Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
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Speaker 2 (00:35):
Hello everybody, Welcome into the Cycle Part two. For this week,
I am Ryan Warmley, joined by Mike Mayor. I am
back from my week off. Mayor on I believe it
was this of the three episodes last week you talked
about how you were being all nice and polite and friendly,
not making fun of me for not being here. I
was traveling for the death of a family member to
(00:55):
do family function stuff, so I was listening a little
bit to the episode. I mean I was actually offendive,
but I was like, really, this is a pretty legit. Like,
I know, when I leave for football, you want to
give me a hard time.
Speaker 3 (01:06):
I get it.
Speaker 2 (01:07):
It's you know, partly required of me by the job,
and partly it's just easier to focus on one sport.
Speaker 3 (01:12):
But I thought this was a fairly legitimate reason.
Speaker 4 (01:15):
It was I wasn't going to say that on air
while you while you were traveling, and I chose not
to say anything, and now here I am.
Speaker 3 (01:22):
But but you wanted credit for not saying anything.
Speaker 4 (01:24):
Well, now I'm just gonna get torn apart on YouTube
comments again because now you're now you're just making me
feel bad and you're just like that teeing me up.
Speaker 5 (01:30):
For the for the monsters.
Speaker 3 (01:32):
That that was actually like pretty intentional on my part. No,
I was not actually offended by you.
Speaker 2 (01:37):
It was it was a wonderful trip because he baseball
is very important. He's really the reason I became a
baseball fan of my grandfather who passed. So it was
a few months ago, so kind of that initial shock
was had, you know, subsided. But we we got together
for a celebration of life in Baltimore. We got a
suite at an Orioles game. I've never had a box
at Camden Yards before. I've been lucky enough to be
at sweets at a couple other stadiums.
Speaker 3 (01:59):
Actually, not for baseball.
Speaker 2 (02:00):
They're always for different sports, but it was my first
time at Camden Yards and my nephew was there. We
got the whole family together, eight crabs played games. It
was really an awesome tribute, and the Oriol bird came
by to the suite and my nephew got to take
pictures with him and it was his first game ever,
so it.
Speaker 3 (02:15):
Was a really fun time.
Speaker 2 (02:17):
As I mentioned to you on the previous segment of
the cycle this week, I did not really watch much
baseball the last week because I was traveling for this
family stuff. The only baseball I really watched were the
two games at Camden Yards that I attended while I
was in Baltimore. So hopefully I'm coming into this episode
with having done enough research to really catch up and
(02:38):
give some quality advice here. But I want to throw
that out there just in case it comes through with
oh wow, you didn't see this happened to this guy?
Speaker 3 (02:45):
How did you miss that?
Speaker 2 (02:47):
It's because I didn't, you know, really watch for a
few days because of the stuff I had going on.
But thank you to you as always for filling in
in the host chair.
Speaker 3 (02:53):
When I was gone.
Speaker 2 (02:54):
And as I mentioned in the last segment, Thank you
to Kelly for stepping in as well and talks so
fantasy baseball. I know you guys gave everybody a lot
to talk about because you had very long episodes with
me not here to real us in. Let's dive in
after that very long intro to our buys and cells
and because I just talked for a lot, I will
let you go first.
Speaker 3 (03:14):
Here, who's your favorite by low this week?
Speaker 4 (03:16):
My favorite bilot? First, I'm going to give my a
hard cell here, a cell high. Is your nephew's first
game being in a box? Like, how do you go
from that?
Speaker 5 (03:26):
He's going to like I.
Speaker 3 (03:26):
Actually said that.
Speaker 2 (03:27):
I was like, we're setting the bar way too high
for his first game. Now we said it quite low.
For the actual game itself, there was a long rain delay.
It was gross out and the Orioles got shut out.
So it can only go up from there for that perspective,
but pretty brutal. The next time he goes and we're
sitting like directly in the sun and it's ry nosebleed section,
(03:50):
we're sweating through our.
Speaker 3 (03:51):
Jerseys, that'll be a different experience for rohim. He had this.
Speaker 2 (03:55):
He is not even five years old. He had a
jumbo hot dog, two full boxes, a popcorn, and a
cup gig.
Speaker 3 (04:01):
I couldn't believe he alled it all down.
Speaker 4 (04:03):
Yeah, that sounds like my two year old daughter. We
have to stop her from eating or she will eat
until she explodes. My favorite BILO of the week is
Brian Reynolds, who I wrote up in our article this
week and then I'm going to pull up here and
not you know, read it verbatim. But his numbers are
a little bit down. He's batting just two twenty four
when I wrote this, including a one sixty seven average
(04:27):
through the first week of May. So like numbers are down,
but also like been even worse recently. Counting SATs remained solid.
But I just think, like a lot of the other
expected numbers are just like what he always does.
Speaker 5 (04:42):
I think. I just think there's kind of like some
bad luck here.
Speaker 4 (04:45):
And I think that, especially because of the more recent success,
that a fantasy manager out there is going to be
looking to move on from him, or could be more
open to moving on from him, especially like you know,
a lot I know a lot of in a lot
of my leagues, batting average is kind of like down.
And when I look at a lot of the expected
numbers his three fifty nine x WEOBA and like wOBA
(05:09):
is what measures a quality of contract, quality of contact,
and it's kind of like my preferred metric for looking
at like you know, how real is this? His ex
WELBA is three fifty nine against two eighty seven for
his WILBA. It's one of the biggest differences across baseball
between WILBA and expected WOLBA.
Speaker 5 (05:26):
And the same thing is true for his slugging percentage.
Speaker 4 (05:28):
His actual slugging is three sixty one, he's expected is
five thirty three, so way higher. And expected batting average
same thing as actual batting average two twenty four. Expected
batting average two sixty eight, So all of his expected numbers,
you know, they're pointing to, as I like to say,
positive aggression that we're going to say, and I'm looking
to require him because I think you're going to get
a high floor player and like solid production pretty much.
Speaker 5 (05:51):
On pace for what he always does. And uh, do
you want me.
Speaker 4 (05:55):
To toss it back to you there or do you
want to hear some of the names I'm looking to
to see if I can.
Speaker 2 (06:00):
Well, I want to quickly just ask because a lot
of the contact stuff. I think you're spot on, and
I've all like, Brian Reynolds has been a favorite of
mine for a while. He was actually the first person
with my friends not on the show that I started
the bit of the is this person the best hitter
in baseball? Like, like, Brian Reynolds has been good for
a number of years, and like, you know, like I
forget if you mentioned this or not, but his barrel
(06:22):
rate is the highest of his career right now. The
strikeout rate is also the highest. It's twenty two and
a half percent last year. This year is twenty eight
point one percent, coupled with the lowest walk rate of
his career. To what degree is that like concerning to you? Like,
if you think the contact is still very legitimate, how
much are you worried about the fact that he is
(06:42):
not making contact as often?
Speaker 4 (06:44):
I mean, I'm not not concerned. It's still like a
relatively small sample size. Obviously, you don't want to see
it trending in that direction. The walk rate is slightly lower,
you know, seven point eight percent versus eight point two
you know year before. That's not a huge number. But
the strikeout rate is obviously, like almost six percent higher,
So you don't want to see that. I just think
it's a player going through a cold stretch that you know,
(07:07):
like we always say with like evaluating these players in
April early May. If he had this stretch in July,
no one even notices it. But because at the beginning
of the year and a lot of other stuff is
you know, kind of like magnified at that time. When
I looked at his actual like plate discipline numbers, I
didn't see a whole lot that was concerning. One thing
(07:30):
that was interesting is that his out of zone swing
percentage is actually down, like fairly significantly. So that's interesting
that if he's not swinging at pitches out of the
zone but still striking out more in the zone swing
percentage is pretty similar, down like a little bit, and
his but his out of the zone contact numbers are
way down, so he's kind of swinging at fewer pitches
(07:54):
in and out of the zone. But then also the
pitches out of the zone that he's swinging at, he's
he's not hitting them. Fifty two point two percent last
year this year is forty one point seven percent, so
it's down significantly. And that's really the only number that's
down really significantly in a bad way. But I guess
if you want a number to be down, you know,
just stop swinging the pitches out of the zone. Maybe
(08:15):
that'll maybe that do't improve things.
Speaker 3 (08:18):
Who you got for your you know players you're considering
him against.
Speaker 5 (08:22):
Let's see.
Speaker 4 (08:24):
So I wrote in the article that I'm gonna I
always do a picture for hitter for these experiments, so
or at least most of them. So I I tried
to use our trade value chart to line up pictures
of similar value that I think I either would trade
for Brian Reynolds also, but also think I could potentially
(08:44):
trade for Brian Reynolds. So I'll pose them to you.
Would you rather Bailey Obert or Brian Reynolds?
Speaker 2 (08:54):
I think Reynolds. I think that's a really good one,
though I think Reynolds, so.
Speaker 4 (08:58):
Yeah, I included Bailey ober last week is too as
well too. I think I'm just kind of like selling
selling High'm Bailey over across the board.
Speaker 3 (09:04):
I think I think that's a trade you could get done.
Speaker 2 (09:06):
I would prefer the rental side if you really needed pitching,
I could justify.
Speaker 3 (09:09):
I prefer in the overside. I think that's a good one.
Speaker 5 (09:11):
About sunny Gray.
Speaker 2 (09:14):
I think I prefer Gray, but Brian Wu, I prefer
I prefer Brian.
Speaker 5 (09:23):
Brian right, both spelled with the y too.
Speaker 4 (09:27):
Yeah, whenever I say Brian will I I just immediately
go to like the Mighty Ducks, like woo woo woo,
Kenny Woo. It's hard not to say woo woo woo. Brian,
have you not seen mighty ducks? Are you looking at
me like you've not seen money?
Speaker 5 (09:39):
Are you kidding me?
Speaker 2 (09:41):
I wasn't gonna say it out loud. We could have
just moved fastest and people don't. Now they're gonna yell
at me in the comments I have not seen Mighty Ducks.
Speaker 5 (09:46):
Oh my god, that's the second one too.
Speaker 4 (09:48):
It's it's D two, The Mighty Ducks the best one.
Speaker 2 (09:51):
I really like sports and I really like movies. I
don't see a lot of sports movies. I tend to
prefer like my sports or sports in my MOVI. These
are movies I don't do. There are some like I
really have always liked Rudy. I actually have a signed
he can't see it. I have a signed poster from
Sean Aston.
Speaker 3 (10:07):
For Rudy over here.
Speaker 2 (10:09):
So like there are I'm not saying it's my all
time favorite movie, but like, there are sports movies I like,
but a lot of them I just kind of missed.
Speaker 4 (10:16):
Man, you gotta put Mighty Ducks on your list. That
one's actually from the second Mighty Ducks movie went to
the arguably the better Mighty Ducks.
Speaker 3 (10:24):
But I will say I do love I do love him.
Parks and Rec.
Speaker 2 (10:28):
When it's uh They're doing the Model un episode and
Chris Pratt's character Andy is like getting assigned whatever country
and it's like, all right, Andy, do you want to be?
I think it's Iceland and he goes, the bad guys
from Mighty Ducks too, no thank you, And he goes, okay, well,
how about some other country?
Speaker 6 (10:45):
I forgot?
Speaker 2 (10:45):
It was the bad guys from Karate Kid too, even worse,
and he goes, how about Germany.
Speaker 3 (10:51):
They've never been the bad guys. That's pretty good, Parks
and Rec. I will get I will get those references
for sure.
Speaker 4 (10:57):
I always when I was younger, and we'll get back
to baseball on a second, But when I was younger,
I used to always use a fantasy team name that
was the name of the Mighty Ducks before they became
the Mighty Ducks of just District five, like they didn't
have a team name that was always take My fantasy
team name is District five.
Speaker 2 (11:12):
What would you say is your most used fantasy team name?
It could be football or baseball that you've used in
your life.
Speaker 4 (11:19):
Most used would be it's been I don't know if
you would consider it most used, but it's been the
name of one of my teams for like ten years.
And it's have you let me see Have you seen
pulp fiction?
Speaker 2 (11:31):
Yes, I've seen. I loved I love Tarantino movies. I
I yeah, so the whole Royale with Cheese.
Speaker 5 (11:40):
Scene.
Speaker 4 (11:40):
So my team name in that baseball league is the
Royals with cheese. The Royales with cheese.
Speaker 3 (11:45):
Okay, I forget Yeah.
Speaker 2 (11:46):
My two one of for baseball it's Worms above Replacement,
just because I enjoy the analytics and.
Speaker 3 (11:55):
I thought that was a good one.
Speaker 2 (11:56):
And then the other one is if you ever played
like backyard baseball or whatever, it's the humongous melonheads. I
have been many times from UH from the Backyard Sports series.
Speaker 3 (12:04):
All right, that's enough of a detour. Let's get back
to UH.
Speaker 4 (12:06):
I'm in another league with someone who has that exact
same teammate, the Mungkus mellonheads.
Speaker 2 (12:11):
Yeah, I was gonna say, I'd be funny if there
if somebody else said worms abuffrom Placeman.
Speaker 4 (12:16):
Now I also use Mayor League Baseball for mine sometimes
that's cool. Yeah, Okay, what about Robbie Raye back to
back to business.
Speaker 3 (12:24):
I probably I'd probably prefer Reynolds.
Speaker 5 (12:26):
Mackenzie, Gore Gore, Ryan Peppiot.
Speaker 2 (12:34):
I'll say Reynolds because I really am buying on him
as as a bilo.
Speaker 5 (12:38):
Uh.
Speaker 4 (12:38):
Nathan Eovaldi, I forget when I wrote up Nathan Yavaldi
as a cell high?
Speaker 5 (12:42):
Was that last week? Maybe?
Speaker 4 (12:43):
But Nathaniovaldi? Why have is a cell high?
Speaker 2 (12:47):
I think I prefer Evaldi, But I if you ask
me again in an hour, I might feel differently.
Speaker 4 (12:54):
I think I talked about Ivaldi. I can these all
episodes all run together. I talked about him last week.
I think as a South High. And it's because there's
some pretty concerning things in his profile, like velocity is
like way down, and he's like ditching his fastball to
me makes it seem like he knows his velocities down.
That's concerning to me.
Speaker 3 (13:11):
I could go either way.
Speaker 2 (13:13):
My gut reaction is Vivaldi, But like I said, I
might feel differently in an hour.
Speaker 5 (13:17):
Yeah, the last one. That's that's all I got, all right, So.
Speaker 2 (13:22):
My favorite BUYE and I didn't really have a good
by low this week that I felt like, so I
went with a bye high. It's Michael Garcia. I think
he's like, I think it's a very legitimate step forward
with him as a hitter. Like his batting average is
almost one hundred points higher than it was last year,
but his expecting batty, his expected batting average is even
higher than his actual batting averages. He's currently hitting three
(13:44):
twenty he's expected his three twenty eight, which is ninety
eighth percentile. His average exsit velocity is over ninety three
miles per hour. He's ninety second percentile.
Speaker 3 (13:53):
There.
Speaker 2 (13:54):
That was really, you know, intriguing to me. This is
the guy who hit seven home runs last season, four
home runs the year before. Over five hundred played appearances
in both of those years, so full seasons, a total
of eleven home runs across two seasons. He's already got
four home runs this year. Again, the average is taking
a huge step forward. We know the Steelers are gonna
be He's gonna get thirty stilen bases, assuming he says healthy.
That is, you know, he's still on pace for that
(14:16):
that nothing has changed there. He's only twenty five years old. Like,
I think it's very possible he's taking a step forward,
especially when the quality of contact looks so much better
and it has the recent seasons. He's also depending on
your formatter. Actually, I'm not sure if it's format depending,
but at least in the game the leagues, I'm playing
in eligible in multiple positions, second base, third base, outfield,
Like this is a very helpful. I mean, especially a
(14:37):
third base really, given how tricky the corners have been
for a lot of people this year. But I just
think this is a legitimate step Forward's the lowest strike
out rate of his career thirteen point nine percent, the
highest walk rate of his career ten point four percent.
Those are fairly significant changes from what it was last year.
And yeah, I just think nothing in this is telling
(14:57):
me that this is a regression candidate. And I want
to be in on this. I'm willing to give up
players of value to get Garcia on my team because
I think this is very legitimate. I think he's going
to be like, again, you know, you're getting the thirty
stolen bases. I think you're gonna get close to a
three hundred average, maybe even higher if he, you know,
kind of maintains a hot streak. And I don't know
(15:19):
what the home runs will end at, but I certainly
think it'll be double digits and maybe.
Speaker 3 (15:25):
Even getting, you know, close to twenty.
Speaker 2 (15:27):
I don't know that I'm gonna predict that he gets
over twenty, but if he sits there with I don't know,
like sixteen or seventeen homers and thirty five stolen bases
and a near three hundred average, you're gonna be really
happy you have you have MIKEL.
Speaker 3 (15:38):
Garcia on your team.
Speaker 4 (15:40):
Yeah, it's it's I've always kind of like put my
nose up at MIKEL.
Speaker 5 (15:43):
Garcia.
Speaker 4 (15:44):
So I knew he was doing very well this year
because I've seen his name everywhere. But I haven't really
like dug into thet the names or dug into the
numbers because I've always just kind of like me, like,
he's Michael Garcia and I canna see a whole lot.
So it's interesting to see the power up contends. It's
rejection seem to have him with about like seven more,
which will put him at eleven, so double digits like
you're expecting.
Speaker 5 (16:05):
It's pretty rare.
Speaker 4 (16:05):
You see a guy badding three twenty three with an
expected average that's higher than three twenty three, So that's
pretty interesting. It points to it being legit, Like you're saying,
I wonder if the you know, if the power is
going to stay. But it's also like, if you're showing
this kind of power in April, you know, when it's
like traditionally colder around the country, maybe you see a
little bit more power in July and August. So not
(16:29):
a name I was really considering, certainly not a by
low I would say.
Speaker 3 (16:34):
I put it. I say the bye high, which we are.
Speaker 4 (16:37):
Allowed cheating once again. Yeah, I'm intrigued. Like I said,
someone I wasn't really considering until you wrote him up.
But now that I look at it, I can kind
of see where you're coming from.
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(17:11):
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Speaker 2 (17:19):
He's pulling the ball more, you know, particularly in the air,
which you know that kind of makes sense in terms
of increased power. It's interesting looking at how he's doing
against certain pitches. Last year he was worse against fastballs,
which is what he saw most often, of course, batting
two fifteen. This year he's second best against fastballs, batting
(17:40):
three twenty eight, so that's been a real turnaround for him.
He's also better against breaking balls than he was last year,
and he's worse against auspeedan last year. Is like everything
is flipped from what he was doing last year very
well to what he's doing this year very well. But again,
I just I want to listen because I think it'll
be very easy to look at what he'd done in
previous seasons and say, oh, it's a nice hot streak.
Speaker 3 (18:02):
Should I be selling high on him? I'm saying no.
Speaker 2 (18:05):
Take the other side by high on him where you
where you're able to, because I think he's going to
be a very very valuable fantasy asset the rest of
the way.
Speaker 3 (18:14):
Right, Who is your favorite cell high?
Speaker 4 (18:16):
My favorite cell high that I wrote up this week
is Paul Goldschmidt, who, at age thirty seven, looks like
a player he's never been in his entire life. It
looks just like a completely different player. He's batting three
forty one, which I don't think is sustainable. Granted expect
the batting average two ninety three, so still very very
good babbit. When I wrote it up it was four
(18:38):
to fifteen. It is down down to four or four,
but also unsustainable, not going to be there.
Speaker 5 (18:42):
And then he's.
Speaker 4 (18:44):
Really really st you know, cut down on his strikeouts.
In a previous segment, we were talking about a player who,
you know, we had seen them cut down on their
strikeout rate without really you know, sacrificing anything else. We
are seeing Paul Goltimate sacrifice other things by cutting down
(19:05):
on his strikeouts. His hard hit rate is twenty three
point two percent. Last season, which is not even a
great season for him, is forty percent, and so that's
a drastic change, and that points to a complete change
and approach. I think it's a player who just realizes,
like I'm thirty seven, I can't you know, if I
want to stick around and play baseball, I'm gonna have
to be a different player. And so I think he's
really cut down on his swing. He's focusing on making contact.
(19:27):
He's walking the same amount but not striking out as much,
but making weaker contact.
Speaker 5 (19:32):
And he only has three home runs. He also has
two solent bases.
Speaker 4 (19:37):
I think he's to sell high because of the early numbers,
because the batting average is fantastic, only three home runs.
But I think what you're gonna see if you start
talking about like trading him. I think other fantasy managers
are going to look at him and say, all right,
like really good average, like not a ton of power yet,
but like this is Paul Golchiman, Like the power is
going to be there. I'm going to get twenty paus
home runs. I don't think you are. I don't think
(19:57):
those home runs are coming back. It's kind of the
opposite mikeel Garcia, where you know, four home runs, like, hey,
it was pretty good for mikel Garcia. Paul Goltrans has
three and despite being in that teen tiny ballpark, I
don't think we're going to see.
Speaker 5 (20:10):
Twenty home runs for him anymore, you know.
Speaker 4 (20:12):
I think he might end up with like a dozen
or in the teens, or maybe even less than that,
depending on how it goes in the summer. And so
I think now is the peak time to trade him
because he has a really high average. I think people
are still going to project out that power, and so
if you sell him now, I think you can get
your best return.
Speaker 3 (20:28):
I think this is a great call. Let me ask
you this.
Speaker 2 (20:30):
If he finishes let's say fourteen home runs and seven
stolen bases an average I don't know, two ninety, Let's say,
where does that fall for you amongst the type of
first basemen you'd like to have the rest of the way,
because it is not a particularly I mean, it's gotten
stronger this season with you know, like you know, Nick
(20:51):
Kurtz having his really hot start and then getting called
up and like got you know, somebody like Soda Show
who's maybe cooled off a bit, but like hot start.
So the position looks stronger than maybe it did at
the beginning of April. But still there's you know, it's
a it's a not very sturdy position.
Speaker 3 (21:06):
I think.
Speaker 2 (21:06):
So what I just described, if that is the player
Paul goldschmid ad, how likely are you to want a
player like that starting for you in let's say your
corner infield spot.
Speaker 5 (21:15):
I mean, the average is what helps.
Speaker 4 (21:18):
It also helps that he has been betting lead off
in a good Yankees lineup, or it looks like he's
moved to clean up more recently. But he had been
betting lead off for a while, but now I guess
he's betting clean up. Maybe it's just lead off against lefties.
Now it looks like the last start against a lefty
was winning.
Speaker 5 (21:34):
Batted leadoff.
Speaker 4 (21:35):
But either way, lead off against for the Yankees or
clean up for the Yankees both good spots to be.
But uh, I just feel like maybe it's me just
being like an old old man. But like I see
like first base and I want more power. I want
more power out of that spot. Like if I wanted
that production, I would have just drafted Louis.
Speaker 3 (21:54):
Urryt's are you older than Paul gold Schmidt?
Speaker 5 (21:57):
I am older than Paul Goldchmith.
Speaker 3 (22:00):
Wow, how does that feel? We're talking about this guy
like he's he's done?
Speaker 5 (22:04):
I know.
Speaker 4 (22:05):
I mean, I'm very close to the same age as
Paul Golchmate and I can't play Major League baseball although
you know we had the same shoulder surgery. I just
threw a ball yesterday for the first time since before
my surgery.
Speaker 5 (22:16):
Rats.
Speaker 3 (22:17):
Yeah, yeah that PT.
Speaker 2 (22:19):
I was at PT yesterday and they were talking about
we're we're very close to the point in the recovery
where I'm allowed to start doing strength stuff as opposed
to basically just like assisted stretching. So we'll we'll see
how that goes.
Speaker 3 (22:34):
This is I just want to be out there, like
playing softball. Hitt and Dinger is like I hate I
hate being on the shelf.
Speaker 4 (22:39):
Yeah yeah, even being around the house with an arm
that barely works, like it's a card to lift my kids.
Speaker 5 (22:45):
So I'm looking forward to getting my strength pas.
Speaker 2 (22:47):
I really struggle to walk my dog because he's very
reactive to their dogs now like shockingly, you know, after
well cause all this, but like it is very hard
to only have.
Speaker 3 (22:56):
One arm holding onto him, I will say.
Speaker 2 (22:58):
And I can't even imagine with like kids who are
like making their own demands and you know, having to
take care of them. So uh yeah, I don't. I
don't envy up really either of us recovering from short surgery.
Speaker 5 (23:10):
It sucks. Do you want to hear the names?
Speaker 4 (23:11):
I would, yeah, aim to swap for or send him for,
Send Paul Golchman away to receive these pitchers in return.
Speaker 5 (23:19):
Yeah, Freddie peralta.
Speaker 3 (23:22):
Peralta.
Speaker 4 (23:24):
Do you think you can make that trade though? Do
you think golt Schmid would get your par aalta? Or
is that aiming too high?
Speaker 5 (23:28):
I aimed kind of high on some of these.
Speaker 2 (23:31):
I think it might be aiming too high, but I
don't think it's like a disrespectful thing if that person
has a real need at first base and or if
you yeah, if they have a real need at first
base and depth of pitching, I don't think it's a
disrespectful offer. I think it might be aiming too high
and it might just get quickly rejected. But I don't
think it's like, seriously, dude, like you're insulted. I don't
(23:53):
think it's that. That's kind of the in which case
I think it's worth sending. Like you never know, so
they might they might, really they might look it and say,
Paul gold Schimith is hitting three forty yeah, I'll take
sign me up.
Speaker 3 (24:03):
So yeah, it's worth standing.
Speaker 4 (24:05):
Yeah, And that's that's that's a good point where like
depth of pitching and need this position. That's that's the
assumption I'm making when I when I put these offers together,
It's like I see a lot of trade offers like
would you trade this picture for this picture?
Speaker 5 (24:16):
And I'm like, like, I don't. I don't. That's not
really how I trade, I think.
Speaker 3 (24:20):
And I've said this before.
Speaker 2 (24:22):
It might have been on the Football Show, it might
not have been on this show, but I think too
many people are like their value pilled. All people care
about is what is the value this play in?
Speaker 5 (24:34):
The value?
Speaker 2 (24:35):
Am I winning the trade as opposed to sometimes losing
a trade in strictly talking about value makes your team better,
and the point is winning. Like the example I like
to say is like, you know, if a team is
getting and this is think of professional teams, not fantasy teams,
but if a team is getting two hundred million dollars
(24:56):
of value of their players and they spent three hundred
million to get it, But then your team is getting
one hundred and fifty million value of players and you
spent one hundred million to get it. That second team
is not doing a better job just because they're actually
getting more bang for their buck. The other team is
still fifty million in value better in terms of their players,
Like make don't be worried too much about that within reason,
(25:18):
of course, Like just because you might need a first
baseman if you have a couple extra outfielders, you know,
don't trade air and Judge for Paul Goldschmith, right, Like,
obviously we have to be reasonable about this to a degree.
But in general, if you have eight really good starting pitchers,
because you hit on a couple guys late, you picked
up Max Meyer, you're feeling great, and you have nobody
(25:41):
at first base, you are starting like somebody terrible because
your guy got hurt or whatever it is, be willing
to move one of those guys, even if it's a
little worse on a trade value chart. And it's a
very helpful tool for a baseline here, but I just
feel really passionate about that. It really drives me nuts
when I come up with it. I think, as a
is a trade offer where I'm not caring about value.
(26:03):
I'm caring about are we making both of our teams
better here? And people say oh well, no, this guy
is ranked higher, so that's an auto reject. I'm like,
but you're not starting him and you never will, right like.
So that would just be my plea to everybody when
making trades and when thinking about accepting trades. You know,
offers people make to you, what does it make your
team better?
Speaker 5 (26:22):
Yes?
Speaker 2 (26:22):
Or no? And maybe there's different considerations in a dynasty format,
But does it make your team better?
Speaker 3 (26:27):
Yes or no? If it's yes, don't overthink value.
Speaker 5 (26:31):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (26:32):
And in this exact scenario, I traded Freddi Perulta for
Tyler Suderstrom recently because I had extra pitching and I
really really really needed hitting, especially power, And so in
that situation, I knew and I offered the trade.
Speaker 5 (26:43):
I knew I was.
Speaker 4 (26:44):
Offering more than what Tylers Strodan is probably worth. But
I needed the bat more than I needed Freddy Prolt.
Speaker 2 (26:50):
And I think in baseball too, And this is a
key difference in in baseball and football. I think I
think in football, at least in my experience with leagues,
if I, let's say, I and like, you know what,
I need to rebuild, and I don't want to have
this running back on my team, I think you can
send out a kind of message to the league and say,
you know, this guy's on the block, give me your
(27:10):
best offer, and you will get some responses. In baseball,
I don't Again, in my experience, I haven't seen it
necessarily work as well like that. I think you need
to be actually actively making offers and looking around and
trying to identify which teams could use the first basement,
because I don't think a lot of people like I
don't think people are as likely to say, like to
do the effort for you. I would say, so if
(27:32):
you go through and find somebody and make the offer,
don't feel like, oh man, if I put him on
the block, you know you're not lowering your ceiling by
not putting it out to everybody and let the offers
come rolling in. I don't think it works that way
in baseball.
Speaker 5 (27:44):
We really struck a nerve there with you, didn't we Well,
I just you know.
Speaker 2 (27:49):
I am passionate about it, and it was a it's
a topic that I don't often, you know, get a
chance to take sixty seconds and go in on.
Speaker 3 (27:57):
So you know, I was happy for the kind of
tiss to mention.
Speaker 2 (28:01):
That it's It's not like It's a frustration of mine
when people are like, I'm like, I'm like, this makes
both of our teams better, and they agree, but oh,
I'm not winning. The people care so much about winning
the trade and not enough about winning their league.
Speaker 5 (28:16):
You should put that on a shirt or something.
Speaker 2 (28:19):
Yeah, well, it's I also feel that way about Michael Lias,
so maybe that's extra White strikes a nerve with me.
Speaker 5 (28:25):
What about George Kirby.
Speaker 2 (28:29):
I'd rather have Kirby, but I I mean, given obviously,
you know, the injury stuff to start the year, I
think that's a more maybe doable trade. Maybe, but I'd
rather have Kirby and that swing for you upside the
rest of the way. Ryan, I'd probably go Ryan's.
Speaker 3 (28:47):
Right, Yeah, Yeah, I would go Ryan. Not probably, I
would go Ryan.
Speaker 4 (28:49):
I think that might be another one where I'm aiming
a little high. I think this one's realistic, though. What
about Zach Allen.
Speaker 2 (28:57):
I think if I had a real need at first base,
I might take Goldman on that one, But in a vacuum,
I'd rather have Gallon.
Speaker 5 (29:03):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (29:03):
I think his start has been inconsistent enough with some
concerning things that it's a realistic trade. Kevin Gosman.
Speaker 3 (29:11):
I would rather have Gossman. I know it's been it's
been up or down.
Speaker 2 (29:15):
He's had some really nice starts, though, and that's enough
for me to prefer him to somebody that I think
is going to regress a lot.
Speaker 5 (29:22):
And the last one is hey, Sucil LIZARDO, Oh.
Speaker 3 (29:28):
What do you think about this one?
Speaker 5 (29:30):
I'm a big hay Suscil Zardo guy, so.
Speaker 6 (29:32):
I know you are.
Speaker 3 (29:33):
So I'm wondering if you think this is like wildly blopsided.
Speaker 4 (29:36):
No, I don't think it's wildly lopsided. I know I
overvalue Cucilszardo because I like him a lot. I think
this is a very realistic trade, especially if you're not
necessarily buying the start he set.
Speaker 3 (29:44):
My gut reaction is gold Schmidt. But I know you
are a Lozardo guy.
Speaker 5 (29:50):
I think it's a fair a fair deal though. I
think it's pretty close.
Speaker 2 (29:52):
Yeah, right, I'll get to my cell high because we
went very long on yours haave baias, which, just in
case anybody's not paying attention, has been like on an
absolute heater as of late, I had it pulled up
and then I refreshed my page to now I'm trying
to pull it up a Yeah, since since April twenty sixth,
he's batting four twenty four. His OPS is over twelve hundred.
(30:15):
He has three home runs in that timeframe. And you
can go back further, you know, not just this kind
of recent hot streak, but he's batting three forty five
if you go back to April sixteenth, if you go
back to like even the sixth, so like, basically after
the first week of the season, he's batting three twenty
nine in ops almost nine hundred.
Speaker 5 (30:34):
Like.
Speaker 3 (30:34):
He has been good in terms of the actual statue.
Speaker 2 (30:38):
Looking at particularly the batting average coming off of a
year last year where he hit one eighty four, you know,
the year before two twenty two. His stack gass plate
page is as blue as it gets. I don't think
this is a new and improved haave Baiaz. His chase
rate is third percentile, it's over forty percent.
Speaker 3 (30:53):
The strikeout rate.
Speaker 2 (30:54):
Isn't that much lower than it has been, you know,
the last few years. It's basically right in line with
the last few years. So it's not like I think
he's doing anything different in terms of his approach. The
walk rate is actually lower. It it's a career low
for him. It's just all all the contact data is
basically the same. Like his expected wOBA last year to
sixty four. This year it's two eighty eight. His wOBA
(31:18):
last year was two twenty four. This year it's three
sixty four. So last year was a little low. This
year it's way high relative to the expected data. And
that's like fairly true across the board for most of
his stats. Like his expected batting average is two forty,
it's current average on the season is three thirteen.
Speaker 3 (31:36):
Again, playing third base, a position that people might have
a need.
Speaker 2 (31:40):
I'm not this is not one of those cell highs
where you're gonna get like multiple studs in return, right,
But I think you could. If somebody has a need,
you can point to this hot start say this is
a new and improved hobby Bias at age thirty two,
and try and sell them. And quite frankly, I would
sell him for anything you can get a value. I
(32:01):
wouldn't hold out for the highest offer. I wouldn't say
something for peanuts, but anything you can get for, you know,
any reasonable offer. I think Bias is an easy sell.
Speaker 5 (32:10):
I would sell him for peanuts. I would sell him
for any offer that came through the door.
Speaker 2 (32:14):
I mean, if it was literally like a nothing nothing offer, Well,
here's what I would say, whatever you're getting back you're
weighing against would I'd rather have this or maybe ride
another week and a half of this hot streak and
then be done with him anyway, Like there are sub
offers that I would rather just say, like, listen, let
(32:36):
me see if I can get another week or two
out of him. But yes, I would take a load number.
But do you do you not think he's sellable? I mean,
I I think I think there are leagues, maybe not
with hardcore guys, but I think there are leagues where
you can sell hobby bias. And and when I say hi, hi,
does it necessarily mean again like you're getting, you know,
a king's ransom? It just means high relative to his value.
(33:00):
And I think this is a peak of his value,
and I would be selling. Is that maybe the better
way to phrase it.
Speaker 4 (33:04):
Yeah, I don't think you're gonna get a lot for him.
I think you can trade him, especially you know, with
the with the average. But you know, if any any
and if if anyone looks under the hood of what
have your bias is going to do or has been doing,
and then you're not going to be able to sell him.
The hard contact alone is like plummeted for you know,
he still like strikes out a good amount of time.
(33:25):
It doesn't really walk. I tried pulling up the trade
value chart to see where he was, and he didn't
even make the chart. He didn't qualify for the chart.
But uh, I think you like I'm looking at like
the bottom of like the pictures. Maybe you can get
like a Tobias Myers for him, maybe a Porter Hoigh. Yeah,
I we're gonna speculate on that closing situation.
Speaker 2 (33:45):
I want to because I know sometimes people in the
comments giving me a hard time but like oh that's
not really a bye low or whatever. Again it I
want to really emphasize, like I'm saying, sell high relative
to the value of Bias. So get something while you can't,
because you'll probably be dropping him soon. He's right, and
third base is a position where people have need big time.
Speaker 5 (34:06):
Here's an interesting one for you.
Speaker 4 (34:08):
Would you trade Hoper Bias for I mean, I technically
this is like for the rights to the player, but
would you trade it for Grayson Marianz for the off
chance that he comes back.
Speaker 2 (34:22):
That I really liked that question because I've been pretty
pessimistic on his timeline for returning.
Speaker 3 (34:31):
Yes, I would. I would trade it for.
Speaker 5 (34:35):
That suggestion.
Speaker 3 (34:37):
I really like that suggestion.
Speaker 2 (34:38):
Again, I think there's like a non zero chance Grayson
doesn't pitch this year.
Speaker 3 (34:43):
That's why you're talking right now for him. Yeah, I
really like that one. That's a good suggestion.
Speaker 6 (34:50):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (34:50):
So again, don't come after me in the comments.
Speaker 2 (34:51):
I'm not saying bias is great and that you're gonna
get You're gonna swindle somebody out of some elite player
for him. This is really just to highlight the point that, like,
for whatever good you think he's doing this year, trade him.
Speaker 3 (35:04):
It's not legitimate.
Speaker 2 (35:07):
And like I said, you're what you're weighing it against
is do I want to ride this hot streak another?
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Speaker 3 (35:40):
Mayor. We went very long on.
Speaker 2 (35:41):
The buys and sells this week, so let's speed through
a little faster on the waivers side. I'll go first
here and I'll make it very quick. I put down
Trent Grisham, who we already talked about in our Rounding
the Basis segment. If you miss out on YouTube or
on audio, please go listen to that segment as well.
The numbers are just too good for him to be
roster where he's at. I'll mention it again because I
mentioned it in the last segment. Fifty roster on CBS,
(36:04):
under thirty percent on ESPN and Yahoo. I'm not saying
he is the best hitter.
Speaker 3 (36:08):
In baseball, but those need to be roster higher.
Speaker 2 (36:11):
Considering his ten home runs an average near three hundred,
the stackcast data is really impressive. He's the anti hobby
buyas in that regard. Those numbers are just two lop,
so go pick him up wherever he's available.
Speaker 5 (36:23):
Yeah, I'm down with it.
Speaker 4 (36:26):
We don't know if this hot street is gonna last forever,
but it's hot right it's hot right now, and he's
playing in a good lineup in the best ballpark for
a lefty hitter, so you know, ride him always hot.
The name I'm going with is TJ. Friedel player I've
always liked, a player I was really high on going
into last season, but he dealt with a bunch of
injuries and missed a bunch of the year. But when
he's healthy and when he's on, he's going to give
(36:47):
you double juit to home runs, twenty plus dolen bases.
And right now he's batting two seventy three. He just
hit two home runs the other night, so it's up
to three home runs. So if you're weekly waivers and
he isn't rostered yet, he's going to be probably a
popular waiver wire target this week. Eight stolen bases, he's
sitting at the top of that lineup. Again, a player
in a good ballpark, and he's the kind of player
who if he stays healthy, you're going to get fifteen
(37:10):
home runs maybe more, and twenty plus maybe twenty five
plus stolen bases and hopefully with like a two sixty
two seventy five average, And that's a really valuable player
who is available on waivers right now. And he's someone
that sometimes we talk about like this is a short
term pick up, like see what's going to happen. He's
a player who if he stays healthy, I think we
(37:32):
you know, you can have a really good year. If
you look at last year he doubled a bunch of injuries.
But just two years ago in twenty twenty three, one
hundred and thirty eight games, eighteen home runs, twenty seven
stolen bases in a bad two seventy nine, Like, that's
an awesome season and it's not even a false season
from him. And I included one bonus. It sounds like
Austin Hayes is going to come back. So if you
know he was really hot and was picked up everywhere
if he got dropped when he got hurt, it sounds
(37:53):
like he could be back as soon as Friday without.
Speaker 5 (37:55):
A rehab assignment. So also pick up Austin Hayes on
the same team.
Speaker 2 (37:59):
Yeah, I can also be quick on the pitcher because
the guy I picked hasn't pitched yet. Eurie Perez, I
just I kind of bring him up to say don't
be late picking him up once rehab starts are done.
In like a month, he has started the rehab again. Obviously,
this was, you know, an elite, elite, elite pitching prospect
before the injury prior to last season. I just kind
(38:20):
of highlight him because there weren't a ton I actually
almost considered the name you put down. There weren't a
ton of names that I really liked. Has been the
case most weeks for our favorite pitcher. But I just
wanted to highlight him as there will be kind of
a rush to grab him at some point when it
gets closer coming back, and especially once he is back.
He's already rostered in some places, but but he's definitely
available in a lot of places.
Speaker 3 (38:42):
Don't be late to the ball.
Speaker 2 (38:43):
Pick him up if you have the room at all,
which I think you probably do, and be willing to
stash him for a couple of weeks, maybe longer than
you would have preferred an ideal scenario, to.
Speaker 3 (38:51):
Make sure that you are taking the swing.
Speaker 2 (38:53):
And maybe he's not good and doesn't go deep enough
into games cleaning back and isn't worth it, but I
think the upside is worth being early rather and laid
on him.
Speaker 4 (39:01):
Yeah, mine is a different kind of waiver target, so
yours is more long term thing. Mine's extremely short term.
I went with Colin Reya. I don't think this is
you know, like right now he has a two point
four through ear Ray. I don't think this is any
kind of Colin ray A breakout that we're about to see.
But there's a very clear reason why he's my waiver
target for this week. He's a two star pitcher who
(39:21):
pitches at home against the Marlins and then at home
against the White Sox. And if you could, you know,
draw up a perfect situation for a two star pitcher,
those are the two matchups you would want. Maybe also
the Rockies on the road, but you know those are true.
Speaker 2 (39:33):
I briefly considered him for my two star pitcher competition,
I will say, because it's kind of a tricky week.
Speaker 3 (39:39):
But yes, I'm fully on board with this.
Speaker 4 (39:42):
Yeah, and that's the main reason. And I'll hit some
deep league targets real quick. To Dane Myers and Jake Myers,
the Myers brothers.
Speaker 5 (39:49):
No idea if they're actually related. Probably not.
Speaker 4 (39:52):
Hayden Wesnski, also a two star pitcher. He gets the
Royals and the Rangers Matthew Libertor, who we talked about
on our first video, Rounding the Bases, So go back,
as Worm said, and watch that one. Same thing for
Ajsmith Shaver. They're two kind of waiver wire targets for me.
And then also Max Kepler, who kind of got off
to a weird start but seems to be doing pretty
(40:13):
solid right now, and especially if you're in like a
deep league with like five outfielders, Max Kepler is definitely
someone you can use right now.
Speaker 3 (40:21):
All right, we'll wrap up there.
Speaker 2 (40:23):
I know we went longer on the trade section the waivers,
but hopefully some good options there for everybody.
Speaker 3 (40:27):
For Mayor, I'm Ryan Warley.
Speaker 2 (40:29):
Thanks everybody for tuning and be sure to check out
Rounding the Bases if you miss it. Be sure to
also keep an eye out for our third video of
the cycle this week or on audio episode as well,
where we talk through some streaming pictures and our two
start picture competition.
Speaker 3 (40:40):
For Mayor, I'm Ryan. Thanks for tuning in. We'll see
you next time.
Speaker 2 (40:43):
Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Baseball podcast.
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