December 6, 2025 • 26 mins
The following players are discussed:
1. George Lombard Jr. (SS)
2. Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz (RHP)
3. Spencer Jones (OF)
4. Carlos Lagrange (RHP)
5. Dax Kirby (SS)
6. Ben Hess (RHP)
7. Bryce Cunningham (RHP)
8. Chase Hampton (RHP)
9. Dillon Lewis (OF)
10. Kyle Carr (LHP)
1. George Lombard Jr. (SS)
2. Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz (RHP)
3. Spencer Jones (OF)
4. Carlos Lagrange (RHP)
5. Dax Kirby (SS)
6. Ben Hess (RHP)
7. Bryce Cunningham (RHP)
8. Chase Hampton (RHP)
9. Dillon Lewis (OF)
10. Kyle Carr (LHP)
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Good afternoon everyone. It is December sixth, about four point
fifty in the evening. Happy Saturday to everyone. Probably everyone
is watching college football. I live part time here in
North Carolina in the South, and everyone is a college
football fan. I mean, and I'm not at all. I
went to University of Maryland, where football was not a thing.
(00:24):
So though I think they won, they won a bunch
of championships early on, but it was not a very
good team when I was there. It hasn't been a
good team since. So I don't have any knowledge of
college football or anything about anything. Kind of gives me
as an outsider. And I talked about baseball. People look
at me like I have three heads. Having said that,
(00:46):
we went to a kind of a community party last night,
the three or four streets around us. Everybody got together,
you know, the white elephant thing kind of stuff, and
I had four guys come over and want to talk
to me about the World Series. I thought that was
really encouraging. They know I'm in baseball and love baseball,
(01:06):
so they all were very excited about the World Series.
And you know who was this show? Hey Otani? So
I mean, look, they were really basic questions, but I
thought it was really encouraging that maybe here in the
South and North there rural North Carolina's where I lived
out on the beach, so it's rural North Carolina. People
are like, hey, what is this baseball thing? It was
(01:27):
actually kind of cool. So that gave me a little
bit of encouragement to maybe we're starting to see maybe
twenty twenty six will be a pretty exciting season with
more the casual fan being a little bit interested, which
I think is great. People really liked the you know,
as I talk to these four gentlemen, they really liked
(01:48):
the Blue Jays story. I think people love to see
an underdog and an underdog who did so well against
the you know, it used to be the Mighty Yankees.
Now it's the Mighty Dodgers, and it was cool to see.
So I felt really good about that conversation. But I
don't know anything about college football, so I am not
I don't ever turn the TV on on Saturdays. Nothing
(02:11):
there for me. Anyway, Today we are talking prospects. We're
talking the New York Yankees, my home team in when
I'm up in New Jersey, I go to a lot
of Double A affiliated games Eastern League, which I think
is one of the better leagues in baseball. It's a
very fair ballparks except for Reading, which is where the
(02:31):
Philadelphia Phillies play. That's out in Reading, Pennsylvania. That's the
really only hitters ballpark. There's a lot of more pitcher
friendly ballparks. So to get a real sense for hitters
in Double A, because that's usually the challenge area is
usually when pitchers come in or are starting to pitch better,
you're starting to see a lot better breaking pitches, a
(02:53):
lot better control, and you have a sense for whether
these guys are going to hit or not. So I've
seen most every one of these players, some of the
obviously some of the DSL guys have not seen. But
I have a really good sense for most of these players,
everybody but Spencer Jones, who continues to flummex me in
terms of whether I think this guy's actually gonna make
(03:15):
it or not. But uh so, anyway, so let's get started.
As a caveat, I will say that, you know, kind
of a general statement that the Yankees being the maybe
not as popular now as the Dodgers just in point
in time, but I think there's still more Yankees fans
floating around the country and the world than there are
(03:38):
any other baseball teams, So their prospects always get more publicity.
They're always overhyped, they're always over valued. So know that
sometimes it works out and guys become superstars, you know,
the Derek Juters of the world, and sometimes they flame out.
And it seems like more than not they flame out.
And I haven't actually done a style determine if that
(04:01):
is really accurate, but it's just guys come up as
you know, the best things in slice. So take take
a look at Jason Domingez. I mean, it looked like
he could do no wrong as some of the minor
leagues a lot. You know, saw some flaws there, but
you know, it's everybody's talking how great this guy is,
and you take a look at it, and he hit
two forty against left ting at pitching. No slug excuse me,
(04:23):
slug two forty. That's a two followed by a four
two forty against left ting and pitches. They can't hit lefties,
and you know, and so he is a flawed guy,
and it just seems like they that happens all the time.
So kind of bear that in mind that Yankees prospects
in general get overhyped. If you play in a deeper
(04:43):
dynasty league, you're almost always going to have a Yankee
fan and on your team, unless it's a very specific,
geographically based club. So you'll get people moving Yankees prospects
more just because you know they're Yankees fans and they
like to have some other home hometown team players on it.
It's just the way it works, so let's dig into it.
(05:05):
George Lombard Junior. I saw him play probably twenty times,
a couple times in High A, and I saw him
a ton, probably more than I think. I went to
thirty thirty Double A games. I went to a lot
and it was only half. It was only here for
two thirds of the season, so I went to a
lot of games. Wait, the guy looks great in a uniform.
(05:26):
It's the it's a great body. He's really athletic, really
moves well in the you know, shortstop as well, really
fluid emotions. Looks like when he gets off the bus,
you're pointing to that guy and going, I want you.
Quite frankly, he wasn't very good in Double A, and
he struck out more more than I thought he would,
particularly as a season war on. I don't know if
(05:48):
he just got tired, but the swing got a little
longer as the season war on, and he just never
put together. The season looked great in hy A, but
once he got promoted the double A, the game was
a little bit fast for him. And I saw that
because I just saw ball after ball after ball fouled
off and he just could never square up a pitch.
(06:12):
In the futures game, he squared off a pitch. I
think he got a double. That's I mean. When I
saw that on I was watching the game on TV,
I'm like, where'd that come from? Because the doubles I
saw were flayers, you know, just he just never got
a round on pitches, which was really disappointing. So I
still think he's going to be a very good baseball player.
I think there's going to be an impact player and
there I think he's got more power than you think.
(06:33):
He's a plus runner, So I think you have fifteen
to twenty five type of player, fifteen runs, twenty five
stolen bases. I think it's an everyday shortstop that I
think can stay at shortstop. Obviously he can move off
and play center field. He could also you know, private
play any of the outfield positions, play second base, so
there's a lot of opportunities for him to play defensively.
(06:54):
I think he's going to be a very, very good player,
but it was not a good statistical season. Now, if
he's struggles again in twenty twenty six, maybe we'll have
to reevaluate. But him, I still have him as where
do I have him ranked here? I think I've got
bring up. The Yankees have a huge spreadsheet that I
(07:16):
filter to look at everything, and I was actually, who
do know? I had the Tampa Bay raise up. I
have him as a fortieth rank prospect, which he was
the forty second rank prospect at the end of the season.
So he's pretty much stuck to where he was. You know,
the last time I did the evaluation again, I think
it was in August. That is George A. Lombard a
(07:38):
junior number two. I put in Elmer Rodriguez Cruz. I
decided not to put George excuse me, Spencer Jones there.
I put him at number three. I put Elma Rodriguez
Cruz over Carlos Lagrange, and you can argue Carlos Lagrange
has got slightly better stuff, but man, Elma Rodriguez Eerc
(08:01):
is really good. I mean I saw him pitch. I
know I saw pitch once at High A. I think
I thought I saw him pitch four times, maybe five
times in Double A. And I saw him twice in
a week go up against Jonahtong in that Boston Red
Sox series, and I think it was two weeks later,
Jonahtong was in the major leagues, and Jonahton looked great.
(08:24):
He had a great change up, a fastball that just
jumped them, and that Tim Linsacum delivery looked great. Did
not have a slider. Was worried about that when he
got up to the major leagues and it kind of
reared its ugly head. But Elma Rodriguez Cruz and both
those games, absolutely no doubt out pitched him. He was
the better pitcher on the mound. He was the more
(08:44):
athletic guy. He had the better body, he had the
better stuff. He was a better pitcher. And I mean
that's where you take you hear the hype of Jonahtong,
Jonahtong best picture of the minor leagues last season, You
can make that argument. And I saw Erc come in
and pitch better than him. Then I went to a
(09:04):
couple of games after that. ERC pitched just as well.
It's great stuff. Fastball can sneak up the ninety seven.
It's more of it's more of a sinker, so I'm
going to say fastball. It's more as a sinker, so
it's actually tailing away from the hitter. It's got a
lot of natural cut on it. It's got a great
splitter that he uses and can kind of keep glove
(09:26):
side batters at Bay. I think it's a, you know,
a number three starter for sure. It could be a closer.
It's not the greatest delivery. There's some torque in his
in his in his arm swing. He does come a
little lower three quarters delivery, but he's such a big
guy that I think it just gives a little bit
(09:47):
more uniqueness from a look at it as opposed to
a guy that I think has to move to the bullpen.
So I'm I'm arguing starter upside number three starter with
is some potential sailing on top of it. I'm all
in here on Erc. If you don't know the story
behind him. Originally signed by the Boston Red Sox one
(10:10):
for one trading. You never see this between the Red
Sox and the Yankees ERC for all the catcher Navarrees.
So Carlos Navarre has had a great season last year,
and everybody's like, ah, the Red Sox got the better
of it, And I'm watching ERC pitch and going wow,
I think the Yankees got the better end of the deal.
(10:31):
Looks really good. I think we see him next season.
I really do. Number three, Spencer Jones. Do I feel
good about putting him number three? I absolutely do not.
There's a couple guys they just don't know what to do.
Is Xavier isaac Is with the Tampa Bay Rays is
another guy. I don't know how to rank him. Poor
(10:52):
guy had brain surgery at the end of last season.
So I mean, good thing he's still amongst us. I
mean apparently it was a very difficult surge, but you
know that aside, I've never know where to rank him.
I don't know where to put Spencer Jones because the
speed and power is real. Particularly the power is potentially
thirty forty home run poppy. He's a huge man with
(11:16):
a big swing, but when he connects, the ball just
jumps off his bad It's impressive. And even though he's
six foot five six foot six something like that. He
can run. I would put him a little bit faster
than like an Aaron Judge. Aaron Judge is a bigger
man than Spencer Jones, but they're kind of in that
(11:36):
same dartboard area, you know, they're kind of grouped there together,
enormously big human beings. He's in that area. But he's
faster than you think, and so he's athletic. You like
all that, but I hate the swing. The swing is
incredibly long. He's got huge, long arms as opposed Aaron
(11:56):
Judge has shorter arms. Spencer Jones has long arm and
I'm telling it, just when you watch him as much
as I have, it just looks like he's swinging in
slow motion and he's laid on everything. And he got
promoted the Triple A last season. He had that period
over the summertime. I never got a chance to go
up and see him when he was sitting, you know,
(12:18):
up in Scranton, that's where the Triple A affiliate pace.
Because he was on a roll. In a three week
period of time, I think he hit fifteen home runs.
It was crazy, and of course all Yankees fans, like
they do, were screaming and hollering, get him promoted, get
him promoted. Tim and I even talked about it on
the podcast. He was that hot, it was crazy. Woll
I'm striking out forty two percent of the time in
(12:38):
Triple A, you know, so so he and after that,
you know, I say, after the flourish of home runs,
he just started to swing and miss a ton, so
Triple A pitcher started to adapt and started to find
the holes in his swing and they are definitely there.
So from a fantasy standpoint, he could be enormous. He
(13:00):
could be a first round draft pick. He's that kind
of power speed. But if you told me he doesn't
hit enough and winds up following folks out to the
KBO because he can't hit enough, that would not surprise
me at all. I think that the Yankees blew it.
He was all the talk. Was it three years ago
(13:21):
in spring training when he had that period of time
where he was hitting everything, hit everything hard, which he
can do, and everyone was saying, we need to bring
him up. At that point, he had only played in
High A, and let's bring him up. He's going to
be great, and fans were screaming for him, and the
Yankees were getting tons of inquiries about Spencer Jones. I
(13:42):
know this for a fact, and actually because somebody actually
called me up and asked me to do an evaluation
one of the teams. Because I'm like a stringer, so
the teams will call me or reach out to me
and say, hey, we want an unbiased view. Can you
give me your view on Spencer Jones? And I tration
them as you know as as because I had seen
(14:02):
him play it a lot at High Ay and knew
about the long swing, so I knew that teams were
interested in as he was getting off to that you know,
hot start in spring training, and you know, it turns
out that there's concern that he could hit, and that
was the time I think the Yankees should have moved him,
and they just could not pull a deal off, and
(14:24):
they said, no, he's our guy, He's our next Aaron Judge,
and I just don't see it. I could be dead
wrong because he could be a thirty to thirty guy,
but I think he could hit two hundred as well.
So I got him ranked still very high, just because
so many people playing points leagues, so many people batting
(14:45):
average on base percentage not as much of it on
base batting average is the most volatile of any stat
that's out there, because guys like Spencer Jones who hit
the ball as hard as he does, he should be
able to walk around with a you know, a three
forty batting average of balls and plays, particularly when he's
young and athletic. So he could have a three forty
(15:06):
batting average of balls and play, strike out thirty five
percent of the time and still hit two fifty to sixty.
So there is that possibility that and if he hits
two fifty, he'll go thirty. There's a chance to go
thirty thirty or thirty twenty five, something like that, and
there'll be a superstar. I mean, that's that's the kind
of upside, even the guy who strikes out as much
(15:26):
as he does. And that's why I don't want to
drop him back too far. But just no, understand your risk,
understand what's going on with the player, and as long
as you do that, I think you'll be fine with
Spencer Jones. But again, how we how it all, how
this all finalizes, I just don't know. I don't think
(15:47):
anybody knows. I don't think the Yankees know. They know
the talent, but they all also know the deficiencies. Carlos
Lagrange was also impressive. I saw him pitch four or
five times last season. It's electric stuff, better stuff than EERC.
But I think he's going to be more of a closer.
He does not have a pitch to go up against
(16:09):
gloveside batters, and he's big guy. There's going to be
some control issues. There are some control issues. But to me,
if I were the Yankees, I would continue to try
to start him, but throw him in the bullpen, and
I think he hunts in the back of the back
of the bullpen. So both Lagrange and the ERC are
(16:30):
both guys. If I had I would be holding on
to him. I wouldn't think that Carlos Grange is okay.
He's going to be a reliever. It's going to take
him four years to become a closer. If he ever
becomes a closer, I went and look at him that way.
I would look at him as a great arm that's
got tremendous upside. Could be a starter. If he's a starter,
it's a number three, maybe more starter. It's more likely
(16:51):
a closer, but I don't think it'll take long. He's
just going to be a force coming out of that,
coming out of that bullpen. So I'm a big fan
of La Garage. I just like just like Ercie a
little bit better. Had the conversation with my AI assist,
and I can't remember what they said. I've already published
it out to our Patreon members. By the way, if
(17:12):
you like this kind of analysis, you like this kind
of stuff, joining us out of the patreot site, Patrio
in dot com forward slash prospect three sixty one five
dollars a month or fifty it's that fifty four dollars
a year or something like that, you get a week off.
I think that's how it works. One of the guys
(17:33):
that had not seen his number five is Dax Kilby.
Had a great probably the best of the class coming
out of last season's draft in terms of performance. Just
really played well in low way. The data liked him,
and he kind of reminds me the more I hear
about them, the more I look at his data a
(17:54):
little bit like George Lombard Junior, who the Yankees took
him in the first round and everybody went, huh, George
Lombard Junior, who like, why are you taking him in
the first round? And the same thing was a little
bit true with Dax Kilby, like why are you taking
this kid? And it just got off the snide really well.
Sixteen stolen bases in eighteen games, his plus speed. I'm
(18:15):
not sure how much power he's going to have, and
it's going to come down to how much he hits.
And you know, again got off the snide really really
well in the swing, at least looking at it on
television or MiLB feeds. Again, I did not go get
a chance to see him down in Florida, but looks
(18:36):
like it's just like a lot of these guys that
the Yankees have been, the Volpies of the world, and
George Lombard really high baseball IQ smart kids as well.
Lumbard Junior was very academically strong, as was Volpi's. Volpi
was very strong when he was going through Dell Barton.
So that's the high school up in Marsham, which is
(18:56):
where I live up in New Jersey. So these are
really three very similar kind of athletic high baseball HQ guys, grinders,
if you will. And I that's why pushing him up
the five, I just I'm not getting caught up in
the hype here, I'm getting caught up in maybe the
profile of the player reminding me a lot of George
(19:18):
Lombard junior. So yeah, he should be a guy that
goes early in first year player dress, maybe a little
bit earlier than going thirty ninth overall. Coming to number
six was the Yankees first round draft pick in twenty
twenty four. Ben hess I actually didn't like the pick
too much, but I've come around. I got a chance
to see him and both high A and DOUBLEA this
(19:40):
past season. It's a big guy. It's probably going to
be a reliever long term. I still have him as
a number four starter. Does not have the kind of
stuff at all like ERC and lagrange, just more of
a classic ninety three ninety four on our fastball tops
at at ninety five. It's good stuff, good curveball, workable,
(20:04):
decent change up, but it feels and smells a lot
more like a number four starter, kind of in that
Will Warren kind of world. Who I know didn't have
a very good season last year. It looks like he's
probably not even gonna he might move to the bullpen.
That could be where Ben Hesp goes. But I think
it's that kind of world where it's a good enough
arsenal to start decent control, but not plus anywhere across
(20:27):
the board, but still a pretty good pitcher in his
own right. I'm in a couple of leagues and I'm
not going to drop him, if that means anything to you, guys.
Number seven is Bryce Cunningham, Yankee second round pick in
twenty twenty four. Another guy saw in pitching Higa and
it was actually pretty impressed. Fastball did touch ninety six
(20:48):
when I saw him. I've got him down as an
up to ninety seven. I got some work from some
other evaluators who saw him get up to ninety seven.
It's a great change up, which means he's gonna move
through the system relatively quickly. The change up was pretty
unhittable in high A, so I'm assuming the same thing
will happen once he gets up to double A, which
I'll probably get a chance to see multiple innings out
(21:10):
of him. He's a guy that's more available in dynasty
leagues than Ben Hess, and the upside it's probably a
little bit higher than Ben Hess at the moment. Why
I have Hess in front of Bryce Cunningham, Maybe it's
his pedigree. First round versus second round. Maybe I should
have changed that. Maybe I should change that. Cumnor eight
(21:31):
is Chase Hampton didn't play still just I mean, injuries
have just stalled his career. Before his career, he looked
like a good number four starter. Doesn't have anything plus
good four quality pitches, decent control and command. But I
mean he needs to skip back out and pitch, and
I think that's the thing that we're waiting for. So
(21:52):
I know a lot of people have him indynasty leagues,
but he's definitely dropped as a guy that was probably
a top two hundred performer, top one fifty. I got
him at two eighty four now, so he's really dropping
just because he hasn't played. Number nine is probably the
sleeper in the organization as Dylan Lewis got a chance.
(22:14):
I saw him play I think two or three times.
I don't love the swing, but I got him as
a sixty sixty five runner. Go in the first base
and that's how you time him. There's a less than
four seconds from the left side, and you're an eighty
grade runner four point one from the right side, and
you take it down a tenth of a tenth of
a second and that gives you sixty seventy runner, eighty runner,
(22:38):
et cetera. We actually use now data on Baseball Savanta
to actually break the numbers down, but in the minor leagues,
and then when you're looking at guys in the combines,
that's what you're grading them on is how they're getting
out of the box, which isn't completely fair because if
you're not good at stealing bases and you're really fast,
sometimes that doesn't work. And managers you care about if
(23:01):
they're going to steal bases, not their raw speed. I
have a tendency to go. If you've got raw speed,
somebody will teach you how to steal bases, which is
generally true. Doesn't always make it true because it is
a skill that you have to learn, and some guys
never learned that skill. But anyway, I digress. But Dylan
Lewis is he hit what was a twenty two Let's see,
(23:25):
he went twenty two home runs and twenty five stolen bases.
I don't see a twenty two home run hitter at all.
I see more of above average power. Its good bat speed,
not great bat speed. He's not a big He's not
all that big. I mean He's a good sized kid,
but I see more like fifteen ish type of home
runs with definitely twenty plus stolen bases. Again, don't love
(23:47):
the swing. He might get exposed when he gets up
to double A with stuff on the inside. We have
to know that. But if he's available in your Dynasty league,
and I think he's a guy that's been a big
mover here for at least for me, I've got him
at three nine, just about where he was at the
end of the season. I might even try to move
him up a little bit as I finalize my top
five hundred. Again that you get that as you're a
(24:08):
Patreon member that officially will be dropping sometime in January.
I might get it out a little bit earlier, but
I need to kind of run through and rework some
of the stuff that as I do these top twenties,
I look, you know, just like Dylan Lewis, I look
at him and maybe he should be a little higher.
(24:29):
Kyle Carr is a lefty, a little bit more command
and control. Saw him pitch in high eight, did not
see him pitch in double A. You again, a third
round pick in twenty twenty three, top that at ninety
four when I saw him really get stuff hard to
pick up. He once he got the double A, he
did struggle in eight fifty six or eight. When I
(24:50):
saw him in high A. Look he looked decent, but
I put him more as a back of the rotation guy.
Sequences the ball as well, but I think once he
gets it's the better pitch. Once it gets the better hitters,
and we see that in double A he might get exposed.
And sure enough in his first three starts, which again
terribly small sample size, he was struggling a little bit
(25:10):
with with his with his stuff. I just don't know
if the stuff is good enough for him to pitch
at the highest level. But you know, it's still something
there that I think Dynasty League managers need to be
made aware of. Hold on for a second, I just
spilt something here. Okay, I'm back everyone, Sorry about that.
It's trying to get a drink of water and then
(25:32):
wound up spilling it all over all over everything. So
but anyway, that is our top ten. I am going
to close this out for the public, and again I'll
take a quick break and then when I get back,
we will do the remaining ten. And there's some good
players remaining ten for our patron members. Again, if you
(25:54):
want to support Tim and I, join us out of
the patreonsit pat r o n dot com forwards last
Prospect three sixty one. Tim and I be back tomorrow,
which we're what are we doing? Oh? I think we're
going to be reviewing some of the trades and acquisitions
that were done this past week. And then fantasy questions
(26:15):
of the Mets Phillies And is that true? Now? I
don't know. I just wrote the notes up. I can't
I wrote the notes up about so let me see. No,
I just sent them to them. I don't know. Something.
It'll be good, some fantasy questions about some teams that
are out there. Until next time, guys, be well, our
(26:36):
patron members, hang on and we'll get back to you
in a minute
Good afternoon everyone. It is December sixth, about four point
fifty in the evening. Happy Saturday to everyone. Probably everyone
is watching college football. I live part time here in
North Carolina in the South, and everyone is a college
football fan. I mean, and I'm not at all. I
went to University of Maryland, where football was not a thing.
(00:24):
So though I think they won, they won a bunch
of championships early on, but it was not a very
good team when I was there. It hasn't been a
good team since. So I don't have any knowledge of
college football or anything about anything. Kind of gives me
as an outsider. And I talked about baseball. People look
at me like I have three heads. Having said that,
(00:46):
we went to a kind of a community party last night,
the three or four streets around us. Everybody got together,
you know, the white elephant thing kind of stuff, and
I had four guys come over and want to talk
to me about the World Series. I thought that was
really encouraging. They know I'm in baseball and love baseball,
(01:06):
so they all were very excited about the World Series.
And you know who was this show? Hey Otani? So
I mean, look, they were really basic questions, but I
thought it was really encouraging that maybe here in the
South and North there rural North Carolina's where I lived
out on the beach, so it's rural North Carolina. People
are like, hey, what is this baseball thing? It was
(01:27):
actually kind of cool. So that gave me a little
bit of encouragement to maybe we're starting to see maybe
twenty twenty six will be a pretty exciting season with
more the casual fan being a little bit interested, which
I think is great. People really liked the you know,
as I talk to these four gentlemen, they really liked
(01:48):
the Blue Jays story. I think people love to see
an underdog and an underdog who did so well against
the you know, it used to be the Mighty Yankees.
Now it's the Mighty Dodgers, and it was cool to see.
So I felt really good about that conversation. But I
don't know anything about college football, so I am not
I don't ever turn the TV on on Saturdays. Nothing
(02:11):
there for me. Anyway, Today we are talking prospects. We're
talking the New York Yankees, my home team in when
I'm up in New Jersey, I go to a lot
of Double A affiliated games Eastern League, which I think
is one of the better leagues in baseball. It's a
very fair ballparks except for Reading, which is where the
(02:31):
Philadelphia Phillies play. That's out in Reading, Pennsylvania. That's the
really only hitters ballpark. There's a lot of more pitcher
friendly ballparks. So to get a real sense for hitters
in Double A, because that's usually the challenge area is
usually when pitchers come in or are starting to pitch better,
you're starting to see a lot better breaking pitches, a
(02:53):
lot better control, and you have a sense for whether
these guys are going to hit or not. So I've
seen most every one of these players, some of the
obviously some of the DSL guys have not seen. But
I have a really good sense for most of these players,
everybody but Spencer Jones, who continues to flummex me in
terms of whether I think this guy's actually gonna make
(03:15):
it or not. But uh so, anyway, so let's get started.
As a caveat, I will say that, you know, kind
of a general statement that the Yankees being the maybe
not as popular now as the Dodgers just in point
in time, but I think there's still more Yankees fans
floating around the country and the world than there are
(03:38):
any other baseball teams, So their prospects always get more publicity.
They're always overhyped, they're always over valued. So know that
sometimes it works out and guys become superstars, you know,
the Derek Juters of the world, and sometimes they flame out.
And it seems like more than not they flame out.
And I haven't actually done a style determine if that
(04:01):
is really accurate, but it's just guys come up as
you know, the best things in slice. So take take
a look at Jason Domingez. I mean, it looked like
he could do no wrong as some of the minor
leagues a lot. You know, saw some flaws there, but
you know, it's everybody's talking how great this guy is,
and you take a look at it, and he hit
two forty against left ting at pitching. No slug excuse me,
(04:23):
slug two forty. That's a two followed by a four
two forty against left ting and pitches. They can't hit lefties,
and you know, and so he is a flawed guy,
and it just seems like they that happens all the time.
So kind of bear that in mind that Yankees prospects
in general get overhyped. If you play in a deeper
(04:43):
dynasty league, you're almost always going to have a Yankee
fan and on your team, unless it's a very specific,
geographically based club. So you'll get people moving Yankees prospects
more just because you know they're Yankees fans and they
like to have some other home hometown team players on it.
It's just the way it works, so let's dig into it.
(05:05):
George Lombard Junior. I saw him play probably twenty times,
a couple times in High A, and I saw him
a ton, probably more than I think. I went to
thirty thirty Double A games. I went to a lot
and it was only half. It was only here for
two thirds of the season, so I went to a
lot of games. Wait, the guy looks great in a uniform.
(05:26):
It's the it's a great body. He's really athletic, really
moves well in the you know, shortstop as well, really
fluid emotions. Looks like when he gets off the bus,
you're pointing to that guy and going, I want you.
Quite frankly, he wasn't very good in Double A, and
he struck out more more than I thought he would,
particularly as a season war on. I don't know if
(05:48):
he just got tired, but the swing got a little
longer as the season war on, and he just never
put together. The season looked great in hy A, but
once he got promoted the double A, the game was
a little bit fast for him. And I saw that
because I just saw ball after ball after ball fouled
off and he just could never square up a pitch.
(06:12):
In the futures game, he squared off a pitch. I
think he got a double. That's I mean. When I
saw that on I was watching the game on TV,
I'm like, where'd that come from? Because the doubles I
saw were flayers, you know, just he just never got
a round on pitches, which was really disappointing. So I
still think he's going to be a very good baseball player.
I think there's going to be an impact player and
there I think he's got more power than you think.
(06:33):
He's a plus runner, So I think you have fifteen
to twenty five type of player, fifteen runs, twenty five
stolen bases. I think it's an everyday shortstop that I
think can stay at shortstop. Obviously he can move off
and play center field. He could also you know, private
play any of the outfield positions, play second base, so
there's a lot of opportunities for him to play defensively.
(06:54):
I think he's going to be a very, very good player,
but it was not a good statistical season. Now, if
he's struggles again in twenty twenty six, maybe we'll have
to reevaluate. But him, I still have him as where
do I have him ranked here? I think I've got
bring up. The Yankees have a huge spreadsheet that I
(07:16):
filter to look at everything, and I was actually, who
do know? I had the Tampa Bay raise up. I
have him as a fortieth rank prospect, which he was
the forty second rank prospect at the end of the season.
So he's pretty much stuck to where he was. You know,
the last time I did the evaluation again, I think
it was in August. That is George A. Lombard a
(07:38):
junior number two. I put in Elmer Rodriguez Cruz. I
decided not to put George excuse me, Spencer Jones there.
I put him at number three. I put Elma Rodriguez
Cruz over Carlos Lagrange, and you can argue Carlos Lagrange
has got slightly better stuff, but man, Elma Rodriguez Eerc
(08:01):
is really good. I mean I saw him pitch. I
know I saw pitch once at High A. I think
I thought I saw him pitch four times, maybe five
times in Double A. And I saw him twice in
a week go up against Jonahtong in that Boston Red
Sox series, and I think it was two weeks later,
Jonahtong was in the major leagues, and Jonahton looked great.
(08:24):
He had a great change up, a fastball that just
jumped them, and that Tim Linsacum delivery looked great. Did
not have a slider. Was worried about that when he
got up to the major leagues and it kind of
reared its ugly head. But Elma Rodriguez Cruz and both
those games, absolutely no doubt out pitched him. He was
the better pitcher on the mound. He was the more
(08:44):
athletic guy. He had the better body, he had the
better stuff. He was a better pitcher. And I mean
that's where you take you hear the hype of Jonahtong,
Jonahtong best picture of the minor leagues last season, You
can make that argument. And I saw Erc come in
and pitch better than him. Then I went to a
(09:04):
couple of games after that. ERC pitched just as well.
It's great stuff. Fastball can sneak up the ninety seven.
It's more of it's more of a sinker, so I'm
going to say fastball. It's more as a sinker, so
it's actually tailing away from the hitter. It's got a
lot of natural cut on it. It's got a great
splitter that he uses and can kind of keep glove
(09:26):
side batters at Bay. I think it's a, you know,
a number three starter for sure. It could be a closer.
It's not the greatest delivery. There's some torque in his
in his in his arm swing. He does come a
little lower three quarters delivery, but he's such a big
guy that I think it just gives a little bit
(09:47):
more uniqueness from a look at it as opposed to
a guy that I think has to move to the bullpen.
So I'm I'm arguing starter upside number three starter with
is some potential sailing on top of it. I'm all
in here on Erc. If you don't know the story
behind him. Originally signed by the Boston Red Sox one
(10:10):
for one trading. You never see this between the Red
Sox and the Yankees ERC for all the catcher Navarrees.
So Carlos Navarre has had a great season last year,
and everybody's like, ah, the Red Sox got the better
of it, And I'm watching ERC pitch and going wow,
I think the Yankees got the better end of the deal.
(10:31):
Looks really good. I think we see him next season.
I really do. Number three, Spencer Jones. Do I feel
good about putting him number three? I absolutely do not.
There's a couple guys they just don't know what to do.
Is Xavier isaac Is with the Tampa Bay Rays is
another guy. I don't know how to rank him. Poor
(10:52):
guy had brain surgery at the end of last season.
So I mean, good thing he's still amongst us. I
mean apparently it was a very difficult surge, but you
know that aside, I've never know where to rank him.
I don't know where to put Spencer Jones because the
speed and power is real. Particularly the power is potentially
thirty forty home run poppy. He's a huge man with
(11:16):
a big swing, but when he connects, the ball just
jumps off his bad It's impressive. And even though he's
six foot five six foot six something like that. He
can run. I would put him a little bit faster
than like an Aaron Judge. Aaron Judge is a bigger
man than Spencer Jones, but they're kind of in that
(11:36):
same dartboard area, you know, they're kind of grouped there together,
enormously big human beings. He's in that area. But he's
faster than you think, and so he's athletic. You like
all that, but I hate the swing. The swing is
incredibly long. He's got huge, long arms as opposed Aaron
(11:56):
Judge has shorter arms. Spencer Jones has long arm and
I'm telling it, just when you watch him as much
as I have, it just looks like he's swinging in
slow motion and he's laid on everything. And he got
promoted the Triple A last season. He had that period
over the summertime. I never got a chance to go
up and see him when he was sitting, you know,
(12:18):
up in Scranton, that's where the Triple A affiliate pace.
Because he was on a roll. In a three week
period of time, I think he hit fifteen home runs.
It was crazy, and of course all Yankees fans, like
they do, were screaming and hollering, get him promoted, get
him promoted. Tim and I even talked about it on
the podcast. He was that hot, it was crazy. Woll
I'm striking out forty two percent of the time in
(12:38):
Triple A, you know, so so he and after that,
you know, I say, after the flourish of home runs,
he just started to swing and miss a ton, so
Triple A pitcher started to adapt and started to find
the holes in his swing and they are definitely there.
So from a fantasy standpoint, he could be enormous. He
(13:00):
could be a first round draft pick. He's that kind
of power speed. But if you told me he doesn't
hit enough and winds up following folks out to the
KBO because he can't hit enough, that would not surprise
me at all. I think that the Yankees blew it.
He was all the talk. Was it three years ago
(13:21):
in spring training when he had that period of time
where he was hitting everything, hit everything hard, which he
can do, and everyone was saying, we need to bring
him up. At that point, he had only played in
High A, and let's bring him up. He's going to
be great, and fans were screaming for him, and the
Yankees were getting tons of inquiries about Spencer Jones. I
(13:42):
know this for a fact, and actually because somebody actually
called me up and asked me to do an evaluation
one of the teams. Because I'm like a stringer, so
the teams will call me or reach out to me
and say, hey, we want an unbiased view. Can you
give me your view on Spencer Jones? And I tration
them as you know as as because I had seen
(14:02):
him play it a lot at High Ay and knew
about the long swing, so I knew that teams were
interested in as he was getting off to that you know,
hot start in spring training, and you know, it turns
out that there's concern that he could hit, and that
was the time I think the Yankees should have moved him,
and they just could not pull a deal off, and
(14:24):
they said, no, he's our guy, He's our next Aaron Judge,
and I just don't see it. I could be dead
wrong because he could be a thirty to thirty guy,
but I think he could hit two hundred as well.
So I got him ranked still very high, just because
so many people playing points leagues, so many people batting
(14:45):
average on base percentage not as much of it on
base batting average is the most volatile of any stat
that's out there, because guys like Spencer Jones who hit
the ball as hard as he does, he should be
able to walk around with a you know, a three
forty batting average of balls and plays, particularly when he's
young and athletic. So he could have a three forty
(15:06):
batting average of balls and play, strike out thirty five
percent of the time and still hit two fifty to sixty.
So there is that possibility that and if he hits
two fifty, he'll go thirty. There's a chance to go
thirty thirty or thirty twenty five, something like that, and
there'll be a superstar. I mean, that's that's the kind
of upside, even the guy who strikes out as much
(15:26):
as he does. And that's why I don't want to
drop him back too far. But just no, understand your risk,
understand what's going on with the player, and as long
as you do that, I think you'll be fine with
Spencer Jones. But again, how we how it all, how
this all finalizes, I just don't know. I don't think
(15:47):
anybody knows. I don't think the Yankees know. They know
the talent, but they all also know the deficiencies. Carlos
Lagrange was also impressive. I saw him pitch four or
five times last season. It's electric stuff, better stuff than EERC.
But I think he's going to be more of a closer.
He does not have a pitch to go up against
(16:09):
gloveside batters, and he's big guy. There's going to be
some control issues. There are some control issues. But to me,
if I were the Yankees, I would continue to try
to start him, but throw him in the bullpen, and
I think he hunts in the back of the back
of the bullpen. So both Lagrange and the ERC are
(16:30):
both guys. If I had I would be holding on
to him. I wouldn't think that Carlos Grange is okay.
He's going to be a reliever. It's going to take
him four years to become a closer. If he ever
becomes a closer, I went and look at him that way.
I would look at him as a great arm that's
got tremendous upside. Could be a starter. If he's a starter,
it's a number three, maybe more starter. It's more likely
(16:51):
a closer, but I don't think it'll take long. He's
just going to be a force coming out of that,
coming out of that bullpen. So I'm a big fan
of La Garage. I just like just like Ercie a
little bit better. Had the conversation with my AI assist,
and I can't remember what they said. I've already published
it out to our Patreon members. By the way, if
(17:12):
you like this kind of analysis, you like this kind
of stuff, joining us out of the patreot site, Patrio
in dot com forward slash prospect three sixty one five
dollars a month or fifty it's that fifty four dollars
a year or something like that, you get a week off.
I think that's how it works. One of the guys
(17:33):
that had not seen his number five is Dax Kilby.
Had a great probably the best of the class coming
out of last season's draft in terms of performance. Just
really played well in low way. The data liked him,
and he kind of reminds me the more I hear
about them, the more I look at his data a
(17:54):
little bit like George Lombard Junior, who the Yankees took
him in the first round and everybody went, huh, George
Lombard Junior, who like, why are you taking him in
the first round? And the same thing was a little
bit true with Dax Kilby, like why are you taking
this kid? And it just got off the snide really well.
Sixteen stolen bases in eighteen games, his plus speed. I'm
(18:15):
not sure how much power he's going to have, and
it's going to come down to how much he hits.
And you know, again got off the snide really really
well in the swing, at least looking at it on
television or MiLB feeds. Again, I did not go get
a chance to see him down in Florida, but looks
(18:36):
like it's just like a lot of these guys that
the Yankees have been, the Volpies of the world, and
George Lombard really high baseball IQ smart kids as well.
Lumbard Junior was very academically strong, as was Volpi's. Volpi
was very strong when he was going through Dell Barton.
So that's the high school up in Marsham, which is
(18:56):
where I live up in New Jersey. So these are
really three very similar kind of athletic high baseball HQ guys, grinders,
if you will. And I that's why pushing him up
the five, I just I'm not getting caught up in
the hype here, I'm getting caught up in maybe the
profile of the player reminding me a lot of George
(19:18):
Lombard junior. So yeah, he should be a guy that
goes early in first year player dress, maybe a little
bit earlier than going thirty ninth overall. Coming to number
six was the Yankees first round draft pick in twenty
twenty four. Ben hess I actually didn't like the pick
too much, but I've come around. I got a chance
to see him and both high A and DOUBLEA this
(19:40):
past season. It's a big guy. It's probably going to
be a reliever long term. I still have him as
a number four starter. Does not have the kind of
stuff at all like ERC and lagrange, just more of
a classic ninety three ninety four on our fastball tops
at at ninety five. It's good stuff, good curveball, workable,
(20:04):
decent change up, but it feels and smells a lot
more like a number four starter, kind of in that
Will Warren kind of world. Who I know didn't have
a very good season last year. It looks like he's
probably not even gonna he might move to the bullpen.
That could be where Ben Hesp goes. But I think
it's that kind of world where it's a good enough
arsenal to start decent control, but not plus anywhere across
(20:27):
the board, but still a pretty good pitcher in his
own right. I'm in a couple of leagues and I'm
not going to drop him, if that means anything to you, guys.
Number seven is Bryce Cunningham, Yankee second round pick in
twenty twenty four. Another guy saw in pitching Higa and
it was actually pretty impressed. Fastball did touch ninety six
(20:48):
when I saw him. I've got him down as an
up to ninety seven. I got some work from some
other evaluators who saw him get up to ninety seven.
It's a great change up, which means he's gonna move
through the system relatively quickly. The change up was pretty
unhittable in high A, so I'm assuming the same thing
will happen once he gets up to double A, which
I'll probably get a chance to see multiple innings out
(21:10):
of him. He's a guy that's more available in dynasty
leagues than Ben Hess, and the upside it's probably a
little bit higher than Ben Hess at the moment. Why
I have Hess in front of Bryce Cunningham, Maybe it's
his pedigree. First round versus second round. Maybe I should
have changed that. Maybe I should change that. Cumnor eight
(21:31):
is Chase Hampton didn't play still just I mean, injuries
have just stalled his career. Before his career, he looked
like a good number four starter. Doesn't have anything plus
good four quality pitches, decent control and command. But I
mean he needs to skip back out and pitch, and
I think that's the thing that we're waiting for. So
(21:52):
I know a lot of people have him indynasty leagues,
but he's definitely dropped as a guy that was probably
a top two hundred performer, top one fifty. I got
him at two eighty four now, so he's really dropping
just because he hasn't played. Number nine is probably the
sleeper in the organization as Dylan Lewis got a chance.
(22:14):
I saw him play I think two or three times.
I don't love the swing, but I got him as
a sixty sixty five runner. Go in the first base
and that's how you time him. There's a less than
four seconds from the left side, and you're an eighty
grade runner four point one from the right side, and
you take it down a tenth of a tenth of
a second and that gives you sixty seventy runner, eighty runner,
(22:38):
et cetera. We actually use now data on Baseball Savanta
to actually break the numbers down, but in the minor leagues,
and then when you're looking at guys in the combines,
that's what you're grading them on is how they're getting
out of the box, which isn't completely fair because if
you're not good at stealing bases and you're really fast,
sometimes that doesn't work. And managers you care about if
(23:01):
they're going to steal bases, not their raw speed. I
have a tendency to go. If you've got raw speed,
somebody will teach you how to steal bases, which is
generally true. Doesn't always make it true because it is
a skill that you have to learn, and some guys
never learned that skill. But anyway, I digress. But Dylan
Lewis is he hit what was a twenty two Let's see,
(23:25):
he went twenty two home runs and twenty five stolen bases.
I don't see a twenty two home run hitter at all.
I see more of above average power. Its good bat speed,
not great bat speed. He's not a big He's not
all that big. I mean He's a good sized kid,
but I see more like fifteen ish type of home
runs with definitely twenty plus stolen bases. Again, don't love
(23:47):
the swing. He might get exposed when he gets up
to double A with stuff on the inside. We have
to know that. But if he's available in your Dynasty league,
and I think he's a guy that's been a big
mover here for at least for me, I've got him
at three nine, just about where he was at the
end of the season. I might even try to move
him up a little bit as I finalize my top
five hundred. Again that you get that as you're a
(24:08):
Patreon member that officially will be dropping sometime in January.
I might get it out a little bit earlier, but
I need to kind of run through and rework some
of the stuff that as I do these top twenties,
I look, you know, just like Dylan Lewis, I look
at him and maybe he should be a little higher.
(24:29):
Kyle Carr is a lefty, a little bit more command
and control. Saw him pitch in high eight, did not
see him pitch in double A. You again, a third
round pick in twenty twenty three, top that at ninety
four when I saw him really get stuff hard to
pick up. He once he got the double A, he
did struggle in eight fifty six or eight. When I
(24:50):
saw him in high A. Look he looked decent, but
I put him more as a back of the rotation guy.
Sequences the ball as well, but I think once he
gets it's the better pitch. Once it gets the better hitters,
and we see that in double A he might get exposed.
And sure enough in his first three starts, which again
terribly small sample size, he was struggling a little bit
(25:10):
with with his with his stuff. I just don't know
if the stuff is good enough for him to pitch
at the highest level. But you know, it's still something
there that I think Dynasty League managers need to be
made aware of. Hold on for a second, I just
spilt something here. Okay, I'm back everyone, Sorry about that.
It's trying to get a drink of water and then
(25:32):
wound up spilling it all over all over everything. So
but anyway, that is our top ten. I am going
to close this out for the public, and again I'll
take a quick break and then when I get back,
we will do the remaining ten. And there's some good
players remaining ten for our patron members. Again, if you
(25:54):
want to support Tim and I, join us out of
the patreonsit pat r o n dot com forwards last
Prospect three sixty one. Tim and I be back tomorrow,
which we're what are we doing? Oh? I think we're
going to be reviewing some of the trades and acquisitions
that were done this past week. And then fantasy questions
(26:15):
of the Mets Phillies And is that true? Now? I
don't know. I just wrote the notes up. I can't
I wrote the notes up about so let me see. No,
I just sent them to them. I don't know. Something.
It'll be good, some fantasy questions about some teams that
are out there. Until next time, guys, be well, our
(26:36):
patron members, hang on and we'll get back to you
in a minute
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