January 24, 2025 • 53 mins
Mike and Jon would never police your keystone decisions (get it? Keystone Cops?) but we do take a deep dive into Mike's tiers at a position that is best described as "globular." Many of the top players are on downward-descending aging curves, and there's a pretty thick middle where you can find many flawed-but-interesting options.
Flags Fly Forever is a Baseball Prospectus podcast. For more fantasy baseball information, visit baseballprospectus.com and click on "Fantasy."
You can find Flags Fly Forever on Bluesky (@flagsflyforever.bsky.social). The hosts of Flags Fly Forever are Mike Gianella(@mikegianella.bsky.social) and Jon Hegglund(@jonhegglund.bsky.social). The producer of Flags Fly Forever is Jon Hegglund.
Special thanks to the awesome and generous Petite League for permission to use their track "Mets" for the intro and break music. Find their sweet lo-fi indie-pop sounds at petiteleague.com.
Flags Fly Forever is a Baseball Prospectus podcast. For more fantasy baseball information, visit baseballprospectus.com and click on "Fantasy."
You can find Flags Fly Forever on Bluesky (@flagsflyforever.bsky.social). The hosts of Flags Fly Forever are Mike Gianella(@mikegianella.bsky.social) and Jon Hegglund(@jonhegglund.bsky.social). The producer of Flags Fly Forever is Jon Hegglund.
Special thanks to the awesome and generous Petite League for permission to use their track "Mets" for the intro and break music. Find their sweet lo-fi indie-pop sounds at petiteleague.com.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:27):
Welcome to episode three twenty three of Flags Fly Forever,
a Baseball Prospectus Fantasy baseball podcast. I'm Mike Chanella and
over there on the other side of the proverbial glasses,
John Haguins.
Speaker 2 (00:40):
Help you out. Uh hey, Mike, I just cracked my
I just cracked my third non alcoholic beer the night.
So are you need a party?
Speaker 1 (00:52):
Are you not drinking for a reason? Or well, it's
out if you want to, we can talk about it later.
Speaker 2 (00:59):
So no, no, no, this will be brief. I think I
mentioned to you, but my wife is doing a thing
called Whole thirty some of you listeners may know about
for various health and lifestyle reasons. And while I am
not one hundred faithful to the plan, I am in
spirit trying to to be a good a good partner
(01:24):
and participate and so with that comes virtually no drinking.
Speaker 1 (01:30):
So yeah, I'm hitting.
Speaker 2 (01:32):
A non alcoholic sauce pretty hard tonight.
Speaker 1 (01:35):
Yeah. I actually haven't been drinking since the New Year.
And it's not because of a resolution. I'm not really
a resolutions person. It's because I'm training for half marathon
and I decided that. Yeah, I decided to stop drinking
until it's over. Of course, as John knows, I caught
a nasty like like flu earlier this week. I'm still
(01:55):
recovering and probably here a little bit my voice. So
we're gonna probably try to zip right through this, you know,
rather than continue pleasantly talking to each other as we
like to do. So let's uh, let's get started. John,
do you want to introduce the premise for our hopefully
new listeners or shall I?
Speaker 2 (02:13):
Sure well, I will introduce and you can fill in
if I miss anything. We base our podcast on Mike's
Tears article, which will come out next Tuesday, I believes,
and Mike ranks the players out of position in terms
(02:33):
of their tiers, starting with the five star tier, and
you can fill in the I always forget the rounds.
A five stars is the first two rounds.
Speaker 1 (02:43):
Five stars one to two, four stars three to six.
You go three stars seven to thirteen, two stars fourteen
to nineteen. By the way, the fifteen team leagues is
like deeper formats, and then yeah, the one star is
like kind of through round like twenty three. And if
there are fewer than thirty players at a position that
are like do not fit the bill, and our reserve picks,
(03:04):
which can happen even in a deep league. We have
a zero star tier.
Speaker 2 (03:09):
Zero stars, What a way to live. Yeah, so let's
let's nip through the five starsier. There is no five
stars here.
Speaker 1 (03:17):
Yeah, that was that was easy. Well, I mean, you know,
I think you'll see this in my article on Tuesday.
You know, Mookie Betts, we missed you. It was a
nice year and now you're gone. So that's kind of
a theme or a little sneak preview, is that, you know,
due to shifting and there's always shifting of people in
and out of the position, that's a pretty big loss.
And one of the names in the four stars here,
(03:38):
and we'll get to this shortly, could be in the
five stars. Heer, he's kind of run on the border
and cran ADP. But I decided to put him in
the four stars here, and there's no objections to that.
So three names in the four starsier. So this is
again rounds three to six according to my rankings, Ketl Marte,
Joseell Tuo by Ozzie Albi's and and again based off
(03:58):
of ADP. This is not on a particularly controversial list.
Marte is clearly ahead all two of ban Albi's have
kind of been bouncing back and forth with a pick
or two of each other. So yeah, this is in
terms of my ranking. I didn't do this deliberately. I
tend to rank before I look at ADP. This is
kind of a owner.
Speaker 2 (04:19):
It's interesting that we have two older players at the
top of the position. And is this the first time
that in recent memory when there hasn't been a five
star at second base? I know it frequently happens a catcher,
as we discussed last week, but is it it's if
(04:42):
my memory serves, it's pretty uncommon that there's not even
one five star player.
Speaker 1 (04:46):
Well, it's uncommon, but probably not as uncommon as say
like third or actually almost any other in field position.
I feel like the top and second is typically a
little bit better, I believe, And I have to go
back and look, and I'm not going to do that
because that is not good, you know content. But I
do believe that it's something that's happened before. But you
(05:09):
are right, like it hasn't happened a lot, and you
know some of it too, is like there have been
years for example where you know, I mentioned Mookie Bets,
Trey Turner was at second base one year and he was,
you know, in the five star tier, and you know
that kind of stuff happens. Yeah, So twenty twenty three,
there were no five star there were no five star
second Basement. And then I believe in twenty twenty two,
(05:32):
and I'm very disappointed myself because I made the same
joke about Trey Turner two years ago that I was
going to make about Mookie Betts. And now I feel
a little sheepish about that. So you might not see
it in Tuesday's edition. I believe it was just Trey Turner.
So actually Ozi Albi's was up there too. So to
(05:52):
your point, yes, it's rare, but it happens, and I
think some of it is like in real life second base.
I don't want to denerate the position, but it's sort
of in terms of the offensive profile at least the
defense matters more. But unlike shortstop, it's not necessarily where
your superstar sits. Again, I'm there are players historically like
(06:15):
Joe Morgan, like Craig Vigio, like Jase Sutley. I'm not
going to rattle through all of them. I'm not saying
this is always true. I'm just saying that's kind of
where we're we've been at the last few years.
Speaker 2 (06:24):
So to talk about could tell Marte it's it's I
think it is worth talking about the players in this
tier for a minute because I think my instinct when
I look at Marte going this high is to fade
it a little bit because of you know, it's it's
a standout, I mean, close to a career year, if
(06:48):
not a career year for Marte. But you know, when
I look under the hood a little bit, you know,
everything all the bad of ball metrics, and this is
a position, as we'll talk about, where you have a
lot of players who just don't hit the ball hard.
But Marte was you know, his battle ball metrics are great.
(07:11):
You know, there's really nothing in the profile to get
concerned about. And he is only thirty one, you know,
he's been around a while, so he might seem older.
So are you do you feel like people are overpaying
for last year or do you feel like because the
position levels off pretty quickly, that getting you know, the
(07:33):
top at the position is actually worth a little more.
Speaker 1 (07:37):
It's probably more of the second thing that because the
position levels off, there's some premium to getting Marte there,
like I'm with you, I have him ranked like a
little lower than his current eighty piece. Let's see the
document I pulled, and hopefully we pulled the same thing,
so we're not slightly off like we've been. I'm showing
him at twenty ninth overall, so right, ye, toward the
(07:58):
back end of the second round, and I think I
have him like thirty eighth, which sounds like a lot, right,
but really, you know, all that means I might have
some pictures in there, I might have one or two
players I've got a preference for over over the market.
It's not a big difference. So if you want, if
you want to take Marte to he had a second
I don't even push him a little bit. That's fine.
(08:19):
I don't really think there's an argument against him. For me.
It's more like, well, I want him to come much
closer to what he does last year to kind of
make me pull the trigger on this pick. And I
see twenty twenty three as the more likely outcome, which
is good. I'm not like, I don't think you to
be unless he gets hurting it. I don't thk to
be too disappointed in Marte. I just don't necessarily see
(08:42):
him as someone where it's like I'd be jazzed to
make this pick.
Speaker 2 (08:46):
Yeah, And I think also when you're talking about second base,
you would be you know, taking your starter at the
position without a lot of steals. I mean, you know
seven last year projections have him at seven eight, so
high single digit steals. You know, that's that's not nothing.
But for the position, this is often a position where
(09:06):
you can find and you know, we will see a
lot of high steals guys in the in the lower tiers.
So so that's fine. I think that's that's enough. On
Marte al Tuove and all these are going very close
to each other. It's like, yeah, sixty four and sixty
five as as far as their adp ALTV go going
(09:31):
slightly ahead. I you know, I feel I feel like
I feel stronger about or better about picking Altuve. Here
there are some warning slight warning signs with Altu me
like the power in terms of not necessarily in terms
of the home runs, but some of the batter ball
(09:52):
numbers have declined a little bit, and he is what
like thirty four, so I feel you could see a
bit of a clin but I don't think he's going
to fall off because he's you know, he's got so
he's so good batsball and he still has speed. So
I'm actually okay with al two A at this at
(10:12):
this price point.
Speaker 1 (10:13):
And I mean not to you know, make this the
most boring podcast ever, but I agree with you, and
I actually prefer all to Bay to Albi's by quite
a bit, which prices more about Albi's and we can
you know, certainly I guess get into that. Yeah, but
you know what I was looking for about al Tuo
Bay because I this is at my piece, like he's
(10:35):
somebody who for years, like like he knows how to
use his home park and then you can, you know,
leave the if you want to make your trash can joke,
go ahead, but you know, well beyond that, like he's
somebody who has constantly exceeded stack cast like he has
constantly and I'm actually trying to pull up like what
the averages like year over year like and you know
(10:56):
it excludes the pandemic. But yeah, it's just the thing
I get it, Like he's getting into that point of
the age curve where I'm a little uncomfortable and I
think you run a risk of drafting like a fifteen
to fifteen season here with a two eighty average, which
would be like, well, that's okay, but you know, why
did I spend you know, this pick here to get that?
(11:16):
But I think there's another year in the tank, Like
I feel like, I feel that there's one more year
of a jose L Tube where I'm like, okay, I
believe enough in him, you know, to pull that off.
And yeah, what it is is, you know, excluding twenty
twenty this is his career, he's outpaced expected batting average
by like, you know, thirty seven points and expected slugging
(11:38):
by fifty eight. It doesn't mean it's repeatable, but I
think just looking at his projections, particularly projection going off
a bat a ball metrics is is a little bit lazy.
Speaker 2 (11:48):
Yeah, it's it's true. And you know, if you look
at the spray chart, I mean you do see like
a much more pull heavy profile in twenty twenty four
than in previous years. But you know, that's it's good
that he plays in Houston, is all I will say.
That's that And it's the same thing. It's the same
reason when we get to third base, you know, depending
(12:09):
on if we know where Alex Bragman's gonna go you
know that that might change his profile drastically. So I
do want to hear a little bit about all these
I know we won't talk about every single player, but
I am curious about why. I have my own reasons,
but I'm curious about what your coolness toward the Albi's is.
Speaker 1 (12:30):
I mean, statistically speaking, he has he said, one well
above average year in the last five and yes, when
it was a pandemic year, so you can throw that out.
So one in the last four. I mean, otherwise he's
had two seasons fore he's been hurt, and the numbers, like,
even if you parade them to a full season, have
been very you know, good, but not like tremendous. I
(12:53):
feel like the bet on him as ooh, it's an
even I'm sorry odd here he's gonna do great, and
it's like, well, okay, Like is that really what we're
we're betting on here? Honestly, I'd love to see him
stop switch hitting like he tried at the end of
the year because he was hurt, yes, and see what
would happen like that. That's a large part of his
problem too, Like for the most part, he does most
(13:15):
of his damage, you know, and on one side of
the plate, and it's it's not the side that you
you know typically I think last year was atypical, but
it's not the side of the plate you typically want
that from. So and he has so many at bats
and twenty twenty three is the example, like four five
or twenty two plate appearances as a left hander, one
(13:35):
thirty three as a right hander demolished, you know, left handers,
was okay against right handers. I wrote this about him
last year too, which is like, well, take the twenty
twenty three abbeys. I don't necessarily want to bet on
a guy hitting even in a small sample, you know,
having an ops over a thousand against lefties. It just
(13:57):
doesn't it doesn't feel like a bet. Like I'm not
completely denigrating all these there's a price i'd take him at.
He's just not somebody I want at this price point.
And it's some of the march I thing you talked
about too, which is will will he run? I mean maybe,
but coming off the injuries he's been coming off of,
I feel like eight to ten steals is a safer
(14:19):
bet than him popping up to the twenty he stole
in twenty twenty one, so at that point you need
like twenty five home runs and a good average at
this price, like it, it feels like it's asking a lot.
I don't think good line up, good context. I don't
feel like you're gonna be like all kinds of sad
at this pic, but it does feel like you could
do better later that second.
Speaker 2 (14:40):
Yeah, no, I agree, And I think my general take
on Alby's is that it's just very difficult too. I
don't feel good about a floor for him. I feel
like a lot, a lot could could go wrong, much
more so than than i'l twov. Should we move to
the three star.
Speaker 1 (14:59):
We should because there's a lot of names, and I'm.
Speaker 2 (15:01):
Sure there are a lot of names.
Speaker 1 (15:02):
I'm sure we will not, you know, I'm sure we
will not talk about every one of these players.
Speaker 2 (15:10):
Sorry to ours, I have I have detailed notes for everyone.
Speaker 1 (15:14):
Sure, I'll hang up and Okay, So the three star tiers,
so again, this is like the seventh to the thirteenth round.
This is in my order of preference. But again these
are tiers, so not exact. Matt McLain, Marcus Semion, Nico Horner,
Jordan Westburg, Luis Garcia, under Semenas, Luisa Riyes, Bryce Terang,
(15:36):
Sandra Bogart's labor Torres, Luis Renhifo, and Bryson stopped. So yeah,
that that's a big, big clump of players with lots
of different skills. Like there's there's some speed first players,
there's some power first players, there's players who do both.
Speaker 2 (15:54):
I have a question. I'm gonna start with a question
because we both have McLain fourth overall of the position.
Is it crazy to have a guy with just over
four hundred Major League played appearances and a miss fear
up this high.
Speaker 1 (16:15):
It might be. I will say, I don't like to
like waste spring training too much, but he is somebody
who you know, if he gets off to a slow start,
if he misses a couple of days or more than
a couple of days, I might move him down. I
think my bigger concern is like the multiple injuries and
that you know, to your point, he didn't play at
(16:36):
all last year, like not even in the minors, And
you know, a lot of what you're looking at, like
the projections to me look rosy because I think they're
just looking at twenty twenty three and kind of spinning
off of that minus a few steals and they're dropping
the average show. So I don't completely you know, say
the projections are just being rosy, but yeah, I I
(16:57):
could see a scenario where he's not nearly this good.
I think the reason to leave him here is the upside.
And I'm shooting in that park like we we've seen
that park like make you know, some hitters who are
less talented than the McLain can be like into some
pretty productive fantasy players.
Speaker 2 (17:14):
He's also kind of surrounded by players who are at
that sort of inflection point of their careers where you're
starting to see some decline. I mean, we mentioned al
Tuva not as drastic, but you know, Semon had a
very down year. Batty ball data doesn't look great. Xander Bogart's,
(17:38):
you know, is there, and so it's and there's you know,
we still have those players and you know, relatively high.
But this is feels like the one player who has
a lot of a lot of growth possibility here.
Speaker 1 (17:53):
So yeah, yeah, I mean I would I might add
Luis Garcia to that too, you know, if you're talking
about growth. But yeah, I I think McLean the case.
If you are talking about the growth pick here, McLain is,
if he's healthy is probably the biggest one. Although for
sure that that's the giant question. I don't I don't doubt,
and and my ranking is kind of neutral to ADP,
(18:14):
which means I probably won't get him in a lot
of places unless you know, he starts falling. I'm sure
i'd be okay with him. I'm not like who I
got to go get.
Speaker 2 (18:21):
Him going right around pick one hundred over the last
fifty draft champions. So yeah, that's I think that's that's fair.
In any given room, you're likely to have a mclin
booster anyway. Who do you want to talk about next?
There's probably at least two more players in this tier
I want to talk about.
Speaker 1 (18:42):
Let's talk about Bryce ter Rang because I have a
one of them. Based on our conversation earlier that you
you think I'm too low on him.
Speaker 2 (18:51):
No, I I not really. I mean I'm I'm I
think I'm slightly higher, but I you know, looking more
deeply into him, I might actually be tempted to move
him down. So, I mean, you pointed out the falloff
last year, and it was pretty it was pretty dramatic.
(19:12):
Of five sixty four ohps in the second half. You know,
he didn't run as much. Still twenty steals in the
second half, but we appear the power disappeared. Not that
it was a ton to begin with.
Speaker 1 (19:24):
Oh, but if you're getting eight to ten home runs
and those steals and a two sixty average. The weird
thing about this is I'm the steels guy. I'm usually
the one that's telling people, Hey, don't discount steels just
because you think you can get them, or there's so many,
like they're valuable, don't don't do that. And what I'm
saying here is like, well, this is sort of I
don't ever sell it, but this this is kind of
(19:45):
the old Malex Smith thing where it's like, if you're
taking a player like this in the top one fifty
and he doesn't like you know, he does nothing but run,
and you get an empty thirty steals in or twenty
five to thirty steals in today's context, I think you
blew this pick. That that's kind of my problem, Like
I I he might work and he might very well
(20:06):
be fine, and and heck if he if I'm wrong,
and he worked hard this winter and he comes to
spring training and looks there and he'd be a bargain.
But I look at somebody like, well, I could see
Caleb Durban if he makes a team stealing some of
the bats. I could see the Brewers. You know, they're
not really known for their patuons as much as some
other teams, but they have been willing to do that.
(20:26):
So if that happens. I look at Terang like, well,
you know his and I just want to check this
before I'm you know, talking out of like you know where,
like his defense is good, but it's not like super
special where it's like, oh my gosh, second base. So yeah,
I and that this is kind of it's more about
some of the players in this tier. Does he have
the most steals upside? Sure, I mean outside of Nico
(20:50):
Horner if if he's healthy, I don't think Day, which
is a giant if. But beyond that, it's like, well,
I don't see a lot else there. It'd almost rather
take home for thirty to thirty five steals from one
of these other names and avoid Terrang.
Speaker 2 (21:04):
I mean even more dramatically, like looking at I like,
what is the difference between Terrang and Michael Garcia. You know,
when it comes down to it. Like if you look
at terreng second half, you know, it's like like you say,
it's an empty steels play and you've you've got Garcia
in the next year. Well, the other thing out, well,
(21:26):
I was just.
Speaker 1 (21:26):
Gonna say this this is I don't want this is.
And yeah, you were not one of the Garcia Michael
Garcia people. But this is my argument against Garcia. Last
year people were like looking at him and getting excited
and you know, like kind of like looking at you know,
baty ball metrics, like like you know, like squinting to
see the bad battle ball Mextrom, like, look, he doesn't
hit the ball at hard and it steals and the
average is bad and a lot and go sideways like that.
(21:48):
That was the argument. And yes, if you can get
Tarrang just outside of the top two hundred, I think
that's great. He's just not going to go there.
Speaker 2 (21:56):
I think I think Warner is actually the more instructive
compare in here because Horner was his ADP was so
high last year I think largely because projections were drawing
on the previous season when he had what I forget
how many steals it was, what forty something.
Speaker 1 (22:13):
I think it was close to fifty. I think, oh,
you know, yeah, don't make me looktter.
Speaker 2 (22:18):
No, No, that's not relevant to the point. I mean,
the point I guess I want to make is about
how steels projections. I just don't trust them. And it's
not that I don't think Terrang isn't going to run
and I don't think you know that. It's not that
I think he's going to, you know, end up with
fifteen steals if he's healthy. It's just that I feel
(22:40):
like the range between like thirty and fifty is so fluid,
right that you you could be drafting someone.
Speaker 1 (22:49):
Who yeah, yeah, well I was going to say, I'm sorry.
I think the other difference too, is that like Horner
brings some average. This is the other piece too, which
is you you want to have If you're going to
take a speed player, you want something else, right, Like
you either want a player at the top lineup who's
(23:11):
going to score a ton of runs or I mean
ideally want both these things, but or you want batting average.
If you're not getting either of those things, like then
it's like, well, like what I'm what am I paying
for here? I'm paying for a lot of steels you know,
as we know, like you can pick up steals like
we did less Yere at different position we did less
You're in the main event with Victor Roeblist. You can
pick up steels in season. I mean it's not like easier.
(23:34):
You can't snap your fingers, but you can find them.
I just again, this is the draft class thing, like
taking terrang at the you know, I want to turn
this into that hate Brice Train podcast. He's a fine player,
but for fantasy, you know, taking him at the beginning
of the tenth round or the nine ten turn. I
just there's a lot of better ways I prefer to
use that pick.
Speaker 2 (23:54):
Yeah, I mean, you're you're resting everything on a pretty
flimsy steals projection and not a lot else. So yeah,
I mean I think we we actually agree, and I
probably will re examine my my terrang ranking. I'll take
a terrang test.
Speaker 1 (24:13):
I was wondering if you would make you better, like
hearing it than an attack, so well, really I.
Speaker 2 (24:22):
Thought I thought it would be the opposite. Anyway. Another
player I want to talk about is Jordan Westburg, who
is going as the fourth second basement off the board,
also as a third base eligibility inside the top one hundred.
I will just give my my quick piece on on Westburg,
(24:45):
who I drafted in a lot of places last year,
enjoyed his April. Uh he kind of rode that reputation
or that that publicity he got from a hot April.
And it's not like he collapsed, but things steadily went
down month by month, you know, whether it's him getting
figured out or you know, just that that April is
(25:05):
maybe an outlier. I think he's a good player. I
don't know that I think he's a top one hundred player.
I think he will you know, get you maybe twenty
ish homers. The steals or are not exceptional, but they'll
be you know, somewhere in the teams probably, And so
(25:26):
that's that's all very good. But I don't think the
average is going to be a you know, a game changer.
And I think he's he's he's You could get that
production a little bit later.
Speaker 1 (25:38):
Yeah, this tier, so second base and what we'll get
to this in the later tiers, Like there are a
number of players here who are better in real life
than fantasy like that that that's a theme for second base,
and I think in real life, like Jordan Westberg is
a very good player who could take a step up
(25:58):
to being like close to excellence. But yeah, I like
the projections. I'm kind of like, well, I see like
a twenty ten player and I'm not really even confident
in the ten, and it's kind of like, well, like
it all could work. The other thing too, is Baltimore.
It's not quite the same at other positions, but they
do have still have like young players on the rise,
(26:20):
like people coming up. I'm not saying they'll bench Westburg,
but I could see a scenario where he doesn't quite
play every day and you're maybe looking at one hundred
and twenty hundred and thirty games, you know, as opposed
to one hundred and fifty. It's just something just the
things with him where I think he's okay. It's another
price point thing. I see Semion and McClain going here.
(26:41):
I'd rather have. I mean a little cool on Semion,
but I think I'd rather have either of them over Westburg.
Speaker 2 (26:48):
Yeah, I definitely would. I mean in my own I
actually have him down. Where do I have him? I
can't can't find it now. Oh yeah, I have them
actually down after Luisa rise. But so that would be one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight.
(27:08):
I have I have them as my tenth second basement.
So I'm obviously way, I'm a little I've lived in
the market. Yeah, okay, anyone else in this tier. I
mean it's a lot of you can sort of see
the you know, the types like I see like Andre
Semenez and Bryce and Scott as kind of a you know,
(27:29):
doppelgangers in a lot of ways.
Speaker 1 (27:31):
I think I want to I want to ask like
a broad question churches. So there's a couple of players
in Westburg could fit this bill, but like Glabor Torres
is another one. Do you believe that you have to
get some steals, like particularly if you're drafting like like
early enough and particularly like the only player who really
doesn't have many steals attached to his profile potentially is
(27:53):
Kettle Marte, where it's like, well, okay, fine, like I'll
get six steals, but I get so much of everything
else that I don't really care, and I'll get my
steels elsewhere. With Glabor, and I'm a little warm on him,
warmer on him than the market. I think some of
it is the park he's moving too, But I also
think some of it is he pretty much stopped running
like like after stealing like four bases very early on,
(28:16):
And that's kind of the fear. I think the fear
is like, well, if I draft Labor, he doesn't run
at all. And he said, you know, even if he
hits twenty twenty five home runs, I'm just not getting
much and he really needs to maybe even do a
little bit more than that for him to be a
value or a par here.
Speaker 2 (28:33):
Yeah, I mean he's going after after pick two hundred, right, I.
Speaker 1 (28:37):
Have ranked higher than like, Yeah, the ADP would make
him a two story That's what I'm saying. I'm a
slightly more robust on him.
Speaker 2 (28:46):
I look at the names. I look at the names
ahead of him, and there there are like three speed
guys in terms of ADP, Nico Horner, Michael Garcia, and
Zach Geloff.
Speaker 1 (28:57):
And we'll get we'll get to them.
Speaker 2 (28:58):
We'll get to there. But I think I would rather
have whereas. I mean to answer your question, No, I
don't think you need steals from any position. You just
need steals in general. So it just you know, forces
you to in draft, you know, reassess and reallocate. But no,
if it's the value there obviously.
Speaker 1 (29:18):
Yeah, I also think like it's a thing where you know,
if early you drafted your don and I don't know,
like somebody else without steals, then sure you probably don't
want to, like draft too many guys like that, unless you're,
you know, in a standalone league where you can throw
a category because it'll cost you. But I think otherwise,
if you're just having a normal draft or like, okay,
(29:39):
like I seem to have some of this, I seem
to have some of that, I don't think taking a
player like this is particularly harmful. And before we move on,
I don't think we need to give the Luisa rise
batting average is good, he's undervalue speech. We get that
speech every year.
Speaker 2 (29:55):
I would just say to to you know, finish off.
The point about drafting steals is if you're getting to
the fourteenth round and you need steals from your second basement,
that I think you've you've not you know, you've made
some strategic errors prior to the fourteenth round, you know
what I mean.
Speaker 1 (30:13):
That's a fair that's a fair point. Although it's funny
because this is a point about and we can get
to this in a later Strategy podcast. But you know,
in drafts where a lot of like pitchers and people
like I have to have my two closers and I
have to have my you know, two catchers. That can't
happen like I. I've been listening to other podcasts where
(30:34):
there's a lot of ooh, I want to have two
catchers in the first twelve rounds, and oh I want
to have two closers in the first eight rounds. It's like, well,
I do too. Those players I can get later. Well,
I laugh, because you know, we're again, I'm playing the
short podcast. But you know, Alex Patton years ago one
of his books had something about like, you know, I
(30:54):
want this closer, and you know, I only want to
pay this much for which is you know, five dollars
under his value, and you have this closer who's eight
dollars three dollars of his value. We all get bargains.
It's like, well, that's just not the way it works.
Like you know, you're you're gonna pay the piper somewhere.
Speaker 2 (31:11):
Should we go to the two stars or is there
anything else?
Speaker 1 (31:14):
I don't. I don't think so unless there's somebody here
that you you know, yeah, we're okay. So two stars.
There's slightly fewer names, but it's still a thick tier
and I already have I want to say regrets, but
I think there's somebody here who I probably should move down.
So but let's see here. I always mix up the
(31:35):
low Lao things.
Speaker 2 (31:37):
This one's loud.
Speaker 1 (31:38):
I thought this one's loud. So Brandon Lao, Michael Garcia,
Colt Keith, David Hamilton, Tyro Estrada, Zach Geloff, Willie Castro,
Jackson Holliday, and Brendan Donovan, who was the only staff change.
I had him in the one star tier and it
was recommended I moved him up and I was like, yeah, sure.
Speaker 2 (32:01):
So the thing that that jumps out to me about
this tier kind of a mixed bag. I really wish
Brandon Loo was not on the Rays. Now. Maybe it's
good that he's on the Rays now. I forget. Is
it is it uh left handed hitters who get the
advantage in the in the Saint Petersburg Park.
Speaker 1 (32:23):
I believe it's I believe it's lefties.
Speaker 2 (32:24):
Yes, Okay, well good, But I wish that he was
not platooned. I wish they just plugged, plugged him in
every day. He among most of the players you know,
I just sort of sorted on stackcast by hard hit
and you know, uh, ex the velocity at the position,
because I noticed so many players in the three and
(32:45):
two star tier we're just you know, little just there there,
we're not hitting the ball hard. And other than Marte
Lao is the one who actually still hits the ball
very hard. But you know that he is. The raisedness
of him kind of puts a cap on you know.
(33:05):
I think a player who could be like a thirty
regularly hit thirty home runs a year, but yeah, that's
that's so, I guess loo here is still kind of
interesting to me.
Speaker 1 (33:17):
I've always liked him, I do think. And the reason
he's appropriately valued here and I don't have him higher
is simply because in most leagues, like outside of an
only league, you probably do need a bit of a
plan with him. There might be the odd week here
and there where he's you know, the Rays have a
six game week, They're facing three lefties and you're like,
(33:40):
I'm going to be missing a lot of playing time
because of the way the races. So that's kind of
like one problem with him. I mean, another problem with
him is that you know, I hate injury prone but
he's part of the reason he's missed time as he's
had his share of injuries he miss I'm using the
handy injury timeline tool at Baseball perspect this.
Speaker 2 (34:00):
It's a really good tool.
Speaker 1 (34:01):
It is really good. I would say that even if
I didn't, you know, work there and wasn't a shameless plugger.
But he missed forty one days last year with an
oblique strain right at the beginning of the year. He
missed like a month with back inflammation in twenty twenty three,
and at the end of the season. I mean, it's
nobody's fault, but fractured patella, you know, missed the end
(34:22):
of the season. So you know, I'm trying to see. Yeah,
twenty twenty two, you know, missed a bunch of time too,
two months because of his back. So between the injuries
of the platoon, I like him a lot. And he's
one of those players where if you can strategically get
him into your lineup at the right times, you have
some flexibility. It's great if you're in a league with
(34:42):
like doesn't have a lot of like reserver il flexibility.
He's a little bit tougher to roster.
Speaker 2 (34:50):
Agreed who else strikes your fancy in this in this tier? Well,
is this where you confess to your your a dying
enthusiast for Tyro Estrada.
Speaker 1 (35:01):
No, although it is funny because this is just a
typical we were talking. I have this for the show,
this typical early ADP versus you know, current ADP. At
one point, a Strata look like a bargain a lot
of people. I wonder why that is. It's like, well,
because he's not signed anywhere, and he you know, was
terrible last year, no offense giants, and now he's in cores.
And even if it doesn't work, you know, a scenario
(35:24):
where he like is kind of like Ryan McMahon with
little more steals like seems possible at second base. So
I do like Estrata at his price. I think that
by the time, if you're normal and not a sicco
and you're doing your draft, you know, listening to this
a month from now, I don't know how applicable this
will be because like Estrata now is at a three
(35:45):
twenty eight AAP, I think that's going to continue to climb,
and I would guess he's going to be somewhere into
like mid to high two hundreds. You know, as we
get closer to the season.
Speaker 2 (35:56):
Okay, enough about him?
Speaker 1 (35:59):
Who who you?
Speaker 2 (36:00):
Who else are you going to talk about?
Speaker 1 (36:02):
I mean the other guy? You know, there's a lot
of names here that I don't want to say they're generic,
but like someone like cold Keith is fine and I
see some upside and you know what's really interesting about Keith?
You know we're talking about Jordan Westburg is if he
gets a little better. I don't want to say he's Westburg,
but at the price point difference, you're like, huh, Like
I can kind of live with col Keith as my
middle infielder if he's gonna pop like fifteen home runs
(36:24):
and steal I don't know, eight to ten bases with
a decent average. I think there's a lot of players
like that. So those here to be careful not to
fall in love with the fifty home run ten steel profile.
It's it's a fantasy nerd thing to be excited about.
It's not a real thing to be excited about. The
guy I want to talk about is Zach Geloff. I
he scares me. I get it, I completely get it.
(36:47):
I get why he's exciting. Lots of power, lots of speed.
But if you look at the players you know in
their age twenty four season who struck out as much
as he did, it just isn't. There's like two successful players,
you know in the last you know, going back to
like the eighties and like Trevor Stories one and a
(37:10):
lot of that was Cores and he did actually improve too.
And the other one was Mark Reynolds. And Mark Reynolds
was a freak in terms of power, and I don't
think Geloff has that like level of power to him. So, yeah,
could he get better? Sure? Is there upside? Absolutely, And
if you're in a shallow league and you're playing in
(37:30):
a twelve team league, I don't have a problem with
taking him at the end to be like, you know what,
maybe gets hot for two weeks in Sacramento and it works,
and I'm a genius, And in that format, I take
him over a lot of these names. And this is
sort of the Brendan Donod thing, like Brendan Donald in
a deeper league, sure I want him over Gelloff because
it's a deeper league and he's going to play every day.
He's reliable and boring, and it'said fifteen to ten thing
(37:53):
I just talked about, Like, that's probably the upside with
lots of you know, playing time and lots of flexibility eventually.
But yeah, the deeper leads you and I plan, John,
I think I'll be avoiding go Off this year.
Speaker 2 (38:06):
So just to play a devil's advocate for a second,
because I generally agree with you, But I'm looking at
at Geloff's projection. So just looking at steamer twenty one homers,
sixty seven runs, RBI twenty three steals to twenty five average.
What category are you most worried about? Because I hear
(38:31):
everything you're saying. But if they run him out for
you know, one hundred and forty two hundred and fifty
games next year, you know he's other than the likelihood
of a stinky average, which you're you know, sort of
baked into the projection, although it could be a lot
lower than twenty five. You I don't see how you're
(38:52):
not going to get that kind of production. He's not
in the coliseum anymore. So tell me, tell me where
you're worried.
Speaker 1 (38:59):
In this streuction. It is the average. But the other
thing I look at is so the projection bakes in
like about a three percent strikeout drop and if he
can pull that off, if he can drop his strikeouts
even from like thirty four and a half or so
to thirty one, and you know raises walk rate a
little bit, Yeah, I see the path for improvement to him.
(39:20):
He just is one of the most free swingers that
like I've I shouldn't say that, want to be too hyperbolic.
He does walk somewhat, but he swings and misses a lot.
That's a better way to put it. And I think
that's my concern. My concern is that I know they
have no one else to play it. That's the argument
I've heard. But if he's striking out at a thirty
eight to forty thirty eight to forty percent clip, I
(39:43):
don't even think it's the average. I think at some
point the team is going to look at him and go,
he's twenty five. We need to fix this, We need
to make this right. You know, the guy that I'm
thinking about a little bit, who I fell in love with,
and maybe this is a cop, this is just my memory,
you know thinking about him is Kesena. I was so
(40:03):
excited about and he had to speed, but he had
the power. I loved him and I remember in twenty
twenty one, I was mad at people for who were like,
he's going to fail. I don't like this. I don't
like that. And it's like, well, lesson learned, Mike. You
you got really sucked into a player who struck out
thirty five percent of the time. And that's what I'm nearer.
You're a straight and I know the Brewers were competitive.
(40:25):
It's a different situation, but I think it's really tough
to justify. So let's say Kessenira is the floor. Let
let's say what he did in twenty twenty one, where
he you know, had two hundred played appearances, roughly hit
one sixty eight, got on base twenty five percent of
the time or twenty six cent of the time, struck
out almost forty percent of the time, with Brewers like, no,
we can't, we can't do this, Like at some point
(40:46):
you can't do it to the player no matter what
your situation is, and that that's what I'm working.
Speaker 2 (40:52):
Yeah, okay, yeah, I just I mean, I'm looking at
the names around him, and I guess eve In with
some you know there there's there's upside that to me,
is a lot more exciting than than cold Keith, you know,
just to take the name you have right in front
of him, even though it's clear Keith has a much
(41:12):
higher floor. He's well again, I did this is the
competent major league last year.
Speaker 1 (41:17):
This is definitely the shallow, like deeply thing sure like
in a shallower league. I want gell Off, I want you,
I even want Jackson Holiday. It's a similar thing where
it's like, Okay, I missed, I missed on Gelof. I
will take Jackson Holiday. I will cross my fingers. I
will hope he figures it out this year.
Speaker 2 (41:33):
See now, Holiday, I think it's the you know, just
from your your you know, outlining of the hero situation
because Holiday, because your ols are competitive, and they I
don't think they would let Holiday hit. I don't want
seventy for you know, for a month, so I Holiday
words worries me more than Geof.
Speaker 1 (41:54):
Also, the projections a lot less power, a lot less speed.
I mean, he's really young, and I think that's some
of the it's just this problem, like it's sort of
a larger baseball institutional problem that we're not going to
solve tonight.
Speaker 2 (42:06):
John.
Speaker 1 (42:07):
I'm sorry to tell you that, but like they kind
of I won't say they felt compelled to promote. They
felt he earned this promotion, but it's like, well, like, realistically,
would you even better serve with just a full year
in Triple A where they said, look, you know, yeah,
now you want to play appearance in Triple A, like
you look great, but we really want to see a
(42:27):
full year of you down there. You're twenty years old,
and you know, from the player's standpoint, it's it's always
the idea of like, well, you know, my service time,
like I want this, I want that, I get all that,
and but just he clearly wasn't ready, and I'm still
not really convinced, even with him going back to Triple
A and producing, I'm just still not really convinced that
(42:49):
he's is ready.
Speaker 2 (42:51):
Yeah, no, I I.
Speaker 1 (42:54):
Agree, But it was more again, it was more of
a like deeply shallowing point. I think in this tier
is where you're deeply guys you know, Donovan Keith kind
of fit that, and then your shallow league. It's it's
really players like gelf and Holliday where it's like, sure,
I'll roll the dice, and if I roll them and
it doesn't work, the free agent pool has the Brendan
(43:14):
Donovan for me to fall back on or whoever Donald's
going higher, but just the guy's been the one starch
here that we'll talk about or mentioned.
Speaker 2 (43:22):
That's yes, speaking of which we get to the one
start here.
Speaker 1 (43:28):
What a segue. Yeah, So for our newer listeners, what
we do here is I read off the names. We
don't really talk about them. We might talk a little
bit about them, but John and I both do a
I don't want to call it a sleeper pick. I
hate that term, kind of like a who do you like?
And we can go off the board, meaning you know,
(43:48):
if there's somebody who I see as a reserve or
way at the back, I'll, you know, I'll pick that player.
So the players here are Jonathan India, Christopher Morrell, Jake Croninworth,
Michael Massey, and Christian Campbell. I think you went first
last week, so I can go unless you have a
(44:10):
make that you really really like want.
Speaker 2 (44:12):
To, I could pivot if need be, So that's okay.
Speaker 1 (44:15):
So I actually have somebody here so I don't have
to struggle to find him, and it's Michael Massey. So
I think this is one of those weird situations where
you know, we talk about this a lot, like people
were honestly hyped about him and be overstating it. But
people were kind of into him and digging him last year,
at least offensively. And you know the rest of it
(44:38):
was there was kind of this like reluctance and he
actually improved like he had a solid year. Yes see
on basis nothing to write home about, but more power,
more average, and he's one of those players where you know,
he kind of does the thing his game is to do,
pulling the ball while hitting into the air as much
(45:00):
as possible. I think if he finds a playing time,
he could hit twenty twenty five home runs. And the
Royals already talking about getting him some reps in the outfield.
He's got, you know, a little speed. He stole one
base last year. I'm not saying he's going to steal twenty.
I think he's steal like five or six. I think
he's a sneaky little player in deeper leagues. I don't
want to sell him as more than that, but I
(45:22):
kind of like him as as my deep one star
player here.
Speaker 2 (45:28):
Yeah, I really was surprised when I looked looked up
his page that he had a two fifty nine average
last year, which I know is no, you know, it's
not set in the world on fire, but I think
I remember his twenty twenty three a little more so. Yeah,
I think my I guess my question is how the
Royals sort out there. They're playing time. I mean, they
(45:49):
have players that they do not need. I mean they're
they're entire I mean they're starting outfield right now is MJ. Melendez,
Kyle Isbel and Hunter Renfro, Like you do not need
any of those.
Speaker 1 (46:00):
Well, I think some of the problem is is that
like Renfro is the guy that probably they should just jettison,
and I think a different team, you know, given what
he's owed, and I don't know how it's balanced. It
looks like he's owned like seven point six and I
think a different team would eat it or you know,
trade him and eat some of it. But it's the Royals.
(46:21):
They're they're not going to do that. And I also
don't really see them like benching him, at least not
initially to go to the Royals roster. But yeah, I
do see what you're saying. Like the depth chart has
Jonathan India Listen as DH and Massy platuning at second
I don't see that happening, especially because I would think
Salvador Perez is going to DH more this year, and
Freddy for me and is going to catch more. So
(46:43):
it's not a clean situation for sure. And I could
see a boring scenario where MASSI only plays like nine
or hundred games and you're like, yeah, you know, might
might straight you know, push me the wrong way. For sure.
Speaker 2 (46:56):
I like that pick. I'm going to go down to
your late late round reserves and a player, this is
a profile I'm kind of a sucker for. I'm looking
at Spencer Horwitz of the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Speaker 1 (47:11):
Say Nolan Gorman, I don't think. I don't want to
talk about him for another year.
Speaker 2 (47:16):
At least, Yeah, in a non therapeutic context at least.
So I just really like the all around. Now this
is going back to kind of your boring, steady roster
glue kind of player. I like that he's eligible at
first and second. I like the on bass skills he's
(47:40):
he's just you know, I think you have a pretty
high average floor, not a ton of power, but in
full you know, with with a close to full run
of playing time, I think you could see fifteen to
twenty homers. I think it's just a very boring but safe.
And again I'm copiating with playing time, but he he
(48:02):
is penciled in at this at this point to be
the starting first baseman for the Pirates. So you know,
I nothing glamorous leaps off the page, but come like
July or August, you're really glad you have someone that
you can plug into corner and middle or middle endfield
who has a safe average floor and will you know,
(48:22):
produce moderate amounts of runs in RBI. So I think
Spencer is a solid pick.
Speaker 1 (48:29):
Yeah, I agree. And the thing I would add to
that is I did the Pirates. PNC has a reputation
as being a pitcher's park. It hasn't played that way recently,
Like it's not a big hitters park, but it trends
toward hitters. And I'm looking at as stackcast like that
the three year look back for lefties. And yeah, it's
a better venue for him than Rogers Center would have been.
(48:52):
And again, this is Spencer Horowitz. I don't want to
oversell it. I don't think you were either, John, but
you know, you could be looking in a full season,
you know, like fifty sixteen home runs, good batting average,
you know, study production. Yeah, and he's also got eligibility
at second and first, so yeah, I like I in
deep leagues that's kind of underrated too, like we know
(49:13):
from like running a team together, like it sounds goofy
and like shallower leagues, like, oh boy, I like for
us last year it was Ernie Clement too. It's like
we could use him the third It sounds dopey, but
I mean those guys are really matter, like on the margin.
So yeah, if you're he to me, he's a really
great reserve pick if you want to push him. And
(49:35):
I think his ADP is actually little bit higher so
you would have to push him. But yeah, he's going
at three oh seven, and I think that's okay if
you want to push him a little bit and see
him in a little more sunnier way than I do.
You know, I think it's funny if I were going
to make the Devil's Advocate argument about him, it'd probably
be kind of similar to what you were saying about
the Royals. It's just this team on the Pirates where
(49:58):
it's kind of kind of this jumbled well they're talking
about Andy Rodriguez potentially at first base, and you know,
Horowitz already looks like he might be aptun I don't
really trust Billy Cook to be, you know, stealing a
bathroom Horwitz, but just could be all these situations where
it's not as clean a look for him. But well
we'll see. And again, yes, this is a lay pick.
Speaker 2 (50:19):
It's a lay pick, and that you know. And again
the caveat was is is playing time like it is
for Massy, But it's just someone you know, Like I said,
I like this profile because I think the floor is
pretty high, and that's exactly what I was thinking when
I was looking over these. You know, the sort of
bottom of your list is Wow, that's a player that
(50:41):
you know, would be really nice to have had in
main event when you're trying to sort of play the
matchups for each half week, and this is a player
that you you know, you sort of he finds his
way into the lineup.
Speaker 1 (50:54):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (50:54):
Maybe maybe it really is that first and second eligibility
that's kind of tipping me for him. So enough on
Spencer Warwoods.
Speaker 1 (51:03):
Yeah, so do we have any anything else before we may?
Speaker 2 (51:08):
We should get out of here so you can go
get some rest.
Speaker 1 (51:10):
Oh, thank you, thank you, once again for listening to
(51:37):
episode three twenty three of Flags Fly Forever, a Baseball
Perspectives fantasy baseball podcast. Don't Forget. We've been talking about
second Basement, and Second Basement is what you'll be able
to read about next week at Baseball Perspectives. If you
are a subscriber, I do recommend subscribing. We really have
some of the most best and most comprehensive fantasy baseball
(52:01):
coverage there is. Timothy Jackson State of the Position articles
are great, CHROs Marcano and Nathan Grimm's Deep League reports
are awesome. We have our targeted avoid pieces, and as
John remembered to Plug last week that I didn't don't
forget about the Baseball Perspectives Annual. Just a wonderful book
to get whether you are a fantasy fan or a
(52:22):
baseball fan. John, do you have anything to add?
Speaker 2 (52:25):
I do not. Thank you for listening.
Speaker 1 (52:27):
Everyone, yep. For Mike Gel, John Heglin, thank you very much.
We'll be back next week to talk about third Basement corner.
Speaker 2 (52:39):
I'm sorry, that's okay.
Speaker 1 (52:40):
I thought about doing something similar, so you and.
Speaker 2 (52:42):
I are very much
Speaker 1 (53:00):
The m
Welcome to episode three twenty three of Flags Fly Forever,
a Baseball Prospectus Fantasy baseball podcast. I'm Mike Chanella and
over there on the other side of the proverbial glasses,
John Haguins.
Speaker 2 (00:40):
Help you out. Uh hey, Mike, I just cracked my
I just cracked my third non alcoholic beer the night.
So are you need a party?
Speaker 1 (00:52):
Are you not drinking for a reason? Or well, it's
out if you want to, we can talk about it later.
Speaker 2 (00:59):
So no, no, no, this will be brief. I think I
mentioned to you, but my wife is doing a thing
called Whole thirty some of you listeners may know about
for various health and lifestyle reasons. And while I am
not one hundred faithful to the plan, I am in
spirit trying to to be a good a good partner
(01:24):
and participate and so with that comes virtually no drinking.
Speaker 1 (01:30):
So yeah, I'm hitting.
Speaker 2 (01:32):
A non alcoholic sauce pretty hard tonight.
Speaker 1 (01:35):
Yeah. I actually haven't been drinking since the New Year.
And it's not because of a resolution. I'm not really
a resolutions person. It's because I'm training for half marathon
and I decided that. Yeah, I decided to stop drinking
until it's over. Of course, as John knows, I caught
a nasty like like flu earlier this week. I'm still
(01:55):
recovering and probably here a little bit my voice. So
we're gonna probably try to zip right through this, you know,
rather than continue pleasantly talking to each other as we
like to do. So let's uh, let's get started. John,
do you want to introduce the premise for our hopefully
new listeners or shall I?
Speaker 2 (02:13):
Sure well, I will introduce and you can fill in
if I miss anything. We base our podcast on Mike's
Tears article, which will come out next Tuesday, I believes,
and Mike ranks the players out of position in terms
(02:33):
of their tiers, starting with the five star tier, and
you can fill in the I always forget the rounds.
A five stars is the first two rounds.
Speaker 1 (02:43):
Five stars one to two, four stars three to six.
You go three stars seven to thirteen, two stars fourteen
to nineteen. By the way, the fifteen team leagues is
like deeper formats, and then yeah, the one star is
like kind of through round like twenty three. And if
there are fewer than thirty players at a position that
are like do not fit the bill, and our reserve picks,
(03:04):
which can happen even in a deep league. We have
a zero star tier.
Speaker 2 (03:09):
Zero stars, What a way to live. Yeah, so let's
let's nip through the five starsier. There is no five
stars here.
Speaker 1 (03:17):
Yeah, that was that was easy. Well, I mean, you know,
I think you'll see this in my article on Tuesday.
You know, Mookie Betts, we missed you. It was a
nice year and now you're gone. So that's kind of
a theme or a little sneak preview, is that, you know,
due to shifting and there's always shifting of people in
and out of the position, that's a pretty big loss.
And one of the names in the four stars here,
(03:38):
and we'll get to this shortly, could be in the
five stars. Heer, he's kind of run on the border
and cran ADP. But I decided to put him in
the four stars here, and there's no objections to that.
So three names in the four starsier. So this is
again rounds three to six according to my rankings, Ketl Marte,
Joseell Tuo by Ozzie Albi's and and again based off
(03:58):
of ADP. This is not on a particularly controversial list.
Marte is clearly ahead all two of ban Albi's have
kind of been bouncing back and forth with a pick
or two of each other. So yeah, this is in
terms of my ranking. I didn't do this deliberately. I
tend to rank before I look at ADP. This is
kind of a owner.
Speaker 2 (04:19):
It's interesting that we have two older players at the
top of the position. And is this the first time
that in recent memory when there hasn't been a five
star at second base? I know it frequently happens a catcher,
as we discussed last week, but is it it's if
(04:42):
my memory serves, it's pretty uncommon that there's not even
one five star player.
Speaker 1 (04:46):
Well, it's uncommon, but probably not as uncommon as say
like third or actually almost any other in field position.
I feel like the top and second is typically a
little bit better, I believe, And I have to go
back and look, and I'm not going to do that
because that is not good, you know content. But I
do believe that it's something that's happened before. But you
(05:09):
are right, like it hasn't happened a lot, and you
know some of it too, is like there have been
years for example where you know, I mentioned Mookie Bets,
Trey Turner was at second base one year and he was,
you know, in the five star tier, and you know
that kind of stuff happens. Yeah, So twenty twenty three,
there were no five star there were no five star
second Basement. And then I believe in twenty twenty two,
(05:32):
and I'm very disappointed myself because I made the same
joke about Trey Turner two years ago that I was
going to make about Mookie Betts. And now I feel
a little sheepish about that. So you might not see
it in Tuesday's edition. I believe it was just Trey Turner.
So actually Ozi Albi's was up there too. So to
(05:52):
your point, yes, it's rare, but it happens, and I
think some of it is like in real life second base.
I don't want to denerate the position, but it's sort
of in terms of the offensive profile at least the
defense matters more. But unlike shortstop, it's not necessarily where
your superstar sits. Again, I'm there are players historically like
(06:15):
Joe Morgan, like Craig Vigio, like Jase Sutley. I'm not
going to rattle through all of them. I'm not saying
this is always true. I'm just saying that's kind of
where we're we've been at the last few years.
Speaker 2 (06:24):
So to talk about could tell Marte it's it's I
think it is worth talking about the players in this
tier for a minute because I think my instinct when
I look at Marte going this high is to fade
it a little bit because of you know, it's it's
a standout, I mean, close to a career year, if
(06:48):
not a career year for Marte. But you know, when
I look under the hood a little bit, you know,
everything all the bad of ball metrics, and this is
a position, as we'll talk about, where you have a
lot of players who just don't hit the ball hard.
But Marte was you know, his battle ball metrics are great.
(07:11):
You know, there's really nothing in the profile to get
concerned about. And he is only thirty one, you know,
he's been around a while, so he might seem older.
So are you do you feel like people are overpaying
for last year or do you feel like because the
position levels off pretty quickly, that getting you know, the
(07:33):
top at the position is actually worth a little more.
Speaker 1 (07:37):
It's probably more of the second thing that because the
position levels off, there's some premium to getting Marte there,
like I'm with you, I have him ranked like a
little lower than his current eighty piece. Let's see the
document I pulled, and hopefully we pulled the same thing,
so we're not slightly off like we've been. I'm showing
him at twenty ninth overall, so right, ye, toward the
(07:58):
back end of the second round, and I think I
have him like thirty eighth, which sounds like a lot, right,
but really, you know, all that means I might have
some pictures in there, I might have one or two
players I've got a preference for over over the market.
It's not a big difference. So if you want, if
you want to take Marte to he had a second
I don't even push him a little bit. That's fine.
(08:19):
I don't really think there's an argument against him. For me.
It's more like, well, I want him to come much
closer to what he does last year to kind of
make me pull the trigger on this pick. And I
see twenty twenty three as the more likely outcome, which
is good. I'm not like, I don't think you to
be unless he gets hurting it. I don't thk to
be too disappointed in Marte. I just don't necessarily see
(08:42):
him as someone where it's like I'd be jazzed to
make this pick.
Speaker 2 (08:46):
Yeah, And I think also when you're talking about second base,
you would be you know, taking your starter at the
position without a lot of steals. I mean, you know
seven last year projections have him at seven eight, so
high single digit steals. You know, that's that's not nothing.
But for the position, this is often a position where
(09:06):
you can find and you know, we will see a
lot of high steals guys in the in the lower tiers.
So so that's fine. I think that's that's enough. On
Marte al Tuove and all these are going very close
to each other. It's like, yeah, sixty four and sixty
five as as far as their adp ALTV go going
(09:31):
slightly ahead. I you know, I feel I feel like
I feel stronger about or better about picking Altuve. Here
there are some warning slight warning signs with Altu me
like the power in terms of not necessarily in terms
of the home runs, but some of the batter ball
(09:52):
numbers have declined a little bit, and he is what
like thirty four, so I feel you could see a
bit of a clin but I don't think he's going
to fall off because he's you know, he's got so
he's so good batsball and he still has speed. So
I'm actually okay with al two A at this at
(10:12):
this price point.
Speaker 1 (10:13):
And I mean not to you know, make this the
most boring podcast ever, but I agree with you, and
I actually prefer all to Bay to Albi's by quite
a bit, which prices more about Albi's and we can
you know, certainly I guess get into that. Yeah, but
you know what I was looking for about al Tuo
Bay because I this is at my piece, like he's
(10:35):
somebody who for years, like like he knows how to
use his home park and then you can, you know,
leave the if you want to make your trash can joke,
go ahead, but you know, well beyond that, like he's
somebody who has constantly exceeded stack cast like he has
constantly and I'm actually trying to pull up like what
the averages like year over year like and you know
(10:56):
it excludes the pandemic. But yeah, it's just the thing
I get it, Like he's getting into that point of
the age curve where I'm a little uncomfortable and I
think you run a risk of drafting like a fifteen
to fifteen season here with a two eighty average, which
would be like, well, that's okay, but you know, why
did I spend you know, this pick here to get that?
(11:16):
But I think there's another year in the tank, Like
I feel like, I feel that there's one more year
of a jose L Tube where I'm like, okay, I
believe enough in him, you know, to pull that off.
And yeah, what it is is, you know, excluding twenty
twenty this is his career, he's outpaced expected batting average
by like, you know, thirty seven points and expected slugging
(11:38):
by fifty eight. It doesn't mean it's repeatable, but I
think just looking at his projections, particularly projection going off
a bat a ball metrics is is a little bit lazy.
Speaker 2 (11:48):
Yeah, it's it's true. And you know, if you look
at the spray chart, I mean you do see like
a much more pull heavy profile in twenty twenty four
than in previous years. But you know, that's it's good
that he plays in Houston, is all I will say.
That's that And it's the same thing. It's the same
reason when we get to third base, you know, depending
(12:09):
on if we know where Alex Bragman's gonna go you
know that that might change his profile drastically. So I
do want to hear a little bit about all these
I know we won't talk about every single player, but
I am curious about why. I have my own reasons,
but I'm curious about what your coolness toward the Albi's is.
Speaker 1 (12:30):
I mean, statistically speaking, he has he said, one well
above average year in the last five and yes, when
it was a pandemic year, so you can throw that out.
So one in the last four. I mean, otherwise he's
had two seasons fore he's been hurt, and the numbers, like,
even if you parade them to a full season, have
been very you know, good, but not like tremendous. I
(12:53):
feel like the bet on him as ooh, it's an
even I'm sorry odd here he's gonna do great, and
it's like, well, okay, Like is that really what we're
we're betting on here? Honestly, I'd love to see him
stop switch hitting like he tried at the end of
the year because he was hurt, yes, and see what
would happen like that. That's a large part of his
problem too, Like for the most part, he does most
(13:15):
of his damage, you know, and on one side of
the plate, and it's it's not the side that you
you know typically I think last year was atypical, but
it's not the side of the plate you typically want
that from. So and he has so many at bats
and twenty twenty three is the example, like four five
or twenty two plate appearances as a left hander, one
(13:35):
thirty three as a right hander demolished, you know, left handers,
was okay against right handers. I wrote this about him
last year too, which is like, well, take the twenty
twenty three abbeys. I don't necessarily want to bet on
a guy hitting even in a small sample, you know,
having an ops over a thousand against lefties. It just
(13:57):
doesn't it doesn't feel like a bet. Like I'm not
completely denigrating all these there's a price i'd take him at.
He's just not somebody I want at this price point.
And it's some of the march I thing you talked
about too, which is will will he run? I mean maybe,
but coming off the injuries he's been coming off of,
I feel like eight to ten steals is a safer
(14:19):
bet than him popping up to the twenty he stole
in twenty twenty one, so at that point you need
like twenty five home runs and a good average at
this price, like it, it feels like it's asking a lot.
I don't think good line up, good context. I don't
feel like you're gonna be like all kinds of sad
at this pic, but it does feel like you could
do better later that second.
Speaker 2 (14:40):
Yeah, no, I agree, And I think my general take
on Alby's is that it's just very difficult too. I
don't feel good about a floor for him. I feel
like a lot, a lot could could go wrong, much
more so than than i'l twov. Should we move to
the three star.
Speaker 1 (14:59):
We should because there's a lot of names, and I'm.
Speaker 2 (15:01):
Sure there are a lot of names.
Speaker 1 (15:02):
I'm sure we will not, you know, I'm sure we
will not talk about every one of these players.
Speaker 2 (15:10):
Sorry to ours, I have I have detailed notes for everyone.
Speaker 1 (15:14):
Sure, I'll hang up and Okay, So the three star tiers,
so again, this is like the seventh to the thirteenth round.
This is in my order of preference. But again these
are tiers, so not exact. Matt McLain, Marcus Semion, Nico Horner,
Jordan Westburg, Luis Garcia, under Semenas, Luisa Riyes, Bryce Terang,
(15:36):
Sandra Bogart's labor Torres, Luis Renhifo, and Bryson stopped. So yeah,
that that's a big, big clump of players with lots
of different skills. Like there's there's some speed first players,
there's some power first players, there's players who do both.
Speaker 2 (15:54):
I have a question. I'm gonna start with a question
because we both have McLain fourth overall of the position.
Is it crazy to have a guy with just over
four hundred Major League played appearances and a miss fear
up this high.
Speaker 1 (16:15):
It might be. I will say, I don't like to
like waste spring training too much, but he is somebody
who you know, if he gets off to a slow start,
if he misses a couple of days or more than
a couple of days, I might move him down. I
think my bigger concern is like the multiple injuries and
that you know, to your point, he didn't play at
(16:36):
all last year, like not even in the minors, And
you know, a lot of what you're looking at, like
the projections to me look rosy because I think they're
just looking at twenty twenty three and kind of spinning
off of that minus a few steals and they're dropping
the average show. So I don't completely you know, say
the projections are just being rosy, but yeah, I I
(16:57):
could see a scenario where he's not nearly this good.
I think the reason to leave him here is the upside.
And I'm shooting in that park like we we've seen
that park like make you know, some hitters who are
less talented than the McLain can be like into some
pretty productive fantasy players.
Speaker 2 (17:14):
He's also kind of surrounded by players who are at
that sort of inflection point of their careers where you're
starting to see some decline. I mean, we mentioned al
Tuva not as drastic, but you know, Semon had a
very down year. Batty ball data doesn't look great. Xander Bogart's,
(17:38):
you know, is there, and so it's and there's you know,
we still have those players and you know, relatively high.
But this is feels like the one player who has
a lot of a lot of growth possibility here.
Speaker 1 (17:53):
So yeah, yeah, I mean I would I might add
Luis Garcia to that too, you know, if you're talking
about growth. But yeah, I I think McLean the case.
If you are talking about the growth pick here, McLain is,
if he's healthy is probably the biggest one. Although for
sure that that's the giant question. I don't I don't doubt,
and and my ranking is kind of neutral to ADP,
(18:14):
which means I probably won't get him in a lot
of places unless you know, he starts falling. I'm sure
i'd be okay with him. I'm not like who I
got to go get.
Speaker 2 (18:21):
Him going right around pick one hundred over the last
fifty draft champions. So yeah, that's I think that's that's fair.
In any given room, you're likely to have a mclin
booster anyway. Who do you want to talk about next?
There's probably at least two more players in this tier
I want to talk about.
Speaker 1 (18:42):
Let's talk about Bryce ter Rang because I have a
one of them. Based on our conversation earlier that you
you think I'm too low on him.
Speaker 2 (18:51):
No, I I not really. I mean I'm I'm I
think I'm slightly higher, but I you know, looking more
deeply into him, I might actually be tempted to move
him down. So, I mean, you pointed out the falloff
last year, and it was pretty it was pretty dramatic.
(19:12):
Of five sixty four ohps in the second half. You know,
he didn't run as much. Still twenty steals in the
second half, but we appear the power disappeared. Not that
it was a ton to begin with.
Speaker 1 (19:24):
Oh, but if you're getting eight to ten home runs
and those steals and a two sixty average. The weird
thing about this is I'm the steels guy. I'm usually
the one that's telling people, Hey, don't discount steels just
because you think you can get them, or there's so many,
like they're valuable, don't don't do that. And what I'm
saying here is like, well, this is sort of I
don't ever sell it, but this this is kind of
(19:45):
the old Malex Smith thing where it's like, if you're
taking a player like this in the top one fifty
and he doesn't like you know, he does nothing but run,
and you get an empty thirty steals in or twenty
five to thirty steals in today's context, I think you
blew this pick. That that's kind of my problem, Like
I I he might work and he might very well
(20:06):
be fine, and and heck if he if I'm wrong,
and he worked hard this winter and he comes to
spring training and looks there and he'd be a bargain.
But I look at somebody like, well, I could see
Caleb Durban if he makes a team stealing some of
the bats. I could see the Brewers. You know, they're
not really known for their patuons as much as some
other teams, but they have been willing to do that.
(20:26):
So if that happens. I look at Terang like, well,
you know his and I just want to check this
before I'm you know, talking out of like you know where,
like his defense is good, but it's not like super
special where it's like, oh my gosh, second base. So yeah,
I and that this is kind of it's more about
some of the players in this tier. Does he have
the most steals upside? Sure, I mean outside of Nico
(20:50):
Horner if if he's healthy, I don't think Day, which
is a giant if. But beyond that, it's like, well,
I don't see a lot else there. It'd almost rather
take home for thirty to thirty five steals from one
of these other names and avoid Terrang.
Speaker 2 (21:04):
I mean even more dramatically, like looking at I like,
what is the difference between Terrang and Michael Garcia. You know,
when it comes down to it. Like if you look
at terreng second half, you know, it's like like you say,
it's an empty steels play and you've you've got Garcia
in the next year. Well, the other thing out, well,
(21:26):
I was just.
Speaker 1 (21:26):
Gonna say this this is I don't want this is.
And yeah, you were not one of the Garcia Michael
Garcia people. But this is my argument against Garcia. Last
year people were like looking at him and getting excited
and you know, like kind of like looking at you know,
baty ball metrics, like like you know, like squinting to
see the bad battle ball Mextrom, like, look, he doesn't
hit the ball at hard and it steals and the
average is bad and a lot and go sideways like that.
(21:48):
That was the argument. And yes, if you can get
Tarrang just outside of the top two hundred, I think
that's great. He's just not going to go there.
Speaker 2 (21:56):
I think I think Warner is actually the more instructive
compare in here because Horner was his ADP was so
high last year I think largely because projections were drawing
on the previous season when he had what I forget
how many steals it was, what forty something.
Speaker 1 (22:13):
I think it was close to fifty. I think, oh,
you know, yeah, don't make me looktter.
Speaker 2 (22:18):
No, No, that's not relevant to the point. I mean,
the point I guess I want to make is about
how steels projections. I just don't trust them. And it's
not that I don't think Terrang isn't going to run
and I don't think you know that. It's not that
I think he's going to, you know, end up with
fifteen steals if he's healthy. It's just that I feel
(22:40):
like the range between like thirty and fifty is so fluid,
right that you you could be drafting someone.
Speaker 1 (22:49):
Who yeah, yeah, well I was going to say, I'm sorry.
I think the other difference too, is that like Horner
brings some average. This is the other piece too, which
is you you want to have If you're going to
take a speed player, you want something else, right, Like
you either want a player at the top lineup who's
(23:11):
going to score a ton of runs or I mean
ideally want both these things, but or you want batting average.
If you're not getting either of those things, like then
it's like, well, like what I'm what am I paying
for here? I'm paying for a lot of steels you know,
as we know, like you can pick up steals like
we did less Yere at different position we did less
You're in the main event with Victor Roeblist. You can
pick up steels in season. I mean it's not like easier.
(23:34):
You can't snap your fingers, but you can find them.
I just again, this is the draft class thing, like
taking terrang at the you know, I want to turn
this into that hate Brice Train podcast. He's a fine player,
but for fantasy, you know, taking him at the beginning
of the tenth round or the nine ten turn. I
just there's a lot of better ways I prefer to
use that pick.
Speaker 2 (23:54):
Yeah, I mean, you're you're resting everything on a pretty
flimsy steals projection and not a lot else. So yeah,
I mean I think we we actually agree, and I
probably will re examine my my terrang ranking. I'll take
a terrang test.
Speaker 1 (24:13):
I was wondering if you would make you better, like
hearing it than an attack, so well, really I.
Speaker 2 (24:22):
Thought I thought it would be the opposite. Anyway. Another
player I want to talk about is Jordan Westburg, who
is going as the fourth second basement off the board,
also as a third base eligibility inside the top one hundred.
I will just give my my quick piece on on Westburg,
(24:45):
who I drafted in a lot of places last year,
enjoyed his April. Uh he kind of rode that reputation
or that that publicity he got from a hot April.
And it's not like he collapsed, but things steadily went
down month by month, you know, whether it's him getting
figured out or you know, just that that April is
(25:05):
maybe an outlier. I think he's a good player. I
don't know that I think he's a top one hundred player.
I think he will you know, get you maybe twenty
ish homers. The steals or are not exceptional, but they'll
be you know, somewhere in the teams probably, And so
(25:26):
that's that's all very good. But I don't think the
average is going to be a you know, a game changer.
And I think he's he's he's You could get that
production a little bit later.
Speaker 1 (25:38):
Yeah, this tier, so second base and what we'll get
to this in the later tiers, Like there are a
number of players here who are better in real life
than fantasy like that that that's a theme for second base,
and I think in real life, like Jordan Westberg is
a very good player who could take a step up
(25:58):
to being like close to excellence. But yeah, I like
the projections. I'm kind of like, well, I see like
a twenty ten player and I'm not really even confident
in the ten, and it's kind of like, well, like
it all could work. The other thing too, is Baltimore.
It's not quite the same at other positions, but they
do have still have like young players on the rise,
(26:20):
like people coming up. I'm not saying they'll bench Westburg,
but I could see a scenario where he doesn't quite
play every day and you're maybe looking at one hundred
and twenty hundred and thirty games, you know, as opposed
to one hundred and fifty. It's just something just the
things with him where I think he's okay. It's another
price point thing. I see Semion and McClain going here.
(26:41):
I'd rather have. I mean a little cool on Semion,
but I think I'd rather have either of them over Westburg.
Speaker 2 (26:48):
Yeah, I definitely would. I mean in my own I
actually have him down. Where do I have him? I
can't can't find it now. Oh yeah, I have them
actually down after Luisa rise. But so that would be one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight.
(27:08):
I have I have them as my tenth second basement.
So I'm obviously way, I'm a little I've lived in
the market. Yeah, okay, anyone else in this tier. I
mean it's a lot of you can sort of see
the you know, the types like I see like Andre
Semenez and Bryce and Scott as kind of a you know,
(27:29):
doppelgangers in a lot of ways.
Speaker 1 (27:31):
I think I want to I want to ask like
a broad question churches. So there's a couple of players
in Westburg could fit this bill, but like Glabor Torres
is another one. Do you believe that you have to
get some steals, like particularly if you're drafting like like
early enough and particularly like the only player who really
doesn't have many steals attached to his profile potentially is
(27:53):
Kettle Marte, where it's like, well, okay, fine, like I'll
get six steals, but I get so much of everything
else that I don't really care, and I'll get my
steels elsewhere. With Glabor, and I'm a little warm on him,
warmer on him than the market. I think some of
it is the park he's moving too, But I also
think some of it is he pretty much stopped running
like like after stealing like four bases very early on,
(28:16):
And that's kind of the fear. I think the fear
is like, well, if I draft Labor, he doesn't run
at all. And he said, you know, even if he
hits twenty twenty five home runs, I'm just not getting
much and he really needs to maybe even do a
little bit more than that for him to be a
value or a par here.
Speaker 2 (28:33):
Yeah, I mean he's going after after pick two hundred, right, I.
Speaker 1 (28:37):
Have ranked higher than like, Yeah, the ADP would make
him a two story That's what I'm saying. I'm a
slightly more robust on him.
Speaker 2 (28:46):
I look at the names. I look at the names
ahead of him, and there there are like three speed
guys in terms of ADP, Nico Horner, Michael Garcia, and
Zach Geloff.
Speaker 1 (28:57):
And we'll get we'll get to them.
Speaker 2 (28:58):
We'll get to there. But I think I would rather
have whereas. I mean to answer your question, No, I
don't think you need steals from any position. You just
need steals in general. So it just you know, forces
you to in draft, you know, reassess and reallocate. But no,
if it's the value there obviously.
Speaker 1 (29:18):
Yeah, I also think like it's a thing where you know,
if early you drafted your don and I don't know,
like somebody else without steals, then sure you probably don't
want to, like draft too many guys like that, unless you're,
you know, in a standalone league where you can throw
a category because it'll cost you. But I think otherwise,
if you're just having a normal draft or like, okay,
(29:39):
like I seem to have some of this, I seem
to have some of that, I don't think taking a
player like this is particularly harmful. And before we move on,
I don't think we need to give the Luisa rise
batting average is good, he's undervalue speech. We get that
speech every year.
Speaker 2 (29:55):
I would just say to to you know, finish off.
The point about drafting steals is if you're getting to
the fourteenth round and you need steals from your second basement,
that I think you've you've not you know, you've made
some strategic errors prior to the fourteenth round, you know
what I mean.
Speaker 1 (30:13):
That's a fair that's a fair point. Although it's funny
because this is a point about and we can get
to this in a later Strategy podcast. But you know,
in drafts where a lot of like pitchers and people
like I have to have my two closers and I
have to have my you know, two catchers. That can't
happen like I. I've been listening to other podcasts where
(30:34):
there's a lot of ooh, I want to have two
catchers in the first twelve rounds, and oh I want
to have two closers in the first eight rounds. It's like, well,
I do too. Those players I can get later. Well,
I laugh, because you know, we're again, I'm playing the
short podcast. But you know, Alex Patton years ago one
of his books had something about like, you know, I
(30:54):
want this closer, and you know, I only want to
pay this much for which is you know, five dollars
under his value, and you have this closer who's eight
dollars three dollars of his value. We all get bargains.
It's like, well, that's just not the way it works.
Like you know, you're you're gonna pay the piper somewhere.
Speaker 2 (31:11):
Should we go to the two stars or is there
anything else?
Speaker 1 (31:14):
I don't. I don't think so unless there's somebody here
that you you know, yeah, we're okay. So two stars.
There's slightly fewer names, but it's still a thick tier
and I already have I want to say regrets, but
I think there's somebody here who I probably should move down.
So but let's see here. I always mix up the
(31:35):
low Lao things.
Speaker 2 (31:37):
This one's loud.
Speaker 1 (31:38):
I thought this one's loud. So Brandon Lao, Michael Garcia,
Colt Keith, David Hamilton, Tyro Estrada, Zach Geloff, Willie Castro,
Jackson Holliday, and Brendan Donovan, who was the only staff change.
I had him in the one star tier and it
was recommended I moved him up and I was like, yeah, sure.
Speaker 2 (32:01):
So the thing that that jumps out to me about
this tier kind of a mixed bag. I really wish
Brandon Loo was not on the Rays. Now. Maybe it's
good that he's on the Rays now. I forget. Is
it is it uh left handed hitters who get the
advantage in the in the Saint Petersburg Park.
Speaker 1 (32:23):
I believe it's I believe it's lefties.
Speaker 2 (32:24):
Yes, Okay, well good, But I wish that he was
not platooned. I wish they just plugged, plugged him in
every day. He among most of the players you know,
I just sort of sorted on stackcast by hard hit
and you know, uh, ex the velocity at the position,
because I noticed so many players in the three and
(32:45):
two star tier we're just you know, little just there there,
we're not hitting the ball hard. And other than Marte
Lao is the one who actually still hits the ball
very hard. But you know that he is. The raisedness
of him kind of puts a cap on you know.
(33:05):
I think a player who could be like a thirty
regularly hit thirty home runs a year, but yeah, that's
that's so, I guess loo here is still kind of
interesting to me.
Speaker 1 (33:17):
I've always liked him, I do think. And the reason
he's appropriately valued here and I don't have him higher
is simply because in most leagues, like outside of an
only league, you probably do need a bit of a
plan with him. There might be the odd week here
and there where he's you know, the Rays have a
six game week, They're facing three lefties and you're like,
(33:40):
I'm going to be missing a lot of playing time
because of the way the races. So that's kind of
like one problem with him. I mean, another problem with
him is that you know, I hate injury prone but
he's part of the reason he's missed time as he's
had his share of injuries he miss I'm using the
handy injury timeline tool at Baseball perspect this.
Speaker 2 (34:00):
It's a really good tool.
Speaker 1 (34:01):
It is really good. I would say that even if
I didn't, you know, work there and wasn't a shameless plugger.
But he missed forty one days last year with an
oblique strain right at the beginning of the year. He
missed like a month with back inflammation in twenty twenty three,
and at the end of the season. I mean, it's
nobody's fault, but fractured patella, you know, missed the end
(34:22):
of the season. So you know, I'm trying to see. Yeah,
twenty twenty two, you know, missed a bunch of time too,
two months because of his back. So between the injuries
of the platoon, I like him a lot. And he's
one of those players where if you can strategically get
him into your lineup at the right times, you have
some flexibility. It's great if you're in a league with
(34:42):
like doesn't have a lot of like reserver il flexibility.
He's a little bit tougher to roster.
Speaker 2 (34:50):
Agreed who else strikes your fancy in this in this tier? Well,
is this where you confess to your your a dying
enthusiast for Tyro Estrada.
Speaker 1 (35:01):
No, although it is funny because this is just a
typical we were talking. I have this for the show,
this typical early ADP versus you know, current ADP. At
one point, a Strata look like a bargain a lot
of people. I wonder why that is. It's like, well,
because he's not signed anywhere, and he you know, was
terrible last year, no offense giants, and now he's in cores.
And even if it doesn't work, you know, a scenario
(35:24):
where he like is kind of like Ryan McMahon with
little more steals like seems possible at second base. So
I do like Estrata at his price. I think that
by the time, if you're normal and not a sicco
and you're doing your draft, you know, listening to this
a month from now, I don't know how applicable this
will be because like Estrata now is at a three
(35:45):
twenty eight AAP, I think that's going to continue to climb,
and I would guess he's going to be somewhere into
like mid to high two hundreds. You know, as we
get closer to the season.
Speaker 2 (35:56):
Okay, enough about him?
Speaker 1 (35:59):
Who who you?
Speaker 2 (36:00):
Who else are you going to talk about?
Speaker 1 (36:02):
I mean the other guy? You know, there's a lot
of names here that I don't want to say they're generic,
but like someone like cold Keith is fine and I
see some upside and you know what's really interesting about Keith?
You know we're talking about Jordan Westburg is if he
gets a little better. I don't want to say he's Westburg,
but at the price point difference, you're like, huh, Like
I can kind of live with col Keith as my
middle infielder if he's gonna pop like fifteen home runs
(36:24):
and steal I don't know, eight to ten bases with
a decent average. I think there's a lot of players
like that. So those here to be careful not to
fall in love with the fifty home run ten steel profile.
It's it's a fantasy nerd thing to be excited about.
It's not a real thing to be excited about. The
guy I want to talk about is Zach Geloff. I
he scares me. I get it, I completely get it.
(36:47):
I get why he's exciting. Lots of power, lots of speed.
But if you look at the players you know in
their age twenty four season who struck out as much
as he did, it just isn't. There's like two successful players,
you know in the last you know, going back to
like the eighties and like Trevor Stories one and a
(37:10):
lot of that was Cores and he did actually improve too.
And the other one was Mark Reynolds. And Mark Reynolds
was a freak in terms of power, and I don't
think Geloff has that like level of power to him. So, yeah,
could he get better? Sure? Is there upside? Absolutely, And
if you're in a shallow league and you're playing in
(37:30):
a twelve team league, I don't have a problem with
taking him at the end to be like, you know what,
maybe gets hot for two weeks in Sacramento and it works,
and I'm a genius, And in that format, I take
him over a lot of these names. And this is
sort of the Brendan Donod thing, like Brendan Donald in
a deeper league, sure I want him over Gelloff because
it's a deeper league and he's going to play every day.
He's reliable and boring, and it'said fifteen to ten thing
(37:53):
I just talked about, Like, that's probably the upside with
lots of you know, playing time and lots of flexibility eventually.
But yeah, the deeper leads you and I plan, John,
I think I'll be avoiding go Off this year.
Speaker 2 (38:06):
So just to play a devil's advocate for a second,
because I generally agree with you, But I'm looking at
at Geloff's projection. So just looking at steamer twenty one homers,
sixty seven runs, RBI twenty three steals to twenty five average.
What category are you most worried about? Because I hear
(38:31):
everything you're saying. But if they run him out for
you know, one hundred and forty two hundred and fifty
games next year, you know he's other than the likelihood
of a stinky average, which you're you know, sort of
baked into the projection, although it could be a lot
lower than twenty five. You I don't see how you're
(38:52):
not going to get that kind of production. He's not
in the coliseum anymore. So tell me, tell me where
you're worried.
Speaker 1 (38:59):
In this streuction. It is the average. But the other
thing I look at is so the projection bakes in
like about a three percent strikeout drop and if he
can pull that off, if he can drop his strikeouts
even from like thirty four and a half or so
to thirty one, and you know raises walk rate a
little bit, Yeah, I see the path for improvement to him.
(39:20):
He just is one of the most free swingers that
like I've I shouldn't say that, want to be too hyperbolic.
He does walk somewhat, but he swings and misses a lot.
That's a better way to put it. And I think
that's my concern. My concern is that I know they
have no one else to play it. That's the argument
I've heard. But if he's striking out at a thirty
eight to forty thirty eight to forty percent clip, I
(39:43):
don't even think it's the average. I think at some
point the team is going to look at him and go,
he's twenty five. We need to fix this, We need
to make this right. You know, the guy that I'm
thinking about a little bit, who I fell in love with,
and maybe this is a cop, this is just my memory,
you know thinking about him is Kesena. I was so
(40:03):
excited about and he had to speed, but he had
the power. I loved him and I remember in twenty
twenty one, I was mad at people for who were like,
he's going to fail. I don't like this. I don't
like that. And it's like, well, lesson learned, Mike. You
you got really sucked into a player who struck out
thirty five percent of the time. And that's what I'm nearer.
You're a straight and I know the Brewers were competitive.
(40:25):
It's a different situation, but I think it's really tough
to justify. So let's say Kessenira is the floor. Let
let's say what he did in twenty twenty one, where
he you know, had two hundred played appearances, roughly hit
one sixty eight, got on base twenty five percent of
the time or twenty six cent of the time, struck
out almost forty percent of the time, with Brewers like, no,
we can't, we can't do this, Like at some point
(40:46):
you can't do it to the player no matter what
your situation is, and that that's what I'm working.
Speaker 2 (40:52):
Yeah, okay, yeah, I just I mean, I'm looking at
the names around him, and I guess eve In with
some you know there there's there's upside that to me,
is a lot more exciting than than cold Keith, you know,
just to take the name you have right in front
of him, even though it's clear Keith has a much
(41:12):
higher floor. He's well again, I did this is the
competent major league last year.
Speaker 1 (41:17):
This is definitely the shallow, like deeply thing sure like
in a shallower league. I want gell Off, I want you,
I even want Jackson Holiday. It's a similar thing where
it's like, Okay, I missed, I missed on Gelof. I
will take Jackson Holiday. I will cross my fingers. I
will hope he figures it out this year.
Speaker 2 (41:33):
See now, Holiday, I think it's the you know, just
from your your you know, outlining of the hero situation
because Holiday, because your ols are competitive, and they I
don't think they would let Holiday hit. I don't want
seventy for you know, for a month, so I Holiday
words worries me more than Geof.
Speaker 1 (41:54):
Also, the projections a lot less power, a lot less speed.
I mean, he's really young, and I think that's some
of the it's just this problem, like it's sort of
a larger baseball institutional problem that we're not going to
solve tonight.
Speaker 2 (42:06):
John.
Speaker 1 (42:07):
I'm sorry to tell you that, but like they kind
of I won't say they felt compelled to promote. They
felt he earned this promotion, but it's like, well, like, realistically,
would you even better serve with just a full year
in Triple A where they said, look, you know, yeah,
now you want to play appearance in Triple A, like
you look great, but we really want to see a
(42:27):
full year of you down there. You're twenty years old,
and you know, from the player's standpoint, it's it's always
the idea of like, well, you know, my service time,
like I want this, I want that, I get all that,
and but just he clearly wasn't ready, and I'm still
not really convinced, even with him going back to Triple
A and producing, I'm just still not really convinced that
(42:49):
he's is ready.
Speaker 2 (42:51):
Yeah, no, I I.
Speaker 1 (42:54):
Agree, But it was more again, it was more of
a like deeply shallowing point. I think in this tier
is where you're deeply guys you know, Donovan Keith kind
of fit that, and then your shallow league. It's it's
really players like gelf and Holliday where it's like, sure,
I'll roll the dice, and if I roll them and
it doesn't work, the free agent pool has the Brendan
(43:14):
Donovan for me to fall back on or whoever Donald's
going higher, but just the guy's been the one starch
here that we'll talk about or mentioned.
Speaker 2 (43:22):
That's yes, speaking of which we get to the one
start here.
Speaker 1 (43:28):
What a segue. Yeah, So for our newer listeners, what
we do here is I read off the names. We
don't really talk about them. We might talk a little
bit about them, but John and I both do a
I don't want to call it a sleeper pick. I
hate that term, kind of like a who do you like?
And we can go off the board, meaning you know,
(43:48):
if there's somebody who I see as a reserve or
way at the back, I'll, you know, I'll pick that player.
So the players here are Jonathan India, Christopher Morrell, Jake Croninworth,
Michael Massey, and Christian Campbell. I think you went first
last week, so I can go unless you have a
(44:10):
make that you really really like want.
Speaker 2 (44:12):
To, I could pivot if need be, So that's okay.
Speaker 1 (44:15):
So I actually have somebody here so I don't have
to struggle to find him, and it's Michael Massey. So
I think this is one of those weird situations where
you know, we talk about this a lot, like people
were honestly hyped about him and be overstating it. But
people were kind of into him and digging him last year,
at least offensively. And you know the rest of it
(44:38):
was there was kind of this like reluctance and he
actually improved like he had a solid year. Yes see
on basis nothing to write home about, but more power,
more average, and he's one of those players where you know,
he kind of does the thing his game is to do,
pulling the ball while hitting into the air as much
(45:00):
as possible. I think if he finds a playing time,
he could hit twenty twenty five home runs. And the
Royals already talking about getting him some reps in the outfield.
He's got, you know, a little speed. He stole one
base last year. I'm not saying he's going to steal twenty.
I think he's steal like five or six. I think
he's a sneaky little player in deeper leagues. I don't
want to sell him as more than that, but I
(45:22):
kind of like him as as my deep one star
player here.
Speaker 2 (45:28):
Yeah, I really was surprised when I looked looked up
his page that he had a two fifty nine average
last year, which I know is no, you know, it's
not set in the world on fire, but I think
I remember his twenty twenty three a little more so. Yeah,
I think my I guess my question is how the
Royals sort out there. They're playing time. I mean, they
(45:49):
have players that they do not need. I mean they're
they're entire I mean they're starting outfield right now is MJ. Melendez,
Kyle Isbel and Hunter Renfro, Like you do not need
any of those.
Speaker 1 (46:00):
Well, I think some of the problem is is that
like Renfro is the guy that probably they should just jettison,
and I think a different team, you know, given what
he's owed, and I don't know how it's balanced. It
looks like he's owned like seven point six and I
think a different team would eat it or you know,
trade him and eat some of it. But it's the Royals.
(46:21):
They're they're not going to do that. And I also
don't really see them like benching him, at least not
initially to go to the Royals roster. But yeah, I
do see what you're saying. Like the depth chart has
Jonathan India Listen as DH and Massy platuning at second
I don't see that happening, especially because I would think
Salvador Perez is going to DH more this year, and
Freddy for me and is going to catch more. So
(46:43):
it's not a clean situation for sure. And I could
see a boring scenario where MASSI only plays like nine
or hundred games and you're like, yeah, you know, might
might straight you know, push me the wrong way. For sure.
Speaker 2 (46:56):
I like that pick. I'm going to go down to
your late late round reserves and a player, this is
a profile I'm kind of a sucker for. I'm looking
at Spencer Horwitz of the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Speaker 1 (47:11):
Say Nolan Gorman, I don't think. I don't want to
talk about him for another year.
Speaker 2 (47:16):
At least, Yeah, in a non therapeutic context at least.
So I just really like the all around. Now this
is going back to kind of your boring, steady roster
glue kind of player. I like that he's eligible at
first and second. I like the on bass skills he's
(47:40):
he's just you know, I think you have a pretty
high average floor, not a ton of power, but in
full you know, with with a close to full run
of playing time, I think you could see fifteen to
twenty homers. I think it's just a very boring but safe.
And again I'm copiating with playing time, but he he
(48:02):
is penciled in at this at this point to be
the starting first baseman for the Pirates. So you know,
I nothing glamorous leaps off the page, but come like
July or August, you're really glad you have someone that
you can plug into corner and middle or middle endfield
who has a safe average floor and will you know,
(48:22):
produce moderate amounts of runs in RBI. So I think
Spencer is a solid pick.
Speaker 1 (48:29):
Yeah, I agree. And the thing I would add to
that is I did the Pirates. PNC has a reputation
as being a pitcher's park. It hasn't played that way recently,
Like it's not a big hitters park, but it trends
toward hitters. And I'm looking at as stackcast like that
the three year look back for lefties. And yeah, it's
a better venue for him than Rogers Center would have been.
(48:52):
And again, this is Spencer Horowitz. I don't want to
oversell it. I don't think you were either, John, but
you know, you could be looking in a full season,
you know, like fifty sixteen home runs, good batting average,
you know, study production. Yeah, and he's also got eligibility
at second and first, so yeah, I like I in
deep leagues that's kind of underrated too, like we know
(49:13):
from like running a team together, like it sounds goofy
and like shallower leagues, like, oh boy, I like for
us last year it was Ernie Clement too. It's like
we could use him the third It sounds dopey, but
I mean those guys are really matter, like on the margin.
So yeah, if you're he to me, he's a really
great reserve pick if you want to push him. And
(49:35):
I think his ADP is actually little bit higher so
you would have to push him. But yeah, he's going
at three oh seven, and I think that's okay if
you want to push him a little bit and see
him in a little more sunnier way than I do.
You know, I think it's funny if I were going
to make the Devil's Advocate argument about him, it'd probably
be kind of similar to what you were saying about
the Royals. It's just this team on the Pirates where
(49:58):
it's kind of kind of this jumbled well they're talking
about Andy Rodriguez potentially at first base, and you know,
Horowitz already looks like he might be aptun I don't
really trust Billy Cook to be, you know, stealing a
bathroom Horwitz, but just could be all these situations where
it's not as clean a look for him. But well
we'll see. And again, yes, this is a lay pick.
Speaker 2 (50:19):
It's a lay pick, and that you know. And again
the caveat was is is playing time like it is
for Massy, But it's just someone you know, Like I said,
I like this profile because I think the floor is
pretty high, and that's exactly what I was thinking when
I was looking over these. You know, the sort of
bottom of your list is Wow, that's a player that
(50:41):
you know, would be really nice to have had in
main event when you're trying to sort of play the
matchups for each half week, and this is a player
that you you know, you sort of he finds his
way into the lineup.
Speaker 1 (50:54):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (50:54):
Maybe maybe it really is that first and second eligibility
that's kind of tipping me for him. So enough on
Spencer Warwoods.
Speaker 1 (51:03):
Yeah, so do we have any anything else before we may?
Speaker 2 (51:08):
We should get out of here so you can go
get some rest.
Speaker 1 (51:10):
Oh, thank you, thank you, once again for listening to
(51:37):
episode three twenty three of Flags Fly Forever, a Baseball
Perspectives fantasy baseball podcast. Don't Forget. We've been talking about
second Basement, and Second Basement is what you'll be able
to read about next week at Baseball Perspectives. If you
are a subscriber, I do recommend subscribing. We really have
some of the most best and most comprehensive fantasy baseball
(52:01):
coverage there is. Timothy Jackson State of the Position articles
are great, CHROs Marcano and Nathan Grimm's Deep League reports
are awesome. We have our targeted avoid pieces, and as
John remembered to Plug last week that I didn't don't
forget about the Baseball Perspectives Annual. Just a wonderful book
to get whether you are a fantasy fan or a
(52:22):
baseball fan. John, do you have anything to add?
Speaker 2 (52:25):
I do not. Thank you for listening.
Speaker 1 (52:27):
Everyone, yep. For Mike Gel, John Heglin, thank you very much.
We'll be back next week to talk about third Basement corner.
Speaker 2 (52:39):
I'm sorry, that's okay.
Speaker 1 (52:40):
I thought about doing something similar, so you and.
Speaker 2 (52:42):
I are very much
Speaker 1 (53:00):
The m
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