Episode Transcript
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S1 (00:09):
Three words that can make any parent's wallet flinch. Back
to school. But there's a silver lining, especially if your
state has a tax free weekend. Hi, I'm Rob West
for families gearing up for a new school year, those
tax holidays can make a real difference. Today, Crystal pane
shares smart, practical ways to get prepared and save money
(00:29):
along the way. Then it's on to your calls at
800 525 7000. That's 800, 500, 25, 7000. This is
faith in finance. Live. Biblical wisdom for your financial journey. Well,
it's always a joy to welcome Crystal Payne back to
the program. She's the founder of the popular website Money
(00:51):
Saving Mom.com, and the author of several best selling books
that offer biblical wisdom for managing family finances. Crystal. Great
to have you back.
S2 (01:01):
Thank you so much for having me here again.
S1 (01:03):
Oh, we always look forward to it. Crystal tax free
weekends have become a popular and much appreciated. I'll say
summer tradition in many states. So let's start with the basics.
What should families know before they.
S2 (01:15):
The most important thing is does your area, your state
participate in this? Not every state does. The rules vary.
You can check your state's Department of Revenue or the
Federation of Tax Administrators for a complete list and really
understand the eligible items as well, because every different things
that qualify and for instance, um, and also online as well,
(01:36):
as long as the order is placed and paid for
during the tax free window. One of the things that
I always tell people, even if you don't need to
buy things for back to school, this can be a
great opportunity to purchase other items that qualify that you need.
S1 (01:49):
Oh, interesting. And we'll be sure to include a link
to the tax administrator's site in today's show notes at Find. Now, crystal,
once you know your tax free weekend is on the calendar.
What's the smartest way to get ready?
S2 (02:02):
The biggest thing is to, like I said, know what
qualifies and then make a list of what you need
to buy. You don't want to just go in and
spend a bunch of money because it's a tax free weekend.
You want to make sure that it's actually stuff that
you need to buy. I also encourage you, if you
have kids that are over the age of 8 or 10,
that you set a budget and involve them, let them
help you make sure that you're sticking with the budget
(02:24):
and know what they need to buy as well, and
know the cutoff for the item categories so you don't
go over the price limits and lose the exemption. And also,
don't forget to check for coupons or store sales that
you can stack with the tax savings. One of the
things I love to do, especially if you're ordering online,
is to search for a coupon code. Just Google the
name of the site you're going to shop at and
(02:45):
the word coupon code. And it will oftentimes pull up
a lot of different coupon codes and then also shop
through a cash back site like Retailmenot to earn cash
back for your online purchase.
S1 (02:54):
Yeah, and make sure you watch Money-saving Mom.com as well.
Always a good idea. All right. You brought up online shopping, Crystal.
And that's an area where people often have questions. So
can you help clear up how it works during a
tax free weekend?
S2 (03:08):
So in most states, if you order and pay during
the holiday window and the item qualifies, it's tax exempt
even if it ships later. Now the item must be
shipped to an in-state address and retailers often do not participate.
So again, you got to know the eligibility. And some
states include shipping in the price cap. So be mindful
of that when you're checking out. And always review your
(03:30):
confirmation receipt to ensure tax wasn't mistakenly charged.
S1 (03:34):
Okay, good. Yeah that's helpful. Now these are certainly great
ways to save. But saving isn't the ultimate goal. So
let's talk about just stewardship in general. Crystal how can
we be intentional and honor the Lord through the way
we spend?
S2 (03:46):
You know, for me, thank you for purchasing this because
it's wise or just because it's discounted. I call it
saving where you spend to save, where you're spending money,
thinking you're saving money when you actually aren't. And, you know,
I really think that it's important that we prioritize, you know,
where do we want to be long term? What are
our long term goals and what glorifies God today and
(04:08):
inviting God into the process, even asking him, you know,
if I need to purchase something, praying beforehand and asking God,
can you help me to find a deal on this?
Or help me to know what I'm supposed to purchase?
And he's always so faithful.
S1 (04:22):
Mhm. That is so true and well said. We've got
just about 30s left. What's one thing you're doing in
the Payne household to get ready for the school year?
Just around the corner.
S2 (04:32):
Well we always plan ahead a few weeks before school starts.
We actually start the schedule that we're going to have
when the school year starts, so that it's not just,
you know, Monday school starts and we have this brand
new schedule. We gear up for it.
S1 (04:46):
I love it. That is such a good idea. Well, Krystal,
it's always a joy to have you and we appreciate
your biblical but practical advice. Thanks for being here.
S2 (04:54):
Thanks so much for having me.
S1 (04:56):
That's family finance expert Crystal Payne. For more information and
her practical wisdom and money saving tips, check out Money-saving Mom.com.
That's money saving mom.com. All right, your calls are next.
800 525 7000. This is faith in finance live. We're
just getting started.
S3 (05:26):
The opinions offered during this program represent the personal or
professional opinions of the participants, given for informational purposes only.
Any information provided is not intended to replace advice from
a financial, medical, legal or other professional who understands your
specific situation.
S1 (05:50):
We're glad to have you with us today on Faith
and Finance Live. I'm Rob West, where I'm looking forward
to taking your calls and questions today. I've got some
lines open. Now would be a great time to call
800 525 7000. Again, that number is 800 525 7000.
We've got plenty of time to get into your questions today.
And here's what we know. We know that you want
(06:12):
to be a steward, a wise steward of what God
has entrusted to you. That's why you're listening to this program.
Because each day we set aside one hour here on
Moody Radio to encourage you in your stewardship journey, recognizing
God owns it all. We're his money managers, and we
want to be found faithful. We can't do that without
each other, without looking to God's Word for counsel, and
(06:34):
by gathering to be able to consider the practical next
steps in our financial life. So if you've got that
question today about your spending plan or your debt repayment,
maybe it's investing for the future. Whatever it is, go
ahead and call right now and we'll get you in
the queue and try to get you on the broadcast
here very quickly. The lines are filling up, but there's
still room for you. 800. Five. Two. Five. 7000. In
(06:58):
the news today, at least one Federal Reserve governor thinks
interest rates are too high. That's right. Fed Governor Christopher
Waller said this week that he still believes the current
interest rate is too tight, even after a solid June
jobs report. He's signaling support for a possible rate cut
at the next meeting in July. Though other fed officials
(07:19):
remain cautious. Here's what Waller had to say. Inflation is
slowing and the fed has likely done enough to cool
the economy. He believes the recent uptick in prices may
be tied to temporary factors like tariffs, not a long
term trend. Waller also wants the fed to shift its
balance sheet toward shorter term treasuries to reduce risk. While
(07:41):
he's open to future economic data and how that might
change his mind, he's emphasized the bar is too high
to delay a July cut. Now, that's in contrast to
the Fed's more cautious consensus, with many officials eyeing the
fall for a first cut. But Waller's comments are turning
heads and markets are listening. Jerry Bowyer will join us
(08:02):
straight ahead to give us his take on the markets
and the economy. The Dow Jones closing off about 6/10
of 1% lower. That's about 280 points. The Nasdaq off
just less than one quarter of 1% off 45 points.
But Jerry will weigh in on all of it. That's
coming up in our final segment today. In the meantime,
(08:23):
let's take your calls and questions. Again a few lines open.
That's 800 525 7000. You can call right now. We're
going to dive in beginning in Cleveland, Ohio. Melinda, thanks
for your call today. Go ahead.
S4 (08:37):
My question is I am a teacher who is still working.
I'm 67, but I'm not paying into state teachers retirement
because I work at a private school. However, I have
been eligible to take my retirement money from the state
teachers retirement since the age of 60. However, if I
do that, there's a great deal of tax taken out
(08:58):
regardless either way. But if I take my retirement money
from 65 and it roughly comes out to like 22,000
after they've taken out the tax money. Do you think
it would be wise to just invest that money or
would it be better? We have a house payment still. Um,
(09:18):
we owe on our house and we want to have
that paid off before my husband and I both retire.
So would it be more beneficial to us to put
that on the principal of our house and the payments
that I get from state, state teachers, retirement, along with
my salary, make our house payment and an additional house
payment in addition to putting that 22,000 down on the house.
S1 (09:40):
Yeah. Uh, so how far off is retirement for the
two of you?
S4 (09:45):
Well, my husband is will turn 65 in December, and
I've just taken on a new role at the private
school that I teach at, So probably several more years
and for him the same.
S1 (09:57):
Okay. Got it. Yeah. And are you on track to
pay off the house by the time you both retire?
If you don't take this money and put it toward principal.
S4 (10:07):
Well, we won't retire until we pay off the house.
S1 (10:10):
Okay. Got it. Yeah. So what is left on that
mortgage right now?
S4 (10:16):
The last time I checked, it was about 77,000.
S1 (10:19):
Okay. And what do you have available? What's the total
amount in that teacher's retirement if you take the lump sum?
S4 (10:27):
Um, if I take it from 65, um, it's about 32,000, 33,000.
But by the time they take the 10% out or 20% out,
it ends up being about 22,000.
S1 (10:41):
Okay. And are you all sending extra on an annual
basis toward the principal?
S4 (10:46):
Currently we have not.
S1 (10:49):
Okay. All right. So what is that runway if you
just continue to to pay it off based on the
scheduled payment, when do you expect to have that paid off?
How many years remain?
S4 (11:01):
You know, I'm I'm not really clear on that right now.
I should have checked that. That's okay to do that.
S1 (11:07):
Yeah. No problem.
S4 (11:07):
What we were going to do was with the payment
that I received and that I received from state teachers retirement.
We were going to use that to pay on principle, um,
and use my regular salary as, as we have always
used it.
S1 (11:23):
Yeah. So you can okay. So you can either take
the lump sum of the 32,000 or you can take, um,
a monthly income stream, but it's both the same retirement.
Is that right?
S4 (11:36):
It's the same retirement. But because I, I could have
taken it at 60, there was a lump sum that
they would pay out since I'm 67, if I take
the 65 say that I retire at 65, they're going
to pay me what I should have had from 65
up to 67, in that lump sum. And then I
still receive my monthly retirement payment.
S1 (11:59):
Okay. And is that the 32,000 or is that a
different amount?
S4 (12:05):
The monthly payment would be about $1,400.
S1 (12:08):
And you're going to get that regardless, or that's only
if you don't take the the 32 regardless.
S4 (12:14):
That's regardless.
S1 (12:15):
Okay. And so the the 32,000, which I realized would
be reduced by taxes. That's separate from the 1800 a month.
S4 (12:24):
Correct.
S1 (12:25):
Okay. Yeah. Um, and so basically you take the 32,
you you'd pay the tax or set that portion aside,
or they'd withhold it, and then you'd pay that toward
the mortgage. That would bring the, the mortgage down to,
let's say, 55, uh, at that point. And then you'd
take that 1800 a month and add it to your
principal payment to get that paid off. Now, once you
(12:48):
get to that place where the home is paid off,
then you continue to earn the 1800 a month for
the rest of your life. Plus, what Social Security or
what other retirement assets will you have?
S4 (13:00):
Social security?
S1 (13:01):
Okay. And do you all have.
S4 (13:02):
The safe and.
S1 (13:04):
Sure. And then does your husband have a retirement plan
as well?
S4 (13:08):
He does.
S1 (13:09):
Okay. And so you would then roll that to an
IRA or something and start pulling an income stream off
of that to supplement.
S4 (13:17):
Well, he doesn't have a lot in that because he
was out of work for a very long period of time,
and we had to use what was in his retirement
account to supplement us during that time, that he was
out of work because I was a stay at home
mom at that time. So we don't really have anything
other than Social Security and state teachers retirement.
S1 (13:35):
Okay. Got it. Yeah. I mean, the only downside with
working tax bracket than you will be if you took
that money down the road. So I think I'd prefer that,
you know, if, if you can sync up the payoff
of this thing with the 1800 a month, uh, to
a reasonable time period that you all are willing to
continue to work, and we can preserve the 32,000, roll
(13:58):
it over and let it continue to grow or or
start to convert that to an income. You know, we
could take another $100 a month. That would be my preference.
And then we pull that out when your taxes are lower.
Let's do this. Um, let's talk off the air. I've
got to hit this break. We'll be right back. Great
(14:21):
to have you with us today on Faith and finance live.
I'm Rob West. We're taking your calls and questions today.
800 525 7000. Let's head right back to the phones. Uh, Atlanta, Georgia. Lori,
how can I help you?
S5 (14:33):
Hey, how are you today?
S1 (14:35):
I'm great. Thanks for your call.
S5 (14:37):
I'm calling because I want to know what would be
best for me at this time. Should I leave my
money in my thrift savings? Should I take it out
and move it somewhere else? Uh, I'm just kind of
up in arms about this.
S1 (14:50):
Yeah, it's a great question. So you have a TSP account? Uh,
have you retired and separated from service or are you
still there?
S5 (14:58):
I have, I have a year ago, a year and
a half ago. Yeah.
S1 (15:01):
Okay. And what do you have in that account?
S5 (15:03):
It's like 75,000.
S1 (15:05):
Okay. And what are you living on today?
S5 (15:09):
Uh, I'm living off of my husband's social security and
my pension.
S1 (15:14):
Okay. Got it. And is that enough to cover your bills?
S5 (15:19):
Well, I need some home repairs. It's enough to cover
my bills and cover me. But it's not enough to
cover the home repairs.
S1 (15:25):
Okay. And so, were you thinking about using a portion
of the TSP for the home repairs or something else?
S5 (15:32):
Yeah. I'm thinking. Yeah, that's exactly. I wanted to wait
till next year because I pulled some out from another, uh,
I had another investment, and I pulled all of that
out already for, okay for this particular year, but I
wanted to wait till next year to pull out from
the TSP. P.
S1 (15:47):
Got it. Okay. And then, um, what, uh, what is
the total that you're expecting to spend on those repairs?
S5 (15:55):
About 25,000.
S1 (15:57):
Okay. Yeah. I mean, you know, the the pros of
the TSP are the those investment accounts have some of
the lowest costs around. There's a simple, uh, number of
investment options. So, as you probably know, you've got the
life cycle, the L funds, you've got the securities, and
then you've got some stock and bond funds. But there's
a a nice, simple menu that say the 50,000. Or
(16:22):
maybe you roll the whole thing and you leave 25
in money market. I wouldn't in either case, whether you
leave it or roll it out, I wouldn't invest the
25,000 that you're planning to use next year. I'd keep
that in the most stable. So in the TSP that's
going to be the G account. Um, if you roll
it to an IRA, you could just leave it in
money market. But with the portion that you could invest,
(16:44):
you could leave it there with the TSP. Or if
you roll it to an IRA, you're going to have
more options. But with more options means you've got more
things to choose from, and you've got to have some
expertise in doing that. Um, so at that point, you
can either hire an advisor like a certified Kingdom advisor,
or you could visit with our friends at Sound Mind Investing.
(17:05):
You could use a robo advisor. But I think there's
something to be said about just the simplicity of the TSP.
So what I'd probably do is, is, if you haven't already,
move the 25,000 that you need next year to the
G fund. And then I would say, you know, with
the rest of it, you could do a mixture of
maybe 50 over 50 toward the, the C and the S,
(17:28):
maybe put, um, you know, half of it in that
of the 50,000. And then the other half, uh, you know,
in the, uh, in the F fund, which is the,
the fixed income fund, which is bonds. And then just,
just let it grow. And then at some point, you know,
you could start pulling an income from it. Or maybe
you just leave it there and and you tap it
(17:49):
down the road if you guys need it for long
term care or some other expenses that come up down
the road. Does that make sense?
S5 (17:56):
Yeah it does. I was just concerned about with the
government concerned with that portion of it, but I'm not
going to pull anything out until next year. It'll be
next year that I'll pull the 25,000. But I'll think
about the CNA s I have some in the CNS already,
but that that's that's good enough for me. What you're
saying I can comprehend that.
S1 (18:18):
So okay. Well, and I would tell you just I
mean the thrift savings plan with the, the security that
you've got just from the backing of the federal oversight
and the protections, I, I don't have any problem with that.
I think that's about as safe as it comes now.
There's no protection against market loss. So anything that's in
the the C or the S or even the F
(18:39):
for that matter, there's market risk there. If the market's
down or the bond market's down you're going to lose value.
But I'm just talking about from a safety standpoint in
terms of, you know, you don't have to worry that
the Thrift Savings Plan is going to go defunct or,
you know, there would be some sort of fraud there.
There's there's strong federal oversight and protection. And for that
(18:59):
portion that's in the government, the G fund, um, you know,
that's just about as safe as it gets. Nothing's risk free,
but that's as close to it as you can get.
So I think that would be, you know, the pull
out next year. Go ahead and move to G. And
that way if the market's down you don't have to
worry about selling at a loss.
S5 (19:16):
Right okay I got you. That's good. Thank you so
much I appreciate.
S1 (19:19):
You're welcome I.
S5 (19:20):
Appreciate your show. And I've been listening since Larry I
think Larry Burkett.
S1 (19:24):
Wow. That goes back a long way. Well I'm so
thrilled to hear that. And I'm glad you're a faithful listener.
Call anytime. Okay.
S5 (19:32):
Thank you so much. You have a great day and
God bless.
S1 (19:34):
You and God bless you as well. Lori, thank you
for your call. Uh, to Ohio. Hi, Linda. Go ahead.
S6 (19:41):
Oh, yes. Hi, Rob. Thank you so much for your
financial advice. I enjoy your show.
S1 (19:46):
Thank you very much.
S6 (19:47):
I thank you. Okay. Um, I have, uh, some extra money.
About 40,000. I have, um, I have it in almost 50,000,
in a money market. But I would like to know
what other areas I put some money that I'm going
(20:08):
to be getting, like 10,000. I'd like to take some
of my money. I don't want it all in one place,
you know, like in my money market. What other areas
is there that I could. It's just like for emergency
money because I have a really good retirement plan. I'm
74 and, um, I have a good retirement, and I
(20:30):
have a really nice annuity that I could pull on,
but I really, I really don't at this point. I
don't know, I just don't want to touch my annuity for,
to have liquid money, you know, because, you know, in
case I need it for home repairs or whatever. So
I have this, like around 50,000 that I would like to,
(20:53):
to break up other than just to have it all
in my money market.
S1 (20:58):
Got it. Yeah, that makes sense. All right, let's do this. Linda,
it's a great question. I'm up against a break here,
so I'm going to take that break. When we come back,
I'll come right back to you and give you my
thoughts on where you might consider putting this 40,000 to
stay very safe, where you've got good liquidity, you've got
good safety, a decent yield, but perhaps diversifying away from
(21:20):
those institutions that you're already with, with the current liquid
money that you have. So we'll tackle that right around
the corner. This is faith in finance live. We'll be
right back. Hey, do you love the program? Do you
listen regularly? Maybe you found something of value that will
(21:41):
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You can support us at $35 a month or more
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(22:05):
We'll send you each of our new studies and devotionals.
In fact, we're working on our new devotional that will
be out in the fall. It's going to be incredible.
I've distilled all of the the key topics, 21 of
them that I think every Christian needs to know to
be able to understand a biblical worldview of money into
this devotional that we're really excited about. It'll be one
(22:26):
of our flagship tools, and it will be sent to
each of our partners. So if you'd like to be
a partner, just check it out faithfully. Before the break,
we were talking to Linda in Ohio. She's got $40,000 liquid.
She's wondering where she can put it to earn some interest.
She's already got an annuity. They have their lifestyle spending
covered with their retirement. She doesn't want a CD and
(22:48):
she's just wondering where should I put that? And I
think the key, Linda, is if you're really looking for
something that is not going to fluctuate, so you're looking
for the safety of it. You don't want to take
any risk with it, but you're wanting to maximize the return.
And you don't want a CD. Really. You've got only
just a couple of options. One would be Treasury bills
(23:09):
and notes. So these are U.S. government treasuries, bills, bonds
and notes. You can get them very short with duration
through the bills anywhere from four weeks to a year.
They're yielding about 5% today. You'd find that at treasurydirect.gov.
The other option is to go, you know, into another
high yield savings account. So you could do that, for instance,
(23:31):
with our friends at Christian Community Credit Union, you could
go to Faith to learn more. But this is a
credit union specifically for believers. Levers there, offering 5% right now.
And there's a bonus for faith by listeners of up
to $400 if you use the keyword Faith five. But
that would be an example of a high yield account
(23:52):
where you're diversifying away from the institutions you've already got.
So you're spreading the risk. And as long as you're
under 250,000, you know, you've got the insurance, either the
FDIC insurance or another type of insurance that guarantees it.
But right now, you should be able to find between
4 and 5%, and the money would be completely liquid. Now,
(24:14):
as interest rates come down, those will be, you know,
they will fall. But you know, those two things, either
the Treasury bills or the high yield savings are probably
going to give you what you're looking for, which is
the maximum yield with the highest safety and liquidity. Does
that make sense?
S7 (24:35):
Um.
S6 (24:36):
What was the other one other than the Treasury bills?
What was the second one you talked talk about.
S1 (24:41):
Yeah. What I was saying is. Yeah, no problem. Um,
Christian Community Credit Union is, um, you know, one of
our partners, more and more of our listeners are wanting
to align their investment partners and their banking partner with
their Christian values. And so Christian Community Credit Union was
built for Christians, and they have some wonderful savings vehicles. Um,
(25:04):
and so you could check them out, you could go
to our website. Um, but the other option is just to,
you know, look around and see which online banks have
the very highest yield. But any of those high yield
accounts where there's insurance and you're getting somewhere between 4
and 5%, you know, that's about the best you can
do right now with the kind of safety and liquidity
(25:26):
that you're looking for.
S6 (25:29):
Okay, Rob, where is this Christian Community Credit Union located?
S1 (25:33):
Yeah, there there would not be in your area, but
they have an ATM network. Um, you know, that's nationwide.
So you would probably not be able to to walk in, uh,
you know, to their location, um, given that you're in Ohio,
but you'd be able to, you know, use their ATM
network to be able to access your money.
S5 (25:55):
Okay.
S6 (25:56):
To get the Treasury bills, I would how would I
do that?
S1 (25:59):
You would have to do it online. So the Treasury's
website is treasurydirect.gov. And that is the only way to
access the T-bills.
S6 (26:09):
Do they send them to you then?
S1 (26:12):
No, it would be electronic, but you'd be able to
log into the account and see them at any time.
S5 (26:18):
Um.
S6 (26:19):
That's frustrating to me. I wanted something more.
S1 (26:23):
You want something more tangible? Yeah. So then if you
want something local, the other option is just to kind
of drive around and see who has the highest yields
right now. I mean, you could start with local credit
unions right there in Ohio. Who's in your backyard that
has something that's appealing. But I'd be looking for something 5%.
But if you want to be able to walk in
and look at a teller, you're going to just kind
(26:44):
of have to do some homework there in your area
to see who has the most attractive interest rates.
S6 (26:50):
Yeah, I, I'm getting 4% on my money market right now.
S1 (26:55):
Okay. Yeah. Where is that at? Is it a brokerage firm?
S6 (27:00):
Um, it starts with a H.
S1 (27:03):
Okay. All right. Yeah. And that's not bad. I mean,
you know, it could be that you just, you know,
add it to that. But if you're wanting to spread
the risk and use multiple institutions, I think perhaps your
next best, best option is to to find something there locally.
But I think you're on the right track here, Linda.
I'm confident you'll find something there in your area. And, uh,
(27:23):
hopefully that was helpful to you. We appreciate your call today. Uh, Wichita,
Kansas is where Marty is located. Go ahead.
S8 (27:30):
Yeah, I've got, uh, some gold that I bought up
about five years ago, and it seems to be doing well,
but I've got about 30,000 in my savings account. It's
only drawing point for interest, and I'd like to put
it somewhere. I don't know if I need to just
(27:52):
go ahead and get some more gold, or I want
it to be a little more accessible than the gold.
They want you to leave it in there for ten
years to really make a difference. But, uh, like a
a short term, uh, whatever you call the, uh.
S1 (28:11):
Yeah. Well, you've got a couple of options. Um, you know,
if you want something that's more liquid. Yeah. I definitely
wouldn't add to your precious metal allocation. I would probably
be looking to either do a short term CD, or
you could do some treasury bills, just like I talked
to the last caller about. I mean, there are short
short term bills that are yielding about 5% today, somewhere
(28:34):
between four weeks up to a year. You could do
longer term, which are yielding between 4 and 4 and
a half. Between 2 and 10 years. And you could
look at that at treasurydirect.gov. You would have to be
able to, you know, be willing to do that online though.
Because that's really the only way to access those. Apart
from that, you know, high yield savings, you can do
a whole lot better than 0.04%. Um, but you'd have
(28:57):
to be willing to use an online bank. I don't
have any problem with that. I think they're just as secure,
especially if there's FDIC or NCUA or private insurance protecting them.
But you're going to have to do business, you know, online.
And if you're comfortable with that, um, you know, that
would be the next best option.
S8 (29:15):
Okay. Well, I think I learned a lot listening to
you talk to Linda. So, uh, I think I know
where I'm going to go now.
S1 (29:22):
Excellent.
S8 (29:23):
I appreciate you taking my call.
S1 (29:25):
Absolutely. Marty. Thanks for being on the program today, sir.
Lord bless you. You know, as we think about, uh,
managing God's money and aligning our financial decisions with our values.
As I said, more and more of our listeners are
wanting to make sure that whether it's their investments and
being in faith aligned investment products that are screened for
(29:45):
their values, or with a banking partner to make sure that,
you know, I'm with an institution that's not doing things
with my money that I don't agree with. That's where
a lot of our listeners are saying, yeah, I'm interested
in those options. And that's why we're delighted to partner
with our friends at Christian Community Credit Union. They've been
a trusted partner for a long, long time, and many
(30:06):
of our staff use them personally as well. If you
want to learn more about that, go to faith. That's faith.
When we come back, Jerry Bowyer stops by. We'll get
his take on the markets and the economy. Plus some
great questions holding as well. We'll talk to Victoria in
Ohio and perhaps your question. We'll be right back. Stay
(30:26):
with us. Well, his name is Jerry Boyer. He's our
resident economist, and he's our go to guy when we're
thinking about the markets and the economy. So what say you, Jerry?
How are we looking today here in the United States
of America?
S9 (30:46):
Well, we're we're not we're not bad. It's not a
golden age, but neither.
S1 (30:51):
Is it.
S9 (30:51):
The terrible stuff that the media told us to expect. Um,
I would say, uh, you know, stocks are near highs.
They're down today. Um, and I think we all know, uh,
why they're down today because the president tweeted, uh, so,
you know, when the president tweets about tariffs, then the
(31:12):
markets go down, right? Um, and so stocks go down
and bonds go up, uh, because people say, oh, you know,
I think I need to be a little bit afraid here. Uh,
and the dollar dropped, uh, and gold went up. So
it's that kind of standard. It's the trade war on again,
off again, on again, off again. But I will say
these moves are really small. right. The Dow's down you
(31:37):
know 6.63% right. The S&P is down a third of
a percent. The Nasdaq is down a fifth of a percent.
And I think what's happening is um market participants investors
are saying, you know yeah, that's what the president said today.
What's he going to say tomorrow? I mean, but probably
say the opposite. And what's he going to say Monday?
So it's almost like markets are only half listening to
(31:58):
him now. And I think the president needs to think
about that. Um, that if he says something and then
goes back on it, then goes back on his going
back and then goes back on his going back on
his going back eventually, he's not taking this seriously. Um,
and I'm not trying to be biased against him. I'm not.
I like a lot of his economic agenda, but it's
(32:19):
really hard to argue that this is good leadership, that
the president gets up and says, oh, well, we're going
to tariff everybody. No, we're just going to tariff China. No. Oh, China? Canada.
We're going to tariff them. Or maybe we'll make them
the 51st state. Maybe we'll do that. Um, you know,
I think we know he's joking about the 51st state,
but we don't know for sure that he's joking about
putting these big tax increases on them. Uh, he put
(32:42):
a big tax on copper, and you think, well, okay,
that's great. That's good for American copper miners. Yeah, but
most copper is not mined in America. Most copper is
mined outside of America. A lot of it is brought
into America. Right. So, you know, you look in your electronics,
you crack something open. You see copper wiring in there,
don't you? Well, that probably didn't come from the US, right?
(33:03):
It comes a lot of it comes from South America. Uh,
so if there's a tariff, a tax on importing copper. Well,
what does that do to American manufacturers who use copper
in the stuff that we build? Well, it increases the price.
I live in Pennsylvania. I live in western Pennsylvania, which
is clearly historically a manufacturing hub, and it's actually hurting
(33:26):
our manufacturers. So some idea that these tax hikes somehow
help American companies, they help some of them, but they
probably hurt more of them than they help on balance. Um,
and I think the president. It's time to stop. It's
time to get focused. You got your big, big, beautiful
bill passed. It really it's big. And it really has
some beautiful things to it, some things that will really help,
(33:47):
you know, help manufacturing. Let that do its job. We
don't need chaos tweeting tax hikes designed to protect American businesses.
Except they protect some and harm others. We don't need
telling the fed you need to pump more money into
the system for stimulus. We got our stimulus. Americans want
to get wealthier. Americans like to create. We like business.
(34:07):
We're good at it. We're probably better at it than
anyone in the world. Our taxes just got cut, which
gives us an incentive to unleash that and maybe put
the Truth Social and the Twitter account away for a
little while.
S1 (34:19):
Yeah. Well, said Jerry, uh, what about the the real
economy and how we're doing? I mean, clearly we've weathered these, uh,
very high inflationary pressures. We're not down to the Fed's target,
but we're certainly much lower than we were. By all accounts,
perhaps we've avoided a recession. Maybe we had. A minor recession.
(34:40):
We didn't know it, but overall the economy seems pretty healthy.
Would you agree?
S9 (34:45):
Yeah, I would say pretty healthy. Not very healthy. Um,
now that's to be expected. Now, I'm not going to
say that means we're in trouble because, well, we had
a trade war. All right. So we're mostly coming out
of that trade war. So I think things will get better.
We know for a fact that the first three months
of the year, the first quarter, in economic terms, they
called it the first quarter, um, that we contracted, um,
(35:09):
and we found out a couple of weeks ago we
contracted more than we thought. So we had negative growth
in the first quarter. Uh, second quarter. Well, we don't
know for sure. Um, I think the kind of the
range of predictions is we're going to have about 2% growth.
I would say 2% growth. Historically, we're 3 to 3.5%
growth economy. So that is not negative. It's not a recession.
(35:34):
I think we dodged a recession, but it's not what
we're capable of. We're capable of better than we're capable of,
better than half a percent shrinkage and 2% growth in
the next quarter. So I think that now there are limits.
The abortion revolution took 70 million people out of the workforce.
I mean, that's the least of the harms that it did.
But it did that. And that's a problem. We don't
(35:55):
seem to want immigrants replacing them. So we do have
a worker shortage. And that's going to be a limit
on us. And we do have a little bit of
a crisis of work ethic. There are a lot of
people who are able bodied, who aren't working, especially a
lot of young men. And then a lot of old
people say, see, in my day, guess what? A lot
of people took early retirement, too. There's a lot of
(36:16):
guys my age. There's a lot. I'm about to turn 63.
There's a lot of 63 year olds who aren't working to.
It's not all 20 somethings in there in the basement
playing video games. Um, so there's generally kind of a
work ethic problem. We got to overcome that. Um, and, uh,
we got to work out the immigration thing, which is
probably going to be some kind of compromise, deporting the
(36:37):
truly violent, uh, not deporting 30 million people or 20
million people in the midst of a worker shortage. That
doesn't seem to be really very smart. I don't know
what I just what Pandora's box. I just opened with that.
But I'm just speaking as an economist. You know, you
take 30 million people out of an economy. That's not
a good thing generally for the economy, especially if you
have a worker shortage. So if we make some good decisions,
(36:58):
some wise decisions, I think we can have a really
good economy. We can actually have that golden age. Um,
and I think it basically the big beautiful bill will
help with that. So get away from the tax hikes.
Even though we call them tariffs they're still tax hikes.
Stop telling the fed to debase the currency. That's that's
not the way to get prosperity. Uh get a reasonable
(37:19):
compromise on immigration. Uh, have a shift in work ethic
towards a biblical work ethic away from a we're just
animals who live for pleasure, and I don't need to work.
I won't. That's not what we're created for. We're created
to be productive and we can get our golden age.
I know that's a lot of ifs. Yeah. So think
of them as prayer requests.
S1 (37:38):
There you.
S9 (37:39):
Go. As well as conditionals.
S1 (37:41):
Jerry, you and I have been doing this a long time,
and it seems like for many years we're talking about
new highs apart from the fed cutting and expanding their
balance sheet. And yet we haven't seen that. I mean,
we had three rate cuts in 2024, but nothing since then.
It was 2020 before that. And so we're hitting these
new highs. And the fed is really not playing a
(38:03):
key role like they have previously.
S9 (38:05):
Yeah. Agreed. And so the story you know that I've
been telling you for years and it was true. You know,
and I think it still is true to some degree
is that most of what was going on in the
stock market, stock market was driven by fed activity. The
central bank was pumping money into markets and pushing them up.
That's not what the driver is now. The driver now
seems to be a shift towards more pro-growth economics, uh,
(38:28):
because the expectations for where the fed is going, the
fed is very much expected to hold Pat in the
next meeting. Yeah, I mean, it hasn't it's shifted a
half a percent towards the probability of a cut. Half
a percent. So not material you know in the meeting
later this month. Uh, and then we have the September meeting.
I'm looking at the data right here. Um, probably one
(38:52):
small cut is what it's saying, and that's what it's
been saying for a while. So, um. Yeah, it's not
the fed that's doing this. It is that we just
cut taxes. We just did something. This didn't get a
lot of attention. But this is really important that a
tax cut. But in taxation there's something called depreciation which
is let's say I build a factory and it's expected
(39:12):
the factory is going to last 30 years. So I
spend $10 million on a factory. Um, now up front,
I don't get to deduct the $10 million from my taxes,
even though it was a cost. It's supposed to be
an expense, right? Corporate income taxes are your revenue minus
your expense. That's an expense. They say. They say, well,
you're only you're going to use it a little bit
at a time over the next 30 years. So we're
going to make you spread out that deduction over the
(39:35):
next 30 years. It's really hostile to manufacturing. Well the
big beautiful bill changed that. And there's a lot of expensing.
Now that's going to be great. I mean it's going
to be it's going to be safe to build factories
again and not have to put off the tax. The
tax deduction. Except if you think on Tuesday the president
is going to say oh we're going to tariff rare
(39:57):
earth minerals. And then everybody who built a factory that
uses rare earth minerals says, oh, well, I guess we're
just going to have to tear this down because it
doesn't make sense anymore. So we need to get rid
of some of that uncertainty. But the big issue isn't
that I think the president's going to calm down. The
big issue is the tax tax code is no longer
punishing that kind of fixed investment. And I know a
(40:17):
lot of people talk about how well some, you know,
coders and tech companies did really well and manufacturing didn't. Oh, well,
that's you know, that's how the cookie crumbles. No, no, no.
Tax policy caused that. If I pay somebody to write
a program this month or this year, I deduct their
their salary this year. If I pay somebody to build
(40:39):
a factory, I deduct their salary gradually over the next
30 years. That's a thumb on the scale for tech
and media and knowledge workers, against people who actually work
with things that weigh something.
S1 (40:51):
Yeah, boy, that's well said, Jerry. And makes a lot
of sense. All right. Hey, we've got just a few
seconds left here. Give us 30s on some of the
work you've been doing related to AI and corporate engagement.
S9 (41:03):
Well, the big item for us this year is going
to be AI is going to is going to be
used to bring to kind of mainline child pornography. And
they're going to try to get around the law by
by creating fake child pornography. So the idea will be, hey,
there's no children there. They're made up. They're deepfake children.
They're not real. Yeah, yeah, but the person watching them
(41:25):
is real. And the person watching them who then says, well,
that's not enough, because that's what pornography is. It's a
down payment on something worse later. That's not enough. They're
going to look for real children. So we need to
take this seriously, and we're going to have a lot
of engagement with companies this year saying you don't want
that money. That's blood money. And in the end, it's
going to hurt you worse with lawsuits and regulation. If
(41:48):
you if you try to make money off of deep
fake child pornography.
S1 (41:52):
Wow. Wow. Man, that is an incredible, uh, issue that
you need to tackle. I'm so glad that you're taking
that fight to the biggest boardrooms in America. Jerry. We're
grateful for you, my friend. Thanks for being here.
S9 (42:04):
And for you.
S1 (42:05):
All right, that's Jerry Boyer. He's our resident economist. He
joins us each Friday with his thoughts and analysis. Big
thanks to my team today. I certainly couldn't do this
without them. They are amazing and we're so thankful. Faith
and finance is a partnership between Moody Radio and Faith
by the team today. Tara, Jim, Rihanna and Dan. We'll
see you next week.