One of the best known investment axioms is to “sell in May and go away.” This is largely because the six months from May through October have historically been some of the weakest months of the year for stocks. This week Brian discusses how the next six months have tended to be on the weak side, but does that mean investors should run for the hills?

CLICK HERE for the first LPL chart mentioned in the episode.

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Stocks have kicked off the year in a strong fashion, and history shows this may give reason to be optimistic for the rest of the year. After a solid—but certainly turbulent—year in 2020, the S&P 500 Index has continued to set new all-time highs in 2021, returning 5.8% in the first quarter.

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This week Brian reviews market performance from last week's holiday-shortened week, discusses the impressive jobs numbers reported last week, and digs in on 12 common financial mistakes you should avoid that could hinder your ability to grow your wealth.

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This week you get to listen in on the audio recording of last week's webinar with Dr. Bill Lloyd, the Health Director of Transamerica's Advanced Markets Group, where he and Brian covered and overview of the pandemic as it stands today and what scientists have learned about transmission. They also covered how the different vaccines work, and what kinds of steps you still need to take to protect yourself, your family, and you...

In almost every direction we turn, we see optimism mounting over a mid-2021 economic re-acceleration. Unfortunately, it seems we will have to wait at least another month for that optimism to make their way into leading economic indicators in a major way.

This week Brian discusses how the Conference Board released its February 2021 report detailing the latest reading for its Leading Economic Index (LEI), a composite of ten data serie...

With the NCAA college basketball tournament getting underway this week, FFG & LPL Research is getting in the spirit with its own version of March Madness. Here we share our “Final Four Factors” for the stock market in 2021: Vaccines, Policy, Profits, and Rates. While we see several strong competitors in this field, we believe the likely winner of this tournament is clear, and it will push stocks higher over the balance of the y...

US payrolls grew at a solid clip month over month in February, as progress in the vaccine distribution process appeared to boost growth by enabling more of the economy to reopen. Our opinion has always been that until we have achieved widespread vaccine distribution, the in-person segments of the labor market will be slow to recover losses from a year ago. This week Brian discusses how we are becoming increasingly bullish on the pr...

This week Brian is joined by a special guest, Meera Pandit from the Global Market Insights Strategy Team at JPMorgan Asset Management. Meera is responsible for  conducting research on the global economy and capital markets, and is also part of the publication team that produces the JPMorgan Guide to the Markets.

Meera has been with her firm for more than a decade, is a CFA charterholder and earned her bachelors degree from Tufts Uni...

Last Friday marked one year since the market began to price in the effects that COVID-19 would have on the world. The old market adage “stairs up, elevator down” certainly rang true over the coming weeks, as the S&P 500 recorded the fastest bear market (closing 20% below a previous all-time high) in history, accomplishing that feat in a mere 16 days. This week, Brian discusses three lessons that we learned (or at least reminded...

This week, Brian talks about the growing debate over whether an expanding economy, in conjunction with historic fiscal and monetary policies, may cause inflation to overheat. This begs the question, will we see a reflationary environment—where prices will merely normalize to prior levels—or outright inflation—where consumer prices begin to increase above trend?

CLICK HERE for the LPL chart mentioned in the episode.

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This week Brian discusses how the 10-year breakeven inflation rate, a market-based measure of inflation expectations, hit its highest level last Friday, February 5, since 2014.


CLICK HERE for the LPL chart mentioned in the episode.

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This week, Brian talks about how US payrolls grew month over month in January following a brief dip into negative territory in December. Peering under the hood, though, this report did little to dispel the notion that the labor market’s recovery has been stalling out, and likely bolsters calls for additional fiscal stimulus.

CLICK HERE for the LPL chart mentioned in the episode.

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This week Brian reviews the Fed's renewed commitment to continue its asset purchasing program and its emphasis on maximum employment over price stability. We also cover some of the incredible action from some of the most heavily shorted names, which has investors everywhere wondering "what does this all mean?"

CLICK HERE for the first LPL chart mentioned in the episode.

CLICK HERE for the second LPL chart mentioned in the...

This week Brian discusses how earlier this year, mortgage rates followed the 10-year Treasury yield lower to register an all-time low value of 3.3%. Fueled by additional purchases of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) by the Fed, mortgage spreads have narrowed while Treasury yields remain at depressed levels, only recently trading above 1%. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the average rate on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage has co...

Where are my tax forms? This week brian reviews our tax form release schedule, and also covers how the rise in COVID-19 cases in the fourth quarter of 2020 and the subsequent rise in restrictions implemented by state and local governments have taken a toll particularly on small businesses, pushing the Uncertainty Index component of the survey 8 points below the 6-month average.

CLICK HERE for the LPL chart mentioned in the episode.

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2020 was a good year for stock investors despite unprecedented challenges.

After being down more than 30% at the March 2020 lows, the S&P 500 Index ended the year with a solid 18.4% total return. Last year marked the first time the index ended a year positive after being down at least 30% during that year. Gains were driven primarily by the emerging economic recovery taking hold, bolstered by massive stimulus, and the remarkably...

As 2020 comes to a close, we are already looking forward to a new year—and to a world very different from the one we’re leaving behind. Areas of the economy have been damaged and may never fully recover, but other areas will adapt, reinvent, and help reinvigorate growth. This week Brian Ullmann and Steve Jolly get together to cover what may be on the investing horizon next year by looking at monetary and fiscal policy, the economy,...

Equity strength at this time of the year is widely known as the Santa Claus Rally, but the term is somewhat misunderstood. Discovered in 1972 by Yale Hirsch, creator of the Stock Trader’s Almanac (carried on now by his son Jeff Hirsch), the real Santa Claus Rally is the final five trading days of the year and first two trading days of the following year, not just December. In other words, the official Santa Claus Rally is set to be...