Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Good afternoon everyone. It is November twenty ninth, about four
point thirty in the afternoon, a wonderful Saturday afternoon here
in Oshanawo Beach, North Carolina. It is a bit chilly today,
forty six degrees high temperature, which is never good when
you're on the on a barrier island because the wind
is blowing. It's it's cold. I know Tim will make
(00:21):
fun of me, but it is absolutely cold outside. But
it is always a good day to be talking prospects,
and that is what we're doing today. We are reviewing
the Baltimore Orioles top twenty six prospects. Actually is it
twenty six something like that. There's a lot of twenty
five twenty six players. I will be doing ten for everyone,
(00:41):
and then all twenty six for our Patreon members. If
you'd like to join us out at the Patreon site.
It's batrio win dot com forward slash prospect at three
sixty one. Tim and I will also be talking about
the fantasy implications of the Baltimore Orioles. They just signed
Ryan Helsley this afternoon, which is interesting, kind of a
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bridge or maybe a complete replacement for Felix Bautista. Who
obviously is I can be back much of this upcoming season,
but they've got him signed for two years, and there
was talking about right making Ryan Helsley a starter, but
I think the Orioles will keep him in the bullpen.
But it is a team that has always relied on
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a great drafting and player acquisition, and they've done a
really good job. But I got to tell you the
besides Gunner Henderson and somewhat with Jackson Holliday, I think
there's been a lot of hit and miss here in
the major leagues. I mean, Kobe Mayo has not been
great since he was promoted. He had a little bit
(01:49):
of a you know, kind of a power search at
the end of the season, but if you look at
the data, the data doesn't support that power surge. Sam
Samuel Basi, I think that guy's going to be a
real stud. But I mean there's still still a lot
of questions here. Dylan Beavers, there's some platoon splits there,
you know, and Kester Hurst Kirkstad is I mean probably
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you know, just another bat, you know, just an extra
bat there with the Orioles and Colton Cowser has not
been able to stay healthy. So again, it's been pretty
uneven throughout the guys that they have been bringing up.
And many of these players were looked upon as at
least I thought they were going to be fantastic prospects
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and you would be looking at the next great organization
for you know, a nice long five to seven year run,
and it just hasn't happened, as they lost eighty seven
games this past year. Jordan Westbrook's been very good again,
another guy has not been able to stay healthy. But
I don't know, Dylan Beavers, is that a guy you
want to go to battle with. Adlee Rutchman is I mean,
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he's a guy that struggled to stay healthy as well,
and I think has offensively not performed up to what
we thought he was going to be. And I've already
mentioned Colton Kowser and Kobe Maya, so they it just
has not come together like the elites of the elites
prospects they were coming through the system, And maybe that's
just the way it is. You got a superstar and
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Gunner Henderson, a very good player in Jordan Westberg and
Jackson Holiday, and everybody else's kind of, you know, maybe
a little average. I mean, Adleie Rutchman maybe a little
bit better than average, but one one overall. Jackson Holiday
won one overall, Colton Calser seventh overall. Is that what
it was? I mean, it's a it's a lot of
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you know, a lot of high end guys that were
drafted that you know it's been a bit uneven and
you know, going in and taking a look at their
minor leagues. I mean, I loved what they did in
this past draft where I think they got I think
they had the best draft overall and just loaded up
on some college kids that I really liked, and I
loved Slater de Brune and I think he's he has
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a chance to be a really really interesting, interesting guy.
So without further ado, let's get into it. The top
tier we got sam sam wild Beasi ike Iris Yawa,
Elloy and Lewis and de Leon are the guys that
my AI engine put at the very top. I would
sneak in Nate George and Slater de Brune. I think
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those guys have a chance to be really really good
players as well, but they're a little bit further away.
But Samuelbai, we saw he's already signed the big contractor
relatively big contract. Is he ready? It's huge, big boy
power h He looked great in Triple A. If you
tell me that he struggles this year would not at
all surprise me. Is he gonna play catcher? I think
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he'll retain catcher eligibility. It'll be interesting to see what
the Orioles do with Addlee Rutchman. He is not at
the same level as Adlie Rushman behind the plate. Could
they the pair him with an elite defender and make
that they're one two and move Adlie Rutchman? They could?
I mean idle the rechien gonna start to cost a
(05:09):
little bit of money. And I think the Orioles have
just not been able to get his swing such that
it is. He doesn't hit the ball all that hard,
so he's going to have to be a leverage swing
to really bring the power about, and they just not
have not been able to get that to be consistent
a consistent power hitter. But Sambasaiahs should be a twenty
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to twenty five home run guy easy with how hard
he hits the ball and with the leverage he has
in a swing. It's just that he's still a really
young kid that's still learning to play the game, and
I think that, you know, I'm not sure where he
is going. I actually got the average draft positions up now,
so let's see, let's go to catcher Messiah. It's probably
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going pretty high. Thirteenth, thirteenth catcher off the board. So
he's in the Gabriel, you know, Tyle keel Alejandra Kirk,
Adley Rutchman at eleven, so I mean he's being looked
upon as your number one catcher. I don't know, would
you rather have him or Carter Jensen coming in at eighteen?
Maybe Logan o'happy, who's data doesn't look so great on
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Logan o hoppy as well. I mean, catcher still is
is pretty thin in terms of how I think it
should be coming up, and a lot of those guys
just have not hit the ground running yet. But samuelbas
I guess if you take a look at it probably
has as much upside as a lot of those guys
in front of him, and definitely behind him, probably as
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much of a floor as a Kyle Teal you know,
if you loot, is probably better hitter, but as much
of a power floor as a lot of those guys
that come after him. Anyway, I think sam Uebberside is
going to be an excellent Major League baseball player, just
do I believe in it. This year we'll see Ike Irish, huge,
Ike Irish fan. I really pumped him up. He was
(07:00):
fourth on my board, you know, going into the draft,
and he dropped all the way of the nineteenth. I
didn't get why he dropped so far. But it's a
guy that can hit. There's going to be power. I
think he's going to be a solid catcher, not a
great catcher, but you know, you could see him coming
up pretty quickly. I have his ETA. It's twenty twenty seven,
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twenty eight, and it wouldn't be surprising if he makes
it all the way up to double A in twenty
twenty six, and you know, you could be starting the
countdown for twenty twenty seven and imagine an Ike Irish
as your main catcher, with sam Samuel Basayia Plane as
the second catcher full time DH, maybe a little bit
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of first base, and that could be a really interesting
move by the Orioles. And then they truly could move
on from Adley Rutchman. Maybe that's what they're thinking again,
go with a transitional guy with Rutchman this season and
wait for Ike Irish to come up next year at
worst two thousand. Yeah, I guess twenty seven is when
I think he'd be up. Love love love Ike iris
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I've got his it's see. I actually didn't put down
any projections at all, but I think he could be
like a two fifty two sixty batting average with fifteen
to twenty home runs, maybe twenty twenty two home runs,
something like that. I think he's going to be very good,
you know, top fifteen ish type of catcher. Wieawi Alloy
was the winner of the Golden Spikes Award. It was
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a down season for high end amateur athletes to us
that they give the Golden Spikes Award to a to
a college bat I mean played well. I mean three
point fifty four thirty four six seventy three twenty one
home runs at Arkansas, so good SEC school. The Orioles
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already got him in the low way hit two eighty
eight five hundred slug over twenty games. So I think
he's going to hit. I think there's some power. You know,
Is there going to be enough skills to make him
a huge fantasy impact player. No, but I think there
could be twenty five plus home runs, and I think
he's going to hit. Is he going to say its shortstop?
I don't believe so. I think he'll eventually moved to
(09:10):
third base, But I like Wowa Alloy and I think
it's not going to be long. I think he'll be
up in twenty twenty seven. So again, the Orioles have
restocked here. In that first round, they had a bunch
of picks and they really took advantage of it. Guys
dropped for whatever reason. More likely the teams in front
of him just went for high up these high upside
shortstops that we're sitting there, and a lot of the
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college bats that maybe aren't at the same level that
Nick Kurtz, Jake kaglin On and JJ Weatherholt, Weatherholt and
so forth were there in twenty twenty four. And I
don't think Ikirish as you put him in that category,
nor do you put Woi Alloy in that category. But
I think they're guys that can move pretty quickly as well.
(09:55):
Nate George, one of my favorite players own the Orioles.
I've really goosed them up here at number four. AI
assistant does not agree. He has him down at number five,
well one, two, three, four or five. So yeah, so
I guess he's okay. He just has he really likes
Louis de Leon. So but I think I actually thought
(10:15):
about Nate George even going higher than where he went,
but I put the college bats in front of him.
I just think this guy's got the athleticism that you love.
It's seventy grade speed. I think he's going to put
developed significant power as well. It's a really really great bat,
great bat speed, and it's going to come down to
how much he hits. And I mean he's pretty raw,
(10:38):
but he's already made it up to hya and he
looked great doing it. I mean he wasn't a crazy uh,
it wasn't a crazy strikeout rate. So I just think
this guy, he looks like an impact ballplayer. I mean,
just does a lot of things really well. So I'm
all on Nate Joy. Nate George had him in a
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bunch of a bunch of time see leagues and hoping
to really cash in on that here as we go forward,
he should start the season back at high A. Let
me take a look at a stat line that was
ninety two plate appearances and and high look at a
twelve stolen bases and well it's got caught six times.
(11:20):
Actually got look seventy fifty stolen bases, got caught twenty
five times, so there's definitely some opportunity he's getting caught up.
But it's a seventy runner, so he's got the speed there,
just needs to work on it, needs to work on
kind of his his skill in terms of stealing bases.
Look at that a sixteen point eight percent strikeout rate
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across low and high, a twenty twenty one percent if
you will in high. That's that's great. I mean for
a young kid who is uh just turned nineteen years old,
turned nineteen in June, I mean, that's really good. I mean,
there's he's just a very exciting player and a kid
that's not talked about enough if you're in my humble opinion.
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Number five is Dylan Beavers. I've never been a big
fan of Dylan Beavers. You go back and he just
does not hit left handed pitching at all. It's one
hundred points lower against lefties. Of his forty four minor
league home runs, only two came off of left handed hitters,
and they were both back in twenty twenty three. I
mean this is an extreme platoon hitter. It's good against
(12:29):
writing it, so, you know, look, platoon bat. I think
it's fine. So do not overdraft this guy and play
and fantasy drafts coming up this season. The Orioles are
really good looking at data and they are seeing exactly
the same thing I am telling you about. And again
it's been he's had platoon splits all throughout the minor
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leagues and look, could that change? Yes? Is it likely? No?
So just be careful of Dylan Beavers. Is Austin o'verne
ove or in another really athletic kid, A two sport
athletes playing on the USC football team before fully committing
to baseball, sold forty three bases up the double A
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already finished the year with sixty four bases and as
opposed to Nate George only got caught eight times. He
did strike out a little bit too much twenty seven strikeouts,
so he doesn't make tremendous contact, but there's you know, again,
emerging power eventually ten to fifteen home runs. The Orioles
love this kid. I don't think it's Judd Famian, which
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you know, for Patreon members, you're gonna hear about him
in the in the twenties. It's a kid that's got
just really tooled up and has never been able to
hit it off. I think Austin o'verne will be able
to hit enough. Will he stay in Oriel with the
if the Orioles are back in it, could they move
him for pitching at the deadline? Yeah, he could be.
He could be that guy as well. Come on number
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seven later to Brun. The Orioles just couldn't say enough
great things about this kid when I talked to him,
talked to them a couple of months ago when I
was doing the system. It's just a great looking swing. Again,
another kid that's really athletic, plus plus speed. A question
about how much power he's going to develop. But it
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sure looks like a Corman Carrol starter kit to me.
And apparently he really turned some heads in the in
the fall when he was at so they don't necessarily
have so the whole idea amount fall instructure is somewhat
gone away. Mostly fall instructs are in the in Arizona.
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The Orioles spring training facility is in Florida, so but
they do play scrimmages and they do have we're watching
some of these kids play, and he wasn't deployed out
to Low Way because they didn't feel like he was ready.
But all accounts, both from the Orioles and other people
that saw it later Brun, they really liked him this
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fall in terms of the swing and the athleticism. So
ball in here on Slater de Brune, don't let him
sneak by in first year player drafts. In Riki Bradfield. Look,
he's a flawed player. There is absolutely no power there.
He is a seventy defender, he's seventy speed, can really hit.
Played well in the Fall League. I think he led
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the league in stolen bases, But is he going to
hit enough? Excuse me if is he gonna have enough power?
And does he have one home run? Let's take a
look at that en Riki. There's just no power. And
he's not a small guy. He's six foot one hundred
and seventy pounds. Oh yeah, three home runs last season. Wow,
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there you go, power guy. I mean, so a four
home runs in twenty twenty four, three home runs in
two thousand, so he's got seven home runs in his
minor league career. It's just it's still thirty great power,
is not enough batspeed behind him to even suggest there's
going to be a ton of power. If you take
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a look, forty three percent ground ball rate, so he's
it's not an extreme ground ball hitter. But maybe if
he hadds a little bit of loft that could be there.
So that's the only thing is if he can develop
and he's got the physicality you believe, you believe, and
I write about this that he should be able to
develop a little bit of power. If he does, could
be he could be an impact performer. But that's why
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he's just got some fourth outfield or risks, so I
think he moves quickly. It's it's the Orioles would love
to replace have him play in center field at some
point late in twenty twenty six or twenty twenty seven.
Colton Cowser is not going to be a great defensive
center fielder. And that's the that's that's their only option
in center field because Tyler O'Neill and Taylor Ward cannot
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play center field. And if you're the Orioles pitching staff
and you're going to look behind you and see those
three guys in the outfield, it's not going to be good.
So look, I don't know why they signed Taylor Ward.
I don't know. I'll probably understand more why they signed
Taylor Ward or trade it for him, then the whole
Tyler O'Neill. Let's see if Tyler O'Neill gets moved, they
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do the right thing and move Colton Cowser to a
center excuse me, to a corner, and then maybe you
get by with the Dylan Beavers until Enricky Bradfield is
ready to go. But we'll see. I mean, there is
definitely fourth outfield or risk, but there's thirty plus dole
in base potential. If he could just hit five to
eight home runs, I think he could be an impact player.
(17:38):
Luis de Leon is their best pitching prospect. Played in
the Fall League. Looked really really good in the Fall League.
Plused off a ground ball machine, a heavy sinker that
he throws. I think he should be on in Moost
dynasty leagues at this point. I don't think he comes
up next season, but teams need pitching. Really really interesting guy.
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And then the Orioles fourth first round pick. We even
have four first round picks that they had. Canaan Bodine
was there let's see seven point seven percent strikeout rate,
walked as many walked as much as he struck out.
So really a guy that just makes great contact, he
needs to get the ball up into the era because
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he just doesn't have a ton of He has a
little bit of bat speed and you know, average ex velocity,
but it's a ground ball kind of line drive type
of hitter. So they Orioles can get his swing plane
train squared around a little bit, just a little bit
more loft in his swing, you could start to see
him unlock some of that power. So again, would I
(18:43):
be taking a first year player draft? I mean catchers,
He'll definitely move to the third round, even though I
kind of like him. It's just because catching catchers just
move down because of the volatility and they're catchers, so
he'll move down a little bit. That is a top ten,
a really strong top ten. If you like this kind
(19:04):
of analysis, you like this kind of full detail on it,
please join us at the Patreon site p A t
R e O N dot com. Forward Slash Prospect three
sixty one for Patreon members, Hang on and I will
do the next sixteen