Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
S1 (00:08):
When should we start teaching? Hi, I'm Rob West. It's
a common question, but the answer depends on what you're
teaching and when your child is ready. One thing's for
sure it's never too early to start. Today, I'll share
age appropriate lessons to help your kids become wise and
faithful stewards. And then it's on to your calls at
800 525 7000. This is faith and finance. Live. Biblical
(00:32):
wisdom for your financial journey. Many parents have heard Proverbs
22 six train up a child in the way he
should go. Even when he is old, he will not
depart from it. That includes training children to understand God's
design for managing money with wisdom, generosity, and purpose. But
here's something that might shock you. A study cited from
(00:55):
Purdue University found that many of our lifelong money habits
are already set by age seven. That's a sobering thought.
By the time your child is tying their own shoes,
they're also forming beliefs about spending, saving, and giving. So
the earlier you start, the better. Even children as young
as 3 to 5 can learn that buying something requires money,
(01:18):
and that money is earned through hard work. This is
the foundation for everything that follows. Start teaching the difference
between needs and wants. A house, clothing and food are
needs that cereal with a cartoon character on the box?
That's a want and a great conversation starter. As you shop,
ask your child to name which items are needs and
(01:39):
which are wants. Then remind them that God provides what
we need and blesses us with more than we deserve.
It's also a good time to begin using the three
jar method one jar for spending, one for saving, and
one for giving. When your child gets birthday money or
even a small allowance, help them divide it. then let
them drop their giving portion into the offering plate each week.
(02:01):
That simple act connects their generosity to worship. As children
grow up to ages 6 to 10, they can handle
more responsibility. Give them small chores tied to a modest allowance.
If they complete the job, they earn the money. If not,
the allowance waits. This teaches accountability and work ethic. Introduce
(02:22):
short term savings goals too. If they want something that
costs more than they have, help them calculate how many
weeks it will take to save for it. A sticker
chart or tracker can help them visualize progress. Budgeting also
comes into play. Give them a few dollars and let
them plan how to spend it on snacks for the week.
This helps them see what the author, Ron Blue, often says.
(02:44):
You always have more choices than money. Keep reinforcing generosity
as well. Encourage them to give to causes they care about.
Ask why they want to give and help them see
how giving reflects God's heart between the ages of 11
and 15. Children may start babysitting, mowing lawns or performing
other tasks for neighbors. Help them set larger savings goals.
(03:06):
Maybe for a bike or a special trip. Consider opening
a custodial savings account or using a kid friendly money app.
Walk through statements with them and celebrate their milestones. Let
them manage more of their money and make decisions both
wise and not so wise, while you're still there to
guide them. This is a good time to introduce the
concept of delayed gratification. If they want to buy something online,
(03:31):
encourage them to wait a few days, compare options, and
pray before making a purchase. The lesson. Patience often leads
to better decisions. When your child gets to between 16
and 18 years old, they are often in the time
of their life when they're working part time jobs that
opens new doors. Now's the time to build a formal
(03:51):
budget with income and categories for saving, spending and giving.
Saving for a car or college creates a vision for
the future. Considering offering a savings match. If they save $500,
you match it. This model is how a 401 K
match might work later in life. Introduce the basics of
investing to let them research a company and buy a
(04:14):
fractional share through a custodial account. Remind them that investing
is long term. Markets rise and fall, but faithfulness builds
wealth over time. If they've earned enough income, you might
even open a Roth IRA. This is also when they
begin to understand the connection between money and trust. Reinforce
that their worth isn't tied to their net worth, and
(04:37):
that all we have is a gift from God to
be managed for his glory. No matter your child's age,
the goal is the same to raise a faithful steward
who knows how to earn, manage, give, and grow what
God provides. You don't have to be perfect. You just
have to be present. Keep the conversation going. And don't
forget this is more than just a financial lesson. It's
(05:00):
a spiritual one too. We want them to have financial literacy,
but we also want them to understand God's heart, to
understand the counsel of Scripture, that they're stewards. He's the owner,
and everything we have is to be managed faithfully for
his glory and his purposes. Hey, your calls are next.
800 525 7000. We'll be right back.
S2 (05:33):
The opinions offered during this program represent the personal or
professional opinions of the participants, given for informational purposes only.
Any information provided is not intended to replace advice from
a financial, medical, legal, or other professional who understands your
specific situation.
S1 (05:57):
Thanks for joining us today on Faith and Finance Live
I'm Rob West. Looking forward to taking your calls and
questions today. That number to call to get in on
the conversation is 800 525 7000. Again, that's 800 525 7000.
We'll look forward to wrestling with the things going on
in your financial life today. Uh, also coming up in
(06:18):
our final segment today, Jerry Boyer stops by. It's a Friday.
He joins us with his market commentary. And, uh, well,
the S&P 500 posts its fifth straight record close this week,
powered by solid earnings and more resolution on the tariffs.
We'll get Jerry's take on that. And what does that
(06:39):
point to in terms of where the market might go
from here? Also, how is that economy holding up all
of that? In our final segment today with our resident economist,
Jerry Bowyer. You won't want to miss it. Uh, we
will be taking your phone calls as well. Lines are
filling up, but we've got room for you at the moment. 805,
two five 7000. Before we head to those phones in
the news today, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to
(07:01):
hold interest rates steady when it meets on Wednesday, July 31st.
That's this coming Wednesday. Uh, that disappoints. Hopes for a
summer rate cut. Inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target,
making policymakers hesitant to reduce rates too soon. The fed
funds rate is currently five and a quarter to 5.5%.
(07:23):
That's the highest level in over two decades. Borrowers are
still feeling the impact. Credit card interest rates remain above 20%.
Last I saw, I believe the average is around 22
and mortgage rates hovering at that 7% mark. Savers continue
to benefit from high yields on money markets, CDs and
high yield often between 4 and 5%. Wall Street is
(07:45):
closely watching for signs of a cut in September or November,
but some analysts are saying it could be December. The
fed is also keeping a close eye on job growth
and consumer spending, which remains surprisingly strong despite tighter credit conditions.
Expect those high rates to linger unless inflation softens significantly.
(08:08):
The downside to all this more cost to borrowing. So
you're going to want to try to dump debt, which
means dialing back lifestyle, paying off debt as quick as
you can. You are going to want to prioritize savings.
You're getting rewarded for it. So take advantage of it.
By the way, our friends at Christian Community Credit Union
are wonderful partners. They have been for a long time,
and more and more of our listeners are saying, I
(08:29):
want to partner with a banking institution, in this case
a credit union, that shares my values. So I know
I'm not supporting something on, you know, in an unintended
way that is going to profit an organization that's misaligned
with my values. But even more than that, you know,
a part of every dollar that goes to Kcu ultimately
(08:49):
finds its way into Christian ministries that are on the
heart of God around the world. They're a wonderful organization.
They're in the midst of a potential merger with Adelphi,
which would make the two organizations together the largest Christian
credit union in the nation. That gives them more stability,
more deposits, streamlined staff, which allows them to take the
(09:12):
best of class in terms of technology and app and
all of those things. It's really exciting. I think the
the implications of these two coming together, by the way,
Kcu is making available to faithful listeners with the code
word faith fi up to a $400 bonus when you
open an account, and they've got 5% on the first
(09:32):
$5,000 with their Harvest Savings account. You can learn more
about all of that when you go to Faith. Fi.
That's faith. All right. Let's dive into those questions there.
They're coming in quick. We're going to go to Pennsylvania. Nicole,
you'll be first up today. How can I help?
S3 (09:50):
Hi. I am interested in contributing to our household income.
I am a stay at home mom and just want
to help. And my husband recently had the idea to
do licensing of some sort as a backup. But our
finances are very few. We're kind of house poor, pretty much.
We had to purchase a house a year and a
half ago out of an emergency situation, and um, thankfully
(10:14):
we got in, but now it feels like we cannot
meet half the bills. We're making it work, by God's grace,
but it is so tight. And so we're wondering what's
what's worth the investment? Is it worth me going out,
getting a job away from my little kids? I have
three small children? Or is it better to do more
of like a private license where we have more control?
(10:35):
And is that worth the investment?
S1 (10:37):
Yeah, yeah. Well, it's a great question and I know
one that you want to take great care and prayer
in answering because, well, it's important. I mean, I love
your desire to be able to to be present and
to be there as a stay at home mom. That's great. Uh,
you know, as a dad, I valued the time Julie
could spend with our kids, especially in those early formative years,
(11:00):
just really pouring into them. I also recognize that we
can do that in a healthy way with, you know,
both parents working outside the home. And the great news
is there's more opportunities than ever for that to happen
just based on flexible, skills based work that's available often
inside the home, that allows you to kind of do
(11:21):
both and have a little bit more cushion cushion to
be able to use money as a tool to deepen
relationships and take a family vacation from time to time,
and maybe invest in a college education, uh, maybe just
cover the bills because things are more expensive than ever
and yet still be present. Uh, you know, as a
stay at home parent, Parents. You know, mom or dad? Um.
(11:43):
By leveraging some of the post pandemic flexibility that comes
with work from home. So, you know, whether that's freelancing
in an area like writing or bookkeeping or graphic design
or virtual assistants, those things can be done, you know,
during nap time or evenings, um, teaching or tutoring. Online
(12:04):
platforms like Outschool or private tutoring allow you to teach
from home in an area you're passionate about. Um, you know,
real estate can work, although it's pretty demanding outside the
home just in terms of you being, you know, on
call for negotiations and showings and open houses. And so
that's not going to give you as much flexibility. But
I know, you know, a lot of, uh, stay at
(12:27):
home moms in particular have added that where, you know,
they love they love real estate and love the home
buying process and have made that a career, you know, on,
on the side. So, you know, you could look at
a home based business as well. I mean, do you
have a particular skill set in crafts that you could
sell from home or, you know, products starting a small
(12:47):
service business like meal prep or organizing? So I think
the key is, first of all, to recognize your role
at home has eternal value. And yet we also recognize,
you know, if you can find something that intersects with
how God has wired you and your skills and abilities
and a passion where you can do something that adds
(13:08):
to the family finances, that's great. And even small contributions
done with faithfulness can bless the family budget. So I
think it begins with you and your husband making this
a matter of prayer, asking the Lord to give you wisdom.
James one five. If we lack wisdom, the Lord says,
just ask and he'll give it to us. Secondly, I
would look to hone in on what are those unique
(13:30):
skills and abilities you know God has given you. I
just rattled off, you know, a ton of them. And
you might say, no graphic design. That's not me, but bookkeeping. Yeah,
I could do that. Or virtual assistants or, you know,
I love organizing or meal prep, and I could do that,
you know, for another family or for some families I know, um,
one of the our chief administrative officer here at Kingdom Advisors, uh,
(13:54):
his wife has created a cookie making business. Uh, and
it's become quite a thing. She's doing an incredible job,
and they've added quite a bit to their family finances. So, uh,
giving you a lot of ideas here. I want to
hear your thoughts on them. I'm up against a break,
so I'm going to let you think about it. When
we come back, I'll get your thoughts and we'll talk
about where you go from here. Joyce. Coming your way
(14:16):
as well in New Hampshire, Tanya in Chicago and Misa,
you're also in Chicago. Looking forward to talking to you.
We'll be right back. Great to have you with us
today on Faith in finance live. We've got some lines open.
We're taking your calls and questions today on anything financial.
(14:39):
That number 800 525 7000. You can call right now
before the break. We were talking to Nicole in Pennsylvania.
She's a stay at home mom, and she'd like to
try to contribute some to the family income. Uh, just
so they can have a little more cushion. And we
talked about some ideas that she might consider as she's
thinking about perhaps working part time, maybe even inside the home.
(15:01):
Did anything Nicole, that I shared resonate with you?
S3 (15:06):
Yes, it sure did. I have a slow starting stationary business,
but I haven't been able to get it off the ground. Really?
With time constraints.
S1 (15:16):
Yeah, yeah. Well, I recognize that. And, you know, that's
the challenge, is that starting a small home based business
sounds simple. And yet, you know, it just takes time
because you've got to usually make a small investment. And,
you know, depending on what it is you're doing, uh,
you know, it can take time to build your clientele.
It can seem like, am I ever going to make
(15:36):
any money? I think that the key is I would
just be careful as you get into this, knowing that
first of all, you need to vet any opportunity, you know,
be wary of somebody who's, you know, promoting something that
requires a big upfront investment, know what the risks are
and kind of what they're expecting of you. But I
would say if you can do something, uh, you know,
(15:59):
on your own, tapping into a skill set and a
passion you already have. Start simple, make consistent steps. And,
you know, I think that can go a long way
to developing something that could be meaningful over time. You're
going to have to stick with it than you think.
But I think in the end, you can perhaps accomplish
both goals being fully present, uh, but then also having
(16:20):
something that, you know, you could use to supplement that income,
perhaps without even leaving home. Nicole, we appreciate your call today. And, uh,
hopefully that was helpful to you. Let's go to New Hampshire. Hi, Joyce.
How can I help?
S4 (16:32):
Um. Hi, Rob. thank you so much for taking my call,
I appreciate it. I listened to your program often, and
I took one of your suggestions about reading you, The
Splitting Heirs. And one of the things that was intriguing
to me, or one of the chapters was about giving,
and I have left a considerable considerable amount in my
(16:56):
trust and my will. But I like the fact of
giving now, um, because these organizations might not even exist
by the time I die. I am 74, but they
might be gone. That's right. And I already am giving
monthly through my Schwab charitable account. But I'm thinking I
(17:16):
would like to leave a substantial amount. I give, you
know what, 150 something like that to four organizations a month,
which is not much. And I really am thinking of
giving a, you know, something like 200 grand or something
like that to these organizations. What are the tax? You know,
(17:39):
I mean, if I move all that, I'm going to
have huge capital gains.
S1 (17:43):
Yes, yes. Yeah.
S4 (17:46):
So how would I.
S1 (17:47):
So yeah. So this is in a taxable investment account
right now is that right?
S4 (17:53):
Well no I have I have a small I have
a small charitable account. I have you know, most of
my money is just in Schwab. And I have a
small charitable account that as I say, these organizations, I
give 150 a month just right, you know, to them.
But I'm thinking after reading your book that it might
be better if I really give them a substantial boost,
(18:17):
but I don't know how to do that without, you know,
paying huge capital gains myself.
S1 (18:24):
Yes, I love that. And I want to talk about
just that idea in a moment, but just so I
can make sure I understand the mechanics of it in
terms of what you're thinking. If you were, let's say, Joyce,
to make a $200,000 gift to a ministry or a
few ministries, where would those funds come from? What type
of account and is the money currently invested in stocks, bonds,
(18:47):
mutual funds, things like that?
S4 (18:49):
Yes it is. Stocks, bonds, mutual funds. I have, um,
I have a portfolio at Schwab, and just a small
portion of it is the charitable. But I have I
have a trust fund there, a mutual fund. Um, um, IRA,
I have, I have several. So it's all in stocks funds.
It's not cash.
S1 (19:09):
Yeah. Okay, great. Yeah. There are some very tax efficient
ways to do that. Uh, if it's a taxable account
that we're talking about where this is not an IRA,
but this is after tax money, whereby if you were
to sell the investments, you would generate a capital gain
because you'd have, you know, you'd be realizing the appreciation. Well,
(19:30):
the way to do that is you make the gift
before you sell. So you'd actually transfer the shares of
stock or the shares of the mutual fund directly to
the ministry. You get the full deduction for the amount,
the market value of the amount you transferred, and then
the ministry sells it. So that doesn't generate any capital
(19:51):
gain for you because you didn't sell it. You gave
it away before you sold it, which is a wonderful
opportunity that the tax law allows. If it's money from
your IRA because you're older than 70.5, you can do
that by way of a qualified charitable distribution. And so
with the QCD for 2025, the limit is, I believe, 108,000,
(20:18):
if I'm not mistaken, that you could do from your
IRA for this tax year and that would not be
recognized as income to you because it went straight to
the ministry. So the only way to get money out
of an IRA without ever paying tax on it is
through a qualified charitable distribution. So these are two tools,
(20:39):
depending on whether it's a pre-tax account or an after
tax account, that would allow you to do exactly what
you're talking about. Now, let me just affirm this idea
that you got from Ron Blue's book book, Splitting Heirs,
which is fabulous. I love Ron's line in that book.
You'll probably remember it where he says, do your giving
while you're living, so you're knowing where it's going. And
you know, that's something he's taught for decades. And I
(21:02):
think it's a great idea, because if we've got money
that we can get into the kingdom now, why wait?
And to your last point, having an advisor who can
walk alongside us to help you with the tax side,
but also to affirm your idea, you see, if if
it's not an advisor with a kingdom mindset, they might
(21:22):
actually discourage it because remember, they get paid based on
the assets under management. But with a Kingdom Advisor, certified
Kingdom advisor, they know that the ultimate goal is to
get it into God's economy because it's far more valuable
than their than it is sitting here in your investment account,
and they can help you determine how much is enough,
(21:42):
which then gives you the confidence and the peace of
mind to give it away. I love it. Joyce, let's
talk a bit more off the air. Stay right there.
I'm so glad you're listening today on Faith and finance
live here on Moody Radio. Before the break, we were
(22:03):
talking to Joyce in New Hampshire. She recently read Ron
Blue's book Splitting Heirs, The Classic on wealth transfer from
a biblical perspective. And it got her thinking. Wait a minute.
Perhaps I have more than I will ever spend, and
maybe I ought to get it into circulation in God's
economy now, rather than waiting for it to be given
(22:24):
away at my death. What could be done with it today?
And Joyce, as I was sharing, first of all, I
love that because that's really the heart behind what we
do on this program every day is to encourage God's
people to see money as a tool to accomplish God's purposes.
Now there's a balance between saving and giving, and we
should put some aside for the future. But I think
far too many people listen to this show every day,
(22:47):
have more money than they will ever need, and it's
just going to sit there waiting perhaps decades, to get
into circulation in God's economy when they could do it
right now. Is that the situation you're in?
S4 (22:59):
That it definitely is. Yes. Yes. It is just sitting there. Yep.
And those organizations may not be there. So I would
rather know where it's going now.
S1 (23:09):
Yeah. Exactly. Right. And you know, I think the other
piece is having an advisor who could walk alongside you
in that is key, you know, and that's why we
talk so much about the Certified Kingdom advisor here on
the program, because these are men and women who are
very good at what they do as advisers, but they
also understand the heart of God in Scripture. And, you know,
there's a conversation to be had if you understand that
(23:30):
money is a tool to bring God glory and accomplish
his purposes now. Nothing wrong with enjoying it. It's part
of God's design. Nothing wrong with saving it. That's prudent.
But we also need to find the balance in how
much should we be giving and what does it look
like to give sacrificially. And, you know, perhaps we ought
to do more giving now. The challenge is, frankly, that,
(23:52):
you know, the way the financial services industry is built.
An advisor gets paid on what's called assets under management.
So if a $200,000 gift leaves the account, that's 200,000
less than the advisor could charge fees on. Now, I'm
not saying every secular advisor is going to discourage giving,
but I am saying, you know, having an advisor who
understands God's Word in a biblical worldview, I think will
(24:14):
walk alongside you to encourage you, perhaps even in, you know,
challenge you to do some giving that you actually feel.
So we can get more into God's economy right now.
But give me your thoughts on that.
S4 (24:28):
No, that's exactly what I would be looking for, because
I just I don't think my advisor is going to
advise me to to spend all that I would like
to spend right now that I would like to give,
that I don't think is necessary in my pocket.
S1 (24:44):
Yeah. That's right. Well, it's the it's the question how
much is enough that we all need to wrestle with.
And at the end of the day, that's between you
and the Lord on your knees. But having somebody who
can guide you in a thoughtful process that's both prayerful and,
you know, well planned, uh, in terms of what you
could realistically need for the rest of your life and
what's truly excess that could be given away, I think,
(25:07):
would be invaluable. So, uh. That's fabulous. Joyce, listen, you
can head to our website, faith. Com click find a Professional,
and you can connect with some certified Kingdom advisors there
in New Hampshire. I'd also love to get your information,
because I want to send you a few things just
to encourage you, and I'd be happy to touch base
with you after, and make sure you get connected to
(25:27):
somebody who can walk alongside you. All right.
S4 (25:30):
That would be wonderful. Thank you so much I appreciate it.
God bless.
S1 (25:33):
You're welcome. God bless you and stay on the line.
Thanks for your call today. Let's go to Chicago. Hi, Tanya.
How can I help?
S5 (25:40):
Hi. Hi, Mr. Rohn, it's so good to hear your voice.
I've been around a long time since the days of
Larry Burkett. I wanted to tell you quickly. Thank you
for your nice staff that you have in the back.
S1 (25:51):
Oh, they are amazing, aren't they? Yes, ma'am.
S5 (25:53):
Yes they are. Yeah. I just quickly I, I just
wanted to ask, um, is your credit adversely affected, um,
when you pay off your credit cards early? Um, or
should I be, um, would I still wanted to keep
the credit cards open? But what I found is two
(26:17):
of my revolving charge cards. Like, I don't want to
name the companies, but two of the upper ones or
whatever you want to call them. Um, they, like, put
a block on my account, I guess, because I wasn't
using it. I was not using it card because I
didn't have a ballot. And so I wanted to know,
should I just close the account if I don't need them?
(26:42):
Or I guess two questions. Is my credit being affected?
And the second one is in a case like that,
going forward, should I just close a card altogether if
I don't find any use for it?
S1 (26:58):
Yes. Great question. And this comes up often. You're exactly right.
Oftentimes cards are closed for inactivity. And here's why. The
the issuing bank only has so much money they can
extend out in a line of credit. And if you're
not using it they're not charging you interest. They're not
charging you potentially late fees. They're not making any money.
(27:19):
They'd rather pull that back and extend it to somebody
else who's actually going to use it so they can
make some money off of it. And so that's why
they close those accounts. Now, should you be proactive and
get rid of cards that you're not using? I think
that makes sense. I'd probably limit that to maybe two
cards every six months. It is going to temporarily pull
your credit score down. Not by much. But the reason
(27:42):
is it's going to change your utilization ratio, not radio ratio. Um,
the reason being, uh, whatever balances you're carrying are a
certain percentage of the total credit that's been extended to you. Well,
if you close some accounts and now those cards are
no longer as a part of your total available credit,
(28:03):
any balances you're carrying are now a larger percentage of
the credit that's remaining that's now available to you. And
that when that ratio goes up, your score comes down.
The other reason is the length of credit history facts
into your score. So if you close an older account,
it could reduce the average age of your accounts. That's
(28:23):
another possible ding. But keep in mind it's probably only
going to be, you know, 20 or 30 points. And
at the end of the day, if you're not out
there looking to borrow some money to buy a car
or looking to get a mortgage because you're house shopping,
it really doesn't matter if your score moves around, you know,
30 or 40 points. And I'd much rather you get
(28:43):
rid of these cards and no longer have them available
to be compromised fraudulently. And if you have to temporarily
for a few months, see your credit score dip slightly.
That's of little concern to me. Does that make sense, though?
S5 (28:59):
Yes, sir. I just I thought it was related to money.
I kind of figured they were saying, well, she's not
using them, so we're going to shut them down. But
the other thing is that I'm connected with one of these,
you know, Credit Karma things. And they say, well, it's
not a bad thing, but I just rather get it
from you guys that, um. And then one other question
I just had quickly, is there someone, um, within your
(29:23):
repertoire in my area that I could just because I
do have plans and, and I want to make sure
my credit score is, you know, is not compromised too much. Um,
but I don't want to be forced into buying a
dress that I don't need either. You know what I mean?
So is there someone that, um, in your group that
(29:46):
could help teach me about monitoring my credit score?
S1 (29:51):
Yes. Um, we have what are called certified Christian financial Counselors,
and I would be happy to offer one free session.
We'll cover the cost of it with one of our
certified Christian financial counselors, who can give you some education
about credit scores and reading your credit report. Would that
be helpful?
S5 (30:11):
Be definitely helpful.
S1 (30:13):
Awesome. We'll do it. All right. So you stay on
the line. We're going to get your name and number.
We're going to get one of those certified Christian financial
counselors in touch with you. And they'll take one virtual
session and do a little education for you on credit
scores and credit reports. And hopefully that'll help you. We
appreciate your call today. Tonya. Thanks for being on the program.
Jerry Bowyer is coming up next, so don't go anywhere.
(30:35):
We're going to get his take on the markets and
the economy. By the way, if you love the program,
you want to support our work, consider becoming a faith
fi partner. Just head to faith and learn about all
the great ways we can bless you as a Faith
five partner. We'll be right back. I'm so glad you're
(30:56):
listening today on Faith and finance live here on Moody Radio. Well,
it's Friday and it's our final segment, which means Jerry
Boyer is here. Jerry, another all time high. I mean,
I think this is the fifth one in a row.
And despite all the things that happened in the first
six months of this year, not the least of which
was bombing the nuclear facilities there in Iran. And we've
(31:18):
got tariffs and the talk of trade wars. Here we
are with record closes. Does that surprise you?
S6 (31:24):
No, it really doesn't. I think when we talked at
the time about the bombing of the facilities in Iran,
I made the argument that on balance, this is a
risk diminisher not a risk intensifier. Um, though, I mean,
like in the short run, you drop a dozen bunker
busters on a nuclear facility. Uh, markets are bound to
(31:45):
get a little perturbed. Um, but, yeah, you know, really,
it's taking risk off the table more than it's putting
risk on the table. And once they digested that, then
we got back on track. Um, and I think the
analogy I used at the time is imagine that instead
of the U.S. dropping these bunker busters on the facility
in Iran, instead, the news had been Iran has successfully
(32:07):
tested a nuclear weapon. You know, they blew up some
island in the Pacific. Then what would markets be doing?
You know, they would be acting a lot more strongly. Um, so,
you know, that doesn't surprise me. I mean, I think, um,
what we're seeing here is that the end of the
trade war, largely the end of the trade war. There's
still an occasional stray tweet. Uh, you know, that kind
(32:30):
of flies across our screen. But in general, he's gotten
down to much lower tariff rates. Um, and in situations with, um,
you know, much more stability. Markets have digested that, but
they've also digested the big beautiful bill, which I call
now the large, lovely law because it passed. You remember
we all remember schoolhouse Rock. It's not just a bill.
(32:53):
You're a law now. Congratulations. Um.
S1 (32:57):
Uh, wait a minute. Say that again. The large, lovely law.
I love that, Jerry.
S7 (33:01):
Lovely law.
S6 (33:04):
Uh, and it's mostly good. It's not all good, but
it's mostly good. Yeah. And, um, you know, there's some
real technological developments going on with AI, and I think
that's helpful. The president has moved towards a deregulatory agenda
on energy. Now, you know, that's very helpful. Uh, because
those eyes I mean, they eat a lot of electricity. Um,
(33:26):
and they're not getting it from windmills, let me tell you. Um,
they're getting it from oil, gas and coal and nuclear increasingly. Uh,
so not the not the bomb type, but the, you know,
atoms for peace, as Eisenhower used to say. Uh, so,
you know, those those those things are lining up pretty well.
What what I like saying to you is the normal
story that you and I have been going on for like,
(33:47):
five years. Here is the markets move when the fed
is going to move. Not not anymore. The fed is
the markets are the futures markets are saying Powell is
not going to give in to Trump to this political pressure.
Um so they're not likely to change. Maybe we could
get one small rate cut. You know, in the next year.
(34:07):
Not much. So it's not easy money that's driving this
stock market right now. It's the prospect of a better economy,
which is why it's not just the mag seven or whatever.
You know, we have the S&P 500 is going up
more than the than the than the Nasdaq. And that
Nasdaq is more speculative. So when it's easy money, tech
stocks tend to go up more because they're more speculative.
(34:28):
When it's actual growth, the you know, the rally tends
to be broader. And recently the rally has been more
broad than just the the big growth tech stocks. So
in general, I think we have a pretty good economic outlook.
Could we be better? Absolutely. Um, and uh, but we're
doing a lot better, I think, than we were before. Now,
if someone could just keep the president's phone away from
(34:50):
him so that he doesn't say, I think, you know,
we I think we need to tariff the sun. You know,
it's dumping all this free Light on people. The light
bulb companies are hurt by that. You know, our beautiful
light bulb companies can't compete with that. Uh, unless he
(35:11):
does something like that. Uh, um, then, um, you know,
then I think, uh, maybe we can have a pretty,
pretty smooth glide path. Now we got a lot of debt.
We're not out of that. A lot of it turns
over in the next four years. So I have not
changed my view that pretty good chance we're sailing towards
a debt crisis. Kind of like the European debt crisis
(35:32):
of 15 years ago. But I think this buys us
a little time. Maybe.
S1 (35:36):
Yeah. That's helpful. Jerry. Jerry, I think as of, you know,
earlier this week, the S&P 500, the p e ratio
was at 24 times earnings. Yeah. As we look out
over the next decade, does does that concern you in
terms of how richly priced the market is right now?
S6 (35:52):
Oh absolutely. Yes it does. Uh, it is really hard
to make a lot more headway from those levels. And
by the way, that's not 24 for the Nasdaq. That's
not 24 for you know that's the S&P 500. That's
a pretty broad base stocks. So that's I mean you
know so that's not just like a tech bubble that's
across the board. And that is worrisome. So people might
(36:13):
wonder well why are we there. Um, you know because
we're not goosing the economy with easy money. And the
answer is because the US looks better than the rest
of the world. So that money is flowing away from
the rest of the world to the United States, because
we have pretty pro-growth policies. Europe is moving away from
pro-growth policies. We're moving towards pro-growth policies. So one of
(36:35):
the things that people don't realize is in the late 90s,
when we had that that bubble in tech stocks, people say, well,
that was easy money or that was ever that was
just irrational exuberance or greed. Well that's silly. Why do
I not think it's greed? Because we're always greedy. We
weren't just greedy in 1999. We're greedy in 1995. We
were greedy in 2000. We're always greedy. Greed doesn't explain
(36:55):
any stock market valuation because greed is a universal in
human life. One of the things explained, explained it is
that you had a debt crisis in the East and
in emerging markets and in South America, so money flowed here. Uh,
so we were better than Mexico. We were better than
the Seven Tigers. They were in a crisis. And I
think you have the same thing now with Europe. Um,
(37:16):
and even with China. China is looking pretty risky. So
money is flowing here, but it's going to be really
hard to go much further from here. Uh, so that's why,
you know, you and I just did a call with, uh,
with Bob Dahl from Crossmark. He and I have been
on target with this. You probably need to internationalize some
of that money, because the valuations in the emerging market
(37:37):
are a lot more attractive than the valuations here.
S1 (37:40):
Yeah. Well said Jerry. Uh, yesterday was slightly awkward as
we watched the president stand next to the Chairman Powell
and give him a little pat on the back about, uh,
interest rates, but seems like he's going to hold steady and, uh,
you know, perhaps, uh, well, we certainly I know you
don't want to go back to the fiscal policy of
of the last decade.
S6 (38:00):
No I don't. And I don't think that the fed
should bail out the overspending of the Congress and the president.
They're spending too much. Like I said, the large, lovely law,
it's it's it's most it's mostly lovely, but it's also
really large. And and the largeness is the non lovely part. Uh,
so I just don't think that we all ought to
pay for that with added inflation. And so if the
(38:23):
president is saying hey listen you need to lower interest rates,
what he's really saying is you need to create money
out of thin air and buy all the bonds that
we're going to sell you. We create money out of
thin air and lend it to us because we can't
control our spending. Sorry, I don't I don't think we
ought to do that. Um, and so I think Powell
ought to basically stay pat. And the markets are saying
(38:43):
he's going to stay pat. And if the president really
believes in his growth plan, then let it play out.
We don't need monetary stimulus. Uh, if we've got good
growth policies in place, what's the point of goosing the economy. Yeah.
We don't we don't need we don't need, uh, caffeinated economy.
We gave we gave it vitamins and protein. Let it grow. Um,
(39:04):
and if the president is pushing for that easy money,
I don't understand how that's consistent with the idea that
the policy is good. Uh, so I think the president
should lay off. Uh, now, I know the president is
critical of these cost overruns with the fed, and I
think that's kind of an attempt to kind of pressure Powell. Uh,
I wouldn't use it as pressure. I would just say, uh,
(39:24):
you didn't earn a new business. You didn't earn a
new building, you know, like coffees for, you know, for closers, right?
You you make up no new building for you. You
you fed economists. You need to work in the basement
because you gave a stagflation for the second. You know,
(39:44):
that we haven't had since the 1970s. And if they say, well,
wait a minute, these cost overruns aren't our fault. Uh,
because that was, you know, we just had the price
of everything went up. You know, commodity price and building
building materials went up. I said, well, what do you mean,
not your fault? Why does it cost of building materials
go up? Hey, catch up with the rest of us fed.
All our housing prices went up. Under your misguided policy.
(40:08):
Your housing prices went up too. We couldn't afford a
new house. You shouldn't get a new house. Uh, and
I wouldn't, you know, give in even if the. I
think the building should go to someplace else. I put
it out on the market, put it on eBay, um,
and see if somebody can turn it into a nice
hotel or apartment buildings or maybe a. Oh, an AI
data center. Uh, you know, something that's actually profitable, that
(40:31):
creates wealth rather than destroys it.
S1 (40:33):
Or pay down the national debt with the proceeds.
S8 (40:36):
I'll sell it to something productive and.
S6 (40:38):
Pay down the national debt with the proceeds.
S1 (40:41):
Jerry, we've got just, uh, less than a minute. I
know you're pretty excited about the upcoming season of corporate engagement.
Give us a preview.
S6 (40:49):
Um, I think the preview is going to be a
lot on child sex trafficking. Um, listen, I agree with
everyone who's saying we need to release all the Epstein files,
but I'm also saying if you think the Epstein files
are the main thing, you are out of touch with
reality that these giant payment services, these these, um, hotel chains, uh,
(41:12):
you know, the dirty dozen, uh, Instagram owned by, uh, meta,
the app stores for Apple. Uh, the fact that they
rolled back their child sexual abuse detection material and lobbied
against state laws holding them accountable. Sorry. That's Epstein. Times
a thousand. Uh, so you want to really deal with
(41:33):
sex trafficking? Sure. Release the files. I'm all for it. Uh,
but we want to really deal with it. Then get
these companies to stop monetizing sex trafficking. Uh, and they're
not going to do that on their own. It's going
to take shareholders saying, we don't want you to do this. Uh,
and also shareholders saying you might think it's profitable to
(41:53):
sell these apps, but in the long run it won't
be because maybe you sell an app for 40 bucks
a month, but then you get hit with a $50
billion lawsuit and you're behind the game. So we're going
to see a lot of engagement along those lines.
S1 (42:07):
Well, I know you'll keep us posted as that develops, Jerry.
There's probably not anything more important than than that work
that you're doing there. We're grateful for you, my friend.
Thanks for being here today.
S8 (42:18):
And you. God bless.
S1 (42:19):
All right. That's Jerry Bowyer. He's our resident economist. He
joins us each Friday. Let me say thanks to my team.
I certainly couldn't do this program without the amazing work
of today to hear Jim, Dan, Rihanna, everybody at Moody
Radio and everybody here at Faith five, because Faith and
Finance Live is a partnership between Moody Radio and Faith five.
Have a wonderful weekend. Come back and join us on Monday,
(42:42):
Lord willing. We'll see you then. Bye bye.