Benjamin Todd joins the podcast to discuss how reasoning models changed AI, why agents may be next, where progress could stall, and what a self-improvement feedback loop in AI might mean for the economy and society. We explore concrete timelines (through 2030), compute and power bottlenecks, and the odds of an industrial explosion. We end by discussing how people can personally prepare for AGI: networks, skills, saving/investing, resilience, citizenship, and information hygiene.
Follow Benjamin's work at: https://benjamintodd.substack.com
Timestamps:
00:00 What are reasoning models?
04:04 Reinforcement learning supercharges reasoning
05:06 Reasoning models vs. agents
10:04 Economic impact of automated math/code
12:14 Compute as a bottleneck
15:20 Shift from giant pre-training to post-training/agents
17:02 Three feedback loops: algorithms, chips, robots
20:33 How fast could an algorithmic loop run?
22:03 Chip design and production acceleration
23:42 Industrial/robotics loop and growth dynamics
29:52 Society’s slow reaction; “warning shots”
33:03 Robotics: software and hardware bottlenecks
35:05 Scaling robot production
38:12 Robots at ~$0.20/hour?
43:13 Regulation and humans-in-the-loop
49:06 Personal prep: why it still matters
52:04 Build an information network
55:01 Save more money
58:58 Land, real estate, and scarcity in an AI world
01:02:15 Valuable skills: get close to AI, or far from it
01:06:49 Fame, relationships, citizenship
01:10:01 Redistribution, welfare, and politics under AI
01:12:04 Try to become more resilient
01:14:36 Information hygiene
01:22:16 Seven-year horizon and scaling limits by ~2030
Popular Podcasts
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com
Are You A Charlotte?
In 1997, actress Kristin Davis’ life was forever changed when she took on the role of Charlotte York in Sex and the City. As we watched Carrie, Samantha, Miranda and Charlotte navigate relationships in NYC, the show helped push once unacceptable conversation topics out of the shadows and altered the narrative around women and sex. We all saw ourselves in them as they searched for fulfillment in life, sex and friendships. Now, Kristin Davis wants to connect with you, the fans, and share untold stories and all the behind the scenes. Together, with Kristin and special guests, what will begin with Sex and the City will evolve into talks about themes that are still so relevant today. "Are you a Charlotte?" is much more than just rewatching this beloved show, it brings the past and the present together as we talk with heart, humor and of course some optimism.
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.