May 30, 2025 • 24 mins
Join Ryan Wormeli (@RyanWarmly) and Kelly Kirby (@thewonkypenguin) for Part Two of this week’s edition of The Cycle!
In this episode, Worm and Kelly highlight their favorite buy low and sell high targets before going through the best pick-ups that you can make off the waiver wire this weekend!
Timestamps: (May be off due to ads)
Intro - 0:00:00
Buy Lows - 0:00:43
Kristian Campbell - 0:01:02
Bryan Reynolds - 0:03:25
Sell Highs - 0:06:12
Jose Altuve - 0:06:14
Trea Turner - 0:09:37
Kyzatrex - 0:12:48
Waiver Wire Central - 0:14:12
Matt Shaw - 0:14:30
Ryan O’Hearn - 0:15:30
Zebby Matthews - 0:20:24
Lance McCullers - 0:21:13
Outro - 0:23:38
Helpful Links:
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:05):
Hello, everybody, Welcome into the cycle, part two of the week.
Speaker 2 (00:08):
I am Ryan.
Speaker 1 (00:08):
Warmley joined as you can see not if you're watching YouTube,
at least not by Mike mahyor, but by Kelly Kirby,
failing it for all three sections this week. As Mayor
is out and about, he is not here to try
to goad me into taking more tequila shots on every
single segment like he did last week, which is which
is makes it easier on Meat to not have to
(00:30):
turn away that peer pressure he was hitting me with,
although it was quite fun to do it in the
first segment last week.
Speaker 2 (00:37):
Kelly, thanks for hopping on for this one. We'll dive
right in here.
Speaker 1 (00:40):
We're gonna talk to some buys and sells. We're also
gonna do some waivers on this segment as well. We
always start with our favorite by lows, and I always say,
like we listed as a by loan and sell High.
Technically it could be a Bye High and a Cello.
It's really just a buy and sell because sometimes it does.
Speaker 2 (00:57):
Fit in those other ways. I think we did.
Speaker 1 (01:00):
We kind of both went with the more standard interpretation
of it. This time, I'll go first with the by Low.
I put Christian Campbell, and then I put parentheses gross
because there's not a whole lot in the profile that
says like, oh, this is somebody who is going to
be regressing to the mean soon, and you need to be,
(01:20):
you know, getting in on him before his numbers catch
up to his expected numbers. I mean, technically his batting
average is lower than expected, but his expected batting average
is still like two thirty four, So it's, you know,
it's not like it's anything great.
Speaker 2 (01:32):
Same with slugging.
Speaker 1 (01:33):
It's like, technically he's below what is expected is, but
he's expected is not high. The reason that I picked
him well was two reasons. One, I really struggled to
come up with a goodbye this week. I just did
not have a lot of options that I liked. It
was it was the section of preparing for the show
that took me the longest, because I just couldn't land
on somebody that I felt really good about recommending. I
(01:54):
did think about Boba Schett, which I talked about a
little in our part one of this week's episode, but
ultimately went away from.
Speaker 2 (02:00):
Him with Campbell.
Speaker 1 (02:02):
The two real reasons that I kind of fell back
to him. One is starting to play a little first base.
I know that's a position that some people need, so
just getting that extra positional versatility, like I am interested
in having that on my roster. But b it's really
just saying top prospects takes some time to adjust, and
I'm gonna believe in the pedigree and believe in his
(02:26):
talent as a top prospect in baseball and believe that
he will figure it out. There is nothing in the
numbers where I'm sitting here saying he's definitely going to
figure it out for this reason. And here's the one
stat why you should be buying a Christian Campbell. This
is strictly he is the type of guy I want
to be buying in a top prospect who got off
(02:49):
to a slow start, who has positional versatility, who's in
a lineup that could be good at some point if
they call up Anthony and get Bregmant healthy and all
that stuff. And he's just the type of guy that
also you can get pretty cheap, so you can't actually
buy low on him, I think, in any redraft format.
Speaker 2 (03:04):
So that's why I picked him.
Speaker 1 (03:06):
I don't have a ton of conviction with it, because,
like I said, it was difficult for me to pick
somebody here, but Campbells where I ended up going. What
do you think about that?
Speaker 3 (03:12):
Yeah, I mean I think you this is this is
the definition of low, right, So if you believe that
this is going to turn around, I'm with you. I
think that it's an okay. Just make sure you absolutely
do not overpay it anyway. You really really want to
keep it low for him?
Speaker 2 (03:28):
Yeah, for sure? Who do you have is year by low?
Speaker 3 (03:31):
I went with I secretly call him like mister boring,
but I was gonna go with mon Soto. We talked
about that a little bit in the in the first episode.
But and again, if you're I mean, if you're in
a league with people who panic, then maybe I feel
like everyone's going to hold him anyway. So I pivoted
to Brian Reynolds. He got off to a real sluggish start,
(03:52):
but he's currently bating into twenty three. He's only got
seven home runs thirty RBIs I mean the Pirates said
or came close to the record for going the most
games in a row without scoring more than four runs.
It was just a mess. His strikeout rate is also
up to twenty six point seven from his career twenty
two point two percent, and his expected batting average isn't
(04:16):
astoundingly better. It's at two sixty three, but that's kind
of in line with what he usually does. But the
thing that I want is his slugging. So he's currently
at three sixty, but his expected slugging is five h two,
so I think that the home runs are coming. His
weighted on bass average is also seventy points below expected,
and I think a lot of it has to do
he has a two seventy eight babbup and his career
(04:39):
mark is three twenty four. So I would be completely
willing to buy at this point that he will revert
back to being mister boring but also mister consistent and
he's not gonna hurt. Like basically, Brian Reynolds, as we
draft in that round where everyone else is like reaching
for like the hot players like rookie Sosaki, and you
just draft him because his floor just like made of concrete.
(05:02):
He's going to sit there and it's not a bad
person to have on your team.
Speaker 1 (05:07):
Listen for that one manager in my other league round
you reach on Roki Sasaki is round one. Yeah, yeah,
Brian Reynolds, I mean the last four seasons home run
totals twenty four, twenty seven, twenty four to twenty four,
just like a metronome of consistency. Do you think he
gets to the mid twenties this year or do you
(05:27):
think the slow start will I mean, like, could he
fall short of twenty this year? What to what degree
do you see that kind of bounce back playing out
over the course of the season in terms of the
power numbers.
Speaker 3 (05:38):
I think he'll get to twenty for sure. I mean
I can see twenty four. I just think it depends
on kind of how fast he bounces back. But he
hit a homer a couple of days ago, and I
think it's coming like it's it's sitting right there. So
I think he'll get to twenty. He might fall a
little short of the twenty.
Speaker 2 (05:55):
Four realistically, even the pace he's on.
Speaker 1 (06:00):
Down it's he's on pace for about twenty like even
with the slow pace, So you know, if he picks
it up, then could even get back to that kind
of twenty four to twenty five range. So I like
to pick Brian Reynolds is one of my favorites every year,
so I'm super on board with this. Let's go to
the cell highs I put a Jose Altuve. He has
(06:21):
finally started to show some signs of life. Some of
the counting stats were okay even prior to this stretch
down for him, like particularly on the batting average, but
it was okay, like he had like six homers and
four steals or something, you know, through mid May. It
wasn't like he was. It was like a literal nothing
but very bad for al Tuove. And then the thing
where we talked about in a couple weeks on the show,
(06:43):
the stack cast that is really really poor. It it's
a lot of very dark blue on his stat cast page.
I mean, his average, even with this hot streak, his
average eggs of velocity is eighty five point three miles
per hour. That's fourth percentile. His sweet spot percentage is
second percentile in baseball, it's under a quarter of the time.
Bat speed is eleventh percentile, hard hit rate tenth, barrel
(07:06):
rate twenty first, expected batting average twenty fourth, like the
expected batting average for Altuova. His batting average is two
sixty seven, his expected numbers two thirty six. Like that's
just so unlike Altuove, even like a year ago, that was,
you know, seventy fifth percentile. The expected batting average this
year is twenty fourth. It's just it's been very, very poor.
(07:27):
So I I think if you have Altov on your roster,
you're probably saying, oh, I suffered through this kind of
poor start.
Speaker 2 (07:37):
Now we're gonna kind of start reaping the benefits.
Speaker 1 (07:39):
You know, he had two home runs in a game recently,
like you know, we're going to start to see this
thing come around. I would look at these numbers that
kind of under the hood and say, take advantage of
the name value and the recent hot streak and see
what you can trade him for if you end up
having to keep him. I don't think it's the end
of the world. This isn't to sell at any cost,
(08:00):
but I think you can actually sell high and get
more value than you will be getting from Altuve rest
of season. So I would be looking to trade him
coming off this last you know, weakish of strong play.
Speaker 3 (08:12):
Who would you rather have rest of season? Westburg or Altuve?
Speaker 1 (08:16):
That's a great question. I think most people would say
al Touve. Well, maybe I'm wrong about that. I think
most people would say Altuve. They both have positional versatility
with Altuve having outfield now, I think I would rather
have That's I think I would rather have Westburg. That's
a really mayor always throws out his like you know,
he puts like the looks at the trade value chart
(08:37):
and throws out his ones, and sometimes they're not very good.
Speaker 2 (08:41):
That's a good one.
Speaker 1 (08:42):
I think I would rather have Westburg, But I feel
more comfortable if once I see him back healthy and
being the Westburg that I expected him to be.
Speaker 2 (08:51):
But I think that's really close. That's a great one.
Speaker 3 (08:53):
Yeah, and I like Heltub, but I've been keeping an
eye on his numbers all year and it has not
It hasn't looked good. But like you said, is a
really high name value. So as always, just look at
your roster like what could you improve on and and
then go check out our trade chart, run it through
our trade analyzer. But like always, you know, keep in
mind like if they again, I'm I'm kind of into
(09:15):
selling like the higher hitters for high pictures at this
point in the year. Like if I'm selling high on Altuba,
I would want a decent picture back. But if you
can find a healthy one, go for it.
Speaker 2 (09:26):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (09:27):
I think he uh, he's a good one with the
name value. His chase rate to eighth percentile, like just brutal.
Speaker 2 (09:34):
So so yeah, sell at.
Speaker 1 (09:37):
Hopefully for somebody pretty decent. Given the name value, You've
got a pretty high name value player here as your
cell high.
Speaker 2 (09:43):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (09:43):
The other guy that I've been looking at whenever I
whenever we do the like Biolo sell high articles, I
feel like I keep I always look at Altub and
then trade. Turner is vastly outperforming what his underlying metrics
are like to a degree that I wasn't even aware of. So, like,
he's currently batting three five but its expected is to
sixty five. He has only five home runs on the year,
(10:05):
and his slugging percentage again is due for regression. He
does have fourteen stolen bases, which you know, I can
understand that being kind of difficult to give up if
you don't have a good backup, you know, if you
if you didn't draft Sale basis he was supposed to
be it, then you're kind of stuck a little bit.
But again, the big name, I would throw him out
there see what people want to talk about. And if
(10:26):
I'm going to start anything to try to get Sodo.
If I had Trey Turner. I would start with trade
Turner and something else and and toss that to the
SODO manager and see what happens, just just to see
how how how much name value does Turner have at
this point?
Speaker 2 (10:44):
What kind of pictures would you be looking to trade
him for.
Speaker 3 (10:48):
That's a little trickier. I think I'm trying. That's a
good question. I don't know. I mean, like, I like
like a Joe Ryan, Pablo Lopez, Like I'm I mean,
that's not high. Those aren't big enough names, but they're consistent,
and they've been pretty healthy. I mean, Lopez has had
(11:08):
his aisle stint, I think because he's typically very, very healthy.
So I like either one of them, just to you know,
and then I would throw in maybe another hitter of
the I don't know why I'm stuck on Westburg now,
but I would throw I would throw in another hitter
at that point, would.
Speaker 1 (11:25):
You trade I'm looking at our rest of season rankings
on fantasypros dot com, So the next well, would you
trade Turner for Jacob de Gram? I am so out
on de Gram stay healthy and so far it's burned
me this year. But like, I don't have him anywhere
I am.
Speaker 3 (11:45):
I feel like I'm the most known Fantasy pros de
gram Downer like I have not. I have not drafted him,
I will not draft him, like he will not be
on any of my teams for the remainder of his
career like I don't. And maybe he makes it through
and I am fine eating that. Like, so no, I'm
not taking to ground for Turner. I just because I'm
(12:05):
not buying the health like he is the Mike Trott
to pitching.
Speaker 1 (12:09):
We have Yamamoto below Turner rest of the season. I
think you and I would both agree to go for
Yamamoto there, Yeah, I'll give you one more pitcher Trede
Turner or thinking that he's gonna be back within about
a week.
Speaker 3 (12:22):
Cole Reagan's oh yeah, I mean again, I would check
his health, like, but if he looks everything seems to
be on track for him, So yeah, I would. I
wouldn't make that trade pretty quickly. I think at this
point just I just think Turner to find again to
find on your makeup of your team. But I just
think I think Turner is in for some serious regression
(12:42):
in some of the areas that you want him to
be better at. And uh, and pitching is always scarce
this time of year because everyone's gotten down.
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or call eight one eight three three nine four nine
five zero four zero. Kind of messed that up at
the end, but I did pretty well with the speed
run through that prior to the d All right, let's
go to our waivers es central here, Kelly, I'll let
you start on this one.
Speaker 3 (14:20):
I've always impressed by the ability to get through that,
and also I think everyone should be impressed with my
ability to not say something snarky about it. Okay, So
first I offered, I was like, should I say ty
France in honor of mayor just because we miss him?
But I am I wrote down Matt Shaw. I think
if he's out there like people, I think a lot
of people dropped him after the first stint. He's only
(14:43):
roster I thinking like forty forty to forty four percent
of leagues in the thirty one at bat since he's
been back, he's got eleven hits, he scored five runs,
stolen four bases. He I think he's locked in as
the cubserve basement at this point because the corpse of
Justine Turner is not going to get it done. So
I'm buying. I'm buying the second stint of the rookie.
(15:07):
So that's who I have.
Speaker 1 (15:09):
I believe he was my pick last week actually in
this spot, and I think it's fine to pick him
again because his roster percentage is still too low. Like
I mean, he's somebody I was drafting a ton of
as already mentioned on the first segment this year, and
that that roster percentage, I mean it needs to be
over fifty percent for sure, like coming back in the
second sent already looking better the second time around, So
(15:32):
like strong agreement for me there. I went with Ryan O'Hearn,
who I was actually really surprised to look at his
roster percentages. So he's sixty percent rostered on CBS, which
by the way, is still too low, but it's at
least more acceptable, twenty two percent on Yahoo, twenty seven
percent on ESPN. I don't know what I know. Those
(15:54):
numbers are always lower than they are on CBS, but
I don't know what people are waiting for, like especially Yahoo,
Like people play on Yahoo, even if it's not as
you know, common as some of these other sites. There's
no under a quarter of people rostering him or I
guess for the Yahoo it's under a third. It's under
a quarter on ESPN, but still, like that's just insane
to me. He has been awesome this year. And O'Hearn
(16:17):
is somebody that I was wrong about as an Orioles fan.
I said they should have traded him last year. I
was like, listen, you got a fun, you know, a
couple of seasons out of him, But like, this is
clearly like a late season, you know, if it is
a late career breakout, like you know this is, I
don't think it's gonna be long lasting. There's other great
prospects and organization.
Speaker 2 (16:34):
I was wrong.
Speaker 1 (16:34):
He has been their best hitter by a mile. This year,
he's been one of the best hitters in baseball. Like,
there are a lot of stats this year where it's
like Aaron Judge shoheo Tani Ryan o'hearan.
Speaker 2 (16:45):
I think that might surprise people.
Speaker 1 (16:46):
Like he has been insanely good. He's got one hundred
and sixty at bats this season, nine home runs, a
three thirty eight batting average, and a nine to seventy
seven OPS. And by the way, his expected numbers are great.
His expecting batting averages ninety ninth percentile. It's three twenty seven.
His expected wOBA is ninety fourth percentile in baseball, over
(17:08):
four hundred. His average exit velosity's over his ninety miles
per hour. It's hard hit rate eighty seventh percentile, it's
over fifty percent. It's just a lot of red and
a stack cast page in addition to a really excellent,
excellent triple slash line right now almost ten homers.
Speaker 2 (17:25):
I think he should be an All Star this year.
Speaker 1 (17:26):
I mean again, he's been the oiels best player, like
by a pretty wide margin. His strikeout rate came down
a lot last year. It was in the twenties every
year of his career before last year, he was at
fourteen percent, a huge decrease this year. It's it's a
little up from last year. It's at sixteen percent, but
still way down from the career mark. The walk rate
is the second highest of his career. But he is
(17:48):
just crushing the ball. He's got a great eye at
the plate right now, He's taking close pitches and he's
almost always right about them. He's dialed in. He's batting fifth,
which really bothers me. He should be batting like third
in this lineup right now. The way the rest of
the guys are hitting, there's no reason for Adlie to
be hitting ahead of in the lineup right now. But
Yeahharn's been awesome this year, like, truly one of the
(18:10):
best players in baseball if you look at the under
the hood stats, and has also been you know, getting
the counting stats, and for some reason is just not
ross like I think he should be. I mean you,
I think if he gets on a cold streak down
the line, he's drop able. But right now he should
be over ninety percent roster in CBS, and he should
(18:30):
be over fifty percent in the other two. Like, there
is no reason for him to be on pretty much
any waiver wire outside of the shallowest of.
Speaker 3 (18:37):
Leagues, Kelly, Yeah, is he batting against lefties? I mean,
are they leaving him in or is he still kind.
Speaker 1 (18:42):
Of kind of platuting But they've started to leave him
in more like against lefty relievers later on in the game,
so he's not always starting against them, but it's not
like an auto. I'm really curious to see kind of
what pattern Tony Manslino falls into his Orioles interim manager,
because Hyde was very much an auto, like he played
(19:04):
the splits like to a fault in my opinion, and
I don't think Mansilino is doing that as much like
Holidays obviously playing a lot more in the last couple
of weeks. So I hope that, especially since he's your
best player, that he just becomes an everyday guy and
they don't worry about that as much moving forward.
Speaker 3 (19:23):
Yeah, And don't get me wrong, and a waivers guy like,
it doesn't particularly matter if they're if they're in a platoon,
like depending on how deep your league is, like, pick
him up, he's on he's on a tear, like you said,
if he goes on some sort of really long cold streak,
drop him like this isn't especially if you don't have
to give up anything other than a little bit of
fab to get him, Like, yeah, there's you're not You're
not gonna lose anything. And and like you said, his
(19:44):
expected numbers are right there, so I think it's okay
to he He's definitely a target for sure.
Speaker 1 (19:51):
I'm in that league where I'm doing really well and
it's a relatively deep league. There's only ten teams, but
it's pretty big rosters. And I picked him up for
free like three days ago, like just still not rostered.
So he is available for basically nothing. Let's go to
our favorite pitchers. You go first to get here.
Speaker 3 (20:11):
Yeah, I had a tough time with this one.
Speaker 1 (20:13):
Just this is always, this is every single week. Mayor
and I are like, well, we didn't really know what
to do with picture. We might as well remove this
from the show.
Speaker 3 (20:22):
I mean, it's just like, yeah, there's so there's just
so few I think out there that you really want
to pick up. But so I'm going to roll with
Zebie Matthews from The Twins just because he's getting some
more innings. They're letting him start. I think that he's
getting you know, stretched out a little bit. His last
start against Kansas City went really well. I mean, he
only went four innings, but he didn't he only walked
(20:45):
one person and struck out nine. So I'm willing to
build on that. I trust the Twins a lot with
their starting pitchers, Chris Paddock notwithstanding, but between like Lopez
and Ryan and Over, I'm I'm fine, like and he
I think Matthew's he may not stick in the rotation,
(21:05):
but like right now, I'm willing to give him. I'm
willing to give him a few more starts if the
Twins are so. He's my he's my pickup. But no,
it was rough. It was rough till you know out there.
Speaker 1 (21:17):
I'm curious what you think about my pick here, which
is Lance mccolors very available twenty five percent on CBS,
seven percent of Yahoo, three percent on ESPN. Rostered coming
off of yesterday an actually really good start. Clearly like
didn't pitch for two full seasons. He had that blow
up where he gave up seven earned runs in just
(21:39):
a third of an inning on May tenth against the
Reds and that, but that is really kind of dragging
up the r The rest of the starts, it's been
pretty good. It's been what ten it's been eighteen innings,
five earned runs, So like a two fifty r if
you take out that one blow up where he was
just all but he had twelve strikeouts yesterday in the
(22:03):
last ten and a third innings, he has twenty strikeouts,
you know, looking closer to the mccolors of old, and
he's very available. So like similar to maybe some of
these other guys we've we've scoffed at Trout and de
grav like you're not feeling very confident about staying healthy.
(22:23):
And I don't even know if you're that confident about
him staying good.
Speaker 2 (22:26):
But given what he has been.
Speaker 1 (22:29):
At pass points in his career, given the fact that
this is now two okay, I mean he only went
four and a third innings his last start out, but
he had eight strikeouts in that time. So it's two
very high strikeout outings back to back with that aren't
killing the era the way that early blow up did.
I'm interested in rostering him. I don't know that I'm
giving up, you know.
Speaker 2 (22:50):
The farm for him.
Speaker 1 (22:51):
Well I know I'm not, but I should say giving
up the farm for him, and I don't know what
I would expect like healthwise rest of season, but coming
off these these last two starts, I want to pick
them up if I need to find a picture.
Speaker 3 (23:05):
Yeah, same rules apply here, right, like if you want,
if you have space, or you need to have an
injury replacement, like I think you can certainly do worse
than mccolors. And if he blows up twice, then you've
learned your lessons. Asso back. But I think at this point,
especially whoever, I'm not sure whose matchups are coming up.
But yeah, he's I think he's totally viable to pick
(23:27):
up as a waiver.
Speaker 2 (23:28):
Oh that that was the other thing too. He gets
Pittsburgh and.
Speaker 1 (23:31):
His next start, okay, so so that is extra I
think I think he gets the Guardians after that. But yeah,
Pittsburgh is his next lined up start. Okay, so that's
an appealing one for sure. All Right, we'll go ahead
and wrap up there for part two. If you missed
part one, be sure to check out Round in the Bases.
We went through some lessons learned this season, some other
news and notes, and stick around for Part three coming
(23:53):
up later this weekend, where we talked about some pitching
streamers and we go through a two start picture competition
and other fun stuff For Kelly, I'm Ryan Warmy. Thanks
for tuning in and we'll see you next time. Thanks
for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Baseball podcast. If
you love the show, the best freeway to support us
is by leaving a positive review on Apple.
Speaker 2 (24:12):
Podcasts or Spotify.
Speaker 1 (24:13):
Follow us on x, Instagram, and TikTok at Fantasy Pros,
and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com
slash Fantasy Pros MLB
Hello, everybody, Welcome into the cycle, part two of the week.
Speaker 2 (00:08):
I am Ryan.
Speaker 1 (00:08):
Warmley joined as you can see not if you're watching YouTube,
at least not by Mike mahyor, but by Kelly Kirby,
failing it for all three sections this week. As Mayor
is out and about, he is not here to try
to goad me into taking more tequila shots on every
single segment like he did last week, which is which
is makes it easier on Meat to not have to
(00:30):
turn away that peer pressure he was hitting me with,
although it was quite fun to do it in the
first segment last week.
Speaker 2 (00:37):
Kelly, thanks for hopping on for this one. We'll dive
right in here.
Speaker 1 (00:40):
We're gonna talk to some buys and sells. We're also
gonna do some waivers on this segment as well. We
always start with our favorite by lows, and I always say,
like we listed as a by loan and sell High.
Technically it could be a Bye High and a Cello.
It's really just a buy and sell because sometimes it does.
Speaker 2 (00:57):
Fit in those other ways. I think we did.
Speaker 1 (01:00):
We kind of both went with the more standard interpretation
of it. This time, I'll go first with the by Low.
I put Christian Campbell, and then I put parentheses gross
because there's not a whole lot in the profile that
says like, oh, this is somebody who is going to
be regressing to the mean soon, and you need to be,
(01:20):
you know, getting in on him before his numbers catch
up to his expected numbers. I mean, technically his batting
average is lower than expected, but his expected batting average
is still like two thirty four, So it's, you know,
it's not like it's anything great.
Speaker 2 (01:32):
Same with slugging.
Speaker 1 (01:33):
It's like, technically he's below what is expected is, but
he's expected is not high. The reason that I picked
him well was two reasons. One, I really struggled to
come up with a goodbye this week. I just did
not have a lot of options that I liked. It
was it was the section of preparing for the show
that took me the longest, because I just couldn't land
on somebody that I felt really good about recommending. I
(01:54):
did think about Boba Schett, which I talked about a
little in our part one of this week's episode, but
ultimately went away from.
Speaker 2 (02:00):
Him with Campbell.
Speaker 1 (02:02):
The two real reasons that I kind of fell back
to him. One is starting to play a little first base.
I know that's a position that some people need, so
just getting that extra positional versatility, like I am interested
in having that on my roster. But b it's really
just saying top prospects takes some time to adjust, and
I'm gonna believe in the pedigree and believe in his
(02:26):
talent as a top prospect in baseball and believe that
he will figure it out. There is nothing in the
numbers where I'm sitting here saying he's definitely going to
figure it out for this reason. And here's the one
stat why you should be buying a Christian Campbell. This
is strictly he is the type of guy I want
to be buying in a top prospect who got off
(02:49):
to a slow start, who has positional versatility, who's in
a lineup that could be good at some point if
they call up Anthony and get Bregmant healthy and all
that stuff. And he's just the type of guy that
also you can get pretty cheap, so you can't actually
buy low on him, I think, in any redraft format.
Speaker 2 (03:04):
So that's why I picked him.
Speaker 1 (03:06):
I don't have a ton of conviction with it, because,
like I said, it was difficult for me to pick
somebody here, but Campbells where I ended up going. What
do you think about that?
Speaker 3 (03:12):
Yeah, I mean I think you this is this is
the definition of low, right, So if you believe that
this is going to turn around, I'm with you. I
think that it's an okay. Just make sure you absolutely
do not overpay it anyway. You really really want to
keep it low for him?
Speaker 2 (03:28):
Yeah, for sure? Who do you have is year by low?
Speaker 3 (03:31):
I went with I secretly call him like mister boring,
but I was gonna go with mon Soto. We talked
about that a little bit in the in the first episode.
But and again, if you're I mean, if you're in
a league with people who panic, then maybe I feel
like everyone's going to hold him anyway. So I pivoted
to Brian Reynolds. He got off to a real sluggish start,
(03:52):
but he's currently bating into twenty three. He's only got
seven home runs thirty RBIs I mean the Pirates said
or came close to the record for going the most
games in a row without scoring more than four runs.
It was just a mess. His strikeout rate is also
up to twenty six point seven from his career twenty
two point two percent, and his expected batting average isn't
(04:16):
astoundingly better. It's at two sixty three, but that's kind
of in line with what he usually does. But the
thing that I want is his slugging. So he's currently
at three sixty, but his expected slugging is five h two,
so I think that the home runs are coming. His
weighted on bass average is also seventy points below expected,
and I think a lot of it has to do
he has a two seventy eight babbup and his career
(04:39):
mark is three twenty four. So I would be completely
willing to buy at this point that he will revert
back to being mister boring but also mister consistent and
he's not gonna hurt. Like basically, Brian Reynolds, as we
draft in that round where everyone else is like reaching
for like the hot players like rookie Sosaki, and you
just draft him because his floor just like made of concrete.
(05:02):
He's going to sit there and it's not a bad
person to have on your team.
Speaker 1 (05:07):
Listen for that one manager in my other league round
you reach on Roki Sasaki is round one. Yeah, yeah,
Brian Reynolds, I mean the last four seasons home run
totals twenty four, twenty seven, twenty four to twenty four,
just like a metronome of consistency. Do you think he
gets to the mid twenties this year or do you
(05:27):
think the slow start will I mean, like, could he
fall short of twenty this year? What to what degree
do you see that kind of bounce back playing out
over the course of the season in terms of the
power numbers.
Speaker 3 (05:38):
I think he'll get to twenty for sure. I mean
I can see twenty four. I just think it depends
on kind of how fast he bounces back. But he
hit a homer a couple of days ago, and I
think it's coming like it's it's sitting right there. So
I think he'll get to twenty. He might fall a
little short of the twenty.
Speaker 2 (05:55):
Four realistically, even the pace he's on.
Speaker 1 (06:00):
Down it's he's on pace for about twenty like even
with the slow pace, So you know, if he picks
it up, then could even get back to that kind
of twenty four to twenty five range. So I like
to pick Brian Reynolds is one of my favorites every year,
so I'm super on board with this. Let's go to
the cell highs I put a Jose Altuve. He has
(06:21):
finally started to show some signs of life. Some of
the counting stats were okay even prior to this stretch
down for him, like particularly on the batting average, but
it was okay, like he had like six homers and
four steals or something, you know, through mid May. It
wasn't like he was. It was like a literal nothing
but very bad for al Tuove. And then the thing
where we talked about in a couple weeks on the show,
(06:43):
the stack cast that is really really poor. It it's
a lot of very dark blue on his stat cast page.
I mean, his average, even with this hot streak, his
average eggs of velocity is eighty five point three miles
per hour. That's fourth percentile. His sweet spot percentage is
second percentile in baseball, it's under a quarter of the time.
Bat speed is eleventh percentile, hard hit rate tenth, barrel
(07:06):
rate twenty first, expected batting average twenty fourth, like the
expected batting average for Altuova. His batting average is two
sixty seven, his expected numbers two thirty six. Like that's
just so unlike Altuove, even like a year ago, that was,
you know, seventy fifth percentile. The expected batting average this
year is twenty fourth. It's just it's been very, very poor.
(07:27):
So I I think if you have Altov on your roster,
you're probably saying, oh, I suffered through this kind of
poor start.
Speaker 2 (07:37):
Now we're gonna kind of start reaping the benefits.
Speaker 1 (07:39):
You know, he had two home runs in a game recently,
like you know, we're going to start to see this
thing come around. I would look at these numbers that
kind of under the hood and say, take advantage of
the name value and the recent hot streak and see
what you can trade him for if you end up
having to keep him. I don't think it's the end
of the world. This isn't to sell at any cost,
(08:00):
but I think you can actually sell high and get
more value than you will be getting from Altuve rest
of season. So I would be looking to trade him
coming off this last you know, weakish of strong play.
Speaker 3 (08:12):
Who would you rather have rest of season? Westburg or Altuve?
Speaker 1 (08:16):
That's a great question. I think most people would say
al Touve. Well, maybe I'm wrong about that. I think
most people would say Altuve. They both have positional versatility
with Altuve having outfield now, I think I would rather
have That's I think I would rather have Westburg. That's
a really mayor always throws out his like you know,
he puts like the looks at the trade value chart
(08:37):
and throws out his ones, and sometimes they're not very good.
Speaker 2 (08:41):
That's a good one.
Speaker 1 (08:42):
I think I would rather have Westburg, But I feel
more comfortable if once I see him back healthy and
being the Westburg that I expected him to be.
Speaker 2 (08:51):
But I think that's really close. That's a great one.
Speaker 3 (08:53):
Yeah, and I like Heltub, but I've been keeping an
eye on his numbers all year and it has not
It hasn't looked good. But like you said, is a
really high name value. So as always, just look at
your roster like what could you improve on and and
then go check out our trade chart, run it through
our trade analyzer. But like always, you know, keep in
mind like if they again, I'm I'm kind of into
(09:15):
selling like the higher hitters for high pictures at this
point in the year. Like if I'm selling high on Altuba,
I would want a decent picture back. But if you
can find a healthy one, go for it.
Speaker 2 (09:26):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (09:27):
I think he uh, he's a good one with the
name value. His chase rate to eighth percentile, like just brutal.
Speaker 2 (09:34):
So so yeah, sell at.
Speaker 1 (09:37):
Hopefully for somebody pretty decent. Given the name value, You've
got a pretty high name value player here as your
cell high.
Speaker 2 (09:43):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (09:43):
The other guy that I've been looking at whenever I
whenever we do the like Biolo sell high articles, I
feel like I keep I always look at Altub and
then trade. Turner is vastly outperforming what his underlying metrics
are like to a degree that I wasn't even aware of. So, like,
he's currently batting three five but its expected is to
sixty five. He has only five home runs on the year,
(10:05):
and his slugging percentage again is due for regression. He
does have fourteen stolen bases, which you know, I can
understand that being kind of difficult to give up if
you don't have a good backup, you know, if you
if you didn't draft Sale basis he was supposed to
be it, then you're kind of stuck a little bit.
But again, the big name, I would throw him out
there see what people want to talk about. And if
(10:26):
I'm going to start anything to try to get Sodo.
If I had Trey Turner. I would start with trade
Turner and something else and and toss that to the
SODO manager and see what happens, just just to see
how how how much name value does Turner have at
this point?
Speaker 2 (10:44):
What kind of pictures would you be looking to trade
him for.
Speaker 3 (10:48):
That's a little trickier. I think I'm trying. That's a
good question. I don't know. I mean, like, I like
like a Joe Ryan, Pablo Lopez, Like I'm I mean,
that's not high. Those aren't big enough names, but they're consistent,
and they've been pretty healthy. I mean, Lopez has had
(11:08):
his aisle stint, I think because he's typically very, very healthy.
So I like either one of them, just to you know,
and then I would throw in maybe another hitter of
the I don't know why I'm stuck on Westburg now,
but I would throw I would throw in another hitter
at that point, would.
Speaker 1 (11:25):
You trade I'm looking at our rest of season rankings
on fantasypros dot com, So the next well, would you
trade Turner for Jacob de Gram? I am so out
on de Gram stay healthy and so far it's burned
me this year. But like, I don't have him anywhere
I am.
Speaker 3 (11:45):
I feel like I'm the most known Fantasy pros de
gram Downer like I have not. I have not drafted him,
I will not draft him, like he will not be
on any of my teams for the remainder of his
career like I don't. And maybe he makes it through
and I am fine eating that. Like, so no, I'm
not taking to ground for Turner. I just because I'm
(12:05):
not buying the health like he is the Mike Trott
to pitching.
Speaker 1 (12:09):
We have Yamamoto below Turner rest of the season. I
think you and I would both agree to go for
Yamamoto there, Yeah, I'll give you one more pitcher Trede
Turner or thinking that he's gonna be back within about
a week.
Speaker 3 (12:22):
Cole Reagan's oh yeah, I mean again, I would check
his health, like, but if he looks everything seems to
be on track for him, So yeah, I would. I
wouldn't make that trade pretty quickly. I think at this
point just I just think Turner to find again to
find on your makeup of your team. But I just
think I think Turner is in for some serious regression
(12:42):
in some of the areas that you want him to
be better at. And uh, and pitching is always scarce
this time of year because everyone's gotten down.
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or call eight one eight three three nine four nine
five zero four zero. Kind of messed that up at
the end, but I did pretty well with the speed
run through that prior to the d All right, let's
go to our waivers es central here, Kelly, I'll let
you start on this one.
Speaker 3 (14:20):
I've always impressed by the ability to get through that,
and also I think everyone should be impressed with my
ability to not say something snarky about it. Okay, So
first I offered, I was like, should I say ty
France in honor of mayor just because we miss him?
But I am I wrote down Matt Shaw. I think
if he's out there like people, I think a lot
of people dropped him after the first stint. He's only
(14:43):
roster I thinking like forty forty to forty four percent
of leagues in the thirty one at bat since he's
been back, he's got eleven hits, he scored five runs,
stolen four bases. He I think he's locked in as
the cubserve basement at this point because the corpse of
Justine Turner is not going to get it done. So
I'm buying. I'm buying the second stint of the rookie.
(15:07):
So that's who I have.
Speaker 1 (15:09):
I believe he was my pick last week actually in
this spot, and I think it's fine to pick him
again because his roster percentage is still too low. Like
I mean, he's somebody I was drafting a ton of
as already mentioned on the first segment this year, and
that that roster percentage, I mean it needs to be
over fifty percent for sure, like coming back in the
second sent already looking better the second time around, So
(15:32):
like strong agreement for me there. I went with Ryan O'Hearn,
who I was actually really surprised to look at his
roster percentages. So he's sixty percent rostered on CBS, which
by the way, is still too low, but it's at
least more acceptable, twenty two percent on Yahoo, twenty seven
percent on ESPN. I don't know what I know. Those
(15:54):
numbers are always lower than they are on CBS, but
I don't know what people are waiting for, like especially Yahoo,
Like people play on Yahoo, even if it's not as
you know, common as some of these other sites. There's
no under a quarter of people rostering him or I
guess for the Yahoo it's under a third. It's under
a quarter on ESPN, but still, like that's just insane
to me. He has been awesome this year. And O'Hearn
(16:17):
is somebody that I was wrong about as an Orioles fan.
I said they should have traded him last year. I
was like, listen, you got a fun, you know, a
couple of seasons out of him, But like, this is
clearly like a late season, you know, if it is
a late career breakout, like you know this is, I
don't think it's gonna be long lasting. There's other great
prospects and organization.
Speaker 2 (16:34):
I was wrong.
Speaker 1 (16:34):
He has been their best hitter by a mile. This year,
he's been one of the best hitters in baseball. Like,
there are a lot of stats this year where it's
like Aaron Judge shoheo Tani Ryan o'hearan.
Speaker 2 (16:45):
I think that might surprise people.
Speaker 1 (16:46):
Like he has been insanely good. He's got one hundred
and sixty at bats this season, nine home runs, a
three thirty eight batting average, and a nine to seventy
seven OPS. And by the way, his expected numbers are great.
His expecting batting averages ninety ninth percentile. It's three twenty seven.
His expected wOBA is ninety fourth percentile in baseball, over
(17:08):
four hundred. His average exit velosity's over his ninety miles
per hour. It's hard hit rate eighty seventh percentile, it's
over fifty percent. It's just a lot of red and
a stack cast page in addition to a really excellent,
excellent triple slash line right now almost ten homers.
Speaker 2 (17:25):
I think he should be an All Star this year.
Speaker 1 (17:26):
I mean again, he's been the oiels best player, like
by a pretty wide margin. His strikeout rate came down
a lot last year. It was in the twenties every
year of his career before last year, he was at
fourteen percent, a huge decrease this year. It's it's a
little up from last year. It's at sixteen percent, but
still way down from the career mark. The walk rate
is the second highest of his career. But he is
(17:48):
just crushing the ball. He's got a great eye at
the plate right now, He's taking close pitches and he's
almost always right about them. He's dialed in. He's batting fifth,
which really bothers me. He should be batting like third
in this lineup right now. The way the rest of
the guys are hitting, there's no reason for Adlie to
be hitting ahead of in the lineup right now. But
Yeahharn's been awesome this year, like, truly one of the
(18:10):
best players in baseball if you look at the under
the hood stats, and has also been you know, getting
the counting stats, and for some reason is just not
ross like I think he should be. I mean you,
I think if he gets on a cold streak down
the line, he's drop able. But right now he should
be over ninety percent roster in CBS, and he should
(18:30):
be over fifty percent in the other two. Like, there
is no reason for him to be on pretty much
any waiver wire outside of the shallowest of.
Speaker 3 (18:37):
Leagues, Kelly, Yeah, is he batting against lefties? I mean,
are they leaving him in or is he still kind.
Speaker 1 (18:42):
Of kind of platuting But they've started to leave him
in more like against lefty relievers later on in the game,
so he's not always starting against them, but it's not
like an auto. I'm really curious to see kind of
what pattern Tony Manslino falls into his Orioles interim manager,
because Hyde was very much an auto, like he played
(19:04):
the splits like to a fault in my opinion, and
I don't think Mansilino is doing that as much like
Holidays obviously playing a lot more in the last couple
of weeks. So I hope that, especially since he's your
best player, that he just becomes an everyday guy and
they don't worry about that as much moving forward.
Speaker 3 (19:23):
Yeah, And don't get me wrong, and a waivers guy like,
it doesn't particularly matter if they're if they're in a platoon,
like depending on how deep your league is, like, pick
him up, he's on he's on a tear, like you said,
if he goes on some sort of really long cold streak,
drop him like this isn't especially if you don't have
to give up anything other than a little bit of
fab to get him, Like, yeah, there's you're not You're
not gonna lose anything. And and like you said, his
(19:44):
expected numbers are right there, so I think it's okay
to he He's definitely a target for sure.
Speaker 1 (19:51):
I'm in that league where I'm doing really well and
it's a relatively deep league. There's only ten teams, but
it's pretty big rosters. And I picked him up for
free like three days ago, like just still not rostered.
So he is available for basically nothing. Let's go to
our favorite pitchers. You go first to get here.
Speaker 3 (20:11):
Yeah, I had a tough time with this one.
Speaker 1 (20:13):
Just this is always, this is every single week. Mayor
and I are like, well, we didn't really know what
to do with picture. We might as well remove this
from the show.
Speaker 3 (20:22):
I mean, it's just like, yeah, there's so there's just
so few I think out there that you really want
to pick up. But so I'm going to roll with
Zebie Matthews from The Twins just because he's getting some
more innings. They're letting him start. I think that he's
getting you know, stretched out a little bit. His last
start against Kansas City went really well. I mean, he
only went four innings, but he didn't he only walked
(20:45):
one person and struck out nine. So I'm willing to
build on that. I trust the Twins a lot with
their starting pitchers, Chris Paddock notwithstanding, but between like Lopez
and Ryan and Over, I'm I'm fine, like and he
I think Matthew's he may not stick in the rotation,
(21:05):
but like right now, I'm willing to give him. I'm
willing to give him a few more starts if the
Twins are so. He's my he's my pickup. But no,
it was rough. It was rough till you know out there.
Speaker 1 (21:17):
I'm curious what you think about my pick here, which
is Lance mccolors very available twenty five percent on CBS,
seven percent of Yahoo, three percent on ESPN. Rostered coming
off of yesterday an actually really good start. Clearly like
didn't pitch for two full seasons. He had that blow
up where he gave up seven earned runs in just
(21:39):
a third of an inning on May tenth against the
Reds and that, but that is really kind of dragging
up the r The rest of the starts, it's been
pretty good. It's been what ten it's been eighteen innings,
five earned runs, So like a two fifty r if
you take out that one blow up where he was
just all but he had twelve strikeouts yesterday in the
(22:03):
last ten and a third innings, he has twenty strikeouts,
you know, looking closer to the mccolors of old, and
he's very available. So like similar to maybe some of
these other guys we've we've scoffed at Trout and de
grav like you're not feeling very confident about staying healthy.
(22:23):
And I don't even know if you're that confident about
him staying good.
Speaker 2 (22:26):
But given what he has been.
Speaker 1 (22:29):
At pass points in his career, given the fact that
this is now two okay, I mean he only went
four and a third innings his last start out, but
he had eight strikeouts in that time. So it's two
very high strikeout outings back to back with that aren't
killing the era the way that early blow up did.
I'm interested in rostering him. I don't know that I'm
giving up, you know.
Speaker 2 (22:50):
The farm for him.
Speaker 1 (22:51):
Well I know I'm not, but I should say giving
up the farm for him, and I don't know what
I would expect like healthwise rest of season, but coming
off these these last two starts, I want to pick
them up if I need to find a picture.
Speaker 3 (23:05):
Yeah, same rules apply here, right, like if you want,
if you have space, or you need to have an
injury replacement, like I think you can certainly do worse
than mccolors. And if he blows up twice, then you've
learned your lessons. Asso back. But I think at this point,
especially whoever, I'm not sure whose matchups are coming up.
But yeah, he's I think he's totally viable to pick
(23:27):
up as a waiver.
Speaker 2 (23:28):
Oh that that was the other thing too. He gets
Pittsburgh and.
Speaker 1 (23:31):
His next start, okay, so so that is extra I
think I think he gets the Guardians after that. But yeah,
Pittsburgh is his next lined up start. Okay, so that's
an appealing one for sure. All Right, we'll go ahead
and wrap up there for part two. If you missed
part one, be sure to check out Round in the Bases.
We went through some lessons learned this season, some other
news and notes, and stick around for Part three coming
(23:53):
up later this weekend, where we talked about some pitching
streamers and we go through a two start picture competition
and other fun stuff For Kelly, I'm Ryan Warmy. Thanks
for tuning in and we'll see you next time. Thanks
for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Baseball podcast. If
you love the show, the best freeway to support us
is by leaving a positive review on Apple.
Speaker 2 (24:12):
Podcasts or Spotify.
Speaker 1 (24:13):
Follow us on x, Instagram, and TikTok at Fantasy Pros,
and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com
slash Fantasy Pros MLB
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