Benjamin Todd joins the podcast to discuss how reasoning models changed AI, why agents may be next, where progress could stall, and what a self-improvement feedback loop in AI might mean for the economy and society. We explore concrete timelines (through 2030), compute and power bottlenecks, and the odds of an industrial explosion. We end by discussing how people can personally prepare for AGI: networks, skills, saving/investing, resilience, citizenship, and information hygiene.
Follow Benjamin's work at: https://benjamintodd.substack.com
Timestamps:
00:00 What are reasoning models?
04:04 Reinforcement learning supercharges reasoning
05:06 Reasoning models vs. agents
10:04 Economic impact of automated math/code
12:14 Compute as a bottleneck
15:20 Shift from giant pre-training to post-training/agents
17:02 Three feedback loops: algorithms, chips, robots
20:33 How fast could an algorithmic loop run?
22:03 Chip design and production acceleration
23:42 Industrial/robotics loop and growth dynamics
29:52 Society’s slow reaction; “warning shots”
33:03 Robotics: software and hardware bottlenecks
35:05 Scaling robot production
38:12 Robots at ~$0.20/hour?
43:13 Regulation and humans-in-the-loop
49:06 Personal prep: why it still matters
52:04 Build an information network
55:01 Save more money
58:58 Land, real estate, and scarcity in an AI world
01:02:15 Valuable skills: get close to AI, or far from it
01:06:49 Fame, relationships, citizenship
01:10:01 Redistribution, welfare, and politics under AI
01:12:04 Try to become more resilient
01:14:36 Information hygiene
01:22:16 Seven-year horizon and scaling limits by ~2030
Popular Podcasts
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
My Favorite Murder with Karen Kilgariff and Georgia Hardstark
My Favorite Murder is a true crime comedy podcast hosted by Karen Kilgariff and Georgia Hardstark. Each week, Karen and Georgia share compelling true crimes and hometown stories from friends and listeners. Since MFM launched in January of 2016, Karen and Georgia have shared their lifelong interest in true crime and have covered stories of infamous serial killers like the Night Stalker, mysterious cold cases, captivating cults, incredible survivor stories and important events from history like the Tulsa race massacre of 1921. My Favorite Murder is part of the Exactly Right podcast network that provides a platform for bold, creative voices to bring to life provocative, entertaining and relatable stories for audiences everywhere. The Exactly Right roster of podcasts covers a variety of topics including historic true crime, comedic interviews and news, science, pop culture and more. Podcasts on the network include Buried Bones with Kate Winkler Dawson and Paul Holes, That's Messed Up: An SVU Podcast, This Podcast Will Kill You, Bananas and more.
The Joe Rogan Experience
The official podcast of comedian Joe Rogan.