All Episodes

May 12, 2023 • 35 mins
It's Eury Perez day for all that are celebrating! Joe and Welsh are also talking Eovaldi, what to do with Mason Miller, Altuve and Glasnow's rehabs, plus PrizePicks, best bets, DFS and more!

Timestamps:
Nathan Eovaldi - 0:03:18
Mason Miller - 0:04:12
Eury Perez - 0:08:07
Vinnie Pasquantino ROS - 0:8:18
Injuries - 0:10:18
Reds Prospects - 0:10:55
Tyler Glasnow 0:15:57
Drop Taj for CES? - 0:16:26
3 Up and 3 Down - 0:25:26
PrizePicks - 0:26:07
Best Bets - 0:27:43
Sorare - 0:30:33
DFS - 0:31:08
HR Call - 0:32:04

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Transcript

Episode Transcript

Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:07):
Welcome in everybody to Fantasy Bros.

Speaker 2 (00:09):
M LB.

Speaker 1 (00:09):
This is Leading Off Live, brought to you by Prize Picks.
Make sure you sign up Dave for Prize Picks and
use that promo code leading off when you do. It's
me Joey Paijo, Pi's a pea. That of course is
the Welsh and it's you, my people, the Peanuts, the
Cracker Jacks. I see people getting caught up on yesterday's show.
People thought, oh, it's a Thursday, the light slate, maybe
i'll skip leading off. Well you shouldn't have because you

(00:31):
might have missed the show of the year. But you
missed it. You go back and watch, especially around that
you just got deleted. Well, I'm just happy to see
you here today after yesterday. That's all. It's good to
see you.

Speaker 2 (00:44):
I'm gonna point back out though, that of all the
people that were okay, it was actually me, it's all you.

Speaker 1 (00:50):
That should be absolutely true. Yeah, you, the Peanuts and
the Cracker Jacks are the are the naughty ones. You
are naughty. Welsh just made a common, easy mistake in
his brain. That's it, And did you the rest of you?
Mine's in the gutter, Mine's in the gutter. But anyway,
let's talk in a little baseball because we've got a
lot to get to here on the program today, as

(01:11):
we always do, and let's start at the top here
because Natan Valdi Welsh, what an incredible run this guy's
been on. He was our number one trade target a
few weeks ago, and he just continues to pilot on
eleven eleven strikeouts, eight and two third scoreles innings. If
you look right now, I was just peeping the MLB

(01:32):
ERA leaders, and I'm sure this is the grouping that
you had going into the season as we look into
mid May. Here, this is the grouping of people who
have sub two eras you ready for this, Sonny Gray
with a one three five, I'm sure we all had that,
Edward Rodriguez one five to seven. Sure we all have
that Alex Cobb, who were going to talk about in
a second, and Bryce Elder at one point seven to four.

(01:55):
Also Seane McLanahan justin Steele, and then if you look
a little bit past there, Nathany Evaldi at two point
seven zero. But if you throw out those first couple
of rocky starts where things just really bad luck, he
would be right there in this mix. And this is
why it's so important Welsh. When you you know, deep
stats sometimes get a little confusing and overwhelming. But when
you see a guy who's ERA is high, and you

(02:16):
see that FIP and that x FIP and that XCRA
are all significantly lower, you buy, buy.

Speaker 2 (02:21):
Buy. It actually really hurts me because we didn't like
go through all the names. But when you had me
give an example for our betting Pros video out there
of ladder betting, I promise you I looked at Nateaniyivaldi
because he can get strikeouts in there, but I just
decided Darvish made a little bit more sense by the way.
It didn't hit on the ladder, but it did hit
the first two legs, which is like the most important

(02:43):
of it. But Ivaldi would have been like a prime
example of that. His K percentage is the highest of
his career by like a decent margin two Only one
time has he ever had it over twenty six percent.
He's a twenty seven percent. He's paired that with the
lowest walk percentage of his career. He's expected and actual
era are in the same general area. He's giving up
the lowest barrels of his career. I mean, there's something

(03:06):
to be said about this team context of what's going
on with the Texas Rangers. He is a total secret
little a sitting back there, and it's been a big benefit.
We did talk about him like at least over the
last month and a month ago, so you know.

Speaker 1 (03:20):
I tried, like wells, I tried like hell to get him.
I could not pry him away after the first like
two leagues. I was trying so hard. I throughout like
the real good trade offers too, I thought Riovaldi. But
both of those people they must watch the show that
can only and they're sitting at the top right now.
The Texas Rangers. They are twenty three and fourteen. They're
head of the Houston Extro's ahead of the Angels, ahead

(03:40):
of Seattle, and of course everyone's ahead of Oakland because
that's just well that's Oakland. But an incredible, incredible run
here to open up the season for Nathan E Valdi,
there's no doubt about that. Alex Cobb has been pretty
amazing too. We could talk about Amy for a second.
Not too shabby as well. Cobb seven and a third
shot of things. His era's at one seventy he's in
that group. Also, let's talk a little bit about Mason

(04:03):
Miller on the fifteen day Injured list. He's a we
did go on the IL. Now we don't know how
long he's gonna be out because we heard that the
MRI was clear. But obviously, as I told you yesterday,
he still got pain. So we're looking for that timetable.
They say, oh, relatively soon, But I'm not listening to
that relatively soon nonsense. I'm thinking, once again, if you've

(04:23):
got a prime pitching prospect and a team that's going nowhere,
there's absolutely no reason to rush this kid. I would
be surprised if we saw him May. I think you're
looking more like mid to late June. What are your
thoughts on Mason Miller's potential return now that he's officially
on the IL.

Speaker 2 (04:36):
I think it's June, but I don't think it's late June.
I think like a month could be the territory of
this whole thing, So I would be looking at mid May.
But again, this is what I said, before you got
an IL. You're great. You're only in a tricky spot
if you're in these no IL league, if you're in
like an NBC league that you have to sit, you're
probably gonna have to sit a month, and he is
worth doing that. He's worth sitting for the month because

(04:59):
I want to say that there's only like a finite
amount of these guys. But what is buried and I
put on the sheet. But let's just talk about it now, Joe,
because it is as big of it's a bigger piece
of news than anything we're talking about. It is URI
pres Day and this is really one of the biggest
things out here. So when you want to talk about
prospect pitching, the amount of fab and amount of the
cost of what URI is going to come out from

(05:20):
this weekend, especially this matchup. This matchup is killer. It's
going to be in the same lines of what happened
with Mason Miller, and you're not gonna want to just
give up. So Mason Miller, I think it's about a month.
I think he'll be okay. I think this will actually
line him up as long as a recovery comes okay
to being able to kind of finish out the year,
because he wasn't gonna be able to put a whole
bunch of innings in. So I think you can hold tight.

(05:42):
But Joe Piezapia. This is jury presday, man, this is
what do we do.

Speaker 1 (05:47):
I mean, look, look, I wanted to give the flowers
to the Valdi's and the Cobs because they those guys
don't get enough attention. Now we talk about Gallonist writer
and you know, Garrit Cole and all the usual suspects
when it comes to pitching. But there's been some guys
getting and we continue to, you know, take our shots
at the White Sox guys, and take our shots at
you know, Jacob de Gram and all these other pitchers

(06:07):
that are constantly either injured or disappointing. So I wanted
to I want to give some love too.

Speaker 2 (06:12):
Well, you're you're a great wing man. I'll take the
bell of the ball and you take the ball. Thank
you for picking up the rents.

Speaker 1 (06:17):
Well, let's see if Euriy Perez puts out today. That's
what we're gonna see today. So six years so far
that he uh is pitched in the minor leagues again
at double A. So he's making the jump from double
A to triple A. Thirty one innings, two point three
two e ra a, forty two strikeouts and thirty one
innings just nine walks at point eighty one whip for
Euri Perez, So it's a very exciting time to be
live for Perez. Is gonna be fascinating to see what

(06:38):
it looks like as we you know, on the weekend,
especially he's facing the reds, which means there's a good
chance that starts gonna look pretty good. He's at home,
a lot of positive things trending in his direction. You're
gonna see, We're he's gonna come up later on the show.
And the betting stuff too, because he's got a line
of four and a half strikeouts of the over today,
so I'm all over that piece. Also before we get
to the injuries Welsh, because that's obviously there's a lot

(06:59):
of them today, a lot of injury notes as we
had to the weekend, rehab assignments, all this stuff. A
fan of the show, friend of the show, Chris Evans,
who listens to the show all the time, loves the show.
Can't it enough of Joey p on the Welsh. Not
that Chris Evans, it's a different Chris Evans, but not
a letter Chris Eppens, mind you. But Chris had a
homework assignment and he had to interview somebody in the media,

(07:22):
and he chose me, this idiot and guess what there
it is good Friday. All here is from Chris. Just
want to let you know I got my grades back
earlier this week and got a hundred on my informative interview.
He's a communications major, I believe, finished with an A
in the class naturally, So congratulations Chris. This is us
giving back to the youth of America. I feel like
but very cool here. So I took some time out

(07:44):
with Chris. We did some discussions about you know, working
in broadcasting and media stuff and book writing and all
these fun things, and it was a really good time.
So congrats to Chris. And if anybody else has a
homework assignment Welsh just free this weekend that they can
help that. Yeah, you gotta get you got a bio
chem for Welsh over his way.

Speaker 2 (08:04):
Hey, you know what, anyone else have got any other homework?
You got any other just let me know. I'll give
you Joe's number. Just here. I give you Joe's phone number.
I'll let you call him.

Speaker 1 (08:13):
I give you a call. It'll be fun. Here's a
fun one from uh let's see from Renegade Envy rest
of season Vine pas Quentino. What do you guys think?
Where would you rate him? This is from a renegade
Envy gak a lot of past Quentino. Look, why is
everybody he's been good?

Speaker 2 (08:28):
Like?

Speaker 1 (08:28):
What are we worried about here? I don't understand.

Speaker 2 (08:30):
I like the rate. Do you remember that that website
Hot or Not? That he's like way back, like you
put a photo up and you know you're masochistic, put
your photo up and then you know people just tear
you apart. I feel like that's what he's asking because
I don't know what the rate would be here, But
I mean i'd probably give Vinnie like a he's like
a five on the Hot or Not scale show.

Speaker 1 (08:51):
I think he's right in the middle for you. I mean, look,
if you look at the numbers, that not bad.

Speaker 2 (08:54):
I mean, oh, we were just talking about hot or not.
He's not very hot. N he's not very hot right now, but.

Speaker 1 (09:00):
He's a Look, he's I would say a mid. He's
a good friend fantasy first, not great, but good. He's
not well, who do we say that was mid yesterday?
I say, I can't remember now, Oh, oh, Alex Bregman.
Maybe he's not quite. I guess he's in that same tier.
I guess after all we started looking at the numbers.
They're closer than you'd think.

Speaker 2 (09:18):
But he has been fine. He has been fine. Seven homers,
his average is ticked back up into the two.

Speaker 1 (09:22):
I'm gonna have those ebbs and flows.

Speaker 2 (09:24):
The problem though, And this was the thing we knew
in the season, and I got stuff wrong on the inverse,
like I wasn't like crazy about Vinnie, and I like
Joseah Bray, you that didn't look good. Those run in
RBI numbers are never gonna look good for Vinnie. There's
just not enough base runners and not enough guys in
scoring positions. So Vinnie's gonna be one of those guys
that's gonna hit thirty homers, good batting average, but he's

(09:44):
not have like eighty run eighty RBI. So yeah, I
don't I don't know what we're talking about here. He's fine,
He's totally fine.

Speaker 1 (09:51):
I think he's frustrating head to head because you're gonna
have some downturns. But in season long, Rodo just said
it and forget it. Here's one for Michael C. Speaking
of hot or not, what would you all do with
Jose Bray when Oscar Andandez. I'm holding to Oscar, but
I'm looking elsewhere for Jose and bra That's yeah, concert,
there you go, there you go. You can't get advice

(10:11):
like that anywhere else. Let's talk about injuries here. Jose L.
Tubay will begin his minor leg minor league rehab assignment
today at Triple A, so that's very exciting. Uh. The
Dodgers activated Jade Martinez, which is probably less exciting. So
if someone dropped him, you could speculate, but I'm not
holding out to my breath at all. Wander Franco, Uh,
yesterday had some neck issues. He says he's gonna play today,

(10:32):
So just keep an eye out in those daily transaction
leagues and daily line up leagues. T J. Friedel let's
get undergo an MRI after being removed from Thursday's game
with side soreness. So Welsh, does this start to open up?
Mister Christian and Carnots.

Speaker 2 (10:47):
And Jack Nicholson, That's what I'm doing right now. Yeah, yes,
And here's what you do right here, I cans together.
Here's what you do, Cincinnati. It's super easy. You take
Nixon Zel and you put him in the outfield. He
can replace TJ. Friedel. Then what you do is you
bring up Christian and Carnacion Strand and you put him

(11:07):
over at third base.

Speaker 1 (11:09):
But then you moved to Steer to first.

Speaker 2 (11:12):
Ye, Steer has been playing first. He's been playing more
majority first, that's.

Speaker 1 (11:15):
Sure, he has been playing more.

Speaker 2 (11:16):
Then what you do is you phantom ghost injury whoever
you think you're playing a shortstop and you bring up
Ellie Da La Cruz.

Speaker 1 (11:23):
And then what you do gone full tinfoil helmet on
me here.

Speaker 2 (11:27):
And then what you do is you get Nancy Kerrigan
to come in here and why why?

Speaker 1 (11:32):
And then you Nancy Carrigan doesn't do it. Tarya Harding
does what you welshed it again?

Speaker 2 (11:37):
You definitely whichever one. Sorry I didn't get my.

Speaker 1 (11:41):
There's an alternate universe where Nancy Kerrigan took a pipe
to Tanya Harding.

Speaker 2 (11:45):
What good episode if?

Speaker 1 (11:47):
That would be a great episode of what if? What if?
Nancy Kerrigan was like, I don't like that story of
the trailer park girl who's gonna win the hearts and
minds of America. I'm gonna take her out.

Speaker 2 (11:57):
You know what I like too, is Tanya harding, Like
after all of that and all that negative famous stuff,
she went like full trailer park, after she did every
trailer park thing you.

Speaker 1 (12:06):
Can do, celebrity boxing.

Speaker 2 (12:08):
Remember Beyond, Yeah and Beyond.

Speaker 1 (12:11):
That's a great movie. Did you see the movie? By
the way, what Tanya?

Speaker 2 (12:16):
I love? What's what's her name that?

Speaker 1 (12:19):
I'll never forget? What's her name?

Speaker 2 (12:20):
I'll never forget? You can't you know, Harley Quinn?

Speaker 1 (12:24):
I know I want to see if you can name her.

Speaker 2 (12:26):
I can't know. You can't you you don't know the
name either. Jo's of course I know the name.

Speaker 1 (12:31):
I want to see if you can.

Speaker 2 (12:32):
I don't know. I can't take of her name right now?

Speaker 1 (12:34):
Come on, Well, she's a great nameou is actress?

Speaker 2 (12:36):
No, I know it's it's not there. It's I'm not
gonna try. Thank you, Marco, Robbie, thank you.

Speaker 1 (12:42):
What happened to help him out?

Speaker 2 (12:43):
Yes today, I'm not saying Jack, I'm not saying anything.

Speaker 1 (12:47):
Yes, longo. Robbie is in its, Sebastian stan is in it.
It's it's tremendous, really really well done, well written directed
movie too. You haven't seen it? Check it out there
you go, there's a movie on the weekend it here's
some other stuff. So after all that, I love your
conspiracy theory about the Reds to you. Look, now's the time,
even re draft leagues, I'd be adding Ellie Della Cruz
now just why why not like Adam for a buck?

(13:08):
Stick them on the bench. What hap?

Speaker 2 (13:10):
Ellie's on another level right now, and ultimately Ces is
going to play first for this team. This is what
he did in spring when I saw him. Ellie's been
playing third base in Triple A. He'll be the third
baseman and Matt McClain will be the shorts up. That
will be the setup. But Ces could play third right now.
I guess it also leaves an opportunity if the team
really wanted to say screw it and they wanted Ellie

(13:31):
to be that third baseman, they could just bring up
Ellie and he could beat Cees either way. The TJ.
Friedles stuff opens up an opportunity for them to finally
let loose one of Yeah, I mean, that might be
the hottest Triple A team in baseball right now, with
the amount of prospects that are ready to become to
the majors.

Speaker 1 (13:47):
Yeah, there you go. All right, let's continue on here
some fantastic things in the chat by the way. By
the way, Margot Robbie hell of an actress too. I
just want to say, it's.

Speaker 2 (13:56):
Just I mean, that's the whole, that's part of the whole.

Speaker 1 (13:58):
Back could a great actress too, But she is. She
was really. I mean, Wolf of Wall Sheet's a crazy movie.
She was very good in that. I'm trying to think
of some other things I've seen her, but I Tania
is tremendous, Like you know, she's better than just the
Harley Quinn stuff that she's done.

Speaker 2 (14:09):
Rumored to be uh up for Sue Storm.

Speaker 1 (14:12):
Oh really is that that? You want? That fantastic four four? Yes?

Speaker 2 (14:16):
All about that?

Speaker 1 (14:17):
Here you go, Carlos Rodon, he could use a little
fantastic for action there. Maybe we can know whatever whatever
the stretchy guy had, Maybe we can get that for
Carlos Rodon because Richard's thank you the stretchy guy. You
like that he threw from flat ground today or is
going to? I should say, so, we'll see how that goes.

Speaker 2 (14:36):
Another type say what other type of ground? But I
guess I could be on the mound, like when I
hear that it's such a stupid thing like he threw
from flat ground, So it's like he just could like throw,
he could tell us to me through for the mound
and just say he threw otherwise, I don't know.

Speaker 1 (14:48):
That's like a little It's really concerning. And this investment
that the Yankees maide in Rodin is even more concerning
at this point. And I really thought this was smart
by them. I was like, hey, maybe this guy's turned
a corner. Last year was terrific for Sam, for Cisco.
Like you knew it was never gonna be perfect. There's
gonna be some miss time here and there. But the
fact that we're in, you know, the twelfth of May
and he hasn't thrown a pitch yet, that's disturbing. Luis

(15:08):
Severino less disturbing. We'll make another rehab start on Tuesday.
So if he makes another rehab start Tuesday and the
ups evenings through about five, which is the expectation, I
think the last one he had three and change, I
would imagine maybe by the weekend you get him back,
if not the following week. So Seva Reno's getting close again.
If someone dropped him, or if you're looking for pitching,
maybe go out there acquire him get a little ahead
of the game. Liam Hendricks was behind the game yesterday.

(15:28):
So good in his first outing, not so good yesterday,
allowed four runs, only recorded two outs yesterday in the rehab.
But again, oftentimes we see these guys in spring trading.
They look good for a couple outings, then they have
a blow uper outing or two, and then they're back
on track. It's just part of getting ready. Quote unquote,
Corey Seeger's getting ready. He had a two run double
yesterday in his minor league rehab assignment at Double A.

(15:48):
Frisco Raised manager Kevin Cash said that Tyler Glass now
will make a minor league rehab start also on Tuesday.

Speaker 2 (15:56):
He's still on schedule, and then he's gonna make one more.
So just pointing out to everybody, I actually think he
I thought I saw he was gonna pitch today and
then pitch next week. But either way, he's gonna have
two more rehab assignments, and as long as we don't
have another incident like we just had, then he's gonna
come back up to the majors.

Speaker 1 (16:15):
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experience more. And now back to the action. Here's a
really good question from Dylan Love. Would you drop Toash
Bradley to stash cees enough pitching? I think I would.

Speaker 2 (17:59):
Yeah, I will. I don't know if I talked about
this and if I talked about it here at all,
but like I finally did some of that research, did
it with Eno and DVR on.

Speaker 1 (18:08):
Todds about it yesterday?

Speaker 2 (18:10):
Yeah, I was speculating on some stuff and sure enough,
So what I ended up doing is I went and
saw his last start in the majors and I compared
it to both of his minor league starts, and they
are messing with Todd Bradley. They've clearly have him doing
other stuff. Here's what's happening. Fastball percentage is overtaking the cutter.
He threw his cutter more than anything in the majors.

(18:31):
That's dropped from around forty six percent down to around
thirty percent in the majors. They've also essentially told him
to scrap his curveball, and ENO backed this all up
by stuff plus numbers saying that the fastball graded higher
than the cutter, which is why he's switching there, and
the curve was the lowest graded on stuff plus. It's
a very analytically driven team. So the whole point of

(18:52):
this is to say, like he's been having struggles in
the miners and everyone's wondering why. It's because they have
him kind of changing up his ript and I think
that is causing a lot of this. And you know,
sometimes it doesn't matter the results. They want this change. Plus,
they haven't even put him on the five day rotation
yet he's still in a six day rotation.

Speaker 1 (19:09):
Here's the wacky thing about that too, which I don't understand.
If I know the cutter. They'll say that sometimes that
puts more stress on the arm, that pitch as well.
That's one of those things. So I can understand if
they wanted him to back off of it while they were,
you know, trying to catch him up to that five
man rotation. This is this is where we started to
speculate on it, I think yesterday, the day before. And
if you know, if that's the case, and you know

(19:30):
they're going to bring him back and then let him
use the cutter more, that would make sense. But if
he's getting crappy results, changing the repertoire, why would you
want to do that to it? Why would you want
to do that? Why would you want to do that
to a kid who is just starting to show you
that he's ready for the big leagues. Comes up, he
looks great in triple A, comes up to the big leagues,
smoking everybody, and then you're changing things up and next
thing you know, now the results are bad. I don't know.

Speaker 2 (19:50):
I mean it's computer nerd stuff. It's the analytics said
they need him to be like nerds, and they want
this pitch over here to kind of be a lot like.

Speaker 1 (19:58):
He was throwing his curve ball cutter.

Speaker 2 (20:01):
His curve all was like thirteen percent of the time
in that last major league start. I think he's throwing
one or two of them in the miners in both starts.

Speaker 1 (20:07):
Well, I believe here. I've I've written down in my
diary about the cutter.

Speaker 2 (20:12):
Oh everybody, it's the Ray's analytical team. Please talk.

Speaker 1 (20:16):
Yeah right, I once threw a baseball in nineteen ninety seven.
It was very exhilarating, but I've decided it was very dangerous.
So instead I'm just going to analyze the rest of
them and figure it out. But he says here that
the cutter might be a pitching to back off. He
through at sixty four point two percent of the time,
and perhaps and maybe maybe a fifty seven the time

(20:37):
will be a little bit better situation. I think perhaps,
So we'll continue to look into that and continue to
study the analytics of all that. I'm like, I'm like
carat top. I've just got props everywhere on this desk
at all time.

Speaker 2 (20:49):
To you do. I'm always amazing. Where's the crown? Do
you have the crown?

Speaker 1 (20:53):
Yeah? I've got the crown here because we don't have
that sponsor anymore. So I never wear the crown, but
I the king.

Speaker 2 (21:00):
Of keeping it real now within hands reach.

Speaker 1 (21:02):
Yeah, you got to have a couple of things here
around just because you never know, you never know what's
gonna happen. Hopefully we do know what happens with Tyder
Glastow when things get better. Max Scherzer is not going
to start today against the Nationals. Get out of town. Well,
I mean, I'm shocked. I can't believe this. I mean,
this is just so shocking. This is going in a
bad direction fast for the New York Mets. I'm telling

(21:24):
you right now. So Tyler McGill starting today instead, they
had to start Peterson and those guys have not been good.
It's been very unfortunate. I know Carrasco's working his way back,
but that's not the answer. The Mets are kind of
hanging on by a thread here. And I told you
before the show something that I was looking on betting
pros this morning, which is after the Max Freed entry.
I was putting together the sports Grid TV stuff because

(21:45):
I do the Sunday Baseball show there for two hours
on Sunday mornings, and I was looking at some of
the lines and look at some of the stuff, and
it occurred to me, I was like, Wow, Max Free's
gonna miss two months. So what does that mean here?
When the Mets are terrible, there's no value on the
Braves or like minus four hundred to win the division.
I know the Phillies just lost a closer, but still
they've got some depth there, these gut guys that can
fill that role. The Phillies are ten to one to

(22:07):
win that division. They're starting to look like a really
interesting play potentially. What do you think of the Phillies
maybe coming on here, especially with Bryce Harper back so early?

Speaker 2 (22:15):
How far how far back are they? What does the
division record look like right now?

Speaker 1 (22:18):
Because I will to check on that right now, we're
super sneaky play well, right now, the Phillies are an
eighteen win team. They are seven games back, but they're
only they're they're they're tied with the Mets. Basically they're
in like a half game tie because that's one more game.
But again, I can't I can't knock the Phillies for
what their record is because they played six weeks without

(22:40):
Bryce Harper. So now that Harper's back already, this kind
of changes the calculus for me. The Phillies. Now our
Noah's got a big start today, He's got a kicking.

Speaker 2 (22:48):
And that is what I was just waiting to say, Joe.
It's like the air Aaron Nola and his curveball not
being what it was and him not being himself. That's key.
They took Matt Strom off put him in the bullpen,
which makes a bullpen better. War is going to be
coming back soon. What does he look like? So I
think there's a couple of key components they need to
get going. But they got that offense rolling. I mean,

(23:08):
Bryce and Stott's been horrible as of recent. He was
one of those guys that was a pick up. But
offense is going. If Aaron Nola can get right, maybe
this is another one of those teams us to get
out there, be a little bit aggressive, get another guy
in the rotation. They're totally going to take this and
take that comment off the screen.

Speaker 1 (23:23):
By the way, Oh, I didn't even realized it was
still there. It's not very nice when I was wearing
my glasses. That's why that's what happened there anyway, And uh, look, analytics,
by the way, for the p doesn't Crackerjack. Analytics have
their place. But at a certain point, these are people
and they're athletes, and we start to shake with their
confidence of what they do. And here's the thing, So

(23:45):
Todge Brady would be love Todge Bradley. Everything about Todge
Bradley's great. He's our number one pitching prospect. Everything's been fantastic,
and then we bring him up. But he's great in
the major leagues, So why are we tinkering with it?
That's the that's the problem I have. It's like, if
you can find somebody that's struggling, that's where the analytics
come in to help them do better. But when somebody's
already great or doing really well, what are we trying

(24:05):
to do except maybe change this guy's confidence. And now
with guys in his head, there's still people. So the
analytics do matter with one hundred percent, and the way
you play, the analytics absolutely do make an impact. But
at the end of the day, sometimes, especially with young players,
it's a very dangerous game to play because when you
knock the confidence down, the next thing you know, you've
got a top prospect who's trying to do all these
different things. Now, meanwhile, he got to be a top

(24:27):
prospect because of the way he did things. And I'm
not saying you can't improve, of course, you can same
thing happens in the NFL. There's certain things. You know,
when the quarterback comes in the NFL, you know, you
want to try to get rid of the ball quicker.
You want to work on the footwork, you want to
look at understand the reads, defenses, the thing you want
to try and analytically. There's things physically that you can
do better. But Cheese man like, sometimes I think we

(24:48):
we'd overdo it, That's all I'm saying. Sometimes I think I.

Speaker 2 (24:50):
Think it's a blend. I think there's a blend. I
think it's tough when they want guys to throw a
different type of pitch or or full on scrap to
add that's not necessarily the case here. I think it is.
It is tough with what they're doing, but I think
they saw the road ahead and they saw the pitch
mix needed to be adjusted. I mean, Bryce Miller just

(25:11):
talked about this, like his numbers. Why he struggled in
double A was because the team told him just throw strikes,
just throw strikes and fastballs right now, and it wasn't
allowing him to really kind of generate both of what
that sweeper and actually what he labels as a curveball
and and he was getting beat up and then but
then the opposite of that is look at the success

(25:32):
he's had at the Majors for what they did in
double A of just having him really struggle. So it's
a it's a fine line between all of it. Hopefully
the Rays have a great track record. Hopefully it's what
works out. But coming back to it, Taj doesn't look
like he's coming up in the next two or three.

Speaker 1 (25:46):
Weeks, so he doesn't it's probably worthwhile getting a guy
like THEE was the longest answer ever to Trent Fleming.
By the way, he wants us Doe to an entire
show as the Ray's analytics team and Jack Nicholson. So
there you go, so that maybe next week we could
do that. Tyler Molly won't be doing much of anything
for this year and the rest of next year, probably
most of it. Tyler Molly will have Tommy John surgery

(26:06):
this week, so that's very sad. Uh. Here's a Joe's
Tough Guys. We got to get a graphic for Joe's
Tough Guys. I don't know what that is, but I
will accept any really good photoshop of what will be
appropriate for Joe's tough guys.

Speaker 2 (26:17):
Maybe how about the how about the girl scout addressed as.

Speaker 1 (26:22):
Well? Maybe it's like a picture of me is a
boxer getting the crapp be eat at of me or
something like that, or you know, it's like Rocky or
something something like.

Speaker 2 (26:29):
You know, I like that image of Mike Tyson's punch
out with the That's what I was thinking, and then
the little guy at the bottom that would be you. Yeah,
and then head on the that's me.

Speaker 1 (26:39):
So somebody sends that to me, we'll make it a
graphic for next week's show. Ben Lively secured his first
major league win since twenty seventeen. That's a long time ago, Welsh.
Three scoreless things are relief, So good for Ben Lively.
Congratulations you got a w three up and three down.
Casey Schmidt, who apparently looks more like Mike Schmidt, went
four for four with two homer and three RBI. He's

(27:00):
been on fire. Drew Rasmussen was good against the Yankees.
Seven innings for him, no runs, struck out seven. Josh
Low in that same game, five robies with a dinger,
three down, Aaron Judge over four to three. Ks Brett
Honeywell two thirds of an inning, three earned runs, and
CODEI Senga five innings pitched, five earned runs, eight hits.
Welsh did have some.

Speaker 2 (27:22):
I hit my prop yesterday.

Speaker 1 (27:23):
I mean lance Lynn has like twenty two strikeouts in
his last three games. We want to talk about how
good lance Lynn is.

Speaker 2 (27:28):
I mean, yeah, saying got strikeouts, that's all it mattered.

Speaker 1 (27:31):
Let's pick some prizes. Go to prize picks dot com
or download the app and use that promo code leading off.
When you do, you get one hundred percent to posit
a match up to one hundred dollars. Welsh, what do
you want to do with the prize picking today?

Speaker 2 (27:43):
Oh right, well, we don't have a prize pick that's
going to push up against all the chaos of games
starting or anything like that. Even though, hilariously yesterday I
was like, let's replay Spencer Steer with Fernando Tatis Junior's
total base or score whatever he hits a homer, got
my homer call there, but didn't matter because Mike Clevenger
crapped all over the rest of it. So today we
will go, man be a little bit easier. I'm gonna

(28:03):
go on the opposite Aaron Judge can turn that back
around against a total who for the Rais today Fantasy
score eight and a half, Jordon Alvarez Fantasy score eight
and a half. And I'm gonna do the hater thing.
James Paxton is returning his strikeout numbers at five. I
will take the under. I'm not feeling James Packton, similar
to how I wasn't feeling Kyle right. How far will

(28:24):
the pitches go, how successful? How many walks is he
gonna have? He us a strikeout pitcher, so it's possible
he could blow pass this, but first start back, I'm
gonna go with the under on strikeouts for James Paxton's people.

Speaker 1 (28:36):
Can people on the live when they watch it back,
can they see all the comments.

Speaker 2 (28:40):
Of people like yes, I have that selected? Yeah?

Speaker 1 (28:44):
Oh good, because even today some really good comments, really
funny stuff in there. For me, it's Drew Smiley four
and a half over on the pitcher strikeouts going against
the Twinkies, Martin Perez against the oaklan A's nobody strikes
out more than them. I know Martin Perez is exactly
show heyl Tony that's okay. Ye four and a half
is a tiny number you just gotta get to five, Okay,
Mike Trout seven and a half hitter Fantasy score against Cleveland,

(29:04):
and they're young pitching. I'm gonna go take that little
number as well. When it comes to betting today, here's
my parlay of the day, Eury Perez four and a half.
I would bet that separately anyway. I'd bet all three
of these separately anyway, just in case. Then you then
you push, you make your money back. So if you
put a unit on each of these things individually, and
then a unit on them as a trio, you're gonna
get five to one odds on it. So Ury Perez

(29:25):
four and a half over, Drew Smiley four and a
half k's over, Martin Perez four and a half k's over.
Bet them individually, right, But if you go ahead and
even throw one unit on them as a parlay, you're
getting five to one. So there you go. So you're
still gonna if you get two out of three, it's
a push for a day and you're good. Mike Trout
over on the half RBIs you're getting plus one seventy
on that number. That's a huge number. Eury Perez. We

(29:47):
talked about again the four and a half. You're getting
minus one oh nine Corbyn burn six and a half strikeouts.
I struggled with this one, but I'm gonna lean the other.

Speaker 2 (29:55):
You pick him every single start, you know.

Speaker 1 (29:58):
I'm waiting for it to turn around. And then Drew
Smiley too. The other one too is we have an
eight and a half today which is Benzer Strider against Toronto,
and I desperately want to go the under, but I'm
just leaving it alone. Just leaving it alone, Welsh, What
are you looking for today when it comes to the
betting market.

Speaker 2 (30:13):
Yeah, I wouldn't touch that either though. By the way,
in your parlay, I like the Drew Smiley and I
like Eury Perez. Those are two I don't love Martin Perez.
Euri Priz is one of mine. It's minus one thirty
one thing when talking about him earlier over his last
two starts. This is obviously in the minors, but twenty
strikeouts in his last two starts. So Euri pres is
a big strikeout pitcher. He's got a great relationship with

(30:35):
Sandy al Contra, who broke the news to him big
change up, fastball, slider, red strikeout, a whole bunch This
is a pretty easy number. It's juic stuff at like
one thirty. But I'm playing it. I'm going to play
it as a solo and would love to pair it,
like you said, with stuff. My other two bets playing
some of my first five team total runs. So this
is teams to score this mini runs through the first
five innings. My two favorites today Houston through the first

(30:59):
five score two and a half. This is up against
Michael Kopek all but two starts this year. He has
given up far more than three runs in the first
five and I'm gonna go with Saint Louis.

Speaker 1 (31:10):
Is that right?

Speaker 2 (31:11):
Saint Louis first five team total run two and a half.
I have to go back through that, but those are
my I'm trying to remember why you're right.

Speaker 1 (31:19):
So here's our parlay.

Speaker 2 (31:20):
Oh, James Paxson, That's why that's all. Yeah, Yes, I'm
going up against James Paxson team total two and a half.
That was my logic.

Speaker 1 (31:26):
Thank you in that game. Today's party of the Day
from the collective leading off team. I took Drew Smiley
in the four and a half case over minus one eighteen.
Mike Mayer Mariners money line minus one twenty. Kelly Kirby,
our friend the Wonky Penguin took the Braves minus one
and a half at plus one oh five and the
Welsh Braves on the money line minus one sixty first

(31:47):
five again the first five. But so he put all
those things together, you get plus oney twenty eight, so
ten to one on that. If you play those four
things together. Another thing you should play, which is really
fun and super awesome, is so rare. Head over right
now to Fantasy pros dot com slash collect. Sign up
for free. I did this week. It's super fun. It's
really cool. You get to make your lineup, you get

(32:08):
to bid on your players, and again it's a combination
of it's like baseball cards the digital versions and you're
playing fantasy. You can enter it in contests and win
other packs on other players. It's super cool. I know
razors in there playing too. So if you haven't already,
check it out this weekend, if you got some time.
Fantasy pros dot com slash Collect MLB so rare. The
next era is yours, not mine, not Welsh's, it's yours.

(32:32):
Let's continue on with the DFS today. Remember yesterday when
I told you best Nate Valdi lineup wins, well, hopefully
you won. Garrett Cole eleven point three, K Spencer Strider
eleven five. Love the Strider as much today as I
do because of the price on the road. There's a
lot of issues there. Sunny Grade at ten point eight

(32:52):
I do like, and Drew Smiley at nine point eight two.
Typically I stay away from the games where it's two
pitchers going against each other because the four outcomes. But
I think way you're looking under in that game stacks
today Saint Louis as Welsh was touching on against Pax
in Houston Philly, Texas. Who has been great value, mister
Mid himself, Alex Bregman at two point eight. Miguel Vargus
has really picked things up in the last month two

(33:14):
point eight and No One Aaron Otto is just two
point eight today, Welsh, if you could believe it, then
it comes of course to the time we all love
the home run board. Obviously we are getting to a
point here where.

Speaker 2 (33:27):
You're getting close close, So I'm at nine for yesterday.

Speaker 1 (33:30):
Primetime is still at the top. Obviously, Razor starting to
get closer and closer there, but still still very close here.
We got a lot of people at thirteen. VHb Zerdo
Blue Harvester all at the thirteen as well, got a
bunch of people at twelve. Are you in double digits yet?
Welsh's out?

Speaker 2 (33:46):
Well, I'm at nine, so I got my tatis he
led off Homer. That was my ninth Homer call. So
I'm looking for a big weekend to get into the
double Digi's because I want to get on that I
don't think I've ever been on that board since doing
doing this since last year, but I've never been on
that board at any time, so I'm ready to do
it this time. So very soon. Aaron Judge, We're gonna

(34:08):
go with Aaron Judge. I was tempted on a few
other players, but Aaron Judge is what I'm settling on
because there's also a weekend call. So going with Aaron
Judge through the weekend he has not quite been right.
Kind of wanted to go with Paul Welchmith today going
against Packson, but I'm gonna take a weekend Judge run
for myself and hopefully can pick up. And I'm trying
to get to eleven. Eleven is like a magic number
because I think I can rock it next week. Joe

(34:29):
are you gonna get pat? What are you at?

Speaker 1 (34:30):
Four?

Speaker 2 (34:31):
Five?

Speaker 1 (34:32):
Five? I think I'm at five Jordan Alvarez for the weekend,
there we go. That's where we're going here. By the way,
looks like cousin Donnie's go to a baseball game. He
needs a merch the game. We gotta get him a
hat or something. It'll get to him before the game.
But but look at that, cousin Donnie going to a
baseball game.

Speaker 2 (34:47):
So that's gonna be funny.

Speaker 1 (34:48):
We'll see how he lasts there. It's been a really
fun weekend of shows. And also, Happy Mother's Day out
there to everybody, especially the bombs who watched the show,
because we know we have a lot of female listeners
and watchers the pro so happy Mother's Day to all
of you. Do something nice for your mom, or do
something nice for the other ladies in the life that
you know our moms as well, So enjoy the mother's day,

(35:09):
get some flowers, get some fresh air, and enjoy the
baseball as well. That'll do it for us, But the
story of the game goes on for the Welsh. I'm
Joey Pee. We'll see you next time. Kids enjoy the weekend.
Bye Bye,
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