Tesla stock closed the day at $428 per share, representing a valuation of $1.5T. Reflecting on this milestone, I wanted to analyze what Tesla's financials were and what would be needed to justify a valuation of this level, and beyond. My high level theory is, Tesla is in a very unique spot. The core business is likely to generate $9B in GAAP operating income for the full year of 2024. Based on today's closing price, that is a valuation of 167X price/earnings. A little steep. Buying at today's $1.5T price implies an expected valuation of $3-5T in the future (a potential double or triple on your money). To justify this, Tesla will need about $100B in earnings. So that is my questions? When does Tesla hit this number? How fast do Cybercab & Optimus contribute to the company's earnings and cashflow? Will the market continue keeping an Elon Musk premium on the stock forever, or could it decrease? Let me know what you think in the comments below!
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