2276 - 2026 Tampa Bay Rays Top 10 Prospects

The following prospects are discussed:

1. Theo Gillen (OF)
2. Carson Williams (SS)
3. Xavier Isaac (1B)
4. Aidan Smith (OF)
5. Daniel Pierce (SS)
6. Santiago Suarez (RHP)
7. Yoniel Curet (RHP)
8. TJ Nichols (RHP)
9. Brody Hopkins (RHP)
10. Gary Gill Hill (RHP)

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Good afternoon everyone. It is December eleventh, about two twenty
in the afternoon. Hope everyone is doing well. I have
made my way back up to New Jersey to spend
the holidays in January and February, so most of the
winter in New Jersey. For some reason, trying to be snowbirds,

(00:20):
We've decided to spend the winter in New Jersey, which
makes absolutely no sense, but that's what you got when
you got grandkid's birthdays in early February. So but glad
to be back. Safe travels and all of that did
wrench my back somehow someway, but I'm a little bit
down on my back. So if I sound a little cranky,

(00:43):
that is why Tim is doing a slow draft as
we speak. And I know he got if we listened.
If you recall on Sunday, he wanted to get tatist
Junior and Kyle Tuckers is won too, and that's exactly
what he did. He was picking on the wheel. So
successful in doing that. And as I've been putting out

(01:05):
my targets for Patreon members, he has been using those
targets because he has grabbed a bunch of them, so
which is pretty cool. So he's been able to tap
into those some of those, particularly in second base, which
is pretty ugly in drafts. He's been able to fish
around in some of the guys that I suggested I

(01:28):
might be have some value a little bit later on.
So he is I think in the seventh, eighth, ninth
round something like that. So he need some pitching. Though
he went two outfielders and they went another outfielder and
a pitcher in the third round, so he thinks that
outfield is really really shallow, and I haven't done the
outfield for the draft target jet haven't analyzed that. I'm

(01:50):
working on third base as we speak, and that should
be out tomorrow. Then I'll take the weekend off and
do shortstop and outfield in pitching next week. So if
you are interested to join us at the Patren site
patr o n dot com forward slash Prospect through sixty one.
You get all of the prospect work, you get all
of draft targets, you get extensive, more extended kind of

(02:14):
work with Tim and his draft prep which starts to
come out on Sunday. So that should all be there.
What else can I tell you? I think that's it.
So today we're talking about the Tampa Bay Rays prospects.
I've got twenty five. I believe twenty four to twenty

(02:36):
five something like that. One of the deeper farm systems
and all of base always is that case. It was
twenty twenty four at the trade deadline is when they
sold off a lot of guys and brought and brought
players in, and so they're pretty deep. They've already spun
off a couple of guys, one guy from my top ten,

(02:58):
yon elk Curate, who went off. It's probably going to
pitch out of the bullpen, I would think this season
for the Philadelphia Phillies. I thought it was a nice
gift for the Phillies. But the problem is the Rays
have just so much talent in their organization that they
can't possibly keep everybody on the forty man roster. It's

(03:18):
an interesting squad where the Rays have the last ten
years fifteen years have really focused their pictures on control.
They want guys that are athletic, that can repeat their delivery,
who have elite control, and they believe they can teach
them splitters and change ups and help them with help

(03:43):
them with throwing a wide enough arsenal to be too
complete pictures, but they're looking for guys that can throw
strikes or I guess I mean not necessarily drafting and
acquiring guys that throw strikes, but have the skill set
to be able to or strikes and then they turn
them as strike throws. That's that's what they've done at

(04:03):
the major league levels, that's what they're doing at the
minor league level, and that's if you take a look
at those guys that picture them, that's typically what it is.
So you're going to hear me talk about a lot
of those pictures and that guys they're hitters. They used
to be more high floor, lower high floor, and low
ceiling kind of guys, but that has shifted. They are

(04:24):
swinging for the fences and I can't quite figure that out.
I mean, Carson Williams is a great example of a
guy who flat out can't hit, but it's got tools galore.
Xavier Isaac is a three true outcome player with a
little bit of speed if he stays in shape. So
it's just I mean, as we go through all of

(04:45):
these guys, I mean, that's going to be the theme
for the hitters, more toolsy guys, really interesting fantasy players.
That's why I've got twenty four to twenty five of them,
because they're from a fantasy standpoint, you've got to talk
about those guys have speed and power, but there's somebody
on might just worry if they're going to hit it
off to actually make it so anyway, So that looks

(05:09):
like how they've decided to in this current incarnation of
their minor league squad. That's how they are developing their players,
and the proof is in the pudding. Let's get at it.
THEO Gillian is their number one prospect, and I think
he's the clear number one. He was the first overall

(05:30):
pick in twenty twenty four, number eighteenth overall high school kid,
and was one of the more athletic kids, which again
goes to their model of bringing athletic kids that have
speed and power. Came in as drafted as a shortstop,

(05:50):
but quickly moved to center field. He did hurt his
arm during his draft year in his senior year or so,
it the strength has yet to come back, so it
looks like he's either going to play left field or
center field, and I think with his speed he should
be able to play a really good center field. So
I think that's where he's going to land up. He

(06:13):
is a plus runner, a seventy grade runner, so there
is twenty twenty five maybe thirty stolen base potential there.
I love the bat speed. I think he will develop
fifteen ish, maybe even twenty home runs fully developed. If
you tell me that in twenty twenty eight, twenty nine
when he's coming up he's a twelve home run twenty

(06:34):
five stolen based guy that can hit, I wouldn't all
be surprised. I think that's who the player is, A
really good prospect and somebody that has rarely talked about.
That's part of the reason he's so far away. And
as we know the Rays, another one of their tenets
of development is a go a level of a time.
So he should spend most, off not all, the season

(06:56):
twenty twenty sixth season in High A. He'll spend most,
if not all, the twenty twenty seven season in Double A,
and then hopefully gets a chance to be up in
twenty twenty eight. Is he'll split his time between Triple
A and the major leagues. Now, could that accelerate, sure,

(07:19):
but it's not typical of the way the Rays like
the role. It could be that he doesn't see the
big leagues in twenty twenty nine, So if you decide
it's a roster him in the Dynasty League, you have
got to be patient. Coming. Number two is Carson Williams.
As I said in the intro, incredible tools. I mean
it's twenty twenty for sure. Twenty three here runs. He

(07:41):
posted twenty twenty season the minor league. Twenty three here runs,
twenty two stolen bases. He earned a September call up.
He struck out forty two percent of the time. He go, wow,
how did he do in the minor leagues? That was
thirty four percent strikeout rate. It's just, I mean, it's
huge swing and miss in his game. But the fantasy
tools are very But that's what we all thought about

(08:02):
Sam Hilliard. That's a perfect example of what is the
potential there with Carson Williams. But Sam Hilliard is just
signed with the KBO. And that happens because Sam Hillier
could never hit, and that is looking more and more
like the case with Carson Williams. He just can't pick
up spin. He's got a huge oh swing rate, which

(08:23):
is a chase rate, so he's always expanding the strike
zone and it's just not coming together for him. I mean,
it's just the bottom line. But you can't really drop
him in dynasty leagues or you sell low on him,
because he could easily be a twenty twenty guy at
twenty five twenty five guys. He does hit the ball
hard enough that he's going to prop up his babbit.

(08:45):
So for some years he could hit two fifty to
sixty and look like, you know, a third round pick.
But just no, until he learns it might not be possible.
But until he learns the strike zone better. This is
a dicey guy from a hit tool standpoint, and that's
just the way it is. It's also a great defender.

(09:06):
That's also why you keep them, keep them there because
I mean, you know, one scenario is his defense will
keep him up in the major leagues. The speed and
power will be intriguing enough for the Rays to keep
him in the lineup, but he'll just bat eighth in
the lineup, and you know that'll hurt his overall production.

(09:26):
But he could still have a career. So Carson Williams
is not at the elite elite level. I never had
him up there ever, just because I was worried about
the hit too, but from a fantasy standpoint, you still
got you still have to consider him given the loudness
of those tools. Number three is Xavier Isaac. Should I
throw enough picture in there? I mean, there's some really

(09:48):
good pictures coming up, and plus you got next Aiden
Smith and Daniel Pearce. Interesting. I don't know what happened
with Isaac. He had a bunch of injuries last year,
went on the IL in July I believe was an
elbow or wrist injury, and then he didn't play for
the entire season. I just assume when I wrote this up,

(10:11):
you know, it was some kind of tendon issue. It
turned out he had some kind of surgery that needed
to get some type of brain surgery that was nothing
related to baseball. It was I'm assuming a tumor of
some type that had to be removed. Haven't heard whether
it's cancers. But I don't know anything. Haven't heard any
of those details have been released. All I know is

(10:33):
he's recovered well and is expected to continue playing baseball,
which is the best news of all, but obviously scared
to his development, his life, and you know, I think,
you know, you have to feel for the kid and
you know, and now he's got to turn his attention
back to focus on becoming a major league baseball player.

(10:55):
The skills are there, it's more of a three true
outcome player. There's a ton of swim and miss in
his game. He swings really hard to swing as long
as I'm of the Fall league. He did have crazy
stolen bases in twenty twenty four, and he is pretty athletic,
I will give him that. And he when he lost
a little bit away in twenty twenty four and got
the better shape, it's part of the reason for some

(11:17):
stolen bases. He's a decent first basement, so there's some
skill outside of the raw power. It's this tremendous swing
and miss in his game, but he will work a walk.
And those guys always sound like, you know, the the
gold standard is Kyle Schwarber. That's who those guys can
turn into. But that's one out of one hundred, one

(11:40):
out of a thousand, I mean, those are I mean,
those are definitely lofty goals and one that you know
usually doesn't work out and it has a tendency to
turn into Joey Gallow. Just to use a little bit
of older players and older patterns there and now Joey
Gallo is his agent of Scott Barrs. So I was

(12:02):
on Scott bars Is saying there's a lot of interest
in Joey Gallow this off season as a pitcher. Joey
Gallah always had a seventy arm so but I think
he's up the ninety five with his fastball. So maybe
he can't be developed as a pitcher, but as a hitter,
just never could hit. And that could be the case
with Xavier Isaac. I will say if Isaac does not

(12:24):
learn to make better contact, it's going it could be
a high peak with a lot of home runs, but
it could be a short career too. Because those guys,
I know they're not a diamond dozen, but it feels
like they're a diamond dozen and if typically when they
get expensive, they get moved and that's just it. But
I still like Xavier Isaac. He's been for those who've

(12:46):
read my material for years. No, I've been hot and cold,
cold and hot on Xavier Isaac and I'm still that way.
Aiden Smith brought over from the Randy Rose Arena trade
with Seattle. He's a kid that's still got a lot
of intrigue. Twenty twenty five, he at fourteen home runs,
he sold forty one basis he only got caught six times,

(13:09):
so there's good solid eggs and velocities. He does strike
out too much. In fact, he has struck out a lot
more in twenty twenty five than he ever has and
part of the reason he's gotten really passive at the plate,
so he's letting a lot of good pitches pass by
getting into four hitting counts and then there's a ton
of swing and missing his game. But I still like

(13:30):
him as a power speed guy. In fact, you can
argue he should be ahead of Xavier Isaac and maybe
even ahead of Carson Williams in this list from a
fantasy standpoint, because fantasy skills rival that of Carson Williams.
It's just he might be a better hitter. But Carson
Williams has already made it to the show. We know

(13:51):
more about what he has and when he needs to
work on. There's still a lot of unknown jet about
Aiden Smith coming in it. Next. Let of why I'm
on my let me move over to the site so
I can actually see these guys and their numbers. I
don't have a number to my Microsoft word thing here.
Number four was Aiden Smith. Number five comes into Daniel Pierce,

(14:15):
who was their first first pick, number fourteen overall. Congratulations
to the White Sox by the way, they win the
number one overall pick in the twenty twenty six draft.
But Pierce is pretty good as goes with the case
with the Rays big tools. He needs to learn to

(14:36):
recognize spend better and we just don't know what we have.
But he did sign for a little underslot, actually a
million dollars under slot. But he is you know, he
could be a guy that's interesting in the second round
for first year player drafts. Good on base percentage, good speed,

(14:57):
needs to you know, cut down on a strikeout, needs
to get the ball up in the air a little
bit more, but those are all things. He's a high
school kid, so it's an interesting guy for me. And
again he's drafted at fourteenth, which should make him a
top twenty drafted player. He's not been one of the

(15:18):
big guys talked about, so I think he'll drop a
little bit. Plus with all the Asian kids coming over,
they're going to jump in before him, so he could
be a really nice early second round pick. My favorite
pitcher in the organization is Santiago Suarez. In terms of control,
he's got one of the best control arms in the
minor leagues with better stuff than you think. His fastball,

(15:40):
we's off at it ninety seven. He's got high RPMs
on his fastball, which means again higher RPMs. The ball
is going as a backspin on the ball, which means
it's going to ride through the zone a little bit
more than something that doesn't have as much backspin. It's
defying gravities, goes through there and your brain is thinking

(16:02):
the ball is going to drop. The ball doesn't drop
any swing right through it. That's the thing that we
have learned over the last five to seven years, starting
with the Houston Astros when they acquired Garrett Cole and
they had him start to fastball up in the zone,
curveball down to the zone, and that's what made Garrett

(16:23):
Cole a three hundred million dollar pitcher. And when asked,
that's when we started to learn about RPMs. That's also
when we started to learning about sticky stuff as well,
if you recall, because everybody's using the sticky stuff to
get more RPMs on there to get that revolution going
a lot more, creating a lot more backspen, so you
get even more right through the zone. But then as

(16:49):
those guys that were using a lot of stick them
in a lot of other substance, they started to fall off.
And now we've now seen a lot of guys that
just have natural using with big hands, just an natural
ability to spend the ball. Uh and Suarez is one
of those guys, and I like to picture a lot.
I think there he's a number three starter with upside
and a really low risk, high floor guy because he

(17:11):
just flat out throws strikes. You all know, curate now
with the with the Philadelphia Phillies. Doesn't have the as
good as stuff, doesn't have as good as control as
Uh Suarez, but better stuff. It's a big fastball, a
great slider. So he is destined to be in the bullpen.

(17:33):
Perhaps the Philadelphia Phillies can teach a change up or
a splitter with him, but until that happens, I think
he is in the bullpen. But a very very interesting arm. TJ. Nichols,
A lot of these guys Nichols and Brody Hopkins and
well those two guys really good arms, better stuff than Suarez.

(17:53):
But in TJ. Nichols place. He needs a better change up,
and there is some concern about his delivery and whether
he's ever going to be able to throw enough strikes
to be as consistent strike thrower. So I think there
is some bullpen risk there, but it's really good stuff

(18:14):
and I have them in a bunch of leagues to
back that up. And then Brody Hopkins, I think I
saw Baseball America had the number one overall in the
ray system, and I got him down at number nine.
I think he's a reliever. It's a lower three quarters
delivery and I just can't put even though I love
the arm, and he's still on a lot more strike

(18:35):
so he's definitely come up in my eyes. But I
definitely I do believe he's going to be more of
a reliever than a starter. And I just can't put
a reliever as you know, your top guy unless you're
the Los Angeles Angels. Just can't do it. But like
the player a lot. And then number ten is Gary
gil Hill gg H. It was the biggest mover last season,

(18:57):
and again I still have that left to do. I
got to get them a draft targets next, and then
I forell all of the different teams. I promise to
put the biggest mover, the biggest dropper, and the emerging
prospect for all that. I have promised to do that,
and I will do it. But Gary Gilhill has got
elite control as well. It doesn't have as good as

(19:17):
stuff as Suarez, but I do like the ability for
him to turn into high end number four, low win
number three starter. It's a really strong top ten. I'm
going to cut it off here now and record the
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(19:39):
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(20:02):
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(20:22):
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(20:45):
So hopefully you will take us up on that offer,
and I would be back on Sunday where we're doing
catchers and talking about all the signings for that was
in the trades that were done at the winter meeting.
It's kind of nice. Up ours has learned the program,
finally got the Alonso signed up and the Orioles. Why

(21:07):
the hell are the Orioles signing a thirty one thirty
two year old first base when our patron members have
my thoughts on there, Tim and I love to hear
his thoughts. I'm sure Tim has got it because I
still think they need a picture, but so far, they
got a closer in a first baseman. I guess if
you're an Orioles fan, which my wife is a big
Oriols fan, her comment to me is, hey, at least

(21:29):
they're spending money for that. You have to agree with her.
They are spending money something they have not done in
the Rubinstein era, so it's good to see them doing that.
Doesn't make a whole lot of sense, and I think
at some point we got to take a look at
the Mets, Like the Mets have lost a lot of players.
You know, Diaz did not sign back with him. You

(21:52):
get Devin Williams for Edwin Diaz. Is that a fair trade?
I don't think so. So ah, maybe they're gonna finally
rely on some of these young kids to come up
and really perform the Jet Williams of the world and
the Carson Binge. But it's, you know, a from a

(22:12):
major league standpoint, it's not the same team as they
were last year. And maybe purposely that's why the Mets
have done it, because they didn't make the playoffs last
year and really underperformed in the second half of the season,
So maybe that was purposely. It's like, hey, these guys
didn't work out, let's go with some of the kids.
I would love love to see that because I think

(22:33):
there's kids deserve a shot and they're going to be
good as Tim and I. If you called our podcast
last week, we talked about the Mets. It's a really
really good system anyway. So that's all coming up on Sunday.
We'll see then if our patron members hang on and
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and then I'll be right back