May 22, 2023 • 29 mins
Severino is back, Christopher Morel is HOT, Bobby Miller and Gavin Stone pitching this week plus PrizePicks, best bets, DFS and more from Joe and Welsh.
Fear of Spiders - 0:01:05
Verlander and Scherzer back - 0:02:45
Luis Severino - 0:03:35
Contract year guys - 0:04:56
Christopher Morel - 0:07:13
Chris Sale/James Paxton - 0:09:31
Mitch Keller - 0:10:43
Rookie Lookies - 0:12:42
Injuries - 0:15:43
3 Up and 3 Down - 0:17:27
PrizePicks - 0:21:54
Best Bets - 0:23:19
Sorare - 0:25:03
DFS - 0:25:37
HR Calls - 0:26:22
FantasyPros Leading Off each and every weekday, presented by PrizePicks The easiest and fastest way to play Daily Fantasy Sports. Pick over or under on player props to win up to 25X your money! Use the Promo code LEADINGOFF when you sign up and they'll match your first deposit up to $100
Fear of Spiders - 0:01:05
Verlander and Scherzer back - 0:02:45
Luis Severino - 0:03:35
Contract year guys - 0:04:56
Christopher Morel - 0:07:13
Chris Sale/James Paxton - 0:09:31
Mitch Keller - 0:10:43
Rookie Lookies - 0:12:42
Injuries - 0:15:43
3 Up and 3 Down - 0:17:27
PrizePicks - 0:21:54
Best Bets - 0:23:19
Sorare - 0:25:03
DFS - 0:25:37
HR Calls - 0:26:22
FantasyPros Leading Off each and every weekday, presented by PrizePicks The easiest and fastest way to play Daily Fantasy Sports. Pick over or under on player props to win up to 25X your money! Use the Promo code LEADINGOFF when you sign up and they'll match your first deposit up to $100
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:06):
Welcome in everybody to Fantasy Boroughs MLB. This is Leading
Off Live, brought you by Prize Picks. Sign up for
Prize Picks today and use the promo codes leading Off
when you do to get one hundred percent deposit match
up to one hundred dollars. It's me Joey p That
of course is the Welsh and it's you, the Peanuts,
the Cracker Jacks, the folks in the chat. What a
fun weekend we had. The weather was much better here
(00:28):
in New Jersey. That was good. Got to get all
of our football games in this weekend. Had a glorious
flag football game on Sunday. So I'm still on a
high from that one. And Welsh certainly a lot of
baseball to get to as well. So how was your weekend, buddy?
That was everything good?
Speaker 2 (00:46):
Sure, let's do that, but let me let me ask
you what you would do in this situation.
Speaker 1 (00:51):
I don't have That is a no. I'm just gonna
take that will just.
Speaker 2 (00:54):
All the days, let's just put it in there. So
I went to my kid they had a birthday party
and I was there. Make this quick, and I'm sitting
in one of those like low beach chair type of things,
just sitting back and the host of the house is
talking to my wife and goes, oh, wow, that's a
massive spider, and and she looks down at me. Something
(01:15):
you need to know about me. I'm massively arachnophobic. The
one thing I am terrified of is spiders. And I
had a moment where I had to think to myself,
do I go into my you know, but that's what
I do. I go into the how I feel where
(01:37):
I want to jump up scream going like that like
that would be the scream. Or do I slowly get up,
you know, very manly like, oh either spider there. And
I decided to do the more manly thing. And it
was the biggest, nastiest It's like a wolf spider and uh,
(01:58):
it ruined my weekend. I still I'm dreaming about it.
I'm dreaming about it right now.
Speaker 1 (02:03):
Wow. That's a good story there. Yeah, Arizona, you got
some weird got the scorpions out there, You got a
lot of things.
Speaker 2 (02:08):
You know what. Scorpions don't affect me. I've stepped on
a scorpion. We've I've seen hundreds. We had a house.
I remember we bought a house. First night we stayed there.
We found twenty scorpions around. Scorpions don't affect me, but man,
despite it was a go look up a wolf spider.
It was at my feet and she's casually like, hey,
look there's a little spider, and I'm like, well look
at me. Gonna go drown myself in the pool. Sorry, guys,
(02:30):
bye bye.
Speaker 1 (02:31):
There you go. All right, Well, let's talk some baseball.
On that note, Justin Verlander, you know, he went eight innings,
not eight legs, so he was very good. Finally for
the New York Mets, they got good outings on the
same day from Surezer and from Justin Verlander, who knows
what to say. So it looks like, you know that
that that one big night, that comeback win really kind
(02:52):
of spurned the steam on. We'll see if it continues
to go. Obviously the Guardians having some issues of their own.
Good sels air mirrors back. He at a home run
yesterd so that's positive. He's had a quiet beginning to
the season. Still good, which is not quite Jose Ramirez,
Oh my god, he's so great. He's MVP kind of season.
It's it'll be interesting to see if he's available on
some trade potential talks here. Ashoy Otani was delivered another
(03:15):
great performance. No decision though for him against the Twins
on Sunday. One run, two hits, six innings for him.
We got a return for a Yankee, so Damingo hermon
out with the suspension. Louis Severino scattered four hits, struck
out five guys, one earned run his season debut on Sunday.
So Severino rest of season, Welsh, This is a picture
who's pitching for a contract. This is a picture of
(03:36):
the Yankees desperately need to perform. Well, what's your rest
of season outlook for Severino? Now that he's back. He
looks sharp in this first outing. Are you somebody that's
back in let's go Louis Severino or do you have
any concerns because we have seen some inconsistencies from him
over the last few years, although last season a strong finish,
no doubt. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (03:54):
I think a lot of the inconsistency is just about also,
like health and being out there. And now that he's back,
I do think they're going to baby him. I think
he's going to be babied over the next couple starts.
I don't expect to see any seven inning outings or
anything like that. But you know, as far as in
line with who he is, K percentage was there in
that first start, he looked good. They really babied the
entire rehab process. So actually, I think this is a
(04:17):
really solid time. I don't think the price has caught
up to Louis Severino, you know what I mean, Like,
I don't think Louis Severino can be over this season
is collectively there on who he is coming off of
this injury. So to your point, this might be one
of those guys you said before we were talking about trades.
This might be a guy that you can go acquire
and it's like ninety cents on the dollar type of
(04:39):
thing where you know you're paying for Louis Severino. But
that's not really the guy he's going to be. Because
he can be one of the front line aces for
this team, well.
Speaker 1 (04:46):
He absolutely can be, and I think with a contract
on the line for him this year, I would expect that.
I'm expecting Louis Severino to be.
Speaker 2 (04:52):
A guy that are you a big contract your guy?
Speaker 1 (04:54):
Well? Yeah, because because I used to have his argument
with Sealy where you know, we both approach this argument
in a different way, whereas I took the data and
over I think it was like over a ten year
period of basically you know, all star level, like well
above replacement level players, and when you look at most
(05:15):
of the time they perform at their level or above
almost thirty percent of the time, more a higher rather
than their normal level of productivity. The problem is a
lot of these the data when you get to the
contract year guys. So many players are on one year
deals who aren't very good, who are under replacement players.
They taint the data. So you look, I said, oh,
players don't play better in contract years. No, bad players
(05:38):
don't play good in contract years, and that's why they're
on a contract year every year. There's a difference. You
can't take it from that data. You have to take
it from the top third of the league and look
at when they are free agents, and typically more often
than not, they play. I think it's about I think
when I did the research for Black Book.
Speaker 2 (05:53):
I remember you going through this. I remember you had
like a study you had done with this.
Speaker 1 (05:56):
I did. I did because I was I knew I
was right. I needed to find the data that backed
me up. And the then the X plug in the data,
so to speak, was the fact that if you look
too much about every free agent, well, yeah, every free
agent is not good because most of the league is
a free agent over a year and it's baseball, and
(06:17):
that you can look at the NFL the same kind
of concept. But baseball, especially the players that are above
replacement value typically play at their level or above again
above it was more almost twenty eight or I think
twenty nine percent of the time above of twenty eight
percent above their normal.
Speaker 2 (06:33):
So you're saying millions of dollars is going to incent
players to play better.
Speaker 1 (06:39):
That's crazy, I know, even great crazy time. It's crazy.
Speaker 2 (06:43):
And you know what's even grazier. There might be a
correlation to the more dollars that they get that they
play even better. Like the higher dollar guys even play better.
Isn't that great? And then the Wan Soto didn't get
the memo, but everybody else.
Speaker 1 (06:55):
Well, I mean he's still got time to get it.
I just think that might be a batters I think
with him in that ballpark, something about I don't know,
maybe I don't know what it is, maybe just not
a West Coast guy, I don't know. I mean, it's Heaven.
It's a big place. I'd love to go to San
Diego and just stay there forever. Christopher Morrell, can he
stay forever? Another home run for him? He has eight
runs in eleven games. It's getting called up. He's a
(07:17):
fersatile player. But the slash right now three seventy three,
ninety six, nine to fifty seven with fifteen runs, fourteen
ribis and a steal for good measure, what do you
make of this guy? I mean, this has just been
an incredible talk about getting called up and being a
waiver wire return. Christopher Morell has been unbelievable.
Speaker 2 (07:35):
Well, I mean, they love Morel was one of the
best minor league players after they had sent him down,
so that wasn't even a question. Morell has got big
bat speed that puts up big, big home run numbers,
and he put up I think he was, like God,
I'm trying to remember it, but he had like eight
homers in his first eleven games, and he's one of
the very few players who have ever done that. A
(07:56):
sixty percent hard hit percentage. Right now, he's already put
up almost a fourteen EV max EV. His average is
around ninety three and a half. His problem is, and
we've got I think we've talked about this. It's a
big swing and miss is thirty seven percent strikeout rate
right thirty seven and a half percent strikeout rate right now,
So how is he going to live off of it?
He doesn't have any hits off of off speed pitches.
(08:17):
He's dominating fastballs right now, so he's gonna start to
get pitched differently. But that huge bat speed is keeping
him in the game. It's kind of a hot old
school hobbier bias esque, if you will, you know what
I'm saying, Like there's a lot I did not like
that equivalent, No, no, but like the it's the good
hobbyer buys because thirty seven percent striker, Like we're lotting
(08:38):
a player. We're like, oh my god, he's got thirty
seven percent strikeout rate. That's really bad. But you know,
he's been such an offensive force. You're just gonna have
to watch and see how he adjusts to win the league.
Adjust But like, it doesn't matter. He's he's awesome. He's
a huge pickup. You hold on and you hope that
it holds the entire season.
Speaker 1 (08:56):
Here's a question from Dan g one of the Peanuts
and Cracker Jacks of the chat. A league mate offered
Jordan Walker for morell in a keeper league. Who would
rather have a keeper situation?
Speaker 2 (09:05):
Jordan Walker, I would very much rather have it. So
he gets Jordan Wahite. That's a great ascept. That's like,
that's like the I want I want to play in
that league, and it's a sexy I of Dynasty as
so fun. Someone's like, ooh, look at this young guy
who's hitting a well. I'll give you the top prospect
in baseball for him because he's started for eleven games
in the miners and you're like, yes, give me, give me.
Speaker 1 (09:25):
Those are the best. Those are absolutely the best. Chris Sale,
he's starting to pitch pretty well. Uh this is another
good performance for Chris Sale. He's starting to look like himself.
Eight strikeout, six oh. Third. James Paxson was good again
over the weekend. Uh. I said this on Sunday on
the television show. I said, if Sale can be Sale
and Paxton continues to pitch the way he is looked
(09:46):
so far in these first two outings, the Red Sox
can start to get back into this race because it's
the balance schedule again, so they don't have to beat
up on each other as much in that division where
I think most of the good teams in the America
League are in the East. I think we can all
agree on it.
Speaker 2 (10:00):
About to say, you don't want to that's it.
Speaker 1 (10:02):
I don't want to be playing. Advantage could get back
in this thing.
Speaker 2 (10:05):
For that team, It might be the biggest advantage in
baseball that they don't have to every other day go
up against Toronto and then go over to Tampa Bay
and then have to battle it out with the Yankees
every year. I completely agree.
Speaker 1 (10:15):
Man, Yeah, as long as they will make Chrisale wear
a jersey he doesn't like v NEX for christ.
Speaker 2 (10:20):
Don't bring any kids into the I guess that was
Chris Sale, right.
Speaker 1 (10:23):
Adam has had a lot of funny, weird.
Speaker 2 (10:25):
Story He's like cut up the jersey and told the
kids again I don't remember. He does a lot of
weird stuff.
Speaker 1 (10:30):
Got Mitch Keller. He's been doing a lot of weird stuff.
We just I can't stop talking about mich Keller. Another
eight strikeouts, two runs on Saturday and then no decision
against the d Backs. But oh my god, man, Mitch
Keller is just unstoppable.
Speaker 2 (10:42):
Well, you know. And he's a sneaky bet right now. So,
like I was a little detached yesterday from a lot
of stuff. I didn't go. I didn't like wake up
and do my uh you know, my kind of gambling preps.
For whatever reason, Sundays is such a great day to bet.
I've kind of taken my Sundays off. I did like
a quick glance in the morning and I was like,
and the only thing that stood out to me quickly,
I look and it was Mitch Keller strikeouts at five
(11:04):
and a half and it was it was essentially even money.
It was minus one oh five. And I was like,
you know what, I don't even need to back up anything.
And I slapped two units on it. It's the only
bet I made. And he crushed it. And he would
have been the latter bet of the week because he
hit up to eight. You see anything five and a
half in under and it's a bottom fifteen or even
(11:25):
bottom you know, I guess, like the top twenty teams
that strike out in the league, it's just something you're
gonna smash with Mitch Keller because he's becoming chalk, as
we'd say in fantasy football. He's becoming like a chalk
play right now, and it.
Speaker 1 (11:36):
Is well because the market hasn't caught up to him. Well,
here's a good one from Matthew Hickey. Paxton er Biby
rest of season Ooh, you're gonna hate my answer. I
think it's packed.
Speaker 2 (11:46):
No, I know, I'm gonna say byby because I still
am like a little bit of a hater on backpacks.
And even though it's a couple of good starts, I
still like don't want to fully believe old school passions back.
So I'm gonna go with Biby. But it's a lot
closer because Paxton's looking good.
Speaker 1 (11:59):
Paxson's like the new hill, which is the old Rich Hill,
which is also the old Paxton. Redebtmer struck out twelve guys,
gave up three runs and five and two thirds against
the Twins. So unbelievable performance from Redebtmers. Also, since I
dropped lance Lynn, he has had two good starts in
a row. So who do you believe is back more
Redebt Meurs or lance Lynn.
Speaker 2 (12:21):
I mean, I'm a little bit more of a Redebtmers
guy overall. But you know I've been saying like the
thing for me with Lance Lynn. He just had crazy
good strikeout numbers that are going to follow in some
of the inconsistencies if he can get it back together.
But I'll go with Redebt Meers.
Speaker 1 (12:37):
Okay, let's get to the rookie lookie Jared Schuster recording
seven strikeouts over six eight things in one run ball
against the Mariners. So good on shooter. The Braves continue
to just pull rabbits out of their hat with these guys,
It's unbelievable. It seems like forever the Braves do this.
Dodgers calling up Bobby Miller for a start on Tuesday,
is that somebody you consider streaming? You like the Bobby Miller?
Speaker 2 (12:57):
I do like the Bobby Miller. I don't know if
I love the matchup I don't know if I love
the matchup today for Gavin Stone going up against the Braves.
I don't know if I super love it for Bobby
Miller either. But Bobby Miller, he's got an arsenal I
talked about, you know, his stuff plus numbers. We're pretty
high for the five pitches in his first start. I
don't I haven't looked recently what they are, but I'm
(13:18):
gonna imagine at least three of the five have stayed
one hundred plus on the stuff. Plus he's a big
strikeout option. I worry about like command around the zone,
but you know what, braves can get kind of free
swing in. So if you were desperate, I would attempt
to not be putting these guys in against the braves.
But like Bobby Miller is someone that you could if
you know, you know, you can take a shot.
Speaker 1 (13:40):
I mean looking, AT's got to break right for him
to get.
Speaker 2 (13:43):
You know what the best thing is you want to know,
you want to positive.
Speaker 1 (13:45):
Let's be.
Speaker 2 (13:47):
's think about positive. So we're gonna be a positive show,
not negative. Me is, if you get a picture that
blows you up in the beginning of the week, guess
what you get to do. You get to have fun
the rest of the week. You get to stream, You
get to not worry about you get to not worry
about anything. You just got to throw guys out there
to do something for you, so you're not worry about
screwing up your ratios. You have less anxiety when someone
(14:09):
screws it up in the beginning. That's the positive.
Speaker 1 (14:11):
Yeah. Positive also for me at least because I like
Edward Julian. He got called up because Horiy Polanco went
on the IL, so he's gonna get another crack at this.
Also keep an eye on this one. Barn Buckston left
the game because of a knee issue yesterday. They say,
you could have stayed in the game. He's gonna have evaluation.
But someone's asking me about Royce Lewis, and you know,
I said, well, I don't think there's a path for
(14:32):
him right now right away, and an injury to Byron
Buckston would change my opinion of that substantially. Yes.
Speaker 2 (14:38):
The only caveat is Royce Lewis has to complete the
sixty days because he was placed on the sixty day IL,
and I believe that takes him to the end of
the month, So you have at least a week before
Royce Lewis is even available to be called up. But
he has been crushing in the minors. Yeah, and he's
one of those guys that that's why I've liked him
(14:59):
because he can play so many different positions. I haven't
paid attention to where positionally he's been playing in the minors.
But again, you know when he was starting in the
outfield the other day, Yeah, when he was out here
in the AFL because he was one of those guys
I talked to. You know, they said, you're not playing
shortstop here.
Speaker 1 (15:13):
He literally played like a well and they sent down Miranda.
So maybe third bases and opening things. Oh, he's a
great athlete. So the opportunity is there for him if
you know you have I know Gallo was the question
mark two, but you know they went to Julian here
with the second base situation with Polanco, but I mean
just one of those situations. Keep an eye on. Do
you want to be ahead of the game. Pick up
Lewis for a buck now, and don't wait in case
(15:34):
bucks and go ons on the il. You never know. Box,
Oh it's nothing. The next thing you know, he's out
for two months injuries. Speaking of Byron Box positive by
the way, let's go positive. Tyler Glass now look good
on Sunday. That's a good thing. He is going to
like six k's and six innings. That's what we want
to see from Tyler Glass. Now. So I imagine the
pitching on the weekend. You're probably going to see him
(15:55):
on Friday, maybe this week, maybe.
Speaker 2 (15:58):
Thursday Friday, Yeah, yeah, Thursday Friday. One of them Friday
one starts all that matters.
Speaker 1 (16:04):
Julio uri has went on the fifteen d il with
a hamstring train, so the Dodgers again continue to be
pressed in this rotation. So now Cinderguard, ginger Guard, and
Julio Urias, all of which are useless at this point.
The Angels activated Jared Walsh from the ten day IL.
Lance mccolors is scheduled to throw a bullpen session on Sunday,
but don't get your hopes up anytime soon. They say
(16:24):
he's going to be out until at least the All
Star break probably, so there you go. So JP France
smooth sailing for the next month and a half at least.
Speaker 2 (16:34):
So I tried to pick him up in NFPC last
night on Waivers. I ended up getting Gavin Stone, and
I think I overbid a tiny bit to get him,
and I was also trying to get France, but it
ended up being only Stone. I do think France is
still kind of sneaky.
Speaker 1 (16:49):
Eloya Meenez a head of schedule in his recovery from
the appendectomy, so that's good, so we'll keep an eye
on that. Jacob de Gram is going to miss another
couple of weeks. Oh, what a surprise. It's a good
thing Dane Dunning was in my video.
Speaker 2 (17:00):
I thought we were being positive, Joe, I am, I'm.
Speaker 1 (17:02):
Being positive about Dane Dunning. I liked it. Who pitches today?
More on Dane Dunning. In a moment, Padres putting many
Machado on the IL with the fracture in the left hand.
We told you that was gonna happen a Nico Horner's back.
But Cody Bellinger goes to the IL after that little
knee issue there with that contusion, so it's retroactive to
the sixteenth, so he should be back sooner than later.
(17:23):
Three up and three down from the weekend. Framber Valdez
a shutout on Sunday to nothing as they beat the A's.
I know it's only the A's, but still, Framber's been awesome.
Two four five ERA, seventy two k's and sixty six innings.
What a horse man. Framber is just so good. Josh
low three for four with a three run home or
four rebies and a steel on Sunday against the Brewers.
Josh Lowe's another guy that I get tons of questions
(17:45):
about because people are unsure if what they're seeing is
real in your opinion when it comes to Josh Lowe,
is he the real deal or do you think this
is a bit of a mirage and a hot streak
we should be leery of.
Speaker 2 (17:56):
Now I don't know if I think we might have
moved out of like mirage ish range. You know, there
was a time where he was going to just be
a platoony type of guy because he destroys right He's
one of the best in the league hitting three twenty two,
but he's also hitting two eighty six against lefties. But
look at this right here, one hundred and eighteen at
bats against righty's only fourteen against lefties. So I mean
(18:19):
he has been straight up platoon. But guess what in
the platoon he's got an over forty percent hard hit percentage.
He is in what is this the top Let's just
round it up to say, like the top ten percentile
in XBA X like wOBA expected wOBA, and in fact
he has a top one percent wOBA in the entire league.
All that tells you is like, the guy hits hard
(18:39):
and everything is working in his favor because guess what,
the Rays are utilizing him to succeed they're putting him
in the best position rightly succeed by platooning him. So
you know he's putting up video game stats in this platoon.
This is a great sign. Yeah, here we go.
Speaker 1 (18:57):
I believe, if you look correctly, that the Josh low
Is will only succeed in day games between the hours
of one and four. So it's a two o'clock start,
he's going to be unavailable to us. But I believe,
you know, against the right handed pictures in that period
of time. Then on Tuesdays specifically, that is the time
(19:17):
to use Josh low and that's when we will use him. There.
Speaker 2 (19:19):
You know he's going to come back down to earth
a little bit. But guess what, the dude's also going
to have a twenty twenty season, So it's like.
Speaker 1 (19:26):
Yeah, sure, you know what. Example, he's a big kid.
Sometimes with those big kids, the problem is sometimes like
those swings get out of whack right mechanically when you
got these guys who are like when you know, the
taller guys, sometimes you see it. Sometimes when they're in
a groove, they're great, but sometimes mechanically it's kind of
like the the bigger pictures we've seen over the years.
Those guys were six eight six nine. Like those bigger guys,
(19:46):
sometimes they get a little out of it.
Speaker 2 (19:48):
Well, I mean, I'm going to do the thing that
some people love, some people hate. But I interviewed Josh Lo.
He's another one of those guys that I spend some time.
Speaker 1 (19:55):
They pick up these names are dropping everyone.
Speaker 2 (19:56):
Yeah I'm Dropping'm sorry, I'm gonna drop the name. And
we chatted for bit and he's like, he's not even
as tall as me. I don't think. I think he's
like a little bit shorter than me, but like he's
a really smart hitter, super competitive, and you know, he
was known for his speed at the time. And when
I was talking with him, his brother was I think,
like Taxi squaded with the Rais as they were going
into the World Series and are somewhere in the playoffs,
(20:18):
and you know, he was like, hey, listen, you know
me and him are competitive about power numbers, Like it's
not just about speed. He's like, I'm faster, but I
also think I hit the ball harder. And you know,
this is a really really smart player that you know
he's going to get He's created himself more opportunity right now.
But what I was going to say before quickly is
he is one of those guys. I think he's a
prime example of a guy that doesn't make sense in trades.
(20:40):
Do you know what I'm saying? Like, how does he
make sense in trades? If you wanted to trade for
anybody eleven Homer's nine stolen bases? What is anybody going
to give you for a guy who platoons, who puts
up those numbers? Nothing? So he's better on your team
than trying to go out and get what you're not
going to get for him. You know what I'm saying.
Speaker 1 (20:57):
There's one hilarious comment in the chat that I can't
bring up here, but it is hilarious.
Speaker 2 (21:01):
I actually appreciate it right here. We should have no relationship,
but you know.
Speaker 1 (21:06):
You see the you see you see oh yeah, yeah,
all right logan Gilbert, it was that's good.
Speaker 2 (21:13):
That's good podcasting by the way, where we're like you
see that, you see that?
Speaker 1 (21:15):
Yeah, yeah, it's great. People love that when they're just
listening to the show. Uh, Braves stuck got nine times
against the logan Gilbert is so another good outing from him.
Three down Nick Son zel over four with three k's
Anthony Rizzo over four three k's and Hazel's wizardo five inning,
six earned runs, struck out eight but still yeah, not
the best outing for him. But it's Monday, so it's
time to get back to the Brian. But not the brind.
(21:37):
Well that unless you're making you know, some chicken, right,
you're Brian the chicken Brian.
Speaker 2 (21:42):
What I was gonna say the rhine. I would say
it's that watermelon, but.
Speaker 1 (21:45):
That's the that's waters with the Brian. But it's the
grind is what. I want to get in and pick
some prizes with prize Picks. Head over to prizepicks dot
com or just download the app and start playing today
and when you do, sign up with the promo code
leading off one hundred deposit percent match up to one
hundred bucks when you put it in there. Welsh, what
do you have of the prize Picks today?
Speaker 2 (22:06):
All right, well, I did say we're gonna be positive,
but I do. I have a hater sandwich. But I
have a hater sandwich today, so it's not completely negative.
I didn't go hater's ball, I went hater sandwich. What
that means is that is two pieces of hate sandwich
between something we're positive about and guess what last time
the hater sandwich did cash. So we have to see
if this is the second hater sandwich that can cash.
(22:29):
So first up, the top bun is going to be
Harold Ramirez hits run RBI one and a half under.
We're going under today against Chris Bassett. I'm gonna just
give you both the hating pieces. The bottom hating piece
is Michael Garcia hits run RBI one and a half under,
and that is sandwich between a nice old juicy slab
(22:52):
of Bailey Ober strikeouts over at five and a half.
So that is my hater sandwich again. It is Harold
Ramirez hits runs RBI under Oberk's over and mckl Garcia
hit run RBI under.
Speaker 1 (23:05):
Yeah, I'm the over as well on Bailey Ober the
five and a half, K's Radfield Dever's hitter fantasy score
seven and a half over and wonder Franco seven hitter
fantasy score over two. On the betting front today, continuing
all with Bailely Ober again, that number five and a
half over on betting pros. It's a good number. The
juice is nice minus one O eight going over on
that Edward Cabrera, I know, is a little volatile, but
(23:27):
four and a half is a small number, so I
would put that in. You can put that into parlay
because the juice is a little heavier at one fifty
four minus side Christian hoavier at six and a half
K's you're getting one oh five on that one on
the minus side too, So that's pretty decent here against
the Milwaukee offense that really just has struggled this year.
And then the other one's Dane Donning. I want to
(23:47):
talk about Dane Dounny because the strike at number for
him is small too. The over you're getting plus money
four and a half at plus one twenty four. He
could do this today. This is very well within his range. Welsh,
what do you have on the betting world is on
this Monday afternoon evening.
Speaker 2 (24:02):
And that's funny afternoon evening.
Speaker 1 (24:05):
Well, by the way, we've got games in the daytime. Yeah, sure,
so if you career one fine.
Speaker 2 (24:09):
I saw at five and a half it was plus
one twenty five and I was tempted to take that
one because of the plus money, and I took Dane
Dunning last week when it was three and a half.
So it's already bumped up a little bit. He's actually
a pretty good bet. He's really been hitting his zones.
I'm gonna speaking of Dane Dunning in Texas. I'm gonna
take Texas up by one run through the first five.
That's almost even money. I also like the full game
(24:30):
money line. I just liked them. Their Luis Artis has
been so inconsistent, so that's why I like attack in
the first five where Dane Dunning has been pretty good.
Billy over strikeouts we talked about anywhere from like minus
one away to minus one twenty five and a little
hits parlay for you. Freddy Freeman and Otani both received
just one hit. It is minus one sixteen, so not
quite even money. But you just need one hit from
(24:51):
Freeman and one from Otani. Pair those two together, boom.
Those are my plays.
Speaker 1 (24:55):
Yeah, Freddie Freeman back in Atlanta today, so that should
always be a good time. You know what else, it's
a good time. It's so rare go join today fantasypros
dot Com slash collect sign up. It's free digital cards,
create your fantasy team, challenge others with your own fantasy knowledge.
You scout, you buy, you sell, you compete. It's a
good time. And if you like to compete, go ahead
(25:16):
and check out fantasypros dot com slash Leading Off League
if you have a so rare account, if you haven't already,
go get one. And also some fabulous prizes to be
given away. A free subscription to MLB TV is gonna
happen there, So there you go. So lots of fun
things going on in that front. Today in DFS again,
looks kind of like the betting today. It's not my
favorite slate, Like I don't like the way things have
(25:37):
kind of flushed themselves out. A lot of four outcome
games where the good pictures are kind of going against
each other, and I tend to stay away from those
unless I really feel strongly about one side. Bailly Ober again,
it's just Bailly Ober day today, So if he busts out,
it's gonna be a terrible day. We're all gonna be
miserable tomorrow. It's gonna be worse than the wolf spider
underneath our chair. If that happens, there you go ten
(25:58):
point three k Luis CaCO Zo point five. I do
the same hitting lineup and just switch those two guys
in and out do two lineups Minnesota, Seattle. I want
to approach those lineups. Just go all in on the
things I feel good about. Ty France two point eight,
Edward Julian two point five, Michael Harris just two point seven.
There getting some interesting discount on him. Let's look at
the home run board. So what happened this weekend, Well,
(26:21):
somebody's scratching twenty. Prime Time is at eighteen Dingers PHB
is up to seventeen. Collsands at sixteen. Welsh, I don't
see you on the board.
Speaker 2 (26:29):
I for sure thought I was gonna be I thought
you were gonna actually set me up to be middle
of the board. But I did get one this weekend.
I'm up at thirteen. But all you sexy home run
hitters are moving on up.
Speaker 1 (26:40):
Yeah, and again, if you want to get in on this,
there's still plenty of time. Fantasypros dot Com slash chat,
join our discord. It's free and you can go premium
Fantasypros dot Com slash Premium. When you do, you're able
to go ahead and make home run calls in the
contest channel. And if you just want to throw your
hand out there and say, hey, I'd like to go
premium for free. We'll make a comment. Subscribe to our
(27:02):
YouTube channel. We've got great content leading off every day,
amazing videos every single day. Welsh. Where you going with
your home run call for today? My friend.
Speaker 2 (27:09):
By the way, I want to point out Casey just
said Cabrera over ten and a half k's if that's
on price Picks. I'm also smashed you. That is a
good love that if that's a combo one.
Speaker 1 (27:18):
I Casey shout out to you, Casey. Casey's a good
peanut and cracker Jack. Casey comes with good jokes, good
good information. I like that. I like that mix. You know,
people don't realize like we'll show a couple of the
comments here in the chat. For every comment a show,
there's like fifty. I feel like in this chat it's
crazy every single day. It's so great.
Speaker 2 (27:36):
We love you guys, great pack. Okay, I've got Maddelson.
I'm gonna pick on Gavin Stone today Atlanta, going up
against Gavid Stone. I'm gonna go with Metdelson.
Speaker 1 (27:45):
All right, I am going to try to help a
dear friend of mine today. This guy I'm calling Julio Rodriguez.
Let's go. I want to see this man holding a
tried in today, not once, but twice. That's right, let's go.
I want Julio breakout. It's just time. We're overdue.
Speaker 2 (28:01):
Go for three like the Trident, Just go for three.
Speaker 1 (28:04):
Okay, all right, Well I think that's getting greedy. I
was just gonna try for two, but maybe just one.
I'll settle for one. But today's Bailey over Day. So
if that doesn't work out, tomorrow will be miserable. And
that'll be even better show because but more miserable, it's
equally fun. So hope everyone's having a good Monday, and
no Mondays can be rough, but hopefully we gave you
a little Joey here for a little half hour of
(28:24):
baseball talk. We'll be back again tomorrow to do it again.
If you haven't already, subscribe to Fantasy Bros. MLB, it's
an incredible channel. The Waiver Wire video crushed last week.
The trade video that Welsh does every week crushes. If
you want to understand more about so rare, he's got
videos about how that whole thing works, So go check
that out too, and don't forget to go play prize picks.
(28:45):
And he used the promo code leading off and go
smash that combo that Casey just gave us. That'll do
it for us. So the story of the game goes on.
Crush the Spider with the trident. That's the image in
your head for today. That'll do it for us. The
story of the game goes on for the Well, I'm
Joey P. We'll see you next time. Kids. Enjoy your Monday,
enjoy your baseball.
Speaker 2 (29:06):
God Spider m m
Speaker 1 (29:15):
H m hmm
Welcome in everybody to Fantasy Boroughs MLB. This is Leading
Off Live, brought you by Prize Picks. Sign up for
Prize Picks today and use the promo codes leading Off
when you do to get one hundred percent deposit match
up to one hundred dollars. It's me Joey p That
of course is the Welsh and it's you, the Peanuts,
the Cracker Jacks, the folks in the chat. What a
fun weekend we had. The weather was much better here
(00:28):
in New Jersey. That was good. Got to get all
of our football games in this weekend. Had a glorious
flag football game on Sunday. So I'm still on a
high from that one. And Welsh certainly a lot of
baseball to get to as well. So how was your weekend, buddy?
That was everything good?
Speaker 2 (00:46):
Sure, let's do that, but let me let me ask
you what you would do in this situation.
Speaker 1 (00:51):
I don't have That is a no. I'm just gonna
take that will just.
Speaker 2 (00:54):
All the days, let's just put it in there. So
I went to my kid they had a birthday party
and I was there. Make this quick, and I'm sitting
in one of those like low beach chair type of things,
just sitting back and the host of the house is
talking to my wife and goes, oh, wow, that's a
massive spider, and and she looks down at me. Something
(01:15):
you need to know about me. I'm massively arachnophobic. The
one thing I am terrified of is spiders. And I
had a moment where I had to think to myself,
do I go into my you know, but that's what
I do. I go into the how I feel where
(01:37):
I want to jump up scream going like that like
that would be the scream. Or do I slowly get up,
you know, very manly like, oh either spider there. And
I decided to do the more manly thing. And it
was the biggest, nastiest It's like a wolf spider and uh,
(01:58):
it ruined my weekend. I still I'm dreaming about it.
I'm dreaming about it right now.
Speaker 1 (02:03):
Wow. That's a good story there. Yeah, Arizona, you got
some weird got the scorpions out there, You got a
lot of things.
Speaker 2 (02:08):
You know what. Scorpions don't affect me. I've stepped on
a scorpion. We've I've seen hundreds. We had a house.
I remember we bought a house. First night we stayed there.
We found twenty scorpions around. Scorpions don't affect me, but man,
despite it was a go look up a wolf spider.
It was at my feet and she's casually like, hey,
look there's a little spider, and I'm like, well look
at me. Gonna go drown myself in the pool. Sorry, guys,
(02:30):
bye bye.
Speaker 1 (02:31):
There you go. All right, Well, let's talk some baseball.
On that note, Justin Verlander, you know, he went eight innings,
not eight legs, so he was very good. Finally for
the New York Mets, they got good outings on the
same day from Surezer and from Justin Verlander, who knows
what to say. So it looks like, you know that
that that one big night, that comeback win really kind
(02:52):
of spurned the steam on. We'll see if it continues
to go. Obviously the Guardians having some issues of their own.
Good sels air mirrors back. He at a home run
yesterd so that's positive. He's had a quiet beginning to
the season. Still good, which is not quite Jose Ramirez,
Oh my god, he's so great. He's MVP kind of season.
It's it'll be interesting to see if he's available on
some trade potential talks here. Ashoy Otani was delivered another
(03:15):
great performance. No decision though for him against the Twins
on Sunday. One run, two hits, six innings for him.
We got a return for a Yankee, so Damingo hermon
out with the suspension. Louis Severino scattered four hits, struck
out five guys, one earned run his season debut on Sunday.
So Severino rest of season, Welsh, This is a picture
who's pitching for a contract. This is a picture of
(03:36):
the Yankees desperately need to perform. Well, what's your rest
of season outlook for Severino? Now that he's back. He
looks sharp in this first outing. Are you somebody that's
back in let's go Louis Severino or do you have
any concerns because we have seen some inconsistencies from him
over the last few years, although last season a strong finish,
no doubt. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (03:54):
I think a lot of the inconsistency is just about also,
like health and being out there. And now that he's back,
I do think they're going to baby him. I think
he's going to be babied over the next couple starts.
I don't expect to see any seven inning outings or
anything like that. But you know, as far as in
line with who he is, K percentage was there in
that first start, he looked good. They really babied the
entire rehab process. So actually, I think this is a
(04:17):
really solid time. I don't think the price has caught
up to Louis Severino, you know what I mean, Like,
I don't think Louis Severino can be over this season
is collectively there on who he is coming off of
this injury. So to your point, this might be one
of those guys you said before we were talking about trades.
This might be a guy that you can go acquire
and it's like ninety cents on the dollar type of
(04:39):
thing where you know you're paying for Louis Severino. But
that's not really the guy he's going to be. Because
he can be one of the front line aces for
this team, well.
Speaker 1 (04:46):
He absolutely can be, and I think with a contract
on the line for him this year, I would expect that.
I'm expecting Louis Severino to be.
Speaker 2 (04:52):
A guy that are you a big contract your guy?
Speaker 1 (04:54):
Well? Yeah, because because I used to have his argument
with Sealy where you know, we both approach this argument
in a different way, whereas I took the data and
over I think it was like over a ten year
period of basically you know, all star level, like well
above replacement level players, and when you look at most
(05:15):
of the time they perform at their level or above
almost thirty percent of the time, more a higher rather
than their normal level of productivity. The problem is a
lot of these the data when you get to the
contract year guys. So many players are on one year
deals who aren't very good, who are under replacement players.
They taint the data. So you look, I said, oh,
players don't play better in contract years. No, bad players
(05:38):
don't play good in contract years, and that's why they're
on a contract year every year. There's a difference. You
can't take it from that data. You have to take
it from the top third of the league and look
at when they are free agents, and typically more often
than not, they play. I think it's about I think
when I did the research for Black Book.
Speaker 2 (05:53):
I remember you going through this. I remember you had
like a study you had done with this.
Speaker 1 (05:56):
I did. I did because I was I knew I
was right. I needed to find the data that backed
me up. And the then the X plug in the data,
so to speak, was the fact that if you look
too much about every free agent, well, yeah, every free
agent is not good because most of the league is
a free agent over a year and it's baseball, and
(06:17):
that you can look at the NFL the same kind
of concept. But baseball, especially the players that are above
replacement value typically play at their level or above again
above it was more almost twenty eight or I think
twenty nine percent of the time above of twenty eight
percent above their normal.
Speaker 2 (06:33):
So you're saying millions of dollars is going to incent
players to play better.
Speaker 1 (06:39):
That's crazy, I know, even great crazy time. It's crazy.
Speaker 2 (06:43):
And you know what's even grazier. There might be a
correlation to the more dollars that they get that they
play even better. Like the higher dollar guys even play better.
Isn't that great? And then the Wan Soto didn't get
the memo, but everybody else.
Speaker 1 (06:55):
Well, I mean he's still got time to get it.
I just think that might be a batters I think
with him in that ballpark, something about I don't know,
maybe I don't know what it is, maybe just not
a West Coast guy, I don't know. I mean, it's Heaven.
It's a big place. I'd love to go to San
Diego and just stay there forever. Christopher Morrell, can he
stay forever? Another home run for him? He has eight
runs in eleven games. It's getting called up. He's a
(07:17):
fersatile player. But the slash right now three seventy three,
ninety six, nine to fifty seven with fifteen runs, fourteen
ribis and a steal for good measure, what do you
make of this guy? I mean, this has just been
an incredible talk about getting called up and being a
waiver wire return. Christopher Morell has been unbelievable.
Speaker 2 (07:35):
Well, I mean, they love Morel was one of the
best minor league players after they had sent him down,
so that wasn't even a question. Morell has got big
bat speed that puts up big, big home run numbers,
and he put up I think he was, like God,
I'm trying to remember it, but he had like eight
homers in his first eleven games, and he's one of
the very few players who have ever done that. A
(07:56):
sixty percent hard hit percentage. Right now, he's already put
up almost a fourteen EV max EV. His average is
around ninety three and a half. His problem is, and
we've got I think we've talked about this. It's a
big swing and miss is thirty seven percent strikeout rate
right thirty seven and a half percent strikeout rate right now,
So how is he going to live off of it?
He doesn't have any hits off of off speed pitches.
(08:17):
He's dominating fastballs right now, so he's gonna start to
get pitched differently. But that huge bat speed is keeping
him in the game. It's kind of a hot old
school hobbier bias esque, if you will, you know what
I'm saying, Like there's a lot I did not like
that equivalent, No, no, but like the it's the good
hobbyer buys because thirty seven percent striker, Like we're lotting
(08:38):
a player. We're like, oh my god, he's got thirty
seven percent strikeout rate. That's really bad. But you know,
he's been such an offensive force. You're just gonna have
to watch and see how he adjusts to win the league.
Adjust But like, it doesn't matter. He's he's awesome. He's
a huge pickup. You hold on and you hope that
it holds the entire season.
Speaker 1 (08:56):
Here's a question from Dan g one of the Peanuts
and Cracker Jacks of the chat. A league mate offered
Jordan Walker for morell in a keeper league. Who would
rather have a keeper situation?
Speaker 2 (09:05):
Jordan Walker, I would very much rather have it. So
he gets Jordan Wahite. That's a great ascept. That's like,
that's like the I want I want to play in
that league, and it's a sexy I of Dynasty as
so fun. Someone's like, ooh, look at this young guy
who's hitting a well. I'll give you the top prospect
in baseball for him because he's started for eleven games
in the miners and you're like, yes, give me, give me.
Speaker 1 (09:25):
Those are the best. Those are absolutely the best. Chris Sale,
he's starting to pitch pretty well. Uh this is another
good performance for Chris Sale. He's starting to look like himself.
Eight strikeout, six oh. Third. James Paxson was good again
over the weekend. Uh. I said this on Sunday on
the television show. I said, if Sale can be Sale
and Paxton continues to pitch the way he is looked
(09:46):
so far in these first two outings, the Red Sox
can start to get back into this race because it's
the balance schedule again, so they don't have to beat
up on each other as much in that division where
I think most of the good teams in the America
League are in the East. I think we can all
agree on it.
Speaker 2 (10:00):
About to say, you don't want to that's it.
Speaker 1 (10:02):
I don't want to be playing. Advantage could get back
in this thing.
Speaker 2 (10:05):
For that team, It might be the biggest advantage in
baseball that they don't have to every other day go
up against Toronto and then go over to Tampa Bay
and then have to battle it out with the Yankees
every year. I completely agree.
Speaker 1 (10:15):
Man, Yeah, as long as they will make Chrisale wear
a jersey he doesn't like v NEX for christ.
Speaker 2 (10:20):
Don't bring any kids into the I guess that was
Chris Sale, right.
Speaker 1 (10:23):
Adam has had a lot of funny, weird.
Speaker 2 (10:25):
Story He's like cut up the jersey and told the
kids again I don't remember. He does a lot of
weird stuff.
Speaker 1 (10:30):
Got Mitch Keller. He's been doing a lot of weird stuff.
We just I can't stop talking about mich Keller. Another
eight strikeouts, two runs on Saturday and then no decision
against the d Backs. But oh my god, man, Mitch
Keller is just unstoppable.
Speaker 2 (10:42):
Well, you know. And he's a sneaky bet right now. So,
like I was a little detached yesterday from a lot
of stuff. I didn't go. I didn't like wake up
and do my uh you know, my kind of gambling preps.
For whatever reason, Sundays is such a great day to bet.
I've kind of taken my Sundays off. I did like
a quick glance in the morning and I was like,
and the only thing that stood out to me quickly,
I look and it was Mitch Keller strikeouts at five
(11:04):
and a half and it was it was essentially even money.
It was minus one oh five. And I was like,
you know what, I don't even need to back up anything.
And I slapped two units on it. It's the only
bet I made. And he crushed it. And he would
have been the latter bet of the week because he
hit up to eight. You see anything five and a
half in under and it's a bottom fifteen or even
(11:25):
bottom you know, I guess, like the top twenty teams
that strike out in the league, it's just something you're
gonna smash with Mitch Keller because he's becoming chalk, as
we'd say in fantasy football. He's becoming like a chalk
play right now, and it.
Speaker 1 (11:36):
Is well because the market hasn't caught up to him. Well,
here's a good one from Matthew Hickey. Paxton er Biby
rest of season Ooh, you're gonna hate my answer. I
think it's packed.
Speaker 2 (11:46):
No, I know, I'm gonna say byby because I still
am like a little bit of a hater on backpacks.
And even though it's a couple of good starts, I
still like don't want to fully believe old school passions back.
So I'm gonna go with Biby. But it's a lot
closer because Paxton's looking good.
Speaker 1 (11:59):
Paxson's like the new hill, which is the old Rich Hill,
which is also the old Paxton. Redebtmer struck out twelve guys,
gave up three runs and five and two thirds against
the Twins. So unbelievable performance from Redebtmers. Also, since I
dropped lance Lynn, he has had two good starts in
a row. So who do you believe is back more
Redebt Meurs or lance Lynn.
Speaker 2 (12:21):
I mean, I'm a little bit more of a Redebtmers
guy overall. But you know I've been saying like the
thing for me with Lance Lynn. He just had crazy
good strikeout numbers that are going to follow in some
of the inconsistencies if he can get it back together.
But I'll go with Redebt Meers.
Speaker 1 (12:37):
Okay, let's get to the rookie lookie Jared Schuster recording
seven strikeouts over six eight things in one run ball
against the Mariners. So good on shooter. The Braves continue
to just pull rabbits out of their hat with these guys,
It's unbelievable. It seems like forever the Braves do this.
Dodgers calling up Bobby Miller for a start on Tuesday,
is that somebody you consider streaming? You like the Bobby Miller?
Speaker 2 (12:57):
I do like the Bobby Miller. I don't know if
I love the matchup I don't know if I love
the matchup today for Gavin Stone going up against the Braves.
I don't know if I super love it for Bobby
Miller either. But Bobby Miller, he's got an arsenal I
talked about, you know, his stuff plus numbers. We're pretty
high for the five pitches in his first start. I
don't I haven't looked recently what they are, but I'm
(13:18):
gonna imagine at least three of the five have stayed
one hundred plus on the stuff. Plus he's a big
strikeout option. I worry about like command around the zone,
but you know what, braves can get kind of free
swing in. So if you were desperate, I would attempt
to not be putting these guys in against the braves.
But like Bobby Miller is someone that you could if
you know, you know, you can take a shot.
Speaker 1 (13:40):
I mean looking, AT's got to break right for him
to get.
Speaker 2 (13:43):
You know what the best thing is you want to know,
you want to positive.
Speaker 1 (13:45):
Let's be.
Speaker 2 (13:47):
's think about positive. So we're gonna be a positive show,
not negative. Me is, if you get a picture that
blows you up in the beginning of the week, guess
what you get to do. You get to have fun
the rest of the week. You get to stream, You
get to not worry about you get to not worry
about anything. You just got to throw guys out there
to do something for you, so you're not worry about
screwing up your ratios. You have less anxiety when someone
(14:09):
screws it up in the beginning. That's the positive.
Speaker 1 (14:11):
Yeah. Positive also for me at least because I like
Edward Julian. He got called up because Horiy Polanco went
on the IL, so he's gonna get another crack at this.
Also keep an eye on this one. Barn Buckston left
the game because of a knee issue yesterday. They say,
you could have stayed in the game. He's gonna have evaluation.
But someone's asking me about Royce Lewis, and you know,
I said, well, I don't think there's a path for
(14:32):
him right now right away, and an injury to Byron
Buckston would change my opinion of that substantially. Yes.
Speaker 2 (14:38):
The only caveat is Royce Lewis has to complete the
sixty days because he was placed on the sixty day IL,
and I believe that takes him to the end of
the month, So you have at least a week before
Royce Lewis is even available to be called up. But
he has been crushing in the minors. Yeah, and he's
one of those guys that that's why I've liked him
(14:59):
because he can play so many different positions. I haven't
paid attention to where positionally he's been playing in the minors.
But again, you know when he was starting in the
outfield the other day, Yeah, when he was out here
in the AFL because he was one of those guys
I talked to. You know, they said, you're not playing
shortstop here.
Speaker 1 (15:13):
He literally played like a well and they sent down Miranda.
So maybe third bases and opening things. Oh, he's a
great athlete. So the opportunity is there for him if
you know you have I know Gallo was the question
mark two, but you know they went to Julian here
with the second base situation with Polanco, but I mean
just one of those situations. Keep an eye on. Do
you want to be ahead of the game. Pick up
Lewis for a buck now, and don't wait in case
(15:34):
bucks and go ons on the il. You never know. Box,
Oh it's nothing. The next thing you know, he's out
for two months injuries. Speaking of Byron Box positive by
the way, let's go positive. Tyler Glass now look good
on Sunday. That's a good thing. He is going to
like six k's and six innings. That's what we want
to see from Tyler Glass. Now. So I imagine the
pitching on the weekend. You're probably going to see him
(15:55):
on Friday, maybe this week, maybe.
Speaker 2 (15:58):
Thursday Friday, Yeah, yeah, Thursday Friday. One of them Friday
one starts all that matters.
Speaker 1 (16:04):
Julio uri has went on the fifteen d il with
a hamstring train, so the Dodgers again continue to be
pressed in this rotation. So now Cinderguard, ginger Guard, and
Julio Urias, all of which are useless at this point.
The Angels activated Jared Walsh from the ten day IL.
Lance mccolors is scheduled to throw a bullpen session on Sunday,
but don't get your hopes up anytime soon. They say
(16:24):
he's going to be out until at least the All
Star break probably, so there you go. So JP France
smooth sailing for the next month and a half at least.
Speaker 2 (16:34):
So I tried to pick him up in NFPC last
night on Waivers. I ended up getting Gavin Stone, and
I think I overbid a tiny bit to get him,
and I was also trying to get France, but it
ended up being only Stone. I do think France is
still kind of sneaky.
Speaker 1 (16:49):
Eloya Meenez a head of schedule in his recovery from
the appendectomy, so that's good, so we'll keep an eye
on that. Jacob de Gram is going to miss another
couple of weeks. Oh, what a surprise. It's a good
thing Dane Dunning was in my video.
Speaker 2 (17:00):
I thought we were being positive, Joe, I am, I'm.
Speaker 1 (17:02):
Being positive about Dane Dunning. I liked it. Who pitches today?
More on Dane Dunning. In a moment, Padres putting many
Machado on the IL with the fracture in the left hand.
We told you that was gonna happen a Nico Horner's back.
But Cody Bellinger goes to the IL after that little
knee issue there with that contusion, so it's retroactive to
the sixteenth, so he should be back sooner than later.
(17:23):
Three up and three down from the weekend. Framber Valdez
a shutout on Sunday to nothing as they beat the A's.
I know it's only the A's, but still, Framber's been awesome.
Two four five ERA, seventy two k's and sixty six innings.
What a horse man. Framber is just so good. Josh
low three for four with a three run home or
four rebies and a steel on Sunday against the Brewers.
Josh Lowe's another guy that I get tons of questions
(17:45):
about because people are unsure if what they're seeing is
real in your opinion when it comes to Josh Lowe,
is he the real deal or do you think this
is a bit of a mirage and a hot streak
we should be leery of.
Speaker 2 (17:56):
Now I don't know if I think we might have
moved out of like mirage ish range. You know, there
was a time where he was going to just be
a platoony type of guy because he destroys right He's
one of the best in the league hitting three twenty two,
but he's also hitting two eighty six against lefties. But
look at this right here, one hundred and eighteen at
bats against righty's only fourteen against lefties. So I mean
(18:19):
he has been straight up platoon. But guess what in
the platoon he's got an over forty percent hard hit percentage.
He is in what is this the top Let's just
round it up to say, like the top ten percentile
in XBA X like wOBA expected wOBA, and in fact
he has a top one percent wOBA in the entire league.
All that tells you is like, the guy hits hard
(18:39):
and everything is working in his favor because guess what,
the Rays are utilizing him to succeed they're putting him
in the best position rightly succeed by platooning him. So
you know he's putting up video game stats in this platoon.
This is a great sign. Yeah, here we go.
Speaker 1 (18:57):
I believe, if you look correctly, that the Josh low
Is will only succeed in day games between the hours
of one and four. So it's a two o'clock start,
he's going to be unavailable to us. But I believe,
you know, against the right handed pictures in that period
of time. Then on Tuesdays specifically, that is the time
(19:17):
to use Josh low and that's when we will use him. There.
Speaker 2 (19:19):
You know he's going to come back down to earth
a little bit. But guess what, the dude's also going
to have a twenty twenty season, So it's like.
Speaker 1 (19:26):
Yeah, sure, you know what. Example, he's a big kid.
Sometimes with those big kids, the problem is sometimes like
those swings get out of whack right mechanically when you
got these guys who are like when you know, the
taller guys, sometimes you see it. Sometimes when they're in
a groove, they're great, but sometimes mechanically it's kind of
like the the bigger pictures we've seen over the years.
Those guys were six eight six nine. Like those bigger guys,
(19:46):
sometimes they get a little out of it.
Speaker 2 (19:48):
Well, I mean, I'm going to do the thing that
some people love, some people hate. But I interviewed Josh Lo.
He's another one of those guys that I spend some time.
Speaker 1 (19:55):
They pick up these names are dropping everyone.
Speaker 2 (19:56):
Yeah I'm Dropping'm sorry, I'm gonna drop the name. And
we chatted for bit and he's like, he's not even
as tall as me. I don't think. I think he's
like a little bit shorter than me, but like he's
a really smart hitter, super competitive, and you know, he
was known for his speed at the time. And when
I was talking with him, his brother was I think,
like Taxi squaded with the Rais as they were going
into the World Series and are somewhere in the playoffs,
(20:18):
and you know, he was like, hey, listen, you know
me and him are competitive about power numbers, Like it's
not just about speed. He's like, I'm faster, but I
also think I hit the ball harder. And you know,
this is a really really smart player that you know
he's going to get He's created himself more opportunity right now.
But what I was going to say before quickly is
he is one of those guys. I think he's a
prime example of a guy that doesn't make sense in trades.
(20:40):
Do you know what I'm saying? Like, how does he
make sense in trades? If you wanted to trade for
anybody eleven Homer's nine stolen bases? What is anybody going
to give you for a guy who platoons, who puts
up those numbers? Nothing? So he's better on your team
than trying to go out and get what you're not
going to get for him. You know what I'm saying.
Speaker 1 (20:57):
There's one hilarious comment in the chat that I can't
bring up here, but it is hilarious.
Speaker 2 (21:01):
I actually appreciate it right here. We should have no relationship,
but you know.
Speaker 1 (21:06):
You see the you see you see oh yeah, yeah,
all right logan Gilbert, it was that's good.
Speaker 2 (21:13):
That's good podcasting by the way, where we're like you
see that, you see that?
Speaker 1 (21:15):
Yeah, yeah, it's great. People love that when they're just
listening to the show. Uh, Braves stuck got nine times
against the logan Gilbert is so another good outing from him.
Three down Nick Son zel over four with three k's
Anthony Rizzo over four three k's and Hazel's wizardo five inning,
six earned runs, struck out eight but still yeah, not
the best outing for him. But it's Monday, so it's
time to get back to the Brian. But not the brind.
(21:37):
Well that unless you're making you know, some chicken, right,
you're Brian the chicken Brian.
Speaker 2 (21:42):
What I was gonna say the rhine. I would say
it's that watermelon, but.
Speaker 1 (21:45):
That's the that's waters with the Brian. But it's the
grind is what. I want to get in and pick
some prizes with prize Picks. Head over to prizepicks dot
com or just download the app and start playing today
and when you do, sign up with the promo code
leading off one hundred deposit percent match up to one
hundred bucks when you put it in there. Welsh, what
do you have of the prize Picks today?
Speaker 2 (22:06):
All right, well, I did say we're gonna be positive,
but I do. I have a hater sandwich. But I
have a hater sandwich today, so it's not completely negative.
I didn't go hater's ball, I went hater sandwich. What
that means is that is two pieces of hate sandwich
between something we're positive about and guess what last time
the hater sandwich did cash. So we have to see
if this is the second hater sandwich that can cash.
(22:29):
So first up, the top bun is going to be
Harold Ramirez hits run RBI one and a half under.
We're going under today against Chris Bassett. I'm gonna just
give you both the hating pieces. The bottom hating piece
is Michael Garcia hits run RBI one and a half under,
and that is sandwich between a nice old juicy slab
(22:52):
of Bailey Ober strikeouts over at five and a half.
So that is my hater sandwich again. It is Harold
Ramirez hits runs RBI under Oberk's over and mckl Garcia
hit run RBI under.
Speaker 1 (23:05):
Yeah, I'm the over as well on Bailey Ober the
five and a half, K's Radfield Dever's hitter fantasy score
seven and a half over and wonder Franco seven hitter
fantasy score over two. On the betting front today, continuing
all with Bailely Ober again, that number five and a
half over on betting pros. It's a good number. The
juice is nice minus one O eight going over on
that Edward Cabrera, I know, is a little volatile, but
(23:27):
four and a half is a small number, so I
would put that in. You can put that into parlay
because the juice is a little heavier at one fifty
four minus side Christian hoavier at six and a half
K's you're getting one oh five on that one on
the minus side too, So that's pretty decent here against
the Milwaukee offense that really just has struggled this year.
And then the other one's Dane Donning. I want to
(23:47):
talk about Dane Dounny because the strike at number for
him is small too. The over you're getting plus money
four and a half at plus one twenty four. He
could do this today. This is very well within his range. Welsh,
what do you have on the betting world is on
this Monday afternoon evening.
Speaker 2 (24:02):
And that's funny afternoon evening.
Speaker 1 (24:05):
Well, by the way, we've got games in the daytime. Yeah, sure,
so if you career one fine.
Speaker 2 (24:09):
I saw at five and a half it was plus
one twenty five and I was tempted to take that
one because of the plus money, and I took Dane
Dunning last week when it was three and a half.
So it's already bumped up a little bit. He's actually
a pretty good bet. He's really been hitting his zones.
I'm gonna speaking of Dane Dunning in Texas. I'm gonna
take Texas up by one run through the first five.
That's almost even money. I also like the full game
(24:30):
money line. I just liked them. Their Luis Artis has
been so inconsistent, so that's why I like attack in
the first five where Dane Dunning has been pretty good.
Billy over strikeouts we talked about anywhere from like minus
one away to minus one twenty five and a little
hits parlay for you. Freddy Freeman and Otani both received
just one hit. It is minus one sixteen, so not
quite even money. But you just need one hit from
(24:51):
Freeman and one from Otani. Pair those two together, boom.
Those are my plays.
Speaker 1 (24:55):
Yeah, Freddie Freeman back in Atlanta today, so that should
always be a good time. You know what else, it's
a good time. It's so rare go join today fantasypros
dot Com slash collect sign up. It's free digital cards,
create your fantasy team, challenge others with your own fantasy knowledge.
You scout, you buy, you sell, you compete. It's a
good time. And if you like to compete, go ahead
(25:16):
and check out fantasypros dot com slash Leading Off League
if you have a so rare account, if you haven't already,
go get one. And also some fabulous prizes to be
given away. A free subscription to MLB TV is gonna
happen there, So there you go. So lots of fun
things going on in that front. Today in DFS again,
looks kind of like the betting today. It's not my
favorite slate, Like I don't like the way things have
(25:37):
kind of flushed themselves out. A lot of four outcome
games where the good pictures are kind of going against
each other, and I tend to stay away from those
unless I really feel strongly about one side. Bailly Ober again,
it's just Bailly Ober day today, So if he busts out,
it's gonna be a terrible day. We're all gonna be
miserable tomorrow. It's gonna be worse than the wolf spider
underneath our chair. If that happens, there you go ten
(25:58):
point three k Luis CaCO Zo point five. I do
the same hitting lineup and just switch those two guys
in and out do two lineups Minnesota, Seattle. I want
to approach those lineups. Just go all in on the
things I feel good about. Ty France two point eight,
Edward Julian two point five, Michael Harris just two point seven.
There getting some interesting discount on him. Let's look at
the home run board. So what happened this weekend, Well,
(26:21):
somebody's scratching twenty. Prime Time is at eighteen Dingers PHB
is up to seventeen. Collsands at sixteen. Welsh, I don't
see you on the board.
Speaker 2 (26:29):
I for sure thought I was gonna be I thought
you were gonna actually set me up to be middle
of the board. But I did get one this weekend.
I'm up at thirteen. But all you sexy home run
hitters are moving on up.
Speaker 1 (26:40):
Yeah, and again, if you want to get in on this,
there's still plenty of time. Fantasypros dot Com slash chat,
join our discord. It's free and you can go premium
Fantasypros dot Com slash Premium. When you do, you're able
to go ahead and make home run calls in the
contest channel. And if you just want to throw your
hand out there and say, hey, I'd like to go
premium for free. We'll make a comment. Subscribe to our
(27:02):
YouTube channel. We've got great content leading off every day,
amazing videos every single day. Welsh. Where you going with
your home run call for today? My friend.
Speaker 2 (27:09):
By the way, I want to point out Casey just
said Cabrera over ten and a half k's if that's
on price Picks. I'm also smashed you. That is a
good love that if that's a combo one.
Speaker 1 (27:18):
I Casey shout out to you, Casey. Casey's a good
peanut and cracker Jack. Casey comes with good jokes, good
good information. I like that. I like that mix. You know,
people don't realize like we'll show a couple of the
comments here in the chat. For every comment a show,
there's like fifty. I feel like in this chat it's
crazy every single day. It's so great.
Speaker 2 (27:36):
We love you guys, great pack. Okay, I've got Maddelson.
I'm gonna pick on Gavin Stone today Atlanta, going up
against Gavid Stone. I'm gonna go with Metdelson.
Speaker 1 (27:45):
All right, I am going to try to help a
dear friend of mine today. This guy I'm calling Julio Rodriguez.
Let's go. I want to see this man holding a
tried in today, not once, but twice. That's right, let's go.
I want Julio breakout. It's just time. We're overdue.
Speaker 2 (28:01):
Go for three like the Trident, Just go for three.
Speaker 1 (28:04):
Okay, all right, Well I think that's getting greedy. I
was just gonna try for two, but maybe just one.
I'll settle for one. But today's Bailey over Day. So
if that doesn't work out, tomorrow will be miserable. And
that'll be even better show because but more miserable, it's
equally fun. So hope everyone's having a good Monday, and
no Mondays can be rough, but hopefully we gave you
a little Joey here for a little half hour of
(28:24):
baseball talk. We'll be back again tomorrow to do it again.
If you haven't already, subscribe to Fantasy Bros. MLB, it's
an incredible channel. The Waiver Wire video crushed last week.
The trade video that Welsh does every week crushes. If
you want to understand more about so rare, he's got
videos about how that whole thing works, So go check
that out too, and don't forget to go play prize picks.
(28:45):
And he used the promo code leading off and go
smash that combo that Casey just gave us. That'll do
it for us. So the story of the game goes on.
Crush the Spider with the trident. That's the image in
your head for today. That'll do it for us. The
story of the game goes on for the Well, I'm
Joey P. We'll see you next time. Kids. Enjoy your Monday,
enjoy your baseball.
Speaker 2 (29:06):
God Spider m m
Speaker 1 (29:15):
H m hmm
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