January 10, 2025 • 55 mins
Welcome to preview season 2025! We begin our positional previews with a corner that is not just cold, but downright Arctic (at least before cliimate change melted all of the sea ice) past a certain point. We have mild disagreements about Matt Olson and Josh Naylor, and I beef with Fangraphs over their disrespect of the great metropolis of Sacramento, California. We share skepticism about Michael Toglia and Cody Bellinger and dive in the deep water to find some bargains in the one-star tier.
Flags Fly Forever is a Baseball Prospectus podcast. For more fantasy baseball information, visit baseballprospectus.com and click on "Fantasy."
You can find Flags Fly Forever on Bluesky (@flagsflyforever.bsky.social). The hosts of Flags Fly Forever are Mike Gianella(@mikegianella.bsky.social) and Jon Hegglund(@jonhegglund.bsky.social). The producer of Flags Fly Forever is Jon Hegglund.
Special thanks to the awesome and generous Petite League for permission to use their track "Mets" for the intro and break music. Find their sweet lo-fi indie-pop sounds at petiteleague.com.
Flags Fly Forever is a Baseball Prospectus podcast. For more fantasy baseball information, visit baseballprospectus.com and click on "Fantasy."
You can find Flags Fly Forever on Bluesky (@flagsflyforever.bsky.social). The hosts of Flags Fly Forever are Mike Gianella(@mikegianella.bsky.social) and Jon Hegglund(@jonhegglund.bsky.social). The producer of Flags Fly Forever is Jon Hegglund.
Special thanks to the awesome and generous Petite League for permission to use their track "Mets" for the intro and break music. Find their sweet lo-fi indie-pop sounds at petiteleague.com.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:24):
Welcome to episode three twenty one. I almost said three two
to one of flags fly Forever, a baseball perspectives fantasy
baseball podcast. It's Mike Jianella. It's John Haglund. John, how
are you doing well?
Speaker 2 (00:39):
I don't know if our listeners could tune into our
pre recording conversation, which was, you know, heavy, I would
guess I would say, just talking about the world. But
I'm doing all right. It's a new year. We are
starting our positional previews, and I finally got off my
(01:02):
ass and started a blue Sky account. It's at flagsfly
forever dot besky dot Social. You can just search for
flags fly Forever in your blue Sky search bar. But
we're up to fifty followers, and you know, hopefully this
will be an account that grows as we make our
(01:22):
way through the preseason. So what are we previewing today, Michael?
Speaker 1 (01:27):
So interestingly, we usually start with catchers, but this year,
just based on the schedule, there's those two just things.
One is we're starting with first base and we're going
to do we always do a VP and lump in DHS,
which will do briefly. But the other thing that's a
little bit interesting is the articles at the website are
not up yet. Typically we roll this out at the
(01:49):
end of the week. But what we're doing is we're
doing the podcast first to kind of give you a
flavor for the articles at the website next week. So
you can listen to this, you can hear my in
John's opinion about you know, first Space and the tears,
and then you can go read everything next week that
I've written. You know that all the other writers at
Baseball Perspectives have written with the like twenty or so
(02:11):
articles will happen next week. I think it's a it's
a good way to do it. This. This is a
nice flavor. If you like listening and you know, really
a big reader, that's fine, but I would definitely recommend also,
you know, subscribing, you know, reading the articles. You know
this this is the time of year for fantasy where
you know, we're in our finest form. So enough with
(02:32):
the plug, let's uh, let's get started. So just to
kind of run through this for new listeners, we hope
we have a few uh. We we break our our
positions into tiers, and the way we do that, there's
a it's five star down to zero star if needed,
and we do this by rounds. Now we used to
(02:54):
buy like auction dollars, but I think that was a
little esoteric. H So the five star tier is round
one of two. It's the elite cream of the crop.
Four stars rounds three through six, still close to that,
three stars round seven through thirteen, two stars fourteen through
and John was in front of me, so I'm like
(03:15):
doing this off of memory fourteen through nineteen. Yeah, that's right.
And then the one star is like round twenty through
twenty three, and then the zero stars like round twenty four.
This is like fifteen team mixed. So it's deep. But
you can apply a lot of this to your leagues,
particularly with the top tiers. So any anything you want
(03:35):
to add, John, to clarify before we dive in.
Speaker 2 (03:39):
Nothing, really, I'll just say that we also have some
early ADP. I mean not that early. There have been
drafts going on for a while. I've got on you know,
I've pulled up sixty six Draft Champions results. I don't
know what you're working from, Mike, but.
Speaker 1 (03:59):
I always go off of the last fifties, so it'll
probably be similar. Okay, just to take out those like
really like super early drafts, I know some people will
go even like narrower than that, where they'll they'll just
do like the last eleven or ten. And I get that,
but I feel like the the sample at that point
is too small. But I think our numbers will be
(04:21):
pretty well.
Speaker 2 (04:22):
Tell me what date you're working from so we can
we can make a little sausage here.
Speaker 1 (04:27):
Okay, what day do you have? I have Let's see,
I have November fourth as the start date for me.
So yeah, that's still okay. Well, the thing the thing
about that, and this is where the sausage gets even wonkier.
So when I pulled this earlier today, it was fifty drafts.
Now it's fifty one. I really don't think it matters
all that much.
Speaker 2 (04:49):
So yeah, let's dive into the to the five star.
Speaker 1 (04:52):
Okay, uh, there's four names here and again remember there's
dhs and this is in order. You know, for name
pretty obvious, we have to talk about him much show Toddy,
Vladimir Greer Junior, Bryce Harper, and and Freddie Freeman. One
thing to know for all these, I put together my
ranks before I look at ADP. It just you know,
(05:15):
usually kind of typically happens that nothing at the top,
but there's be all that surprising, and so as it happens,
these four names are in the order that their ADP
currently is in, So nothing are shattering here.
Speaker 2 (05:28):
Yeah, I I also this year am ranking before I
look at ADP and before I look at your ranks, Mike,
and the one, the one this there's really not much
to talk about here. You know, Freeman has gone earlier
than Harper in years past, and you know it's a
(05:48):
bit of a fall off last year. Are you thinking,
you know, you're going to get basically the same Freddie Freeman,
but just age is going to maybe bring down on
the steals in particular, which sort of peaked in twenty
twenty three. You know, he's runs an RBI were fairly
(06:09):
low compared to his career standards. But you know that lineup,
you have to think that the RBI et least are
going to tick back up. And he's always been really
you know, strong in runs. So are we just splitting hairs? Hair?
And is it mainly the age that you're ticking Harper
ahead of Freeman?
Speaker 1 (06:27):
Yeah, it's the it's the age and the probable like
drop off and steals like even after the surgery, I
just imagine he's probably not going to be stealing you know,
what are you stealing twenty twenty three, like twenty.
Speaker 3 (06:40):
Like twenty twenty one or something, twenty twenty it was
twenty three bases Like, I think the safer bed is
probably like ten steals or so top so that that's
part of it.
Speaker 1 (06:51):
But to your point, like the other side of this
is that if Freeman's the number one first baseman like
next year. Yes, I'm concerned about the age, but it's
not like, you know, we'll get to him later. It's
not like Paul Goldschmidt, where he's a couple of years older.
You know, Freeman's still like I think thirty.
Speaker 2 (07:07):
Five, thirty five. Yeah.
Speaker 1 (07:09):
Yeah, So I'm a little worried, but I'm a little
worried where I'm like, okay, like he's a second round
pick for me, not a first round pick. I'm not
so worried that I'm like, oh gee, like I'm going
to fade Freddy Freeman. I don't want him, Like if
I if I get him in the middle of the
second round, I'd be very happy with that outcome.
Speaker 2 (07:27):
Okay, I don't. I don't really have much else to
add in this tier, it seems pretty cut drown. I
don't know if there's any one of the four you
want to mention.
Speaker 1 (07:36):
No, I mean just I just lad just to kind
of mention it briefly. There's you know, it looks like
the market recognizes this. He doesn't really run, I mean,
always run a little bit more. But there he's there's
value in being a four category stud even if he
doesn't hit like get to forty home runs, hits the
ball on the ground a lot, it just doesn't matter.
Like he's just such a great hitter. Another one just
(07:57):
perfectly comfortable. I think his ADP I'm showing is like fifteenth.
I have him like slightly higher at thirteenth. Again, like
a fine player to take at this point in the draft.
So yeah, that's not much here. This is the boring tier, folks.
I know some people will talk about this for you know,
twenty twenty five minutes. I don't think we really need
to do that.
Speaker 2 (08:17):
Now, let's get onto the great Matt Olsen debate.
Speaker 1 (08:20):
Oh boy, a debate already. So the four star tier
has has five players in it, and and this is
where the dhs are at least the ones. Really we're
talking about So we've got Matt Olsen, Brent Rucker, marcel
A Zuna, Pete Alonso, and Kyle Schwarber. So do you
(08:41):
want to start with Olsen or do you want to
since you already cute it up, I guess you should
start with Olsen.
Speaker 2 (08:48):
I was just looking at his you know, career stats,
and it does feel like twenty twenty three was maybe
the career year and anomaly. But you know, I just
I feel like it. Any I guess what I've Excuse me,
I guess what I feel like is the floor is
(09:09):
pretty high, especially I would say especially for power. Even
though he did have a sub thirty home run season
and there I still feel like with the battle Ball metrics,
he's still an elite power guy. I don't have a
(09:33):
It's not like I think Alonso is likely to like
I said, repeat that twenty twenty three, but I think
he's just going to, you know, fill up your power,
fill up your your accumulating stet. You're you're he's going
to compile and runs an RBI no no speed, which
(09:54):
is a bit of a problem. But you're not getting
speed really from him. Any First Baseman down in below Freeman,
so it's it's just a case of, you know, the
floor is fine. Looking at his ADP he is around
pick thirty six, so what early third round? I have
(10:14):
no problem like probably taking him at the two three
turn if I need a power bat and I'm not
going to get to pick for a while. So and
especially as we get down lower in the position, we'll
see that things dry up pretty quickly. So I just
think at this, you know, is because he is kind
of on an island as far as ADP for first basement,
so I would not hesitate to reach a few picks
(10:37):
just to lock up that power.
Speaker 1 (10:40):
Maybe I just don't like battles. And I've never really
I mean as a player, not as a person. I've
never really been in on him. And I think what
it is is that so one thing, you know, if
there's a one of these things is not like the other.
It is twenty twenty three, And I know that's not
what you're like arguing for. So if I look at
(11:00):
Olson and you're like, Okay, he's a thirty to thirty
five home run hitter, who's going to hit let's say,
I don't know, two fifty two fifty five? Is that?
Speaker 2 (11:08):
Yeah? Steamer has him at two fifty one.
Speaker 1 (11:11):
Okay, so he's a three category player. I guess my
thing is, I don't like taking a and I know
those three categories are great and important and positions week
I just don't like taking a three category player this early.
And yes, I know it's not that early. It's not
as early as he was going last year, which I
think was like seventeen or eighteen, but I'm still fading him.
(11:35):
I think I'd still rather just take a different player
at this point in the draft than kind of spend
my draft capitol on Olson. You don't necessarily need to
nail the pick here, but I would feel, you know,
unless he somehow does do he did in twenty twenty
three and hit two eighty three, I think I would
feel like, well, you know, if he hits thirty five
(11:55):
home runs and hits two fifty, I wouldn't be disappointed,
but I feel like I want a little more with
with a pick at this price.
Speaker 2 (12:03):
Yeah, that is fair, I think. Also we'll get to
I think the next the next tier, which might be
sort of where I would like to to be looking.
But for certain, depending on what you do in your
first in your first couple of rounds. I mean I
could see a team construction where where it would work,
(12:24):
and I really I feel like I really want to
get in early on first base because what we're looking
at after you know, pick what, certainly after pick two
hundred is just some very dicey options. So we'll we'll
just sort of agree to slightly discrimentals.
Speaker 1 (12:45):
And yeah, I think we're agreeing on that, and we'll
we'll get to that in the like tier when we
get to the three star tier. I do agree that
there's there is a fall off and there is a
like like price point where I'm client, well, I do
like some of the two star options, but I don't
like them as my primary first basement, like at that
(13:05):
point their corners, and you are right, I don't want
to you know, ride or die with somebody where it's like, oh,
I hope this is the year that he really you know,
bounces back or emerges, so for sure. So so from
that standpoint, and this is you know, something I want
to make sure I mentioned this last year first base
(13:25):
at a seven twenty four OPS. It was the worst
season for the position, most non strike season since nineteen
seventy six, and by adjusted OPS it was the worst
season since nineteen sixty three. So I bring that up
because sometimes I think you'll hear, oh, it's the worst ever,
Oh it's so bad, and there's a lot of hyperbole,
(13:47):
like this is not hyperbolic, Like it just was not
it isn't a good time for first base. So that's
probably the biggest argument for Olsen into a Lesuria Alonzo
is the fact that, like, well, I don't necessarily blame
someone for stretching if there's some fear about the position later,
if you don't like some of those three star names.
Speaker 2 (14:08):
Yeah, it's it's strange now that you mentioned the below
ops for the position. It's almost like you have to
get out of the mindset of my first basement should
have this profile, which I'm kind of contradicting myself, because
you know that that is what you're getting in Olson
and Alonso. Is that that old school first baseman profile.
(14:31):
But once you get down past let's say the next here,
it's sort of like you can't be worried about you
can't reach for what you think is going to be
possibly thirty home run power when you you know when
it could come with a lot of downsides, and you
just have to get a bat there and try to,
you know, find your power at other positions.
Speaker 1 (14:52):
Yeah, do we want to talk about these this trio
of dhs before we move or no?
Speaker 2 (14:58):
Yeah, I mean I look, I I am very very
upset that at Fangrafts. I'm going to call them out
specifically because I went to the roster resource page for
the Sacramento Athletics. Do do they give respect to the
city of Sacramento. They do not. They're just listed as athletics,
(15:20):
no city, no home, just just wandering in the night,
you know, Like, what the hell I noticed Sacramento.
Speaker 1 (15:29):
Maybe maybe they didn't want to call them sack. That
could be it.
Speaker 2 (15:34):
But Brent Rooker, let's maybe we talk a little about
Brent Rooker.
Speaker 1 (15:37):
Yeah, I like him a lot. Robert orr had a
good piece. It's like a redundancy.
Speaker 2 (15:43):
But he was podcast.
Speaker 1 (15:46):
Yeah, he was talking though about like, you know how Rooker.
You know, even though the strikeout profile remained high, the
way he changed his approach, Like Rooker hits the ball
so hard that he's just he's an elite. I don't
think that's something that's going to go away. I see people.
I don't want to say fading worker, but I see
some cynicism about him. I'm really high on Rooker. I
(16:11):
think I'm higher on him than almost anyone else. And
some of it is the park shift, and it's less
as Sacramento as a hitter haven and more than Oakland
was a pitcher's park, and so any move or virtually
any move out of there is going to be positive
for a hitter. I'm really I'm really high on Rooker.
I'm going to have to kind of be careful not
to like overdraft him this year. And the other two
(16:34):
are fine, Like I'm not knocking I was, you know,
or Schwarber, but of the of the three, I think
Rookers than what i'd want.
Speaker 2 (16:41):
Yeah, yeah, I'm still I'm still partially Schwarber, but I
might be a little optimistic about the average gains that
he posted last year. Just back to Rooker, it's interesting
looking at ADP and this will be sort of a
preview the Outfield episode, but he is right next to
(17:03):
his teammate Lawrence Butler, So that's kind of an interesting comparison.
You know, do you do you go for? I mean,
obviously Rookers ut only, but you know, different profile, different age,
you know, different point in their career arc and yet
I think both really really interesting players who have the
(17:25):
potential to really take off in in Sacramento.
Speaker 1 (17:30):
Yeah, you know, I'm looking at Rookers projection and the
thing is, it's like I could see the clawback in
the power. But I just I don't think it's get
two forty three. I think the average will be more
in like the two sixtiest range. That's just my my
feel on him. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (17:45):
Interesting. I guess I'm still a little nervous about the
strikeout rate, and to me, that always, you know, that
plus the age, you know, always makes me worry a
little bit that there could be a quick drop. But yeah,
you know, I trust Robert Orr and you know, he
just got a new contract. And normally I would say, well,
the team must have, you know, must have some some
(18:06):
data that you know drove their decision. But it is
the a sou you know, Lord knows what is driving
their decisions.
Speaker 1 (18:14):
But yeah, I don't, I don't know. Yeah, I don't
know if I have anything else about these guys. Yeah,
Schwarbridge just I guess the average variability a little bit
with him, you know, very very streaky player, you know,
if you have him. But that's true for anybody with
like a low like potential batting average. Should we move
(18:35):
to the three stars here?
Speaker 2 (18:37):
Yeah, I think this is the most interesting too.
Speaker 1 (18:39):
There's there's more names, and yeah, I think to the
point we've talked about, uh that this is where there's
a drop off. So let's let's uh, let's start here.
There's eight names all first basement two. By the way,
something I should have pointed out before we started. So
the way we do things as well is that we
do positional priorities. So you won't hear about Louise or
(19:00):
Eyes like tonight, he'll be with the second baseman. So
anyone who's like a first base or first base outfielder
will be included this week. Otherwise, if they have multi
position eligibility, we'll talk about them another time. So there's
eight names here. There's Josh Naylor, Christian Walker, Tristan Cassas,
Bennie Pasquentino, Spencer Steer, Cody Bellinger. And I think this
(19:23):
is where the drop is that you were talking about
Andy Diaz and Michael Tuglia. So anyone in particular you
want to start with.
Speaker 2 (19:32):
Here, Yeah, I mean I kind of want to talk
about most of these, but we don't have to spend
much time. But I found myself when I was doing
my ranks, I have I have Naylor a little lower,
like I have him below Walker Cassus and Pasquentino. You,
(19:54):
I mean, Adp is much higher on Naylor. He's at
the top of this this sort of chunk, but they're
all pretty close. They're all within about twenty picks down
to Bellinger at least. And you also, I think had
you have Naylor a top this year? So what's your
(20:14):
read on you know why Naylor stands out above like
Walker Cassus in Pascentino in particular.
Speaker 1 (20:23):
I so my thing about Naylor, it's one of those things.
I think he's a terrific hitter, and I kind of
in cases like this, I let the statistics take care
of themselves, if that makes any sense. So I don't
know what the shape of his season is going to be.
Like he had thirty one homers last year, he at
seventeen the year before. It looks like the early projections
(20:46):
are splitting the difference, which I think is fair. Same
thing with the average. But you know, he's a hitter
who I and he's moving to a nice environment to
in Arizona. So he's a hitter. I want to say
expect growth from but I just expect for him to
have another big year. And the one thing I look
at with him too, I don't think he's got two
(21:08):
forty three. I think he's more likely and you know,
the projections back this up to hit about two seventy.
So if you'rely, he had like a twenty five twenty
seven home run hitter with a two seventy average. I
just think he to me, of all these hitters, I
agree with ADP, like he doesn't jump up into that
next group with the Lonzo and Olsen, but he does
(21:30):
stand out a little bit for me, at least from
the first baseman below. And if you disagree with that,
I think that's fine, because there's a good case for
Christian Walker, for example, in particular, to be ranked ahead
of Nailor. Like I don't really have a big problem
with that.
Speaker 2 (21:45):
Yeah, I mean, I think it's close for me, but
I think I would have and they all, all all
four of these in particular are very close for me. Yeah.
I think with Walker it's just the I guess the
case against would be, you know, are we going to
(22:07):
see age related decline, but really he's been He's been
remarkably consistent. He talking about, you know, going to a
new situation. I mean, for a right handed power hitter,
you know, Houston is one of the best places you
can you can go. I think for Naylor and Walker,
you know, playing times obviously not an issue. I just
(22:29):
I feel more comfortable with the floor. Like, I guess
I see the possibility. I'm a little worried about. I'm
not sure Naylor is a thirty home run hitter. I mean,
I think maybe he's He's more sort of mid to
high twenties.
Speaker 1 (22:43):
And I feel I I agree with that.
Speaker 2 (22:45):
Yeah, I just feel a little safer with with Walker
based on track record.
Speaker 1 (22:50):
I guess yeah, I think the age is probably why
I do have Walker just a scoch behind Nailer. But
I think he's going to fall off completely. But I
do Nailers in his prime. Walker's a little bit post prime.
But you know, it's funny you said that these players
are lumped together because for me, in my personal ranks,
(23:10):
there is differentiation between Nailor and Walker and like I'd say,
the next like four hitters here, who are Tristan Cassas
Vinnie Pasquentino, Spencer Steer, and Cody Belincher, Like I have
questions to varying degrees, and there are different questions, and
we can talk about all four of them, you know
about all of them. And really I think we were
(23:35):
talking before about Olson, Alonzo, Nailor, and Walker. Might be
where I draw my line in the sand with first base,
not that I have to get one. And you know
you've drafted with me, like you know I draft. I'm
not gonna like, you know, we're at our main event
a couple months. I've been pulling aside, going John, we
have to you know, stretch forward. These these players. I'm
not going to panic, but I think in terms of
how I have them ranked, the rankings will just sort
(23:57):
of take care of that themselves, where it's like, okay,
like this is probably the time to to grab one
of these players players And maybe maybe with Cossas through Beliger,
maybe it's because that was burn last week with Cassas
and on some of my other team's toorkal Sin, Spencer,
toorcal Son. I feel like this is where the beginning
of the danger zone kind of comes into play a
little bit.
Speaker 2 (24:18):
Yeah, I might still have my you know, hard eyes
for cases, you know, and that, and there might be
some attachment based on what we didn't get last year.
I mean, we we got what about a month to
two months before he got injured.
Speaker 1 (24:38):
And we cut him to we cut him too, so
we get to enjoy the three home well we got
the paid of the three home run game again, you know,
with two of those coming off of Pablo Lopez, so
it was like a double right.
Speaker 2 (24:50):
Yeah, And I guess the thing for me that is
common to cassas in Pasmentino is I can see both
of them taking a step forward. And now remember Paspuentino was,
you know, coming back from injury to start the year
and then from the All Star break until till he
(25:15):
was injured and out for the season. You know. And again, yes,
small sample, I get it, don't yell at me, but
he did slash two ninety six, three twenty five, four
ninety seven, and as someone who had him on a
team or two, he was he was so just he
(25:35):
whether it was Homer's or RBI, you know, hitting behind.
We talked about this, I think when we were doing
our review talking about Salparees. But same holds with Paspentino.
When you get someone like Witt hitting ahead of you,
you will reap some rewards and in RBI and so.
And I think he's just a good hitter. Like I
just think he has a good hit tool. So you know,
(25:59):
I I have some I guess I seem a little
more upsiding costs in Paspentino. But yeah, I'd be interested
to hearing your take on.
Speaker 1 (26:09):
Well, my concerns I think are in Costa's case, it's
just the nature of the injury last year.
Speaker 2 (26:16):
Yeah, we did talk about that and he stay.
Speaker 1 (26:19):
Healthy, what does that look like? And it's probably less
of a oh no, he's gonna fall apart and more
of the optimism I had last year of that thirty
five to forty home run upside has been replaced more
with aying, yeah, I could see him hitting, you know,
twenty five home runs like that. That's kind of where
I'm out with Costas and with Pusquentino. I agree he's
(26:40):
a heck of a hitter. I do wonder though, if
he's the kind of hitter where the power doesn't necessarily
matter to him, if that makes any sense, like he
strikes or if he has twenty or thirty home runs.
He might look at it like, well, it doesn't matter
to me, Like I did my job, like I drove
it one hundred runs. That's that's where I'm at with Pasquentino.
(27:03):
And he doesn't run at all, so it's kind of well, okay,
like he could just be like a solid across the
board player. And that's sort of what I'm talking about here.
Like when I say I have concerns with cost and Passequentino,
I'm not saying don't draft them. I'm just saying they're
they're kind of in a separate class than or a
lower like tier for me than Nailor and Walker, which
(27:26):
is not what ADP is reflecting. Like ADP has like
pretty much from a Walker down to Bellinger. They're in
this tight, tight clump.
Speaker 2 (27:33):
So yeah, I mean I think that's all fair, and
I will I'll be looking more closely, you know. And
with Paspentino, you're right. I mean I did say that
it's at a certain point you can't worry about getting
a first base profile. But it might be too early
to be drafting a first baseman with you know, with
(27:53):
power that is not really plus you know.
Speaker 1 (27:56):
Yeah, And I will say that projections love like Pasquentinos,
so you know, if you're going off of that, like,
he's probably the guy to get here for sure.
Speaker 2 (28:05):
So Steer and Bellinger, I this is such a you know,
these two I think are united by the fact that
there's so much in their profiles that I am skeptical
of and wary of. But speed is what you're drafting,
and I'm not sure you're going to get it with Pellinger.
Speaker 1 (28:23):
On the end, I was going to say Steer in particular.
I think if you're drafting Steer, the steals or would
make the floor right. So if you draft Spencer Steer
and he does what he did last year is even
a little bit worse and he keeps his job, It's like, okay,
so he has fifteen home runs, but he steals me
(28:44):
twenty bases and he hits two twenty. Maybe I'm not
thrilled by that, but okay, whatever, Like I'll live with that.
I think that's that's a proposition with Spencer Steer. We
had a debate, like Tim Tim Jackson, like it wasn't debate.
We had discussion in the slack and Tim was like,
you should move Steer down. I don't really like him,
and I actually had him ahead of Pasquentino and I
flipped them in my initial right. And again it's all
(29:08):
really close, and it was because I was valuing those steels,
but I just couldn't. This is great with Belinger, you know.
I said to Tim, like I can't move him behind Bellinger,
Like it's just so hard because those steals do prop
him up, and yes, you have to be careful, like
there is a I think the other side of it too.
It's not like Spencer Steer is only steals that try
(29:29):
saying that three times fast, just just because there's enough here,
like across the board where he's a four, he could
be a four category player with a bad batting average,
like there's still value.
Speaker 2 (29:41):
He could lose his job.
Speaker 1 (29:42):
He could lose his job, although I guess who's he
going to lose his job too?
Speaker 2 (29:46):
Well, that's true. I was like in the depth charts,
it's not like there's a ton, but.
Speaker 1 (29:50):
That was that was last year. Last year, there was
no and you're right, he still could, like you know,
stuff could happen, like he could start out with the
six hundred oh ps and they could be like, yeah,
we're not we're not doing this. I'm just assuming he won't.
Speaker 2 (30:03):
I understand the argument from a numbers point of view,
This is just the kind of player that I don't
do that I usually avoid.
Speaker 1 (30:13):
I probably won't have him on a lot of my
draft teams, Like I could see him in an auction.
He's the kind of player I might get if the
room's luke were on him, and I'm like, well, I
can't let him go for this price. He's a sort
of player on draft teams like if I look like
his his ADP on what I'm looking at that I
pulled early days one fifteen, and I think in my
ranks I have him one twenty three. That that just
(30:35):
tells me I probably won't be getting much Spencer Steer, especially.
Speaker 2 (30:38):
Since projecting steals is, you know, such a dart throw.
It seems like I don't think anyone knows how to
project steals in the new Steels environment.
Speaker 1 (30:47):
Well, he's still fifteen and twenty twenty three, and if
he does it, well, I will say about Steer like that,
that twenty five. You're right, and this is foolish to say,
because you're right, But that twenty five feels like a
ceiling to me, Like it feels like he's probably like,
he's not gonna steal thirty five, and this might be
a good segue to Bellinger. So yeah, Bellinger. I think
(31:11):
people are kind of almost excited. But his price is
being driven by the move to Yankee Stadium, and I
get that. And I think even the projection that has him,
you know, jumping to like say from eighteen to about
like twenty three twenty four home runs, I get it.
But the bat and ball metrics with him are just
so much They're so bad. He's had as a real
(31:34):
life player. He's had one great year in the last
five Yes, I know, one of those of the pandemic year,
but I'm going to count it anyway from a rate
staff perspective. And yeah, I just I think, like you're
saying you don't like Steer, I don't want to draft
Bellinger and think, hey, the park's going to help him,
And then he does what we did last year, and
(31:55):
I'm like, okay, Like he didn't kill me, but he
just didn't really do enough for me to to like
feel good about him, particularly at this price. Like some
of this too is like if you go down to
the two star tier, like outside of the Steels, there's
some players in the two star tier, where I'm just like, well,
(32:15):
I'll just take the same power and production with maybe
a somewhat lower average without the steals at the cheaper price.
Like that's That's where I'm at.
Speaker 2 (32:23):
With Bellinger, Yeah, I pretty much agree. The idea, the
sort of moving to Yankee Stadium helium that a lot
of players get, I think is often misguided. And with Bellinger,
you know, I don't. Yeah, I expect that. You know,
(32:44):
the projections have him twenty three home runs and that's
up from eighteen last year. Sure, I will buy that,
but his contacts week you know, he's the Yankees are
were pretty low. They were in the bottom third as
(33:05):
far as stolen base attempts. With so much power in
that lineup, I don't. I don't know that you're ever
going to see like a high team steals here from Bellinger. Again,
I mean fast and a very good athlete.
Speaker 1 (33:17):
I will say with that, Wan Soda, it's it's possible
they might run more. But to your larger point, yeah,
I don't. I don't see it all that much. So yeah,
I think we're on the same place with Bellinger, so
Dies and Talia, I don't know. Michael Tockoley. We should
truly talking about, because you should talk about I think
(33:41):
and I are both well on him. I don't want
to put words in your mouth, but I really speaking
of profiles I don't like. I think some people are dreaming,
like on a thirty twenty season from him, and it
could happen. But he also strikes me as a player.
You know, they say you can't steal first. I think
(34:02):
it's this thing about corus field. It's like, you can't
really take advantage of course field if you're striking out
a ton, and that's what I see with Tali. It's like, okay, well, yeah,
the it really could all work for him in cores.
The other thing too about CORP is that people always
forget is that yes, it helps power, but it really
helps is bad average. It's often miscast as oh, it's
(34:24):
this big power boot. No, it helps, but it really
helps players who make contact. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (34:29):
People I think sometimes don't realize what a huge park
it is. And yes, you know, the thin air does
you know increase home runs? But what really increases our
extra base hits? You know? So I think you I
think you might have been citing some someone else, but
we were texting about Totally a few days ago, and
(34:54):
you said, you know, I think some people think, what
if Joey Gallo but in cours and the other side
to that, you know, formulation is but Joey Gallop. There's
the Joey Gallo part of that, which is, you know,
striking out, yeah, thirty something percent of the time. And
you know, granted, Totally is not not at the extreme
(35:16):
rates that Gallo is, but you are really risking in
average and and and that this draft cost. You're drafting
your starting first baseman more than likely, and there's just
so much I mean, look look at how people were
drafting Nolan Jones last year. You know, it's it's like
there's this presumption that a young player that has a
(35:37):
promising rookie season or half season in cores is immediately
going to hit the ground running, and that I just
don't think is true.
Speaker 1 (35:47):
So anyway, I mean, I will say, like to to
that point, you know, Jones was well, there were two things.
Jones was much more expensive, but the other side of that,
Jones did have half a season that was like I
don't want to say special, that's a strong word, but
it was a strong half a season, whereas totally, I
(36:10):
I kind of look at his numbers and I'm like, well, okay,
Like I get it, like twenty five home runs in
quarter fifty played appearances. That's great, But I look at
the rest of the line and it's like, well he
was he was a below average hitter, like in reality,
not you know, in Corra's reality, whereas Jones was a
(36:31):
well above average hitter. And that's something that can I
guess I was saying totally is it could really go
sideways really fast, like just not the profile I really
want to take a risk on like past you know,
and the two hundred. Sure, but he's not. He's not
going to go there. I think the worst thing, too,
is he's a player. I said this on another message
(36:52):
board somewhere. He's a player who's an early sleeper. I
think by March it's going to be the opposite. There's
going to be helium. I could see him creeping up,
but he won't get to those other first place we
talked about. I could see him creeping up close to
say one pick one fifty or one sixty, and at
that point it's like, yeah, I don't.
Speaker 2 (37:12):
Go with god, Yeah, yeah, just the last point on Tulio.
You know he has he has seven hundred and thirty
major league play appearances with an average of two oh six.
He's projected for an average of two twenty seven, which
is not great already. But that's I say, I think
that's an optimistic projection. I think you could you could
very well be looking at a sub two hundred average.
(37:35):
I yeah, I'm I'm passing. I mean, I'm probably passing,
you know, even like seventy five picks later, but I'm
definitely passing if he gets up to like, you know,
well into the yeah hundreds.
Speaker 1 (37:47):
I think that the team concepts is part of it too.
There's a time with the rock he where it's like
I'm gonna get a bunch of runs and runs bat
it in like that. That time has also passed.
Speaker 2 (37:56):
It's not a good team. Okay, two stars here.
Speaker 1 (38:01):
I heard you start. That wasn't a but okay. Also
eight players here. One is a designated hitter. So the
eight players here, Nathaniel Lowe is it lower low? I
always get pixed up, I think Josh I thought so right, Yeah,
it's Brandon okay, Ryan Moultcastle Christian and Karnacion Strand Andrew Vaughan,
(38:25):
Paul Goldschmidt. This is a very low rating. By the way,
I'm way out on Goldschman. We can talk about that.
Reese Hoskins, Tyler, I think it's Soderstorm, right, I was
wanting to pronounce it, okay, And Jock Peterson he's the
d H. So yeah, another kind of big clump here.
I think this is where you're probably gonna have in
(38:46):
a fifteen team league. One or two of these players
might be starters, but now you're you're kind of into
your corner territory at this point.
Speaker 2 (38:57):
Yeah, I'm trying. I'm trying to think of a player
here that I like. I mean, the ones that I
like are probably Mountcastle and Hoskins, mainly because I think
it's a very.
Speaker 1 (39:15):
Right.
Speaker 2 (39:15):
So Ryan Mountcastle, let's talk about him for a minute.
He looking up his stats. But he did lose some
playing time last year, did he not? Because I know
the Oriels were rotating in like O'Hearn. Yeah, so five
hundred and seven played appearances, one hundred twenty four games,
(39:36):
thirteen home runs. He had eighteen and one hundred and
fifteen the year before. If he and he's only projected
by Steamer for one hundred and twenty two and a
little over five hundred plate appearances. I don't know, I
feel like he should maybe be Andy's roster Resource has
(39:57):
him as the everyday first baseman. I love his bat
of ball metrics, like he's you know, he's not a
great contact guy, but he does see the ball very hard.
They'd move the left field wall in a little bit,
you know, not quite back to where it was prior
to the resizing. But I just feel like if you
(40:19):
told me he was going to get six hundred plate appearances,
he would sort of leap out of this tier for me.
Speaker 1 (40:24):
Yeah, so I I like him too. So the thing
about Mountcastle is before they move the fences and he
was pretty much selling out to pull and he's kind
of changed them doing them moving them back like messed
him up. He's changed his approach. He's changed his approach.
He's changed his approach, and he kind of became like
(40:46):
a spray like all fields hitters. So what I wonder
is he going to try to change his approach yet
again to sell out for more power. Is he just
going to trust the power like that he has. As
much as I like him, I should say for arving
this here. This is the if I like them, it's
I like them at this price. It's not that oh yeah,
(41:07):
like I'm really excited they're going to break into the
next group. My thing with the Orioles is it's such
a crowded situation. The farm is so good. There's always worrying.
With Mountcastle, I definitely have this worry that it could
go the other way and he could be you know,
in a part time role or out of a job,
more likely a part time role. So I do like him,
(41:31):
I'm just not like super excited, like if you get
and honestly, if you can get back to like twenty
twenty two twenty twenty three production, that's probably find this price.
Speaker 2 (41:43):
Yeah, I mean, I guess I'm looking at the depth chart,
and you know, most of the Orioles prospects or are infielders,
you know, middle infielders, third base, some outfielders. I guess
Kurstad could be the one.
Speaker 1 (42:00):
First first, that's the guy I'm looking at, especially since
he's a lefty and Mountcastle's alrighty, Like, that's that's what
I'm That's what I'm concerned about.
Speaker 2 (42:10):
The other the other player I'm looking at here. Is
is Hoskins boring, You're sacrificing some average but he does
have the job, and if he stays healthy, I think
he's you know, sort of your your your generic brand
first baseman at this at this price point.
Speaker 1 (42:30):
Yeah, I know this is kind of a cop out,
but like looking at this tier outside of of Goldschmidt
and outside of Cees and that's not even I dislike CS,
but I I kind of like all these players at
their price points. And that's some of what it is.
(42:51):
Like someone you get to this point of the draft,
you're talking about a quarter infielder. I'm I'm fine with
almost all of these players, I think. But my guy
that I like here is Nathaniel Lowe. And it's sort
of the it's the he's boring argument, Like, it's not
the this is my argument Andrew vaugh last year. I
get something sorry about Andrew Vaugh, but like Nathaniel Lowe
(43:14):
is this player where it's like, Okay, he's going to
hit like, you know, fifteen to seventeen home runs, he
should be a little more fortunate with the runs and
the runs bat and especially because the Nationals have improved
their lineup and it looks better. He's going to have
a positive average relative to the position in the league,
and all that's fine. Like he's I think people are
(43:35):
downgrading him because they look at twenty twenty two and
they're they're still kind of mad that that's not the
player that he is. Yeah, but at this at this price,
he's fine. Like he's just somebody who's going to go
out and produce and be boring and at the end
of the ye'arre going to look at him and go, yeah,
like he was, he was fine as my quarner infielder.
That's really what I'm looking for here, Like I'm not
(43:55):
looking for Soderstorm. Is if I want the upside, I'm
going to take Soderstrom. But if I'm looking for the production,
I think Low and Mountcastle or the names I'm looking
at in this bracket.
Speaker 2 (44:07):
You're looking at the profiles. I mean, Low is sort
of a similar profile to Pasquentino, but a cut below.
I mean, when you're looking at a high average floor
but maybe you know lowish power. Yeah, I mean, yeah,
I'm totally fine with Low here. All right, let's let's
talk about gold Schmidt.
Speaker 1 (44:29):
Yeah, this is painful because I love Goldie for years,
but the age. I know he bounced back in the
second half last year, but the arrows have been pointing
down on him for the most part for the last
two years. I don't think he's going to completely collapse,
but I don't see a big bounce back coming. And
(44:51):
I don't think that Yankee Stadium is really going to
help him, you know, I know we talked about is
with Bellinger. I don't think it's going to really help
him as much as people you know think it will.
And unlike Bellinger Goldie the last two years in particular
is it's not a heavy groundboll profile, but he's hitting
fewer fly fly balls than he used to. I'm just
(45:14):
not you know, particularly jazz about the other thing. Two
is you know he's a righty, so Yankee Stadium, Yes,
it's a power park rightier lefty, but it helps lefties more.
I I just want to I almost want to stay
away from him, but he's being drafted, like with Tolia
inside of the top two hundred and kind of my
(45:38):
my hot take here. I think I'd actually rather have
Tolia than Goldschmid if I had to choose between the two.
Not that I want either one of them. I think
I'd rather take the upside than the player who's kind
of starting to step into the twilight and think I
was gonna say something. Is an evolution of the way
(45:59):
I played. I used to kind of hanging on to
the player like Goldschmid for one year or too long.
I'd rather get off and be wrong and be like, Okay,
what was wrong? You know, he hit twenty five home
runs and stole ten bases, you know when I missed,
you know, rather go the other way where I took
the player and he fell off the map and it's
like whoops.
Speaker 2 (46:20):
At some point you have to just sort of coldly
look in the situation and ask, you know, do you
expect a player who will be thirty eight during you know,
turn thirty eight in September? Do you expect even with
the venue change to a favorable more favorable hitting environment
(46:41):
and I suppose a better lineup. I mean, do you
expect those things to compensate for what is pretty clearly,
you know, a mark decline in the last two years.
I Mean, one of the things that's I wonder is
affecting people's perception of Goldschman is that his twenty twenty
two was was great. I mean, I think he fell
(47:03):
off toward the end, but it was a you know,
it was a real it was just a strong. It
kind of ranked with a lot of his his career
years except for the steals, and then twenty twenty three
a definite step back. Twenty twenty four another big step back.
But I think a lot of people are thinking, well,
if he did this in twenty twenty two, he certainly
has to have some of that left in the tank.
(47:25):
But as we saw with like Jose Breu last year,
like you know, it can go really quickly.
Speaker 1 (47:30):
Yeah, I mean he might. It's I wouldn't rule it
out like he's I wouldn't rule.
Speaker 2 (47:35):
It out completely, but I'm not. It's not It's not
anything that I would pay for.
Speaker 1 (47:41):
That's what it is. I wouldn't rule it out, but
I just would rather it's not the kind of player
and age profile I want to be left holding the
bag on that. That's kind of how I feel about it.
Anyone else here Before we kind of moved to the.
Speaker 2 (47:57):
I would get too sad if we talked about Andrew on.
So let's go to the one star.
Speaker 1 (48:02):
Yeah, Although I think Gadre Vaughan is fine, but yes,
it's it's a sad conversation. So what we do with
the one star instead of going through the names in
the list is historically and if you want to go
the list, we can. But historically each of us kind
of pick a player that we like here. So I'll
I'll read off the names and I'll let you go first. Also,
(48:23):
you can go off the board if you want to
take somebody who's not listed here, you certainly can, although
I think given the nature of the position, you probably won't.
So the player the players here are it's another eight
player position or eight players here Michael Bush, Luke Raley, Doan,
Shanuel Cole, Manzarto at DH. That will probably change in season,
(48:47):
Josh Bell, Carlos Santana, Masataka Yeshida, the other d DH
and Davison Delos Santos. So who's your who's your pick
here or below this?
Speaker 2 (49:00):
Yeah, well, I feel like I would be it would
be irresponsible of me not to talk about my Washington
State cougar Kyle Manzarto here. I really like the way
he looked at when he came up at the end
of the season. You know, I I think he's he's
(49:22):
going to play, you know, pretty much every day, whether
at first or d H. And I think he's a
good hitter. I'll you'll get maybe not like thirty home
run power, but I think twenty home run power with
a lot of extra base hits.
Speaker 4 (49:42):
You know.
Speaker 2 (49:43):
He he was a college hitter who uh you know,
had very very strong hit tool in the in the minors,
and I just feel like he's not someone who's going
to take very long to come into a productive everyday role.
So so I will take Manzardo at DH in this
(50:03):
tier and hope that he gets first base eligibility at
some point during the season.
Speaker 1 (50:08):
Now I think he will. So so my pick here.
You know we've been telling you about speed and the
position is Luke Raley. I get it like there's if
you watch him play and if you look at the
stackcast numbers, particularly the average, he's due for a falloff,
but he's done it two years running. Now this is
a certain type of player, Like he's not going to
(50:30):
be your starter. And frankly, if you're in an NFBC
type league you need you ideally would have a caddy
with him in the weeks where Seattle is you know
is playing a couple of lefties, so you don't have
to like, you know, have Rally on your bench. But
realistically he's stolen. He's going to steal ten bases or so,
he's probably gonna come close to twenty home runs. The
(50:54):
profile is what it is, Like, I think it's just
something people look at him and go, yeah, I don't
really want any part of Luke Railey, and I don't
like the parks that you know, home parks that he
plays in, and that's completely fair. But at the ADP
he's going you know at, which is I think he's
past three hundred at this point, I said three twelve.
On what I'm looking at. He just feels like a
(51:15):
gimme to be like, he just feels like a nice
guy depending on the rest of your roster. So it's
just sort of like, you know, slot in there and
be like, okay, like this, this this will work for me.
Speaker 2 (51:25):
I picked up Luke Raley in my home league, probably
in like I don't know, July or August. And the
one thing that strikes me about Raley is you know,
you refer to it, but how much he's he's going
to play against lefties and likely not not very much.
So my I like Railey a lot for all the
(51:48):
reasons you mentioned. I especially like him in daily lineup leagues,
although I know that most of the people listening probably
playing weekly leagues. But yeah, you know, you can still
find a way for those players to work because you know,
often it's going to be even if it's you know,
two out of three games in a half week are
(52:12):
going to be against right handed pitching, it's often still
worth worth it to start that player because your other
options are probably going to be either worse or also
platoon options. So yeah, I think he's definitely rosterble in
fifteen team leagues and someone you probably cycle in, you know,
periodically throughout the season.
Speaker 1 (52:31):
Yeah, all right, I think we're going let's wrap up.
I'll take a breath, and we'll close out. Thank you
(53:03):
for listening to Episode three twenty one of Flags Fly Forever,
a Baseball Perspective Fantasy Baseball podcast. As I said before,
next week kicks off our coverage of the twenty twenty
five season, and we're starting with first base. As I
said before, there's gonna be about twenty articles a week.
I just I'm not going to run down every single one.
(53:24):
But they'll be my teared rankings, ADP analysis, they'll be
Dynasty coverage from Jesse Roche. They'll be the ten ninety scale,
they'll be the Deep League reports, they'll be the target
and Avoid pieces. It is that time of year. We
will have everything first base next week. If you're not
a subscribe. If you're a subscriber, thank you. If not,
(53:45):
I hope you join us. This is really the time
of year to get that in action. For Mike Jell
and John Hagland, thank you very much. We'll be back
next week with catchers.
Speaker 2 (53:54):
I just want to say quickly before we sign off,
I want to thank again the band Petite League for
giving us generously giving us permission to use their song
mets for our opening and break music. And uh and
please once again follow us on blue Sky. We have
left Twitter slash x behind for good. I will be
(54:17):
deleting that account. We will be on blue Sky at
flagsly forever, dot b Sky, dot social and we will
see you next week.
Speaker 1 (54:25):
Bye.
Speaker 2 (54:29):
All right, it's good we did it.
Speaker 1 (54:33):
Yeah. One of the books I didn't even really yet,
I like.
Speaker 4 (54:37):
Yeah, talking about Yeah, the
Speaker 2 (55:32):
M
Welcome to episode three twenty one. I almost said three two
to one of flags fly Forever, a baseball perspectives fantasy
baseball podcast. It's Mike Jianella. It's John Haglund. John, how
are you doing well?
Speaker 2 (00:39):
I don't know if our listeners could tune into our
pre recording conversation, which was, you know, heavy, I would
guess I would say, just talking about the world. But
I'm doing all right. It's a new year. We are
starting our positional previews, and I finally got off my
(01:02):
ass and started a blue Sky account. It's at flagsfly
forever dot besky dot Social. You can just search for
flags fly Forever in your blue Sky search bar. But
we're up to fifty followers, and you know, hopefully this
will be an account that grows as we make our
(01:22):
way through the preseason. So what are we previewing today, Michael?
Speaker 1 (01:27):
So interestingly, we usually start with catchers, but this year,
just based on the schedule, there's those two just things.
One is we're starting with first base and we're going
to do we always do a VP and lump in DHS,
which will do briefly. But the other thing that's a
little bit interesting is the articles at the website are
not up yet. Typically we roll this out at the
(01:49):
end of the week. But what we're doing is we're
doing the podcast first to kind of give you a
flavor for the articles at the website next week. So
you can listen to this, you can hear my in
John's opinion about you know, first Space and the tears,
and then you can go read everything next week that
I've written. You know that all the other writers at
Baseball Perspectives have written with the like twenty or so
(02:11):
articles will happen next week. I think it's a it's
a good way to do it. This. This is a
nice flavor. If you like listening and you know, really
a big reader, that's fine, but I would definitely recommend also,
you know, subscribing, you know, reading the articles. You know
this this is the time of year for fantasy where
you know, we're in our finest form. So enough with
(02:32):
the plug, let's uh, let's get started. So just to
kind of run through this for new listeners, we hope
we have a few uh. We we break our our
positions into tiers, and the way we do that, there's
a it's five star down to zero star if needed,
and we do this by rounds. Now we used to
(02:54):
buy like auction dollars, but I think that was a
little esoteric. H So the five star tier is round
one of two. It's the elite cream of the crop.
Four stars rounds three through six, still close to that,
three stars round seven through thirteen, two stars fourteen through
and John was in front of me, so I'm like
(03:15):
doing this off of memory fourteen through nineteen. Yeah, that's right.
And then the one star is like round twenty through
twenty three, and then the zero stars like round twenty four.
This is like fifteen team mixed. So it's deep. But
you can apply a lot of this to your leagues,
particularly with the top tiers. So any anything you want
(03:35):
to add, John, to clarify before we dive in.
Speaker 2 (03:39):
Nothing, really, I'll just say that we also have some
early ADP. I mean not that early. There have been
drafts going on for a while. I've got on you know,
I've pulled up sixty six Draft Champions results. I don't
know what you're working from, Mike, but.
Speaker 1 (03:59):
I always go off of the last fifties, so it'll
probably be similar. Okay, just to take out those like
really like super early drafts, I know some people will
go even like narrower than that, where they'll they'll just
do like the last eleven or ten. And I get that,
but I feel like the the sample at that point
is too small. But I think our numbers will be
(04:21):
pretty well.
Speaker 2 (04:22):
Tell me what date you're working from so we can
we can make a little sausage here.
Speaker 1 (04:27):
Okay, what day do you have? I have Let's see,
I have November fourth as the start date for me.
So yeah, that's still okay. Well, the thing the thing
about that, and this is where the sausage gets even wonkier.
So when I pulled this earlier today, it was fifty drafts.
Now it's fifty one. I really don't think it matters
all that much.
Speaker 2 (04:49):
So yeah, let's dive into the to the five star.
Speaker 1 (04:52):
Okay, uh, there's four names here and again remember there's
dhs and this is in order. You know, for name
pretty obvious, we have to talk about him much show Toddy,
Vladimir Greer Junior, Bryce Harper, and and Freddie Freeman. One
thing to know for all these, I put together my
ranks before I look at ADP. It just you know,
(05:15):
usually kind of typically happens that nothing at the top,
but there's be all that surprising, and so as it happens,
these four names are in the order that their ADP
currently is in, So nothing are shattering here.
Speaker 2 (05:28):
Yeah, I I also this year am ranking before I
look at ADP and before I look at your ranks, Mike,
and the one, the one this there's really not much
to talk about here. You know, Freeman has gone earlier
than Harper in years past, and you know it's a
(05:48):
bit of a fall off last year. Are you thinking,
you know, you're going to get basically the same Freddie Freeman,
but just age is going to maybe bring down on
the steals in particular, which sort of peaked in twenty
twenty three. You know, he's runs an RBI were fairly
(06:09):
low compared to his career standards. But you know that lineup,
you have to think that the RBI et least are
going to tick back up. And he's always been really
you know, strong in runs. So are we just splitting hairs? Hair?
And is it mainly the age that you're ticking Harper
ahead of Freeman?
Speaker 1 (06:27):
Yeah, it's the it's the age and the probable like
drop off and steals like even after the surgery, I
just imagine he's probably not going to be stealing you know,
what are you stealing twenty twenty three, like twenty.
Speaker 3 (06:40):
Like twenty twenty one or something, twenty twenty it was
twenty three bases Like, I think the safer bed is
probably like ten steals or so top so that that's
part of it.
Speaker 1 (06:51):
But to your point, like the other side of this
is that if Freeman's the number one first baseman like
next year. Yes, I'm concerned about the age, but it's
not like, you know, we'll get to him later. It's
not like Paul Goldschmidt, where he's a couple of years older.
You know, Freeman's still like I think thirty.
Speaker 2 (07:07):
Five, thirty five. Yeah.
Speaker 1 (07:09):
Yeah, So I'm a little worried, but I'm a little
worried where I'm like, okay, like he's a second round
pick for me, not a first round pick. I'm not
so worried that I'm like, oh gee, like I'm going
to fade Freddy Freeman. I don't want him, Like if
I if I get him in the middle of the
second round, I'd be very happy with that outcome.
Speaker 2 (07:27):
Okay, I don't. I don't really have much else to
add in this tier, it seems pretty cut drown. I
don't know if there's any one of the four you
want to mention.
Speaker 1 (07:36):
No, I mean just I just lad just to kind
of mention it briefly. There's you know, it looks like
the market recognizes this. He doesn't really run, I mean,
always run a little bit more. But there he's there's
value in being a four category stud even if he
doesn't hit like get to forty home runs, hits the
ball on the ground a lot, it just doesn't matter.
Like he's just such a great hitter. Another one just
(07:57):
perfectly comfortable. I think his ADP I'm showing is like fifteenth.
I have him like slightly higher at thirteenth. Again, like
a fine player to take at this point in the draft.
So yeah, that's not much here. This is the boring tier, folks.
I know some people will talk about this for you know,
twenty twenty five minutes. I don't think we really need
to do that.
Speaker 2 (08:17):
Now, let's get onto the great Matt Olsen debate.
Speaker 1 (08:20):
Oh boy, a debate already. So the four star tier
has has five players in it, and and this is
where the dhs are at least the ones. Really we're
talking about So we've got Matt Olsen, Brent Rucker, marcel
A Zuna, Pete Alonso, and Kyle Schwarber. So do you
(08:41):
want to start with Olsen or do you want to
since you already cute it up, I guess you should
start with Olsen.
Speaker 2 (08:48):
I was just looking at his you know, career stats,
and it does feel like twenty twenty three was maybe
the career year and anomaly. But you know, I just
I feel like it. Any I guess what I've Excuse me,
I guess what I feel like is the floor is
(09:09):
pretty high, especially I would say especially for power. Even
though he did have a sub thirty home run season
and there I still feel like with the battle Ball metrics,
he's still an elite power guy. I don't have a
(09:33):
It's not like I think Alonso is likely to like
I said, repeat that twenty twenty three, but I think
he's just going to, you know, fill up your power,
fill up your your accumulating stet. You're you're he's going
to compile and runs an RBI no no speed, which
(09:54):
is a bit of a problem. But you're not getting
speed really from him. Any First Baseman down in below Freeman,
so it's it's just a case of, you know, the
floor is fine. Looking at his ADP he is around
pick thirty six, so what early third round? I have
(10:14):
no problem like probably taking him at the two three
turn if I need a power bat and I'm not
going to get to pick for a while. So and
especially as we get down lower in the position, we'll
see that things dry up pretty quickly. So I just
think at this, you know, is because he is kind
of on an island as far as ADP for first basement,
so I would not hesitate to reach a few picks
(10:37):
just to lock up that power.
Speaker 1 (10:40):
Maybe I just don't like battles. And I've never really
I mean as a player, not as a person. I've
never really been in on him. And I think what
it is is that so one thing, you know, if
there's a one of these things is not like the other.
It is twenty twenty three, And I know that's not
what you're like arguing for. So if I look at
(11:00):
Olson and you're like, Okay, he's a thirty to thirty
five home run hitter, who's going to hit let's say,
I don't know, two fifty two fifty five? Is that?
Speaker 2 (11:08):
Yeah? Steamer has him at two fifty one.
Speaker 1 (11:11):
Okay, so he's a three category player. I guess my
thing is, I don't like taking a and I know
those three categories are great and important and positions week
I just don't like taking a three category player this early.
And yes, I know it's not that early. It's not
as early as he was going last year, which I
think was like seventeen or eighteen, but I'm still fading him.
(11:35):
I think I'd still rather just take a different player
at this point in the draft than kind of spend
my draft capitol on Olson. You don't necessarily need to
nail the pick here, but I would feel, you know,
unless he somehow does do he did in twenty twenty
three and hit two eighty three, I think I would
feel like, well, you know, if he hits thirty five
(11:55):
home runs and hits two fifty, I wouldn't be disappointed,
but I feel like I want a little more with
with a pick at this price.
Speaker 2 (12:03):
Yeah, that is fair, I think. Also we'll get to
I think the next the next tier, which might be
sort of where I would like to to be looking.
But for certain, depending on what you do in your
first in your first couple of rounds. I mean I
could see a team construction where where it would work,
(12:24):
and I really I feel like I really want to
get in early on first base because what we're looking
at after you know, pick what, certainly after pick two
hundred is just some very dicey options. So we'll we'll
just sort of agree to slightly discrimentals.
Speaker 1 (12:45):
And yeah, I think we're agreeing on that, and we'll
we'll get to that in the like tier when we
get to the three star tier. I do agree that
there's there is a fall off and there is a
like like price point where I'm client, well, I do
like some of the two star options, but I don't
like them as my primary first basement, like at that
(13:05):
point their corners, and you are right, I don't want
to you know, ride or die with somebody where it's like, oh,
I hope this is the year that he really you know,
bounces back or emerges, so for sure. So so from
that standpoint, and this is you know, something I want
to make sure I mentioned this last year first base
(13:25):
at a seven twenty four OPS. It was the worst
season for the position, most non strike season since nineteen
seventy six, and by adjusted OPS it was the worst
season since nineteen sixty three. So I bring that up
because sometimes I think you'll hear, oh, it's the worst ever,
Oh it's so bad, and there's a lot of hyperbole,
(13:47):
like this is not hyperbolic, Like it just was not
it isn't a good time for first base. So that's
probably the biggest argument for Olsen into a Lesuria Alonzo
is the fact that, like, well, I don't necessarily blame
someone for stretching if there's some fear about the position later,
if you don't like some of those three star names.
Speaker 2 (14:08):
Yeah, it's it's strange now that you mentioned the below
ops for the position. It's almost like you have to
get out of the mindset of my first basement should
have this profile, which I'm kind of contradicting myself, because
you know that that is what you're getting in Olson
and Alonso. Is that that old school first baseman profile.
(14:31):
But once you get down past let's say the next here,
it's sort of like you can't be worried about you
can't reach for what you think is going to be
possibly thirty home run power when you you know when
it could come with a lot of downsides, and you
just have to get a bat there and try to,
you know, find your power at other positions.
Speaker 1 (14:52):
Yeah, do we want to talk about these this trio
of dhs before we move or no?
Speaker 2 (14:58):
Yeah, I mean I look, I I am very very
upset that at Fangrafts. I'm going to call them out
specifically because I went to the roster resource page for
the Sacramento Athletics. Do do they give respect to the
city of Sacramento. They do not. They're just listed as athletics,
(15:20):
no city, no home, just just wandering in the night,
you know, Like, what the hell I noticed Sacramento.
Speaker 1 (15:29):
Maybe maybe they didn't want to call them sack. That
could be it.
Speaker 2 (15:34):
But Brent Rooker, let's maybe we talk a little about
Brent Rooker.
Speaker 1 (15:37):
Yeah, I like him a lot. Robert orr had a
good piece. It's like a redundancy.
Speaker 2 (15:43):
But he was podcast.
Speaker 1 (15:46):
Yeah, he was talking though about like, you know how Rooker.
You know, even though the strikeout profile remained high, the
way he changed his approach, Like Rooker hits the ball
so hard that he's just he's an elite. I don't
think that's something that's going to go away. I see people.
I don't want to say fading worker, but I see
some cynicism about him. I'm really high on Rooker. I
(16:11):
think I'm higher on him than almost anyone else. And
some of it is the park shift, and it's less
as Sacramento as a hitter haven and more than Oakland
was a pitcher's park, and so any move or virtually
any move out of there is going to be positive
for a hitter. I'm really I'm really high on Rooker.
I'm going to have to kind of be careful not
to like overdraft him this year. And the other two
(16:34):
are fine, Like I'm not knocking I was, you know,
or Schwarber, but of the of the three, I think
Rookers than what i'd want.
Speaker 2 (16:41):
Yeah, yeah, I'm still I'm still partially Schwarber, but I
might be a little optimistic about the average gains that
he posted last year. Just back to Rooker, it's interesting
looking at ADP and this will be sort of a
preview the Outfield episode, but he is right next to
(17:03):
his teammate Lawrence Butler, So that's kind of an interesting comparison.
You know, do you do you go for? I mean,
obviously Rookers ut only, but you know, different profile, different age,
you know, different point in their career arc and yet
I think both really really interesting players who have the
(17:25):
potential to really take off in in Sacramento.
Speaker 1 (17:30):
Yeah, you know, I'm looking at Rookers projection and the
thing is, it's like I could see the clawback in
the power. But I just I don't think it's get
two forty three. I think the average will be more
in like the two sixtiest range. That's just my my
feel on him. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (17:45):
Interesting. I guess I'm still a little nervous about the
strikeout rate, and to me, that always, you know, that
plus the age, you know, always makes me worry a
little bit that there could be a quick drop. But yeah,
you know, I trust Robert Orr and you know, he
just got a new contract. And normally I would say, well,
the team must have, you know, must have some some
(18:06):
data that you know drove their decision. But it is
the a sou you know, Lord knows what is driving
their decisions.
Speaker 1 (18:14):
But yeah, I don't, I don't know. Yeah, I don't
know if I have anything else about these guys. Yeah,
Schwarbridge just I guess the average variability a little bit
with him, you know, very very streaky player, you know,
if you have him. But that's true for anybody with
like a low like potential batting average. Should we move
(18:35):
to the three stars here?
Speaker 2 (18:37):
Yeah, I think this is the most interesting too.
Speaker 1 (18:39):
There's there's more names, and yeah, I think to the
point we've talked about, uh that this is where there's
a drop off. So let's let's uh, let's start here.
There's eight names all first basement two. By the way,
something I should have pointed out before we started. So
the way we do things as well is that we
do positional priorities. So you won't hear about Louise or
(19:00):
Eyes like tonight, he'll be with the second baseman. So
anyone who's like a first base or first base outfielder
will be included this week. Otherwise, if they have multi
position eligibility, we'll talk about them another time. So there's
eight names here. There's Josh Naylor, Christian Walker, Tristan Cassas,
Bennie Pasquentino, Spencer Steer, Cody Bellinger. And I think this
(19:23):
is where the drop is that you were talking about
Andy Diaz and Michael Tuglia. So anyone in particular you
want to start with.
Speaker 2 (19:32):
Here, Yeah, I mean I kind of want to talk
about most of these, but we don't have to spend
much time. But I found myself when I was doing
my ranks, I have I have Naylor a little lower,
like I have him below Walker Cassus and Pasquentino. You,
(19:54):
I mean, Adp is much higher on Naylor. He's at
the top of this this sort of chunk, but they're
all pretty close. They're all within about twenty picks down
to Bellinger at least. And you also, I think had
you have Naylor a top this year? So what's your
(20:14):
read on you know why Naylor stands out above like
Walker Cassus in Pascentino in particular.
Speaker 1 (20:23):
I so my thing about Naylor, it's one of those things.
I think he's a terrific hitter, and I kind of
in cases like this, I let the statistics take care
of themselves, if that makes any sense. So I don't
know what the shape of his season is going to be.
Like he had thirty one homers last year, he at
seventeen the year before. It looks like the early projections
(20:46):
are splitting the difference, which I think is fair. Same
thing with the average. But you know, he's a hitter
who I and he's moving to a nice environment to
in Arizona. So he's a hitter. I want to say
expect growth from but I just expect for him to
have another big year. And the one thing I look
at with him too, I don't think he's got two
(21:08):
forty three. I think he's more likely and you know,
the projections back this up to hit about two seventy.
So if you'rely, he had like a twenty five twenty
seven home run hitter with a two seventy average. I
just think he to me, of all these hitters, I
agree with ADP, like he doesn't jump up into that
next group with the Lonzo and Olsen, but he does
(21:30):
stand out a little bit for me, at least from
the first baseman below. And if you disagree with that,
I think that's fine, because there's a good case for
Christian Walker, for example, in particular, to be ranked ahead
of Nailor. Like I don't really have a big problem
with that.
Speaker 2 (21:45):
Yeah, I mean, I think it's close for me, but
I think I would have and they all, all all
four of these in particular are very close for me. Yeah.
I think with Walker it's just the I guess the
case against would be, you know, are we going to
(22:07):
see age related decline, but really he's been He's been
remarkably consistent. He talking about, you know, going to a
new situation. I mean, for a right handed power hitter,
you know, Houston is one of the best places you
can you can go. I think for Naylor and Walker,
you know, playing times obviously not an issue. I just
(22:29):
I feel more comfortable with the floor. Like, I guess
I see the possibility. I'm a little worried about. I'm
not sure Naylor is a thirty home run hitter. I mean,
I think maybe he's He's more sort of mid to
high twenties.
Speaker 1 (22:43):
And I feel I I agree with that.
Speaker 2 (22:45):
Yeah, I just feel a little safer with with Walker
based on track record.
Speaker 1 (22:50):
I guess yeah, I think the age is probably why
I do have Walker just a scoch behind Nailer. But
I think he's going to fall off completely. But I
do Nailers in his prime. Walker's a little bit post prime.
But you know, it's funny you said that these players
are lumped together because for me, in my personal ranks,
(23:10):
there is differentiation between Nailor and Walker and like I'd say,
the next like four hitters here, who are Tristan Cassas
Vinnie Pasquentino, Spencer Steer, and Cody Belincher, Like I have
questions to varying degrees, and there are different questions, and
we can talk about all four of them, you know
about all of them. And really I think we were
(23:35):
talking before about Olson, Alonzo, Nailor, and Walker. Might be
where I draw my line in the sand with first base,
not that I have to get one. And you know
you've drafted with me, like you know I draft. I'm
not gonna like, you know, we're at our main event
a couple months. I've been pulling aside, going John, we
have to you know, stretch forward. These these players. I'm
not going to panic, but I think in terms of
how I have them ranked, the rankings will just sort
(23:57):
of take care of that themselves, where it's like, okay,
like this is probably the time to to grab one
of these players players And maybe maybe with Cossas through Beliger,
maybe it's because that was burn last week with Cassas
and on some of my other team's toorkal Sin, Spencer,
toorcal Son. I feel like this is where the beginning
of the danger zone kind of comes into play a
little bit.
Speaker 2 (24:18):
Yeah, I might still have my you know, hard eyes
for cases, you know, and that, and there might be
some attachment based on what we didn't get last year.
I mean, we we got what about a month to
two months before he got injured.
Speaker 1 (24:38):
And we cut him to we cut him too, so
we get to enjoy the three home well we got
the paid of the three home run game again, you know,
with two of those coming off of Pablo Lopez, so
it was like a double right.
Speaker 2 (24:50):
Yeah, And I guess the thing for me that is
common to cassas in Pasmentino is I can see both
of them taking a step forward. And now remember Paspuentino was,
you know, coming back from injury to start the year
and then from the All Star break until till he
(25:15):
was injured and out for the season. You know. And again, yes,
small sample, I get it, don't yell at me, but
he did slash two ninety six, three twenty five, four
ninety seven, and as someone who had him on a
team or two, he was he was so just he
(25:35):
whether it was Homer's or RBI, you know, hitting behind.
We talked about this, I think when we were doing
our review talking about Salparees. But same holds with Paspentino.
When you get someone like Witt hitting ahead of you,
you will reap some rewards and in RBI and so.
And I think he's just a good hitter. Like I
just think he has a good hit tool. So you know,
(25:59):
I I have some I guess I seem a little
more upsiding costs in Paspentino. But yeah, I'd be interested
to hearing your take on.
Speaker 1 (26:09):
Well, my concerns I think are in Costa's case, it's
just the nature of the injury last year.
Speaker 2 (26:16):
Yeah, we did talk about that and he stay.
Speaker 1 (26:19):
Healthy, what does that look like? And it's probably less
of a oh no, he's gonna fall apart and more
of the optimism I had last year of that thirty
five to forty home run upside has been replaced more
with aying, yeah, I could see him hitting, you know,
twenty five home runs like that. That's kind of where
I'm out with Costas and with Pusquentino. I agree he's
(26:40):
a heck of a hitter. I do wonder though, if
he's the kind of hitter where the power doesn't necessarily
matter to him, if that makes any sense, like he
strikes or if he has twenty or thirty home runs.
He might look at it like, well, it doesn't matter
to me, Like I did my job, like I drove
it one hundred runs. That's that's where I'm at with Pasquentino.
(27:03):
And he doesn't run at all, so it's kind of well, okay,
like he could just be like a solid across the
board player. And that's sort of what I'm talking about here.
Like when I say I have concerns with cost and Passequentino,
I'm not saying don't draft them. I'm just saying they're
they're kind of in a separate class than or a
lower like tier for me than Nailor and Walker, which
(27:26):
is not what ADP is reflecting. Like ADP has like
pretty much from a Walker down to Bellinger. They're in
this tight, tight clump.
Speaker 2 (27:33):
So yeah, I mean I think that's all fair, and
I will I'll be looking more closely, you know. And
with Paspentino, you're right. I mean I did say that
it's at a certain point you can't worry about getting
a first base profile. But it might be too early
to be drafting a first baseman with you know, with
(27:53):
power that is not really plus you know.
Speaker 1 (27:56):
Yeah, And I will say that projections love like Pasquentinos,
so you know, if you're going off of that, like,
he's probably the guy to get here for sure.
Speaker 2 (28:05):
So Steer and Bellinger, I this is such a you know,
these two I think are united by the fact that
there's so much in their profiles that I am skeptical
of and wary of. But speed is what you're drafting,
and I'm not sure you're going to get it with Pellinger.
Speaker 1 (28:23):
On the end, I was going to say Steer in particular.
I think if you're drafting Steer, the steals or would
make the floor right. So if you draft Spencer Steer
and he does what he did last year is even
a little bit worse and he keeps his job, It's like, okay,
so he has fifteen home runs, but he steals me
(28:44):
twenty bases and he hits two twenty. Maybe I'm not
thrilled by that, but okay, whatever, Like I'll live with that.
I think that's that's a proposition with Spencer Steer. We
had a debate, like Tim Tim Jackson, like it wasn't debate.
We had discussion in the slack and Tim was like,
you should move Steer down. I don't really like him,
and I actually had him ahead of Pasquentino and I
flipped them in my initial right. And again it's all
(29:08):
really close, and it was because I was valuing those steels,
but I just couldn't. This is great with Belinger, you know.
I said to Tim, like I can't move him behind Bellinger,
Like it's just so hard because those steals do prop
him up, and yes, you have to be careful, like
there is a I think the other side of it too.
It's not like Spencer Steer is only steals that try
(29:29):
saying that three times fast, just just because there's enough here,
like across the board where he's a four, he could
be a four category player with a bad batting average,
like there's still value.
Speaker 2 (29:41):
He could lose his job.
Speaker 1 (29:42):
He could lose his job, although I guess who's he
going to lose his job too?
Speaker 2 (29:46):
Well, that's true. I was like in the depth charts,
it's not like there's a ton, but.
Speaker 1 (29:50):
That was that was last year. Last year, there was
no and you're right, he still could, like you know,
stuff could happen, like he could start out with the
six hundred oh ps and they could be like, yeah,
we're not we're not doing this. I'm just assuming he won't.
Speaker 2 (30:03):
I understand the argument from a numbers point of view,
This is just the kind of player that I don't
do that I usually avoid.
Speaker 1 (30:13):
I probably won't have him on a lot of my
draft teams, Like I could see him in an auction.
He's the kind of player I might get if the
room's luke were on him, and I'm like, well, I
can't let him go for this price. He's a sort
of player on draft teams like if I look like
his his ADP on what I'm looking at that I
pulled early days one fifteen, and I think in my
ranks I have him one twenty three. That that just
(30:35):
tells me I probably won't be getting much Spencer Steer, especially.
Speaker 2 (30:38):
Since projecting steals is, you know, such a dart throw.
It seems like I don't think anyone knows how to
project steals in the new Steels environment.
Speaker 1 (30:47):
Well, he's still fifteen and twenty twenty three, and if
he does it, well, I will say about Steer like that,
that twenty five. You're right, and this is foolish to say,
because you're right, But that twenty five feels like a
ceiling to me, Like it feels like he's probably like,
he's not gonna steal thirty five, and this might be
a good segue to Bellinger. So yeah, Bellinger. I think
(31:11):
people are kind of almost excited. But his price is
being driven by the move to Yankee Stadium, and I
get that. And I think even the projection that has him,
you know, jumping to like say from eighteen to about
like twenty three twenty four home runs, I get it.
But the bat and ball metrics with him are just
so much They're so bad. He's had as a real
(31:34):
life player. He's had one great year in the last
five Yes, I know, one of those of the pandemic year,
but I'm going to count it anyway from a rate
staff perspective. And yeah, I just I think, like you're
saying you don't like Steer, I don't want to draft
Bellinger and think, hey, the park's going to help him,
And then he does what we did last year, and
(31:55):
I'm like, okay, Like he didn't kill me, but he
just didn't really do enough for me to to like
feel good about him, particularly at this price. Like some
of this too is like if you go down to
the two star tier, like outside of the Steels, there's
some players in the two star tier, where I'm just like, well,
(32:15):
I'll just take the same power and production with maybe
a somewhat lower average without the steals at the cheaper price.
Like that's That's where I'm at.
Speaker 2 (32:23):
With Bellinger, Yeah, I pretty much agree. The idea, the
sort of moving to Yankee Stadium helium that a lot
of players get, I think is often misguided. And with Bellinger,
you know, I don't. Yeah, I expect that. You know,
(32:44):
the projections have him twenty three home runs and that's
up from eighteen last year. Sure, I will buy that,
but his contacts week you know, he's the Yankees are
were pretty low. They were in the bottom third as
(33:05):
far as stolen base attempts. With so much power in
that lineup, I don't. I don't know that you're ever
going to see like a high team steals here from Bellinger. Again,
I mean fast and a very good athlete.
Speaker 1 (33:17):
I will say with that, Wan Soda, it's it's possible
they might run more. But to your larger point, yeah,
I don't. I don't see it all that much. So yeah,
I think we're on the same place with Bellinger, so
Dies and Talia, I don't know. Michael Tockoley. We should
truly talking about, because you should talk about I think
(33:41):
and I are both well on him. I don't want
to put words in your mouth, but I really speaking
of profiles I don't like. I think some people are dreaming,
like on a thirty twenty season from him, and it
could happen. But he also strikes me as a player.
You know, they say you can't steal first. I think
(34:02):
it's this thing about corus field. It's like, you can't
really take advantage of course field if you're striking out
a ton, and that's what I see with Tali. It's like, okay, well, yeah,
the it really could all work for him in cores.
The other thing too about CORP is that people always
forget is that yes, it helps power, but it really
helps is bad average. It's often miscast as oh, it's
(34:24):
this big power boot. No, it helps, but it really
helps players who make contact. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (34:29):
People I think sometimes don't realize what a huge park
it is. And yes, you know, the thin air does
you know increase home runs? But what really increases our
extra base hits? You know? So I think you I
think you might have been citing some someone else, but
we were texting about Totally a few days ago, and
(34:54):
you said, you know, I think some people think, what
if Joey Gallo but in cours and the other side
to that, you know, formulation is but Joey Gallop. There's
the Joey Gallo part of that, which is, you know,
striking out, yeah, thirty something percent of the time. And
you know, granted, Totally is not not at the extreme
(35:16):
rates that Gallo is, but you are really risking in
average and and and that this draft cost. You're drafting
your starting first baseman more than likely, and there's just
so much I mean, look look at how people were
drafting Nolan Jones last year. You know, it's it's like
there's this presumption that a young player that has a
(35:37):
promising rookie season or half season in cores is immediately
going to hit the ground running, and that I just
don't think is true.
Speaker 1 (35:47):
So anyway, I mean, I will say, like to to
that point, you know, Jones was well, there were two things.
Jones was much more expensive, but the other side of that,
Jones did have half a season that was like I
don't want to say special, that's a strong word, but
it was a strong half a season, whereas totally, I
(36:10):
I kind of look at his numbers and I'm like, well, okay,
Like I get it, like twenty five home runs in
quarter fifty played appearances. That's great, But I look at
the rest of the line and it's like, well he
was he was a below average hitter, like in reality,
not you know, in Corra's reality, whereas Jones was a
(36:31):
well above average hitter. And that's something that can I
guess I was saying totally is it could really go
sideways really fast, like just not the profile I really
want to take a risk on like past you know,
and the two hundred. Sure, but he's not. He's not
going to go there. I think the worst thing, too,
is he's a player. I said this on another message
(36:52):
board somewhere. He's a player who's an early sleeper. I
think by March it's going to be the opposite. There's
going to be helium. I could see him creeping up,
but he won't get to those other first place we
talked about. I could see him creeping up close to
say one pick one fifty or one sixty, and at
that point it's like, yeah, I don't.
Speaker 2 (37:12):
Go with god, Yeah, yeah, just the last point on Tulio.
You know he has he has seven hundred and thirty
major league play appearances with an average of two oh six.
He's projected for an average of two twenty seven, which
is not great already. But that's I say, I think
that's an optimistic projection. I think you could you could
very well be looking at a sub two hundred average.
(37:35):
I yeah, I'm I'm passing. I mean, I'm probably passing,
you know, even like seventy five picks later, but I'm
definitely passing if he gets up to like, you know,
well into the yeah hundreds.
Speaker 1 (37:47):
I think that the team concepts is part of it too.
There's a time with the rock he where it's like
I'm gonna get a bunch of runs and runs bat
it in like that. That time has also passed.
Speaker 2 (37:56):
It's not a good team. Okay, two stars here.
Speaker 1 (38:01):
I heard you start. That wasn't a but okay. Also
eight players here. One is a designated hitter. So the
eight players here, Nathaniel Lowe is it lower low? I
always get pixed up, I think Josh I thought so right, Yeah,
it's Brandon okay, Ryan Moultcastle Christian and Karnacion Strand Andrew Vaughan,
(38:25):
Paul Goldschmidt. This is a very low rating. By the way,
I'm way out on Goldschman. We can talk about that.
Reese Hoskins, Tyler, I think it's Soderstorm, right, I was
wanting to pronounce it, okay, And Jock Peterson he's the
d H. So yeah, another kind of big clump here.
I think this is where you're probably gonna have in
(38:46):
a fifteen team league. One or two of these players
might be starters, but now you're you're kind of into
your corner territory at this point.
Speaker 2 (38:57):
Yeah, I'm trying. I'm trying to think of a player
here that I like. I mean, the ones that I
like are probably Mountcastle and Hoskins, mainly because I think
it's a very.
Speaker 1 (39:15):
Right.
Speaker 2 (39:15):
So Ryan Mountcastle, let's talk about him for a minute.
He looking up his stats. But he did lose some
playing time last year, did he not? Because I know
the Oriels were rotating in like O'Hearn. Yeah, so five
hundred and seven played appearances, one hundred twenty four games,
(39:36):
thirteen home runs. He had eighteen and one hundred and
fifteen the year before. If he and he's only projected
by Steamer for one hundred and twenty two and a
little over five hundred plate appearances. I don't know, I
feel like he should maybe be Andy's roster Resource has
(39:57):
him as the everyday first baseman. I love his bat
of ball metrics, like he's you know, he's not a
great contact guy, but he does see the ball very hard.
They'd move the left field wall in a little bit,
you know, not quite back to where it was prior
to the resizing. But I just feel like if you
(40:19):
told me he was going to get six hundred plate appearances,
he would sort of leap out of this tier for me.
Speaker 1 (40:24):
Yeah, so I I like him too. So the thing
about Mountcastle is before they move the fences and he
was pretty much selling out to pull and he's kind
of changed them doing them moving them back like messed
him up. He's changed his approach. He's changed his approach.
He's changed his approach, and he kind of became like
(40:46):
a spray like all fields hitters. So what I wonder
is he going to try to change his approach yet
again to sell out for more power. Is he just
going to trust the power like that he has. As
much as I like him, I should say for arving
this here. This is the if I like them, it's
I like them at this price. It's not that oh yeah,
(41:07):
like I'm really excited they're going to break into the
next group. My thing with the Orioles is it's such
a crowded situation. The farm is so good. There's always worrying.
With Mountcastle, I definitely have this worry that it could
go the other way and he could be you know,
in a part time role or out of a job,
more likely a part time role. So I do like him,
(41:31):
I'm just not like super excited, like if you get
and honestly, if you can get back to like twenty
twenty two twenty twenty three production, that's probably find this price.
Speaker 2 (41:43):
Yeah, I mean, I guess I'm looking at the depth chart,
and you know, most of the Orioles prospects or are infielders,
you know, middle infielders, third base, some outfielders. I guess
Kurstad could be the one.
Speaker 1 (42:00):
First first, that's the guy I'm looking at, especially since
he's a lefty and Mountcastle's alrighty, Like, that's that's what
I'm That's what I'm concerned about.
Speaker 2 (42:10):
The other the other player I'm looking at here. Is
is Hoskins boring, You're sacrificing some average but he does
have the job, and if he stays healthy, I think
he's you know, sort of your your your generic brand
first baseman at this at this price point.
Speaker 1 (42:30):
Yeah, I know this is kind of a cop out,
but like looking at this tier outside of of Goldschmidt
and outside of Cees and that's not even I dislike CS,
but I I kind of like all these players at
their price points. And that's some of what it is.
(42:51):
Like someone you get to this point of the draft,
you're talking about a quarter infielder. I'm I'm fine with
almost all of these players, I think. But my guy
that I like here is Nathaniel Lowe. And it's sort
of the it's the he's boring argument, Like, it's not
the this is my argument Andrew vaugh last year. I
get something sorry about Andrew Vaugh, but like Nathaniel Lowe
(43:14):
is this player where it's like, Okay, he's going to
hit like, you know, fifteen to seventeen home runs, he
should be a little more fortunate with the runs and
the runs bat and especially because the Nationals have improved
their lineup and it looks better. He's going to have
a positive average relative to the position in the league,
and all that's fine. Like he's I think people are
(43:35):
downgrading him because they look at twenty twenty two and
they're they're still kind of mad that that's not the
player that he is. Yeah, but at this at this price,
he's fine. Like he's just somebody who's going to go
out and produce and be boring and at the end
of the ye'arre going to look at him and go, yeah,
like he was, he was fine as my quarner infielder.
That's really what I'm looking for here, Like I'm not
(43:55):
looking for Soderstorm. Is if I want the upside, I'm
going to take Soderstrom. But if I'm looking for the production,
I think Low and Mountcastle or the names I'm looking
at in this bracket.
Speaker 2 (44:07):
You're looking at the profiles. I mean, Low is sort
of a similar profile to Pasquentino, but a cut below.
I mean, when you're looking at a high average floor
but maybe you know lowish power. Yeah, I mean, yeah,
I'm totally fine with Low here. All right, let's let's
talk about gold Schmidt.
Speaker 1 (44:29):
Yeah, this is painful because I love Goldie for years,
but the age. I know he bounced back in the
second half last year, but the arrows have been pointing
down on him for the most part for the last
two years. I don't think he's going to completely collapse,
but I don't see a big bounce back coming. And
(44:51):
I don't think that Yankee Stadium is really going to
help him, you know, I know we talked about is
with Bellinger. I don't think it's going to really help
him as much as people you know think it will.
And unlike Bellinger Goldie the last two years in particular
is it's not a heavy groundboll profile, but he's hitting
fewer fly fly balls than he used to. I'm just
(45:14):
not you know, particularly jazz about the other thing. Two
is you know he's a righty, so Yankee Stadium, Yes,
it's a power park rightier lefty, but it helps lefties more.
I I just want to I almost want to stay
away from him, but he's being drafted, like with Tolia
inside of the top two hundred and kind of my
(45:38):
my hot take here. I think I'd actually rather have
Tolia than Goldschmid if I had to choose between the two.
Not that I want either one of them. I think
I'd rather take the upside than the player who's kind
of starting to step into the twilight and think I
was gonna say something. Is an evolution of the way
(45:59):
I played. I used to kind of hanging on to
the player like Goldschmid for one year or too long.
I'd rather get off and be wrong and be like, Okay,
what was wrong? You know, he hit twenty five home
runs and stole ten bases, you know when I missed,
you know, rather go the other way where I took
the player and he fell off the map and it's
like whoops.
Speaker 2 (46:20):
At some point you have to just sort of coldly
look in the situation and ask, you know, do you
expect a player who will be thirty eight during you know,
turn thirty eight in September? Do you expect even with
the venue change to a favorable more favorable hitting environment
(46:41):
and I suppose a better lineup. I mean, do you
expect those things to compensate for what is pretty clearly,
you know, a mark decline in the last two years.
I Mean, one of the things that's I wonder is
affecting people's perception of Goldschman is that his twenty twenty
two was was great. I mean, I think he fell
(47:03):
off toward the end, but it was a you know,
it was a real it was just a strong. It
kind of ranked with a lot of his his career
years except for the steals, and then twenty twenty three
a definite step back. Twenty twenty four another big step back.
But I think a lot of people are thinking, well,
if he did this in twenty twenty two, he certainly
has to have some of that left in the tank.
(47:25):
But as we saw with like Jose Breu last year,
like you know, it can go really quickly.
Speaker 1 (47:30):
Yeah, I mean he might. It's I wouldn't rule it
out like he's I wouldn't rule.
Speaker 2 (47:35):
It out completely, but I'm not. It's not It's not
anything that I would pay for.
Speaker 1 (47:41):
That's what it is. I wouldn't rule it out, but
I just would rather it's not the kind of player
and age profile I want to be left holding the
bag on that. That's kind of how I feel about it.
Anyone else here Before we kind of moved to the.
Speaker 2 (47:57):
I would get too sad if we talked about Andrew on.
So let's go to the one star.
Speaker 1 (48:02):
Yeah, Although I think Gadre Vaughan is fine, but yes,
it's it's a sad conversation. So what we do with
the one star instead of going through the names in
the list is historically and if you want to go
the list, we can. But historically each of us kind
of pick a player that we like here. So I'll
I'll read off the names and I'll let you go first. Also,
(48:23):
you can go off the board if you want to
take somebody who's not listed here, you certainly can, although
I think given the nature of the position, you probably won't.
So the player the players here are it's another eight
player position or eight players here Michael Bush, Luke Raley, Doan,
Shanuel Cole, Manzarto at DH. That will probably change in season,
(48:47):
Josh Bell, Carlos Santana, Masataka Yeshida, the other d DH
and Davison Delos Santos. So who's your who's your pick
here or below this?
Speaker 2 (49:00):
Yeah, well, I feel like I would be it would
be irresponsible of me not to talk about my Washington
State cougar Kyle Manzarto here. I really like the way
he looked at when he came up at the end
of the season. You know, I I think he's he's
(49:22):
going to play, you know, pretty much every day, whether
at first or d H. And I think he's a
good hitter. I'll you'll get maybe not like thirty home
run power, but I think twenty home run power with
a lot of extra base hits.
Speaker 4 (49:42):
You know.
Speaker 2 (49:43):
He he was a college hitter who uh you know,
had very very strong hit tool in the in the minors,
and I just feel like he's not someone who's going
to take very long to come into a productive everyday role.
So so I will take Manzardo at DH in this
(50:03):
tier and hope that he gets first base eligibility at
some point during the season.
Speaker 1 (50:08):
Now I think he will. So so my pick here.
You know we've been telling you about speed and the
position is Luke Raley. I get it like there's if
you watch him play and if you look at the
stackcast numbers, particularly the average, he's due for a falloff,
but he's done it two years running. Now this is
a certain type of player, Like he's not going to
(50:30):
be your starter. And frankly, if you're in an NFBC
type league you need you ideally would have a caddy
with him in the weeks where Seattle is you know
is playing a couple of lefties, so you don't have
to like, you know, have Rally on your bench. But
realistically he's stolen. He's going to steal ten bases or so,
he's probably gonna come close to twenty home runs. The
(50:54):
profile is what it is, Like, I think it's just
something people look at him and go, yeah, I don't
really want any part of Luke Railey, and I don't
like the parks that you know, home parks that he
plays in, and that's completely fair. But at the ADP
he's going you know at, which is I think he's
past three hundred at this point, I said three twelve.
On what I'm looking at. He just feels like a
(51:15):
gimme to be like, he just feels like a nice
guy depending on the rest of your roster. So it's
just sort of like, you know, slot in there and
be like, okay, like this, this this will work for me.
Speaker 2 (51:25):
I picked up Luke Raley in my home league, probably
in like I don't know, July or August. And the
one thing that strikes me about Raley is you know,
you refer to it, but how much he's he's going
to play against lefties and likely not not very much.
So my I like Railey a lot for all the
(51:48):
reasons you mentioned. I especially like him in daily lineup leagues,
although I know that most of the people listening probably
playing weekly leagues. But yeah, you know, you can still
find a way for those players to work because you know,
often it's going to be even if it's you know,
two out of three games in a half week are
(52:12):
going to be against right handed pitching, it's often still
worth worth it to start that player because your other
options are probably going to be either worse or also
platoon options. So yeah, I think he's definitely rosterble in
fifteen team leagues and someone you probably cycle in, you know,
periodically throughout the season.
Speaker 1 (52:31):
Yeah, all right, I think we're going let's wrap up.
I'll take a breath, and we'll close out. Thank you
(53:03):
for listening to Episode three twenty one of Flags Fly Forever,
a Baseball Perspective Fantasy Baseball podcast. As I said before,
next week kicks off our coverage of the twenty twenty
five season, and we're starting with first base. As I
said before, there's gonna be about twenty articles a week.
I just I'm not going to run down every single one.
(53:24):
But they'll be my teared rankings, ADP analysis, they'll be
Dynasty coverage from Jesse Roche. They'll be the ten ninety scale,
they'll be the Deep League reports, they'll be the target
and Avoid pieces. It is that time of year. We
will have everything first base next week. If you're not
a subscribe. If you're a subscriber, thank you. If not,
(53:45):
I hope you join us. This is really the time
of year to get that in action. For Mike Jell
and John Hagland, thank you very much. We'll be back
next week with catchers.
Speaker 2 (53:54):
I just want to say quickly before we sign off,
I want to thank again the band Petite League for
giving us generously giving us permission to use their song
mets for our opening and break music. And uh and
please once again follow us on blue Sky. We have
left Twitter slash x behind for good. I will be
(54:17):
deleting that account. We will be on blue Sky at
flagsly forever, dot b Sky, dot social and we will
see you next week.
Speaker 1 (54:25):
Bye.
Speaker 2 (54:29):
All right, it's good we did it.
Speaker 1 (54:33):
Yeah. One of the books I didn't even really yet,
I like.
Speaker 4 (54:37):
Yeah, talking about Yeah, the
Speaker 2 (55:32):
M
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