Election Implications (Part 3): JP Morgan’s Read on Trump 2.0 and What’s Next for Healthcare

Healthcare was not a major focus during the 2024 election where other key issues drove most of the discussion. This left a vacuum around specific healthcare policies and what to expect from a second Trump Administration. With few details available and political capital to spend from the ‘red sweep’ this election, healthcare stakeholders are pondering how much of the incoming administration’s preference for disrupting the status quo will extend to the healthcare industry.

For the third episode in a four part series on election implications – and the first one since votes were counted and winners declared – JP Morgan analyst Lisa Gill joined Keith Figlioli on the Healthcare is Hard podcast to analyze the outcome.

Lisa has more than three decades of healthcare industry experience and has spent most of her career at JP Morgan where she has been covering the healthcare services industry for the last 27 years. In this episode, Keith talked to Lisa about the lessons she’s learned covering healthcare for several decades, and asked her to share her outlook for what to expect in the months and years ahead. A few of the topics they discussed include:

• Cycles of innovation. Thinking about how the industry has evolved over time and how healthcare organizations have had to continuously reinvent themselves, one of the main observation Lisa makes is that common themes and trendlines often repeat themselves. She cites the pharmaceutical industry as an example, comparing the cycle of pharmacy innovation when she started as an analyst in the late 1990s to the current wave of innovation that’s occurring now.
• Consolidation and diversification. With a philosophy that leans towards deregulation and loosening oversight, one expectation of the incoming administration is that it will create more opportunity for M&A. Lisa talks about the trends driving consolidation in the industry and how it’s not just about diversifying earnings and revenue. She says it’s about broadening the touchpoints organizations have with patients in order to reach the goal of finally being able to deliver truly integrated care.
• Optimism for managed care. If early returns in public markets after the election are an indication of what’s to come, managed care organizations are in a good position to thrive under the second Trump administration. Lisa points to the fact that managed care companies outperformed the day following the election, rising 5.8% while hospitals fell more than 4%. With a friendlier environment for reimbursement rates and STAR ratings, and a lower bar for M&A, she expects this trend to continue.
• Previewing the 43rd Annual JP Morgan Healthcare Conference. This venerable event sets the stage on what to expect in healthcare for the year to come. And while it takes place before the presidential inauguration, signals from the Trump transition team, including announcements about appointments to cabinet positions and healthcare agencies, will drive the conversation. However, Lisa believes the industry won’t have a clear view into the new administration’s focus and priorities for healthcare until well into the first quarter of 2025.

To hear Lisa and Keith discuss these topics and more, listen to this episode of Healthcare is Hard: A Podcast for Insiders.