How Starship Flight 12 Can Save NASA

Starship ended 2025 with a successful Flight 11 and a clean handoff to Block 3. I break down what Flight 12 needs to prove, why orbital refueling is the real blocker, how Kennedy comes into play, and what must happen in 2026 to keep Artemis III on a 2027 track.

Episode Transcript

(00:01):
Hey everybody, welcome back to the Elon Musk Podcast.
This is a show where we discuss the critical crossroads that
shape SpaceX, Tesla X, The Boring Company, and Neurolink.
I'm your host, Will Walden. Starship closed 2025 on October
13th with its 11th test flight from Starbase in Texas.

(00:23):
The booster splashed down in theGulf of Mexico after a
controlled descent, and the shipended the mission in the Indian
Ocean after engine relight and heat shield tests.
NASA still pegs the first Artemis 3 crude lunar landing
for no earlier than 2027, which puts pressure on SpaceX to
accelerate milestones. So when does Flight 12 actually

(00:45):
happen? A Flight 11 delivered concrete
data the SpaceX needed. The mission, launched at 623
PMCT, sent a batch of mass simulators, Relit engines in
space, tested new thermal protection, and executed plan
splashdowns that preserved telemetry across entry, descent,
and landing. SpaceX called the flight a step

(01:08):
toward an upgraded prototype with hardware tailored for
orbital refueling and docking, and the next campaign shifts to
a new hardware class. SpaceX retires the Block 2
booster and pivots to Block 3, which brings higher thrust
structural refinement such as modified grid fins and a
slightly taller, fully stacked vehicle at about 124.4 meters.

(01:34):
This is the configuration expected to carry the lunar
variant forward now. Scheduling remains the first
practical question. SpaceX has not posted a target
for Flight 12, and early 2026 now looks more realistic than
any remaining 2025 window. The company also plans to bring
up a second launch site at Kennedy Space Center to support

(01:58):
a push toward roughly biweekly flights once the new pad and
ground systems are ready. Now, the 11th flight wrapped
Spacex's 2025 Starship test slate and cleared the decks for
the bigger upgrade. Coverage of the program framed
the transition as a move toward ship version three that
stretches capability and increases payload.

(02:20):
The year end handoff focuses engineering efforts on in orbit
refueling, docking systems and higher cadence production runs,
and refueling sits at the centerof the lunar plan.
SpaceX and NASA need an on orbittransfer between two Starships
that moves hundreds of tons of super cool propellant, A

(02:42):
maneuver no one has ever executed before.
SpaceX and NASA point to a refueling demo next year as a
gating item for the Artemis 3 timeline.
Now test count matters because the crude mission date sits on
the far side of several unprovenoperations.
Estimates in European policy circles put the need at roughly

(03:04):
10 to 20 more Starships tests before Cruise Board, assuming
nominal outcomes without long investigative processes.
Now that cadence only becomes plausible if Flight 12 starts to
2026, run early, and the ground teams turn vehicles around
without a major rework. Orbit remains another clear

(03:27):
threshold. Starship has reached space but
has not completed a full Earth orbit, which means the program
still must prove orbital performance controlled the
orbiting and recovery logistics at scale.
Flight 12 holds value if it either hits orbit or rehearses
the specific sequencing for the refueling demo and hardware

(03:51):
scope widen and SpaceX prepares the Florida site.
The company is building out Kennedy infrastructure to split
operations across Texas and Florida, which reduces weather
and range risk and supports higher cadence once the Florida
pad goes online. The dual pad approach also
creates A practical path for tanker and Lander launches that

(04:15):
must rendezvous on a tight timeline.
Mission architecture ties these pieces together.
For Artemis 3, NASA plans to send astronauts to lunar orbit
on Orion and SLS, then transfer the crew to a lunar optimized
Starship for the descent to the surface.
That transfer requires mature docking life support on the

(04:36):
Lander and a refueled Starship waiting on station.
Program risk remains manageable if SpaceX locks in a repeatable
rhythm. The 11th flight proved water
landings for both stages. Engine relight and heat shield
upgrades under real condition, which reduces unknowns for Block
3. The next step converts those

(04:58):
discrete checks into a system level demonstration of orbit,
docking hardware and propellant transfer.
Now a successful Flight 12, an operational Florida pad in a
refueling demo would put Artemis3 back on a credible path
towards a 2027 attempt. Miss cadence or partial demos

(05:21):
would push the schedule while competitors and pressure from
below. Flight 12 is very important
because it starts the Block 3 era and sets up the refueling
demo that Artemis 3 timeline needs.
Hey, thank you so much for listening today.
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(05:43):
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(06:05):
and each other and I'll see you tomorrow.