Episode 327: LABR, WERF, and Outfield Preview, Chapter 2

Mike and Jon talk about two recent drafts they were in: Mike in the LABR Mixed Draft, and Jon in the WERF draft (one of the leagues in the overal EARTH competition). We make some observations about starters, relievers, and drafting speed. 

Then we get to the second half of our outfield preview, containing a lot of flawed but interesting bats. 

Flags Fly Forever is a Baseball Prospectus podcast. For more fantasy baseball information, visit baseballprospectus.com and click on "Fantasy."

You can find Flags Fly Forever on Bluesky (@flagsflyforever.bsky.social). The hosts of Flags Fly Forever are Mike Gianella(@mikegianella.bsky.social) and Jon Hegglund(@jonhegglund.bsky.social). The producer of Flags Fly Forever is Jon Hegglund. 

Special thanks to the awesome and generous Petite League for permission to use their track "Mets" for the intro and break music. Find their sweet lo-fi indie-pop sounds at petiteleague.com.  

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:20):
Welcome to episode three twenty seven of Flags Fly Forever,
a baseball prospective podcast on Mike Chianella. Over, there's John
Haglund and John it's time or it's almost time. We're
getting there.

Speaker 2 (00:32):
It is happening again. Yeah, we took a week off.
We interrupted our outfield preview, just some scheduling stuff. But
suddenly we're in the middle of draft season. It's a
couple of days from March. We're recording on Thursday evening,

(00:54):
and so we are going to talk about a couple
of drafts that we were in and just observations that
we've had and then get to the remainder of our
outfield previews. So, without further ado, you have participated in
the labor Mixed draft last what couples.

Speaker 1 (01:18):
It was Tuesdays, so two days ago as we record,
and yeah, well I was going to say, and I
was participated in the Wharf w E r F Draft,
which is one of the Earth Leagues on NFBC regional
leagues with analysts and analysts adjacent participants.

Speaker 2 (01:41):
The one I'm in is mostly folks from the Northwest Washington, Idaho, Oregon.

Speaker 3 (01:47):
And that was a week ago Sunday.

Speaker 2 (01:49):
So we've been in the we've been in the fire
of an actual draft. I know some of you have
probably been drafting since like October and November and you're
you're sick perverts, but you know, we don't king shame
on this show. But I think we now having been
in some snake drafts, have some thoughts, right.

Speaker 1 (02:10):
Yeah, I mean, I definitely do you know it's for
me like you said, I don't do I've done some
other leagues, but that this was the first stake draft
fifteen T league that has fully been completed. Like I've
got a slow draft going on right now that's still going.
So yeah, it's always one thing to talk about players
and where to draft them and observations, and you've heard

(02:31):
all those and some of those observations you know later
on the second half of the podcast, and we include
our outfield preview. But yeah, like drafting and putting together
team is really different. One of them, you know, is
a slot you're in, Like I was in the third
slot in Labor, you were in the ten slot on Earth,
so that that obviously changes things a little bit. But
I think the other is you are constructing a team.

(02:53):
You know, we talked about this before we started recording
or before we started the podcast. I think the first few,
at least in terms of my philosophy, it's like, yeah,
I'm just drafting players. I'm looking for value. It doesn't
really matter that much. Look like what I take, like, yeah, sure,
maybe i'll take a closer you know, early ish and
elite like this, but otherwise I'm looking for value. And

(03:13):
then later on though, it's like, well, the theory of
you know, which outfield or middle endfielder doesn't really matter
as much if I need a middle endfielder.

Speaker 2 (03:22):
Sure, yeah, And I think, you know, to talk about
those early rounds, I would just say that an observation
I had, and I think this will change somewhat for
NFBC main event drafts, which you know, we are also
participating in in a few weeks. But I think other

(03:44):
analysts have talked about this in the some of the
podcasts I've listened to, which is that starting pitching seems
to be going a little bit later than it did
last year. And I'm speaking specifically of the second round
and maybe some of the early third round in your

(04:07):
labor draft. At the end of round two there were
only three starters taken.

Speaker 3 (04:13):
There was Tarik.

Speaker 2 (04:14):
Scouble at the twelve for the twelfth pick, there was
Paul Schemes of the turn with the sixteen pick, and
then Zach Wheeler. I'm not going to count, but it
was about the what twenty fifth.

Speaker 1 (04:29):
Pick, Yeah, somewhere there.

Speaker 2 (04:32):
Yeah, And you know the order of those is not
that you know, some some drafts have schemes over Schooble.
Wheeler's kind of unanimously the third picture off the board,
and it actually the next picture drafted was by you,
which was Logan Gilbert in the third round with pick

(04:53):
thirty three. So I don't know, what are you what
are your thoughts? Is this a labor specific phenomenon, or
do you think there's something to the trend that starters
are going a little bit later at least in that
top tier and you know that is that something that.

Speaker 3 (05:12):
Feels different to you this season?

Speaker 1 (05:15):
Well, I again, I've only done the one draft, and
I think some of this sometimes like when people are
reporting podcasts or recording podcasts, they're they're kind of in
you know, they're in their own fields or experience and
there's like, oh, I noticed a trend here. So I
think a lot of it is labor like just the
nature of the way the league is, like it's a
standalone by the way, what WORF is, it's a league

(05:38):
of leagues right like that, Yes, there's an over okay,
so that's.

Speaker 3 (05:41):
Part of it.

Speaker 1 (05:42):
So like when there's not an overall component, that that
changes things a little bit. I think the other point
I heard someone mentioned on podcasts. I want to say
it was jeff Erickson, but I don't remember for sure.
Is that. Yeah, I think it was jeff Or Fred
on the Road of War podcast when they did their recap.
Because we're drafting early and usually labor labor mix actually
toward the middle of the month where we're drafting somewhat

(06:04):
later this year, but even so you get a month
before this season there's almost inevitably spring spring training injuries.
I think that tends to push the prices down to
a little bit because it's like, well, you know, Scott
Piinowski last year drafted code I singa singing got hurt
and womp, womp, Like there it goes like you you've
lost your you know, you've lost your picture and yeah,

(06:25):
that that really stings. Something I'm trying to do here,
by the way, as we're talking, is and I'm trying
to look at at last year's final. So something that's
really interesting here is I it's not really like looking
at the data, it doesn't quite hold up. And yeah,
I'm looking at relievers too, but the numbers are pretty

(06:48):
comparable from from one year to the next. So I'm
not sure if it's really a trend or people are
just kind of seeing what they want to see. So
a lot of it is just labor like a lot
of it's tied to that idea of like, well, there's
not an overall component. I don't need to get like
three starters, you know, like I tend to like doing
in the first seven or eight rounds. I can kind
of wait on a starter. I could take my offense

(07:09):
in the first two rounds. I think we know, we know,
like what once the main event comes, that those prices
will go up just because they do, and that's the
way that contest works.

Speaker 2 (07:21):
Yeah, and I'm thinking about so in my draft, in
the WARF draft, I was picking tenth and then.

Speaker 3 (07:29):
Twenty first.

Speaker 2 (07:30):
With pick twenty one, I took Zach Wheeler, And you know,
we've talked about this, like I think Wheeler is much
closer to Scooball and Skimes than maybe the market does.
Like I think, you know, I actually have Wheeler ahead
of Schemes, and there wasn't another starter for like seven
picks when Garrett Krushet was taken, and then the starter

(07:53):
run didn't really happen and it wasn't even a run,
but there were four starters in the third round, and
then it I picked up in the fourth and fifth rounds,
and you know, I've sort of wondered if I had
made a mistake or if you know, I was, I
was doing the right thing by getting the picture I
wanted it in round two, So yeah, go ahead.

Speaker 1 (08:15):
I think there's something too now, Like to me, I
think there's differentiation. Like I agree with you about Wheeler, right,
I have him behind School and Schemes, but I have
him really close in terms of bids, like he's a
dollar behind both of them, and then I've got Gilbert
three dollars behind Wheeler. So yeah, I see what you're saying.
We might not quite agree, but it's a similar thing.

(08:36):
And that's the other piece too, which is, yes, those
starters later are are there, but I think going down
to Gilbert even and I'm not just saying this as
I took him. There's something about the combination of either
high quality or innings. I know Schemes doesn't have that,
which might be while you have him lower. It's the
quality and quantity of those three of those four pictures

(08:57):
that really jumps out, Like when you get to the
next picture, like after Gilbert, I know some people have
Crochet higher, Like there's innings questions, there's health questions. In
the case of Corbyn Burns, who I think is still
very good, it's like, well, is he the great version
of Corbin Burns or is he just the very good one?
And that's part of it too, Like I look at
some of these pictures in the run you're describing and

(09:17):
it's like, yeah, like I think all of them could
be aces. Like we saw Chris Sale do it last year.
We've seen Jacob de Gram do it in the past.
But are they really aces? Like I think you did
find taking Wheeler. Yeah, see, he's a picture things would
go wrong, but probably one of the safer pictures at
this point on the market. And he has that quality
as well. He's not just the boring innings eater. So

(09:39):
what's your.

Speaker 2 (09:40):
Read then, just to shift to closers, I think, and
again I'm on this is mostly going for memory, but
it feels like the top closers are going a little
bit earlier, if even if the density of starters isn't
quite what it was in the first you know, three rounds,

(10:00):
we're seeing I think we're seeing a Manuel class going
regularly and in the third round like close to the
I have to get current ADP, but the last ADP
I had was he was going about mid third in
your draft. In my draft he went end of second

(10:20):
and in labor the first closure I think was actually
Devin Williams.

Speaker 1 (10:29):
Yeah, it was class and actually Williams, and then then
Williams in the fourth.

Speaker 2 (10:38):
Class a was you know, mid mid third, sixth pick
in the third round.

Speaker 3 (10:46):
I don't.

Speaker 2 (10:46):
I don't know if there is anything to that, and
if there, the feeling is that because I.

Speaker 3 (10:53):
Don't know, it's weird with closures.

Speaker 2 (10:54):
It feels a little in earth this year maybe than
last year, but it still feels like what there's probably about.
I don't know what your ranks have, but off the
top of my head, I'm going to say there's like
about fifteen closers that I would sort of feel comfortable with.

Speaker 1 (11:14):
Yeah, and that's about right for me, Like it's somewhere
in there, and go ahead.

Speaker 2 (11:20):
You had another point, Well, I was just going to say,
do you do you see any reason then for the
top closers being pushed up or again, is this just
sort of something that because it's kind of the reverse
of what usually happens.

Speaker 3 (11:33):
They usually get pushed up.

Speaker 2 (11:34):
As main events season gets underway, but already we're in
these earlier drafts and they seem to already be priced
pretty high.

Speaker 1 (11:41):
Well, so I don't know if this is I think
there's a reason they're getting pushed up, but it's not
really a good reason, and it's that there's such a
saves mentality, and last year only eight closers like save
thirty or more games. So I believe there's a mentality
of ooh, like I have to get my saves. I

(12:01):
have to get my thirty saved closer. Now. Now the
problem with that is that I think what people aren't
realizing is that if fewer relievers are getting thirty saves
and the amount you need to win is lower, like
we're I documented this last year, we're we're leaving a
lot of saves on the table, and even in a
sharply like main event, it's just going to be true
because it's like, well, I can't have every reliever my

(12:23):
reserve lists who might get a save. So that's a
large part of it. So people are chasing that one
category at the expense of others, and they're like, ooh,
class A is the safest, and Diaz is the next
safist and Williams is the next safist, and they're talking
about saves, they're not talking about the picture. Now, there's
a good reason to push up closers potentially, and it's

(12:46):
that the best closers now as a result of the
weakening let's say weakening, but because the starter starts are
putting up fewer innings because the middle keeps getting mushier
and mushier. Last year, four of the top fourteen pitchers
or relievers, so ten starters and four relievers are the
top fourteen. You go back to twenty nineteen, Josh Hater

(13:09):
was the sixteenth best pitcher and the top reliever. So
that's something that's changed where it's like, well, you can
draft a reliever in the third or fourth round, and
in theory gets so much value in all the categories
including saves, that you're really putting yourself kind of in
a nice position. I don't think that's what people are thinking, though.

(13:29):
I think people really have a saves mindset, is what's happening.

Speaker 2 (13:33):
And if they didn't have the same, if they were
thinking more like holistically in terms of multi categories, Emmanuel
Class would probably not be the first closer off the board,
right because he is not elite in strikeouts in particular
compared to you know, pictures like Hater and Edwin Diaz
and Devin Williams, so Mason Miller even Yeah, So okay,

(13:59):
So have you just offhand like, so I'm guessing a
consequence of what you're saying, or maybe I'm just restating
what you're saying in a different.

Speaker 3 (14:08):
Way, is that the nominal closers.

Speaker 2 (14:12):
So say, the picture on a team that is getting
the most saves is getting a lower percentage of that
team's or of the like if you aggregate all say,
let's say hypothetically there are thirty closers, even though I
know some teams will have a committee, that aggregation of
thirty closers is getting a lower percentage of saves with

(14:35):
respect to the total number of saves in the league for.

Speaker 1 (14:38):
The most part, yes, like you have exceptions like Classe
and Ryan Helsley last year, But for the most part,
that's what's happening. And some of what's happening is you know, one,
you know, if you go back like fifteen twenty years,
at this point, you'd have a reliever throw three or
you have a closer three or four days in a row.
You really can't do that anymore. It's so much except

(15:00):
for like and you know, teams want to save you know,
their bullets or whatever. So that's one thing. And then
the second thing is, no, you don't have most teams
don't have someone throwing in the seventh or the eighth
and ninth. I keep hearing people say, oh, the Rays,
you know, use everybody. It's like, no, Pete Fairbanks has
been the closer when he's healthy the last two years.
That's just the way it is. Like it's that there's

(15:21):
no secret sauce there. But teams are a little more
likely to use a guy. We've seen this with the
Mets and Diaz, like use a guy in the seventh
or the eighth or the biggest doubts and they do
that four or five times sure that that's going to
reduce his chances of getting thirty to thirty five saves.
So so that's that's a large part of it is
that I think people aren't really thinking about about this.

(15:43):
I'm trying to find it. I'm trying to find a
link to like put into the podcast notes. Like I
wrote about this, I documents at one point where you
go back ten years, I looked at the top mix
leagues something like eighty five percent of the major saves
were captured. We're down about seventy percent now. It's still like,
you know, it's still a decent number, Like it's not

(16:04):
really that low. But it changes, it should change, and
we approach the category like we shouldn't be looking at
it like I need to get seventy saves to you know,
win my you know, to to win the category. It's like, well,
maybe you do, but you're not going to get them
from two closers. You're going to be getting it from
two closers and some other pictures you use along the way,
and maybe one will be a closer. Sure.

Speaker 2 (16:26):
Yeah, I agree with what you said about the committee idea.
It's almost like there's this thought that if that there's
this like binary state with either there's a full time
closer or it's a committee. When a lot of teams
now it's sort of like an eighty percent closer, right,
I mean, there's still a clear preferred option, you know,
like you mentioned Fairbanks. But on the odd you know,

(16:51):
outing whether it's like you know, too much work recently
or a leverage situation, that closer might not you know,
might there might be one game a week where they're
not working in the ninth, but it's still that's still
the closes, it's not I mean it.

Speaker 1 (17:05):
Could even be two depending on the week and and
you know, through a lot of pitches or whatever. But yeah,
generally speaking, that guy's a closer. I think that's the
other thing too, right like, and we see this with everything,
especially it in April. So to me Tanner Scott is
that brings up he's the closer. And look, maybe if
he could lose a job and he could be bad
and somebody else could do it. There are a lot

(17:26):
of talent or relievers, but I don't think the Dodgers
spent what was a seventy two million over four years
on him for him to be in in this like
hybrid role. I think he's mostly the closer, but he
could also save twenty twenty five games and still be
the closer, because it's kind of how like Bullpen's work now,
like they if someone saves a game a week, they're

(17:47):
gonna save twenty six games, and that that's kind of
a normal total. But in what I was saying before,
we could have a situation in April where Scott saves
a game and Yates saves a game and somebody else
saves the game and everybody panics, right, it was like
we see, I told you Tanner Scott's not the closers. Like, no,
it doesn't really prove anything. It just proves that the
Dodgers use a lot of different people for whatever reason,

(18:09):
Like not because Tanner Scott isn't the closer.

Speaker 2 (18:13):
I still think and you know, I'm not inside clubhouses,
you know, like like you know Saras or other you know,
other reporters. But it just seems to me that, you know,
the culture of the game is such that even as
sort of data driven front offices will it will sort

(18:35):
of construct teams in such a way that you know
that the role of the closer is de emphasized that
leverage is emphasized more. I feel like there's this just
magnetic pull, you know, too, for players to want to
know their roles, for managers to want to know whom
to call in what situation. And I just think that

(18:56):
even in teams that you know, maybe in the front office,
they they encourage a committee approach, but I feel like
once you're in the dugout, you still want a set
closer for the most part.

Speaker 1 (19:08):
Yeah. I also I also think that there's another phenomenon too,
which is not that you have as many like multiating relievers,
but there's something to be said for I noticed a
lot of closers or pitchers who typically are going to
throw fifteen twenty pitches like commonly in an inning, and
then you've got your relievers who are a little more
durable or can go deeper in the game and the

(19:29):
seventh and the eighth And that kind of makes sense, right,
because that's just the way things are aligned, and that's
that to me, is part of it too. So Yeah,
we actually did a reliever podcast here. We said we
didn't want to do one, but yeah, to your point,
I think it's fine. You can draft saves how you want.
It's fine and to go back to labor compared to
like were for other standalon les. Like something I noticed

(19:52):
is that at the beginning of the draft people were
being aggressive on closers. But one of two mistakes I
feel like I made is that, like I took Ryan
Press in the I'm trying to go back and look
at the round here that it was. I think it
was the it was earlier. I thought Gee as the problem.
It was like the eleventh round, and I think Ryan
Presley is fine, Like I think he'll be okay. I

(20:12):
know some people don't agree, but there was a gap
after him, and there were some other relievers later that
I was like, yeah, I probably could have used that
pick on something else rather than take Presley and just
taking a different reliever where it's like, well, you know,
maybe I'm getting a handful fewer saves or maybe I'm
getting a slightly shakier situation, but I didn't need to

(20:33):
stretch there. And I think that's kind of the lesson
if you're in a standalone league, which is sure, take
your first closer like I did, Like I took Kellsley
in the fifth round, Like take that closer relatively early,
but you can wait, like you don't need to take
two closers like upfront. And that's something a change in
labor too. Last year there were two managers who did
like a three four like kind of double tap. And

(20:54):
it's just that thing where even if those relievers work out,
they have to be class or close to it because
otherwise you're giving up value with with those picks.

Speaker 2 (21:03):
Yeah, definitely. I I did the same thing and where
if I panicked a little bit and took Fairbanks in
the tenth, it was probably about round or two early,
and then a bunch of closers went off a little later,
and I thought, yeah, I would have been okay with Presley,
or I would have been okay with uh, you know,

(21:25):
Trevor McGill a little bit later. But you know, you
it's you're your.

Speaker 1 (21:32):
Floor, your floor though, like looking at your draft, like
your your draft boards up, like your floor came up
faster than mine. Like that that was it wasn't frustrating,
but like looking back, it's like, gee, like you know,
I could have had, like, you know, look at some
of these relievers, Like I could have had somebody I liked,
like two or three rounds later, Like there was just
a there was just a weird gap. And you know

(21:54):
part of it too. You can't beat yourself up too
much because you don't know what you don't know. And
it worked the other way, like if I didn't take
Presley and there was a reliever run and I'm like, oh, great,
Like now I'm dipping into like a bullpen. I don't like,
or like a job situation that's up in the air,
and that it's like great, now I've got one closer
and I'm behind the eight ball and I either have
to choose a risky bullpen or I just have to

(22:15):
go with with one closer. I would actually rather do
the ladder in that situation, but it's still frustrating. So yeah,
I think it is because you have other observations about
your draft, because we could talk about relievers all night,
but you know.

Speaker 2 (22:27):
I actually want to It's about your draft, actually, okay,
and then after this maybe we can move on to
the outfielders.

Speaker 1 (22:34):
Sure.

Speaker 2 (22:35):
So we were actually texting during your draft a little bit.
I didn't want to bother you too much because I
know you were you were in the zone. But let
me just read your your first several offensive players and
you playing along at home can you can detect a
pattern here? So we've got Aaron Judge in the first round,

(22:58):
Austin Ryan in the second round, Rooker in the fourth round,
Mark Biento's in six, down to Sha Langliers in nine,
Carrie Carpenter in ten.

Speaker 3 (23:11):
You drafted a lot.

Speaker 2 (23:12):
Of power really without much speed. And you know, I
I mean obviously you knew what your situation was, but
we briefly exchanged some text about it, and you know,
you said, well, you know, I'm aware, you know this
watch you know, I'll be sort of.

Speaker 3 (23:34):
Figuring that out.

Speaker 2 (23:35):
And then in the next few rounds you got or
your next three offensive players were Nico Horner, Zach Netto,
and Cedric Mullins. And what struck me was, now, sure
Horner and Netto, are you know injury concerns? Neither might
probably won't start the season. They will start season on

(23:55):
the il. But you you short up your speed pretty
quickly in rounds after round ten, and it just made
me realize that there's more speed late than maybe in
previous years. I mean, do you agree with that observation?

Speaker 1 (24:14):
I do, And so I think something there's something there
that's happening too, which is the speed culture has really changed, right,
there's so much more speed. But what's interesting about that,
this is something also document not last winter, but the
winter before, is that it's not a situation like it's

(24:35):
not like Vince Coleman's stealing one hundred bases for example,
like you don't have or even Billie Hamilton a few
years ago, for people who are not as old as
we are. It's just a situation where it's more balanced.
So as a result, like yes, Eli de la Cruz
is amazing and great and if you can get him,
you know, wonderful, But there's so much speed to kind

(24:58):
of be had, like throughout the d app that you
can fill in. And additionally there's going to be like
guys like Victor Robas who we picked up last year,
coming through via free agency. I'm not saying to you know,
not worry about it at all, but that's precisely it.
Like you, I don't think you have to feel like
and I heard, you know, so many people kind of

(25:18):
talking about this on their own like podcasts or articles
or what have you. I think they might have looked
at the draft like, oh no, it's six round, I
have three power hitters. I don't have any speed, so
I really need to draft speed. I looked at it like, well, one, no,
I still want the best player on the board, and
two I can make that adjustment later. And again this

(25:41):
goes back to labor being a trading league. I can
always make a trade, and because it's not like an
NFBC overall, I can always At the end of that,
I say, well, you know what, these these quasi injured
guys like didn't work out. You know Malls is in
a platoon or you know this guy's doing this whatever,
I'll just don't care. I will say that. Other thing
that did happen, unfortunately is I was looking at Josh

(26:04):
Lowe's min Max and I got I got site by
Mike Potter's or Fangrafts. I would have taken him over
Carry Carpenter. That would have changed look like quite a bit.
And you know which is one of those things like
I took Langoliers in the ninth that just felt I
love love this year, Don't get me wrong, but that
felt early. That was like one that would have been
won twenty three. And I'm like, yeah, that feels really

(26:25):
early for him. But that's that's a problem with Snake draft.
I had to wait all those picks, and I didn't
think he would go, but that's always the risk.

Speaker 2 (26:34):
Yeah, and you know your point about a standalone league,
and you know, having the option to dump the category
is certainly different. But I even for main event or
overall competition leagues, I do feel like, you know, so
just to go to the first couple of rounds, like
I'm looking at the turn of the one two turn

(26:56):
in labor so picks thirteen through eighteen, or Julia Rodriguez,
Fernando Tatis, Jackson Turio, Paul Skein's justism, Jordon Alvarez, and
I'm sort of thinking about, okay, someone like Churio versus Jordon, right,
that maybe the play there is to say, look, let

(27:24):
me just get the well rounded here. And I'm not
saying Trio is not well rounded, and so maybe it's
a poor comparison, but certainly he doesn't have the power
of Jordon. He probably isn't gonna have the average.

Speaker 3 (27:35):
Or the RBI. But you know, just knowing, like I
think there is a kind of pushing up of speed
in the in.

Speaker 2 (27:42):
The early rounds, yeah, when maybe the landscape just doesn't really.

Speaker 3 (27:48):
Call for that. This year, I don't know.

Speaker 1 (27:51):
Well, here, here's a side point. So this is another
thing I hear when I listen to recaps of drafts.
People draft off projections. I don't think there's necessarily anything
wrong with that, and it's in some ways it's a
good approach, but in other ways I feel you box
yourself in a little bit. So and I'm not maligning
He's a great player. He had a great year last year.

(28:13):
He won both like Laburn to out Rudy Gamble took
Lane Thomas and some of two as he's on the
wheel so it's tough for him. But he took Lane
Thomas at the beginning of the tenth round and rounds
later in the fourteenth I took Cedric Mullins. I look
at these two players, and yes, I know Thomas is
projected to be a full time player, but in terms

(28:34):
of the projections, I look at these two players, I
kind of scratched my head and I'm like, what is
what is the real difference? Like yeah, like, if anything,
I think Mullins, you know, I'm kind of looking here.
If I read you the two projections, you'd probably be like, huh,
Like I don't see much of a difference. Except for
you know, some runs and some RBI because again, Thomas

(28:57):
is projected to play more. Averagers are kind of saying, which,
given the average, I might hurt a little bit more
with Thomas than it does with Mullins. And let's see,
I'm just looking. I see like any like fifteen, like
twenty seven for Mullins Thomas, like nineteen like or eight sixteen,
twenty three. So yeah, it's just one of those things

(29:19):
where I think when you're drafting off projections, it's like, ooh,
I have to get steals. I'm falling behind in the
category I'm supposed to be here by this round of
the draft. I think you're doing a disservice to yourself,
and especially again in a standalone league, like you're just like, no,
just just get the best player, like kind of follow
your instincts. Like I like later on is when I

(29:39):
was taking someone like Tyler Fitzgerald because I'm like, well, like,
I need speed. I don't really love Tyler Fitzgerald, but
I need a mill infielder and I want to get
that speed. And even Jacob young way at the back end,
it's like, yeah, at this point, he's kind of just
a nice guy. To have as my like bench outfielder,
where if I'm light on speed and somebody's hurt, I'll
just stick him in and hope for a few steals.

Speaker 2 (30:00):
You know, for a couple of years I did draft
from projections. They you know, I wouldn't do the projections myself,
but I would, you know, generally, take get a set
of projections and you know, tweak, tweak some of them
here and there in ways that I thought we're we're accurate.

(30:20):
And the the thing about drafting from the projections when
you when you fill in your your your projection, the
other you fill in the stats for the rest of
the league, and you keep this like running you know
the running standings and you know you're running sort of
rank in each category.

Speaker 3 (30:39):
It really does play.

Speaker 2 (30:42):
On your mind that it gives you this false sense
of precision like oh I'm ahead in runs now or
oh so and so just pass me and steals. No
they didn't, you know, this is this is all fake.
And so I do think that there is more of
a like the sort of more holistic and more helpful

(31:05):
way is to really maybe you know, you know your
player pool well and know have an idea of what
each player you know, can't contribute, but to not lock
yourself into this false sense of exactitude.

Speaker 1 (31:16):
It's also it's a six month season, like like we're
not drafting for like a week or a DFS contest
like we we are. We are drafting for for a
six month season, and that so often gets lost. It's
going to get lost in April and me, I keep
saying this year, I'm not gonna agrabam. You get aggravated
by people getting mad. I remember last year Francisco Lindora

(31:37):
and how like how smug people were about how he
had failed. And it's like, let's maybe like see how
this like future Hall of Famer like does the last
five and a half months before we And honestly I
thought I have a down yere at that point. I
wasn't like happy about it. But it's like, let's, you know,
put the brakes on. He's a failure of a pick
like on April twelfth or whatever. So yeah, this is

(31:58):
part of it. I think we all get wrapped up
in this mentality of the now and the draft, the
thing in front of us, and I get it. We're excited.
Labor is a high profile draft where this is for
some of us is our first big draft. We want
to be like, yes, I was successful, but it's like
we don't really know, like we we don't know how
successful it will or won't be. And I think the
success comes in following your approach and just trying to

(32:21):
put the best team you can together without like you're saying,
fixating on oh boy, like I finished I projected top
and home runs and oh no, I'm fifth in RBI.

Speaker 2 (32:32):
I'm weak there, I've yeah, it's like being I won.
I've won my my league's draft for ten years running,
but never finished higher than fifth in the actual league.

Speaker 3 (32:44):
I mean, I'm not that's not me.

Speaker 2 (32:45):
I'm just saying that that's that's the place you can
get into.

Speaker 1 (32:49):
When there's a literal joke about like winning the projections
you know in these drafts, and particularly like the RT
Sports one, And I'm not again, I'm not hooking them.
I'm just I've noticed this. I think one year Howard
Bender went labor analony of the best projections. It's the
only time I can remember that happening. And it's a
kiss of death. Like you win those projections, it almost
seems like you're not going to win your league. And

(33:09):
it's not the projections are bad, it's that they're not
designed to predict what's going to happen during the season.

Speaker 3 (33:15):
Should we talk outfielders.

Speaker 1 (33:17):
Yeah, we should talk outfielders. So what we did we
talked about We did the first the five star, of
the fourth star, of the first half of the three
Stars here. So we're going to pivot to the second
half of the three starsier. The full tier is between
like ADP ninety one and one ninety five, So this
is not exact by any means of where this cutoff is.

(33:39):
And I think where did we cut off? Do you remember?

Speaker 2 (33:42):
Yeah, we cut off after Jason Colden Kowser.

Speaker 1 (33:47):
Yeah, all right, So we're gonna start with the second
half of the three STARSIER. And I think this will
be helpful too since we have draft and now we
have some experience. So I have here Colton Kowser, carry Carpenter.
You can see why A draft him where I did.
I'm higher at him than ADP Lane, Thomas, Nick Costianos,
Stephen Kwan, Victor Roebliss Jerks and profar Cedric Mullins, Jake McCarthy,

(34:11):
Parker Meadows or Haesilaire Brandon Nemo and Taylor Warren, So
I think you at least I do, like I already
see like a theme here, Like I see something about
these outfielders where they're not deficient exactly, but they definitely
have there's something missing where it's like, Okay, I can
clearly see why I wouldn't even consider these any of

(34:33):
these outfielders four star potential outfielders.

Speaker 3 (34:37):
Yeah.

Speaker 2 (34:39):
So a couple stand out to me that are happening
to be together, and that's Victor Roblace and Jerks and Profar.
And I feel like, and this is probably reflected in
ADP as well, where it's almost it's almost like projections
and rankings are sort of splitting the difference between players

(35:01):
that were very, very bad until last year. And I
feel like when you look at the profile of each
you know, Roblaze made some changes, you know, better contact.
You know, his his average has been up not just
from last year but the year before. Profar with swing

(35:21):
changes to boost his power. I sort of feel like
with either of those, you know, if you believe in them,
they're probably worth more than this, but if you don't
believe in them, they should probably be lower. You know
that that we're kind of hedging here, but I feel
like the fork, the sort of career fork. If it's
happened for Roblaze and Profar, they're actually gonna outperform their projections.

Speaker 3 (35:46):
How I feel about both guys.

Speaker 1 (35:47):
Well, I do agree. I agree, particularly on Profar, who
I think some of the reason he was ranked lower
is because he was unsigned for a while and there's
some hangover effect with that. I will say Robles is
tough because I do have him higher here than that ADP.
ADP is floating kind of at the bottom of this tier,
top of the next tier. So yeah, I believe in

(36:07):
him to the point where I want to take him
pass his ADP. I will say, though, this is more
of a strategic thing where unless you really believe in
the average, he's still kind of a one category guy,
like maybe one and a half with the runs, and
for that reason, I feel he's appropriately priced or maybe
slightly undervalued as opposed to weigh undervalued. This is just

(36:30):
how I feel about all the speed guys in general.
I'd rather take a speed guy maybe twelfth or thirteenth
round as opposed to like the tenth round. It's kind
of the Bryce Terrang Xavier Edwards thing where it's like, yeah,
I don't want to build in a fifteen team league
a guy at that early where it's like, huh if
the one thing he does like doesn't work out and

(36:51):
he falls off like I've got nothing, Yeah, I get it.

Speaker 2 (36:56):
I guess maybe I'm still more optimistic where you have
someone who's you know, over the last you see them.
This four undre and twenty one played appearances. It's a
it's a three h five average versus you know, his
career up to that point had.

Speaker 3 (37:12):
Is it's much lower. I'm trying to do the selection
here and.

Speaker 2 (37:17):
I get two thirty three average, and the projections are
obviously baking in a lot of that earlier career stuff.
I'm not saying that he is a three hundred hitter,
but yeah, I mean, I I think there's there's maybe
less risk there. But you know, I think we probably
agree on Profar that his outlook is a lot better

(37:39):
since he signed with a team where it's a good offense,
he's going to, you know, get a starting job. And
you know, if you believe in those those changes, like
I do, think you are looking at, you know, twenty
twenty five homers in a piecent average.

Speaker 1 (37:52):
I just want to clarify I believe in rob List
it's more of a philosophical thing, like if I look
at the the outfielders ahead of him, it's like, well,
I because I'm not expecting a lot of power. I
just think i'd rather have, for example, of a Josh
Lowe or Peteker Armstrong where it's like, Okay, I'm getting
some power in this package in addition to everything else.

(38:16):
I'm not relying on the average being close to three hundred. Again,
in the case of Roeblist, that's really like what it is.
And I do agree with you, like if you want
to push him up to the top of this group
we're talking about, like say I had a cow's or
I don't have a problem with that. I think that's fine.

Speaker 2 (38:32):
Anyone else in this tier that stands out as someone
you want to mention.

Speaker 1 (38:37):
Well, I want really talk about Kerry Carpenter because I
know this a platoon risk with him, and I think
there's something of an injury risk. But I look at
what he did last year and I'm really excited. I
hope this isn't like Spencer Chorklsen too, the turquol inning,
because you know, I was really excited about torqu last year.
I thought he could hit thirty five to forty home runs.
But that's what I see with Carpenter, like I see

(38:59):
a player where it's like, yeah, there there is a
lot of raw power here, and yes, he's going to
need to figure out left. He's a Yeah, small sample
thirty two played appearances he hit one oh seven that
that's obviously not good. But if he can hit against
them like at all, I think you've got a really

(39:21):
valuable player here, and kind of similar to roblists, and
the projections are just sort of baking in, like some
stuff from the past and some stuff from the minors.
I could see him hitting like two sixty two sixty
five as opposed to like the two fifty five he's at,
and I could see the home runs being closer twenty
five to thirty.

Speaker 2 (39:42):
Yeah, I think it's I mean that offense is improving,
not a great part, but I you know, I expect
that he is more or less an everyday player. I mean,
he might be a platoon plus unless he completely bottoms
out against against left.

Speaker 3 (39:58):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (39:58):
Although something funny about him, and again it's small sample,
but thirteen of his eighteen home runs were at home,
so he could very well be one of those players
who like the power plays pretty much anywhere because he's
that much of a hitter. And last thing too, to
your point, like, I look, I'm looking at the Tigers
projected lineup. Are they really going to platune him with

(40:21):
Andy Abanias? Like? It's like, well, I mean they could,
but no offense on any of Bonnie is. He's a
fine bench player. I have a hard time seeing, and
I could see, like sure, against a really tough lefty,
why not. But otherwise otherwise it's more like Carpenter hits
like six or seventh in the lineup as opposed to
betting cleanup.

Speaker 3 (40:43):
Absolutely, let's see who else who else in this tier?

Speaker 2 (40:48):
I mean, I guess this is sort of a similar
principle but different offensive profile. I think, if you know,
if Jake McCarthy is going to be an everyday player,
maybe maybe.

Speaker 3 (40:59):
He's you know, uh.

Speaker 2 (41:00):
The one you want instead of Rod Blaze or value
on a par with road Blaze, because you know that
speed is pretty pretty tasty. And talk about an offense
that's you know, a lot better this year than it was.

Speaker 1 (41:18):
Yeah, I will, I will say, and I actually have
a couple I have McCarthy in a couple of places already,
so they obviously agree with you, at least why I've
been drafting agrees with you. Kind of weird that they
he's projected to hit fifth. I have to think that
will change. I mean, no, he's not going to supplant
corpor and Carl's a lead off hitter. But I kind

(41:42):
of hope he moves up in the lineup a little bit,
just because it's the best way to sort of maximize
his speed. That's the one problem I see with him
is like I could see a cap just onlineup placement.
But yeah, he is fast and his defense should should
keep in the lineup. The metrics don't really love him,
but like from the scout perspective that that's that's a
big thing with him. And yeah, you know, all part

(42:04):
time or not quite full time, but to the last
three years he's hit for average. Yeah, it could could
be like a really good player. It doesn't strike out
a lot, which helps him as well. I think there's
a lot to like, Like, there's enough to like here
at this price. I don't over sell, you know, we're
talking about Jake McCarthy. Oversell him, but just a player
who could be a really like solid like buy at

(42:26):
this price for sure.

Speaker 2 (42:27):
I don't see where he'd move up in the in
the order though. Yeah, that's Carol Marte Naylor. Yeah, Gel,
I mean, Guril is not your traditional cleanup hitter.

Speaker 1 (42:38):
But you know you're not going to McCarthy either. Yeah,
I mean, I see what you're saying. It's just it's
just tough then, because kind of you almost wish you
had like a big bopper in a weird way almost
with with Suarez were in front of him, because you know,
he hits home run and the McCarthy comes up with
the base empty. Suppose to real who's not quite that

(43:00):
kind of a power hitter.

Speaker 2 (43:02):
We're looking at roster resource in February, so right, very much,
TVD And well let's I don't know, time to go to.

Speaker 1 (43:11):
The two Yeah, let's let's go to the two star.
We already talked about Thomas and Mollins as part of labor,
so we don't need to revisit that. So also, there's
nineteen names in the two star, and speaking of which
I'm just gonna rattle them off. There's Lotus Guriel, there's
Tyler O'Neill. There's Elio Ramos who was here before his
what I think is a minor I know these are

(43:34):
never minor, but oblaque injury, Garrett Mitchell, Lars Newbar, ALC Brelson,
Michael CONFORDO Evan Carter Jones, Byron Buckson, JJ Blade, Who's
Us Sanchez, John ku Lee, George Springer, TJ. Fridell, Matt Waller,
will Or Bray, Johnny de Luca, and Trevor Larnox. So
lots of names here. This is like pick one ninety

(43:55):
six through two. I think it's two eighty five. So again,
this is a pretty big range. But yeah here even
more so that this is where like you're in even
in fifteen team leagues, you're an outfielder four outfielder five territory,
and in those deep fifteen team leagues, this is where
you're starting to accept platoons and limitations and being like, well,

(44:17):
I know I'm not going to get a superstar here. Yeah, yeah,
I'd be great. I Nolan Jones bounces back to that level,
but I think we have I think the limitations here
are pretty clear.

Speaker 2 (44:28):
How do you how do you feel about taking a player,
let's say, you know, for your fifth outfielder, who is
pretty clearly a platoon bat, you know, like, you know,
who are some examples here like CONFORDO say, probably going

(44:49):
to be mostly a platoon maybe Hasey Sanchez, like is
the landscape.

Speaker 1 (44:57):
Garritt Mitchell could be, although it's I think you might.

Speaker 3 (45:01):
Yeah, so I guess you know.

Speaker 2 (45:03):
My question is like, given the shift in roles so
that there are I'm guessing I meant to do a
quick count before we recorded, but I didn't get a chance.
But you know, if the number of full time outfielders
is lower, are you just sort of like, well, I
might be missing value here if I pass up a

(45:26):
platoon bat. Obviously, like alongside platoon where you know, there
might be the odd half week or week where there
are a lot of same sided matchups and I sit
the player. But even if I get like two out
of three games in a half week, that you know
it's worth it.

Speaker 1 (45:43):
Yeah, So I think you kind of reached the point
here where you almost have to I don't want to
say accept the platoon bat. But the reason that the
full time outfielders are here is because they're stealing is lower,
So it's not really and vice versa. The reasonabletoon bats
are here, like Conforido, It's because like, well, Conforido still

(46:05):
has a high enough ceiling that even in like say
five hundred, like five hundred and forty plate appearances, he
could hit twenty five to thirty home runs. So the
trade off is the volume. The trade off is the
runs in the RBI. I think the other thing too
about this, This is more of a decision of like, well,
if you're concerned about platoons and the volume, draft your

(46:26):
outfielders earlier, that that's kind of the answer because the
trade like I said, the trade off as you're taking
somebody who might be okay, like who might be solid,
but also there's a reason they're in this tier, like
there's some sort of limitation, whether it's like Tyler Ordeale
the concern is about injuries, or like Lauris Garyel who

(46:47):
who's a solid outfielder, Like he's fine, but I don't
see like another level to him where it's like, oh gosh,
he's got to like break out. So that's what it is.

Speaker 2 (46:57):
He's graduated to bogwatch.

Speaker 1 (47:00):
Yeah. Yeah, So you're you're taking the higher talent I think,
or the higher ceiling per plate appearance, and you're trading
off those plate appearances. And the other thing too, is
that this really matters in a mono league like so
so in an NL or AL only, Yeah, you want
to max out those plate appearances in a mixed league,

(47:21):
like a couple of things will happen. One is that
you should have like even the main event with our injuries,
we always had like an outfielder on our bench where
it's like or like a player. It's like, yeah, we
can cycle through, like we can make choices, like we
can do this, we can do that. But the second thing,
so I put this, I was going to save this
for starting pitching, but I'm going to like break this

(47:43):
out now. I put together this and maybe I've shared
this youre ready, but I put together this. In doing research,
I actually stumbled upon the idea that outfielders are more fungible.
I think we talked about this on our like value
podcasts earlier, but outfielders are more fungible than you. So
I broke this down by like brackets like outfield one,

(48:04):
outfield two, outfield three, so outfield four. Six of the
fifteen outfielders drafted, that's like between forty six to sixty
six of those outfielders are below replacement replacement last year.
And then the next bracket, which is outfielder five, which
is the sixty first of the seventy fifth outfielder drafted.

(48:25):
Eight of those fifteen outfielders are below replacement. You're going
to be we don't like to think of it this way,
but you're going to be replacing some of these guys.
And like, as it happens, I didn't do this on purpose,
the five four and three three starsiers are forty five
outfielders exactly again, I promise you I did not do
that to make a point. That's just how it shook out.

(48:47):
So you're when you get to the two starsier, you're
at outfield four at the beginning outfield five. Think think
of it this way like you're kind of you're close
to the point. You're quite coin flip territory, but you're
close where you've got to. You know, let me do
the math here. You've got a forty chance of that

(49:09):
your outfielder for is somewhere are gonna need to replace
who's not going to work out. I would almost rather
take You don't want to go too far with it,
but almost rather take the CONFORDO and be like, well,
he's going to be great ways in the lineup. Then
take the boring player and be like, Okay, I got
the boring guy's going to play every day, but I'm
looking at fifteen to sixteen home runs with a few

(49:30):
steals and like, yeah, okay, like I have an everyday player.

Speaker 2 (49:35):
It's almost like think of your your lineup, your starting
lineup as your first four outfielders, and you're out your
o F five almost treat like a bench spot, you know,
So don't don't push anyone up just because you feel
like you need to get an o F five because
you know the late round pick that you you know,

(49:56):
throw a dart at might might stick, but you were
going to cut that guy more than likely, or.

Speaker 1 (50:02):
Volume is important earlier in the draft, like you definitely
you don't want to you don't want to spend like
a twelve round pick like on or you know, you
sat a twelve round pick on somebody who's in a
definite platoon, who's gonna be limited, who's gonna sit or whatever,
or you know someone on the rockies where you're like, okay,
like I know this player is gonna stink on the road,

(50:22):
or he's not gonna be great to use on the road.
This is the part of the draft where like Oz
is kind of why well, I like Nolan Jones in
his bracket. It's like, yeah, he could bounce back, but
even if he doesn't bounce all the way back, he
should be a nice option at cores if he's healthy,
because it's cores. And if he isn't he stinks again,
it's like, well, now he's like going a two fifty

(50:42):
or so I'm just gonna move on.

Speaker 3 (50:45):
Mm hmm.

Speaker 1 (50:47):
Byron Bucks. It is finally at a point two where
it's like, yeah, Byron Bucks, at this price, sure, if
I can get him for the two months he's healthy
and or three months he's healthy and great, fine, If not,
all right, well, I you know, time to move on.
Time taking their outfielder. This is another point too is
and we'll get to this when we pivot to the
one star tier. There were more outfielders. There were more

(51:11):
free agent outfielders above replacement level last year than starting pitchers.
There were twenty seven outfielders I should say reserve or
free agents. There were twenty seven outfielders taking a reserve
or acquired via free agency who wound up fishing above replacement.
There were twenty starting pitchers that did that. There's a
lot of opportunity to pick up outfielders, like, don't don't
get too focused on I have to get my value here.

(51:33):
I have to get my volume. Like I think that's
a it's it's kind of a bad path. But you again,
if you're taking that boring.

Speaker 2 (51:41):
Guy, Yeah, yeah, no, that's that's good. I almost feel
like we don't need to talk about any I mean,
I feel like the discussion more philosophically about this tier
is maybe more.

Speaker 3 (51:54):
Valuable than picking out individual players.

Speaker 1 (51:57):
Looking, I don't see any one here that I'm particularly
you know, and probably you've already heard like other people
talk about these players in podcasts, I don't or articles.
I don't really think we need to dive into anyone here.

Speaker 3 (52:12):
Yeah you start here, we don't need you.

Speaker 1 (52:17):
Yeah, So I guess we can do the value thing,
you know, one star lower, is there is there someone
I'll rattle off these eight names, like is there someone
you like or someone off the board. So the eight
names in the one starts here are Jacob Young, Roman,
Anthony Brandon, March, Joansky, Noel Pavin Smith, Joe Adell, Jordan Walker,

(52:37):
and Max Kepler. You can pick one of these guys,
or you can just pick someone else.

Speaker 2 (52:45):
Yeah, I I I'm going to pick someone else. And
it's more just to kind of continue the the sort
of the team construction discussion.

Speaker 3 (52:58):
But I want to this is your first.

Speaker 2 (53:01):
Name on the late round reserves, but Hessen Tirestad of
the of the Oils.

Speaker 3 (53:07):
And my thought here is not that he's amazing.

Speaker 2 (53:14):
I would say I would call him, you know, based
on his his path through the minor leagues, like a
very solid skilled hitter, not gonna have plus plus power,
should have a decent average. But we've talked about this
too a little bit with respect to you know, how
we want to draft in in the main event, which

(53:34):
is you almost it almost seems more advantageous to just
draft someone young who might not have a path to
playing time right now. But you know, if he were
a regular in the Orioles lineup, like I think you'd

(53:57):
be looking at like you know, you'd be concernedatively looking at.

Speaker 3 (54:00):
Like a top forty to fifty outfielder.

Speaker 2 (54:03):
I mean, you'd be looking probably someone similar to to
Colton Kowser with with a little less speed. So this
is more a philosophical point, which is when you get
down to this point, uh, don't do what I did
at the I mean this is not an apples to
apples because I don't think Krstad was available at this point.
But my last outfield pick in WHORF was Alex Dugo, unsigned, unskilled, unloved,

(54:29):
who will almost certainly be cut. But you know, take
the later picks and put them on a hessencurestad.

Speaker 3 (54:36):
Or and Andy Pajes or a I don't know about Chase.

Speaker 2 (54:40):
The Louder because I don't know if he's going to
open with the big club, but you know, these are
players who you can cut easily. But if they do
find a way towards playing time early in the season,
then this is where I think you're going to find
a lot of profit.

Speaker 1 (54:54):
Yeah, I mean the general point certainly stands, which is
you it wrapped up so much again, like you're saying
in roles and at bats and volume, and particularly when
you get to the reserve like section of the draft,
it's like, I don't want to say who cares, but
it doesn't matter that much. It's very easy to just

(55:17):
cut a player after a week or two, particularly if
you take him in the twenty fifth round, Like it
doesn't like why am I obsessing over this? Like why
am I worrying about this? So yeah, I like the thought,
and I like curse that too, Like it doesn't seem
to have an opportunity right now. But these things generally
tend to work themselves out. We shouldn't get too over
like over analyze it. Any else had him before. I

(55:41):
kind of move on to my players. So this is
a this is kind of a different thing here. I'm
going with somebody who was good in twenty twenty three,
or really really in twenty twenty three, who fell off
very badly. That's chasmccormick. So Chas McCormick was almost a
twenty twenty player, I'm twenty twenty three. Yeah, say, I
know it could very well be a terrible bet, but

(56:05):
this kind of ties into your arguments sort of the
other side of this. I am perfectly willing to just
take a chance on him and see what happens, and
if it works, great. If it doesn't work, I'm going
to cut him pretty quickly. Rudy Gamble took him in labor,
and I was annoyed because I was just sitting there thinking, Man,
I'm gonna snag McCormick like like super late. He's absolutely
off the board in NFBC leagues, and that didn't happen.

(56:28):
The Astros projected outfield. Now. I know, ZAYL two bay
might very well move to the outfield at least part time,
but right now he's projected second base. Their outfield is
Chas McCormick, Ben Gamble and Jake Myers. Sure McCormick could
lose his job, but I don't know, man, I'd bet
Gamble's the first one to the bench if L two
vas going to the outfield.

Speaker 3 (56:49):
Yeah, totally.

Speaker 2 (56:50):
I like McCormick. I mean, it's the last year's bums
kind of kind of thing. You know, he displayed those
skills in twenty twenty three.

Speaker 1 (57:00):
He was hurt. He was played through some sort of
injury too, I think, like I think he was banged up.
So yeah, looking at.

Speaker 2 (57:07):
His age, I mean he's still pretty young, right, he's
thirty twenty, he's thirty.

Speaker 3 (57:11):
Okay, he's twenty nine.

Speaker 1 (57:13):
I mean he's older, but he's not. Yeah, we'll be
thirty like in April, right.

Speaker 3 (57:18):
Right, right, But even projections.

Speaker 1 (57:20):
You know, with.

Speaker 2 (57:22):
Four hundred ish plate appearances, this is sort of a
fourteen and thirteen, thirteen and twelve.

Speaker 1 (57:31):
Huh.

Speaker 2 (57:32):
So these are you know, this is a totally usable
player if he's on the field.

Speaker 1 (57:36):
That's what it is.

Speaker 3 (57:37):
He doesn't bounce back to twenty three.

Speaker 1 (57:39):
Well, that's what it is. Is that if you take
those projections and you know, you pump up the plate
appearances a little bit, it's like, okay, so seventeen fifteen
with a two forty average, and that's fine for your
fifth outfielder, and maybe even a little bit more than fine.

Speaker 3 (57:57):
Yeah, I'm going up.

Speaker 2 (57:58):
I'm going up the list if I'm you know, like
like you will find comps like that probably in the
in the two star tier, right, I mean these are
where you're you know, like a I mean could be
like a Nolan Jones or a Garrett Mitchell season if
they if they get full time playing time.

Speaker 3 (58:18):
So yeah, so this is you don't have to imagine
a lot.

Speaker 2 (58:23):
You know, the role is already there and you can
imagine even if he is in twenty twenty three chats
in performance that he.

Speaker 3 (58:30):
Is a two star tier player at the very least.

Speaker 1 (58:33):
Yeah, I don't you know. We can close out soon,
But I don't think at this price, and I'm just
trying to.

Speaker 3 (58:39):
I think he's going to go up though I think.

Speaker 1 (58:42):
It well too, but he's right now, he's outside of
the top four hundred. Well, this is it. Not to
throw shade at draft champions, but this is the thing
I notice about that format is that and some of
they're drafting differently because of nature, like it's a draft
and hold. But I don't think they have the innate
deep knowledge of like deep league players like this, like
I or others might who play in deep leagues. And

(59:03):
that's some of it. Like they get to a point
it's like yeah, like he's all news. I'm not interested.
I'd rather take somebody else. So I would agree with
you if on March fifteenth, like it looks like he's
starting his price will I mean, he's not gonna go
way up, but his price will creep up for sure.

Speaker 3 (59:19):
Outfielder's done.

Speaker 1 (59:20):
Outfielder's done. We talked a little labor. Let's uh take
a breath, and I will close out. Thanks once again

(59:51):
for listening to episode three twenty seven of Flags Fly Forever,
A Baseball Perspectives Fantasy Baseball podcast. We are in the middle.
Well really, we're more reaching towards the tail end of
our fantasy coverage for the preseason, which means you're going
to see my bid limits soon. I know people have
been asking about that, so I'm gonna mention it here
because I figure if you listen to me or you're

(01:00:13):
interested in that, the first edition that is coming out
on March seventh, so that'll be ale only and only
and mixed auction. Additionally, Brett, Sarah and I are working
on a top three hundred draft list if you do
drafts as opposed to auctions, if you're not that type
of sicco Those will probably be out next week some
time as well. So it's all happening. It's all here
for you. We're ready to help you win your leagues

(01:00:36):
with our advice for Mike Chill and John Hegelin. Thank
you very much and we'll be back with you soon.

Speaker 3 (01:00:43):
Good night, and good luck.

Speaker 4 (01:01:07):
The I'll probably cut this section out, so you probably

Speaker 1 (01:15:37):
Should so we don't sound like stupid