Episode Transcript
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(00:00):
This is the Elon Musk Podcast, your daily hit of what is really
going on at Tesla, SpaceX, XAI, and the rest of the Musk
universe. I'm your host Will Walden, and I
have covered Elon Musk for more than five years.
I spent a year on the ground at SpaceX Starbase during early
Starship development, and beforethis I spent my career as a
software developer working with billion dollar companies.
(00:21):
I've also built and sold my own businesses and now I make
content and help other people grow their companies.
And on this show, I use that experience to breakdown the
news, filter out all the noise, and give you clear context you
can actually use. Tesla has set a $20,000 target
price for its Optimist humanoid robot and laid out an extremely
(00:43):
fast production ramp. The plan puts Optimist on a path
for a 2026 reveal to mass manufacturing with lines that
scale from 1,000,000 units a year to a long term goal of 10
million. Now you get a clear map of what
Tesla says it'll build, how fastit wants to scale, and why that
price matters for adoption. In this episode.
Now one detail stands out, though.
(01:05):
Elon Musk called the robot's hands and forearm some of the
hardest engineering challenges at Tesla.
Now, can Tesla hit these targetsbefore rivals in China turn
humanoids into a commodity? After this break, we'll unpack
Tesla's timeline, the factory math behind a $20,000 unit, the
AI compute bill that Musk says reaches into the 10s of
(01:26):
billions, and why an op-ed from CNBC argues that China could
block the path to Musk's trillion dollar compensation.
Now, I'm going to connect those facts to what a realistic first
wave of optimist deployments could look like and how the plan
tries to turn today's car factory muscle into robot
output. I'm your host.
(01:46):
I'm an independent reporter who has worked with SpaceX.
It's covered Musk space, the frontier tech for the last six
years. And we will get right into that
after this very short break. Now Tesla's optimist plan moves
from concept to a price product with scaling road map.
And the company sent a $20,000 target and paired it with a
(02:07):
production sequence that starts with a Gen. 3 reveal in early of
2026, possibly in about four or five months.
And the transition from reveal. The manufacturing fits into
Tesla's playbook of vertical integration, reused hardware and
large scale lines, so it argues,lowered costs in vehicles and
can carry over to robots. But we haven't seen a lower cost
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Tesla yet. How are they going to get this
robot to $20,000? Tesla described the ramp as the
fastest ever for a complex product, and the milestones are
legit. Production begins in 2026 with a
near term line in Fremont sized at around 1,000,000 units per
year. The company then aims for
roughly 4 million units a year by the end of 2027 on an
(02:50):
aspirational basis in a longer term target of a 10 million unit
line at Giga Texas. Elon Musk frames this as
optimist as a mass product rather than a lab prototype
anymore, and the numbers signal a bid to out produce Tesla's own
car volumes within a few years now.
This $20,000 price tag only works if engineering choices
(03:13):
reuse proven pieces. Tesla says Optimus will pull
from its car parts bin for actuators, power electronics,
batteries, audio in the same camera suite and AI chip that
runs in your Model 3, Model Y, Model X, Model S and Cybertruck.
Now the company argues that years of building autonomous
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robots on wheels, which of theirvehicles reduce most of the
problem to the last stretch of humanoid mechanics and safety.
Now, I think that the reuse willcut the bill of materials risk
and let Tesla place early ordersat automotive scale, which is
how you chase a $20,000 sticker price for this autonomous robot.
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Now Elon also drew a line between hardware and
intelligence costs. And it's very expensive.
Musk said the intelligence required to make Optimist useful
will demand 10s of billions of dollars in training compute.
That's been links to Tesla's in house AI5 chip concept and it's
terrafab idea for scaling the brain as aggressively as the
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body. If you believe the path to
useful general tasks runs through high capacity vision
models and robot learning, then the compute bill becomes a
gating factor as real as castinga torso for this robot.
But there is a candid caveat. Musk called the forearms and
hands extremely challenging, andhe described optimists as one of
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Teslas hardest projects ever. The admission matters because
how hand designed governs dexterity, safety and test
diversity, and then it sets the ceiling and how valuable a
$20,000 humanoid can be on a factory floor or in a home.
Now any slippage that happens here would ripple across the
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ramp math since use cases dependon grip strength, compliance,
and the ability to handle tools without risking people.
And the factory scale section iswhere Tesla tries to change the
conversation from just a demo robot that dances at the parties
to a deliverable A1 million unitline in Fremont would create a
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large internal test bed for repetitive tasks across Tesla's
own factories, which reduces distribution risk and provides
data to improve reliability. Reaching 4 million units a year
by the end of 2027, even as a stretch target, signals that
Tesla wants learning curves to kick in before outside customers
depend on optimists for criticaloperations.
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So they're going to be using these in their warehouses before
people actually get them. Now, the 10 million unit goal in
Texas anchors the idea that thisbecomes a primary business line
for normal people like you and me that can afford a $20,000
robot. I can't afford a $20,000 robot.
Maybe you can. That would be great.
Let me know how it goes. Now layer in the CNBC op-ed,
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which says that Musk's trillion dollar compensation hinges on
Tesla transforming from an EV company just making vehicles
into a robotics powerhouse, and that China could also stand in
the way. The risk case is
straightforward. China's manufacturers can move
fast on components. They do it all the time.
They take Tesla's tech and they make it better.
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They iterate quickly on actuators and gearboxes, and
they'll scale through supply chains built for consumer
electronics and E mobility. And if Chinese firms saturate
the low end humanoid segment while Tesla is solving hands in
training, price pressure could arrive before optimist even
reaches feature parity. Imports of Chinese robots could
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destroy Tesla's Optimist program.
Now the competition frame links between the $20,000 target and
those Chinese competitors. That price tries to land below
what many Western startups quotefor small batches, and it relies
on Tesla's ability to make the hardware and software across
millions of units. The Chinese companies can push
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comparable machines below that price and sell into domestic
industrial pilots with favorablesegment.
Tesla's global margin story Titan.
Tesla's best counter to this is to tie Optimist to its AI stack
and car scale data engine, then sell off capability, safety, and
integration. Rather than only a $20,000 price
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tag, people want it all. Tesla also position Optimist as
a pillar of what Musk calls sustainable abundance.
The company sees a world where removing the human variable from
dangerous or tedious work raisesproductivity and lowers costs
across sectors. In practice, the first wins
would likely be within Tesla's own factories, though they'd get
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rid of people to replace them with robots.
They'll also be in logistics centers and controlled
facilities where tasks are scoped and safety is easier to
enforce. And that choice creates a
feedback loop. Internal deployment yields a ton
of data. Data improves the models in
improved models unlocked broadercustomers like us.
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Here's a financing reality embedded in the AI section right
now. If the intelligence spend runs
into 10s of billions of dollars,Tesla needs large predictable
cash flows from cars, energy andearlier robot sales in industry
as opposed to consumers to keep the training pipeline.
Film people will go crazy for this thing and I'm sure
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industries all over the world would love an optimist robot if
he can do the things that Elon is saying it's capable of doing
now. The plan to reuse automotive
cameras and chips helps the training clusters, simulation
and data curation Dr. Most of that intelligent costs.
The speed of the robot ramp willtrack with how quickly Tesla can
convert robot trials into paid deployments that justify more
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compute. The engineering candidness about
hands and forearms hints at the near term deployment envelope.
Elon and the team are working hard on this and expect early
optimist units to excel at well defined 2 handed tasks that do
not demand finesse such as tote handling, parts kitting, pellet
unloading, and line side material movement.
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Those jobs will test locomotion and balance, but keep grasping
within known shapes and waves. And as dexterity improves,
higher value tasks open up, including machine learning,
harness rooting, or simple assembly.
Now, if you're a large manufacturer and you have
millions of dollars to spend on robotics per year and you think
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that a robot could do a task that a human can do in a limited
functionality. At the beginning of this
rollout, the $20,000 target suggests that Tesla wants
customers to justify the purchases on one to two year
payback in those roles. And now I've been digging
through the analysis of this channel right now, and I've
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noticed that 37% of you are following this channel.
And for you, I'm forever grateful the other 63% of you
haven't hit the follower subscribe button.
Now, I've been an independent journalist covering Elon Musk,
SpaceX and tech for the last sixyears, and I'll continue for the
next 10. And all I ask from you is one
second of your time for six years of mine that I've already
done and 10 more in the future 16 years.
(10:20):
And all I want is one second. All you need to do is hit the
follower subscribe button on theplatform you're watching or
listening on right now. And if you can leave a five star
review really helps discovery. And also share this with a
friend. Anybody that would be interested
in this, please share this now. I'm extremely grateful and
blessed to have you in this community.
So thank you. Now the long term targets.
We'd like an attempt to turn therobot into Tesla's biggest
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product by unit volume. A 10 million unit Texas line, if
achieved, would over shadow the company's vehicle output,
enforce new thinking on service software updates and parts
logistics. It would also turn every
reliability improvement into a bottom line saver, since even a
small reduction and failure rateacross millions of units removes
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large warranty costs. Test those.
Vertical integration gives IT levers here that pure software
robotic startups lack. They have the ability to move
laterally and vertically any waythey need to now.
The plan also ties Optimist to Teslas FSD.
The company describes the robot's perception and planning
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as extensions of the neural networks used for driving, plus
large scale simulation that it says accelerates training.
That approach claims a head start on real world data and on
the annotation systems that support it.
If the bet pays off, training pipelines build for roads feed
into factories and warehouses. If it doesn't, though, Tesla
still benefits from shared hardware and compute
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infrastructure across cars and robots.
So this thesis is that Musk's proposed trillion dollar payout
only becomes real if Tesla executes on robots, autonomy,
and evaluation that matches thatambitious plan.
The Chinese competition could blunt the upside down.
That framing raises the stakes for the Optimist ramp at
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$20,000. A robot that ships late or lacks
dexterity slows adoption and undermines the milestones tied
to leadership and Elon Musk's own value to the company of
Tesla. A $20,000 robot that hits useful
work and scales quickly strengthens the case that Tesla
can be more than just cars and acyber truck.
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Now, Tesla did set this $20,000 target.
They're going to go over it. It's not going to be $20,000.
We all know this. That's how Tesla pricing works.
They promise, Elon promises a price tag.
And then in reality, in a few years when they realize that
it's going to cost them a lot more money to build this thing,
$20,000 goes out the window. It ends up being 30,000, maybe
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$35,000 per unit. And we'll see though.
And they said they're going to launch in 2026.
That's a year from now. They have one year to launch
this thing and they may launch in a very small beta version.
And if they launch with in Teslafactories with in space within
any of Elon Musk's companies, they would be considered a
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launch. Even though it's a small launch.
Elon could show off what Tesla can do in his own facilities and
then branch out into other industries.
That's an aggressive timeline and the scale to 1,000,000 units
to 10 million unit unit goal. While acknowledging hands and
forearms is going to be virtually impossible for any
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other company. The company plans to reuse car
grade hardware, lean on its EI stack that it's already built,
and spend 10s of billions of dollars on training to make the
robot actually useful. And you could argue that Musk's
trillion dollar compensation depends on Tesla becoming a
robotics company as opposed to acar company, and that Chinese
competition could block them out.
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Right now, Tesla needs to do a few things.
They need to show dexterous hands, convert internal pilots
into paid deployments for other customers, and also they need to
keep this ramp up of Optimus schedule.
Hey, thank you so much for listening today.
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