Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:05):
Welcome and everybody to Fantasy pros MLB. It's time to
talk some trades. It's me joeyp Jo Pi's Apia with me.
Of course is the Welsh, and of course sometimes we
like to buy players just on principle. We've done that
a few times. Last week we talked about Corey Sieger.
But it's not just the veterans. Sometimes it's the youth
of America as well. We get spoiled with these prospects
when they don't hit right away. We're like Veruka in
(00:28):
Willy Wonka. I want it now. Father. You can't always
have what you want any no. I brought up a
prospect and I wanted to hit five hundred right away.
It doesn't happen that way. But if you're patient, perhaps
you get that Nick Kurtz bounce, and we both want
that out of Roman Anthony. Roman Anthony has been struggle
bus at the big league so far, hitting one twenty
(00:49):
eight with a five sixty two OPS. But let's not
forget at Triple A this year he was hitting two
eighty eight with a nine to fourteen OPS. And he's
a really good hitter. So once again, well she comes
down to probably folks might have either drafted and stashed
this guy, spent a lot of fab on this guy.
They haven't gotten results. The pressure is on, and maybe
(01:10):
all of a sudden there's a window to buy when
somebody's been too impatient with Roman Anthony. I think there
is that window, and I want them on my team
still because I believe in Roman Anthony and I believe
in where they're hitting him in the order. What say
you to buying low on a big prospect in baseball
who's now with the big club.
Speaker 2 (01:25):
I do think there's a justification to end up doing it.
We're looking at the profile. Fifteen percent barrel rate is
really great. The sample size is still low. You know,
we're like under fifty eight bats, but in that time
great barrel, solid hard hit rate average EVS over ninety one,
which is really good. Strikeouts, you know, they've been a
(01:45):
little bit of a problem. One of the things that
really jumps out to you is the way that he's walking.
Though he's getting on basis an eighteen percent walk rate,
dude has walked in five straight games and has what
is that seven walks in his last five games, So
I mean he's like, those are the things that are
going to have pitchers start to adjust to you and
(02:05):
change to you. They're not getting him to chase in
certain ways. And then you add that to a profile
that's like, well, you know, there's some big, hard hitting
stuff in his game. He's underperforming against fastballs, which I
think he can bounce back on. I think there's kind
of a second half buy for Roman Anthony. We don't
know what this team is going to look like. If
they dismantle any more pieces, maybe he can move up.
Speaker 1 (02:25):
In the order.
Speaker 2 (02:26):
It's weird to go and buy a post hype prospect
who's struggling, but in a deeper league. I do think
it could be kind of a sneaky play to get
him involved. Dynasty's are kind of a whole nother discussion.
I also think he's a decent buy in Dynasty, but
I don't think there's really anything that's come off of
his value in redraft. You probably have a lot of
people deciding maybe I should cut him at this point,
(02:47):
and I think there is a definite bounce back that's
in his future.
Speaker 1 (02:51):
Speaking of Dynasty buys, what a perfect segue. Well, if
you're such a professional, look at that. Christian Campbell, the
teammate or was teammate at certain times of the year.
Here of a Roman Anthony Christian Campbell got sent out. Look,
he was brilliant in April, awful in May, get sent
down in June. It sounds like a song. I don't know,
but let's not forget in the minor leagues and one
hundred and thirty nine games he hit three twenty seven,
(03:13):
four forty with a five to forty nine, slugging a
nine to eighty nine. Oh ps, he's a really good hitter.
The league adjusted to him, he didn't adjust back. My
guess is Welsh. The normal pattern of Christian Campbell goes
to triple A. You know, maybe after the All Star
break gets another shot here and that second time around
is going to be much better. So in redraft leagues,
I'm sure he's been dropped in a lot of leagues,
but in deeper ones may be held on to. I
(03:34):
would look to pry him away, hoping that August and
September are better months for Christian Campbell, because don't forget,
the Red Sox made a financial investment in this kid.
They extended him. Follow the money. It means they believe
in him. Injuries could happen at any moment too where
Campbell gets another shot. But I do think leaving him
in triple A for at least a couple weeks to
get right is a great idea, and I think he
will get right based on the kind of player he is.
(03:55):
So whether it's redraft in deeper leagues or even dynasty leagues,
I think Christian Campbell right now, for me personally, this
is when you buy because I think the profile is
still really good and I think the upside is still there.
Speaker 2 (04:06):
Secret sauce in dynasty. Not all dynasty leagues, you know,
work like this, But if you're in a league where
you got just anxious owners and stuff like that, that
you have this great prospect who struggles and this isn't
like the Roman Anthony one. This is he was up
up and then when sent down, it's a prime opportunity
to see if you can go and get that and
you can go and buy on him. It doesn't always
work because you got you know, really savvy owners that nope,
(04:28):
not willing to knowing prospects take some time, but like
I'm in complete agreement on this one. He was Minor
League Player of the Month in April. Hit two eighty seven,
Like he showed off this really good ability to hit
early on, and then he fell into some slumps while
they were having him move his position. He had you know,
not to be ruffield. Ever's in this and like you
don't do it in season, but you know, there was
(04:49):
just a lot this team was asking of him. He
struggled with the secondary stuff against like breaking and off
speed pitches. He was kind of a fastball hitter. I
think they're gonna retool, get the confidence back up. This
is a guy that you know made the team. He
succeeded early and then he struggled. They're going to let
him reset, get the positional stuff maybe every single day.
His big focus doesn't need to be playing some other position.
(05:11):
They're going to clear out some roster space on here,
and none of that actually matters for Dynasty. That's all
just conjecture of this season. What a great situation you
can be in if you kind of stink a little bit.
Is like, if you have a great team, there's a
high team that is, you know, making a playoff push,
and you are maybe building or playing for next year,
and they have Campbell, it's a perfect opportunity to sell
(05:34):
some pieces that help someone now buy on Campbell to
an owner that's frustrated. There's just a lot of a
lot of pieces in there of why a trade can
make sense, or at least why you can do some
exploratory looking at Christian Campbell in Dynasty.
Speaker 1 (05:47):
A quick correction before the YouTube comments come out of
the woodwork. He was Rookie of the Year in April,
not Minor League player of April. So I hear you, Yeah,
I see how he says. It's okay. I don't apologize.
I'm fluent in Welsh. Okay, some people still are learning
the language. I have my dual lingos and for Spanish.
Speaker 2 (06:05):
I was thinking he was the Minor League player of
the year last year and all of baseball. That got
into my brain here, yes.
Speaker 1 (06:14):
Mind it in there. I love it all right. One
more thing you should combine into your brain is the
performance of Edward Cabrera the last two months, because it's
been awesome. As bad as it was in April, where
he had a seven four to two ERA, if you
go look at the month of May, in five starts,
he was two and zero with twenty eight strikeouts and
eight walks, a two ERA and a one point one
nine whip so far in June over three starts, thirteen innings,
(06:35):
fifteen strikeouts, seven walks, a two seven five ERA. Basically
since April he's been a two point five ERA pitcher.
And there's a chance Edward Cabrera could end up somewhere else.
I know he's still controllable, but the Marlins are the Marlins.
They don't make a lot of good decisions, and at
any point Edward Cabrera could be somebody that another team
is looking at. But regardless, Welsh, this turnaround has been
(06:56):
exquisite and I think he is still a guy you
could probably buy, considering his ERA is sitting at three
eight one. Yeah, he's been really good the last couple
of months, But I wonder if fantasy managers are even
noticing sometimes because the negativity always attached with Cabrera. To me,
this is the perfect sneaky purchase right now while the
last six seven starts have been really great for him,
(07:16):
and who knows if he ends up on a contending team,
how goold he could be.
Speaker 2 (07:19):
I'd really love him if he was on another team.
I don't know if I'm as confident as you in
buying him in a world that speculates he's gonna be
like Sandy I think is going to get traded regardless
of what they're telling us right now. Thanks, Andy's gonna
get moved. That gives me a little bit more confidence.
I'm just not sure Edward Cabrera does. That doesn't mean
like what he's not doing isn't you know, solid like
he is putting up like two fantastic months. One thing
(07:42):
that's really weird about the Marlins of noticing it seems
like there's some like organizational change because you had these guys.
You had Sandy al Contra, who's like a big, primary,
high usage change up guy, and you had Cabrera last
year who threw his change up thirty three percent of
the time number one pitch. It's still his number one pitch,
but the usage is down to twenty four. So what
I'm saying is you got these guys with these great
(08:02):
changeups that they're lowering the usages of which I don't
understand why. It has made him a little bit Edward
Cabrera a little bit more successful this year, higher with
rates on his curveball and slider as those look like
at least his slider usage has gone way up curve
is about the same. I guess what I'm getting at
is it seems like there might be a little bit
of an organizational like pitching change, and I wonder the
(08:24):
long term effects of that. I just don't want to
edit Cabrera with the Marlins. I'm cool with buying him
because I think his name value, like you said, is
pretty pretty low right now, and he's performing at a
high clip. I would love it if he was on
another team. I'm just not sold that's going to happen.
But you know, if he can be had for kind
of next to nothing because of his team context, we're there.
But long term, I have some questions about Cabrera, all right.
Speaker 1 (08:45):
Before we get to the guys to sell, don't forget
to use the trade analyzer. If you want to instantly
evaluate trades and how they benefit your team, make sure
you're using the trade analyzes are only available at Fantasy
Pros Baseball My Playbook or Fantasypros dot Com slash MLB
My Playbook. The Trade Analot is the tool you need
to make inform trade decisions, So download the Fantasy Baseball
Might Playbook app wherever you get your apps, and use
(09:06):
the trade analyzer. In all of your deals today sell high.
The first one, again is more of a principal thing.
I love the player. I know Welsh does too. Jeremy
Penney has had a great season, hitting three twenty six
on the year, and over his last thirty games he's
hitting over three sixty. I just think that's gonna come
back down to earth a little bit. I don't think
he's a three to sixty hitter necessarily, but it's been
(09:27):
a great run for him. Regardless. I'm not selling him
for nothing, Welsh, but looking at right now where he
is in terms of trajectory, do I think he's gonna
slug five sixty six like he has over the last
thirty days. I don't know about that. I think that
maybe we get a little bit of a letdown here,
especially the longer Alvarez is not in that lineup, the
less protection there is. I think eventually people start looking
(09:48):
at pana is, let's not let that guy beat us,
and I think things might come down to earth. So again,
this is just a matter of regression, not trying to
give him away, but this is his peak value, So
on principle, I'm at least shopping him to see what
I might be able to bring back from my squad.
Speaker 2 (10:02):
This is a tough one for me because I don't
disagree with what you're saying. I do not believe he's
gonna end the year as a three thirty hitter and
he's just gonna keep building and building. I think this
regret regression is like it's gonna come in right.
Speaker 1 (10:16):
But my pitching staff sure, but what does regression look like?
Speaker 2 (10:21):
Sometime regression looks like complete failure, and sometimes regression is
just tiny little bitty bits and it doesn't really affect.
So my point is, is the number one ward shortstop,
his name value is really high. If somebody wants to
pay for him as this three almost thirty hitter and
you know he's gonna hit twenty five and he's gonna
(10:42):
steal thirty and he's gonna be a second round player,
and someone wants to pay at a really, really high cost,
I am gonna listen. But the idea to trade him
because he's gonna regress makes him less valuable. I just
don't think the reg I don't think the regression is
going to decimate the awesome value in the production you're
gonna get. So if it's like Jeremy Paani. I'll give
(11:03):
you a little bit more for him. I'm trying to
think of like good proper names and trades. I just
don't think regardless of how valuable he is in real baseball,
it's like top five in war in Baseball, number one
shortstop war type with Bobby Wait Junior. He's incredible. I
just don't know the trade numbers that are gonna come
your way are gonna make sense regardless of whatever that
regression looks like, because you know his hitting profile.
Speaker 1 (11:26):
It's just better across the board.
Speaker 2 (11:27):
He's striking out less, he's walking more, he's making higher
quality of contact. He's hitting over three hundred against breaking
and ospeed pitches, and he is pulling the ball a
little bit more. So that regression might be he doesn't
hit three thirty, but he hits two ninety, and two
ninety is still really, really valuable. So I got to
get a haul if I'm gonna consider Jamie Penia. So
I'm pushing back on this one kind of on my principle,
(11:48):
but it makes sense.
Speaker 1 (11:50):
You're sevninety, He's got to hit a drop off now
with thirty points. Yeah, that's like that's gonna be tough.
But that's gonna take his toll on your fantasy team
if you have him during that stretches.
Speaker 2 (11:58):
But if that's two ninety, okay, But if that two
to ninety is like he just hits for more power,
but the batting average goes down and stuff, that's what
it could happen. But again, you were talking about a
three thirty, double digit homer and stolen based guy, and
you can sell war on people. If you can do it,
you should. You should listen because the best parts of
Jeremy Pinion may have already happened this season.
Speaker 1 (12:18):
All right, Jonathan Ronda's best parts have definitely been at
home this year. Three sixty nine batting average with a
nine to sixty one OPS on the road two fifty
five batting average, much different player a seven ninety seven OPS.
That's a huge chasm, almost two hundred points difference there.
So let's talk about Jonathan Ronda because the Rays are
gonna be road warriors this summer based on the way
(12:38):
schedule has been laid out here in the July and
August period, that could be a problem for Ronda. Again,
maybe we've seen the best of him, so far in
twenty twenty five at the front end of the season. Welsh,
what do you.
Speaker 2 (12:48):
Think, Yeah, I'm with you on this one.
Speaker 1 (12:50):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (12:50):
The interesting thing was it felt very platoony with him
as well. That might be gone because he technically it's
a very short sample size only like fifty at bats
he's had against lefties, but he is too eighty against
lefties this year. But of note, there isn't really a
lot of impact. So like even if you were to
start playing a few more games, he has no homers
versus lefties. He has almost no doubles. It's actually kind
(13:13):
of crazy with the numbers. Look down there, batting average
drops a little bit, and then you do have this
really dramatic home road split. This is one of those
where it's like if Jonathan Ronda becomes a two eighty
two seventy hitter, he doesn't have enough really impact, you know,
like we're talking about like you know, Jeremy Pania or
just a lot of other players. The impactful stats I'm
not sure gonna look super great. They are still playing platoon,
(13:35):
little platoony with him that, yeah, I think with how
high he just ranks everywhere because the websites that you
guys play on they kind of overvaluate batting average if
you're in category sometimes, so you know, like Jacob Wilson
becomes like a top fifteen player, but Hornda hitting three
twenty five, he's going to rank really high. He's got
a high batting average, he's got some homers. If you
go to fangrafts, war is going to rank. And my
(13:56):
point is is he's just kind of high up there
that I think you can sell off him. And I
don't hate this at all from him not playing versus
lefties and playing more on the road that if I
think I would get out from Jonathan Ronde, even though
he has been very consistent all year.
Speaker 1 (14:10):
All right, let's talk about one more guy that is
on his way back and returning for the Cubs, and
Show to a Monaga was great last year. I was
a big supporter of his. But I always say that
when a guy's returning from an injury, Welsh, that's when
his value was at its peak, right because he hasn't
really done anything yet. He's all just hope and glory
and everything is just rosy right now. But everything wasn't
rosy for show Toy Moanaga before he went on the IL.
(14:32):
Over his first forty four innings of the season, he
was pretty rough. His kper nine was at six' eighty,
five way lower than last year's nine. Mark his walks
per nine were a two point eight, two way higher
than last year's one four to five. Mark HIS era
was a two way two but has expected era was
four to six. Four he had a four to five
THREE fip and a four to eight three X. Fip to,
(14:54):
me if you haven't had A monaga for a, while
and it's been a while since he's, pitched he has
a lot of value in the. Trade he pitches for The.
Cubs he had coming off a great year last. Year
but if you found The Mizzerrales keys or a couple
other guys of the waiver, wire The chris Boobage is
or some guys like that that have really filled the
spots for you in your, rotation they don't Need. Imanaga
this is the time to trade. Him based off of
(15:14):
what he was doing before he went on THE. Il
what do you think about Dealing imanaga right?
Speaker 2 (15:18):
Now, Yeah i'm kind of open to. THIS i got
to see him pitch and. Rehab it was one of
the hottest days, ever out here it was like one
hundred and eight at like ten, am and he was
pitching out here in complex and, rehabbing and you, know
he was, very very efficient going up against these really young,
guys pitching to a lot of contact, though and you,
know there was a few really hard hit balls THAT
(15:39):
i wonder when you start to take that over into
the major. Leagues what that made me think was maybe
that low kate percentage was kind of reality to. Him
and you see those expected er numbers that kind of
stare at. You if showed To imanaga is a sub
like twenty to twenty three k percentage. GUY i don't love.
That i'm not really super excited about. That his walks were.
Up he's in the expected numbers or up is because
(16:01):
he was giving up a lot of barreled, contact and
the expected batting average against the three major pitch types he,
throws we're all higher than what was actually given. Up
so there is this weird state of, like you, know
him kind of expanding in a bad way on his
stats and getting i don't want to say getting blown,
up but maybe a tiny. Bit it's actually not a bad.
Idea there's so many pitching injuries out, There he's about
(16:23):
to come back on a great. Team people might kind
of forget some of that and just, go oh, GREAT
i can get the second half Of. Yamaanaga you might
be able to get fair value and fair value for Your.
Monaga has him just moved him up because so many
pitches have fallen off the? List, YEAH i THINK i
am definitely open to, consolidating and specifically into the scenario
you said where you maybe have really hit gold in
some spots and you have a solid. Rotation maybe you
(16:45):
could really finish out your team and sell high on
show To. Imanaga drop your comments.
Speaker 1 (16:49):
Below are you buying or selling show To? Imanaga and
your comment might just win you a cecil field or
autograph jersey From Christine. Auction if you subscribe To Fantasy BROWS,
mlb drop your comment and like this. Video that'll do
it for, Us but the story of the game goes
on for The. Welsh I'm JOEY. P we'll see you next. Time.
Giz thanks for listening to The Fantasy Pros Fantasy baseball.
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(17:12):
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