January 31, 2025 • 56 mins
Like a fresh-baked pizza left in the snow, the corner known as third base starts pretty hot but cools down quickly. Do you like cold pizza? Then stick around to hear why we're concerned about Rafael Devers and Royce Lewis, and we're not buying any Nolan Arenado bounceback hype. Mike convinces Jon that Mark Vientos is for real and Jon (maybe) persuades mike about the underrated virtues of Alec Bohm. Jon makes a bold prediction about which Jung brother will be better in 2025 (hint: do you think we'd tease it if it were Josh?).
Flags Fly Forever is a Baseball Prospectus podcast. For more fantasy baseball information, visit baseballprospectus.com and click on "Fantasy."
You can find Flags Fly Forever on Bluesky (@flagsflyforever.bsky.social). The hosts of Flags Fly Forever are Mike Gianella(@mikegianella.bsky.social) and Jon Hegglund(@jonhegglund.bsky.social). The producer of Flags Fly Forever is Jon Hegglund.
Special thanks to the awesome and generous Petite League for permission to use their track "Mets" for the intro and break music. Find their sweet lo-fi indie-pop sounds at petiteleague.com.
Flags Fly Forever is a Baseball Prospectus podcast. For more fantasy baseball information, visit baseballprospectus.com and click on "Fantasy."
You can find Flags Fly Forever on Bluesky (@flagsflyforever.bsky.social). The hosts of Flags Fly Forever are Mike Gianella(@mikegianella.bsky.social) and Jon Hegglund(@jonhegglund.bsky.social). The producer of Flags Fly Forever is Jon Hegglund.
Special thanks to the awesome and generous Petite League for permission to use their track "Mets" for the intro and break music. Find their sweet lo-fi indie-pop sounds at petiteleague.com.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:25):
Welcome to episode three twenty four of Flags Live Forever,
a Baseball Perspectives fantasy baseball podcast. I am the much
healthier Mike Chanella and with me is John Hanklin. John,
how you doing?
Speaker 2 (00:38):
I remain moderately healthy. It's been one of those weeks
where you know the meme from thirty Rock about oh
what a week and Lemon It's Wednesday.
Speaker 1 (00:50):
Yeah, twenty twenty five has been like that, where you know,
it's like Lemon, it's January twenty ninth. Yeah, that's really
what this year feels like. But we're here and hopefully
to you know, acknowledge that we feel you, but also
hopefully that this next hour or so can't be a
little escape asn't diversion. Yeah, as we talk about third base,
(01:14):
so I you know, before we start, I think third base,
you know, just everybody know as usual if you've never listened,
which I doubt there are many people like that at
this point, just the whole series. But we mirror the
Baseball Perspectus tier rankings that I do along with the staff,
and it's a five star system with and we'll get
(01:35):
into this in the podcast, but five stars is like
the first two rounds cream and the crop four stars
is like rounds three through six, close to elite three stars,
about round seven to thirteen, four stars, rounds fourteen to nineteen,
and then down to the bottom there's a letter below
this is like the one star, which is kind of
the really late active rounds and a fifteenth teamer. So
(01:57):
that's what we're doing. And yeah, they're basically just kind
of interesting to me because I feel like there's some years,
a lot of years where I look at it, I'm like, boy,
this this is a really like weak position. But between
the names of the top and some promising names near
the top, I feel it's it's more interesting than it's
been in years. So John, should we just get right
(02:17):
into it.
Speaker 2 (02:18):
Let's get right into it. We actually have some five
star players in this episode. So who are those those
three five star players, Mike?
Speaker 1 (02:27):
They are Jose Ramirez, Jazz Chisholm, and Austin Riley. And
I will say that, you know, in terms of ADP,
I think Ramirez into a lesser greed. Chisholm are pretty
clear cut. Riley's right on the cusp. Like, depending on
how you're doing your ranks, he could be like four
or five star, and you know, I kind of interestingly
I put him in the five star. I thought there'd
(02:49):
be some debate and there was none. The one player
there was internal debate with the staff on was was Chisholm.
Speaker 2 (02:57):
Yeah, is there anything you say about Jose Ramirez? I mean,
pretty much a career here last year. He's thirty two,
but there's really no indication of a drop off, So
we feel pretty pretty okay with Ramira.
Speaker 1 (03:10):
Yeah, and really all I can say about him, you know,
it doesn't really crack that top three of Otani Witten judge.
You know, he's going fifth overall. If you want to
take him forth, I think that's okay. If you don't
drop back to six, I think that's okay. But yeah,
he's There's not much you can really say about him.
You can maybe quibble about the team context with the Guardians,
but yeah, he's a solid pick there. I have no arguments.
(03:36):
You know. What I would say is that the other player,
you know, right behind him, jests Chisholm is sort of
the risky version of Ramirez, right, Like he could be
like Ramirez with a weaker average, I would say, but
there's a reason he's going about twenty picks later.
Speaker 2 (03:52):
Yeah, and I think really the only question with with
Chisholm is is health, because you know, when looking at
his career stat line, I mentioned this to you, but
I sort of thought of him as a little more
volatile when it comes to average, but he is actually
hit between two forty eight and two fifty six and
his four I don't want to say full years because
(04:14):
some of them were partial, but a pretty consistent average.
And you know, it's not a great average. It's likely
to be lower than Jose Ramirez the average, but I
don't think there's a real risk of him of the
bottom falling out, and especially like you see last year,
he cut the strikeouts a fair bit, the steals, you know,
(04:36):
ticked up a bit. I am very bullish on Chisholm
for this year. I mean, you know, if you begin
with the premise that he's going to play one hundred
and forty t one hundred and fifty games, I don't
really think you have a lot of worries about the production.
Speaker 1 (04:53):
Yeah. Well, again, I think that's the issue. You know,
there's some talk that eventually he's going to need surgery,
and it's a question of when and not if. It's
kind of similar to the you know I heard this
on Rates and Barrels earlier today and as an older podcast,
but kind of similar Trevor's story injury, where it's like, well,
you know, it seems likely he's going to need that
(05:14):
work down the road. Probably won't affect him this year,
but will affect him at some point. I'm I'm ahead
of the market daunchism too, like not way ahead, Like
I wouldn't take him in the first round, but I
think I have him earlier in the second round. And yeah,
that's a large part of it. Yankee Stadium helps, the
context help keeps him getting out of Florida, like really helps.
(05:36):
There's just a lot here for me to like where
i'd be comfortable with him in the second round, and really,
you know risk or no. I like him better, you know,
if you look at the round there and some of
the players going around him, Like I like him better
than Freddy Freeman, for example, Like Freddie Freeman is safer,
I suppose, but he's also a lot older and it
feels like the ceiling's lower. I like him better than
(05:58):
Jackson Merrill, who great rookie year, hasn't done it more
than you know, in one season. That's kind of where
I'm at with Chisholm Is. I just like him. I
think i'd prefer him over Contrera's over William Contreras is
going two picks ahead of him, just because I don't
really like taking a catcher in the second round. So
that's kind of my thing chism is that I'm not like, yeah,
(06:18):
I have to have him, Yeah, I'm going to take him,
you know at the beginning of the second round. Just
more of a preference thing.
Speaker 2 (06:26):
Yeah, I think that's that's just fine with Riley. I
feel like the market is I haven't seen the movement
in his ADP, but I have a feeling it's going
to climb a bit when people realize that, you know,
he was he was really from June until he was hurt,
(06:49):
he was kind of back to being classic Austin Riley.
He just had a couple of bad months, but from
June until he got hurt. I think around the end
of August maybe he had an eight seventy years he
the power was back, and I think, you you know,
I don't I don't worry about a drop in in performance.
(07:09):
I think he demonstrated that the skills are all still there.
Speaker 1 (07:13):
Yeah, you know, it's funny. There's a lot of there's
a lot of players on Atlanta that I'm bearishan, and
you know, i'd say Olson. You know, we've Matt Olson.
We've talked about him at length. We don't need to
do that again, Nazzie Albi's you know, Ronald Cooney is
the black box. But Michael Harris, I'm I get it,
(07:33):
like I get where the ceiling is. But I'm not
that excited about him, you know, in redraft. But Riley
is someone I have a lot of confidence in and
bouncing back to, like, you know, maybe not all the
way back to what he had in twenty twenty three,
but yeah, if he hits like thirty or thirty five
home runs with a good batting average and you know,
lots of runs runs about it in You're talking about
a four category player in a position that doesn't have
(07:54):
a ton of depth. So yeah, I'm Riley someone in
the Chisholm. I have a little bit have him a
little bit ahead of his ADP, which means depending on
where I'm drafting and depending on what the room is like,
I could see winding up with Riley in a couple
of places.
Speaker 2 (08:08):
Yeah, and you know, it's still a good lineup that
he's in. I mean a few players had down years
or were heard and you know, once Secunia comes back,
it's a strong lineup. It's a good, good context, good park.
Speaker 1 (08:20):
I like the Profile edition.
Speaker 2 (08:22):
Yeah, the Profile Edition is great.
Speaker 1 (08:24):
I think Murphy could bounce back. I mean really, really,
the only hole lineup was Orlando or Cy and he's
a nine hitter. It's it's a strong lineup for sure.
Speaker 2 (08:32):
Pretty boring five starsier then so four star tier two
players players.
Speaker 1 (08:38):
I think this is a little more interesting. Yeah, so
it is. There's Raphael Devers and Manny Machado, and maybe
we should talk about Devers last because I have a
feeling you and I probably mostly a grand Machado and
he's sort of settled into being like a boring player,
even even though he's kind of getting on the older side,
their older itch side.
Speaker 2 (09:00):
I just I just think with Machado that well, personally,
I don't know if you feel this way, but I
basically feel the same about Machado going into this year
as I did going into last year, except he's like,
you know, going thirty to around what thirty is twenty
five to thirty picks higher than he was during this
(09:22):
time last year. So I like Machado just fine, but
there's really no no longer a discount, So I think
if he falls, it's a great pick, but I'm not
reaching for Machado anymore.
Speaker 1 (09:35):
Yes, it's twenty three picks higher, and yeah, that's exactly it,
which is a great example of what I've been talking
about this year, which is I prefer players like this
to buy him on the dip. I would rather not
get him here. I feel like, if you're drafting him here,
you pretty much need him to get to the high
end of the stolen bases. He's not really at least
(09:58):
the last couple years, hasn't really been a big average guy.
I kind of buy the two seventy or so batting
average projection. There's nothing wrong with getting him here. Like,
if you get him at this price, I don't think
you're gonna be like sad about it. But yeah, he
pretty much has to perform to the projections. You know
one thing here, you you just talked about Atlanta and
their lineup. The Padres are kind of the opposite. I
(10:20):
want to say a lot makes me nervous but the
bottom line in particular is weak. So that's a bit
of a minus strength Machado, you know, quibbling a little bit,
but yeah, just I'm a little out on him on
this price, not a lot, but enough that I probably
won't have a lot of him.
Speaker 2 (10:37):
Yeah, if he happens to slip through the cracks, you know, sure,
I'm happy to take him at a discount. But we
should talk about Devers. Then he is going at what
about half round ahead of Machado.
Speaker 1 (10:54):
Four picks, yeah.
Speaker 2 (10:55):
Okay, four picks around pick thirty six. I actually have
Devers below Machado in my own ranks, and you have
him above. But I assume it's.
Speaker 1 (11:08):
It's not it's a coin flip. Really, I was going
back and forth on them like a lot, and so yeah,
so here here's something really funny, and we don't need
to have like a long, long conversation about this. But
everybody has talked about Jazz and his injuries and the
injury risk, and I'm not denying that, like it's the
(11:29):
real thing. But I'm more concerned about Rafie Dever Raphael
Devers than I have about Jestism. And here's why. So
great start of the year last year through like the
end of July, and I'm like pulling it up now.
I think he had like a something like a nine
hundred ops. He was hitting it at this like super
(11:50):
elite level. Yeah, he had a at his height. I
won't cherry pick. I'll go the endage. I'll go the
end of July. Had a nine seventy nine ops in
July thirty first, like, he was just ridiculous. He was
having a super year, the kind of year we're like, man,
this is what I drafted. I don't care if he
has to steal bases. He could be a first round
(12:10):
like earner, and last year was going at like a
early like second round price. And then the wheels came off.
And first we didn't really know why right, like we
were kind of watching him or we're like, what's going on,
Like clearly something's wrong. And then it came out that
he was having a problem and not one, but both
of his shoulders, and the red Sox shut him down.
And I don't if you remember this part, like shortly
(12:32):
after was like, oh, you know, I don't need surgery,
I just need to rest. It feels, and I know
some of this is just the nebulous nature of news
now and finding news and you know, things being behind
paywalls and the Internet degrading, you know, or falling apart
and all that. But I really look at him and
I'm just like, man, I do not feel good about
(12:55):
Raphael Devers. He feels like a player that even if
I get him in a tray, if he gets off
to a good start over the first like like six weeks,
I'm looking to move him. I don't have a great
feeling about him making it all the way through the season.
I also think it's a really bad sign that they
want to trade Tristan Cassas who so they can move
Evers to first. Just lots of bad stuff in the
(13:18):
tea leaves here. I could be wrong, like he could
be perfectly fine and healthy, but just lots of stuff
there I don't like.
Speaker 2 (13:26):
Yeah, I mean with Jazz it's it's an elbow thing, right,
and with Devers, not one shoulder, but both shoulder. I
mean shoulders for a hitter, especially a power hitter, concern
me a lot more than an elbow. And you just
have to look at you know what Cody Bellinger's career
arc has been like since he injured his shoulder in
(13:49):
the World Series. Sorry are you gonna?
Speaker 1 (13:52):
I was gonna say so, Like through from August to
when they shut him down, four home runs and one
hundred and eighty appearances, you know, two of five, batting
average three twenty nine slug. I don't have the bad
all metrics in front of me, but I'm sure they
weren't good. Just no, yeah, just a lot there. So
if you're talking about a guy who a diminished version
(14:13):
of who's going to hit like twenty home runs, like
he gets the average up, it's like, it's just not
something I feel good about. Again, not a doctor, Like
maybe he shows up next month and he's perfectly fine
and the rest did it or they figure out a
way to manage it through like cortizone injections or whatnot.
But at this price, I'd just rather not be like
(14:34):
starting the season worried about that.
Speaker 2 (14:36):
Wait, it really shows in the kra too. I mean,
this is someone with a twenty one percent career kraate
and sub twenty and the two years before last year,
in that stretch you mentioned from August till to the
end of the year was up to twenty seven percent.
So I do think that does kind of, you know,
cause a little concern about where the average is going
(14:59):
to go.
Speaker 1 (14:59):
For Yeah, I mean it looks like and you know,
we can move to the three star trevedis, but also
looks like he was doing that thing where he was
just laying I don't even think he was missing per se.
I think he was just laying off more pitches thinking like, well,
I could try to walk, you know, I can try
to get on missed that way. But that even that
is even great because it's just not really his game.
(15:20):
It's not really what you want Rafield evers in family
to be doing. You want him to being the snot
out of the ball.
Speaker 2 (15:26):
And if he's laying off, he's he's thinking about it,
and he's sort of thinking about, Okay, what you know,
I've got to be selective about when I, you know,
go after a pitch because it's it's painful. So yeah,
I mean, I don't want to be dooming gloom like
very well sort of Philip the statue he plays every day.
But I just think that you know, the ceiling of
(15:47):
what you know, to your point, what we might have
expected based on his first half last year, I don't
think you can you know, be projected or even sort
of you know, wish for that that ceiling. I mean,
you can wish for it all you want, but I
think it's it's not very realistic for next year.
Speaker 1 (16:05):
Yeah, all right, So I think we we talked to
evers to death. So should we move on to you know,
we should three start tier? Okay, so more names here
and so you know, more to talk about. And since
the the one in zero star a little bit thicker here,
we can probably talk a little more at length. So
the three starts here is eight names Marcianos, Junior Camanero,
(16:28):
Ryce Lewis, Alex Bragman, Haineo Suarez, Jake Berger, Matt Chapman,
and Alec Boom. So pretty thick group. This is where
the tiers get wider. So there's clearly some differentiation between
the top and I think the last name in the
tier in particular. Is there anywhere you want to start?
Speaker 2 (16:48):
This is a really interesting tier. I let's start. Let's
just start with Fianto's I for some reason, I mean,
I watched a lot of mets last year because we
had you know, we had uh like the ros Yeah,
and and so I did, I mean, you know, and
(17:11):
I had Bantos in in a couple other places, and
I don't know why I am not fully con like
that projection just seems very very optimistic to me. I
think if I you know, I was looking at it
earlier and I was trying to isolate, you know, where
I was skeptical. And I guess it comes down to
strike out rate, and I guess, you know, the projections
(17:33):
sort of bake that in and give them like a
two forty nine projection. But I just feel like it's
it's a it's a little risky with the you know,
the big swing, a lot of swing and miss that
that to project you know, thirty plus home runs feels
(17:54):
a little optimistic to me.
Speaker 1 (17:56):
Yeah. See, See it's funny, great though.
Speaker 2 (17:58):
I mean, I will say the dude has big boy power.
Speaker 1 (18:01):
See, I'm on the opposite side of this. I'm pretty
excited about him. And I'll preface this by saying, so,
I think some people think of me as a Mets
fan and think that I'm a Homer, but I'm the opposite.
I'm a numerous Mets fan like many of us are,
and always tend to project them negatively. And it's funny.
I think I'm looking at the lineup, I think everybody
in their projecting lineup, I'm either below where ADP is
(18:25):
in my ranking or about even, and Bianto's is the
one guy I'm pretty like pretty far out in front
on him. And yeah, some of it is the excitement
of last year, but some of it is What I
think is that the power projection does look real to me,
and I think he could come close to last year's
(18:45):
batting average. I'm not saying he's going to top it. Yes,
he's always going to go through slumps and he's always
going to be one of those hitters who, like I
look at those strikeout projections, like if he strikes out
her eighty times in the regular season, that won't surprise me.
That's just the kind of the nature of his swings
and the way he hits. But I think he has
so much raw power. And the other thing too, is
(19:06):
some hitters like this have a hole in their swing
or they have a weakness. At least last year. I
know pitchers might catch up. I just didn't see that
watching him. I just saw a hitter who took some
good cuts and missed sometimes or miss quite a bit,
because that's how he swings. But I saw a hitter
who could hit a ball like almost anywhere. So I
if he led I don't want to say the league,
(19:29):
but if he led the position at home runs next
year and pop forty instead of the thirty like one
to thirty five he's projected for, that wouldn't surprise me.
And I think at that point, you know, unless he's
hitting like two twenty, you know, two or lower, I
think he kind of lived with the batting average.
Speaker 2 (19:47):
Well. And probably if he's hitting that many home runs,
he's you know, he's making very good and hard contact,
and so it's probably it's not like as likely that
you would see like a two twenty average or two
thirty average in thirty plus home runs. If he it's
thirty plus, you're gonna see probably at least two fifes.
Speaker 1 (20:05):
And having you know, having Lindor and especially you know
on base machine want Soto in front of the lineup
is going to pad that behind totals. I think that's
the other thing I like about him, like like compared
to the next name on this list, to Junior Cameron Aro,
who have a fine with it price. You know, I
know some people are worried to pay that, and I
know some folks are like looking at his batt of
(20:26):
all day and thinking, ooh, you know, he could be
a steal. There's going to be some helium. This is
like a context thing where I look at the Rays
and I'm like, well, if I had to pick between
you know, two hitters, one who's done it already and
obviously the redraft thing for we're talking about Dynasty, of
course I want cambon Arow, But in a redraft I
think I want the guy who's done it in the
(20:46):
better lineup in team context than the guy who hasn't
yet and I think will be great, but maybe not
right out of the gate.
Speaker 2 (20:54):
Okay, you're you're selling me on on Bientos. I mean,
and again between these two, you know, Cameron Cameron Arrow,
I think is likely to be a solid all around here,
but you know, Venta's could be more of a difference
maker in you know, especially in home runs and RBI.
So so I'm I'm I'm coming around. I do want
(21:16):
to talk about the next name on this list, which
uh is Royce Lewis of the Twins. Now here's the
thing about Royce Lewis. Uh everyone will talk about, you know,
Lewis being injury prone and and he might be. It's
common to say, well, you know a player is really
injury prone. Is that a myth? No, Royce Lewis is
(21:40):
fucking injury prone, like soft tissue injuries left and right.
And he you know, after he had this insane June
when he came back, then he missed more time, and
then he was he was horrible at the end of
the season, I think from I think it was like
August Septemberary slash two o seven two seventy three fifty.
(22:03):
So what I'm what I saw last year is that
the hives are very high with Lewis. You know, you
can go on runs where I'll hit you know, five
home runs in a week. But I just don't believe
that whether health plays a part in that if he's
playing with you know, some degree of injury at times.
(22:25):
But I think there's a lot of volatility and I'm
not totally sold that he is he is someone who
is you know, it's an upside play, but I just
yeah that getting to that upside depends on him being
healthy for like, you know, one hundred and thirty games
at least, and I just don't know if I see that.
Speaker 1 (22:44):
Yeah, So there's two problems. So this is a funny
case where I'm slightly ahead of the market on Lewis.
But when the time comes to draft him, if he's
the guy at the top of my sheet, I'll probably
be like, you know, the Larry David Kerb meme where
you're gonna that's That's how I think I'll be. So
(23:04):
I have him ranked there because of the upside. But
you know, the projection of five hundred eighty play appearances,
that one hundred and thirty four games, that feels really
optimistic to me. I do agree. If you get one
hundred and twenty games out of him, I think you
should be pretty like happy with that based on what
he's done in the past. And the other thing, too,
(23:25):
is oddly enough, you're right like the it's the slump
that concerns me more than him being great, Like, in
a weird way, if he went back out and did
we did in twenty twenty three, you know, over two
hundred and forty played appearance to be like, Okay, well,
we know he's great. He just has to do it
for a whole season. The fact that he was bad
for so long concerns me more in a weird way,
(23:45):
because it's like, Okay, well, what's a full season look like.
Is he's just gonna get tires and get fatigued. Do
we not know? And the other piece too, is like
when he was in the minors, I think we all thought, well,
maybe he'll never steal forty bases, but he could steal twenty.
That's clearly gone. And I don't blame the Twins or
Lewis for saying he's not going to run, but even
(24:06):
those like five or six deals in the projection, I
would he's kind of like his teammate cars career, like
I would bank that as a zero. You know, maybe
he'll get a string. So so really you're buying into
a player and he's no, he's not Corey Seeger, He's
not going He's not that expensive. But he really does
need to max out like in the other four categories
(24:28):
and probably do a little bit above this projection to
be worth it. And I think you're I think you're
talking me out of a little bit. Or we're gonna
move him down like a like a buck or two
and in my bids, which will probably put him behind
his ADP because I'd be okay rostering him, but I
don't necessarily want to be a position, you know, at
the table where you know it's the it's the eighth round.
(24:52):
He's a top guy in my sheet, and I'm like, oh, yeah,
I got to take him. He's a tough guy in
my sheet. I don't want to be there.
Speaker 2 (24:57):
Well, and when you do take him, or if if
one takes in there, then through the rest of your
draft you're thinking, okay, well, I've got to get a
corner who's third base eligible if I don't want to
be scouring the waiver wire. You know, it's just adding
a level of implication to your roster construction you don't
really need.
Speaker 1 (25:15):
Yeah. Well, also, it goes back to the Seger point,
which is how I'm doing that with Corey Sieger and
the ceiling I know he has and I'm like, yeah,
you know what, I'm gonna miss forty games of this player.
It's at Corey Seger's level where I'm like, okay, fine,
Like I'll take the forty game gap and find a replacement.
If it's going to be what Lewis did last year.
(25:36):
If you split the difference between last year and the
year before, it's like it's a big difference at this
point in the draft. A couple rounds later maybe like
it just yeah, it just feels like you're sort of
asking a lot. You have to start making different decisions
about your roster, and it's not for at least at
the moment, it's not for an elite player.
Speaker 2 (25:58):
When you mentioned, for a second, I thought you were
gonna mention Buxton as.
Speaker 1 (26:02):
The Twins, I thought about I thought.
Speaker 2 (26:04):
Stopped running because of these injuries. But it's it's sort
of funny and probably not funny if you're a Twins
fan to you know, look at that roster, see just
how much injury risk is in that roster? Enough on Lewis.
Speaker 1 (26:21):
Yeah, so there's like, well there's there's two names here
and then three names I kind of grouped together. Let
let's talk about the three first and they're not necessarily
in order. So these are kind of the three power
hitting like third base with the position. And this is
why I think I look at it as not strong exactly,
(26:42):
but for years, first base was the power corner position.
Now it feels like it shifted not too Henyo Suarez,
Jake Berger, and Matt Chapman. I like one of these
three clearly like more than the other two. I don't
know who could it be? Yeah, well, you know, but
you have a preference among these three or do you
feel like they're all kind of similar?
Speaker 2 (27:04):
I think they're kind of similar. I think let's see
how I have him. I have them in a row.
I have them Chapman, Suarez, Burger. I know, I I
I basically think of Chapman as high floor and even
in San Francisco, and even with an average that is
not going to be a plus. I think he's he
(27:27):
learned how to hit in that park. Well, he learned
how to hit home runs in that park. He hits
the ball extremely hard. Still, so I I think the
difference for me between Chapman and Suarez is that Chapman's
floor is a bit higher. But that being said, I'm
I'm not you know, I'm not a verse to Suarez,
(27:49):
and I know Suarez is going later, So not to
to play spoiler, but maybe you want to talk a
little bit about about Suarez.
Speaker 1 (27:59):
Yeah, So, I mean, Suarez is my guy of the
three here, and I see kind of more differentiation between
him and Burger and Chapman. And there's a couple of reasons.
One is that Suarez actually made some improvements in the
second half. He worked with the tool. I think it's
called track Jat. I'm gonna feel bad if I'm like
(28:20):
getting this wrong, but I might as well, like look
it up while we're talking.
Speaker 2 (28:25):
I don't you don't have to remember.
Speaker 1 (28:27):
Yeah, So I don't think he's going to do. You know,
you can't just take a second half and assume he's
getting forty home runs with a three hundred average. But
what I do think is I think you can look
at last year and say that it's legitimate. I think
the projections are understandably baking in a lot of what
he did in Seattle, particularly twenty twenty three. But as
we know, like that's just really a tough, unforgiving place
(28:50):
to hit. And I think it's almost like Colorado, and
this has been document at this point. It's almost like
Colorado for pictures, where when you lead there there's a
bit of bang over effect. I don't think the projections
are baking that. And I think Suarez is a pretty
good bet for thirty home runs. He's done it three
in the last four years. Yes, he's getting up there
a little bit. He's thirty three. He'll be thirty four
(29:11):
in July, but I think he can hang on for
another year, like maybe two. In terms of his power production. No,
he's not a great average bet, but I see him
more as like a two thirty two forty hitter as
opposed to the horrific like two hundred averages he had
with the Reds his last two seasons there. I also
like the lineup. I know the park isn't necessarily the best,
(29:33):
but I like the team context, like what they did
bringing in Josh Naylor. So yeah, I'm really high on Suarez,
and you know, he's somebody that if I miss out
on Biento's, he's probably the third basement I'm looking at next.
Speaker 2 (29:47):
Yeah, I think he's He's absolutely a bargain, So, you know,
I could, I could be persuaded. It's pretty close in
that at least between Suarez and Chapman that leaves a
bread and Alec Bohm.
Speaker 1 (30:02):
Yeah, we kind of skipped over Berger. Is that okay?
Speaker 2 (30:05):
Or it's okay?
Speaker 1 (30:07):
Okay?
Speaker 2 (30:07):
Lets you have anything to say about him? I you know,
I I worry about the swing and miss and the
streakiness and see a lot of batting average risk in
in Burger that I don't see in Chapman or Frankly, I.
Speaker 1 (30:19):
Mean I like that, I like the power obviously, but yeah,
I'm not quite as like optimistic about him as as
others are. I know, leaving Miami helps, but I texting not.
Speaker 2 (30:31):
The best either, but yeah, better than Miami.
Speaker 1 (30:33):
But I kind of think he is what he is.
And it's not that it's not that I'm against Burger,
it's just more at Price. I look at him like, yeah,
I think I'd rather take some of the names like later,
Like that's the thing. He's He's going like twelve picks
ahead of Chapman, He's going way ahead of Suarez, And
I'd rather have Suarez or Chapman at at Price for sure. Yeah.
(30:54):
So Bragmant and Bomb, so the reason I kind of
lump these two together. So this is sort of a
weird thing, which is I think there's a perception that
Bregman isn't quite the power hitter that the other three
were just talking about were. But what's really weird about
that in terms of results, he kind of is like
he had twenty six over runs last year, he had
(31:15):
twenty five the year before. But he's sort of and
I don't want to like compare him to this player
because he's even more durable, but he's sort of like
the Marcus Semion or Matt Olsen of his position, and
that he plays so much that a lot of it's volume,
and Semian is a better comparison, just because you know,
you look at Bregman the last couple of years, he
(31:36):
really needs to get that volume to kind of be
worth it, especially because you know, since post pandemic, he's
no longer an a lead average hitter. He's not going
to pop thirty plus home runs like he did pre pandemic.
There's he's not going to steal bases like he did
very early in his career. I feel like the margins
very narrow with him, and now we don't know where
(31:56):
he's going to land, and I worry, like more than
a little but about his landing spot. And that's kind
of why I lump him with with Boehm. Not not
because I don't think Bregman's better. I think he is,
but I could also verily, very easily see downgrading him
depending on where he lands. And like we're frankly closing
end of the point, like i'd say in a week
or two, if he still doesn't have a home I'm
(32:18):
gonna move him down like pretty not severely, but like pretty.
I'd say a couple of rounds.
Speaker 2 (32:26):
I actually have Bom ahead of Bregman, and the reason
for that is I almost feel like Bregman if he
doesn't resign with Houston. He's been making Hay off of
those Crawford boxes. I mean, if you look at his
his spray charts, you know it is so it is
so pool heavy for the home runs. He doesn't hit
(32:49):
it hard, but he's very good at back control, so
it's only like a fifty one percentile and hard hit
by stack cast numbers, but ninety six percentile in terms
of balls. And he squares up so he knows he
knows how to get the ball out to down the
left field line. In Houston. I can't figure out why
(33:13):
his walk rate dropped by half. I mean, he was
always a career double digit walk rate guy and went
down to like six point something percent last year. I
don't know if that's just you know, a blip, a
one year anomaly, but it doesn't make me feel great
about the overall profile, especially since he's not I think
(33:34):
the power numbers. You know, BELI someone who actually doesn't
hit the ball very hard, so if he goes to
a place with a park that is not favorable, I'm
very cool on Bregman for this year.
Speaker 1 (33:47):
Yeah, I'm a little wary, Like I think the thing
I liked about Bregman was the safety. I'm like, Okay,
he's kind of reached the boring phase of his career,
but put him in for twenty five home runs, slightly
positive batting average, great runs and RBI in that context.
Of course that didn't happen last year, but generally speaking,
(34:08):
you take a lot of that away and it's like, hmm,
like I'm just not as like confident about him anymore.
And this is more of a definitely more of a
fantasy argument, like someone who signs him in the short
jum will be fine with him. But yeah, if he's
saying eighteen to twenty home runs, yeah, suddenly looks a
lot like Bom at that point, except Boam, it is
a better average hitter, and we know the context it
(34:30):
gets traded like he's you know, great lineup, great park.
I do think it's kind of weird and that you know,
as great as Boem's average is he might be better
off in a in a more spacious part because because
Philly is more of a favorable home run park and
less of a park for hits.
Speaker 2 (34:46):
But think about Bohm and cores, not that he would
ever end up there, but the you know, the big
big field, the big outfield, he would hit like a
million doubles.
Speaker 1 (34:55):
Yeah, that's a good that's a good point. But yeah,
but Bom at the bottom of this year is just
sort of of like he's sort of a safety pick.
To me, He's fine, He's not necessarily somebody I'd be targeting.
But if I've missed everybody else, I kind of like, yeah, okay,
like I can I can live with this, probably so
mainly because I'm sure I would have taken lots of
(35:16):
made lots of choice in the first ten to twelve
rounds where I chose to be stronger elsewhere.
Speaker 2 (35:21):
So Alec Bohm has hit in twenty twenty three ninety
seven RBI in twenty twenty four ninety seven RBI, and
his projections are all you know in the seventies and
Louis's he's he's in a you know, he's in a
in a great lineup. Yeah, to your point, the park
is better for home runs than for extra base hits
(35:42):
that aren't home runs but that you know, getting because
you do see a lot of average risk in this
in this tier, and I really like the idea of
even if you're sacrificing a few home runs. And you know,
I don't put it past Boom to to get to
the low twenties in home runs.
Speaker 1 (36:00):
I mean, he's three, it's not out of question.
Speaker 2 (36:03):
Yeah, you're twenty and two years ago. So I really
like Bom I think more than some of the other
options in this tier. I just think there's that the
consistency and the average floor that he gives you is
pretty underrated.
Speaker 1 (36:18):
So I do have him at the bottom. But I
but I do agree with you that average you know,
you know, I know, I think this average is just
underrated a category, and he definitely provides that. It's not
you know, it's not an empty average either. It's not
like he's hitting you know, ten home runs. He's he's
producing like he's producing enough to just not type of
and obviously the average is not above three hundred.
Speaker 2 (36:41):
But I think you're just it's just you know, all
across the board, he's not really hurting you in other categories,
and he's giving you an you know, average at a
place in this tier where you know, for third base,
you're you're struggling to find a plus average.
Speaker 1 (36:56):
So yeah, I like bom, Yeah, all right, let's uh,
let's move to the two starts here. There's there's six
names here. There's Josh Young, Nolan Arnado, Isak Pretis, Max Munsey,
Matt Shaw, and Ryan McMahon. So clear drop. Like I
look at these names and I think, well, this is
(37:18):
a clear drop. Although it's funny because the projections and
I kind of wonder if they see something we don't
and maybe if we're like kind of being too harsh
because of past results. Projections really like Nolan Arnado, I
just look at a player where I'm like, hmm, man,
(37:38):
I still can still kind of see this like going sideways,
like in all sorts of ways.
Speaker 2 (37:45):
All you have to do is look at his baseball
card stats basically, and you just see decline and it's
you know, twenty twenty two to twenty twenty four home
runs thirty twenty six, sixteen RBI one O three ninety three,
seventy one average, well average, you know, cratered and then
came back a little bit to ninety three two sixty
(38:07):
sixty seventy two. It's I I don't everything is pointing
to someone who is basically, you know, going off in
the process of going off a cliff. Now he's had
you know, he's he's had act problems for a while.
He's he's not the sort of paragon of health that
(38:28):
he used to be. Still plays just about every day.
I I can't imagine a scenario unless the draft room
has totally you know, treated Aeronauto like he's he's got
you know, the plague, bird flu disease, djure. I can't
(38:50):
see drafting him. I'm just I'm completely out on Aeronauto.
Speaker 1 (38:53):
I think, yeah, he's a priced guy for me. But yeah,
given you know, at this point you're choosing your corner.
Probably like given the other names here and some of
the other first baseman, I wouldn't say he's at the bottom,
but he's certainly somebody I don't necessarily like. Want so
let me ask you out of these six names, and
(39:16):
I know some of this is contextual, but is there
is there a player who excites you, or if not
excites you, at least you think wow, you know that
this is somebody who at price, i'd be if not happy,
like pretty okay with adding.
Speaker 2 (39:32):
Not really, although I guess so this is contextual for me,
but I think Peretis can kind of do can kind
of like fill the bragman role about you know, in
in you know, getting to sort of high twenties, low
thirties and home runs because he too is you know,
he is tailor made for that part. So this tier
(39:56):
to me is kind of I mean, Matt Shaw is
an unknown and you know that's a who knows, but
everyone else in this year is old or injured or
you know, young is There's just a lot of swing
and miss there, and I think that kind of limits
his upside, even though he hits it pretty hard. So
I am not I'm not really really you know, targeting
(40:20):
anyone in this year.
Speaker 1 (40:22):
Yeah, so you know my thoughts here, Well, Shaw just
said runs a little bit, So there's that, Like I
he could be somebody who, even if he's the power
is not necessarily there. If he's like a you know,
thirteen fifteen player, You're not gonna be unhappy with that
because you might go, okay, like he you know, gave
me something like kind of across the board at this
(40:43):
price at corner too, where steels are not necessarily like
easy to come by. And then I think the other
two names here. Ryan McMahon is just kind of that
vanilla player, right, Like he's somebody at Price in particular
where you're like, Okay, I know he's gonna do you
know he's gonna hit twenty home runs, the average isn't
(41:04):
going to be particularly good. I'm gonna be really happy,
you know, I kind of have him in my lineup,
you know when when the Rockies are you know, when
they're in cores and and all that stuff. I'm gonna
hopefully have a bench option for him in a league
where I can do that. So yeah, I don't ever
(41:26):
sell McMahon, but he's just kind of one of those
like boring players where you're kind of like, yeah, you
know what, I am perfectly fine like with Ryan McMahon
as my third corner given the lateness of where I
got him and and the fact that he's just completely acceptable.
And I do have to say I'm sorry, you gonna say.
Speaker 2 (41:46):
No, go ahead, you were white it up for something.
Speaker 1 (41:49):
Yeah, I do have to say I'm still a sucker
for Josh Young. I can't help myself. I know a
lot of injuries, a lot of concern about that. Yes,
a lot of swing and miss. But at this price,
I'm kind of willing just to add him and this
particularly two in a twelve team mix supposed with deeper mix,
(42:09):
kind of ad him, see if these healthy, see what happens,
and in that twelve team mixed format, move on if
he if he's not healthy or if it's not working
for him.
Speaker 2 (42:18):
Yeah, no, and he's still he's I was gonna say
he's he's still young, but that's a little on the
nose rhyme mingman is funny. I mean, I don't know
if he's funny. I don't know him personally. I don't
know what kind of sense he reas. But in one, two, three, four, five, six,
so basically seven full or you know, so considerably considerable
(42:44):
big league seasons, how many how many of those seasons
do you think he has a w RC plus over
one hundred one zero?
Speaker 1 (42:55):
I mean, I mean, I figured like it's it's just
the Rockies thing where Yeah, he's been I just pulled
up his pace. He's been close, like he's been close,
he's been close to the league average.
Speaker 2 (43:07):
Well you might you might think that this is, you know,
to slag off rhyming man, but I'm actually sort of
agreeing with you, because he is the ultimate like not
a not a good player, but still ends up being
like a middling fantasy player and even gives you a
few steals, not many, but a few.
Speaker 1 (43:26):
I mean, I've just always kind of you know, enjoyed
is a strong word, but I've always kind of when
when you when I've drafted him, I've never been dissatisfied.
Like I've never been like, oh he didn't give me
what I wanted. What a bum. It's always like, oh,
like okay, Like he's been this like acceptable third corner,
(43:46):
you know, and back in the past, third you know,
middle infielder. Yeah, yeah, you know, he's he's fine.
Speaker 2 (43:54):
But that's the thing. I like him a lot better
if he has second base eligibility too. He's only got
third base eligibility.
Speaker 1 (44:00):
But by the way, just just for fun, since you
reminded me, the only player you know in a full
twenty twenty twenty one Ford the only Rocky qualifying hitter
to have a w r C plus of one hundred
or higher can and he did it twice. Can you
guess who it was?
Speaker 2 (44:18):
Uh, I'm gonna I'm gonna get wild here and say,
say Elis dads C J Cron Jesus, Okay, forgot forgot that.
Speaker 1 (44:32):
I think we all forgot about him? Yeah were they?
You know, was kind of could actually yeah prods Yeah
he so so.
Speaker 2 (44:41):
Okay, So my w r C plus uh critique is
is maybe a little misguided. He's fine.
Speaker 1 (44:52):
And then play our player player game. So yeah, I think, well,
just to read off the names of the one start
here and and and then you know, we'll decide if
we go off the board out. So there's six names here.
There's Connor, norby Ca, Brian Hayes, Jeimer Candelario, our old friend,
Matt Feerling, JOYR Teas, and Kobe Mayo. I think you
(45:15):
went first last.
Speaker 2 (45:16):
Week, so I think you should go first.
Speaker 1 (45:19):
Yeah, So I'm gonna go first here, and I'm gonna
go with a name off the board because I'm gonna
pull up his ADP to to make sure I have
it here because he's going so.
Speaker 2 (45:30):
Low.
Speaker 1 (45:31):
Like I was kind of tempted to rank him in
the one start to here, but I didn't want to
feel like silly or or foolish, and that's that's Josh's brother,
Jayce Young. So Jason is somebody I look at and
I get it he's at He's in the bottom third
of you know, a Tiger's lineup and in a bad park.
(45:54):
The minor league stats certainly are not overwhelming. But the
thing I don't really understand is he's going to play likes.
It looks to me at the moment like the plan
is to send spencertoricalson down. I would be surprised if
he gets traded. I know there's some squishiness in the
Tigers lineup, but I'm kind of perfectly fine with taking
(46:15):
Jase Young and hoping I get fifteen to twenty home runs,
hoping he hits two forty. Remember this is the one
star tire. We're being like realistic here. I know he
did not do much in like a teeny tiny like
sample or a cup of coffee, but I feel like
he's just completely like getting overlooked, like for a hitter too,
like in the Miners who again didn't like the world
(46:38):
on fire, but was solid, like he was a solid hitter.
So I'm kind of a little puzzled as to why
he's just being completely forgotten. I think some of it
is that early drafters really, if they don't see the
upside and a young player there, they're kind of not
taking it.
Speaker 2 (46:56):
Yeah, that's fair. It wouldn't surprise me if Jase Young
actually outperformed his his brother this year.
Speaker 1 (47:03):
Wow, that would actually that would surprise me if that happened.
Speaker 2 (47:06):
But I think you think more of more of Josh.
Speaker 1 (47:11):
I think I do. I can't wait to I can't
wait to fight him. And by the way, Jason's is
the number seven prospect in the organization for for the Tigers.
I forgot he still had rookie organization. And Jesse roach
like kind of said it was even more optimistic. He
said that, you know, he lacks a huge ceiling, but
(47:32):
proximity opportunity and possibly two sixty twenty with a solid
OBP as a promising package, and you know that might
not come this year. But yeah, again, that's that's kind
of better than I think what people are are thinking.
Speaker 2 (47:44):
Yeah, and if you project if you look at his
like Steamer and you you projected out to like, you know,
five hundred, five hundred and fifty plate appearances, you do
have home runs in the teams and decent counting stats.
I'm actually for once it's going to stay on the
board for for the one star tier. And I mean, look,
I I struggled to get excited about any of these names,
(48:06):
but I I want to talk a little bit about
Joey Ortiz, and mainly it's because like my case for
Joey Orties is as follows, has a job, has some speed,
so hard to find double digit steals in this in
(48:29):
this tier. I mean Norby has has speed as well,
but you know that that average could could be a risk.
And that's where I think Ortiz is maybe a little
more of a value here because I do think that uh,
you know, he didn't he didn't light the world on
fire last year, but he was solid and he did
(48:50):
get you know, over five hundred plate appearances. He kind
of got got his his licks in. He he will
you know, he's clearly coming in with a full year
of experience under his belt, and it's just basically filling stats,
getting double digit home runs and getting double digit steals
from your third basement, which I think is kind of interesting,
(49:12):
especially if you have not gotten as much speed at
the traditional speed position, so not at over the top endorsement.
But I see the case for him here and he
is he is going I think close to pick three hundred.
I want to say so, like yeah, yeah, late two hundreds.
(49:32):
So happy to get Ortiz there.
Speaker 1 (49:35):
Yeah, he's a little bit. He's a little bit older
than I was expecting. I thought he was like, you
know a little bit, he's gonna I think he'll be
twenty seven. Yeah, and in July, So that surprised me
a little bit. But yeah, he's he's kind of one
of those like Oatmealy players who the steals give him
that value. I think my concern with him a little
bit is that with those steals is he's never been
(49:58):
a big time based runner. I'm not saying they'll disappear,
but but if he's stole like seven or eight as
opposed to that eleven, it wouldn't shock me. I think
that's my only like kind of mild concern with him.
But but I agree with your premise, Like I think
he's a solid real life player who should provide value. Also,
it looks like he's gonna play short. Am I reading
(50:18):
like the depth.
Speaker 2 (50:19):
Are you on uh roster resource?
Speaker 1 (50:21):
Yeah?
Speaker 2 (50:22):
I think I think you're right.
Speaker 1 (50:23):
Actually, and to unless they move you know, unless they
move Bryce rang back, which I don't think they will.
It doesn't really look like there's you know, much in
the way of competition. And you know, if you look
at the if you look at the Brewers prospects over
at our site, you know, Cooper Pratt is is a
(50:44):
ways off so that there isn't a prospect that's about
to like knock him out either. So that's that's interesting
to say the least. Picture.
Speaker 2 (50:52):
Yeah, And honestly, like if you're looking at your you know,
your AM I and c I and then you your bench.
If we're talking about a thirty round league, I really
want to get you know, multiposition eligibility from just about
every every hitter that I that I can so the
(51:15):
pot even if he doesn't have it going into the year,
you know, a pretty strong competency is going to get it.
Speaker 1 (51:22):
Well again, this is you know, we brought him up
last week, but this is the any Clement thing right
like that, this is the whole Like you know, I
know that, but bubb and the Bloom have their mascot
every year, maybe ours is there any Clement even though
he's you know, not second base eligible but just that
player like double digit homers, double digit steals, like not
much higher than ten ten really boring, but yeah, keep
(51:44):
popping moving around and popping in and be like, hey,
you know what, Like I don't even have to start
him every week. It's just nice to know he's there.
So I'm not like trolling the free agent pool or not,
like I got to plug down like four percent of
my budget just to find a body exactly.
Speaker 2 (52:01):
And I'm trying to to harness the feeling I had
so many times, like deep into the season last year,
when you know, we'd be setting a lineup and I'd
be like, oh, thank god, We've got Ernie Clement, which is.
Speaker 1 (52:15):
Not something that you would you know, No, I mean
if you'd told me that in April or really he
told me that like June, I would have been like,
what are what happened to us? But yeah, no, there's
something to these players that go past pick three hundred
or even later that kind of become I think when
people think of glue guys, I think as somebody who's
like a twenty twenty and like, you know, pushing your
(52:36):
team to the top. It's like, no, really, the glue
guys or or are those guys at the bottom of
the roster where they're sort of set it and forget
it bench guys, or it's like, great, have this guy here.
He's going to be better than almost anyone in the
Free Asian pool except for the you know, unless someone
like Tyler Fitzgerald pops up and I can just stick
him in there and not really have to worry about it.
Absolutely all right, So do we have anything else about
(52:59):
third base? Or are we done for another week?
Speaker 2 (53:02):
We're done for another week.
Speaker 1 (53:28):
Thanks again for listening to episode three twenty four of
Flags Fly Forever, a Baseball Prospectus Fantasy Baseball podcast. So
once again plugging the site. You'll be able to read
about shortstops next week, my tiered rankings. We've just heard
about my ADP piece, but also the deeply coverage that
(53:49):
should be getting from Carlos Marcano and Nathan Grimm, the
prospects from Carlos, the Dynasty coverage from Jesse Roche, our
targeted of pieces. They're all there, please subscribe if you
have it already, and the Baseball Perspectives Annual. Apparently it
is you know out there. I've seen a couple of
(54:11):
pictures on blue Sky of happy customers, and I also
found out very happily. And I doubt he listens, but
Hunter felt to. I've followed on Twitter and now Blue
Sky for a long long time. He used to write
about the Celtics for for The Guardian. Now it's freelancing.
He did the red Sox like at the front, like
(54:32):
the write up, and I did the comments. It's it's
I'm thrilled that we wo out of the car together.
He's one of like my better internet friends. So if
you are listening Hunter, and again I doubt you are
a shout out. I'm really happy and a great writer too,
so you know, definitely along with all the other great writers.
Check it out. So for Mike Challenge on Hegeland. Thank
(54:52):
you very much. We'll be back next week to talk
about shortstops.
Speaker 2 (54:57):
Good night, everybody, take care, be kind bye bye.
Speaker 1 (55:06):
All right, just just a heads up it will be Thursday,
since it doesn't
Welcome to episode three twenty four of Flags Live Forever,
a Baseball Perspectives fantasy baseball podcast. I am the much
healthier Mike Chanella and with me is John Hanklin. John,
how you doing?
Speaker 2 (00:38):
I remain moderately healthy. It's been one of those weeks
where you know the meme from thirty Rock about oh
what a week and Lemon It's Wednesday.
Speaker 1 (00:50):
Yeah, twenty twenty five has been like that, where you know,
it's like Lemon, it's January twenty ninth. Yeah, that's really
what this year feels like. But we're here and hopefully
to you know, acknowledge that we feel you, but also
hopefully that this next hour or so can't be a
little escape asn't diversion. Yeah, as we talk about third base,
(01:14):
so I you know, before we start, I think third base,
you know, just everybody know as usual if you've never listened,
which I doubt there are many people like that at
this point, just the whole series. But we mirror the
Baseball Perspectus tier rankings that I do along with the staff,
and it's a five star system with and we'll get
(01:35):
into this in the podcast, but five stars is like
the first two rounds cream and the crop four stars
is like rounds three through six, close to elite three stars,
about round seven to thirteen, four stars, rounds fourteen to nineteen,
and then down to the bottom there's a letter below
this is like the one star, which is kind of
the really late active rounds and a fifteenth teamer. So
(01:57):
that's what we're doing. And yeah, they're basically just kind
of interesting to me because I feel like there's some years,
a lot of years where I look at it, I'm like, boy,
this this is a really like weak position. But between
the names of the top and some promising names near
the top, I feel it's it's more interesting than it's
been in years. So John, should we just get right
(02:17):
into it.
Speaker 2 (02:18):
Let's get right into it. We actually have some five
star players in this episode. So who are those those
three five star players, Mike?
Speaker 1 (02:27):
They are Jose Ramirez, Jazz Chisholm, and Austin Riley. And
I will say that, you know, in terms of ADP,
I think Ramirez into a lesser greed. Chisholm are pretty
clear cut. Riley's right on the cusp. Like, depending on
how you're doing your ranks, he could be like four
or five star, and you know, I kind of interestingly
I put him in the five star. I thought there'd
(02:49):
be some debate and there was none. The one player
there was internal debate with the staff on was was Chisholm.
Speaker 2 (02:57):
Yeah, is there anything you say about Jose Ramirez? I mean,
pretty much a career here last year. He's thirty two,
but there's really no indication of a drop off, So
we feel pretty pretty okay with Ramira.
Speaker 1 (03:10):
Yeah, and really all I can say about him, you know,
it doesn't really crack that top three of Otani Witten judge.
You know, he's going fifth overall. If you want to
take him forth, I think that's okay. If you don't
drop back to six, I think that's okay. But yeah,
he's There's not much you can really say about him.
You can maybe quibble about the team context with the Guardians,
but yeah, he's a solid pick there. I have no arguments.
(03:36):
You know. What I would say is that the other player,
you know, right behind him, jests Chisholm is sort of
the risky version of Ramirez, right, Like he could be
like Ramirez with a weaker average, I would say, but
there's a reason he's going about twenty picks later.
Speaker 2 (03:52):
Yeah, and I think really the only question with with
Chisholm is is health, because you know, when looking at
his career stat line, I mentioned this to you, but
I sort of thought of him as a little more
volatile when it comes to average, but he is actually
hit between two forty eight and two fifty six and
his four I don't want to say full years because
(04:14):
some of them were partial, but a pretty consistent average.
And you know, it's not a great average. It's likely
to be lower than Jose Ramirez the average, but I
don't think there's a real risk of him of the
bottom falling out, and especially like you see last year,
he cut the strikeouts a fair bit, the steals, you know,
(04:36):
ticked up a bit. I am very bullish on Chisholm
for this year. I mean, you know, if you begin
with the premise that he's going to play one hundred
and forty t one hundred and fifty games, I don't
really think you have a lot of worries about the production.
Speaker 1 (04:53):
Yeah. Well, again, I think that's the issue. You know,
there's some talk that eventually he's going to need surgery,
and it's a question of when and not if. It's
kind of similar to the you know I heard this
on Rates and Barrels earlier today and as an older podcast,
but kind of similar Trevor's story injury, where it's like, well,
you know, it seems likely he's going to need that
(05:14):
work down the road. Probably won't affect him this year,
but will affect him at some point. I'm I'm ahead
of the market daunchism too, like not way ahead, Like
I wouldn't take him in the first round, but I
think I have him earlier in the second round. And yeah,
that's a large part of it. Yankee Stadium helps, the
context help keeps him getting out of Florida, like really helps.
(05:36):
There's just a lot here for me to like where
i'd be comfortable with him in the second round, and really,
you know risk or no. I like him better, you know,
if you look at the round there and some of
the players going around him, Like I like him better
than Freddy Freeman, for example, Like Freddie Freeman is safer,
I suppose, but he's also a lot older and it
feels like the ceiling's lower. I like him better than
(05:58):
Jackson Merrill, who great rookie year, hasn't done it more
than you know, in one season. That's kind of where
I'm at with Chisholm Is. I just like him. I
think i'd prefer him over Contrera's over William Contreras is
going two picks ahead of him, just because I don't
really like taking a catcher in the second round. So
that's kind of my thing chism is that I'm not like, yeah,
(06:18):
I have to have him, Yeah, I'm going to take him,
you know at the beginning of the second round. Just
more of a preference thing.
Speaker 2 (06:26):
Yeah, I think that's that's just fine with Riley. I
feel like the market is I haven't seen the movement
in his ADP, but I have a feeling it's going
to climb a bit when people realize that, you know,
he was he was really from June until he was hurt,
(06:49):
he was kind of back to being classic Austin Riley.
He just had a couple of bad months, but from
June until he got hurt. I think around the end
of August maybe he had an eight seventy years he
the power was back, and I think, you you know,
I don't I don't worry about a drop in in performance.
(07:09):
I think he demonstrated that the skills are all still there.
Speaker 1 (07:13):
Yeah, you know, it's funny. There's a lot of there's
a lot of players on Atlanta that I'm bearishan, and
you know, i'd say Olson. You know, we've Matt Olson.
We've talked about him at length. We don't need to
do that again, Nazzie Albi's you know, Ronald Cooney is
the black box. But Michael Harris, I'm I get it,
(07:33):
like I get where the ceiling is. But I'm not
that excited about him, you know, in redraft. But Riley
is someone I have a lot of confidence in and
bouncing back to, like, you know, maybe not all the
way back to what he had in twenty twenty three,
but yeah, if he hits like thirty or thirty five
home runs with a good batting average and you know,
lots of runs runs about it in You're talking about
a four category player in a position that doesn't have
(07:54):
a ton of depth. So yeah, I'm Riley someone in
the Chisholm. I have a little bit have him a
little bit ahead of his ADP, which means depending on
where I'm drafting and depending on what the room is like,
I could see winding up with Riley in a couple
of places.
Speaker 2 (08:08):
Yeah, and you know, it's still a good lineup that
he's in. I mean a few players had down years
or were heard and you know, once Secunia comes back,
it's a strong lineup. It's a good, good context, good park.
Speaker 1 (08:20):
I like the Profile edition.
Speaker 2 (08:22):
Yeah, the Profile Edition is great.
Speaker 1 (08:24):
I think Murphy could bounce back. I mean really, really,
the only hole lineup was Orlando or Cy and he's
a nine hitter. It's it's a strong lineup for sure.
Speaker 2 (08:32):
Pretty boring five starsier then so four star tier two
players players.
Speaker 1 (08:38):
I think this is a little more interesting. Yeah, so
it is. There's Raphael Devers and Manny Machado, and maybe
we should talk about Devers last because I have a
feeling you and I probably mostly a grand Machado and
he's sort of settled into being like a boring player,
even even though he's kind of getting on the older side,
their older itch side.
Speaker 2 (09:00):
I just I just think with Machado that well, personally,
I don't know if you feel this way, but I
basically feel the same about Machado going into this year
as I did going into last year, except he's like,
you know, going thirty to around what thirty is twenty
five to thirty picks higher than he was during this
(09:22):
time last year. So I like Machado just fine, but
there's really no no longer a discount, So I think
if he falls, it's a great pick, but I'm not
reaching for Machado anymore.
Speaker 1 (09:35):
Yes, it's twenty three picks higher, and yeah, that's exactly it,
which is a great example of what I've been talking
about this year, which is I prefer players like this
to buy him on the dip. I would rather not
get him here. I feel like, if you're drafting him here,
you pretty much need him to get to the high
end of the stolen bases. He's not really at least
(09:58):
the last couple years, hasn't really been a big average guy.
I kind of buy the two seventy or so batting
average projection. There's nothing wrong with getting him here. Like,
if you get him at this price, I don't think
you're gonna be like sad about it. But yeah, he
pretty much has to perform to the projections. You know
one thing here, you you just talked about Atlanta and
their lineup. The Padres are kind of the opposite. I
(10:20):
want to say a lot makes me nervous but the
bottom line in particular is weak. So that's a bit
of a minus strength Machado, you know, quibbling a little bit,
but yeah, just I'm a little out on him on
this price, not a lot, but enough that I probably
won't have a lot of him.
Speaker 2 (10:37):
Yeah, if he happens to slip through the cracks, you know, sure,
I'm happy to take him at a discount. But we
should talk about Devers. Then he is going at what
about half round ahead of Machado.
Speaker 1 (10:54):
Four picks, yeah.
Speaker 2 (10:55):
Okay, four picks around pick thirty six. I actually have
Devers below Machado in my own ranks, and you have
him above. But I assume it's.
Speaker 1 (11:08):
It's not it's a coin flip. Really, I was going
back and forth on them like a lot, and so yeah,
so here here's something really funny, and we don't need
to have like a long, long conversation about this. But
everybody has talked about Jazz and his injuries and the
injury risk, and I'm not denying that, like it's the
(11:29):
real thing. But I'm more concerned about Rafie Dever Raphael
Devers than I have about Jestism. And here's why. So
great start of the year last year through like the
end of July, and I'm like pulling it up now.
I think he had like a something like a nine
hundred ops. He was hitting it at this like super
(11:50):
elite level. Yeah, he had a at his height. I
won't cherry pick. I'll go the endage. I'll go the
end of July. Had a nine seventy nine ops in
July thirty first, like, he was just ridiculous. He was
having a super year, the kind of year we're like, man,
this is what I drafted. I don't care if he
has to steal bases. He could be a first round
(12:10):
like earner, and last year was going at like a
early like second round price. And then the wheels came off.
And first we didn't really know why right, like we
were kind of watching him or we're like, what's going on,
Like clearly something's wrong. And then it came out that
he was having a problem and not one, but both
of his shoulders, and the red Sox shut him down.
And I don't if you remember this part, like shortly
(12:32):
after was like, oh, you know, I don't need surgery,
I just need to rest. It feels, and I know
some of this is just the nebulous nature of news
now and finding news and you know, things being behind
paywalls and the Internet degrading, you know, or falling apart
and all that. But I really look at him and
I'm just like, man, I do not feel good about
(12:55):
Raphael Devers. He feels like a player that even if
I get him in a tray, if he gets off
to a good start over the first like like six weeks,
I'm looking to move him. I don't have a great
feeling about him making it all the way through the season.
I also think it's a really bad sign that they
want to trade Tristan Cassas who so they can move
Evers to first. Just lots of bad stuff in the
(13:18):
tea leaves here. I could be wrong, like he could
be perfectly fine and healthy, but just lots of stuff
there I don't like.
Speaker 2 (13:26):
Yeah, I mean with Jazz it's it's an elbow thing, right,
and with Devers, not one shoulder, but both shoulder. I
mean shoulders for a hitter, especially a power hitter, concern
me a lot more than an elbow. And you just
have to look at you know what Cody Bellinger's career
arc has been like since he injured his shoulder in
(13:49):
the World Series. Sorry are you gonna?
Speaker 1 (13:52):
I was gonna say so, Like through from August to
when they shut him down, four home runs and one
hundred and eighty appearances, you know, two of five, batting
average three twenty nine slug. I don't have the bad
all metrics in front of me, but I'm sure they
weren't good. Just no, yeah, just a lot there. So
if you're talking about a guy who a diminished version
(14:13):
of who's going to hit like twenty home runs, like
he gets the average up, it's like, it's just not
something I feel good about. Again, not a doctor, Like
maybe he shows up next month and he's perfectly fine
and the rest did it or they figure out a
way to manage it through like cortizone injections or whatnot.
But at this price, I'd just rather not be like
(14:34):
starting the season worried about that.
Speaker 2 (14:36):
Wait, it really shows in the kra too. I mean,
this is someone with a twenty one percent career kraate
and sub twenty and the two years before last year,
in that stretch you mentioned from August till to the
end of the year was up to twenty seven percent.
So I do think that does kind of, you know,
cause a little concern about where the average is going
(14:59):
to go.
Speaker 1 (14:59):
For Yeah, I mean it looks like and you know,
we can move to the three star trevedis, but also
looks like he was doing that thing where he was
just laying I don't even think he was missing per se.
I think he was just laying off more pitches thinking like, well,
I could try to walk, you know, I can try
to get on missed that way. But that even that
is even great because it's just not really his game.
(15:20):
It's not really what you want Rafield evers in family
to be doing. You want him to being the snot
out of the ball.
Speaker 2 (15:26):
And if he's laying off, he's he's thinking about it,
and he's sort of thinking about, Okay, what you know,
I've got to be selective about when I, you know,
go after a pitch because it's it's painful. So yeah,
I mean, I don't want to be dooming gloom like
very well sort of Philip the statue he plays every day.
But I just think that you know, the ceiling of
(15:47):
what you know, to your point, what we might have
expected based on his first half last year, I don't
think you can you know, be projected or even sort
of you know, wish for that that ceiling. I mean,
you can wish for it all you want, but I
think it's it's not very realistic for next year.
Speaker 1 (16:05):
Yeah, all right, So I think we we talked to
evers to death. So should we move on to you know,
we should three start tier? Okay, so more names here
and so you know, more to talk about. And since
the the one in zero star a little bit thicker here,
we can probably talk a little more at length. So
the three starts here is eight names Marcianos, Junior Camanero,
(16:28):
Ryce Lewis, Alex Bragman, Haineo Suarez, Jake Berger, Matt Chapman,
and Alec Boom. So pretty thick group. This is where
the tiers get wider. So there's clearly some differentiation between
the top and I think the last name in the
tier in particular. Is there anywhere you want to start?
Speaker 2 (16:48):
This is a really interesting tier. I let's start. Let's
just start with Fianto's I for some reason, I mean,
I watched a lot of mets last year because we
had you know, we had uh like the ros Yeah,
and and so I did, I mean, you know, and
(17:11):
I had Bantos in in a couple other places, and
I don't know why I am not fully con like
that projection just seems very very optimistic to me. I
think if I you know, I was looking at it
earlier and I was trying to isolate, you know, where
I was skeptical. And I guess it comes down to
strike out rate, and I guess, you know, the projections
(17:33):
sort of bake that in and give them like a
two forty nine projection. But I just feel like it's
it's a it's a little risky with the you know,
the big swing, a lot of swing and miss that
that to project you know, thirty plus home runs feels
(17:54):
a little optimistic to me.
Speaker 1 (17:56):
Yeah. See, See it's funny, great though.
Speaker 2 (17:58):
I mean, I will say the dude has big boy power.
Speaker 1 (18:01):
See, I'm on the opposite side of this. I'm pretty
excited about him. And I'll preface this by saying, so,
I think some people think of me as a Mets
fan and think that I'm a Homer, but I'm the opposite.
I'm a numerous Mets fan like many of us are,
and always tend to project them negatively. And it's funny.
I think I'm looking at the lineup, I think everybody
in their projecting lineup, I'm either below where ADP is
(18:25):
in my ranking or about even, and Bianto's is the
one guy I'm pretty like pretty far out in front
on him. And yeah, some of it is the excitement
of last year, but some of it is What I
think is that the power projection does look real to me,
and I think he could come close to last year's
(18:45):
batting average. I'm not saying he's going to top it. Yes,
he's always going to go through slumps and he's always
going to be one of those hitters who, like I
look at those strikeout projections, like if he strikes out
her eighty times in the regular season, that won't surprise me.
That's just the kind of the nature of his swings
and the way he hits. But I think he has
so much raw power. And the other thing too, is
(19:06):
some hitters like this have a hole in their swing
or they have a weakness. At least last year. I
know pitchers might catch up. I just didn't see that
watching him. I just saw a hitter who took some
good cuts and missed sometimes or miss quite a bit,
because that's how he swings. But I saw a hitter
who could hit a ball like almost anywhere. So I
if he led I don't want to say the league,
(19:29):
but if he led the position at home runs next
year and pop forty instead of the thirty like one
to thirty five he's projected for, that wouldn't surprise me.
And I think at that point, you know, unless he's
hitting like two twenty, you know, two or lower, I
think he kind of lived with the batting average.
Speaker 2 (19:47):
Well. And probably if he's hitting that many home runs,
he's you know, he's making very good and hard contact,
and so it's probably it's not like as likely that
you would see like a two twenty average or two
thirty average in thirty plus home runs. If he it's
thirty plus, you're gonna see probably at least two fifes.
Speaker 1 (20:05):
And having you know, having Lindor and especially you know
on base machine want Soto in front of the lineup
is going to pad that behind totals. I think that's
the other thing I like about him, like like compared
to the next name on this list, to Junior Cameron Aro,
who have a fine with it price. You know, I
know some people are worried to pay that, and I
know some folks are like looking at his batt of
(20:26):
all day and thinking, ooh, you know, he could be
a steal. There's going to be some helium. This is
like a context thing where I look at the Rays
and I'm like, well, if I had to pick between
you know, two hitters, one who's done it already and
obviously the redraft thing for we're talking about Dynasty, of
course I want cambon Arow, But in a redraft I
think I want the guy who's done it in the
(20:46):
better lineup in team context than the guy who hasn't
yet and I think will be great, but maybe not
right out of the gate.
Speaker 2 (20:54):
Okay, you're you're selling me on on Bientos. I mean,
and again between these two, you know, Cameron Cameron Arrow,
I think is likely to be a solid all around here,
but you know, Venta's could be more of a difference
maker in you know, especially in home runs and RBI.
So so I'm I'm I'm coming around. I do want
(21:16):
to talk about the next name on this list, which
uh is Royce Lewis of the Twins. Now here's the
thing about Royce Lewis. Uh everyone will talk about, you know,
Lewis being injury prone and and he might be. It's
common to say, well, you know a player is really
injury prone. Is that a myth? No, Royce Lewis is
(21:40):
fucking injury prone, like soft tissue injuries left and right.
And he you know, after he had this insane June
when he came back, then he missed more time, and
then he was he was horrible at the end of
the season, I think from I think it was like
August Septemberary slash two o seven two seventy three fifty.
(22:03):
So what I'm what I saw last year is that
the hives are very high with Lewis. You know, you
can go on runs where I'll hit you know, five
home runs in a week. But I just don't believe
that whether health plays a part in that if he's
playing with you know, some degree of injury at times.
(22:25):
But I think there's a lot of volatility and I'm
not totally sold that he is he is someone who
is you know, it's an upside play, but I just
yeah that getting to that upside depends on him being
healthy for like, you know, one hundred and thirty games
at least, and I just don't know if I see that.
Speaker 1 (22:44):
Yeah, So there's two problems. So this is a funny
case where I'm slightly ahead of the market on Lewis.
But when the time comes to draft him, if he's
the guy at the top of my sheet, I'll probably
be like, you know, the Larry David Kerb meme where
you're gonna that's That's how I think I'll be. So
(23:04):
I have him ranked there because of the upside. But
you know, the projection of five hundred eighty play appearances,
that one hundred and thirty four games, that feels really
optimistic to me. I do agree. If you get one
hundred and twenty games out of him, I think you
should be pretty like happy with that based on what
he's done in the past. And the other thing, too,
(23:25):
is oddly enough, you're right like the it's the slump
that concerns me more than him being great, Like, in
a weird way, if he went back out and did
we did in twenty twenty three, you know, over two
hundred and forty played appearance to be like, Okay, well,
we know he's great. He just has to do it
for a whole season. The fact that he was bad
for so long concerns me more in a weird way,
(23:45):
because it's like, Okay, well, what's a full season look like.
Is he's just gonna get tires and get fatigued. Do
we not know? And the other piece too, is like
when he was in the minors, I think we all thought, well,
maybe he'll never steal forty bases, but he could steal twenty.
That's clearly gone. And I don't blame the Twins or
Lewis for saying he's not going to run, but even
(24:06):
those like five or six deals in the projection, I
would he's kind of like his teammate cars career, like
I would bank that as a zero. You know, maybe
he'll get a string. So so really you're buying into
a player and he's no, he's not Corey Seeger, He's
not going He's not that expensive. But he really does
need to max out like in the other four categories
(24:28):
and probably do a little bit above this projection to
be worth it. And I think you're I think you're
talking me out of a little bit. Or we're gonna
move him down like a like a buck or two
and in my bids, which will probably put him behind
his ADP because I'd be okay rostering him, but I
don't necessarily want to be a position, you know, at
the table where you know it's the it's the eighth round.
(24:52):
He's a top guy in my sheet, and I'm like, oh, yeah,
I got to take him. He's a tough guy in
my sheet. I don't want to be there.
Speaker 2 (24:57):
Well, and when you do take him, or if if
one takes in there, then through the rest of your
draft you're thinking, okay, well, I've got to get a
corner who's third base eligible if I don't want to
be scouring the waiver wire. You know, it's just adding
a level of implication to your roster construction you don't
really need.
Speaker 1 (25:15):
Yeah. Well, also, it goes back to the Seger point,
which is how I'm doing that with Corey Sieger and
the ceiling I know he has and I'm like, yeah,
you know what, I'm gonna miss forty games of this player.
It's at Corey Seger's level where I'm like, okay, fine,
Like I'll take the forty game gap and find a replacement.
If it's going to be what Lewis did last year.
(25:36):
If you split the difference between last year and the
year before, it's like it's a big difference at this
point in the draft. A couple rounds later maybe like
it just yeah, it just feels like you're sort of
asking a lot. You have to start making different decisions
about your roster, and it's not for at least at
the moment, it's not for an elite player.
Speaker 2 (25:58):
When you mentioned, for a second, I thought you were
gonna mention Buxton as.
Speaker 1 (26:02):
The Twins, I thought about I thought.
Speaker 2 (26:04):
Stopped running because of these injuries. But it's it's sort
of funny and probably not funny if you're a Twins
fan to you know, look at that roster, see just
how much injury risk is in that roster? Enough on Lewis.
Speaker 1 (26:21):
Yeah, so there's like, well there's there's two names here
and then three names I kind of grouped together. Let
let's talk about the three first and they're not necessarily
in order. So these are kind of the three power
hitting like third base with the position. And this is
why I think I look at it as not strong exactly,
(26:42):
but for years, first base was the power corner position.
Now it feels like it shifted not too Henyo Suarez,
Jake Berger, and Matt Chapman. I like one of these
three clearly like more than the other two. I don't
know who could it be? Yeah, well, you know, but
you have a preference among these three or do you
feel like they're all kind of similar?
Speaker 2 (27:04):
I think they're kind of similar. I think let's see
how I have him. I have them in a row.
I have them Chapman, Suarez, Burger. I know, I I
I basically think of Chapman as high floor and even
in San Francisco, and even with an average that is
not going to be a plus. I think he's he
(27:27):
learned how to hit in that park. Well, he learned
how to hit home runs in that park. He hits
the ball extremely hard. Still, so I I think the
difference for me between Chapman and Suarez is that Chapman's
floor is a bit higher. But that being said, I'm
I'm not you know, I'm not a verse to Suarez,
(27:49):
and I know Suarez is going later, So not to
to play spoiler, but maybe you want to talk a
little bit about about Suarez.
Speaker 1 (27:59):
Yeah, So, I mean, Suarez is my guy of the
three here, and I see kind of more differentiation between
him and Burger and Chapman. And there's a couple of reasons.
One is that Suarez actually made some improvements in the
second half. He worked with the tool. I think it's
called track Jat. I'm gonna feel bad if I'm like
(28:20):
getting this wrong, but I might as well, like look
it up while we're talking.
Speaker 2 (28:25):
I don't you don't have to remember.
Speaker 1 (28:27):
Yeah, So I don't think he's going to do. You know,
you can't just take a second half and assume he's
getting forty home runs with a three hundred average. But
what I do think is I think you can look
at last year and say that it's legitimate. I think
the projections are understandably baking in a lot of what
he did in Seattle, particularly twenty twenty three. But as
we know, like that's just really a tough, unforgiving place
(28:50):
to hit. And I think it's almost like Colorado, and
this has been document at this point. It's almost like
Colorado for pictures, where when you lead there there's a
bit of bang over effect. I don't think the projections
are baking that. And I think Suarez is a pretty
good bet for thirty home runs. He's done it three
in the last four years. Yes, he's getting up there
a little bit. He's thirty three. He'll be thirty four
(29:11):
in July, but I think he can hang on for
another year, like maybe two. In terms of his power production. No,
he's not a great average bet, but I see him
more as like a two thirty two forty hitter as
opposed to the horrific like two hundred averages he had
with the Reds his last two seasons there. I also
like the lineup. I know the park isn't necessarily the best,
(29:33):
but I like the team context, like what they did
bringing in Josh Naylor. So yeah, I'm really high on Suarez,
and you know, he's somebody that if I miss out
on Biento's, he's probably the third basement I'm looking at next.
Speaker 2 (29:47):
Yeah, I think he's He's absolutely a bargain, So, you know,
I could, I could be persuaded. It's pretty close in
that at least between Suarez and Chapman that leaves a
bread and Alec Bohm.
Speaker 1 (30:02):
Yeah, we kind of skipped over Berger. Is that okay?
Speaker 2 (30:05):
Or it's okay?
Speaker 1 (30:07):
Okay?
Speaker 2 (30:07):
Lets you have anything to say about him? I you know,
I I worry about the swing and miss and the
streakiness and see a lot of batting average risk in
in Burger that I don't see in Chapman or Frankly, I.
Speaker 1 (30:19):
Mean I like that, I like the power obviously, but yeah,
I'm not quite as like optimistic about him as as
others are. I know, leaving Miami helps, but I texting not.
Speaker 2 (30:31):
The best either, but yeah, better than Miami.
Speaker 1 (30:33):
But I kind of think he is what he is.
And it's not that it's not that I'm against Burger,
it's just more at Price. I look at him like, yeah,
I think I'd rather take some of the names like later,
Like that's the thing. He's He's going like twelve picks
ahead of Chapman, He's going way ahead of Suarez, And
I'd rather have Suarez or Chapman at at Price for sure. Yeah.
(30:54):
So Bragmant and Bomb, so the reason I kind of
lump these two together. So this is sort of a
weird thing, which is I think there's a perception that
Bregman isn't quite the power hitter that the other three
were just talking about were. But what's really weird about
that in terms of results, he kind of is like
he had twenty six over runs last year, he had
(31:15):
twenty five the year before. But he's sort of and
I don't want to like compare him to this player
because he's even more durable, but he's sort of like
the Marcus Semion or Matt Olsen of his position, and
that he plays so much that a lot of it's volume,
and Semian is a better comparison, just because you know,
you look at Bregman the last couple of years, he
(31:36):
really needs to get that volume to kind of be
worth it, especially because you know, since post pandemic, he's
no longer an a lead average hitter. He's not going
to pop thirty plus home runs like he did pre pandemic.
There's he's not going to steal bases like he did
very early in his career. I feel like the margins
very narrow with him, and now we don't know where
(31:56):
he's going to land, and I worry, like more than
a little but about his landing spot. And that's kind
of why I lump him with with Boehm. Not not
because I don't think Bregman's better. I think he is,
but I could also verily, very easily see downgrading him
depending on where he lands. And like we're frankly closing
end of the point, like i'd say in a week
or two, if he still doesn't have a home I'm
(32:18):
gonna move him down like pretty not severely, but like pretty.
I'd say a couple of rounds.
Speaker 2 (32:26):
I actually have Bom ahead of Bregman, and the reason
for that is I almost feel like Bregman if he
doesn't resign with Houston. He's been making Hay off of
those Crawford boxes. I mean, if you look at his
his spray charts, you know it is so it is
so pool heavy for the home runs. He doesn't hit
(32:49):
it hard, but he's very good at back control, so
it's only like a fifty one percentile and hard hit
by stack cast numbers, but ninety six percentile in terms
of balls. And he squares up so he knows he
knows how to get the ball out to down the
left field line. In Houston. I can't figure out why
(33:13):
his walk rate dropped by half. I mean, he was
always a career double digit walk rate guy and went
down to like six point something percent last year. I
don't know if that's just you know, a blip, a
one year anomaly, but it doesn't make me feel great
about the overall profile, especially since he's not I think
(33:34):
the power numbers. You know, BELI someone who actually doesn't
hit the ball very hard, so if he goes to
a place with a park that is not favorable, I'm
very cool on Bregman for this year.
Speaker 1 (33:47):
Yeah, I'm a little wary, Like I think the thing
I liked about Bregman was the safety. I'm like, Okay,
he's kind of reached the boring phase of his career,
but put him in for twenty five home runs, slightly
positive batting average, great runs and RBI in that context.
Of course that didn't happen last year, but generally speaking,
(34:08):
you take a lot of that away and it's like, hmm,
like I'm just not as like confident about him anymore.
And this is more of a definitely more of a
fantasy argument, like someone who signs him in the short
jum will be fine with him. But yeah, if he's
saying eighteen to twenty home runs, yeah, suddenly looks a
lot like Bom at that point, except Boam, it is
a better average hitter, and we know the context it
(34:30):
gets traded like he's you know, great lineup, great park.
I do think it's kind of weird and that you know,
as great as Boem's average is he might be better
off in a in a more spacious part because because
Philly is more of a favorable home run park and
less of a park for hits.
Speaker 2 (34:46):
But think about Bohm and cores, not that he would
ever end up there, but the you know, the big
big field, the big outfield, he would hit like a
million doubles.
Speaker 1 (34:55):
Yeah, that's a good that's a good point. But yeah,
but Bom at the bottom of this year is just
sort of of like he's sort of a safety pick.
To me, He's fine, He's not necessarily somebody I'd be targeting.
But if I've missed everybody else, I kind of like, yeah, okay,
like I can I can live with this, probably so
mainly because I'm sure I would have taken lots of
(35:16):
made lots of choice in the first ten to twelve
rounds where I chose to be stronger elsewhere.
Speaker 2 (35:21):
So Alec Bohm has hit in twenty twenty three ninety
seven RBI in twenty twenty four ninety seven RBI, and
his projections are all you know in the seventies and
Louis's he's he's in a you know, he's in a
in a great lineup. Yeah, to your point, the park
is better for home runs than for extra base hits
(35:42):
that aren't home runs but that you know, getting because
you do see a lot of average risk in this
in this tier, and I really like the idea of
even if you're sacrificing a few home runs. And you know,
I don't put it past Boom to to get to
the low twenties in home runs.
Speaker 1 (36:00):
I mean, he's three, it's not out of question.
Speaker 2 (36:03):
Yeah, you're twenty and two years ago. So I really
like Bom I think more than some of the other
options in this tier. I just think there's that the
consistency and the average floor that he gives you is
pretty underrated.
Speaker 1 (36:18):
So I do have him at the bottom. But I
but I do agree with you that average you know,
you know, I know, I think this average is just
underrated a category, and he definitely provides that. It's not
you know, it's not an empty average either. It's not
like he's hitting you know, ten home runs. He's he's
producing like he's producing enough to just not type of
and obviously the average is not above three hundred.
Speaker 2 (36:41):
But I think you're just it's just you know, all
across the board, he's not really hurting you in other categories,
and he's giving you an you know, average at a
place in this tier where you know, for third base,
you're you're struggling to find a plus average.
Speaker 1 (36:56):
So yeah, I like bom, Yeah, all right, let's uh,
let's move to the two starts here. There's there's six
names here. There's Josh Young, Nolan Arnado, Isak Pretis, Max Munsey,
Matt Shaw, and Ryan McMahon. So clear drop. Like I
look at these names and I think, well, this is
(37:18):
a clear drop. Although it's funny because the projections and
I kind of wonder if they see something we don't
and maybe if we're like kind of being too harsh
because of past results. Projections really like Nolan Arnado, I
just look at a player where I'm like, hmm, man,
(37:38):
I still can still kind of see this like going sideways,
like in all sorts of ways.
Speaker 2 (37:45):
All you have to do is look at his baseball
card stats basically, and you just see decline and it's
you know, twenty twenty two to twenty twenty four home
runs thirty twenty six, sixteen RBI one O three ninety three,
seventy one average, well average, you know, cratered and then
came back a little bit to ninety three two sixty
(38:07):
sixty seventy two. It's I I don't everything is pointing
to someone who is basically, you know, going off in
the process of going off a cliff. Now he's had
you know, he's he's had act problems for a while.
He's he's not the sort of paragon of health that
(38:28):
he used to be. Still plays just about every day.
I I can't imagine a scenario unless the draft room
has totally you know, treated Aeronauto like he's he's got
you know, the plague, bird flu disease, djure. I can't
(38:50):
see drafting him. I'm just I'm completely out on Aeronauto.
Speaker 1 (38:53):
I think, yeah, he's a priced guy for me. But yeah,
given you know, at this point you're choosing your corner.
Probably like given the other names here and some of
the other first baseman, I wouldn't say he's at the bottom,
but he's certainly somebody I don't necessarily like. Want so
let me ask you out of these six names, and
(39:16):
I know some of this is contextual, but is there
is there a player who excites you, or if not
excites you, at least you think wow, you know that
this is somebody who at price, i'd be if not happy,
like pretty okay with adding.
Speaker 2 (39:32):
Not really, although I guess so this is contextual for me,
but I think Peretis can kind of do can kind
of like fill the bragman role about you know, in
in you know, getting to sort of high twenties, low
thirties and home runs because he too is you know,
he is tailor made for that part. So this tier
(39:56):
to me is kind of I mean, Matt Shaw is
an unknown and you know that's a who knows, but
everyone else in this year is old or injured or
you know, young is There's just a lot of swing
and miss there, and I think that kind of limits
his upside, even though he hits it pretty hard. So
I am not I'm not really really you know, targeting
(40:20):
anyone in this year.
Speaker 1 (40:22):
Yeah, so you know my thoughts here, Well, Shaw just
said runs a little bit, So there's that, Like I
he could be somebody who, even if he's the power
is not necessarily there. If he's like a you know,
thirteen fifteen player, You're not gonna be unhappy with that
because you might go, okay, like he you know, gave
me something like kind of across the board at this
(40:43):
price at corner too, where steels are not necessarily like
easy to come by. And then I think the other
two names here. Ryan McMahon is just kind of that
vanilla player, right, Like he's somebody at Price in particular
where you're like, Okay, I know he's gonna do you
know he's gonna hit twenty home runs, the average isn't
(41:04):
going to be particularly good. I'm gonna be really happy,
you know, I kind of have him in my lineup,
you know when when the Rockies are you know, when
they're in cores and and all that stuff. I'm gonna
hopefully have a bench option for him in a league
where I can do that. So yeah, I don't ever
(41:26):
sell McMahon, but he's just kind of one of those
like boring players where you're kind of like, yeah, you
know what, I am perfectly fine like with Ryan McMahon
as my third corner given the lateness of where I
got him and and the fact that he's just completely acceptable.
And I do have to say I'm sorry, you gonna say.
Speaker 2 (41:46):
No, go ahead, you were white it up for something.
Speaker 1 (41:49):
Yeah, I do have to say I'm still a sucker
for Josh Young. I can't help myself. I know a
lot of injuries, a lot of concern about that. Yes,
a lot of swing and miss. But at this price,
I'm kind of willing just to add him and this
particularly two in a twelve team mix supposed with deeper mix,
(42:09):
kind of ad him, see if these healthy, see what happens,
and in that twelve team mixed format, move on if
he if he's not healthy or if it's not working
for him.
Speaker 2 (42:18):
Yeah, no, and he's still he's I was gonna say
he's he's still young, but that's a little on the
nose rhyme mingman is funny. I mean, I don't know
if he's funny. I don't know him personally. I don't
know what kind of sense he reas. But in one, two, three, four, five, six,
so basically seven full or you know, so considerably considerable
(42:44):
big league seasons, how many how many of those seasons
do you think he has a w RC plus over
one hundred one zero?
Speaker 1 (42:55):
I mean, I mean, I figured like it's it's just
the Rockies thing where Yeah, he's been I just pulled
up his pace. He's been close, like he's been close,
he's been close to the league average.
Speaker 2 (43:07):
Well you might you might think that this is, you know,
to slag off rhyming man, but I'm actually sort of
agreeing with you, because he is the ultimate like not
a not a good player, but still ends up being
like a middling fantasy player and even gives you a
few steals, not many, but a few.
Speaker 1 (43:26):
I mean, I've just always kind of you know, enjoyed
is a strong word, but I've always kind of when
when you when I've drafted him, I've never been dissatisfied.
Like I've never been like, oh he didn't give me
what I wanted. What a bum. It's always like, oh,
like okay, Like he's been this like acceptable third corner,
(43:46):
you know, and back in the past, third you know,
middle infielder. Yeah, yeah, you know, he's he's fine.
Speaker 2 (43:54):
But that's the thing. I like him a lot better
if he has second base eligibility too. He's only got
third base eligibility.
Speaker 1 (44:00):
But by the way, just just for fun, since you
reminded me, the only player you know in a full
twenty twenty twenty one Ford the only Rocky qualifying hitter
to have a w r C plus of one hundred
or higher can and he did it twice. Can you
guess who it was?
Speaker 2 (44:18):
Uh, I'm gonna I'm gonna get wild here and say,
say Elis dads C J Cron Jesus, Okay, forgot forgot that.
Speaker 1 (44:32):
I think we all forgot about him? Yeah were they?
You know, was kind of could actually yeah prods Yeah
he so so.
Speaker 2 (44:41):
Okay, So my w r C plus uh critique is
is maybe a little misguided. He's fine.
Speaker 1 (44:52):
And then play our player player game. So yeah, I think, well,
just to read off the names of the one start
here and and and then you know, we'll decide if
we go off the board out. So there's six names here.
There's Connor, norby Ca, Brian Hayes, Jeimer Candelario, our old friend,
Matt Feerling, JOYR Teas, and Kobe Mayo. I think you
(45:15):
went first last.
Speaker 2 (45:16):
Week, so I think you should go first.
Speaker 1 (45:19):
Yeah, So I'm gonna go first here, and I'm gonna
go with a name off the board because I'm gonna
pull up his ADP to to make sure I have
it here because he's going so.
Speaker 2 (45:30):
Low.
Speaker 1 (45:31):
Like I was kind of tempted to rank him in
the one start to here, but I didn't want to
feel like silly or or foolish, and that's that's Josh's brother,
Jayce Young. So Jason is somebody I look at and
I get it he's at He's in the bottom third
of you know, a Tiger's lineup and in a bad park.
(45:54):
The minor league stats certainly are not overwhelming. But the
thing I don't really understand is he's going to play likes.
It looks to me at the moment like the plan
is to send spencertoricalson down. I would be surprised if
he gets traded. I know there's some squishiness in the
Tigers lineup, but I'm kind of perfectly fine with taking
(46:15):
Jase Young and hoping I get fifteen to twenty home runs,
hoping he hits two forty. Remember this is the one
star tire. We're being like realistic here. I know he
did not do much in like a teeny tiny like
sample or a cup of coffee, but I feel like
he's just completely like getting overlooked, like for a hitter too,
like in the Miners who again didn't like the world
(46:38):
on fire, but was solid, like he was a solid hitter.
So I'm kind of a little puzzled as to why
he's just being completely forgotten. I think some of it
is that early drafters really, if they don't see the
upside and a young player there, they're kind of not
taking it.
Speaker 2 (46:56):
Yeah, that's fair. It wouldn't surprise me if Jase Young
actually outperformed his his brother this year.
Speaker 1 (47:03):
Wow, that would actually that would surprise me if that happened.
Speaker 2 (47:06):
But I think you think more of more of Josh.
Speaker 1 (47:11):
I think I do. I can't wait to I can't
wait to fight him. And by the way, Jason's is
the number seven prospect in the organization for for the Tigers.
I forgot he still had rookie organization. And Jesse roach
like kind of said it was even more optimistic. He
said that, you know, he lacks a huge ceiling, but
(47:32):
proximity opportunity and possibly two sixty twenty with a solid
OBP as a promising package, and you know that might
not come this year. But yeah, again, that's that's kind
of better than I think what people are are thinking.
Speaker 2 (47:44):
Yeah, and if you project if you look at his
like Steamer and you you projected out to like, you know,
five hundred, five hundred and fifty plate appearances, you do
have home runs in the teams and decent counting stats.
I'm actually for once it's going to stay on the
board for for the one star tier. And I mean, look,
I I struggled to get excited about any of these names,
(48:06):
but I I want to talk a little bit about
Joey Ortiz, and mainly it's because like my case for
Joey Orties is as follows, has a job, has some speed,
so hard to find double digit steals in this in
(48:29):
this tier. I mean Norby has has speed as well,
but you know that that average could could be a risk.
And that's where I think Ortiz is maybe a little
more of a value here because I do think that uh,
you know, he didn't he didn't light the world on
fire last year, but he was solid and he did
(48:50):
get you know, over five hundred plate appearances. He kind
of got got his his licks in. He he will
you know, he's clearly coming in with a full year
of experience under his belt, and it's just basically filling stats,
getting double digit home runs and getting double digit steals
from your third basement, which I think is kind of interesting,
(49:12):
especially if you have not gotten as much speed at
the traditional speed position, so not at over the top endorsement.
But I see the case for him here and he
is he is going I think close to pick three hundred.
I want to say so, like yeah, yeah, late two hundreds.
(49:32):
So happy to get Ortiz there.
Speaker 1 (49:35):
Yeah, he's a little bit. He's a little bit older
than I was expecting. I thought he was like, you
know a little bit, he's gonna I think he'll be
twenty seven. Yeah, and in July, So that surprised me
a little bit. But yeah, he's he's kind of one
of those like Oatmealy players who the steals give him
that value. I think my concern with him a little
bit is that with those steals is he's never been
(49:58):
a big time based runner. I'm not saying they'll disappear,
but but if he's stole like seven or eight as
opposed to that eleven, it wouldn't shock me. I think
that's my only like kind of mild concern with him.
But but I agree with your premise, Like I think
he's a solid real life player who should provide value. Also,
it looks like he's gonna play short. Am I reading
(50:18):
like the depth.
Speaker 2 (50:19):
Are you on uh roster resource?
Speaker 1 (50:21):
Yeah?
Speaker 2 (50:22):
I think I think you're right.
Speaker 1 (50:23):
Actually, and to unless they move you know, unless they
move Bryce rang back, which I don't think they will.
It doesn't really look like there's you know, much in
the way of competition. And you know, if you look
at the if you look at the Brewers prospects over
at our site, you know, Cooper Pratt is is a
(50:44):
ways off so that there isn't a prospect that's about
to like knock him out either. So that's that's interesting
to say the least. Picture.
Speaker 2 (50:52):
Yeah, And honestly, like if you're looking at your you know,
your AM I and c I and then you your bench.
If we're talking about a thirty round league, I really
want to get you know, multiposition eligibility from just about
every every hitter that I that I can so the
(51:15):
pot even if he doesn't have it going into the year,
you know, a pretty strong competency is going to get it.
Speaker 1 (51:22):
Well again, this is you know, we brought him up
last week, but this is the any Clement thing right
like that, this is the whole Like you know, I
know that, but bubb and the Bloom have their mascot
every year, maybe ours is there any Clement even though
he's you know, not second base eligible but just that
player like double digit homers, double digit steals, like not
much higher than ten ten really boring, but yeah, keep
(51:44):
popping moving around and popping in and be like, hey,
you know what, Like I don't even have to start
him every week. It's just nice to know he's there.
So I'm not like trolling the free agent pool or not,
like I got to plug down like four percent of
my budget just to find a body exactly.
Speaker 2 (52:01):
And I'm trying to to harness the feeling I had
so many times, like deep into the season last year,
when you know, we'd be setting a lineup and I'd
be like, oh, thank god, We've got Ernie Clement, which is.
Speaker 1 (52:15):
Not something that you would you know, No, I mean
if you'd told me that in April or really he
told me that like June, I would have been like,
what are what happened to us? But yeah, no, there's
something to these players that go past pick three hundred
or even later that kind of become I think when
people think of glue guys, I think as somebody who's
like a twenty twenty and like, you know, pushing your
(52:36):
team to the top. It's like, no, really, the glue
guys or or are those guys at the bottom of
the roster where they're sort of set it and forget
it bench guys, or it's like, great, have this guy here.
He's going to be better than almost anyone in the
Free Asian pool except for the you know, unless someone
like Tyler Fitzgerald pops up and I can just stick
him in there and not really have to worry about it.
Absolutely all right, So do we have anything else about
(52:59):
third base? Or are we done for another week?
Speaker 2 (53:02):
We're done for another week.
Speaker 1 (53:28):
Thanks again for listening to episode three twenty four of
Flags Fly Forever, a Baseball Prospectus Fantasy Baseball podcast. So
once again plugging the site. You'll be able to read
about shortstops next week, my tiered rankings. We've just heard
about my ADP piece, but also the deeply coverage that
(53:49):
should be getting from Carlos Marcano and Nathan Grimm, the
prospects from Carlos, the Dynasty coverage from Jesse Roche, our
targeted of pieces. They're all there, please subscribe if you
have it already, and the Baseball Perspectives Annual. Apparently it
is you know out there. I've seen a couple of
(54:11):
pictures on blue Sky of happy customers, and I also
found out very happily. And I doubt he listens, but
Hunter felt to. I've followed on Twitter and now Blue
Sky for a long long time. He used to write
about the Celtics for for The Guardian. Now it's freelancing.
He did the red Sox like at the front, like
(54:32):
the write up, and I did the comments. It's it's
I'm thrilled that we wo out of the car together.
He's one of like my better internet friends. So if
you are listening Hunter, and again I doubt you are
a shout out. I'm really happy and a great writer too,
so you know, definitely along with all the other great writers.
Check it out. So for Mike Challenge on Hegeland. Thank
(54:52):
you very much. We'll be back next week to talk
about shortstops.
Speaker 2 (54:57):
Good night, everybody, take care, be kind bye bye.
Speaker 1 (55:06):
All right, just just a heads up it will be Thursday,
since it doesn't
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