The Cycle: Rounding The Bases (Ep. 1112)

Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:05):
Hello, everybody, Welcome back to another episode of the cycle.
I am your host, Mike Mayer, and I am joined
by Kelly Kirby and Ryan Warmly, who just refuses to
leave the show, even though he kicked him off and
he said he was gonna go work on football, and
so there's a reason he's back, and we're going to
get into that pretty much right away here. There's been

(00:26):
a situation in a league that we're in together, and basically,
we need you, the audience, and we need Kelly to
help us decide if I'm going to quit this league
this offseason. And I know that most of the time,
you know, listeners don't really care about about the leagues
that you know, the you know, the hosts are in,
and so we're not going to spend a ton of
time on it just talking about our leagues. But we

(00:46):
did think this situation was interesting enough, and it is
pretty similar to some things that are brought up on
our discord from time to time or in the at
our mail bag email address, where people get into some situations,
whether it's about trades and whether things should be void,
or about situations in their league and whether they should
stay in them or leave or try to track someone
down and find their money. And so we're going to

(01:07):
bring worm on and discuss what happened in our league.
And so, Kelly, how are you doing today?

Speaker 2 (01:14):
I'm doing great because I'm not in this league. But
let's not act like this is the first time I've
had to watch the two of you fight about it.
So you know, I'm glad we're doing it live now.

Speaker 3 (01:23):
Yeah, Kelly's been privy to our slack dms previewing this discussion.

Speaker 1 (01:29):
I also shared a lot of the details on Twitter,
and I got to say, well, let me just.

Speaker 3 (01:34):
Say this, We're out the bat. You shared a lot
of details on Twitter, you did not share all of them.
You skipped some pretty key pieces of context that I'm
not surprised to vote with the way it did because
there was stuff missing in there. So I'm excited to
be able to clear the air on that.

Speaker 1 (01:50):
Well, let's not keep everyone waiting. Do you want me
to dive in and tell everyone, well, what happened in
this corrupt league that you invited me.

Speaker 4 (01:56):
To corrupt ocarties that were Kelly? I want your opinion.

Speaker 3 (01:59):
Would it be better for mayor who is the perceived
aggrieved party to give his stance first, and then me.

Speaker 4 (02:06):
To rebut it or would be better for me.

Speaker 3 (02:08):
To give some of the history and context of the
league and explain our perspective and then toss the mayor.

Speaker 4 (02:12):
What do you think would make more sense here?

Speaker 2 (02:14):
What I think is gonna make sense is I'm going
to give Mayor two and a half minutes to give
his his approach, and then I'll just interrupt him and
then you can explain why he's wrong, because obviously Mayor's wrong.

Speaker 4 (02:25):
So I'm glad we're establishing that early.

Speaker 3 (02:29):
Yeah, objection, But by the way, like, yeah, I know
you're to your point about like people not really caring
so much about people's consider this like a fantasy court scenario, right,
like like chose you that all the time? This is like,
you know, I think I think it's one sided, but
you know, I think it's an interesting conversation and it's
not you know, related to the strength of a specific player.

(02:50):
It's kind of that rules and commissioner type stuff that
I think people will have an opinion on. So I'm
hoping everybody in the comments will will share their opinion
and you know, respectfully tell you that you are being crazy.

Speaker 1 (03:02):
Oh, I hope so too.

Speaker 3 (03:03):
Also, the last thing I'll say too is is I
was literally messaging you mayre the day before this all
went down about how you know, one thing that this
show has been missing in the two years you and
I have done it is we agree a little too much,
like there are players that you might you know, have
ranked more highly than me, or something like. It's not
like we literally have the exact same opinion on everything,

(03:25):
but by and large we're in the same direction on
most stuff, and we tend to largely be pretty like
cordial and agree and there's not a lot of like enthusiastic, organic,
real debate. And literally less than twenty four hours later,
this happened, and I was like, I very genuinely think
you're being crazy here, and we enthusiastically disagree. So it's

(03:45):
almost like, you know, good timing that this happened, and
I figured this would be a good transition for me
off the show here moving forward, but for this season,
I should clarify, we're we're not canceling the show over this,
but yeah, go ahead and and give your opinion here.

Speaker 1 (03:58):
All right, I'll break it down real quick. I don't
have to spend a full two and a half minutes on.
I'll give everyone the background. So this past offseason, Worm
invited me to this long running league that he's been
a part of. It's a hybrid keeper slash dynasty points league.
We've mentioned in a bunch on the show as a
point of reverence. And so I took over probably the
worst orphan team I've ever seen in my life in

(04:21):
any sport, and between some good drafting and a lot
of good luck, thank you, Kyle Raley, I actually took
them from worst to in the playoff hunt. And so
it's been a lot of fun trying to compete in
this league with you know, a bunch of members who
know each other. That's key to this story. And so
what happened recently is the Emmanuel class a suspension happened,

(04:46):
and it happened on a Monday, which is the worst
timing for a weekly lineup league. And I'm in other
leagues where there is an emergency clause where something like
this happens, and maybe like once a year you're able
to message the commissioner and say, Hey, I have an emergency,
can you swap out this player for me? And it's
no problem. I asked for that in this league, and
they said, no, that's not a thing. You just have
to take the empty lineup spot. And because it's a

(05:07):
hybrid keeper dynasty, I actually didn't have a backup reliever
because I'm using a lot of those spots for you know,
prospects or places to you know, pitchers, players to fill
in other other another spots. So I didn't have another reliever.
So I'm like, all right, that's a bummer. But you know,
I guess I'm just gonna have to take the zero
in my lineup spot this week. And that's important for
two reasons. One, it's it's weekly head to head points league,

(05:30):
but you have two matchups every week. You have a
matchup with one other opponent, and then you have a
matchup against the median, you know, the median score for
the league. So you could potentially go two and oh
one and one or zero and two, depending on how
things go. And so I'm like, all right, that's a bummer,
but maybe I can at least salvage a one in
one out of out of you know, this week, and
you know, hope my my team does well. So then
the week is going and it's pretty close. I'm up

(05:53):
on the media, and it's like back and forth with
the with my opponent. But my opponent had an illegal
lineup and so he was set to get a zero
for the week, and we knew this on Monday, and
it wasn't until I think Friday night, where the commissioner,
the same commissioner who told me no about the emmanual
class a emergency provision, went in and personally fixed this

(06:17):
other this, my opponent's illegal lineup from you know, a
lineup that was set to get a zero, fixed his lineup,
and then I ended up losing both of my matchups.
I lost my head to head matchup with my opponent.
He ended up having a great week with his you know,
a lineup that was you know, magically fixed on Friday.
I'm you know, who knows which players were hand picked.
Probably players who were already doing great that week were

(06:38):
already hand picked to put in his lineup. And I
also lost to the meetium by a few points because
I had a blank spot in my lineup where if
I had a reliever, I probably would have at least
gone one in one. And so I am justifiably pretty
outraged by this. And again I'm the newcomer to the league,
and it feels very suspicious that the bubble playoff team
who's the newcomer, is like being punished so that one

(07:01):
of the commissioner's buddies can make the playoffs. I arrest
my case.

Speaker 2 (07:05):
Cool that only took three minutes and twelve seconds. All right, worm,
what you got?

Speaker 4 (07:11):
Okay?

Speaker 3 (07:11):
So very key pieces of information are missing from Mayor's story.

Speaker 4 (07:16):
Uh number one.

Speaker 3 (07:18):
Number one, the reason turn, the reason that you were
not able to pick up an emergency replacement on Monday
is because of the keeper and salary cap format of
the league, where if you had had a backup, like
on your ucer, it would have been I'm not the commissioner,
but I'm just saying we to represent the league. But

(07:39):
like it would have been moved in. You didn't we
the crewer, you didn't have you didn't have a backup.
The only scenario in which this is going to burn
you is if it happens Monday, because we only do
nightly waivers and you don't have a backup. So it
was a very specific set of circumstances that led to that,
and you kind of accepted that, like, hey, it sucks,
we don't have this rule in place. We have actually

(07:59):
talked about adding that rule in the off season, and
there is a lot of support for it. It just
hasn't happened yet because we haven't found like kind of
a perfect method. But it's just really unfortunate. I don't
see a difference between a suspension versus an injury. Obviously
one is way more unique of a scenario, but effectively
it's the same thing. You are all of a sudden,
without warning, not having this player for a week in
a weekly format. It sucks, but everybody in this league

(08:22):
has been burned by Okay, this isn't just like a
you thing. Everybody has had to take a zero because
a pitcher got scratched on and their team didn't play
till Tuesday or whatever.

Speaker 4 (08:31):
So that was just quickly on that.

Speaker 3 (08:33):
First part, the illegal lineup. There was no putting in
of specific players, There was no there was no It
wasn't that his lineup was incomplete and it was made full.

Speaker 4 (08:44):
By the commissioner.

Speaker 3 (08:46):
The only fix that was made was there was a
for all we know, no, no, we do know what
we do know there was a So there was this
huge issue a couple of weeks ago in the league
that May and I talked about in the show with
this veto and this guy basically like lost his mind
and was like so angry about a decision that was
made that the entire league, including mayor, agreed with that

(09:08):
he like was messing with his roster and everything and
basically trying to like like torpedo this thing. So for
one week only, our commissioner added a third IL spot.

Speaker 4 (09:17):
We usually only have two.

Speaker 3 (09:18):
He added a third IL spot to make this guy's lineup. Okay,
not let him ruin the league. He had quit the
league already, but we got a new manager to replace him.
It was a one week only third IL spot. There
were like six hundred messages about this in our chat
because there was a lot of back and forth with
this huge fight. This guy like again really losing his
marbles and kind of rage quitting. And one of the

(09:39):
managers in the league, who is not attempting, he's not
in the playoff hunt at all, he's very very having
a bad season, was in the middle of a big
move and was like, I can't read through all these
messages and not even the playoffs, like I'm not looking
at this, but he saw, oh, there's a third IL spot.
You know, let me throw a guy in there, go
gets into the next week, didn't rea it. The game

(10:01):
started and goes, oh, I didn't realize this was a
one week thing. I need, I need to get rid
of one of these IL guys to make this lineup legal.
There was no changing of any players in the lineup.
There was no like, oh, he only started three outfielders
instead of four, let's fix that. It was literally just
to make it legal dropping one of the three IL
guys that you know was only in there for one week,

(10:22):
and this manager wasn't aware of the other key piece,
the other key piece of context, I agree it should
have happened earlier in the week. I actually don't disagree
with that. I was kind of annoyed that it took
as long as it did. But the other key piece
of information is this league has been going on for
like six or seven years. Every single illegal lineup in
the history of this league has been fixed. We have

(10:42):
a very established, clear precedent of rejection. We are not
going to let teams get free wins because of an
illegal lineup.

Speaker 4 (10:52):
That's not to say lineups have been optimized.

Speaker 3 (10:54):
There have been people who have started only three outfielders
instead of four, and you just take the zero and
that's your own stupid and it's fine. It's very specifically
to get it to get a zero with something that
is like a technical glitch, right, like he didn't start
too many players. He accidentally had that third eyel spot
because he wasn't aware. It was this one week increase
to fix this previous issue. Who was an honest mistake,

(11:16):
and that has been fixed not just in previous seasons,
but earlier this season. That has happened with an illegal
lineup that was like I think, I think the one
earlier this year was like some miners guy was no
longer minors eligible. Guy didn't realize it, you know, Okay,
we'll fix it. Has happened every time black and white.
Has nothing to do with who is new to the league,
who has been in the league before. It has always

(11:38):
been fixed. It is an established precedent of the league.
So the two things coming together, I get why they are, like,
you know, frustrating, and it wasn't your ideal scenario, Mayor,
but we clearly we do not have a rule allowed
for emergency pickups. We might add it, and I think
you should push to add it in the off seasoncause
I would spport it, but we don't currently have that rule,
so we can't just like make an exception for you,
and the illegal lineup would have been fixed regardless of

(11:59):
who it was gross who was facing It didn't benefit
the guy whose lineup was fixed because he's not even
in the playoff hunt.

Speaker 4 (12:05):
It was literally just, hey, this isn't fair too.

Speaker 3 (12:07):
It's just to help the guy behold, not to help him,
but to not be not punish him, Like, it's not
his fault that the guy did an illegal life. If
you were on the outside looking in, we would have
done the same thing to not punish you for some
other but it's not debatable. So so what's frustrating to
me about this whole evering is that there's no seemingly
no willingness to concede that this was not done to

(12:31):
personally attack you, right, Like, that's.

Speaker 1 (12:33):
Why I just if I had just put Emmanuel Class
on the IL and made my lineup illegal, but if
he had fixed it for me and give me give
me a slot back, you.

Speaker 3 (12:41):
Couldn't have put you couldn't have put him in the IL.
Fan tracks wouldn't have let you. It was because the
rule changed from week to week that it became il
like you literally wouldn't have had that option. The number
of ile slots literally changed overnight, which is why it
was set up that way, but went to illegal. It's
honestly maybe a flaw of fan Tracks's you know, design

(13:02):
that it allowed that to happen. And I really like
fan Tracks, but you know, maybe that's something that that
they shouldn't even have allowed to happen. But you you
couldn't have even done that if you'd wanted to. And
by the way, if you had.

Speaker 1 (13:14):
Me personally, or anyone in the league.

Speaker 3 (13:15):
Any anybody, and by the way, mare, if you had
done that, yes, he would have fixed it from being illegal.
He would have put Class A back in and you
still would have gotten a zero from him.

Speaker 4 (13:24):
So so even though.

Speaker 3 (13:26):
You couldn't have done that, now that I'm taking through
your question, yes, if you had done had an illegal lineup,
he would have fixed it. That fixing doesn't mean optimizing
it for the highest possible score and picking up players
for you. It just means making it so that you're
not getting a zero.

Speaker 4 (13:39):
And that's all that happened. And the last thing I'll
say before letting you kind of jump back.

Speaker 3 (13:43):
In is that I, uh, you know, I am telling
you this is not corrupt. The corruption is a really
strong word to throw out, and I think that's worth noting.
Like like having it be a decision that you didn't
like and that you would like to see the rule
changed or any of those things is totally valid, but
like corruption is like really strong. Our commissioner is not perfect.

(14:07):
He is sometimes a word that I won't say because
this is a family program and he's one of my
close friends. But you know, he's not perfect as a commissioner.
He is not bias start corrupt like he will. He
tries very He's a commissioner like fifteen different leagues, and
he puts a lot of time and effort into trying
to be as fair as possible. Like, you can disagree
with the decision, but there is no corruption here. And

(14:28):
the other thing that I know I said that was
the last thing. The other thing I'll say is you
are severely over You are overestimating how.

Speaker 4 (14:33):
Well everybody in this league knows each other.

Speaker 3 (14:34):
It's a lot of people that just like, oh hey,
a friend of a friend wanted to join. This is
not some like group of friends that you're the outsider
looking in. There's like three or four people in the
league that know each other. Everybody else was just kind
of picked up over the years. So that's what I
have to say about that.

Speaker 1 (14:48):
All right, I have one more piece of evidence, potentially
a smoking gun. I would say. Let me direct your
attention to March twenty seventh, at eleven forty one am. Okay,
when the commissioner of this league sent a draft recap
and season predictions. Okay, and let's see what he wrote

(15:10):
about my team. Now, maybe you're a conspiracy theorist, maybe not,
but let's see how you take this message that he
wrote about my team. Our newest member of the league
took over a team that basically gave up three years ago,
and yet that former owner still yelled at me for
kicking him out of the league. But that's a story
for another day. I loved how Mike approached the draft,
basically stockpiling certain positions and young players to wheel and

(15:32):
deal later in the season when injuries and desperation strikes
for the playoff contenders. Here we go. I see a
bright future for the Wastelanders, but I'd be shocked if
their fortunes can be flipped in twenty twenty five. Now,
is this a commissioner trying to make that prediction come
true and keep me out of the playoffs as he predicted,
because it looks like we have evidence from several months

(15:55):
ago where this is exactly what he wanted to happen,
and he's now helping it hot.

Speaker 4 (15:59):
What he wants to happen what he predicted to happen.

Speaker 2 (16:01):
Boys, boys, Mayor, you're the only person that would do that.
You're the only person who would write that message and
hang on to it and then try to flip it.
So you were right six months ago. You're You're it.
You're the only human being, I believe entirely on the planet.
So I just want to weigh in with that. And
I know, I name, I know worm's got a jet.

(16:22):
So I see both sides of this pretty well. I
think where it can look like, why is this one?
And this is thegether? I've had commissioners do odd ball things.
But I also think that you know you, you tend
to see attacks where there are none and all I
can list the other flaws of you and also where
uh you know, I mean, it's kind of and it's

(16:44):
such a weird experience whenever there's those one offs as
somebody that commissions a bunch of leaves, it's like, well, yeah,
you just kind of have to make the best decision
that you can. But above all else, why are you
playing in weekly points leagues? They suck? That's my That
is my overall judgment on this case.

Speaker 4 (16:59):
You know, it's fun.

Speaker 3 (17:00):
Mayor has specifically told me he really likes the format
of this league. It's it's like, it's, yeah, it's not
a true dynasty It's it's pretty deep keeper league though
with prospects involved, so it's.

Speaker 4 (17:08):
It's a pseudo dynasty league.

Speaker 3 (17:10):
It's one of my favorite leagues that I play, and
honestly because I really enjoy the format too. Also, Mayor
is still currently in the playoffs. Like so it's not
like he's been kicked out. He might not make the playoffs.
This is the last week of the regular season, but
he is. He's still currently in and and you know,
controls his own destiny here. But but yeah, I get
the initial like, WHOA, what's going on here? But then

(17:31):
once that was answered, I would think, you know, there
would be maybe less of a crash out here from
from Mayor and and I don't think you should quit
the league.

Speaker 4 (17:38):
I think it's a fun league.

Speaker 3 (17:39):
You want to embrace being the villain, fine, but I
don't think you are the villain. Most people that I've
talked to are really impressed with the turnaround you've made
with the league and would be happy to see you
in the playoffs. Also, the teams behind you sold off
at the deadline, so it's not like there's some like
push to get them in the playoffs. They don't really
care about making the playoffs anyway. So yeah, that's that's
where I stand. I think, I think it's crazy to

(18:00):
call this corruption, and uh, I think I think the
commenters like Kelly will agree with me.

Speaker 1 (18:08):
I disagree. I think it's hard to stay in the
league when you don't respect or trust the commissioner anymore,
and you see corrupt.

Speaker 4 (18:15):
But why don't you?

Speaker 3 (18:15):
Why don't you trust me when I tell you, Hey,
this isn't corruption.

Speaker 1 (18:18):
You're not the commission, you're not to want the power.

Speaker 3 (18:20):
But I tell I know the commission very well, and
I'm telling you this is not a corrupt decision.

Speaker 1 (18:25):
This got you fooled too.

Speaker 3 (18:27):
What I'm really confused by, and I do have to
hop after this. But why I'm really cofuse guys, Why
do I think the previous history of league is irrelevant?

Speaker 1 (18:33):
Because I wasn't in it then, how do I know?

Speaker 3 (18:35):
But you were in it earlier this year when there
was a change made to fix a little so you
have been in it when this has happened. It's been
established precedent in your timer. I guess I think that's relevant.

Speaker 1 (18:45):
There's no evidence of that.

Speaker 3 (18:47):
Okay, Well, anyways, it's not corruption or we love having
you in the league. You've impressed everybody with turnaround, the
worst roster I've ever seen, and.

Speaker 4 (18:57):
Kind of butter me up to keep me in the No,
it don't, so that's a genuine thought.

Speaker 3 (19:01):
Also, one thing I will say about your turnaround is
you were left cal Rally.

Speaker 4 (19:06):
This was not a shrewd pick up by you. You
were given cal Rally for one dollar.

Speaker 1 (19:11):
He's in the luck Coom. He's also one dollar cal Rally.
I don't know if that's going up next year, but
he's one dollar calra.

Speaker 4 (19:16):
Yeah, eventually it'll go up.

Speaker 3 (19:17):
I don't know if it's next year or not. But yeah,
we want to keep in the league. It's not corruption,
I hope you hear what I had to say, and
here with the commenter is what I'm hoping they'll say too.
But thank you for giving me one kind of send off. Here,
enjoy doing the show for the next couple of months
without me.

Speaker 4 (19:31):
I'll be listening.

Speaker 3 (19:32):
Kelly, Please don't ruin my lead in the two star
pitcher competition.

Speaker 2 (19:37):
Absolutely guarantee that I will.

Speaker 1 (19:40):
We'll smell you later and we'll take a break. Welcome
back in everyone. We got rid of Worm and we
can continue on with the show. Now it's now down
to a two person show. We're not going to be
stuck dealing with all of Worm's lies and corruption anymore.
And for regular listen to listeners of the show. For

(20:00):
this first video, we we typically call it rounding the basis,
So we have a number of topics, usually four, hence
the basis, and we kind of go around and talk
about sometimes the news notes and injuries or some other
segments we want to get to. We just wasted the
first segment on Worm and talking about his corrupt league,
and so now we'll continue with the remaining segments. And so, Kelly,

(20:21):
does that sound good to you? It may be Worm
is now that he's not here you can actually talk
a little bit more.

Speaker 2 (20:27):
Oh. I mean, I didn't know if I was just
in here for a little bit and then you were
just going to take over on your owns. But I think, yeah,
that was a really great, lively first base discussion. And
I hope the two of you feel better, and now
maybe you can stop messaging me about it, and I
look forward to talking baseball with you now.

Speaker 1 (20:45):
So well, it'll be fun. It'll be fun to see
what the commenters think. As I said, the people on
Twitter eighty five percent agree with me that it's actually
absolutely absurd. And it'll also be fun because the commenters
all season long have suspect did that warm and eye
just can't stand each other and uh lo and behold
it turns out there right and all right. So the

(21:07):
next segment I wanted to get into is one of
the favorite ones I like to talk about.

Speaker 2 (21:12):
It.

Speaker 1 (21:12):
I just call it are these players broken? And there's
a few players we can talk about here. I threw
into a couple, and I think you threw in one
or two two where there should they should a lot
of promise earlier in the season and now maybe not
so much. And so the first player I wanted to
talk about was Mackenzie Gore, and so I could just
toss it right back to you. I have a few

(21:34):
thoughts too, But what are your thoughts on the current
state of Mackenzie Gore given his recent implosion. I would
I would call it.

Speaker 2 (21:43):
Yeah, I wish that he'd like imploded a little bit.
So he's been terrible since All Star Break. I don't
know what happened over that time, but I wish he'd
imploded quickly and then had like two really good starts
so I could have flipped him in the league that
I have him in. But instead, you know, he's he
has been. He's been more than terrible. I mean, on
Tuesday against the Athletics, of all teams, three innings pitched,

(22:06):
eight runs, eight earned, Like I mean it is he
had a whip of in that game of four thirty three. Yeah,
I mean then that's yeah, And that is the worst
part because at least, you know, I can deal with
some terrible other things if you're just going to strike
people up. Yeah, know, he's been terrible. I hate giving Welsh,

(22:27):
you know, I hate giving Joe or Welsh credit on anything.
But Welsh did suggest trading him in like our last
bi loosl high and I thought he was crazy and
was like, now I'm going to hold on to him,
and yeah, I would in one of my leagues in
which I'm most competitive. Right now, I don't know what
to do with him, so he seems broken.

Speaker 1 (22:47):
Yeah, so I wanted to jump in on one of
the one of the you mentioned the word trade, which
is something that jumped out to me because I think
it was a couple of weeks ago on the cycle
we were talking about trade deadline candidates and we're where
different players could go and whether or not that would
impact their value, and Mackenzie Gore's name surprisingly came up
at the trade deadline. And you wouldn't think that a

(23:07):
rebuilding team like the Nationals would be interested in moving
a young, you know, seemingly very very good starting pitcher,
and but it's that his name floated in it, and
the Cubs, who you're a fan of, were one of
the teams interested. And so what I was wondering now,
because this implosion has kind of quickly followed that, did

(23:28):
the Nationals know something like did they kind of see
this coming behind the scenes and be like, hey, like
this really really good starters available if anybody wants to
overpay for him. And now it's like that maybe they
got caught helding the hot potato. But like, this is
also something Gore has done kind of throughout his career
and and I say career, even like his young professional
career when he was coming up. He's he's kind of

(23:50):
flashed this dominance and then fallen apart, and then flash
dominance and then falling apart, and so it just seems
to be part of the Mackenzie Gore experience. Yea, And yeah,
I don't know what to do at this point because yeah, I.

Speaker 2 (24:03):
Mean yeah, well, I mean, like even the one so
he's lost his last four. He's lost the only four
games he started since the All Star break, but like
the one game against Minnesota, he pitched five innings and
he only gave up one earned run and whatever, but
he walked six people, and it's like, you, these are
all signs. So yeah, when the clubs were looking at him,

(24:24):
I was like, Okay, like you know, if we can
get the first half back, cool, but I think that
they Yeah, my guess is that there's an injury that
either he's not disclosing or the Gnats were trying to
like get past and it maybe it may be minor,
but it's certainly causing a lot of issues. So yeah,
so in this case, I'm very glad. My dad was

(24:45):
all over wanting us to get me accord, and I
was like, yeah, if we get that first one, But
I don't know if he's going to be around for
the rest of the year.

Speaker 1 (24:53):
Yeah, I was listening to I think it was a
couple of days ago the CBS guys talked about him,
and they said that it's possible that, you know, he's
had mechanics issues in the past, and that he had
to go down to rookie Ball at one point to
kind of work on his mechanics. It could also be
a Haesostal's artist situation where he's just all of a
sudden tipping his pitches and everyone knows it but him.

Speaker 2 (25:13):
Yep.

Speaker 1 (25:14):
Yeah, it's it's like I said, it's something that he's
done before in his career, and it's kind of unfortunate
that it's happening this badly to the point where his
it's a very small sample size, but his second half
the ra is thirteen point two one. A lot of
that is the heavy lifting done by his most recent start,
whereas he pissed three innings in his era for that
game was twenty four, but even in July six point

(25:37):
seven five era, after kind of cruising through May and June. Yeah,
are you dropping them or do you just like bench him?
At this point?

Speaker 2 (25:48):
I think so. I mean, I think I don't know
what his home road splits are, but I unless it
is a cakewalk, and I'm not sure other than the Rockies,
I'm not really sure who who the cakewalk is anymore
because the it Suck seemed to be hitting a ton
of home runs all of a sudden. So yeah, I
right now, I think he's just I can't start him,
but I also can't drop him and have someone else

(26:10):
like kind of pick him up for free and then
have him turn back into something that I need. So no,
I'm just gonna I need to see like one or
two above average, two good stars if I'm gonna put
him back in.

Speaker 1 (26:23):
Yeah, I and his strike the strikeouts have been trending down,
like you said too, it's kind of like it's been
a pretty rapid implosion, but it's also kind of been
like there have been, you know, there have been signs
that this is coming. Yes, Yeah. The next player I
wanted to hit is Lawrence Butler, who I had mixed
feelings about coming into the season, and I still very
much have mixed feelings about but like more recently, I

(26:46):
have more concerns than mixed feelings about him, because it's
gotten pretty bad. And he also three of the A's
last four games have been against left handers, and he
has not started any of them, which is not good.
And the one game he did start against the rity,
he batted seventh. And he had previously most of the time,

(27:07):
not exclusively, but most of the time, but hitting at
the top of the lineup, and so even as recently
as July twenty seventh against the lefty he bat at second.
And so the fact that he's just like not even
in the lineup against lefties right now is concerning. And
the stats are concerning too. The batting average is down
to two thirty two. Expect the batting average of two
thirty two still has fifteen home runs and seventeen stolen bases,
But also that comes with a twenty eight point eight

(27:29):
percent strikeout rate, and if we look at some of
his splits he batted, so the first two months of
the season. His batting average was around two sixty, so
two fifty four in March and April to sixty two
in May, then in June it dropped to two thirty four,
July one seventy four, and then August. Obviously extremely small

(27:51):
sampleasize only four games one fifty four, and so currently
his first at batting average two fifty one, second batting
average one seventeen. Obviously it's one to two five. We
know the batting average is not everything, but those are
pretty concerning trends. So do do you have any more
or any other thoughts on Lawrence Butler and his recent
struggles other than the very surface level stats. I just

(28:13):
provided it as well A should call them.

Speaker 2 (28:16):
Yeah, I mean I think like as I'm looking at
it too, just he he's had fifteen more at bats
this year than all of last year, and like all
of his numbers are down like significantly. He's been caught
stealing five times. He wasn't caught at all last year
when he stole eighteen. So in this case, if it's
a shallower league, like I have no trouble dropping him
because honestly, like it's an outfielders you can find this

(28:39):
production kind of anywhere and just kind of grab the
hot bat and go. But you know, if if I
wish that I had let him go in one of
the leagues that I was in that I got knocked
out of our just ridiculously early the playoffs, mostly because
he just did nothing and and I was, you know,
and I was just left with this terrible batting average,

(28:59):
and you know, he homerd he had two homers in
that one game, and like, yay, but who was even
starting him by that point. So so yeah, so I
actually see him like, as you go toward a playoff,
wish he's he's a drop for me. I'm not. I
wouldn't worry about it.

Speaker 1 (29:14):
It's funny to say that because I'm in a shallow,
shallower league. It's only ten teams, but it's pretty deep lineups,
and it's also it's deep keeper and so you don't
really want to cut you know, potentially really good young
players loose because we keep ten players. You know, it's
borderline dynasty. But I consider cutting him today. It's daily lineups,

(29:37):
and well, we're going to talk about a player in
the next segment when we talk about our waivers and
streamers who I picked up in that league, and Lawrence
Butler was the player I considered dropping. I ended up
realizing that I had a player who was recently placed
on the IL, so I was able to use the
IL splot. But if I didn't have that iles but
I was looking long and hard at cutting Lawrence Butler.

(29:58):
Even if you look at his stackcast data last year,
you know, we like to say a lot of red,
like bat speed, sweet spot, hard hit, barrel percentage, averagex
of velocity, expected slugging, expected batting I respected WOVA all
well above average, so like eighty third percent out, you know,
mostly like right around at eighty mark. There's a couple
of sixty two's in there. If you look at twenty

(30:18):
twenty five, there's a lot of blue, and you know,
expected WELBA seventeenth percent percent expected batting average, fourteenth expected
slugg in twenty seventh. Average ex velocity is still fine.
Barrel hit hit hard or hard hit, and sweet spot
rate are all right around league average and not terrible,
but not as good as he was doing last year.

(30:39):
Bat speed's still good, squared up his way down and
then with K percentage like he's near the bottom the
league and so he's still a young hitter. It could
just be one of those chess matches of where you know,
the league has now adjusted to him and he needs
to adjust back. But it's not looking great right now.
And a team like the ain't the Athletics, who are
not They have like a decent lineup, but they're not

(31:01):
incredibly deep. The fact that they're just willing to sit
him down, it's pretty concerning.

Speaker 2 (31:06):
Yeah, for sure.

Speaker 1 (31:08):
Onto our next player, James Wood. I think you added
him to the sheets. So why don't you tell me
about James Wood and his struggles? Who's James Wood?

Speaker 2 (31:19):
Who is James Wood? I wonder if he's questioned his
existential being the last couple of weeks. Well, also in
our insiders league, so my outfield had Butler and Wood
in it. So in case you're wondering why I got
knocked out, that's where we start. But let me say
by you're not dropping James Wood. I do not care
what the lead I mean, unless it is a five
team league, like, just hang on to him. I'm not

(31:42):
necessarily worried about his underlying anything at this particular point.
I am worried about what he's going to do for
you in the playoffs, because I don't you know, sometimes
when they come out and they start to struggle, and
you it's hard when you're that young sometimes to like
turn that around. And you know, he's played in a

(32:03):
ton more games than last year, but his strikeouts are up.
And the other problem I have is his babub is
three twenty eight, which I mean that's not you know,
we only have like seventy nine games last year to
compare it to, and it was even higher than But
like for right now, I just yeah, I mean, he's

(32:23):
another one that it's like I kind of am gonna
set him a little bit more if I can, if
I have the room, and just kind of wait to
see if he heats back up, because right now that
is it is ugly. So yeah, the.

Speaker 1 (32:37):
Only thing is that in points leagues he does walk
a lot, so he's not completely burying you there, but
he is striking out a lot, which is burying you.

Speaker 2 (32:46):
Yeah, he hasn't homeward since July ninth.

Speaker 1 (32:49):
I didn't know that.

Speaker 2 (32:51):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (32:51):
Yeah, We've talked about his profile a lot on the show,
because especially the power profile, because there's a lot to
love about it in the sense that he sprays his
power everywhere, which is that's what you want. You don't
want like just a pole guy. He does go opposite field,
probably a little bit more than you would want as
someone like, you know, especially with a new age kind

(33:12):
of like pull and lift is what you want to
hear with these young power hitters. He just kind of
sprays it all over the field, which overall I'm fine with.
You know, that's you know, years ago, when you were
teaching young hitters how to hit, it was all about
you know, using the entire field and you know, being
able to go the other way with power. That's one
of the things that makes Aaron Judge so phenomenal is
that he's able to just control the strike zone and

(33:33):
just flip home runs to ride field, especially in that
Tea and China Ballpark. The James Wood stackcast data is
also very, very good. There's a lot of dark red now,
a lot of that. The heavy lifting there is probably
done by earlier in the season when he was so hot.
It's not necessarily updated to what is happening more recently.

(33:55):
But yeah, like I agree, Lawrence Butler is a borderline drop.
James Wood, you should not be dropped under any circumstances.
Even the the Nationals are not sitting him down. He's
still playing every day, even against left he's still batting second.
He's just like the heart of that lineup. They don't
have anything to play for, and they're just going to
let him work through this as they should.

Speaker 2 (34:15):
Yeah, I mean, he literally, he's just he's been eight
for sixty one since you all start break eight for
sixty one. Ain't gonna cut it. So yeah, no, you
don't cut him. You hang on. If he gets on
a hot streak, you put him, you put him in.
Otherwise you just kind of if it's like a five
outfielder league, like you play him and sort of just
hope for things to happen.

Speaker 1 (34:35):
Yeah, the July ninth home run thing is something I
didn't know that's interesting. And he only has two home runs.
He has twenty four horme runs on the season, but
only two cents July. I'm sorry, must have hit one
before July ninth, ye, whereas in April, May and June nine,
seven to six, and so a lot of that power
the first half of the season. But I do think he's

(34:56):
the kind of player who can and will turn this around.
But it might just be a situation where you play
matchups and sit him down for a week, and if
you're anything like me, as soon as you sit him,
he'll be fixed. And so that's exactly what you need
to do. I also in that we were in dueling
Fantasy prost leagues. We have like step multiple leagues where

(35:17):
that like run simultaneously and then we like meet in
the playoffs. I also had James Wood and was eliminated
in the playoffs. So maybe that's why the last player, sorry,
the last player I wanted to hit in are these
players broken? Is Jack Flaherty, And he hasn't had the
maybe the same level of struggles as these other three,
but he is kind of an enigma right now, and

(35:39):
I wanted to talk about him just because it's he's
been so interesting and he recently had a blow up start,
but also it's like he hasn't been consistently bad for
like a long enough stretch to kind of write him off.
And then I was also looking at I'll pull it
up here, I was looking at his already had it up.
I was looking at his stack cast page just to
kind of see what's been happening. Is there any kind

(36:02):
of pitch mix change, and you know, is one of
his pitches getting hit harder, his velocity down and anything
like that, And I didn't see anything looking at you know,
kind of like this year to last year, the four
seamer velocity, like the velocity of all his pitches are
about the same. The only real pitch mixed change is
he's throwing his knuckle curve more and his slider a

(36:23):
little bit less, but not like egregious numbers. It was
like twenty five, like twenty six, twenty three percent, and
now it's like flipped twenty nine to twenty two percent,
So noticeable difference, but not like egregious. And even so,
if you look at the batting average against all of
his pitches, last year's last year four seamer two forty
five bating average against this year two fifty two. Last

(36:44):
year's knuckle curve one sixty four, this year won seventy six.
Last year's slider to twenty two, this year two to
fifty nine. So there's a slight jump there, but he's
using a slider less and it doesn't feel like such
an egregious jump that you would like notice some of
these things. So I know, I added Jack Flaherty to
the sheet pretty late. You might not have had much
time to dive in, but do you have any thoughts

(37:04):
on the Jack Flaherty experience.

Speaker 2 (37:07):
Well, once you added him, I just kind of did
a cursory glance of like his fangrass page, just to
see where we were at, and like, the only thing
that pops out is like his home away splits our
significant with regard to e RA patters are batting two
ten against him at home, but two sixty three on
the road. So I'm not sure if that's necessarily predictive

(37:28):
of anything, but maybe you know, it's the Louis Severino,
the reverse Louis Severino treatment, where like, if he's home,
start pretty much with confidence. If he's away, then you
might play a little bit more match up. But now
I looked at him for the next segment with the
two starters and it was kind of that, well, I
don't know, it could be great, or are we going

(37:49):
to get one of the five runs? I mean, this
was against Minnesota, right after they dumped the whole like
their whole team, and I'm like, so you're not You're
up against basically a triple A squad, and he just
got sheld. So yeah, he's he's a mystery. I don't
know if he's broken, but he's certainly like injured in
our metaphor. I don't think he's injured in person.

Speaker 1 (38:09):
Yeah, and there's still one hundred and forty seven strikeouts,
one hundred and twenty innings. His earra is up to
four point five six, but all the expected numbers are
four ten, three sixty eight, three fifty eight, three ninety nine.
Whip is a little high at one twenty eight, but
also that he's done that in the past, it's kind
of been a thing. But the k rate is like
about the same swing. Strike rate is like still up
over his career or right around his career. Average hard

(38:31):
hit numbers are up a little bit, but like there's
no like like how in our previous segment I found
a smoking gun when you know, I found Worm's commissioner
has been conspiring against me since March. There's no smoking
gun in the Jack Flaherty profile that I see, unless
there's something that I'm missing. So, and I do think

(38:52):
they like going to Detroit has kind of like revitalized
his career, and so I'm fairly confident they're going to
kind of get him turned around and like I said before,
and then we can move on. It hasn't been like
a prolonged struggle like he's recently coming off a start
against the Twins like you mentioned, where he did he
went four and two thirds innings and gave up six runs,

(39:12):
five of them earned. But before that, he was coming
off of two quality starts where he had only given
up one run over twelve innings. Before that three innings,
three runs, and then you know, a few mixed bags,
a couple of quality starts. Then you go all the
way back to June eight runs against the Rays, right
after he allowed seven runs against the Reds. And so
he's gone through these periods where he's gone out of whack.

(39:35):
Given how some of the other bad starts have gone,
they've kind of come in two or threes. So he
just had one. Maybe don't start him this week so
while he works out all the kinks. But okay, next segment,
we'll go over to third base. I wanted to do
a bullpen check in whom and I did a little
bit of this heading into the trade down deadline and

(39:57):
then coming out of the trade deadline, just because this
was one of the wilder trade deadlines that I can remember,
not in the sense that like a ton of big
names removed, but a ton of players removed, especially a
ton of pitchers, especially a ton of relief pitchers, where
I don't recall like league wide the bullpens being this

(40:18):
wide open, especially like a lot of the situations that
were left behind, So you have like the perfect scenarios
where you know, the Phillies went out and acquired an
elite closer, so it was like perfect great team needed
a great closer, perfect match. Some of the other situations,
like the Yankees, we're still figuring out what's gonna happen
there because Definitelyiams is falling apart. And then a lot

(40:40):
of the situations that were left behind, there's like committees
or we don't know who the closer is. Maybe they
don't know who the closer is, and so I wanted
to go through some of them. We don't have to
go through like every scenario. But you on fantaspros dot com,
you do help update our closer depth chart. You're doing
a great job there, especially because that means I don't

(41:00):
have to do it, which I really appreciate. But uh,
you know, you updated every week, and so is there
anyone are there any are there any teams or players
that you specifically want to talk about? And then I
can I can kind of also run through the sheet
if you prefer that.

Speaker 2 (41:17):
Yeah. No, I was just gonna say with the A
I could not believe how many relievers were like traded,
and I deserve a raise for updating the Closer Report
the day after all of that went down, because I
was just like, I don't know, let's all guess, right.
But the Yankees, like kind of they did a thing
that I feel like some teams do, and particularly the
Yankees do a lot where you bring in all these players,

(41:38):
but you have no idea how you want to use them,
and and so then all of a sudden you're just like, Okay,
now I've got Ben Nirn, I've got Williams, and who's
gonna get what? And and a lot of times, really,
you know, there can be they can be a little fickle.
They can be a little fickle. So if they don't
know what their role is, then all of a sudden
it gets it gets a little hairy for them. And

(41:58):
they're professionals and they but I mean, how many times
have you seen someone who's just a lock down eighthan
and guy who cannot close to save his life. Like
it's just it's the leverage.

Speaker 1 (42:08):
And the option. How many times have you seen a
closer come in a game early and it's like, this
is not ninth inning? What are we doing here? Yeah?

Speaker 2 (42:15):
No, I mean it's a so yeah. So I feel
like between them and kind of and the padres to
some extent. I mean, Mason Miller blues first save but
then got the second one. You're just it's going to
take a minute, I think for them to sort it out.
But the Yankees are just definitely a bigger They're just
a bigger mess because they have too many people and
you have to trust that you know their manager is

(42:36):
going to know what he's doing, and that's a hard.

Speaker 1 (42:38):
Ask, especially for that manager. So some of these other
situations I'll run through real quick because I just look
as preparing for this segment, I was just looking at
our closer depth chart and just trying to piece together
what's going on in some of these situations, because I
would imagine in a lot of your leagues, if you
need saves, you were impact by the trade deadline in

(43:01):
some way and you're probably looking for a streamer closer
or potentially a closer for the rest of the season,
and so I'll just run through some of them. So
the Oriel situation, it looks like Keegan Aiken is the
closer maybe, but he also he got a save on Saturday,
August second. No one has had a save for the
Oiel since then, so we don't know if anything has changed,

(43:23):
but like it looks like he's the closer, maybe question mark.
The White Sox appear to be in a full blown committee.
I don't know. No one there has had to save
since Saturday, and the person who got the save on
Saturday was Jordan Leisure, but the Stephen Wilson got the
save before that, and so it sure looks like they're

(43:43):
in a full blown committee and also like not really
a team you want to chase for saves anyway. The
Athletics famously traded away Mason Miller for one of the
top prospects in baseball. Their top prospect they received it
was not a closer, and so they have a closer
opening because Mason Miller was their closer. It looks like
it's maybe Sean Nucombe for now, Like I don't know

(44:04):
ye see on the Red Sox earlier this year. I
think it was like a starter for the Red Sox
like earlier this season.

Speaker 2 (44:14):
Yeah, I don't know.

Speaker 1 (44:16):
He's kind of been all over the place.

Speaker 2 (44:18):
Yeah, yeah, I don't mind. Uh, topa in Minnesota, I
kind of I like his numbers. He was with the
Cubs for a while, I think, and uh, I can
see him picking up some saves because apparently they've decided
not to suck entirely. But yeah, no, I don't know
about Nucombe, but I'm not sure if I would be
sold on him.

Speaker 1 (44:38):
Yeah. I assumed that in Minnesota it was going to
be col Sands, but apparently not. Apparently. It seems like.

Speaker 2 (44:47):
I got to save on on Tuesday.

Speaker 1 (44:50):
So yeah, and I think col Sands that he pitched
in that game too, m hm, do you do do
he did? Yeah, but not in the ninth the Rangers,
I assumed it was going to continue to be Robert Garcia,
but now it looks like they might be moving more
to a committee with Phil Mayton. The Marlins I just

(45:10):
wrote down whatever, pretty similar to the White Sox. It's
like a committee, but also like even if you know,
if they had a lockdown closer. It's he would be
worth rostering because even though it's a bad team, you
could still probably get a handful of saves. I'm not
chasing a committee on the Marlins and trying to trying
to get two saves here and there. Yeah, And then

(45:33):
other teams that also look like that have committees Cardinals, Diamondbacks,
and then also the Dodgers is probably the most fascinating
one that it sure looks like the Dodgers are a committee,
but also like, I don't know what's going on there.
I actually the most recent not save opportunity, but the
most recent picture to get a save for the Dodgers

(45:54):
is Ben Casparius, who I actually still roster on a
points league, like a weekly points league. I picked him
up a long time ago as a sparp, as someone
to just put in my reliever spot when he was
like starting, and I just like haven't needed that roster spot.
I haven't dropped him, and I might have the Dodgers
closer now what's going on? But I think VESSI I

(46:16):
got the last opportunity, but also like didn't converted. He
blew the save and lost, and so it could be
Alex Vessio and Casparius Blake, Trinan rock Stewart. They also
still have Alexiitiaz. It doesn't seem like he's ready to
take that role, but ye. And then they have like
a million pictures on the IL. We we thought coming
into the league or in the season, they could not

(46:38):
possibly have any more pictures or haven't you know, more
than enough? But they have like seven relievers on the
IL and I think five of them have saves this year. Yeah, yeah,
any any additional thoughts.

Speaker 2 (46:53):
On those, No, just the Dodgers are kind of in
a similar They're they're kind of in a similar position,
but like backwards. So like the Yankees have all these
people who can close, and the Dodgers have all these
people that are like, we're going to see if you
can close. So yeah, I don't know, it's that those
are messy for sure.

Speaker 1 (47:11):
Yeah. And even the Dodgers interesting only one converted save
over the last week, which is interesting.

Speaker 2 (47:19):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (47:19):
All right, moving on to our final segment before we
wrap up, this first video of the cycle, Real or
Not Real, which I really enjoy. And so just to
kind of give you the way I like to do
this game. I don't like to do a binary of
you know, we look at it mostly it's looking at
a player who's breaking out or has had a sustained

(47:40):
run of success and trying to determine is this breakout
real or not real. I don't like to have it
so black and white, so I like to think of
it as more of like one of those surveys you
get where it's like strongly agree agree, neither agree nor
disagree disagree strongly disagree. So we have a scale for
real not real, and so does that work for you?

Speaker 2 (48:02):
Yep? Let's do it all right.

Speaker 1 (48:05):
First up, he is just coming off flirting with a
no hitter, Gavin Williams, who has been on a bit
of a heater. I can give a little bit more context,
but i'll throw ill talk with you first. Real or
not real Gavin Williams.

Speaker 2 (48:20):
Oh he is? Uh, that is a question. I saw
him on here and I was like, I would say he.

Speaker 1 (48:28):
Was one of the first names I wrote down this week.

Speaker 2 (48:30):
Yeah. No, I mean yeah, I'm gonna go with and
I do not want to. I'm not going to do
this for all of them, I swear, but I live
in neutral zone here. His area is three point one seven,
his X area is four point one seven. His fifth
is four point four to four, but his x FIP
is four point two. I mean, you're hanging out in

(48:50):
that area. And also he is walking more people this
year than like than last year, by a pretty wide amount,
and he's striking out exactly the same number of people.
And so those things to me, coupled with the idea
that he can just blow up. He can single handedly
kill your whip. And I know that because I have
rostered him and heprily all season and it's like, well, yeah,

(49:13):
these these these are good. But so I feel like
he's very matchup dependent. And not that I would have
started him against the MutS, but I did start him
against the Athletics a couple of weeks ago and he
was fantastic. So that's yeah, he's to me, he's matchup dependent.
I'm not going to agree or disagree because I think
I think he's the picture he is, but his numbers
are weird.

Speaker 1 (49:35):
Yeah, I I lean, I'm right there with you. I
lean slightly disagree, although I do. Look at I'm a
sucker for pitch mix. I love looking at a guy
and seeing like, oh we got a new pitch here.
Let's see what's happening. He has added a sweeper, and now,
for context, it looks like he threw a slider last

(49:56):
year and for a sweeper this year, So it really
is just a slight change in his slider and a
change in designation. It's not like he completely added a sweeper.
But I will say last year he threw at his
slider eleven percent of the time, and he's throwing his
sweeper over twenty percent of the time, so he is
he has changed the pitch and he's throwing it more
often and opponents are only batting one to seventy five

(50:16):
against it. So that perks my ears up a little bit,
and I get excited about that. However, I'm seeing a
lot of saying things you're seeing, and he has been
on a pretty sustained long run after a rough start
to the season, so in April over five, but since
then May three point two, eight, June two point two, seven,
July three point oh three, and then through fourteen to

(50:39):
two thirds innings in August zero point six to one,
so that he has a one point three ERA in
the second half. So I don't know, I don't know
what to make of this. I feel like I've been
looking at his pitching props like every five days and
a lot of times just stay in the way. You know.
For earlier in the season, I was kind of fading them,
and then I was getting burned, and now I'm just like,

(51:00):
you know what, I don't I'm not messing around with
this guy's numbers. And that's kind of how I feel
in fantasy too. There are some things to be excited about.
The underlying numbers are saying you should be worried about this,
and I'd be worried about this.

Speaker 2 (51:14):
And so yeah, his yeah, his if you're going to
bet him, like go with his walks and go over.
Like strikeouts are just he can strike out eleven and
he can strike out two. I mean it's it's it's
a weird he's a weird profile. And so yeah, I
say neutral is the way to roll with him.

Speaker 1 (51:34):
Yeah, I will say he's a former first round pick,
so there is some prospect pedigree there. He's dealt with
some injuries in the past, and so this he's still
he's only twenty six years old, and so there could
be some of this, like he's still on the younger
end of a you know, starting pitcher's career. Only through
seventy six innings last year, eighty two innings the year before,

(51:55):
at least in the majors, and so I don't know.
It could just be he's figuring it out and becoming
a big league pitcher. But also for a pitcher who
is currently striking out less than a batter printing. Although
the actual K percentage twenty three point four percent is
you know, it's fine, like you said, for that whip
and for that kind of unpredictable nature of the Gavin

(52:19):
Williams experience, I'm probably you know, if this was a
month ago, I would say he's a cell high. But
we're probably beyond the trade deadline in most leagues, and
so it's kind of hard to trade him. If you can,
I would, but I would imagine that by I'll admit,
you know, the heading into the second week of August,
your trade deadline is probably passed, although I'm in at

(52:41):
least one league where it hasn't. All right, next name,
you added Cade Horton, so I'll toss it immediately to you.
For Kate Horton, really or.

Speaker 2 (52:48):
Not really well, see, as a clubs fan, I'm really
wondering because he has had a really nice run here
in the last little bit. I of course did not
pull up his gamelog, But like, I am concerned about
a lot of other things, one of which is just
I mean, he was striking out you know, double dishit

(53:11):
players in the miners, like it was twenty seven percent,
thirty percent, whatever, and he is at eighteen percent in
the majors, and that concerns me significantly. But he has
one well below average and he but he has won
his last three games, and against your Red Sox he
went six and two thirds, gave up two hits and
no runs. You know. So it's it's kind of the

(53:34):
how long or how do we feel about a young
guy who doesn't seem to be striking out a lot
of people, but he has the background that he used
to or that he did in the minors, So like,
is that going to show up? Is he protecting his
arm to not you know, have to have tim John quickly?
I mean, like I just don't know. That's where I'm at,
which is why I added him, because I want you

(53:55):
to tell me.

Speaker 1 (53:56):
Yeah, so I roster him in that league I was
just messing before, where it's ten teams but pretty deep
rosters and I've been okay with the experience. You know,
I like a Kate Horton in that league. It's kind
of easier to be okay with him because I have
probably like fourteen pitchers and so he's just like one
of my guys. So as long as he's not actively
destroying me, I'm happy. Yeah, he's another one three point

(54:18):
one ADRA, and then the FIP and everything else three
point nine to one, Xtra four point four to one,
Sierra four point four six, XCRA four point twenty seven.
And then looking at his stat cast, which is difficult
to do. Fastball, that's interesting. He throws his fastball fifty

(54:40):
percent of the time and it's got a decent velocity
ninety five point seven, but opponents are batting three thirteen
against it, which is kind of interesting that the pitch
you throw more often than any other has a very
good batting average against. But all of his other pitches
sweeper two oh three against change up, he only throws
thirty percent of the time, one await, curveball eleven point

(55:02):
three percent of time to twelve, So maybe all of
those pitches just really play well off his fastball, and
he's just like showing his fastball as much as he
can to set up those other pitches. But that is interesting.
He's put away percentages fourteen point three percent on his fastball,
which is lower than any of us have three pitches.
So maybe just stop throwing fastball as much and see

(55:23):
if you can improve that mix. Yeah, the strikeouts are concerning,
you know, that's the one part of the experience. I've
not been enjoining. Like he said, eighteen percent k rate,
which per nine innings is six point sixty nine, which
is bad, especially for someone like you said, who struck
out a ton of a ton of batters in the minors.

(55:48):
I didn't realize it was just that low. I hadn't
been looking like closely enough at the k the k
rate and the swinging strike rate is also like lower
than it's ever been. It's a that's an interesting name.
Thanks for putting in there, especially when we don't know
did you did you give an answer agreed, not disagree,
or do you just toss it to me?

Speaker 2 (56:07):
I just kind of toss it to you. I mean
I am inclined to agree because I am a Cubs fan,
not strongly agree, just to agree where I feel like
I feel like they will eventually that he can figure
out the right pitch mix to up that k rate,
just because again of what it looked like in the miners.
So it's like, you know, maybe he just his fastball
played better there, and babley hitters are obviously going to

(56:30):
tee off on it if they can, so as he
gets used to it, maybe he'll come up with that.
So I'm going to agree that he's the real thing,
but I'm also a homer, so who knows.

Speaker 1 (56:41):
I do agree as well. I would have definitely said
agree leading into this conversation. Now I've gone a little
bit back closer to neither agree or disagree, just because
I just saw how bad that k rate is. But again,
he's another pitcher of first round that degree, only a
few years into his major league career, had a ton
of success in the minor leagues, and so I'm inclined

(57:04):
to believe that he's the real deal and we're seeing
his development in real time. But what about Andrew Vaughn.

Speaker 2 (57:14):
I just threw Andrew Vaughn on here because I, well, yeah,
sort of, and also that I mean I rostered him
over and over and over again when he was with
the White Sox because I like, his numbers to me
were they They should be better, right, And so I
guess my question is just, uh, you know, we've we
talked earlier in the season when I was guessed I

(57:34):
guess here and about how freeing it must be to
escape the White Sox and what you know, having to
play there every day and the dregs of just being
like everything is awful all the time. So, like, is
it real that he's gone to the Brewers and just
kind of like lit it up. And obviously he's on

(57:55):
a pace he probably can't keep up. But this is
way more the guy that I thought I was drafting,
you know, a couple of years ago.

Speaker 1 (58:05):
Yeah, let me pull up his number. Wow, his numbers
since going to the Brewers, so twenty two games betting
three seventy seven with four home runs after go ahead.

Speaker 2 (58:22):
Oh no, I was just agree. I'm like, yeah, the
numbers are sure. Yeah.

Speaker 1 (58:26):
And then in twice as many games forty eight games
with the White Sox bet one eighty nine with a
twenty two point three p K. Right, he's dropped that
down to thirteen. He had eight home runs, so twice
as many games for its many home runs. But like
everything else, is just so much worse. Yeah, yeah, yeah,
credit to the Brewers, But do you think it's legit

(58:50):
and it's gonna continue.

Speaker 2 (58:53):
What I will say is like his his walk rate
has kind of you know, it's not great, it's SIT's
right about that six percent, but it's pretty stabilized. So
I don't I think I will agree with where he's
currently at. Not that he's going to keep us up
forever and always, but like, I think the change is
going to help him be, like I said, much closer

(59:15):
to who everyone kind of thought he was going to be.
But so I will agree for the rest of twenty
twenty five and then be like, do not overdraft him
in twenty twenty six.

Speaker 1 (59:23):
So I will say the bad at BAAL data looks
very good, even you know, for the full season. So
even though some of those numbers of the White Sox
are not great, very interesting. I don't know if I
can get there. I uh, I feel like I want

(59:46):
to lean. It's it's as interesting that we keep picking
first round picks because he's a he's a he's a
further removed first round pick. He's a pre COVID first
round pick, if you can imagine. But I just feel,
like, like you said, someone we talk about every year, and
it's hard to kind of get there when I like,
I've just not enjoyed the andrewbaun experience in the past,
and I've just like watched him be overdrafted. I tend

(01:00:09):
to lean somewhat disagree on Andrew Bughn, even though I
am surprised to see how good the batball data looks,
because it looks very good, which is the only thing
giving me plausive that was what I was expecting to
see when I pulled it up. I would have been like, yeah,
I'm out. But that I'm like, all right, all right,
I see why and Drew on. Let's close it out

(01:00:31):
with Trevor Rodgers, who has been a fascinating one. He
was part of a fascinating trade when the Orioles acquired him,
which I didn't really understand that trade at the time.
Still not sure I do, but at least for now
it looks like maybe they're getting some return out of
trade because he's been really good for pretty much the
entire season, but especially of late. So what about Trevor
Rodgers real or not real?

Speaker 2 (01:00:54):
Yeah? So, I mean I have just one quick story
was I drafted him. I drafted him in twenty twenty
one when he had his just phenomenal year, right, like,
and I thought that I had my Clayton Kershaw lefty
pitcher obsession like I had by the next generation of that.
Ye then yeah, and I remember the next year he
came out and like, I was so excited to watch

(01:01:14):
him pitch, and they talked about like I think his
grandma died or something, and like he like he because
he'd been away from the team for a while and
all it looked like he just wasn't he was again broken,
Like if we had had this, I would have put
him under broken. Players have been like, yeah, I don't know,
he's done. So I am inclined to agree that that
he's back, just because his numbers have kind of bounced

(01:01:39):
back to the range that they were in in twenty
twenty one. So his striker outr rate is much lower,
but his walk rate is also significantly lower. So yeah,
I mean as possible, he you know, he's just figured
out the pitcher that he's going to be, and once
they do that, sometimes they really can stay solid for
a little while. So I will agree, not strongly disagree.

Speaker 1 (01:02:02):
I think I'm going to disagree, not strongly, but I
think I'm going to somewhat disagree. See also a first
round pick. He is look at US four for four
first round picks. Yeah, I was in the same boat.
I had him in Dynasty and I was pretty excited
because he looked really, really good and he was also

(01:02:23):
striking out a ton. So back in twenty twenty one,
his caper nine is ten point six two in his
strike car is twenty eight point five, and you were like, Wow,
this guy not only does he look really good, but
he's also striking out a ton, and so like, that's
exactly what I want for a twenty three year old
starter in my Dynasty league. And then twenty twenty two happened,
and then he was hurt, and then we just kind

(01:02:46):
of haven't seen much of it since, and here we
are where he's having this really interesting year. Last year
was not good. Four point nine two eera, according to
was his aspected numbers. Looks like a lot of that
was earned, and it was kind of all over the place.
Ninety seven strikeouts one hundred twenty four innings, so the
k rate was way down, only seven strikeouts per nine

(01:03:09):
and seventeen point three percent k rate. This year it's
up to twenty two point eight k rate is still
not created at seven point eight, but like you said,
the whip way down, which is kind of how he's
doing all this. But even when you look at his
era and his expected era numbers, they're pretty wildly different.
So one point four to four era, I think we

(01:03:29):
can all agree he's not in one point one and
a half. Ur guy FIP two point five to seven.
I think even that would be a little generous x
FIP three sixty two. Now we're getting a little bit
closer where I'm thinking Sierra three point seven six, then
XCRA three point twenty five, and so some of the suspect
the numbers think this era is coming up two runs.

(01:03:50):
A lot of that is because of the strikeouts, because
they're you know, they're building in some bad luck. You know.
One of the reasons, even though we're so obsessed with
strikeouts for fantasy, because it can counts a lot towards uh,
you know, fantasy stats. The other reason analysts really like
strikeouts is because it eliminates bad luck. And so one
of the not to get all philosophical on, you know,

(01:04:12):
fantasy and real life baseball here. But like one of
the one of the trends of why baseball has moved
away from the Greg Maddox is not that you know,
he's a bad example, because he was amazing, but like
those like like a Derek Low type of pitcher who
was just like really good but like heavy sinker pitch
to contact every now and then they would have like

(01:04:32):
a really dead of a real deat of a start
and it was because of like, uh, you know, babeb
you know, bato balls in play and just kind of
getting unlucky. And that's why a lot of times, you know,
you you want those true outcome strikeouts because you can't
get unlucky on the strikeouts and let's you know, you
throw a wild pitch. And for Trevor Rodgers right now,

(01:04:54):
his babbeb is two twelve, and so he's not striking
out anyone, and he's getting very lucky on bat at balls. Now,
some of that that has earned luck because you're you know,
you're generating weak contact and I've already talked way too
long about this, but and he's also not allowing any
home runs. His home run to five ball right is
three point three percent, which is like amazingly good, and

(01:05:14):
so it feels like there's some aggression coming here, just
because even if he's really really good and he's this good,
he can continue to be this good and he's going
to get unlucky just because of how like the law
of large numbers works. And so I leen disagree just
because I want to see more strikeouts. But I have
been a fan of his for a long time, and
so I'm hoping he can turn it around, although he

(01:05:35):
does pitch for the Orioles now, and so I don't
want worm to be happy. There is maybe I don't
want him to be good.

Speaker 2 (01:05:42):
Yeah, and I'll just also, oh sorry, I will just
also add that I think that, you know, I'll take
an expected area of three point two five all day
in fantasy. Like I'm like, that doesn't scare me yet.
It's going to have to like come up a little bit,
but I'm still like, if that's where we're going to say,
that's fine with me, given at this point in the

(01:06:02):
season and that everyone picked him up off waivers.

Speaker 1 (01:06:05):
So yeah, the only problem is that if he finishes
with a three point twenty five v RA, it means
the rest of the way his ra was like five, great.

Speaker 2 (01:06:13):
Yeah, that's what I said. It was like, he has
to it'll correct. But he also doesn't have enough innings
that like, it has to be significant, I think to
get there, like if you had you know, if you
had a one point whatever, and he was supposed to
end up with that over a course of you know,
I'm like, well then it's going to get hit quickly.
But yeah, so I'm not. I'm fine with him for
the rest of the season for sure.

Speaker 1 (01:06:32):
All right, let's wrap it up there for Kelly Kirby,
I'm like mayor, and make sure you check out the
next video for the cycle, which is going to be
focused on waivers and streamers, you know, waivers and starting pitchers.
That's going to be kind of the format of the
show going forward the rest of the year because we
don't really have trades to talk about it anymore. Before

(01:06:53):
it was three videos with you know, talk about trades
in the middle. Now it's going to be more of
rounding the basis and different topics like this breakdown, you know,
more of the macro level topics and news. And then
the second video is gonna be waivers and talk about
picture's history. For next week, so make sure to check
out that. Once again, for Kelly Kirby, I am Mike Mayor.
This has been the cycle and thank you for stopping by.

Speaker 3 (01:07:14):
Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Baseball podcast.
If you love the show, the best freeway to support
us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts
or Spotify. Follow us on x, Instagram, and TikTok at
Fantasy Pros, and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube
dot com slash Fantasy Pros MLB

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