Financial Insights

Financial Insights

Welcome to Ford Financial Group's Financial Insights Podcast, where we review subjects relevant to investing, and topics that impact our clients and their plans for retirement.Investment advice is offered through Ford Financial Group, a Registered Investment Advisor and separate entity from LPL Financial. The Financial Advisors of Ford Financial Group are also Registered Representatives with and securities are offered through LPL Financial, Member SIPC, www.sipc.org.For a list of states in which we are registered to do business, please visit www.FordFG.com.1-856451

Episodes

November 29, 2022 15 min

"Yield Curve Inversion Reaches New Extremes" was the eye opening headline from the Wall Street Journal this week, and it certainly grabs attention and probably leads to some investor panic. But what does "yield curve inversion" actually mean for you as an investor, and exactly which yield curve is the better predictor of recessions?

This week Brian tackles what you need to know about the yield curve, its predictive ...

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This week we're joined by Joe Perry, a loan officer with Precision Home Loans, who gives a honest assessment of where the housing market, mortgage rates, and housing generally stand in light of recent interest rate increases.

If you have questions for Joe from this episode, you can find him at www.therealjoeperry.com.

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This week Brian discusses how the Federal Reserve (Fed) ended its two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting this week and the outcome was broadly in line with market expectations. As expected, the Committee raised short-term interest rates by 0.75% to take the fed funds rate to 4.0% (upper bound).

However, during the press conference, Powell suggested he sees rates higher than expected at the last forecast round in Septe...

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October 29, 2022 17 min

This week Brian talks about how, after two consecutive quarters of negative growth, the U.S. economy grew at a 2.6% annualized rate in the third quarter, driven by a resilient consumer sector. Real personal spending, roughly 70% of the economy, grew 1.4% annualized, slightly slower than the previous quarter.

LPL Chart of the Day

Tracking # 1-05341645

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October 18, 2022 9 min

The core bond index (as defined by the Bloomberg Aggregate Bond index) is seeing losses unlike any year since its inception. Core bonds are down nearly 16% this year and this year’s losses have wiped out five years of gains for the index.  Because bonds operate differently from stocks, this week Brian reviews how long it might take to recover this year’s losses

LPL Chart of possible bond returns

Tracking ID: 1-05339279

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October 11, 2022 15 min

Just like muscle fatigue is part of any intense training program, volatility is an unavoidable part of the investment process. It’s easy for investors to forget that volatility is the norm, not the exception. This week Brian addresses 5 ways to handle volatility as an investor. 

Tracking ID: 1-05322459

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Ryan, Brian, and Nik discuss the terrible end to the third quarter of 2022, which gave the S&P 500 its 3rd straight quarterly loss, the worst month since March 2020, and the worst September since 2008!

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Music:
Cold Funk - Funkorama by Kevin MacLeod is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution license. So...

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September 29, 2022 14 min

This week Brian discusses how the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) increased the target rate by 75 basis points to a 3.25% upper bound and delivered a more pessimistic outlook in their published Summary of Economic Projections.

Chart: Aggressive Hikes Taming Inflation

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August 23, 2022 11 min

Since 1978, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City has played host to central bankers, policymakers, academics and economists from around the world at its annual economic policy symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

This year’s symposium is titled “Reassessing Constraints on the Economy,” and it takes place from Thursday to Saturday and Fed Chair Jerome Powell headlines the event.

We don’t yet know the topic of his keynote speech, b...

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Like most people, you're likely to change jobs several times during your working life. And you'll likely have a 401(k) account through your former employer to deal with. This week, Brian talks about four options for what to do with an old 401(k) account.

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Cold Funk - Funkorama by Kevin MacLeod is...

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CLICK HERE to view the Midyear Outlook Presentation

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Music:
Cold Funk - Funkorama by Kevin MacLeod is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution license. Source

This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assu...

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This week, Brian talks about how a historically weak quarter, six months, and year for stocks, bonds, and the two combined is now behind us. 

With stocks and bonds both showing weakness, not surprisingly a 60/40 balanced portfolio that combines the two has also shown weakness. ASince 1976 (the inception of the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index), the second quarter of 2022 was the fifth worst for the S&P 500 Index (“S&P 500...

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June 22, 2022 14 min

Last week the Federal Reserve announced its first 0.75% move since November 1994. The possibility of a 0.75% hike seemed unlikely even a week ago, but an upside surprise in the latest reading of Consumer Price Index (CPI) index inflation, released on Friday, June 10, changed everything as short-term yields soared and market-implied rate hike expectations climbed higher.

This week Brian talks about how the Fed still has to remain cre...

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June 14, 2022 16 min

In this bonus episode, Brian discusses some of the questions asked of him in a recent interview relating to the stock market drop, bear markets, recessions, inflation, and interest rates.

Check out the interview here:  CBS47 Interview

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Music:
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June 3, 2022 18 min

Stocks rallied hard the prior week week, as the S&P 500 Index broke a seven week losing streak in resounding fashion; its 6.6% gain was the best since November 2020. That strong response from equities, following one of the worst starts to the year ever, has many investors questioning, “Was that the low?” While we are certainly open to that possibility, Brian takes a look at why the technical picture suggests volatility is likel...

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While the S&P 500 Index has not officially entered bear market territory, plenty of areas of the market have. This week, Brian talks about how the consumer discretionary sector is one of them with a 35% drop from its November 2021 high. And as we heard from some of the biggest retailers during earnings season, the outlook is only getting tougher as energy prices soar and supply chain problems persist.

Sign up for Our June 2022 W...

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May 13, 2022 19 min

It’s been a tough year so far for a traditional “60/40” portfolio, a portfolio of 60% stocks and 40% bonds. Using the S&P 500 Index and the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index (“Agg”) to represent stocks and bonds, the traditional 60/40 is down 14.0% as of market close on May 11 on a total return basis, which would trail only 2008 as the worst year on record if that’s where we ended the year, but this week Brian explains how th...

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May 6, 2022 13 min

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Music:
Cold Funk - Funkorama by Kevin MacLeod is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution license. Source. Tracking ID: 1-05274297, 1-05277718

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April 28, 2022 16 min

This week Brian gets down to business and talks about the likelihood of a recession this year. Not all recessions are created equal. Previous downturns in the U.S. were prompted by various shocks, with the most recent recession started by health and government-induced shutdowns. Other recessions started in the corporate sector, whereas some started from commodity shocks. The next one could start from geopolitical tensions. Nonethel...

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For the third straight week, the U.S. market indexes finished lower as the continued Eastern European conflict along with inflation concerns renewed investor worries about future corporate profits.  This week Brian recaps the difficult April for markets, and how bonds may not be offering the protection some investors are looking for.

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