Episode 320: 2024 Starting Pitcher Review

At last, we have gone through our positional reviews for 2024 (yeah, we skipped relievers, sorry), finishing up with starting pitchers. If aces didn't always ace, they at least held serve (Spencer Strider being the exception, sob). Some nice innings consumers in the next tier down, and the lower tiers had far more misses than hits.

We refer to Mike's review article at BP, which you can find here: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/article/95769/2024-mixed-pitcher-valuations-recap/. 

Flags Fly Forever is a Baseball Prospectus podcast. For more fantasy baseball information, visit baseballprospectus.com and click on "Fantasy."

You can find Flags Fly Forever on Bluesky (@flagsflyforever.bsky.social). The hosts of Flags Fly Forever are Mike Gianella(@mikegianella.bsky.social) and Jon Hegglund(@jonhegglund.bsky.social). The producer of Flags Fly Forever is Jon Hegglund. 

Special thanks to the awesome and generous Petite League for permission to use their track "Mets" for the intro and break music. Find their sweet lo-fi indie-pop sounds at petiteleague.com.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:24):
Welcome to episode three twenty of Flags Fly Forever, a
Baseball Perspectives fantasy baseball podcast. It's twenty twenty five, but
we're going to go back in time me and my
co host John Haglund and talk about twenty twenty four
starting pitchers.

Speaker 2 (00:42):
We are Hello, Happy New Year to you and yours.

Speaker 3 (00:45):
We're also recording a little peek behind the curtain, recording
during the day, which is a little odd for us.

Speaker 2 (00:53):
Usually usually it's at nighttime.

Speaker 1 (00:56):
So also, yeah, it's like it's like almost four o'clock here,
so I ended for So I'm not really not that
I won't care, but you know, it is in American
work life in twenty twenty five, you probably really wind
up working sixty hours a week anyway, So no one's
gonna care that I'm clocking off, you know, a few

(01:17):
minutes early to do a podcast.

Speaker 3 (01:19):
So yeah, but I but the fact that you brought
it up means you feel slightly guilty about it.

Speaker 1 (01:25):
Oh not really. Again, I feel weird about the auf
chance as somebody listens to this, But frankly, this is
so esoteric, like like I don't know that we're going
to go off on a side path here. But like
most people don't play fantasy sports in the real world
play fantasy football, and even the one who play fantasy baseball,

(01:46):
they're they're not listening to this. This is a great
way to promote the content. But you know, they're they're
they're like in a ten team mixed league with their friends.
They're they're not playing in n FBC leagues.

Speaker 3 (01:57):
Well, now that you've you know, rolled out, welcome Matt
to the widest audience possible.

Speaker 2 (02:02):
Let's start talking about twenty twenty four starting pitchers.

Speaker 1 (02:06):
Let's do it. So if you've been listening so far,
the format here speaking of NFBC, it's last year's draft
champions NFBC from the last fifty or so drafts, and
we kind of group these pictures into tears. This is
a really long list of players. It's ninety six pitchers

(02:26):
and that doesn't even account for the profitable reserve pictures.
Although are not too many of them, so we're not
going to rush through this. But we're also not going
to cover everyone of these pictures. I think we're going
to more talk about them in groups. So John, let's
go right to last year's five star There's eleven names here,
we can probably read off all eleven of.

Speaker 2 (02:44):
The Yeah, we can do for five star, maybe four
star will do that. Then later on I'm not going.

Speaker 1 (02:48):
To do the role call, but okay.

Speaker 3 (02:51):
And again in order of ADP from last year, we
have Spencer Streider, Corbyn Burns, Zach Wheeler, Luis Castillo, George
Pablo Lopez, Tyler glads Now, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Zach Gallen, Kevin Gosman, and.

Speaker 2 (03:09):
Last, but certainly not least, Trek Scooble.

Speaker 1 (03:12):
Yeah. When you say last, I mean he was so
that the five star for pictures is the first three rounds,
so you know, Scooble was the best pitcher in Fantasy
last year. But as a late third round pick, it
certainly wasn't like, oh what a you know what a
shocker is, like, oh well that's really really nice spy there.

Speaker 3 (03:29):
Yeah, it was Schooble, And in many ways I think
he's the most interesting picture in this tier because I
seem to recall that I certainly was and I think
maybe to a degree, you were not really on Scooble
at the draft cost from last year.

Speaker 2 (03:48):
And you know, we were wrong or I was wrong,
people were right.

Speaker 3 (03:53):
And I think my hesitation had a lot to do
with just you know, can can picture stay healthy for
an entire year?

Speaker 2 (04:04):
And a little bit?

Speaker 1 (04:05):
You know.

Speaker 3 (04:05):
Next to that was the question of were those dramatic
gains that he showed in twenty twenty three legitimate.

Speaker 2 (04:12):
I feel like I'm probably going to get a lot of.

Speaker 3 (04:15):
These, you know, these pictures wrong, just because I tend
to be a little skeptical of you know, hype to
this degree. But what do you what do you think
about Schooble in that he did the thing that people
thought he was going to do and he out earned
even the lofty draft costs from twenty.

Speaker 1 (04:34):
Four Yeah, so just to take a step back, I
wasn't in on Schooble, but I'm looking back at my
like native at ranks, I had him ranked tenth and
he was eleven. So I was kind of right in
the middle where I was like, well if I get him, great,
if I don't find and I didn't get him anywhere,
just because like that's often how that goes, where if

(04:55):
you're not like high on somebody, just somebody's more excited
about him, which makes sense. I really like Schooble this year,
Like I guess the health is probably still going to
be a question for me for another year. But there's
nothing else in his profile that I look at and
I'm like, oh, yeah, like you should fade him. He's
not going to be good.

Speaker 3 (05:16):
You know.

Speaker 1 (05:16):
The early Steamer projection has him with a sub three
e er that feels realistic to me. The park really
helps him out. The Tigers are our contenders, So maybe
he won't win eighteen games again, but the wins should
be there. I just don't. I think it's going to
be between him and Paul Schemes for number one in
twenty twenty five, and I think that's where they're you know,

(05:38):
we said we won't talk too much about twenty twenty five,
but I think that's where you know, they're both going.

Speaker 2 (05:44):
Yeah, I actually am wondering.

Speaker 3 (05:46):
Maybe this is a good segue another picture that in
this tier, who finishes the SP two Zach Wheeler?

Speaker 2 (05:57):
Is there a case too?

Speaker 3 (05:58):
And maybe again we should save this for the positional previews,
But so looking retrospectively, I will just say that Wheelers
pitch one hundred and ninety at least one hundred and
ninety two innings in three the last four years and
two of those years went over two hundred innings and
over that span almost exactly ten strikeouts for nine two

(06:19):
walks per nine.

Speaker 2 (06:22):
I almost want to.

Speaker 3 (06:24):
Make the case for Wheeler as an sp one, just
based as the sp one, based on that kind of consistency. Like,
you know, I imagine he's and I haven't been looking at
ADP imagine he's he's going third right now.

Speaker 2 (06:38):
But I don't know what are your thoughts on Wheeler
and the.

Speaker 3 (06:42):
Value of that, that consistency and that kind of high floor.

Speaker 1 (06:47):
Yeah, I think there's a good case for him to
be the number one pitcher for that reason. You know,
I remember watching him. You know, his last start of
twenty twenty four was against the Mets of the playoffs.
He was just dominant, and he is that kind of picture.
Er under three, I know, one of these years of
the pandemic year, but you know for the last five seasons,

(07:08):
missed a little bit of time in twenty twenty two
due to injury. I just don't know, though, like what
more you could want from him, Like maybe a few
more strikeouts if you're really like kind of quibbling the
home park could be a little bit better, But yeah,
the number that jumps out to me. That's like kind
of amazing this day and age. Twenty six quality starts

(07:32):
in thirty two starts in the regular season, that that
is that's mind boggling like that. That's just a that's
just who does that in this day and age, Like
twenty six quality starts a few years ago would have
been impressive, let alone twenty twenty four.

Speaker 3 (07:47):
Yeah, I mean, nobody goes I mean it's rare that
a pitcher will even go six innings more than you know,
a starter will go six innings even like twenty times
a year these days.

Speaker 1 (07:59):
So yeah, I'm looking it up. Yeah, Lugo, Burns, Gilbert
and Scuba were next at twenty two. Yeah, it's a
pretty it's a pretty amazing number.

Speaker 3 (08:11):
I guess the kind of global observation I'd make about
this tier is they still you know, and I think
you have more of a comparative sense, But the average
earnings for this tier were just under fourteen dollars, and
that includes Strider's you know, season ending injury, which basically,

(08:33):
you know, you had to replace him very.

Speaker 2 (08:35):
Very early on.

Speaker 3 (08:37):
And you know, there there were, of course pictures in
this tier that were somewhat disappointing. Pablo Lopez is one
we know well, Luis Castillo to a degree, Zach Gallen.

Speaker 2 (08:51):
Still, it's it seems like.

Speaker 1 (08:54):
You know this.

Speaker 3 (08:56):
Looking at the next tier and especially the three star tier,
like this felt like even more than ever, you know,
even if your results are not always going to earn
the cost you paid, like I just feel like you
still really want to target a picture in this tier.

Speaker 1 (09:13):
Yeah, so, and I'm glad you brought it to this
because we did want to talk about, like you know,
last year and kind of big picture stuff. So as
it happens, it was a week late, and this I
think as party is recorded, this now my mixed picture.
You know. Valuations article is up at the site and
it groups pictures into groups of fifteen, you know, not

(09:35):
just in tiers. So it's a little bit different, but
it's the same thing that I found every year, which
is these pictures at the top are the ones that
you want to get. They're the ones the most reliable. Yes,
the pictures in the next tier actually come pretty close,
like on average for earnings, but there's fewer busts in

(09:55):
this tier as well. You mentioned Strider. There's typically one
or two pictures in this group that are sub replacement.
When you get down to the next group, you've got
like three, four, maybe five. That's really the biggest difference.
Like even the disappointments here, you're going to get something.
And yes, you know, if you drafted Kevin Gosman, obviously

(10:15):
you didn't walk away with a big, warm, fuzzy but
you did get something. You got a picture who contributed
as opposed to if you do weaight, and this is
almost single picture's like ooh, I'm gonna I'm gonna get value.
I'm gonna get you know, Seth Lugo. It's like, well,
you might, but you probably won't and you might get
less than nothing. And I know some people will get
this later that they'll be like, well, okay, big deal,

(10:37):
it's a seventeenth round pick. It's like, that's not really
the issue. The issue is that you need to get
You need to make up those innings and you need
to get those stats, and you're gonna have to get
them from the free agent pool.

Speaker 3 (10:48):
Yeah, and it's really the innings that that you is
what you get in this year, and I would say
to a large degree the next year. But you know,
even someone like bassman who was pretty undwhelming and take
a big step back into strikeouts in particular. Still one
hundred and eighty one innings, you know, that's you know,

(11:09):
that's what you need to be competitive, especially in a
league with an overall competition.

Speaker 2 (11:16):
Anything else on the five star tier.

Speaker 1 (11:19):
I mean not really like you know, just just kind
of looking at it again that it is kind of
there are There were some injury pictures here for sure,
like Yavamoto was the big one. But yeah, I think
this is just a pretty reliable, like boring. This is
a pretty reliable, boring group in a good way.

Speaker 3 (11:39):
Well let's get to a less reliable, maybe less boring group,
although still pretty reliable, especially at the top end. So
I will quickly go through the names in the four
star tier and again in order of ADP from last year.
Freddy Peralta, Logan web Aaron Nola from ber Valdez, Max Freed, Logan,

(12:00):
Gilbert Grayson, Rodriguez, Bobby Miller, Blake Snell, Zach Eflin, Cole Reagan's,
Heyesus Lozardo, Joe Ryan, Dylan Ceese, and Justin Steele. So
that takes us down through SP twenty one. As far
as last year's.

Speaker 1 (12:18):
Well, I actually I mess up the counting and I
just fixed it. But probably an updated on your end
twenty twenty six. Yeah, this is really yeah, okay cons
here this is my mistake, by the way, not John,
So if you're listening, okay, So getting close.

Speaker 3 (12:37):
So we're we're not quite tracking on the groups of fifteen,
but we are getting close to the to the uh
you know, end of the top thirty starters. I mean,
this is a pretty good tier, especially at the top.
Like you see a lot of pictures earning double digits.
Logan Gilbert's kind of the star of the show in

(12:58):
that top half. But I feel like here is this
sort of paralta web Nola Veldez free Gilbert tier, Like
I feel like that's the ideal place to get your
SP two if you can. If it is the ends
up being your SP one, that's that's not a disaster
by any stretch. So you know, it seems like what

(13:23):
characterizes the top half of this tier are reliable innings
for the most part.

Speaker 1 (13:29):
Yeah, you know, Valdez is the I guess the paradigm
of that, Like he's this boring picture who you look
at and you think, eh, you know, he's good but
not great, and at the end he's a top you know,
he's eleventh best starter, he's a fifteen best pitcher. It's like,
oh that that's really nice and a lot that's a volume.
But even someone like Nola, who we always talk about

(13:50):
the up and down years, it's like, Okay, Nola was
the twenty fourth best pitcher. He he was a fourteenth
pitcher taken, so disappointing. But he's your SP two. Like
that's if you're if you're drafting a picture here and
getting an SP two, can you really complain all that
much about it? No?

Speaker 3 (14:07):
Yeah, I think like with Nola, and I think I
believe this for a while too. You know, we thought
of him based on a couple of years as as
an ace as a kind of nailed on SP one.
But I think maybe this is just sort of his level.
He's solid, he's not spectacular. He eats innings. He's on
a good team, so the wins.

Speaker 2 (14:27):
Should be there. Yeah, boring but but pretty safe. Gilbert Logan.
Gilbert to me is like maybe sort of Zach.

Speaker 3 (14:39):
Wheeler junior now, And I'm just mainly thinking about the
innings that he puts up, like he's just such a workhorse.
And and you know, you can't really tell you know,
all pictures are injury risks, but last three seasons, two eight,
you know, he's just to watch him too. He does

(15:02):
not look it's a pretty clean delivery, and he just
looks very fluid out there.

Speaker 2 (15:08):
He's you know, he's he's a he's a big dude.

Speaker 3 (15:13):
And you know, the wins were the one thing that
that uh sort of dampened his value last year.

Speaker 2 (15:20):
But I find very little too to criticize in Gilbert
right now.

Speaker 1 (15:26):
Yeah, I mean, he he won me my home league.
As I know kind of told you on that last day.
I'm sure you wont a lot of people their their
leagues with that that performance at at the end of
the season where I thought maybe he'd go like two
or three innings because he had already pitched, you know,
already top two hundred, and he went out and I
think through what was like six shouting something like that
against the A's and and yeah, he's you know, I

(15:50):
at a neutral, contextually free world, I prefer Wheeler, but
the park that that Gilbert pitches in definitely pushes him
up compared to the park Wheeler pitches in. I'd still
rather Wheeler, don't get me wrong, but I think I
think I have Gilbert fourth in my overall ranks right now. Yeah,
He's just that one of those guys that I'm perfectly

(16:12):
fine and comfort with with the ACE level. Which is
funny because you mentioned Schooble as someone I didn't like. Actually,
Gilbert was that guy last year. I was kind of
a little down on him, didn't really have a warm,
fuzzy feeling, didn't think he'd be an ACE. Thought some
people were, you know, pushing him a little bit too high,
and I was I was wrong about that, Like he
was great.

Speaker 2 (16:32):
It's it's very uh, very mature and responsible of you
too to admit you were wrong on something you know
you don't you don't see that.

Speaker 1 (16:40):
Well, it helps that I got it, It helps I
got him, and it helps I got him in the
one League, I did get him reluctantly I won. So
it kind of takes the stick away from being wrong.

Speaker 3 (16:50):
So the next the next two on this list, Grayson
Rodriguez and Bobby Miller, you know, both under performing for
different reasons. We we I think we're very wary of
Bobby Miller.

Speaker 2 (17:06):
Last year, and yes, I wonder if there's.

Speaker 3 (17:09):
Some you know, lesson to be learned about pitchers with
For Miller, it was a couple of things. It was
he walked a lot of players, He walked a lot
of hitters, and he really had, you know, next to
you know, very little of a major league track record.
And yes, you can get excited about the stuff about

(17:30):
the velocity, about the fact that he pitches for the Dodgers,
but it just seemed like a like a trap to me.

Speaker 1 (17:38):
Yeah, although I will say that the odd thing about
his like the prior year, was his walk rate in
the majors in like one hundred and twenty four innings
in twenty twenty three was low. It was the strikeouts
that seemed to kind of be the red flag. Where
hit all these strikeouts in the minors, then all of
a sudden he was below nine and his zer was
was okay but not really great. I just have a

(18:00):
hard time knowing how much of it was truly performance
and how much of it was found up being injury.
It seems that he might have already been kind of
showing signs of wearing down in the miners and twenty
twenty three, and that's kind of what we were seeing
in twenty twenty four. And is he I think he's
going to be on the il to start right or

(18:21):
am I.

Speaker 2 (18:23):
You can vamp for a minute and I can find
this out.

Speaker 1 (18:27):
I'm looking here. Well, it's funny because I think on
the depth chart they have him. I think they have
in the miners actually, so yeah, which means it could
could go either way. And given the Dodgers that that
kind of makes sense where there's really no healthier No,
there's no reason to rush him.

Speaker 3 (18:45):
Back, right, The Dodgers will will go for like an
eight man rotation and then wait for six of them
to be in.

Speaker 1 (18:53):
I mean, this is you know, this is but I
think the Future podcast we talk about starting pitchers in March,
but I think of the team with money, at least
they're going to all kind of do that, right, Like
they're they're going to try to, you know, take advantage
of of the rules as much as they can and
and just have as many pictures, get as many starts
as as possible.

Speaker 3 (19:13):
Well, sure, I mean it's it's it sucks from a
fan point of view, but it's the the optimal thing
to do.

Speaker 2 (19:21):
I guess.

Speaker 1 (19:21):
Well, in a fantasy at a fantasy point of view too,
like you know, speaking of the Dodgers, like Lake Snell,
who was our guy last year, and you know, I
don't know how you feel about those seven dollars and
twenty eight cents in earnings. And it's really interesting because
earlier today we were we were kind of pregaming about
the podcast we were Job was like, well, maybe we
should do like a like raw earnings or earnings per start,

(19:44):
and we don't have time to put that together. But
you know, Snell is somebody. If you take out that
awful month, month and a half whatever it was where
he got rolling, that's he was negative. And if you
take you know, everything after that, he was one of
the best pitchers in baseball, like he he often is.
But if you're the Dodgers, you probably really do want
twenty five starts out of Blake Sell in the regular season.

(20:04):
You don't want him to get thirty two or thirty
three or whatever and be worn out if you're going
to go through three or four miles of playoffs.

Speaker 3 (20:11):
No, And in a weird way, you're sort of like
pricing Snell, you know, again, just previewing what we'll be
talking about later in the in the winter and spring.
But we knew last year that that it was a
late start when we drafted him because he'd just been signed,
so we knew it was going to be a little while.

Speaker 2 (20:29):
And then this year we we know that.

Speaker 3 (20:32):
Because he's pitching for the Dodgers, that you know, it's
going to be more like a once a week thing
than a regular five every five days.

Speaker 1 (20:40):
Yeah. I mean he might, he might have a couple,
he might have a couple of two week like two
weeks starts, but I would agree that two star weeks, yeah,
but I would agree that it's not going to be
the norm for sure.

Speaker 3 (20:53):
Uh yeah, Blake Snell, you know, roller coaster ride. I
guess the only other picture I wanted to mention, well, yeah,
is Cole Reagan's because you know, like Scooball, it was
another one who was had a lot of helium last spring,
and I you know, it just was sort of naturally skeptical,

(21:16):
you know, and even people whose evaluations of pitching I trust,
like like you know, Sarah's and like Nick Pollock of
Picture List, I still couldn't wrap my head around Cole
Reagan's as a top thirty pitcher and you know, he
on a lower on a lesser scale than school ball.

Speaker 2 (21:39):
He had a great year.

Speaker 3 (21:41):
But still it was it was definitely a year that
where he definitely you know, he just about yeah, he
just surpassed his his SP ranking.

Speaker 1 (21:54):
Oh he did. Mean he delivered. And you know it's funny.
I wasn't out on him exactly, but he was another
picture like Schooble, I didn't get anywhere. I would say,
for like Reagan's and schoobl it's more that it's less
that I don't like pictures like that. It's more that
I'm not they don't fit my draft pro a file,

(22:15):
if that makes sense. Yeah, I think that's what you
were trying to say, which is I just don't really
look for that kind of risk in the draft. I'd
rather be like, you know what if somebody hits on
Schooble or especially Reagan's, you know, bless you like a
pitcher who never pitched more than ninety six innings in
a season or at twelve starts in the majors before
twenty twenty four. And yeah, I'm kind of only to

(22:36):
be wrong on that and be like, well, okay, I'm wrong, fine,
Like I can live with that. What's funny is with Reagan's,
I think in the main event of our round, it
was but he was kind of falling and I was
kind of eyeing him like hmm, like if he's there
and whatever, this next round is like we should take
And of course somebody you know, took him a couple
of picks before and made that moot. But yeah, he's uh,
I think he's fine. I'll picture. I think the thing

(23:01):
that really like surprised was the walks. I thought you'd
have some trouble with that, but he did not.

Speaker 2 (23:08):
Uh Yeah.

Speaker 3 (23:08):
And to be clear, yeah, with with pictures like you know,
like schoobl and Reagan's, it's exactly as you put it.
It's not really like I objectively think that they're not
not going to be good. It's it's really more that
you know, the market is just a little bit higher
than I am, and that you know I don't and
I think you know you agree that we generally don't

(23:30):
want to start off our our staff with with a
really risky arm.

Speaker 1 (23:35):
I think the thing that's funny about this though, is
you know, when when you look at this tier and
the next one, which we'll get to in a bit,
is that past a certain point like last year, and
maybe it was like Logan Gilbert, who was like the
seventeenth starter, there was risk almost anywhere you looked like
the safe arms were like Joe Ryan, like Justine Steele. Uh,

(23:59):
maybe it's kind of Ivy, who's in that next tier
where it's like okay, like they're saved, but how much
stealing do they have? And then that's kind of what
you're you were kind of looking at too, where it's like,
all right, well, I get it, like Reagan's gonna be risky.
But if I'm making Joe Ryan like my SP two
for example, how much am I really going to get
out of Joe Ryan? And I'm not knocking Ryan. It's

(24:20):
some similar to Nola kind of where it's like, you know,
Ryan was a thirty six best starter. He was fine,
you know if he drave his an SB two and
he delivered SP three value. I don't think you were
you know, you know, crying about it. But it is
that idea of like what are you looking for here?
You're looking for you know, hoping to hit the jackpot,
or you're just hoping to get like a plugger.

Speaker 3 (24:43):
I am much more comfortable doing that for an SB
two than one to.

Speaker 1 (24:48):
Get the plugger, get the reliable.

Speaker 2 (24:50):
No no, to get to get more.

Speaker 3 (24:52):
Well, actually I'd like to get the you know, in
my ideal draft, you get the you get the ace,
then you all the the inning sky, and then for
your SP three you get some risk. But you know,
we don't live in an ideal world.

Speaker 1 (25:08):
Well, and the thing too is like the philosophy which
you and I embraced last year in the main event,
it's kind of important to point this out. My philosophy
is to take three of these top thirty pitchers and
not wait and then, you know, do that gap in
the middle where you're like, Okay, I took three of
the of the thirty highest drafted pictures. I can now

(25:29):
wait like another fifteen or twenty pitchers before I take
my SP four. So that's part of it too. Like
I think that it was that middle zone of pictures
and what we'll talk about as we get to next year,
Like that didn't work out as well as it has
in previous years, because there are some very good pictures
in that that thirty one to forty five bucket or so,

(25:50):
But generally speaking, that's where I like to live, Like
they kind of be like, well, I'd rather take three
pictures here and hope that you know, all three of
them like work out and I you know, of the thirty,
you know that the four negatives. There were four negatives
in that top thirty. So that's kind of what the
philosophy is, which is like, well, I'm avoiding the damage,
I hope, and yeah, look at look at these four pictures.

(26:13):
I don't think I had eye musk grow, but the
hit that was it like the other three I didn't have.
I'd have the Zarto, Miller or Strider anywhere.

Speaker 2 (26:22):
To the three star tier.

Speaker 3 (26:23):
And you know, this is sort of the fat middle
that you're you're trying to you know, you're not really
trying to shop in. And yeah, as you point out,
there were a lot of hits in this tier, but
you know, taken as a as a whole, historically, it's
going to be a lot more fungible than the top

(26:45):
two tiers, or you know specifically that I guess that's
what thirty to sixty.

Speaker 1 (26:52):
Yeah, you know it's thirty. It's thirty. Oh, it's like
thirty one sixty thirty one. Philosophical thing and and some
some of this is FBC because I think in local
leagues or like non overall contest leagues, pitchers are more
spaced out. And that's part of my argument. So if
the thirty first pitcher was Chris Bassett with an ADP

(27:12):
of one to nineteen and the sixtiest pitcher was Charlie
Moore with an ADP of two ten, I kind of
look at it like, well, there's so much risk there. Typically,
like historically speaking, where it's like, oh okay, well if
you got a Monoga or Bryce Miller around one sixty, congratulations.
But that's just a very atypical result. And this is

(27:35):
why I like tracking this year over year because and
this is why I document it because I you know,
I'm not going to lie. But if you look at
you know that those positive starters in the SB three
band they earned one hundred and the positive earners are
one hundred and forty, and that's much higher than the
previous two years. But that just tells you it's a
typical and I'm be willing to bet that number is

(27:56):
going to go down in twenty twenty five just because
that's it usually does.

Speaker 3 (28:00):
Another thing about avoiding that a middle is that when
you start you know, drafting pictures. Again, more than likely
someone in that tier. You know, your highest ranked person
that's left over in that tier will fall to you.
So you're you're very likely going to end up with
with someone in that tier.

Speaker 2 (28:18):
Anyway.

Speaker 1 (28:18):
The thing is like there's one hundred there were one
hundred and one pictures last year taking the active or starters,
like take it in the active phase. You're absolute right,
Like the further down you get, the more variability there is.
So there's going to be somebody you like, you know,
let's say if you you know, you do what I'm
suggesting and take your first three pictures, you know, in

(28:40):
the top thirty. So if you're down in like SB
forty six through sixty and you're like, oh no, I'm
not going at an arm I like, it's like no,
you'd be surprised, Like you have to you have to
guess correctly, like you you can't, you know, take Justin
Ferlander or Walker Buehler and Brian Woo might not be
there for you, but you know you got Christopher Sanchez

(29:01):
or like we did, like Nestor Cortez is your sp four.
Cortez wasn't a wonderful outcome but he was. He was
fine as an spfore.

Speaker 2 (29:10):
He was fine.

Speaker 3 (29:11):
But let's let's I'm not going to read all the
pictures in this tear. They're about twenty five or so
of them, but I will just highlight the big The
big earners were Chris Saylee at thirty two, showed Abanaga
twenty four, just about twenty four, Bryce Miller right around

(29:34):
twenty three, and then you had, you know a few
people in the teens like Hunter Green, Michael King, Bailey Ober,
the aforementioned Tanner Biby who who did that did this
the the service, did us the service of finishing pretty
much exactly with the value we drafted him at.

Speaker 1 (29:56):
I mean, he was he was our ace, right, even
though he wasn't really like but he well it's because
Pablo Lopez, who we glossed over was was not the
ace we were hoping he would be.

Speaker 2 (30:08):
Yeah, uh, it's just funny. I mean, you're right, but
it was, I mean, for a periods was our right.

Speaker 3 (30:14):
But yes, over the course, I say, the Biby was, yeah,
just in terms of earnings. Yeah, So thoughts about I mean,
we've already sort of talked conceptually about a lot of
these pictures I mean, you do have like a number
of pictures that that really that you know, you invested

(30:37):
a fair amount of draft capital in and we're pretty much,
you know, not not usable after a certain point. I mean,
Jordan Montgomery was the.

Speaker 2 (30:45):
Big one here.

Speaker 1 (30:46):
It was. It was terrible.

Speaker 3 (30:48):
If you took Walker Buehler, you know, it was gonna
be a waight Verlander also.

Speaker 2 (30:55):
Pretty bad. I can't remember how much of the year
he was he was injured.

Speaker 1 (30:59):
But well then and then and then at the end
when he did come back, like I held on to him,
but he was he was terrible. I mean, he he looked,
he looked on and you know, maybe maybe he's somebody
will you know, sign him and and take that ride again.
And then the other the other side is and this
is the thing I think you were trying to get
at two, like someone like Aaron Savali, you know, negative earner,

(31:21):
sub replacement. But I'm willing to bet that he was
dropped in a lot of places, picked up as a brewer,
you know, uses a matchup play. He had three five
through our area for the brewers, and I know it's
usual thing where it's like, how the hell did they
do that? You know, and his FIP and his supporting
numbers are worse. But you know, for fantasy, it doesn't matter.
It's like, well whatever, like I'll I'll take those serviceable

(31:42):
numbers for a back end starter. That That's kind of
what's tricky here too, is like some of these pictures.
Jo hunter Brown was also like that, I'm only to
bet some people dropped Hunter Brown and Shallower Leagues early
before he picked it up. Oh yeah, that's the other
that's the other tricky part about this, this kind of
list is that you're going to have pictures outside of

(32:04):
people like Shane Bieber and Christian Xavier who were just
hurt and dropped, You're going to have people who you know,
pick pictures up. And then the other side of it
is that I think this is where I see people
and I've done this too, like mess up. Somebody keeps
slipping and slipping and slipping, and you just have such
a hard time letting go right because you're like, oh,
he was so good in the first half, like he's

(32:26):
gonna bounce back, like I know it. And the picture
I'm looking as Mitch Keller, by the way, like if
you if you had said in in you know, in
the middle of the season with Mitch Keller, a three
four six c R with one hundred and five strikeouts's
going to be sub replacement. I would look at you like, oh,
come on, like that, that's not possible. And he barely
was sub replacement, like he's just below that one dollar number.

(32:47):
But yeah, he was. And I think in some ways
that's the true that's the true sub replacement. When I
think you were trying to get at we were talking
before the show, which is you know, it's not the
pictures like Javier where it's like, yeah, it's it's dunk
that you took him in the eleventh round, had to
cut him, but at least you could try with somebody
else whereas chances they are good. With Mitch Keller, you

(33:07):
were just rolling him out there up until near the
very end.

Speaker 2 (33:13):
Yeah.

Speaker 3 (33:13):
Absolutely, And it's so hard with the the young pitchers
where you're you know, there's no reason for you to
not think that this isn't you know, them taking a
step forward, and it's just, you know, it's kind of
unimaginable to cut someone like that.

Speaker 1 (33:30):
Yeah, I mean the other the other well, the other
thing too is with younger pitchers compared to older pitchers,
is you know, someone like a Merrill Kelly, someone like
Chris Bassett, Like if you watch them pitch, especially Bassett,
Like even Bassett when he's going, well, you it always
feels like a horror movie. It's like, well, I like

(33:51):
he's a he's a pitcher, like right, you know, and
even Kelly. And I'm not knocking them, they're you know,
I mean, hell, they're major league pitchers. They're way better
at what they do and anything I've I've ever done.
But like Mitch Keller, on the other hand, when you
watch him and he's on, you're like, holy crap, Like
Mitch Keller looks like he could be a top fifteen
arm like for a for a whole season if he

(34:11):
pitches like this every five days. But of course that's
the rub and and you know, to get into this
broad macro, you know that. That's why, like I always say,
like after that top thirty, like don't don't get sucked in, like,
don't don't get too excited. Don't yet. Yes, you're going
to miss on a few of these pictures. But for
the most part, there's still too much variability here.

Speaker 3 (34:35):
There's also quite a number of older pitchers. You know,
sort of on the downslope of their careers. And there
there's the you know, we we can we can point
to to jessin Berlander, you darbish, although I know he
let missed a lot.

Speaker 2 (34:51):
Of time, he's clearly uh, you know, on the on
the downslope. Even Cole when he came back.

Speaker 3 (34:58):
Was was clearly not the picture he was before. But
then you've got Chris fucking Sale to like, come out
and have just a career close to a career year,
I'd say, and ruin this narrative of or the at
least the idea I had in my head that you know,
you really wanted to stay away from these previously great pitchers.

Speaker 1 (35:19):
Oh, I was so out on Sale, and I mean,
I'll be honest, Like the thing about Sale, and I
think I feel this way about Jacob de Grob I'm
going to twenty twenty five is like, you know, what
if you're going to get this kind of year out
of Sale, a guy who pitched you know, one hundred
and fifty innings or so in the last three years.

(35:39):
I didn't pitch twenty twenty, but I won't you forget
that like the last three years combined like well, God,
bless like congratulations, like you you did it. It's just
one of those things where it's like, Okay, I got it.
He was a bargain and he could have done this,
but really, did anyone think that this is like the
likely outcomes is like eighty good Chris Sale innings before
he got hurt. Like that, That's what it. That felt

(36:00):
like the good outcome to me coming into the season.

Speaker 3 (36:03):
Yeah yeah, no, me too. I mean, tip your cap.
He did the thing. I'm definitely not going to be on.

Speaker 1 (36:10):
Board, but I was all but I was wrong. But
the other side of this, I hear people take a
victory lap and I'm kind of like, well, okay, like
oh he was going to Atlanta and they're pitching coach like, oh,
come on you you didn't know, like nobody knew like
it just it was one of the biggest was the
most surprising seasons that I think we've seen from a

(36:30):
pitcher in some time.

Speaker 3 (36:33):
Yeah, and you know, not the level of performance not
as surprising as the fact that he did it the
entire year.

Speaker 2 (36:41):
You know that that to me was the big the
big shocker. Should should we get onto the two star tier?
I mean, it's it's kind of disgusting. You.

Speaker 1 (36:52):
Let's see how many pictures are here at ten twenty
twenty three, so at least there's there's fewer pictures. But yes,
this is this is where the grossest kind of really rears.
It's it's ugly head and yeah, outside of the aforementioned
well you can go through. But there's two pitchers who
earned in double digits, positively in double digits. And one

(37:14):
of them was Lugo who he mentioned, and the other
was was Nathany Evaldi. It's it's an ugly group.

Speaker 3 (37:20):
Yeah, I mean a lot of a lot of red
ink here. I you know, I don't even want to
do the roll call that I won't shame those who underperformed.
I mean my my thinking with of course, at the
end of your staff, right.

Speaker 2 (37:40):
In a fifteen teen mixed league.

Speaker 3 (37:44):
You're gonna have a lot of churn, right, You're always
gonna have a lot of churn. But this I think
ideally you don't want the churn to necessarily start as
early as it does. Uh, you know in the two
stars here, because you know, let's let's be like most
or many of these pictures were if you if you

(38:05):
drafted them, you did not stick with them so.

Speaker 1 (38:07):
Well, you know, the key to our success and main event,
like I keep thinking back to this is the fact
that I mean our relative success is the fact that
we didn't have that church. Yeah, we we took Louis
Viarland and we dropped him very quickly, but and we
made up for that by getting like Brady Singer in
the reserve rounds. But for the most part, our success

(38:28):
was that we didn't have that churn, that we had
a pretty reliable group of pictures and we made a
couple of agent pickups that we mostly rolled out there.
And you're right, like that that's the problem, which is
if you're churning and churning and churning, we'll get this.
We talk about the free agents. There just aren't a
lot of free agents. Like there's not nearly as many pictures.

(38:50):
And this is what gets lost in analysis. Like every week,
like I write a fab column and there's podcasts and
it's like, this picture's great, this picture is great matchups,
this picture is on a roll. You don't need two
or three starts when when you're in a deep league
the whole season at least a couple of months to
carry you through and that's the problem. There's always going
to be a picture out there, who's who's a good matchup?

(39:12):
Is it a role for a starter or two. But
what you need in a deep league is you need
somebody who's going to like really carry you through for
at least a month or two, like not for a week.

Speaker 2 (39:23):
Yeah, And I think some of that was just lucky
for us.

Speaker 3 (39:26):
Sure, you know that, you know we did not only
did we get some people that we could roll out
most of the year in the endgame, like like Singer,
but you know, we got someone like Josey Quintana who
became a mostly every week starter. So yeah, So I mean,
you know, I think we can analyze this to a
point and then sometimes you got to get lucky. But yeah,

(39:48):
I'm imagining an alternative reality where where we were churning,
you know, four or five starters on a weekly basis,
and I think if you end up in that situation,
you're probably not going to succeed in the way that
you want to.

Speaker 1 (40:05):
No. No, And that's really it's kind of the unfortunate
like dirty secret of deep leagues, which is both those
things are right, which is there's some luck to be sure,
because as I said, it's sort of this whole idea.
I always think about that. There's an old joke about
why you know, if the if the guy writing the
blackjack book that you can buy for ten dollars at

(40:27):
the airport is such a great player, why is he
writing a book. He should be making millions at the casino. Like,
he doesn't even need to write a book, right, because
he's a millionaire. He's a multimillionaire. And it's sort of
like that was starting pitching advice when someone's like, well,
you know you don't need to take pictures, take pictures late. Well, well,
if that worked, everybody would do it, and pictures would
go in the eighth or ninth round at the earliest

(40:48):
because we could just grab our gems late. Like we
know it doesn't work that way like it typically works.
Where if you got like, look, I'm not dismissing people
got logo, but there was some luck in getting said
Lugo and having him turned into an ace that that's
not the typical outcome.

Speaker 2 (41:06):
Yeah, no, Lugo.

Speaker 3 (41:09):
Pitch has pitched in the two Just to shift this
to Lugo, because I have the stat in front of me.
In the last two years, he has pitched three hundred
and fifty four innings.

Speaker 2 (41:21):
With with the Padres and the Royals.

Speaker 3 (41:25):
Without looking, do you know how many years he pitched
in the previous seven years with the.

Speaker 1 (41:30):
Mets, how many yearnings?

Speaker 2 (41:33):
How many innings you pitched?

Speaker 1 (41:35):
I mean he was a reliever mostly like total, yeah,
four hundred before.

Speaker 3 (41:42):
But but you know, I mean still to the point
I guess I'm cutely making is you know.

Speaker 1 (41:48):
I forgot. I forgot he was a starter initially.

Speaker 2 (41:51):
Yeah, I mean he did start occasionally, but.

Speaker 3 (41:55):
You know, this is not this is not a career
path that we see and it's not one that we
could we could project for.

Speaker 2 (42:02):
Like future success. This feels like a unicorn to well.

Speaker 1 (42:05):
That, you know, an analyst was I saw it. I'm
not gonna mention it was, but he was, to give
a hint, he he was razzing the Mets for for
letting Lugo go, and I was kind of like, well, okay,
but the Padres signed to a one year deal and
then they even let him go. So it's not exactly

(42:25):
like people were like, oh, like like seth Lugo, like
we you know, the Mets let him go, let's all
rush after him. It kind of reminds me a little
bit of of J. D. Martinez, like back in the
day when when he was released you know, by by
the by the Astros and the signed him and and

(42:46):
people were or I think the Tigers it was like
a trade whatever. It was like the you know, got
him for nothing and people were making fun. No they
was issue released, people making fun. I'm like, well, okay,
but thirty teams could have claimed like him, and he
wound up with the Tigers like on an deal. Like
That's sort of what Lugo reminds me of, where it's like, oh, okay,
I mean great, I really like him, and he's done

(43:07):
a great job and he deserves all success. But I
don't think anybody in Major league or Fantasy Baseball saw
him coming.

Speaker 2 (43:15):
No.

Speaker 3 (43:15):
No, And you know, if you did take your victory lap,
but you know that doesn't mean that you can you know,
you can, well, there's done him in the future, and
then go out find next year.

Speaker 2 (43:26):
Seth Lugo.

Speaker 1 (43:26):
I was going to say, there's not a there's not
a process lesson here. I don't really look at any
of these pictures and like this is a difference between
sale and say I can look at Sale and say, well,
I could see why you might have rolled the dice
and taken him earlier, like if he was, if he's healthy,
an ace or a new race was there with Lugo.

(43:46):
I'm kind of like, Okay, well, there's no way anyone
saw this coming. I would have guessed if you took Lugo,
you would have thought, well, twenty twenty three with more innings,
and if that's what I get, if I get a
three six and you know, strikeouts and a decent a
decent whip, or when he had a one two of
a twenty two or three, like good, Like that's that's fine,

(44:07):
Like I can accept that. That's yeah, it's useful.

Speaker 2 (44:11):
Yeah there, Yeah, And there are a few pictures in
this tier.

Speaker 3 (44:15):
You mentioned Nestra Cortes earlier, but like getting those like
single digit five to ten dollars earners can be really
like that's that's the kind of spackle that you need.

Speaker 2 (44:27):
Not not many of them here.

Speaker 1 (44:30):
I mean cutter, cutter, Crawford. You know, I set out
of a couple of places. You say, Kakuci, these are
pictures that like, truthfully, like I like, I'm surprised by
at the end of the year because I didn't have
them Kuchi on any teams, and I go back and
look and it's like whoa, Like you say, Kakuchi having
two hundred and six strikeouts like that? That was eye
opening to me. I was like what, like how how

(44:53):
did he do that?

Speaker 3 (44:54):
Like?

Speaker 1 (44:54):
But how did I miss that?

Speaker 2 (44:55):
Like?

Speaker 1 (44:55):
How would you know? And Yeah, the rest of the
numbers weren't anything spectacular, but getting two hundred plus strikeouts
from a pitcher at this point in the draft is great.
I mean unless he destroys your you know, you're a whip, which.

Speaker 3 (45:07):
Exactly as a as someone who had Kokuchi in my
home league, it was.

Speaker 2 (45:11):
It was not not always a fun ride, but yeah,
the strikeouts were definitely a.

Speaker 3 (45:16):
Help going into the one star tier. Again, what about
twenty five ish names here? You know, again we'll kind
of keep it with with sort of global stuff. Obviously,
there was one picture that stood out in this tier,
and that was Paul Skeens, who earned twenty four ninety

(45:41):
six by your calculations. Yeah, a slightly better tier than
the previous one.

Speaker 2 (45:49):
As far as averaging.

Speaker 3 (45:51):
Average in the two star was negative three eighty eight
and the average in the one star is negative dollar
thirty three.

Speaker 1 (45:58):
So something, something that's really fascinating is and you'll you'll
find this on my article at FBP, is three of
the last four years the SP sixes have been better
than the SP five's in the draft. It's really it's
really interesting, just one of those things where it's like,
well if yeah, and the SP five point was you know,

(46:19):
I'm trying to like go back and look here, like
so the sixty like first pitchures that's like two fifteen,
and the SP six has started to sixty five. So
really that's kind of the point. And again it's born
out like again not to pick up lu again, but
Lugo was pretty much the SP five who provided value.
It's sort of the idea like, well, like once you
get to two fifteen or so wherever that point is

(46:41):
this year, you might as well just wait, Like you
might as well just wait until like to sixty two seventy,
because you're right, you're just you're just like you know,
blindfolded or you know, flipping a coin like that's that's
what you're doing.

Speaker 3 (46:55):
Yeah, And the same point I think goes that we
were making earlier is that you know you can wait
and you know, get someone get a bargain at least
by by ADP, you know that where your rankings are
a little higher on someone than an ADP or well
in your particular draft.

Speaker 1 (47:14):
So yeah, and there's the other thing too, which is
if you you know, take a picture at three you know,
ADP three hundred, you know it was D. L. Hall
last year was right around there, and he stinks or
he does nothing. It's like, okay, well it's a three
hundred pick. I don't care. You take someone at two
twenty and a fifteen teen league. There's a little more
pain with that. Yeah. Oh, you know, I could have

(47:34):
gotten somebody, you know, a hitter who it was my
third quarter infielder or my second catcher or whatever it was.
It was like, you know, maybe this person could have
been useful for me and not just a coin flip
that I that I lost.

Speaker 2 (47:46):
Yeah, no, that's true. I mean just thinking of pictures that.

Speaker 3 (47:50):
That we we had in those ranges, like Nest Cortes
versus Dean Kramer.

Speaker 2 (47:57):
Yeah, it's much easier to move on from a from
a D. Kramer.

Speaker 1 (48:01):
Yeah, let's see.

Speaker 3 (48:04):
You know a few of the hits in this tier
other than schemes, Jack Flaherty earned almost twenty Sean Manya
was sixteen fifty seven.

Speaker 1 (48:15):
Did you have did you have this? Did you have
Manaia anywhere?

Speaker 3 (48:21):
I believe I had him either in were for TGFP.

Speaker 1 (48:26):
You know, it's really funny about manaias I had him
in tout Wars, and my pitching in the first half
was like such an injury disaster that I kind of
had to hang on to him when he was just
kind of okay because it's like, well, I've got nothing
like else going for me, And then when he picked
it up, I'm like, well, this is a pleasant surprise.
But it wasn't like I believed him. It was more like, well,

(48:48):
I have to have a warm body to keep throwing
out there when like Snell and Verlander and Musgrove and
I don't remember all the names were hurt. Yeah.

Speaker 2 (48:57):
Do you think you would have now Coalt Wars? You don't.
You don't have a bench in that league, right, So.

Speaker 1 (49:05):
No, you do. You do have a bench. Okay, it's
a limited it's similar to TGFBI. I think it's a
six it's a six pitcher or six player bench. I'm sorry,
So you do have a bench.

Speaker 2 (49:17):
Remember, Yeah?

Speaker 3 (49:18):
Yeah, So do you actually cut him if you'd had
other options you've cut an eye.

Speaker 1 (49:24):
Probably not. I think I would have cut him. The
weird paradox about league like that is you cut a
picture like Manai if your team is doing really well
and you have a lot of like pictures doing well,
and you're like, well, I'm not using this guy. He
kind of is what he is. You know, he's a
pitcher who typically throws up a four E R. You know,
I don't see anything that's going to change with him.

(49:46):
It's time to to let go. You know. It's really funny.
Our friend of the show, Mikey Heado has said pre
twenty twenty four that I just didn't have that like
one pit put away pitch or you kind of watch
him and you remember The Giants twenty three You probably
saw this where it's like, yes, he gets a lot
of strikeouts, but there's nothing in his game where you're like, oh,
like I have total faith in him. And then of

(50:09):
course the story of the story goes. You watch Chrs. Sale,
He's like, oh I should do that, and yeah, he
was quite Sale, but he would suddenly had this pitch
where it's like, oh gee, now he's he's really difficult
to hit.

Speaker 2 (50:20):
Yeah, yeah, and he's he'll be a met once again.

Speaker 1 (50:24):
So I'll be a Met for you know, for for
three years. Yeah. I'm assuming that no money he's making,
he's not going to get traded very very easily, even
if the Mets go south, which I don't think they will.

Speaker 3 (50:37):
I will say, like a small, a small pat on
the back to myself, and I did try to get
clarity where possible, so you know, again.

Speaker 1 (50:48):
He's he's another one. I got my home league for
like practically nothing, and it wasn't even I wanted. It
was just like, well, for isn't ale only like I
was like for three or four bucks like whatever like that.
That's fine.

Speaker 3 (51:01):
Ranger Suarez is on this list and he's actually, you know,
as far as he earned less than I would have thought.

Speaker 2 (51:09):
And this I think gets to our point, the point
that you make.

Speaker 3 (51:15):
Or that that we seem to make every like May,
which is about the the outsized importance that commentators sent
a place on first month statistics, and man Suarez kind
of had a stinker of the second half.

Speaker 1 (51:32):
Well, so it's funny I had him in labor and
I would have guessed the opposite I would have thought
he would have been lower, because that's the thing that
stuck in my memory was how bad and then injured
he was second half I almost forgot, like how great
that first half was, like where you know, the first
two months he had seventy two innings and he had
an areaand or two I think like he was, Yeah,

(51:54):
it was spectacular, and yeah, some of that was was
babbit and whatnot, but yeah, he just looked tremendous. I
think I heard and he came back and just didn't
he didn't look like the same picture. I guess.

Speaker 3 (52:06):
The last thing I would say about this tier is
weirdly like the pictures in in this tier. I mean,
of course, you know, this is the benefit of of
hindsight and you know, the relative disaster of the two
star tier, but like I look at a lot of
these pictures, I'm like, this is you know, this is
still a pretty pretty interesting.

Speaker 2 (52:24):
Uh tier. There's you know, there's there's a lot of pictures.

Speaker 3 (52:27):
That yeah that I feel like, you know, have some
that I'm not you know, totally out on going into
the next year. Any do you have anything else on
one star before?

Speaker 1 (52:43):
I don't create so, I mean I guess the one
the one out kind of again that this is the
whole like replacement level. How it's kind of bs like
you know Shane Boss and leagues where people picked him
up after it came up off the il or you know,
he was another picture speaking of taut like tow does
it onlimit I So I nabbed him, thinking well, I'll
just you know, keep him, you know, as long as

(53:05):
I can. And he was useful in the second half,
not great, but useful.

Speaker 3 (53:12):
In the In the reserve of pictures who returned positive value,
I'm just going to read through the double digit earners
and these these are pictures below ADP like what three
three fifty around there something like that.

Speaker 1 (53:31):
Yeah, it's a little a little a little over three
fifty because it starts with like wherever like the I
think it was like three forty six.

Speaker 3 (53:38):
But yeah, okay, we've got Runel Blanco, Louis Heel, Garrett Crochet,
Nick Martinez, Tanner Hauck, and Jameson taie On.

Speaker 2 (53:51):
I want to give a shout out to.

Speaker 3 (53:53):
Spencer Schwellenbach, who returned almost eight dollars in like two
thirds of the season, but after his first six starts
was pitching like a cy young candidate, anyone in this
tier that.

Speaker 2 (54:06):
I mean, we we talked.

Speaker 3 (54:07):
We had a little text exchange about Crochet and you know,
and I was surprised that he only earned you know,
twelve twelve seventy one. I mean he he earned less
than Louise Heal. He earned less than Renel Blanco by
fair shout.

Speaker 1 (54:22):
Well, I mean the thing with Crochet is they White
Sox pretty much like shut him down. I didn't really
shut him down, but from an innings perspective.

Speaker 2 (54:33):
Yeah, but what did he throw? He threw like one hundred.

Speaker 1 (54:35):
And one hundred and forty six. It was like one
hundred and forty six. But you know, from he didn't
have more than four innings in the start after from
July on, and that that's kind of a this is
reflecting the values. But that was sort of another problem
with him too, which is like, Okay, if you had
that great first half and he's out there doing that,

(54:55):
You're like, okay, well, like now what like I know
the I know, like the rate SATs are gonna be good,
the stringers gonna be good, but I'm not getting any
wins from this pitcher. And yeah, I know it's the
White Sox.

Speaker 2 (55:07):
Yeah, yeah, you wouldn't have gotten.

Speaker 1 (55:09):
But well, although I mean part of the reason that
it wins is because they were crchet. All of all
of his six wins came in those first that first
part of the season, so if you know, if he
had gone six or seven innings, they might have gotten
a few more wins.

Speaker 3 (55:23):
So yeah, still, still the e ra A three fifty
eight was was kind of a drag on the value. Yeah,
so you know.

Speaker 2 (55:35):
He's it'll be interesting.

Speaker 1 (55:37):
Yet up by by the way, he had a he
had a four eight four r A after the White Sox,
uh pull pull back on him, just to kind of
throw that out there, so that that's that's really a
large part of the problem is Yeah, sixty eight strikeouts
in forty four and two thirds innings, you know, oh
and six but but really, you know, when you have

(56:00):
close to a five ERA, I need a one to
four whip too. So it's just all it took. H
had one like clunker of a start in the abbreviates
start against the Cubs. That really drags you down when
you're you're not getting the volume to make up for it.

Speaker 2 (56:14):
Mm hmm.

Speaker 3 (56:15):
Yeah, I mean, still you got You got your two
hundred strikeouts and only one hundred and forty six innings,
which is pretty crazy. Renelle Blanco was kind of the
as I put it, the anti Crochet in that, you know,
pretty much all of his value came.

Speaker 2 (56:30):
From er and and wins.

Speaker 3 (56:35):
He thirteen wins and then a two point eight e
RA but you know, decent strikeout, but it's just under
a strikeout printing ended up with one sixty six in
one sixty seven, one hundred and sixty seven innings. Yeah,
I mean that's the thing where you know, if you
got on early after the no hitter, you just never

(56:58):
had a reason to get off the Ronow Blanco train.

Speaker 2 (57:02):
Did you did you have I can't remember if you
had Blanco anywhere?

Speaker 1 (57:05):
I yeah, I had him in a that ale league
that I do the CBS one.

Speaker 2 (57:10):
Right.

Speaker 1 (57:11):
It's funny because the guy dropped for him was was
Kirby Yates like in the preseason, so you know, I mean,
I had a bunch of closers, so it didn't really matter,
but it was just funny that that's the guy dropped.

Speaker 3 (57:22):
So yeah, yeah, I mean, I don't know if there's
much to say about this tier as a whole. Yeah,
these are just you know, you said this was a
smaller selection than you Well what.

Speaker 1 (57:34):
I was good. What I was saying was that so
if you look at the ADP, the ADP between like
three forty six and four fifty or like the reserve picks,
and that doesn't mean that these none of these pictures
were available like later Like I'm sure people dropped Nick
Martinez or Boten Francis, but these were truly the reserve picks.
So the ones after pick four fifty or the ones

(57:56):
like Schwannbacher, Tobias Spiers who are blank, those were the
free agents. So there were eleven true free agents, like
and that goes from Blanco down to I think Colin Ray,
who returned positive value, and that's much lower than in
previous seasons. So I just get that. That's what jumped
out of me. It's like wow, Like if you were
in a league with like deep reserves or you know,

(58:19):
was harder to you know, pick people up via free agency.
It was difficult to find like replacements. And I think
that's why people were so happy about Colin Ray. Not
that Colin Ray was great shakes, but because he was
a serviceable pitcher, where it's like okay, like there's nothing
out there, like I have to keep him like I
have to keep rolling him out there. We probably all
were in those positions in deeper leagues where we had

(58:41):
a pitch or two like that where it's like, well,
this guy's not wonderful, but I need the innings and
he's he's there and he's not killing me. Yeah.

Speaker 3 (58:51):
I mean that that's I'm looking having to be looking
at David Peterson and that seems to be like, yeah,
that's exactly exactly bring singers.

Speaker 1 (59:00):
Brady's singer outside of like you know, a good Month
really kind of fit that too, where you know, he
just really seemed to be that guy I was like, okay,
like fine, and you know even Jake Irvan Irvin was
that guy for a while, and I think Tyler Anderson
was that guy for a while too, where you know,
he was he was pretty good and then people like
the bomb's gonna fall out and it, you know, finally

(59:21):
did all right.

Speaker 3 (59:24):
I think we've we've done uh some justice to We've
started Picture Landscape from twenty twenty four.

Speaker 1 (59:31):
Yeah, we've we've mined this, uh, we've mined this particularly
well it's it's flirting outside and there's there's a little
beautiful amount of snow on the roof, so it's probably
a good time to stop talking about baseball and close
out the podcast. Thank you once again for listening to

(01:00:14):
episode three twenty of Flags Fly Forever, a Baseball Perspectives
Fantasy Baseball podcast. So we're going to do things a
little bit differently this year. We are going to do
our positional previews earlier than the week they're coming out.
It'll be a nice little sneak preview of the content
on the website. So on the next podcast, you're going

(01:00:35):
to hear us talk about first base and that's going
to come out late in the week before the positional
preview start, which is on January thirteenth. So really exciting news,
kind of hot off the presses. I just got approval
from the president of BP to do that. As John
and I were talking to me. John is just finding

(01:00:55):
out about this. It was John's idea, but we didn't
get the say so for until now. So yeah, this
is gonna be really exciting stuff. So look, next time
we'll be talking about first basement and about twenty twenty five,
we'll be joining all the other podcasts. I've been talking
about this for three or four months.

Speaker 2 (01:01:12):
We finally talk I can finally look at at ADP.

Speaker 1 (01:01:15):
Now you haven't looked at it? Wow? Okay, No I haven't.

Speaker 2 (01:01:19):
Actually which you're looking.

Speaker 1 (01:01:21):
For about, I'm looking for about a week.

Speaker 3 (01:01:22):
So, but the schedule should be just to underscore what
Mike is saying. We will look to release these on Friday,
so the Friday will record it probably on a Wednesday
or Thursday, release it on Friday morning, you know, the
prior to the Monday where the the content, the positional

(01:01:45):
content will go up on the BP site. So you
listen on Friday and get a little sneak preview of
what has come in the next week.

Speaker 1 (01:01:56):
Yep. So for Mike, John Joel Hecklin, thank you very much. Yeah,
we'll be We'll be back next week.

Speaker 2 (01:03:04):
Ter