking a huge market share.
But you know, they have an EV, so Tesla needs to make something
that's good for everybody. And they usually, you know, they
(16:37):
have the high market, the high end of the market, and they have
to like the mid high and then they don't have the low market,
which is the 20,000 to 30,000. I mean, also like lower than
that. It's like 15.
But they're not going to make a $15,000 EV.
There's no way they can do that.So we'll see what happens.
It's going to be the wild ride. So some analysts have said that
(17:05):
earnings per share will fall year over year, with consensus
revenue estimates just over $24 billion.
Now, the direction of Tesla stock in a second-half of 2024
was OK 2025 will likely depend on what the company says about
the Model QFSD adoption and alsomargin recovery from all of that
(17:31):
downturn. This is going to be a pivotal
moment for SpaceX or sorry for Tess.
I have a SpaceX video coming outafter this, so I'm getting ready
for that too. You can check out our YouTube
channel too, Stage 0 news for SpaceX news, and some of these
podcasts are posted up there too.
(17:51):
So there you go. It's going to be an interesting
call on the 23rd, July 23rd and then we'll see, you know, we'll
see what happens with this call.It's going to be really wild to
see if Tesla can bounce back from this, this downturn.
Right now. Tesla stock is down .13% right
(18:16):
now as I'm recording this, and this is 7/21/2025 at about 3:38
PM Eastern Time. So it doesn't look really
promising for Elon right now at this moment because stocks
should be boosting up if they know good things are happening.
(18:38):
All right, that's it for now. Please take a second, hit the
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(18:59):
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