Episode 325: Shortstop Preview

Finally, a position with some truly elite players! We discuss the relative merits of Gunnar and Elly in the first round, why Francisco Lindor and Trea Turner might be more similar than you think, if CJ Abrams has another level, and other topics du jour at the six.

Plenty of flawed but intriguing options in the three-star tier, and then things fall of pretty quickly at the two-star tier and below. Jon and Mike pour multiple buckets of cold water on Trevor Story and Tyler Fitzgerald, respectively, and while we appreciate that Carlos Correa is still a good hitter, we just wish he would do it for a full (or even most of a) season. 

Flags Fly Forever is a Baseball Prospectus podcast. For more fantasy baseball information, visit baseballprospectus.com and click on "Fantasy."

You can find Flags Fly Forever on Bluesky (@flagsflyforever.bsky.social). The hosts of Flags Fly Forever are Mike Gianella(@mikegianella.bsky.social) and Jon Hegglund(@jonhegglund.bsky.social). The producer of Flags Fly Forever is Jon Hegglund. 

Special thanks to the awesome and generous Petite League for permission to use their track "Mets" for the intro and break music. Find their sweet lo-fi indie-pop sounds at petiteleague.com.  

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
I'll probably cut this section out, so you.

Speaker 2 (00:02):
Probably should so we don't sound like stupid. Welcome to

(00:28):
episode three twenty five of Flags Live Forever, a Baseball
perspective fantasy baseball podcast. This is Mike Janella, and with me,
as always, is John Haglund.

Speaker 1 (00:40):
Hey, Mike, how are you doing good?

Speaker 2 (00:42):
You notice I'm trying to make these introductions crisper because
I you know, you hear from people that they just
want you to get right into it, and I don't
mind the chatter. But I also know sometimes like from
listening to others, you know, I listen to a lot
of podcasts this time of year to kind of hear
what other people are doing. If it's like a five
minute intro, it's like, okay, like I'm you know, I

(01:03):
like you guys, but I also am here to talk
about baseball.

Speaker 1 (01:07):
So let me let me give you the bullet points.
It snowed about five inches last night, so it was
like the biggest snow we got all winter. Woke up
this morning and my son ate a little breakfast and
then promptly threw it up. And he's been home all
day and took a couple of meetings on Zoom because
I couldn't go to the office. So that's that's my

(01:29):
my Wednesday, and we can get to the baseball Now.

Speaker 2 (01:33):
Yeah, the kids, the kids here might are going to
have an asynchronous learning day because there's like a threat
of snow and ice. And I don't blame them the
school for doing that, because that's worse than snow. Like
the snow you can just kind of plow off, but
the snow ice combination just just makes for a mess.

Speaker 1 (01:52):
D Speaking of mess, we have quite a few shortstops
in our fast starts.

Speaker 2 (01:59):
What a segue. So yeah, to briefly introduce this to
the dwindling number of growing listeners, we're a week ahead
of the content coverage at the Baseball Perspectives website. So
this week the content is third base just another well
by the time you listen, it won't matter. But my
article is a little behind this week. It's going to

(02:20):
be published tomorrow, which which is Thursday, February sixth, And
what we're doing is we're a week ahead of the coverage.
And there's there's five tiers of players at every position,
the five Stars rounds one through two, the Elites four
Stars three through six, the three Stars, Round seven, through thirteen,
two stars, fourteen through nineteen, one star is twenty and

(02:44):
like through about twenty three or twenty four, and then
at some positions there's zero star. So let's go into
the five star because as you pointed out, there are
a lot of them. There'll be more here at any
position but outfield, and you know there are many more outfielders.
So this is very, very meaty. So we've got six
here and Bobby with Junior, Ellie De la Cruz, Gunnar Henderson,

(03:07):
Mookie Betts who's at short stop now, which seems weird,
but he is, Francisco Lindor, and CJ. Abrams, so big tier.
I know some of these names are obvious, like we
could probably spend five seconds, you know, talking about great
Bobby with Junior is But is there anywhere you want
to start?

Speaker 1 (03:25):
Yeah, I wanted to talk about kind of put Ellie
next to Gunner and as far as ADP goes and
the last I think it's been consistent throughout draft season,
but in the last fifty Draft champions, we've got Ellie
going pick four, Gunner going around pick six. Wait is

(03:46):
a clear number two overall? Now for I feel like
I'm a little I might even lean Gunner here, And
I just wanted to get your take because this is
kind of the class case of two players, one of
whom I think is is a very high floor player,
and that's Henderson. And the other is maybe the four

(04:09):
is a little lower, but the ceiling could be much higher,
and that's that's Ellie da La Cruz. I still worry
about the k rate, and I worry about some variants
possible in the batting average with Ellie. Even though he
does hit the ball very hard, the steels are obviously
the big draw. I think it's tough to project steels.

(04:32):
You know, you you assume that he's going to, if
not touch the fifty sixty seven he got last year.
He's projected pretty much like fifty four for most for
you know steamer zips atc I'll have them at fifty four.
What's your your calculus there? And you know you have

(04:53):
Ellie ahead, and I'm just wondering what you're thinking is
as far as putting him head of Gunner.

Speaker 2 (05:00):
Well, I'll be honest, like this is like a virtual tie,
like I have the same like mixed auction values. So
so the tie break here is their ADP. So really
like I have them seven eight overall, which means I'm
slightly behind the market just because I've got a couple
of outfielders that i prefer, and we can like talk

(05:20):
about that like when we get to the outfield podcasts.
But yeah, I think they're really close. And I agree
with everything you said, which is Ellie probably is more
of a ceiling pick, particularly because of those those steals,
but there's way more variance. And yeah, the strikeouts still

(05:40):
get me nervous, honestly, they get me really nervous. But
there is that chance. I don't think he'll lose a job,
but there is a chance he hits like two twenty five,
two thirty. And if he does that, like the runs
and the runs bad at inn't drop. The steals obviously drop.
If you can steal first, the power would drop a
little bit. So I don't think you'd be buying into
a complete bus. But there's some there's a bit of

(06:03):
a disappointment factor here that's not related to injury risks
I don't think exists with any other first round pick, whereas, yeah,
Gunner here is the safer pick, and it's not like
his ceiling is that far off from Ellie. I just
think it's a different profile. And I when I look
at these two, I don't think I'm going to change

(06:25):
my ranks to put Gunner ahead of Ellie. But you know,
if you and I am the main event, like say,
you know, we have the pick and it's a choice
between these two, and you nudge me, you know, and say, hey,
like I want to take Gunner over Ellie. I don't
care what your sheet says, Mike, or what our sheet says.
I'm not going to fight you on it. Yeah.

Speaker 1 (06:45):
Yeah, I think that with Gunner, the power from last
year might be a little that might have been a
career year as far as the thirty seven homers, but
I think around thirty is pretty pretty safe. And I
think there's a little bit of room to pick up
some some batting average as well. I mean, I just

(07:07):
think he's an all around great hitter, and I feel
better about drafting players like that in the first round,
even if they don't completely dominate one category. And by
the way, you let slip. We didn't talk about it
last week, but we are officially registered for our second
main event.

Speaker 2 (07:27):
I did let it slip. Yeah, I didn't, you know,
I didn't really know it was like breaking news thing
or anything. But yeah, we're we're gonna try our hand
again at the main event. Hopefully you know, crack at
least the top one hundred this year and you'll hopefully
win win our bracket again. So yeah, we're looking to
have more success than than we had last year.

Speaker 1 (07:50):
And just so just so you know that you know,
we are we are invested in the you know, the
projections and the ranks that we're talking about on the podcast.
You know, this is not purely theoretical for us.

Speaker 2 (08:03):
Yeah, we're Yeah, I would say we have we can
ever made event podcast and and have that whole discussion
another time.

Speaker 1 (08:12):
Uh, you have you have Abrams in your five star
I'm kind of you know, I don't know if there's
anything you want to say about Mooki or Lindor. I
do kind of want to bring up Lindor maybe in
a minute. But you have Abrams ahead of a DP.
You have him in your five star tier, which implies
top two rounds, and he is currently going the fourth round. Uh,

(08:38):
it's just ahead of Corey seeger. So you want to
talk a little bit about your enthusiasm for Abrams someone
that we were we were pretty bullish on last year,
and he had a solid year, a good year, So
you think more of the same or uh, maybe even
a step up.

Speaker 2 (08:57):
Well here, I think the same thing I thought about
Abram's last year. He's similar to me, and I think
the steel ceiling might be a little bit lower, but
he well, I shouldn't say the power seil is a
little bit lower, but he's similar to me, to Ellie,
like I see them as having similar potential outcomes, and
really like Abrams, like remember last year in twenty twenty three,

(09:19):
actually in twenty twenty three, in the second half, he
ran like a fiend, and then the league it was weird.
He's often you hear this with like, you know, hitting,
but the league kind of adjusted and then he was
adjusting back. I still see a really high steel ceiling here,
and there's enough power, there's enough of everything else that
this is a back end of the second round. I
don't have him when you know, this is the whole

(09:40):
thing about these tiers, Like I don't have him up
there with the other five shortstops. It's more like he's
right on the periphery of the five and four star tiers.
But yeah, i'd be fine with him like probably you know,
end of the second round, but more realistically beginning of
the third round. Like keep in mind, if I have
somebody ranked at the end of the second round, it

(10:01):
means that the draft would have to be chalk for
me to take the player there. So I'm looking at
him as more of a third round pick. So yeah,
I like Abrams a lot, and if I miss out
on these shortstops, I kind of like making the Steel play.
I look at the projection and I think it's a
little pessimistic, particularly on the stolen bases. I think everything

(10:22):
else is fine there. So if you're looking at twenty
forty player with like a two to fifty batting average
with a pretty good run total, that plays for me
at this value slot.

Speaker 1 (10:34):
Yeah, I was going to say, you would have to
be a little bit higher on the Steels projection to
justify him in the five star or kind of on
the four or five border, because projections have him pretty
solidly in the thirties. I would say, well, it's kind
of a range all though. I would say mid mid
to high thirties. Mid thirties is sort of the mean there.

(10:58):
And when you when you get down when you get
down to like the some of the three star players,
you're you're maybe getting some similar profiles. And so I
think the only thing that that would justify Abrams here
is if you really were you felt good about forty
ish steals. I mean, I like him, I just don't

(11:19):
know that there's a lot more ceiling and and I
actually you know the stack cast uh spirit metrics. I
don't want to overplay those, but he actually has. He's
a slower sprit speed than you know, people like Mason
Wynn and and GM Henderson and Anthony Bolby. He's He's not.

(11:39):
I thought of him as more of a burner, and
I thought there's not a direct correlation between that and
your soul and based total. But he is. He is
not the the blazing speedster that that maybe we thought
he was.

Speaker 2 (11:53):
Yeah, I I you know. The funny thing about him, though,
is that I think you're right. But that was even
the thing about him in twenty three when he was
stealing all those bases the second half, it was more
that he was maximizing his jumps. He was getting good leads,
he was getting good reads, and that was the thing
that pitchers started figuring out. And my bet again is

(12:14):
kind of on the cat and mouse game and him
kind of taking some of that advantage back this year.
So yeah, I do agree. If you think thirty one steals,
which is where like the more pessimistic projections have him at,
is kind of where he's going to sit, I think
you're right. I don't think you should take him this early.

(12:35):
I will also say the other side of this too,
like this this is a player is going to be
twenty four. I do think there's some room for growth
besides Steals as well. Like I'm not saying he's going
to be like a top of the pop short stop
like Gutter for example. But this kind of goes back
to the lle analogy, Like I look at the two
of them, and I'm like, well, I don't think they're

(12:57):
as different as people might think they are, Like just
based on last year's numbers.

Speaker 1 (13:03):
Uh, do you want to talk about anyone in else
in the five star?

Speaker 2 (13:07):
Like, yeah, just Lindor Briefly, I think that's kind of
is what he is. I'm I think it's odd that
coming off the end of a season last year where
he missed lindormis a lot of time due to back
issues nobody's really talking about that. There's not even a
slight downgrade on him. I get it. He was great
last year and boy did we you know, speaking the

(13:28):
main event, Boy did we benefit from him like on
the whole. But this is more of a downgrade where
I have him probably like middle early to middle part
of the second round more than I think he's going
on the back end of the first, which means realistically,
I probably am not going to have him, particularly in

(13:49):
draft formats anywhere. And some of this is Lindora and
a slight nervous nervousness about the back. And it's less
even I'm worrising to get hurt. It's more I think, well,
if the medicine or cautious and he's like a fifteen
to twenty steel guy as opposed to a thirty steel guy,
that that's a big difference.

Speaker 1 (14:07):
Yeah, I think all that's fair in the back is
really it's one of those like we were talking about
shoulders last week, you know, backs are also something that
affects you know, I'm speaking a little bit out of
my out of my depth. I am not that kind
of doctor, but I have I have suffered some some

(14:27):
back related woes. And it really does affect pretty much
everything that you're doing with your body. So yeah, I
want to talk about Lindor in contrast to someone in
the four star tier. So should we get to the
four star tier? And then I yeah, that a little bit.

Speaker 2 (14:45):
Yeah, there's three names here corus Seeger Trey, Turner, and
O'Neil Cruise. And I mean, I think unless you want
to make a really weird comparison here, I think it's
pretty obvious you want to talk about trade Turner.

Speaker 1 (14:58):
Yeah, and I have have Lindor. I mean, double check
my my ranks here. I have Lindora ahead of Turner
just right. I have one, two, three, four, Lindor fifth,
Turner sixth. I just think they're they're a lot closer
for me. And I think if Lindor is being slightly overvalued,

(15:19):
I think maybe Turner's being slightly undervalued. And I sort
of i'd be I'll be interested to hear where you
are hesitant on Turner. Yes, it seems like the running,
certainly last year was was dialed down a bit, although
you know he was out for a while, he's still

(15:40):
he stole nineteen bases, but he did miss forty one games,
so you probably put that total somewhere in the mid
to high twenties if he plays a full year. The
speed is still good. I mean last year he talked
about being nervous to run because of the hamstring injury,
and I guess with with Turner what I want to
and kind of, you know, it's thirty one, right, so

(16:03):
he is sort of getting to that period of his
career where the speed might start to, you know, sort
of fade away a little bit. But he's he's just
he's a great hitter. He's still hit two ninety five,
even with a pretty bad slump. I think if you
just sort of don't overthink it, he's in a really

(16:25):
great lineup, and I think the accumulating stats will be there.
I think I would probably his projections happen mostly in
the nineties. As far as runs, I easily see triple
digit runs, mid twenties homers and mid twenties, mid to

(16:45):
high twenties steals, mid twenties steals. But it's it's still
I think, a really safe and you know, it's a
safe five category, a true five category profile, And so
I would not be surprised if he returns like you know,
thirty ish dollars next year and you maybe get him

(17:06):
at a slight discount.

Speaker 2 (17:09):
Yeah, So couple things. One just and I kind of
louted this before. So this is one of the kind
of the problems with the tiers is that I more
have Abram, Seger and Turner in a clump, and this
is just kind of how I have them ranked, Like
I have them six draft slots apart, and it just
so happens that Abrams is at the bottom of one

(17:31):
tier and Seegers at the top of another. So it's
just kind of a weird like way that worked out.
So it's not like I'm way down on Turner. It's like, well,
this is just how things shook out. However, I do
have slight reservations. One of them is the hamstring strain.
He was out for a month and a half. But
the bigger concern is you alluded to first. For a

(17:51):
while he wasn't running than he was, but he was
getting caught more often than he did. And I'm not
saying that'll necessarily over physically, but I do start to see,
as you pointed out, he'll be thirty two in June.
Players do kind of start to slow down a little bit.
They do tend to be more cautious. I know running

(18:12):
is a big part of his game, but to your point,
and this is kind of a weird thing about Turner
because you know the type of player he is, and
he's so good everywhere else, he doesn't necessarily have to
run or run a lot to be valuable, if that
makes any sense. So it's it's not like, oh no,
if trade turnerly steals, only steals fifteen to twenty bases,
like he's going to fall off. And so then my

(18:34):
second concern is, you know me, I don't want to
call any I never call him any injury prone. But
this is a player who like missed a significant amount
of time early in his career and then now for
the first time in years, had an injury. I'm not
suggesting he's like an automatic Canada to get hurt, but
it's because of the demand's position, because of the way

(18:54):
shortstop is. He stays on shortstop, which it looks like
that's what he'll do. I just think he's more prone
due to those demands of being past age thirty on
the curve, you know, missing like a few games here
and there, and I think I see that some of
the projections have him up at like, you know, one
hundred and fifty, one hundred and fifty six games. That
feels robust to me. I feel a little safe for

(19:15):
like one forty five. So all of that combined is
just looking at a player. I'm like, I think he's great.
I think you're right. He could very easily. I could
be wrong about this, and he could have one more
year in the tank and could be a second round
player on the cusp of the first. But I just
feel like I don't want to pay that price.

Speaker 1 (19:34):
I would just say, and of course you make great points,
but pretty much everything you just said about Turner you
could also say about Lindor. Yeah, as far as the
age and the the you know, injury last year and
the worry that it will manifest in some form, even
if it doesn't keep him out, might keep him from
running as much. So I think what we're what we're

(19:55):
seeing here really is a kind of maybe a little
bit of recency bias. And I'm not talking about you know,
I'm talking about the market more so a little bit
more recently biased with Lindor, whereas I think he and
Turner are pretty pretty comparable.

Speaker 2 (20:07):
Yeah, I think I think that's true. Like for me,
I have I think I have both Lindor and Turner
like about equally, like the same nine I have to
look at like the ADP. But I think I have
them about the same number of ticks like behind what
their ADP is. So yeah, I've got and actually I've
got Turner six slots behind his ADP. I've got Lindor

(20:29):
five slots behind his ADP. Yeah for me, I'm sort
of downgrading them equally. But I think you're right. I
think the market is has Lindor very close to what
you're in last year, and has Turner around when you're
in last year, And you're right, like what that is
is the market always does this, like it's probably over
correcting based on last year for sure. And if you

(20:52):
don't agree with me, like if if you think Turner's
hamstrings are fine, and honestly, if he looks good this spring,
looks healthy, I I'll probably move him up to to
the five star tier. This is sort of a preseason
rank because that's when I'm publishing these where I'm like, wow,
I'd like to kind of see what he does before
I you know, in March, before I just confidently like
take him in the second round.

Speaker 1 (21:13):
So two other players in the fourth star as you mentioned,
Corey Seeger and O'Neil Cruz. You have anything on either
of those players you want to.

Speaker 2 (21:22):
So I just want to talk about Seger from a
strategic point. I like him. I like him a lot,
and I like him better than the market. I will
say though, the reason he's ranked rais an FBC and
I kind of get it, is that he's there's two things.
He's a four category player, which means if you draft
someone like this, particularly early, it does affect your build

(21:42):
like you have particularly is in the middle infielder you
have to get those steals like elsewhere, you have to
squeeze more out of your roster. It changes things a
little bit. And then the other piece with Seger two,
we pretty much know, like the odds of getting like
one hundred and fifty one games like he had in
twenty twenty two, who are really slim, you're realistically looking

(22:04):
one hundred and twenty, one hundred and twenty five, I
would say, like one hundred and twenty realistic. So in
he's almost weird players in a shallow league. I kind
of like him or his twelve team mix. It's like, Okay, well,
I can find a decent middle infield replacement for him
for a month and ride the thirty home runs and
the great production for the rest of the way. In

(22:26):
a in a deeper league, it's like I'm going to
discount him a little bit because in an ale only
I'm maybe getting some empty steals if I'm lucky, and
not much else.

Speaker 1 (22:36):
Yeah, it's just making googling some ages. And it's interesting.
We've got four players in the four and five star
tiers who are essentially the same age within a couple
of years of each other. You got Mooky Bets at
thirty two, Lindor and Turner at thirty one, and Secret

(22:57):
at thirty. So it is a kind of if you
are looking to get a four star, five star shortstop,
you're sort of do you go you know, young with
upside or do you go you know, sort of a
little older with some injury and playing time concerns. And

(23:18):
I would say, like with and and Gunnar Henderson are
the ones who are both young and you know, seem
very safe.

Speaker 2 (23:26):
History suggests that you should take the younger player. Yeah,
and particularly shortstop, Like like so each infield position has
like historically has different age curves, and like first base
has the slowest age curve, which which kind of makes sense,
shortstop just has the roughest like age curve. And it's
it's just because it's such a physically demanding position. Like

(23:48):
what usually happens is a player moves off of it
a rod and like goes to third base or goes
the you know, in some case goes the outfield, or
you know, just goes somewhere else. The players who stay
a short particularly like past age like thirty two. Yes
there's exceptions like Derek Jeter, but but generally it's a
rough age declining. If the player stays there and off

(24:09):
the thing, it often impacts his offense. So yeah, if
all other things being equal, I'd rather take the younger
player and then on the upside than take the older
player and hope you know that there's not a degradation.

Speaker 1 (24:27):
As a way of getting to the three starsier. I'm
just looking at the NFBC ADP and it's really interesting that. Okay,
so we've got currently five shorts ups going in the
first round. We've got four more going the next three rounds,
and then there's a pretty big drop off. So between
pick let's see forty five fifty one and pick about one. Oh,

(24:56):
I don't know one twenty five or so, you only
have one shortstop in the middle of that range, and
it's it's Willia Domas who leads off the three stars here.
So if you want to read the names in the
three star tier, and we can dig into that one.

Speaker 2 (25:14):
Yeah. So there's a lot of names here, and again
this is like picks ninety one to one, so it
makes sense that it's a big tier. There's Willia Domas,
Ezekiel Tovar, Jeremy Pana. One of these days, I'm going
to say Dante Boschett, I just know it. But Bob Baschett,

(25:35):
Dancy Swanson, zach Netto, Anthony Volpe. I'm really blanking on
like first names. It's funny, Mason Wynn and Savior Edwards.
I think I got all those right. Yeah, I'll think
it a spreadsheet with your surnames, so that that's why
I'm doing that anyway. Yeah, So it's a it's a
thick tier, and I do have some differentiation here, but

(25:55):
I do agree with you, like there is a to me,
there's a gap with a Damas and like the rest
of the names in this tier, and it's funny, he's
dropping a little ap Like a couple of weeks ago,
he was kind of like in he was in the eighties.
Now he's in the mid nineties, so he is falling
off a little. But I do believe the market still

(26:15):
sees that differentiation that you were talking about.

Speaker 1 (26:20):
Yeah, it's it's maybe the market is reacting once they
actually realized that he's in San Francisco and not Milwaukee.
But he is kind of a He's kind of the
Matt Chapman of shortstops in a lot of ways where
I mean, the average is not going to be great.
You'll get probably twenty something home runs, probably more steals

(26:44):
from a Dominas, but not you know, probably teens at best,
and just you know, a solid accumulator is probably the
way I describe a Domas here, and that's that's not
derogatory either that that can be very very helped. So
I don't know that there's much much more to say
on a Damis. You know, he aighte and two park

(27:07):
is better for right handed hitters, but it's still on
balance very much a pictures park. So it's going to
put a cap on the power numbers for sure.

Speaker 2 (27:18):
Yeah, I wonder about the steals, like I wonder how
much of that was him running because it's about, you know,
going for a contract. I don't think they'll disappear completely,
but I just don't see a repeat there. And that's
the thing about him, which is, well, you know, if
he's like a twenty three fifteen hitter with a lowish average,
that's really good. But that's clearly where the differentiation is

(27:41):
with him and the shortsteps we were talking about earlier.

Speaker 1 (27:46):
I want to hear more. I'm not really convinced by Tovar,
and you're not getting a lot of steals from him either.
I know it's the cores factor, but I think the
sort of underlying metrics are not great for Tovar. I
have a little low in this tier, but i'd love
to hear a case a pro to of Oar case,
if you have one to make.

Speaker 2 (28:07):
I mean a little bit. I think a lot of
it is is cores, and I hate it, Like I
don't necessarily like drafting a player like this, particularly at
this price, because yes, it does put you sort of
in this weird position where you're like, yeah, I know
that he's not necessarily like a good real life hitter.

(28:30):
I mean, the one thing I will say about him,
and this is kind of a pro like if I
don't like players like this, when when there are like Rockies,
when their road numbers are ugly, Towar's road numbers are
not thirteen home runs, you know, to sixty one batting average,
same number of home runs at home, slightly better average
at home. But he's so the two things for him

(28:52):
is that one I could see the numbers at home
improving a little bit, just because that often happens at cores.
And I think the other thing too, You know, you're
kind of telling you about again youth versus like you know,
players being older twenty two years old. You know, a
season where he did improve his WRC plus jump from

(29:12):
seventy two to ninety five. You know, yeah, still below
average in real life, but kind of the thing you
want to see, right, like from a younger player. He
did hit the ball harder, he did see like it
did again Nico blap, and his heart hit one up
a little bit as barely right, went up slightly like
just just the kind of improvements I want to see

(29:34):
from a younger player, and I think that's that's what
I kind of like about Tobar is that I wouldn't
be surprised to see and I understand why the projections
are kind of having him slip a little bit, but
I wouldn't be surprised to see the opposite, like slightly
more growth. And it's essentially what we're talking about with
a Damas. So yes, the Damas is better, but if

(29:54):
you're talking about a player and a better hitting environment
who has a like about the same home run, fewer steals,
but a better batting average because of the cores bump,
I think that's what you could be seeing in to
for that that's my case.

Speaker 1 (30:07):
Yeah, No, I have a I have an allergy to
picking players that have like a sub three hundred.

Speaker 2 (30:17):
I get I get it.

Speaker 1 (30:18):
I not not just you know, not even in non
obp leagues. I just think that caps that plus the
bad lineup he's in is going to cap runs the
RBI And uh, I don't know. I mean, I think
everything you say is true, and I think there's a
pretty high floor, but it's just not the kind of
player that that I tend to gravitate towards.

Speaker 2 (30:39):
I mean, I get it. But you know, also this,
this is the difference between you know, the whatever round
he's going in here, I think the the ninth round
and the players who were talking about earlier, Like you're
ready the point where you're willing to accept some minor
flaws for all the other good stuff that you're getting.
But but yeah, you are right, Like I look at
the Rockies projected line up, and it's like, good, good grief.

(31:01):
It's it's not pretty like it's it's pretty. It's pretty
bad is what it is.

Speaker 1 (31:08):
So we got a group of players throughout the rest
of the three starsier who a lot of them profile
there variations on a theme I think, and so Jeremy Paanya, Bobashet,
Dancy Swanson, Zach Netto. You read them all, but I'm
gonna read them again, Anthony wilt Be, Mason Winning, Xavier Edwards,

(31:28):
And you know it's like, do you have do you
move the sliders a little bit up on power, a
little bit up on speed, a little bit up on average?
I yeah, I'm curious where you see any differentiation in
this tier and for what reasons? On what players?

Speaker 2 (31:47):
Well, so a couple of things the players I like here,
I like Jeremy Payana, and I like him because I
could see him like putting up a twenty twenty if
he improves the power even a little bit. And he's
kind of at that right age where he could take
advantage of the Crawford boxes and do exactly that. And

(32:07):
the other player like is Zach Netto, but I like
him because this is an eye aga in leagues with
I l's where you can just stash him on an
IL and not to worry about your reserve list, and
you can just keep him as long as possible. I
think he's a great stash even if he does start
the season late. So those are the two players I'm
kind of targeting here. The Swanson I'm neutral on. I

(32:32):
could take him and leave him. I think he's fine.
The other four I have questions on, and you know,
we don't have to go over all four of them.
But really with Bishett, the challenge I have there is
that he has to do one of two things, Like
he either has to like run again, which I'm not
sure he will, or and if he's not going to run,

(32:53):
he's going to have to go back to being healthy
and providing volume. I mean, he could do both those things,
but he's going to do at least one of those
to kind of get get his value back. He certainly could.
He's young, but the trend linsing before the injuries last
year were just pointing in the wrong direction.

Speaker 1 (33:09):
Yeah, Bashet's one that you know rationally. I know that
there are reason why, you know, the projections would have
him around here, but I just feel like that that
and I know it was it was an injury related collapse,
but boy was it some kind of collapse. And it's
hard to know where he's gonna sort of find his

(33:30):
level if he even manages to keep his job. And
I don't know that I want to. I certainly don't
think I want to make him my starting shortstop. Curious
about what you think of Volpi, because I do, like
I mean, he has some of the same problems, the
on base problems as as Tovar does, but he does
have that lineup, he does have that park, and I

(33:52):
think in this tier maybe he has the highest well
maybe except for Edwards, but maybe the highest sort of
power steals upside. Are you what what are your hesitations
on Volpi?

Speaker 2 (34:03):
Well, so I don't know which hitter he's going to be,
so his rookie year in twenty twenty three, he was
trying to hit for power and I don't if you
remember this, Like last spring he specifically said, I'm going
to try for more contact, I'm going to try to
improve my approach, and he did. You know, he jumped
his average up from two on nine to two forty three,

(34:24):
which which is certainly an improvement, but we saw the
effect in power. He had twelve home runs in a
park where that that's kind of almost unless you your
DJ LMEYO and your grand ball rates extreme that that's
kind of surprising where it's like, and that's the thing,
like his flyball rate dip from thirty seven percent to
twenty nine percent, so he could hit for power, like

(34:48):
we know he did it his rookie year. I just wonder, like,
can he be a hitter. I like the projections and
I think they're sort of optimistic, just in the sense
where it's like, well, yeah, he could be on eighteen
twenty eight hitter for sure with a two forty average.
But that's telling me that he combined both things and
everything came together. He's young, and I don't want to

(35:11):
simply discount him and PRAI Stobar and just you know,
make this a simplistic you know, well, one's young and
I like him, and one's young and I dislike him.
But I just it's just kind of the inconsistency and approach,
and I'm just not sure what we're gonna get. And
I don't want to buy a vote at price and
then have him hit like twelve home runs again and
feel like, yay, like I didn't really get what I

(35:32):
was like hoping for here at this price.

Speaker 1 (35:35):
Okay, that's fair.

Speaker 2 (35:36):
In the ru I mean I will, I will say,
looking at him, I might be underestimen because that runs
total last year even you know, the two ninety three
round base kind of points to your lineup thing like that.
That's nice. And if he can get on base even
at like a three three ten, three fifteen clip, he
could score more.

Speaker 1 (35:54):
Yeah. And I think even if you get like it's
not a stretch really too, if you say, well, fifteen
fifteen thirty with a two forty average and eighty to
ninety runs, like, I don't know, you know, I sort
of like that player in the in the ninth round,
I probably yeah, I mean I definitely would take him

(36:15):
ahead of Tovar do you have any thoughts. We did
talk a little bit about Netto before we got on tonight,
and I think we both like him. You pointed out
that we really just have a lot of uncertainty about
his injury and when he will be back. So based
on skills, I think I have him, you know, near

(36:36):
the top of this this tier. And if we knew
he was going to play like one hundred and fifty games,
which it doesn't look likely, I think I would I
would bump him up a few spots because the way
he finished last year was was pretty pretty great on
a on a you know, sinking ship of a team,
and I like him to sort of fill all the categories,

(37:01):
assuming that shoulder heals properly.

Speaker 2 (37:05):
Yeah, it's really funny because even like that, even with
the projections kind of lopping off like about a month,
a little under a month's worth of games, he's still
projected like twenty twenty by almost every model. And that's
kind of what it is, which is like, well, that's
the appeal, which is even if he misses time, I
could still get a twenty twenty player. Like that's very appealing.

(37:29):
I think the tough thing about him is just that
we don't know how long the recovery's going to take,
like any kind of setback. If he's back on June
first instead of like April fifteenth or May first, it's
just such a black box. There's so many questions. And
then if he is recovering from an injury, will he
run less? And remember like before last year he didn't

(37:49):
really run like that. That was a big surprise, like
ten steals in the miners in twenty twenty two, eleven,
and twenty twenty three. I'm not saying that he can't run.
He showed he did it last year. What I am
saying is it's like, well, the combination I'm coming back
from an injury just means he might have a little
bit more of a yellow or red light. So I
like him a lot, but this is very much a

(38:11):
spring training call. And I will say like, and I've
noticed his prices is kind of also very slowly and
steadily climbing, because I think people are noticing what you noticed,
which is you know, I'm checking here. Yeah, he's at
like one ninety nine. He was outside of he was
in the two hundreds like a little while ago. So

(38:33):
people are looking at and find like yeah, like maybe
he's worth considering in the thirteenth round, but there definitely
is a reluctance, and I get it, particularly in an
FBC formats or draft and hold, where it's like, well,
if I take him and it's two months of a
zero that that's kind of rough in a draft and
hold where you're gonna have injuries you don't even know
about yet.

Speaker 1 (38:53):
Yeah, and to your point about the steals, I mean
it really. I think projection systems really are throwing darts
when it comes to projected steels, especially for someone who,
as he said, didn't run in the minors and then
you know, didn't run in his first half season with
the Angels and then busted out for thirty steels. Of

(39:14):
course that's going to be the most recent and most
heavily weighted data point, but it's easy to see a
world where he goes down to like ten steals twelve
steels if he's favoring that shoulder. Okay, so I think
we've done with the three stars, unless there's anyone else
you want to Yeah.

Speaker 2 (39:36):
Well, I just want to talk about Edwards a little bit.
So I hate comps, but I kind of get the
nicky Lopez vibes here a player and Edwards was better,
not great, I know, but that's the thing Edwards. Well,
I don't want to completely, you know, go down this
road because Edwards had a better debut and you know,

(39:58):
Edwards was better than miners. But yes, it is the
not great bop thing where a player who hit for
great averages in the minors and make great contact and
people including me, by the way, I like Nikki Lopez
after his breakout and you know year in twenty twenty
twenty one, was like, yes, he can make it work.
He's a great contact hit or you know, he's he

(40:19):
can hit three hundred, he can steal bases, and he
did not make it work. And I think the lesson
here is that yes, batyball metrics can be overstated, but
when you are that low on your batyball metrics and
when everything's blue and you're near the bottom and you
really really like need to be like the outlier of outliers,

(40:41):
and could Edwards do that? He could, I just don't
want to pay for that where he's going. And some
of this is the steels thing, Like I feel like
there's too much people knocking Louisa Rise for being a
one or like a one and a half category player
if you include runs, and then people don't do that

(41:02):
with with stolen based guys. They pushed them up and
they pushed them head of a rise, and it's like,
well pick a lane, like if you're gonna do it
with a rise, like do that with players like Edwards, like,
don't overdraft them. And I think you were telling you
about this like offline with me. As far as steals,
you can find steels the for Asian pools. So I
don't like paying the premium on Edwards if he tanks

(41:24):
because I just feel like, well, if I miss steels
in my draft, I'll I'll just go out and get
some later.

Speaker 1 (41:29):
I mean, I'm not saying that that this is a
perfect comp but it really is kind of asked for
Ruie's effect right where you know you've gotten that far
down in the draft and you're like, oh, this is
my one knee trick to make up ground and steals.
He only played half a season, and that to me
says and you know, with the battle ball metrics that
you point out only one home run in three hundred

(41:51):
and three plate appearances, I think the league's going to
catch up to him and you know, knock the bat
out of his hands. I'll a Billy Hamilton, and I
don't know. I mean the average is is he's he
does make contact, and you know that might booy the
average because of the speed, but I don't think he's

(42:13):
going to come close. I mean even the projections in
the two eighties, I don't know. Man, that's that's pretty optimistic. Yeah,
who doesn't hit the ball very hard.

Speaker 2 (42:22):
The expected batting average last year was two fifty two,
and again I don't like to the expected slug was
like one hundred points lower than what he slugged. So
this is similar to like like you know, like fit
back in the day with pitchers. I don't like to
overanalyze it. I think people put too much scrutiny on it,
and people do the same with bat ball metrics. But

(42:43):
when there's this much of a gap between what was
expected and what happened to me, that's a big red
flag where it's like, well, yeah, see he might not
hit two fifty two, but there there's a crash and
burn potential here that it doesn't exist as opposed with
the hitter, where say the bat averages like twenty points
or twenty five points off, where you're like, well, like, okay,

(43:04):
that's variance. If it's like seventy six points off that
that's that's a red flag for me.

Speaker 1 (43:11):
It's funny because I have a I have an XBA
point to make on a player in the next year.

Speaker 2 (43:17):
But I think I I think I know who it is,
So let's move on to that tier. It's it's a
smaller tier. So the two star tier that I have
four players here, said Don Rafaela, Trevor's Story, Tyler Fitzgerald,
and Carlo, our old friend, Carlos Carreas. So I think
I know who you want to make your point on.

(43:37):
So I'm curious to hear it.

Speaker 1 (43:40):
So don't look at Trevor Story's stat line. Look look
at his his XBA, and I'm just going to give
you his XBAS.

Speaker 2 (43:49):
This is not the player, by the way, I thought
you were going to.

Speaker 1 (43:52):
Okay, go ahead, I think okay. So this is with
the caveat that in. You know, he was out for
parts of many years, so these are not equivalent years
in terms of bat ball number of vat of balls.
But the XBA from twenty eighteen to the present. See
if you notice a pattern to sixty six, two sixty two,

(44:14):
fifty three, two forty five to twenty one, two ten,
one ninety three. I don't think it's coming back for Trevor.
I I don't. I'm getting better about because I did
draft Trevor Story, I think in in TGFBI last year.

Speaker 2 (44:34):
And uh a couple of leagues too.

Speaker 1 (44:38):
But this is me saying to myself, you know, there
just might not be even a dead cat bounce for
players who have who have lost it. So can consider
me very very bearish on Story this year.

Speaker 2 (44:56):
Yeah. So I think what's really tough about Story is
that so much of the problem with him is injury, right, So.

Speaker 1 (45:08):
Well, if you think he's going to be healthy, right right,
that's so that's that's the problem.

Speaker 2 (45:13):
Which is so in twenty twenty four you missed a
giant chunk of time due to a shoulder shoulder surgery,
and I mean really he missed like almost the whole
season like last year. So in twenty twenty three he
missed a big chuck of time with elbow you know issue,

(45:33):
and twenty twenty two he didn't miss nearly as much time,
but he missed like two little you know, he had
a wrist tracture at a heel contusion. So this is
kind of the problem, which is like, yes, you can
say that his data ball metrics stunk because of the injuries,
but the other side of that is like, well, like,
so he's going to be thirty two years old. He

(45:54):
has not been healthy since he was a Rocky, which
goes way back to twenty twenty one. What's really weird
is that his like WRC plus in twenty twenty two
and twenty twenty four is better than it wasn't his
last year as a Rocky, but as good as a
place as Fenway is to hit, it's like not that good.

(46:16):
So yeah, I think the thing you're hanging your hat
on here with story in this tier is that he
steals and like healthier. No, he's been running, but I
wonder if he should run right because is it just
another is it a path for him to keep getting hurt?
So yeah, like he feels like a player where I
would potentially take him here, but not necessarily be happy

(46:40):
about it. I'd be like, well, like okay, and frankly,
going back to our second Base podcast, I think there's
several this is your third mill infielder at this point
in a fifteen team draft, I think i'd rather take
unless I had a really low risk team. I'm like,
you know what, let's take a Trevor Story risk I
need some steals the hell. I think I'd rather take

(47:02):
a safer second basement in this pocket of the draft
than than take Story for sure.

Speaker 1 (47:08):
Yeah, and possibly a multi position player if you can,
if you.

Speaker 2 (47:13):
Can hard to find.

Speaker 1 (47:15):
But yeah, you probably thought I was gonna talk about
Timer Fitzgerald.

Speaker 2 (47:19):
I did because he is I mean different player, but
I mean he's similar to Edwards. And then when you
look at those the averagers, the expected average, and the
slug versus the expected slug, it's it's extreme. And yes,
he launch aangled. You know, we talked about Matt Chapman
last week. Fitzgerald did even more so be in a

(47:41):
smaller sample. I mean he launchangled his way to extreme success.
I'm just very wary about like pop up players like this,
and I had a lot of Fitzgerald last year. I
was very happy about it. But the projections look really
good outside of the average. I'm just I kind of
ranked around his ADP. I'm kind of with the market

(48:02):
where it's like, yeah, I don't I don't really buy it.

Speaker 1 (48:07):
I don't either. You know, he came out of the
gates very hot. I will say, the speed is real.
The speed is very real. But you need him to
play pretty much every day, you know, to get to
that sort of like twenty high twenties to thirty steals,
and I think you're going to be sacrificing in a

(48:28):
lot of other categories. And moreover, I think, you know, again,
we talked about this with some other Giants players. We
don't know what the Posy regime is going to be like.
But I do believe that they will find someone else
to play second base if if he really really struggles.

(48:50):
And you know, they have Casey Schmidt, they have some
you know, guys that they can kind of rotate in
from triple A. So I don't think his job is
guaranteed by any stretch. And you know, I think, yeah,
as you say, there's just a lot of risk in
the hitting profile that, yeah, I don't even know if
you're going to get to those those steals at the

(49:10):
end of the day.

Speaker 2 (49:11):
The other thing, too, is like there aren't a lot
of teams where I would look at a right handed
hitter and and worry about him being in a full
blown platoon. But with the Giants, I would worry about
that where if things go sideways for him. He's mostly
playing against lefties, and it's like, well, like okay, but
that that's that's a really tough roster fit, like anywhere

(49:32):
outside of only.

Speaker 1 (49:37):
Anyone, I don't know Korea, is you know, that sort
of challenging player because when he played, he was he
was great again, kind of a four category player but
still hits the ball really hard.

Speaker 2 (49:53):
Yeah, he's like a port van Seeger is what he.

Speaker 1 (49:55):
Is, exactly exactly who misses more time than Unfortunately.

Speaker 2 (50:01):
And Raphael, I I don't, I don't trust uh just
such a bad like real life here, they caught up
to him very quickly. There are some talented minor leaguers
kind of on the way to Boston. I know he
has like a big long contract, but I mean it's

(50:23):
like as far as the annual value, you know, average
ony value, it's not really a lot of money. So
I could see him getting pushed aside into a part
time role pretty easily. And I just even at this price,
I don't I don't really want to chase that.

Speaker 1 (50:37):
Yeah, I mean the the actual this is this is
the case where the real life player is much less
appealing than the fantasy player. And I think, you know,
the Red Sox can move on from a two seventy
four OVP and a seventy nine WRC plus pretty quickly,
especially with with is it Christian Campbell and the Roman Anthony?

(51:02):
Is that his name? The yeah, Roman Anthony, one prospect.

Speaker 2 (51:08):
Yeah. And that's the thing. That's the thing too, is
that if this was oddly enough, if Raphaela was a
White Sox, I might like him more where I would
look at him and be like, well, like he's going
to play like they don't have anyone else. This is
sort of that first division second division thing where it's
like on the second division team, like you know what, whatever,

(51:29):
Like I'll hold my nose. I'll hope the average isn't
kill me. I'll get a fifteen to fifteen season. I'll
get a bargain. Yeah. This is not a this is
not a warm and fuzzy for me. Like I'm you know,
I'm looking at on base percentage for for sure stops
with minimum of you know, three hundred plate appearances. He
was second to last. Only Orlando Arcia was was worse

(51:49):
like it's it could all really go badly really fast.

Speaker 1 (51:54):
So I'm just I just want to look at just
quickly looking at ADP this tier, and I'm kind of
assuming that. Okay, so the story is the lowest, but
right next to Krea, and this might be you know,
this might be a situation again thinking about last year,
are getting Korea because he fell, he just kept falling,

(52:16):
And of all the players in this tier, that's the
likeliest way I could see you know, getting one. It
would be Korea because he's just been completely cross off
of everyone's draft sheet.

Speaker 2 (52:29):
Yeah. And the thing I think the reason I have
him lower this year and last year I was well
head of the market to shore, I'm kind of at
market price on him. It's nothing against him, but it
does have more to do with the build. I think
because of our experience last year and having like Schwerber
and Kara and a couple other players that didn't really run, remember,

(52:49):
like we we had to kind of like catch up
and steals, which we did. But I don't necessarily want
to like start out in that position. So I think
that's why I have a story ahead of Korea. Like
I share my con I share my concerns very much
with him, But I'd rather have the potential of a
well rounded player as opposed to like a zero in steals,

(53:12):
particularly because yes, create a great first half, but I
feel like if the injuries are coming, you don't necessarily
know like when they're coming, and I don't want to
just assume, oh, great, I'm gonna get you know, a
great April through the end of June from Korea and
then nothing. I mean that could happen in May and
then happens if Crey's heart on May first and he's

(53:33):
going to be out for two months, are you keeping
him on your roster? Yeah, that's probably not Like like so, yeah,
I get it, like when he when he plays, he's
he's really great or he has potentially really great and
he's not that old. He'll he'll be thirty in baseball age.
But yeah, we we kind of know the pitfalls with him,

(53:54):
like great real life player, but just sort of a
frustrating fantasy player.

Speaker 1 (54:00):
No, that is true, and it really is a different
proposition if you have aisle slots versus NFBC, where you don't.

Speaker 2 (54:07):
I will say, if you have a roster where you
already have like a lot of speed, and you know
in particular, like let's say, for example, you took Hoziero
Mirrors or Gesism in the first two rounds and you're
one of the few teams that it steals at third
base and you've got all this speed. I think taking
a player like Korea late is fine because you have

(54:27):
that speed in all likelihood locked up or a lot
of what you need. And it's like, you know what,
I'm just going to take the value here because I
have the speed for sure. So there's definitely like some
roster like machinations going on at this point in the draft, which.

Speaker 1 (54:43):
Takes us to the last segment of the show, the
one Star and Blow.

Speaker 2 (54:50):
Yeah, so I'm going to read the blow this week
since there's only one name one star tier, just how
it worked out. So there's one name in the one
start to here seven, the zero star I'm going to
out of all of them off. So the one Star
is Luis Anghelo Kunya. The zero Star is Hasse and Kim,
Brian Rocchio, brooks Lee, Trey Sweeney, another old friend, Ernie Clement,

(55:13):
JP Crawford, and Jacob Wilson. So I'll I think I
went first last week, So it's your turn to go first.
Who do you like among those names or are you
going off the board?

Speaker 1 (55:28):
The board is yeah, the board is pretty bad, but
off the board might even be worse.

Speaker 2 (55:33):
It thins out like That's the thing about as Gray's
as the top. I think that's why I was alluding
to in the two stars here. I think for a
lot of teams to play at your middle infield slot
is a second basement because it really thins out here
quickly unless you take two short stops, you know, in
the top, one fifty or one sixty, and you're doing
it that way.

Speaker 1 (55:55):
I was tempted to select our old friend Ernie Clement,
but I am going to and this is a very
tepid endorsement. Let me just say right off the bat,
I'm going with someone who has a job, who steals,
steals some bases, and an average that won't kill you
switch hitter, and that's Brian Rocchio of The Guardians. Again,

(56:19):
I don't feel great if I'm at am I territory.
There's probably going to be a second basement that I
like more. But I think there's a chance. And he's
young as well. Again, I think it's it's it's on
the He's not a great hitter, he doesn't hit the
ball hard, but he's very fast, fast, dish, but he

(56:42):
will steal some basses. And I don't see him being
supplanted as far as his job at least early in
the season. How's that for a tepid endorsement of Rochio?
Pretty tepid.

Speaker 2 (56:55):
It is tepid, But I really feel that unless you're
you're going to you know, lie, you almost have to.
They could a tap an endorsement been here. So I'm
going to go be you know, because I put him here.
I'm gonna put my I guess, relatively speaking, my moneyment
where my mouth is, and that is with Louis Song Heelicunya.

(57:17):
So the reason I have and someone has explained my
rationale for having in the one star tiers. So currently
on the depth chart, he's showing up on the Mets bench,
and I think that's ridiculous. I think one of two
things will happen. He will either start in the minors
or he will be at least in a job share.
And we kind of saw, like in a very brief
glimpse like what he could do last year, and the

(57:39):
steals give him a really nice floor. I just look
at the Mets right now, and yes, they could still.
By the way, is this a breaking thing? I? Oh,
you know what it's because I'm looking at I think
Fangrafts did a thing where they have last year's depth
chart up and I'm looking at Alonzo. Oh no, it

(58:01):
looks like Peter Alonzo agreed to a two year contract.
So this this is breaking news. On fancis page it
says that two five pet alans as signed a two
year deal. So we're gonna have to scurry to Blue
Sky after this. Uh, after this.

Speaker 1 (58:17):
Let me tell you, by the time you hear this,
it will very much not be a.

Speaker 2 (58:20):
Well, very much. It's it's news to us. So yes,
if for some reason you're you're scared of all the
other news, are living in a cave and this is
where you get all your information. We broke the story. Congratulations,
Oh good job. Anyway, it just showed up.

Speaker 1 (58:35):
I just refreshed and wrote a world and that just
showed up. Two year, fifty four million dollars.

Speaker 2 (58:40):
That makes me very happy. That makes me very happy
as a Mets fan. So anyway, looking at the Mets
like even you know, and even with what's going on there,
I just don't see I don't see Jeff McNeil necessarily
being the reason that Acunya is not going to play,
if that makes any sense. Yes, I know McNeil made

(59:01):
some adjustments. I know that he's been working, was working,
hit him for more power, et cetera, et cetera. But
he just really, realistically, even if he somehow can hit
fifteen to twenty home runs, he realistically is not an
obstacle to Louis to Acunya playing. So I see a
Couna breaking in. I see him getting some playing time.

(59:23):
I see him being somebody who could potentially steal a
bunch of bases. And now that the Mets have Alonzo back,
it's it's a really good lineup. So yeah, I like
Acuna a lot as an outside of the top three
hundred pick to potentially steal a bunch of bases and
maybe do a lot more. Those projections for him that

(59:44):
have like two hundred played appearances, I'd easily take the
over on that.

Speaker 1 (59:48):
M Yeah, and yeah, and if you double those, let's
just say, and get him to four hundred played appearances,
then those projections have him around twenty steals with which
you know, which which is is definitely going to be
something you want to buy into. So yeah, good call,

(01:00:08):
I like it. Go mats Yep.

Speaker 2 (01:00:11):
Yeah, it's funny because outside of Ventos and Akunya, I
generally have been like lukewarm on the Mets, like I'm
kind of looking I think, I said another podcast, I'm
either neutral or lower on all the Mets offensive players
compared to their a DP and and Ventos and Akuny
are the two players I'm I'm ahead of the market

(01:00:32):
on so not not a homer, just like those two players.

(01:01:01):
Thank you for listening to episode three twenty five of
Flags Fly Forever, a Baseball Perspective fantasy baseball podcast. Don't
forget if you have not done so already to please
order the Baseball Perspectives Annual. Also, since it's on the page,
please vote for the twenty twenty five Saber Analytics Conference

(01:01:23):
Research Awards. The voting's open now. You can find the
information on our website. Lots of great writers both from
Baseball Perspectives but from other sites as well. You know
a lot of the names, you know, so we're guys.
Do you vote from somebody or from BP or not?
Like just just go out and vote if you can

(01:01:46):
for my challeng John Heglin, thank you very much. We
may or may not be back next week. We're gonna
discuss it internally, but we will be back with you soon.

Speaker 1 (01:01:53):
Good Night, everybody follow us on Blue sky Flags Fly Forever.
That Pasky, that's social good night. What's what's next week?

Speaker 2 (01:02:06):
Well we could you believers. That's about it.

Speaker 1 (01:15:35):
I'll probably cut this section out, so

Speaker 2 (01:15:37):
You probably should so we don't sound like stupid