Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
Good afternoon everyone. It is November twenty first, about one
o'clock in the afternoon, talking today about the Philadelphia Phillies
top ten prospects and for our Patreon members, you will
get all twenty if you'd like to join us out
at the Patreon site, it's patrio win dot com. Forward
Slash Prospect three sixty one. The Philadelphia Phillies system is
(00:27):
it's always tough to get your arms around it. They've
got some really high end players. One of the best,
I think one of the best prospects in the game
at eight Miller Andrew Paynter. We waited all season and
this past season for him to make his major league debut.
He never did. Stuff was awful. Talk about that. They've
got a lot of athleticism in there on their roster,
(00:49):
always have. They love these athletic kids. Some of them
turn out to be a Miller and some of them
most of them turn out to be NP not prospers.
And it's just the way that the Philadelphia Phillies like
the role. So they get these really athletic players, they
rush them through the system, and it is a philosophy.
(01:11):
Every since I've been writing about prospects, it's just the
way they roll. And if you can't make it in
high A, they just move on from you, they trade you,
or you just become fodder within the organization. So it
is a it's a tough place to grow up in
with the Phillies, but again, that's just how they roll.
(01:31):
My number one guy in one of the highest ranked prospects.
I think he's a top ten guy. Let me go
to my top prospect list. I'm finishing up the Seattle
Mariners this morning. Let's see Phillies clicked that on eight million. Yeah,
ranked ninth, so he's one of the best prospects in
the game. Got off to a slow start, but man
(01:53):
I got his from August first through the end of
the season. So that was thirty six games, so pretty
decent sample size one hundred and seventy three plate appearances.
He hit three point fifty six with more walks than strikeouts,
a sixteen and a half percent strikeout rate, six home runs,
(02:14):
and twenty two stolen bases. If you're looking for a
negative to get caught eight times, so twenty two out
of thirty. But that's about as good as it gets.
But up until then, I don't know where the I
don't know when he turned it around, but I write
it wrote about because I do daily notes for our
Patreon members, as people know, so I'm constantly writing about
(02:38):
these guys. And at some point during the second part
of the season things started to click for a Miller.
Not exactly sure of the day, but prior to that, well,
i'll just do prior to that. From July thirtieth through
the fourth he hit two twenty two so with for
(03:00):
strikeouts and fifty one walks. Almost second half of the year,
from August first to the end of the season, walk
more than he struck out. Struck out nearly twice as
many times as he walked in the first two thirds
of the season first half of the season, so it's
(03:21):
quite a turnaround. But one of the best prospects in
the game. The trick here is he should be up
at some point in twenty twenty six. Obviously he's played shortstop,
and I think he's primarily played ture did I write
if he's sure. I looked into that, whether he's even
played any third base at all, but it would appear
(03:42):
that he's not going to play shortstop with Trey Turner there,
I don't think they're going to be moving Trey Turner
anytime soon. Third base is available. I think when we
did our free agent role, I wasn't thinking Aden Miller,
and I think I had somebody going. But now that
I think more about it, I do think Aiden Miller
has a chance too. He won't he won't break camp,
(04:05):
but be a significant piece of that Philadelphia Phillies organization
in the second half. Let's take a look here, shall
we at the Phillies what roster resource says. See if
we can figure this out. Third base is currently Alec boulm.
Now I remember this because I had Bryce Harper's At first,
I forgot who I had going there, and at second
(04:28):
basis Bryce and Stott. So it's full Could Aiden Miller
play the alphabe never has but there's you mean, he's
athletic enough and good enough to play the outfield. Could
they move him out there. It's a possibility, but I
do think we see him at some point. I would
guess it's third base Alec Bohm becomes a d h
R dfaid or gets moved moved on. I mean, he's
(04:51):
a good player, but I mean it's I think nothing eight.
Miller's chance to be a star so and I think
they need to get him up and they will get
him up in twenty twenty six, Andrew Paynter, Look, it
was a down season for him. He just did not
have the kind of season that warranted a move up
(05:12):
to the big leagues. And it's interesting, while the Phillies
will rush guys up, particularly the lower levels of the
minor leagues, you have to earn your way up to Philadelphia.
So if you're not pitching well, you're not playing well,
you're not going to get the call. And Painter just
did not play well enough. And I went back and
took a look at his pitch mix and he definitely
(05:33):
threw his slider a lot more in twenty twenty six
than he did prior to his injury. I don't know
why that is. I didn't get a chance to talk
to Himboddy Philadelphia about that. Is that they were worried
that the curvebo was putting too much stress on his
elbow and didn't want to have that again, so they
threw the slider usually the other way around. So I'm
(05:53):
not even sure after I said that that makes any
level of sense. But something changed that he just because
the curveball is a seventy great pitch and the sliders
a fifty, and maybe they were just trying to get
it better as part of the development process. But if
they can move back to curveball, change up fastball, I
think that's a better pitcher than slider, change up fastball guy. So,
(06:20):
which is pretty much what he was last season. So
let's let's if the Phillies can get him back to
throwing that curveball. If they want him to throw that curveball,
then I think you could have a very very effective pitcher.
I think a number two starter for sure in the Phillies.
I mean, they're losing a lot of guys and they're
going to need Andrew Paynter in twenty twenty six. Would
(06:41):
I be rushing to draft him. Probably not. I would.
I mean, because you're he's still famous, so he's still
going to go really early. Let's see if we can
bring that up. While I'm talking, see where he's going.
It's probably just gonna go a little bit too early
because last year he went really early because people thought
(07:03):
because he was about to get the call in two
thousand and twenty three, right because that's when he was
he had surgery in twenty four out twenty five was
last season, so it was twenty twenty three. There was
they thought at the beginning of twenty twenty four he
might break camp. That was the buzz and then he
got hurt and there we go. So Andrew Payne, Wow,
(07:23):
wait on, Andrew Painter is going four ninety four off
the board. So four ninety four divided by fifteen that's
a thirty third round, the end of the thirty third round.
And I like that. I like that a lot. Yeah,
I would. I would bet on the comp that there
they're going to get him back to the right pitch
(07:46):
mix and he's gonna come up and do some damage.
And if I can get him as a reserve player, yeah,
I'll take that. Last year he was not. He was
going a lot earlier than that. So I'm glad I
checked on that because I'm about a month away, six
weeks away from doing my NBC draft and I might
just make that move. I like that. Okay, let's get
(08:09):
back to let's get back to the list. Here go back.
Number three is Justin Crawford. Obviously Carl Crawford's son, very
similar player, seventy great speed, asn't Carl Crawford had some power.
I think Justin Crawford's going to have power, it just
hasn't shown yet. And the big problem with him is
he hits everything on the ground. I think it's a
fifty nine percent ground ball rate. That's an extreme ground
(08:33):
ball hitter. So he can beat a lot of stuff out.
But you're just not going to do damage with a
fifty nine percent ground ball rate. So you're talking a
very light hitting outfielder at the moment, that's got shades
of a fourth outfielder. But the bad speed is there.
The eggs of velocities are are aren't great, but they're
good enough. I think he could hit, you know, ten
(08:55):
to twelve type of form runs similar power that his
dad had. He get the ball up in the air,
and that's just not adding leverage, that's just squaring up
balls a little bit more. So. He still needs to
get stronger and start to add a little bit of
lift and start to sting the ball a little bit.
But he's still a great prospect and he's getting closed.
(09:16):
He's spent most of the season in Triple A. A
Rouin Escobar, one of my guys from last season, I
had and him early on. He got off to a
great start and low Way. Once he got promoted to
High A, you know, the strikeouts started to creep up
on it. But he hits the ball really really hard.
And Highay out in Lakewood, which is on the Jersey Shore,
(09:39):
which I've been to a ton. It's a great ballpark,
A nice little, nice little drive out there from where
I live, maybe an hour and fifteen minutes or so
hour and fifteen minutes when it's not beach weather in
four hours if you go on the weekend. But during
early early spring before school let's out, you can get
(10:01):
there an how fifteen minutes. It's very very nice ballpark. Anyway,
Escobar is going to have huge power. I think he's
going to hit. Yeah, he is pretty aggressive at the plate,
a lot of these Latin players are. But I think
it's going to I think he's going to hit and
I think there's going to be some power there. So
(10:21):
I still like the player a lot. Look at that
posting one hundred and nine mile hour exit velocity and
that's as an eighteen year old in low Ay when
you know we had baseball savant data there, So I
think you can develop twenty twenty five. I'm ron two
seventy plus average with a little bit of stolen bases
early in his career. Love Love, Lover, Ruin Escobar. Here's
(10:42):
a guy that I've been writing about. It seems like forever.
So Gabriel ron Cones Junior in the Fall League in
twenty twenty four. Liked the player. I've liked the player
for a while. He just has never really put it
all together. But you look back at what he did
in twenty twenty and it was really good. He's got
more power than you think. There's some good speed there
(11:05):
posted exsit velocities in the one Zho nine range, So
that's plenty of pop to be able to hit some
home runs. So I've got him with maybe a fifteen
to fifteen type of player, maybe a little bit more pop,
definitely around twelve to fifteen type of stolen bases. And
I think he's getting really really close as well, and
so look for him to come get the call at
(11:29):
some point. Let's see if he's even being drafted NFBC leagues.
I bet you he's a hot Oh yeah, here's uh
seven six fifty eight and two drafts he's been drafted
as I'm sure it's probably some of our Patreon members
sixty two drafts. He's drafted too, So I mean, that's
not a bad pick for the last guy the number
(11:52):
fifty selection. There's probably going to be ten candidates for
that spot. But I like Gabriel lorn Coins. I think
you see him. I bet you makes a Tim McLoud
Waiver wire. Griffin Buckholder. People went nuts in the fantasy
baseball industry about Griffin bok Buckholder. Somebody must, some scout
must have publicly said something about him. And look, he
(12:16):
signed for two and a half million dollars in the
second round, so it was a legit prospect coming out.
But he's really raw and his hit tool is really raw,
and we saw that hits the ball hard. I got
a tool summary high Kate arm with closure trade doors.
Oh that's not good. I got the wrong tool summary there.
I got to fix that. But anyway, I missed time
(12:39):
early in the season. Maybe he never got it going,
but he also struck out nearly thirty percent of the time,
and he's got plus speed. He really wasn't able to
show that, so maybe it was just the tools. Because
of the injury. He wasn't really able to flash those enough.
But he's still a high impact, potential guy. But it's
(13:01):
it's also a guy that just did not perform like
I think a lot of people thought he was going
to perform. Not giving up on him by any stretch,
because again, he's one of the few players anywhere that
you can get that's got twenty twenty upside, maybe twenty
five twenty five type of upside, but he needs to
learn how to hit. And let's face it, the the
Phillies are not good with helping their players get through
(13:24):
it because they rushed them so much. And that's the
concern about Griffin Buckholder for Holder. And see if I
have it right up here in the UH yeah, bat speed,
exit velocity. Okay, I've got it right there. I just
don't have it wrong down in the UH in the tools. Okay.
Number seven is Dante Norri. I'll never forget. A guy
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had to leave one of our first year player drafts
early and asked me if I went in mind picking
up some players for him at the end of the draft.
So I did, and one of the guys picked up
is Dante nor And I just took all the guys
in Mike Queue and when he came up, I took
the first player out of my queue and it was
Dante noriy I like Dante Nori. And then I don't know,
shortly after the draft was every dropped them like rat bastard.
(14:09):
He dropped them, but he did, and I my AI
engine loved this guy, right. They put them up into
you know, potential impact player. Look, the tools are loud,
twenty thirty type of upside. Is he going to hit enough?
I mean, I don't know. I mean that's that's you know,
we can go back to it, just said him a Burkeholder.
(14:30):
And the concern that I have that the Phillies rush
these guys and don't do a great job at teaching
them how to hit. And then they get up to
the upper levels of the minor leagues and they hit
one eighty and you know, we've got somebody hit one
eighty down here in the list. Oh, Devin Salta Bond's
a perfect example. At thirteen. He hit one ninety one
eighty something like that. And the tools are good. So
(14:55):
but you know, the same thing could happen with Dante Nori.
But I do like the upside here and need somebody
that you really need to keep an eye on this
coming season. At any point, I think this guy could
break out. If he doesn't, it'll because he can't hit enough.
Cage Wood right handed pitcher. He was a twenty six
(15:17):
overall pick. Again, the Phillies obviously a very good team,
so they got low in the first round, and actually
for all rounds. Guy can touch ninety seven six more
ninety four to ninety six high strikeout, but I think
there's probably a lot of reliever risks there. It's not
a big guy, doesn't have great control of his arsenal,
(15:42):
but it's a big arsenal. I kind of copped him
a little bit to Jack Lighter. Jack Lighter's got really
big stuff, not a big guy as well. I still
think Jack Lder will eventually moved to the bullpen. I
just don't know if his body's going to hold up
under a starter's starters load. I think the same thing
with cage Wood. But top forty five starter or reliever,
(16:02):
so interesting. Guy. Probably would target him in the third
or fourth round in the first year player draft. Jean Cabrera,
originally an Oriole I believe it was Orio was probably
traded for JOJ. Jimenez or one of those guys that
believers I can't stand. I forget who it was. And
(16:24):
so for our Dinosatic owners, how about that trade with
I mean for our Patreon members, that trade of the
Orioles Grayson Rodriguez for Taylor Ward. I wrote up a
long article about it. I thought my AI engine said
it best at the end. It was a rare opportunity.
It was a rare opportunistic win for the Los Angeles Angels.
(16:46):
That was brutal, and uh, yeah it was. I mean,
you gotta wonder what the hell the Orioles are thinking
giving up Grayson Rodriguez. But Tim and I will talk
about that on Sunday. I don't get it. I mean,
I get that he has not been able to stay healthy,
but man, that's a great arm and the Orioles desperately
need arms. And I mean Taylor Ward, if he was
(17:08):
twenty six years old, yeah great. But he's thirty two
and he's in final he's in the final year of
his before he be a free agent. I don't get
it unless they've looked at the medicals and think, you know,
by July his arms literally gonna fall apart. I just
don't get that. Man, Jean cabrere missed most of the season,
(17:29):
Tommy John surgery, got off to a really good start.
Not a big guy, big arm though, probably reliever. He'll
miss the first half of twenty twenty six, but a
guy that just keep in mind. I think there's something there. John,
I'm sorry, I got I got it wrong. It's Moys's
Chasse who number ten was a former Oriole he had
(17:50):
Tommy John. I got the two guys mixed up. Jean
Cabrera did not have Tommy John surgery. It was Moys's
Chace who had Tommy John surgery. So everything I just
said about about John Caprera was about Moyses Chasse. I
apologize at the I was thinking about the wrong guy.
(18:12):
Cabrera was signed out of Venezuela in twenty twenty. As
I said, hitting ninety seven is not a big guy.
I think he winds up as a reliever. So but
you know, stranger things have happened. He could become a
starter and then Chasse or Chas swing and miss stuff.
Probably a reliever as well. Starter ceiling now because it's
(18:35):
a really big arm up to ninety eight, so it's
bigger stuff than Cabrera. Both have reliever risks there so,
but moyses Chesse or Chase is the higher upside guy.
That is it for our top ten. I'm going to
Paul's here and encourage everybody to join us at the
(18:58):
patrons site pat or in dot com. Forward slash prospect
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Lots of good stuff coming up, and there will be
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in the next week or so. Uh until Sunday, guys,
We'll talk to you soon.