Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
Good morning everyone. It is Saturday, the thirteenth of December,
about ten thirty in the morning. Hope everyone is having
a wonderful Saturday morning. It is cold here and we're
actually up in the northeast now drove back to New Jersey,
so it's actually going back in my town in North Carolina.
(00:24):
I think tomorrow it's going to be twenty one degrees,
which is crazy, so where everybody's worried about their pipes
breaking posting, so might need to call it down and
have somebody check on our house as we're up here.
But hope everyone is getting ready for Christmas. If you
celebrate Christmas. I've got the Hallmark Channel in the background,
(00:45):
a Caburd Lacey movie about Christmas in Scotland. I've actually
seen it before. It's actually quite good. Speaking of quite good,
don't think less of me. The Taylor Swift docuseriies debuted
yesterday on Disney. It's fantastic. What She's just an impressive,
(01:08):
impressive person. I don't know what else to say. I mean,
it's just it's her maturity at thirty six and business
savvy is just remarkable. Yeah, music is just okay, but
it's it's a whole phenomenon. I coourage you to watch it.
If you haven't actually seen the concert, I encourage you
to watch it. The technology and the stuff that's involved
(01:28):
in that is just crazy cool. So but so I
watched that last night and Christmas shows this morning and
this afternoon, and then I think we're going to the
Nutcracker late this afternoon. So getting into the full Christmas
spirit here. Talking about Christmas spirit, we are doing the
Toronto Blue Jays prospect list today. It's not a very
(01:50):
strong list by any stretch. Made it to the World Series,
so what do they care. But you know, they had
that great class coming up of Vlad Junior and Bobaschet
kind of came up together. And obviously I'm not sure
if Bobachet's going to stay with the Blue Jays, but
the Blue Jays are making some noise and Trey Y
(02:12):
Savage played a huge role coming up from the minor league.
So but you know, there's a handful of guys that
are really interesting. In fact, they love Jojo Parker, their
first round draft pick from last season or back in July.
But overall it's pretty down. I mean, for our Patreon members,
I'll do all twenty, but the back half is really weak.
(02:35):
Probably should have included a few more international guys, but
I didn't. I went more heavy and the drafted players
and might have a chance. But it's in general pretty weak.
But there are some interesting guys at the top of
the first guy is the one I've already mentioned. That's
Trey Y Savage. Still qualifies as a prospect as he
(02:55):
was under the forty five day limit being in the
major leagues service time. I'm and under fifty innings pitched
a from a performance standpoint, obviously, was very very good
last season. An interesting guy that it's a Jim Palmer
over the top delivery, always from the stretch, so it's
(03:17):
a kind of an old school delivery that you see
for him. But because of the delivery, he gets incredible
ride through the zone and nineteen and a half inches
of invertical inverted vertical break which allows that fastball to
stay up in the zone a lot longer. And if
(03:39):
you take a look at his if you go to
Baseball Savona, they got the little wheel on the right
side and you see his four seamer. It's only three
pitches for steamer, slider, and split. He doesn't really have
anything that goes north to south. Everything is up in
that upper quadrant zone, which is the one thing you
have to be a little bit worried about. But that
(03:59):
fast way up in the zone, so it's staying up
there and consequently gets a twenty one percent a twenty
one percent rate on it. The splitter is nasty. I mean,
look at that breake on it, all the way over
at about fifteen inches, diving in to away from gulfside batter,
(04:21):
so left handed batter, so he is really tough to
hit for left handed hitters. The slider, though, actually falls
away as well. It's you know, usually you're seeing the
slider dive away more from right hand at batters, but
his doesn't. His is actually sitting in that same upper quartile.
(04:44):
But it got a thirty percent WFF rate. But if
I'm being honest that I mean that slider does not
look great even though has the great wiff rate on it.
I mean, he just doesn't have anything that is going
away from right handed hitters. Everything is staying in so
everything's diving into that and everything is running away from
(05:06):
left handed hitters. You can say, well that will work,
but what will happen is right handed batters will start
to make some adjustments, start to bring their hands in,
and you could see them start to hit tray you
savage a little bit more. The same thing is going
to be true with left handed batters. They'll realize they'll
be able to get their arms extended and that potentially
(05:26):
you could start to see balls hit a long way.
So they're his pitch shapes. This is what we refer
to as pitch shapes. Everything is kind of breaking the
same way, located in the same zone, doesn't have anything
going north to south. Well, and you know, so you know,
(05:49):
I'm gonna stop short of saying this is the top
of the rotation guy. It is a great splitter, and
with a great splitter, those things are tough to pick up.
But I'm going to say the the Major League Baseball
players will start to figure him out the more they
see him. So if you look at his eas three
twenty one of his expected the RA is actually four
(06:09):
or five. I think that expected the RA is probably
more reasonable. So I'm thinking he is more of a
solid number three starter, maybe with some upside as opposed
to a guy I think that's going to be an ace.
Just looking at the data that's what the data is
telling me that slider really needs to get better break
(06:29):
on it. Again, it's just not it's not breaking away.
It's only a halfful of those pitches that are actually
falling in the other part of the of the quadrant. Again,
you want to have those running away from armside batters,
which are your right hand at batters. And so but
he does throw strikes. Let's see what his strikeout rate
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was in the minor leagues. It actually just flew through
the minor league. So and it's on the back of
that slide in the back of this sitter. I mean again,
when you get a really good change up or splitter,
they're both acting the same way. Splitter actually has a
little bit more downward pressure on it it. Yeah, I mean,
it could be a really tough pitch to hit. So yeah,
(07:14):
I mean I'm looking at see in MiLB three point
seven to seven over twenty five games. So it's a
below average, slightly blow average control that he has, so
I would expect that to be a little bit better.
So again, a guy it's got a great fastball because
(07:36):
of the high back spin on it, and a great splitter,
but really doesn't have a slider per se. So I
think eventually that's that's going to come back to haunt him,
and I think teams will figure that out. So long
kind of winded analysis of trey Ya Savage, and if
you like that kind of stuff, there's Baseball Savant breakdowns.
(07:57):
I do them all the time for a patren members
to join us out there Patrio n dot com Forward
slash Prospect three sixty one, So I do that kind
of stuff all the time. So I got completely distracted
in terms of looking at the notes and the player
profiles and kind of taking a look at Traya Savage.
So I have his fantasy see only his top forty
(08:18):
five starting pitcher with some upside. I still think that's fair,
but I think I've given you my concerns there with
tray You Savage. Number two is r John Namala, their
first round draft pick in twenty twenty three. Really tooled
up kid, particularly from a power standpoint. Hits the ball
really hard, excellent bat speed, but still a raw player.
(08:40):
We started to see some better contact rates when he
started off the season, but after the promotion to Hya,
we kind of fell back into a little bit more
swing and missing his game. He also didn't hit knowing
was two twenty four batting average. But if we take
a look at his bab at two sixty six and
a guy that swings that hard and has that kind
(09:05):
of bat speed, you would expect him to be able
to carry fairly high batting average of balls in place.
So what that probably implies without watching a ton of
his games is there's a lot of weak contact, a
lot of just missing the core of the ball, and
I think as he gets his timing a little bit better,
you're going to start to see him driving even more
(09:25):
more pitches. He swiped seventeen of twenty basis, so there's
clearly some skills there. He's far from a burner, but
I think there's going to be big boy power there.
I think it's gonna be twenty twenty five home run pop,
you know. I think the question is going to come
down to how much he hits, and it could just
take him a few more years to kind of hone
that skill down. And I think from a stolen based standpoint,
(09:48):
you're probably looking at long term five to ten, ten
to twelve type of thing, maybe a little bit more
early in his career, but it's a chance to be
a really good shortstop, power hitting shortstop, and that's kind
of where my thought process is there. I have his
ETA at twenty twenty seven, maybe even a little bit
(10:09):
further than that, so still a work in progress. Jojo Parker.
When I wrote up my notes for the draft, I
had him down a little bit two primary reasons. One
he was a little bit older in the draft, and
two is Mississippi kid. And there's a lot of historical
reference to kids coming up through these poor states in
(10:30):
the Deep South, primarily Mississippi, and scouts always to kind
of push those guys a little bit lower, just because
the competition down there is not as great. The socio
economic type of realities of those poorer states, they just
(10:50):
don't have the kind of training programs and so forth.
But that's not the case with Parker. Came from a
very well off family. They sent him off to a
lot of camps, a lot of out of state perfect
game type events and so forth, so he's been able
to have the best of the best training. And Scouts
(11:11):
kind of talked to me about that and just said,
don't underestimate this guy. The skill sets are there. Yes,
he is a little bit older, but the upside is there,
so I've moved him up good tools so far, has
stayed healthy and I think the Toronto Blue Jays will
(11:31):
start him in low way to begin the season, so
I have moved him up on my first year player draft.
Ricky Tieterman still kicking around. Didn't play coming back from
Tommy John surgery. I'm not even sure he is just
not pitched much at all since he was the first
round draft pick, so this could be just an artifact
(11:53):
that is not playing well. I mean looking at his
two thy twenty so he was drafted in twenty one,
twenty twenty two seventy eight innings, twenty twenty three forty
four innings, twenty twenty four seventeen innings, and he didn't
play last season, So I mean, you're still betting on
(12:16):
the com that of the first round pedigree. It's got
really good stuff, but coming back from Tommy John surgery,
there is huge risk over all over here. Now if
I don't own Ricky Teeterman in any league, but if
I did, I would be holding on to him to
the first part of the season to see how he performs.
He should be back the first start of the season.
(12:39):
I think I actually saw a citation that said he
was not going to be limited during spring training. But
you love the fact that he's from the left side.
If you can get the fastball back up the ninety
eight miles an hour, I mean, those are rare breeds
lefties that throw that hard. So I think they're still
pretty high upside with Ricky Tieterman. But the health risk
(13:01):
is clear. Just hasn't pitched and hopefully the Tommy John
surgery the last couple of years that's been his problem,
and now that he has that out of the way,
we'll start to see the promise fulfilled. Number five is
Johnny King almost put him in front of Ricky Tieterman.
It probably should have third round pick. In twenty twenty four,
another lefty signed for well over slought a one point
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two four million dollars over slot. Got good stuff, average
fastball ninety three and a half touches ninety five and
a half miles an hour, really good curveball, and change
up is starting to flash a little bit. It's a
guy that's still a projectable left handed What does that mean?
Needs going to He needs to put on weight, and
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as he puts on weight, the physicality will come out,
he should throw harder, et cetera. So Johnny King is
a kid that I added to a number of dynasty
leagues and I'm pretty excited about that. He just turned
nineteen in July, so I think the there's more velocity
to come can throw strikes. I just think it's it's
(14:07):
at least a number of high end number four, maybe
a mid rotation starter, maybe a little bit more as
he gets going through the upper levels of the minor league.
So Johnny King is one of the more interesting guys
in this entire system. Jo Hendrick Bonada, maybe I'm dead
wrong on this guy. Took him forever to get out
(14:28):
of High A. Three years in High A, and he
finally got out. Once he got out, he started to
really play well. It's not a big kid, five foot ten.
I don't think there's a ton of power. He can
really hit, makes really good contact, a little bit of speed,
So it's more of a twelve twelve type of player.
But he's getting very, very close. The part of his
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issue might be now with the Toronto Blue Jays, they're
in it to win it, and would they give you
Hendrick a shot in the big leagues. I don't know,
maybe they learned their lessons from Ernie clements of the
world that you give these guys that don't look like
superstars and opportunity. Particularly, these guys can hit and they
(15:13):
usually outperform their ceilings, and that could be the case
with Panago. So I did add him to a couple
of dynasty leagues, primarily because he is close to the
major leagues and should see Toronto or be part of
a trade to see some other organization's major league squad.
In twenty twenty six, Charles McAdoo probably, if I'm being honest,
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it's probably utility guy. But sixty grade runner can play
all over the place, third base, outfield, played a little
bit of first play, first base, swing decisions. I mean,
he will expand the strike zone, swing, you know, swing
at some balls out of the strike zone. But you know,
(15:58):
overall it's you know, it's hecent kind of skill sets,
particularly from a fantasy standpoint. But if I'm being honest,
it's more of a utility guy. And this is just
what happens. I think you get down to number five.
I do like the top five players a lot. In
the Toronto Blue Jays. Hendrick pinad is probably a stretch
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for you know, a top two hundred type of player,
and then you start to get down to McAdoo and Cage.
Stanford had a really good season, but he's probably a reliever.
But it posted a two eighty six and eer and
twenty seven appearance is sixteen starts, one hundred and sixty
one strikeouts, and one hundred and ten innings. All that
is good. Got a good sinker, so it looks like
(16:43):
he's had a step up season. We probably need to
see that again, but you could see him in the
back half of the season up in Toronto's He's a
name to kind of keep keep track of. Should he
be in front of these other two guys maybe, but
take the hitter over the pitcher, and that's why I
ranked him a little bit lower. We see where I
have all of these guys ranked. Bring that up. As
(17:07):
i'm bringing that up, I'll continue on with the list here,
coming at number nine as Jake Cook, who yes speed
guy with these kids that weren't first round picks, and
he went number eighty one. All those guys went to
the Combines and he was one of those guys that
(17:28):
really popped up at the Combines and did very well
and primarily in the back of his speed and so
eighty grade runner for sure. So there's going to be
a ton of stolen bases in his profile, which from
a fantasy standpoints you love. I mean, he is a
high school kid, obviously had a really good senior year.
(17:51):
The question is is he going to I get the
tool summaries not right, so I got to go and
fix that. Sometimes my software, when I put stuff into
the tool summary, they get put the wrong tool summary
in there, so I have him underrate at lefty. So
I've got to go out and fix that. But anyway,
there could be something there, and it might be a
(18:12):
guy that you can get late in first year player drafts.
Sean Keys third base and first baseman, big power guy,
high end exit velocity. Can he hit? And I think
that's the big question. Twenty two percent strikeout rate of
sixteen point three percent walk rate but a two forty
four Babbitt which really doesn't match the high end exit
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velocities that we're seeing off of him. So I think
there's thirty harm run ceiling. But I think as he
gets up to double A, I think we'll get exposed
in double A. And I think you're going to see
a lot more strikeouts occur. So from a Toronto Blue
Jays standpoint, let me go to I am putting my
draft targets together. So I've got first base, second base,
(18:58):
third base, and catchers done, so over halfway done. Going
to do shortstop this week and so that should be
out on Monday, and then I've got probably the rest
of the week I'll be working on outfielders and starting pitchers.
So by any I should be able to have everything
done by Christmas. So hopefully you'll start to get in
some early early draft and hold league. She can use
(19:21):
it for that. I talk a lot about draft and
hold leagues in that, so that's what I have been
working on. But anyway back to I still got Ricky
Tieman is a number ninety fourth rank guy that seems
too high. I'm going to adjust that. Johnny King comes
in at one sixty six, U Hendrick Beneda one eighty three,
and then Charlie m could do at three sixty seven,
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So it's just a huge drop off after after King.
So King one sixty six, one fiftieth, that's called that.
So that's still a really high end prospect. But then
it just starts to drop off with with Pineda, not
sure where to put him in, and then it's just
a huge drop off. That's just the way it is
with you know, with the Toronto blue Jay system. So
(20:05):
that is a wrap. I will let let everyone go
and if our Patreon members will hold on, we'll do
the back ten, which again not the greatest back ten,
but sometimes it's just the way it is for everybody else.
Tim and I own back. On Sunday, we're gonna be
doing catcher rankings, so I'm sure you want to tune
in for that. Till next time, guys, be well, Patreon members,
(20:27):
hangle on. I'll do the back ten.