Players' Podcast: Deep Dive Into the Kentucky Derby Top 10

The final Kentucky Derby Top 10 list has been meticulously examined in this enlightening episode, as I engage in a profound discussion with Eric DeCoster, a prominent figure in Derby analysis. We delve into the intricacies of each contender, evaluating their performances, potential, and the factors influencing their prospects in the upcoming race. Among the key topics addressed is the overall quality of the current crop of horses, with DeCoster expressing a degree of disappointment regarding their development since their two-year-old season. We further explore the challenges faced by pivotal horses, including the prospects of those who narrowly missed the top ten. As Derby Day approaches, we emphasize the significance of understanding the dynamics of this prestigious race, reflecting on historical performances and the unpredictable nature of the event.

PTF sits down with Eric DeCoster for a deeper dive into the final Kentucky Derby Top 10.

Takeaways:

• The podcast features an in-depth analysis of the final Kentucky Derby Top 10 rankings, providing listeners with critical insights.
• Eric DeCoster shares his observations on the progression of the current crop of three-year-old horses, expressing disappointment in their development.
• The discussion highlights the importance of race configuration for horses like Sovereignty and Journalism as they prepare for the Derby.
• Listeners are encouraged to subscribe for detailed coverage and analysis of the Kentucky Derby as race day approaches.

Links referenced in this episode:

• inthemoneypodcast.com

Companies mentioned in this episode:

• Prairie Meadows
• Pavement
• Rich Strike
• Burnham Square
• Tiz Tastic
• Citizen Bull
• Final Gambit
• East Avenue
• Admire Daytona
• Luxor Cafe
• Sovereignty
• Journalism
• Chunk of Gold

Episode Transcript

(00:01):
Hello and welcome to a specialedition of the in the Money Players
podcast.
We're going to have theregular early week recap a little
bit later.
Mikey P.
And Nick Tamaraw on that one,but I'm here.
Peter Thomas Fornitel in theBrooklyn Bunker once again to talk
to the man who has been reallythe MVP of the Derby content from
last winter.
Now, as we get ready to headin earnest, headlong into these couple

(00:23):
of weeks before the firstSaturday in May, I speak of Eric
DeCoster.
Eric, how are things?
Things are good.
I, I just completed my move toIowa to kick off my gig in person
at least at Prairie Meadowsbecause we got our meet starting
in a month, so busy times onthat front and then obviously the,
the Derby coming up.
But it's, it's all good.
It's all stuff I like doingthat's excellent.

(00:46):
Very cool.
Love the fact that you'regoing to be out there helping out
at Prairie Meadows.
Hopefully at least on the plusside of things we can get some more
Prairie Meadows coverage goingthis year, though I don't know.
As racing secretary, are youallowed to talk about races like
a horseplayer would, or wouldyou have to put us in touch with
one of your colleagues?
That's probably the morelikely option.

(01:06):
I probably have to dancearound certain things.
That's what I was in terms ofactually getting to put my, my talk
into action and gettinginvolved with the races.
I definitely have to look elsewhere.
So it probably more enjoyablethat way too.
At least in my opinion.
There you go.
Years ago we had BobNastanovich on talking Prairie Meadows
at some point.

(01:27):
I, I assume Bob is still thereworking at Prairie Meadows.
Have you come across him?
I'm familiar with the name,but he hasn't, he hasn't been around
in a little bit.
I, I recall.
Gotcha.
Well, he may be touring thethe world being the rock star that
he is in the band Pavement.
So I'm not sure I gotta catchup with him.
But hopefully one way oranother we'll have some Prairie Meadows
coverage coming up in the nottoo distant future.

(01:49):
But that is not why we arehere today.
We are here to talk about thefinal top 10 list video flying on
YouTube about it.
You can check out the thoughtsof myself and jk.
But we're here to do a littlebit of a deeper dive into this list.
And I'll start with a coupleof very general questions.
How good, as somebody who hasmade these type of lists for a number

(02:09):
of years, how good do you feellike this crop Is overall I'm pretty.
Disappointed with how it's progressed.
I thought that these two yearolds were going to come and, and
stay consistent, stay as goodas they were or I guess more importantly
improve off of the effortsthey'd put forth last year.
Horses like ChancellorMcPatrick, I think East Avenue to

(02:29):
an extent, sitting some bowllast time and then some even bigger
disappointments outside of them.
But, but I, I, I wish they hadprogressed because I thought they
would and that's why I rankedthem so highly on these lists early
on.
But, but they didn't reallyand it doesn't feel like that many
horses have caught up to them.
It just feels like these,these are the types that have, you

(02:49):
know, progressed beyond them.
Other than I'd say the topthree, four or five horses that will
go over today.
Yeah, we'll get there for sure.
In terms of ones that you leftout, who was the toughest decision?
One of the ones that you movefrom in to out or maybe, I mean did
you give a look to a horselike East Avenue based on how good

(03:10):
he was briefly as a two yearold coming back somewhat into form
the last day, who was thehardest one to leave out?
That's a, that's a really goodquestion there, there's a few that
I think would be, would belonger shots in the Derby but I think
are worth considering.
But, but maybe not your themost straightforward horses.
You know, I've seen some lovefor the likes of An American Promise

(03:32):
or a Publisher as early maybeWise Guy types or Chunk of Gold especially.
But, but the one horse I'd saythat that didn't get on the list
that I think might be the besthorse I left out on Derby day is
Final Gambit who you know hasonly had one really big race has
only ever started on syntheticwhich has a lot to overcome come

(03:53):
to Derby Day.
But how he's progressed andhow he looks physically, it's probably
night and day for even BradCox's liking and that's why he had
him at Turfway and running himon the synthetic and he's really
broken through and justwatching him train through videos
in the morning, it seems likehe loves the dirt and gets over it
super well.

(04:13):
So I, I think he's a horsewho's just flying in the right direction.
We'll see how things shake outas, as the Derby comes closer.
But, but I think that thishorse is really finding his way and
the, the Turfway, the JeffRuby Stakes Prep Angle has not been
the worst in the last fewyears with some really nice horses
or at least horses horses whoran well like Rich Strike coming

(04:34):
out of the Ruby and going onto to win or place in the Derby.
And two fills another one thatcomes to mind that had a PP cut that
didn't look entirelydissimilar to final Gambit.
Unless I'm misremembering that.
Let's get to the list properstarting with the one you have at
number 10 and that's Tiz Tastic.
The obvious storyline here alot of us are are interested in is

(04:58):
is this the one to break theSteve Asmussen who hoodoo in the
Kentucky Derby.
Very nice run in the LouisianaDerby last time.
I think he certainly deservesa spot in the top 10.
Assuming that last race, doesthat represent a new level of ability
or was this a horse with agood setup?
I'm guessing you're sittingsomewhere in between those two possibilities

(05:19):
from the fact that he's 10thon the list.
Exactly, exactly.
I think you, you hit the nailright on the head with that.
A really nice horse and, and ahorse with this much consistency
at these levels, this muchbattle tested form, that's something
you always love to see cominginto the Derby.
And then you throw in the winat the mile 3:16.

(05:40):
I think that changed a handfulof years ago from a mile and an eighth
to a mile and 3:16.
Louisiana Derby has been a bigdifference maker and having this
be a key derby prep even forhorses that didn't win it, they go
on to run well in the Kentucky Derby.
So you have to love those twothings for this horse.
But the Louisiana Trail, I waskind of alluding to it through many

(06:01):
different forms of, of contentthat I didn't think the Fairgrounds
Derby trail was that strongthis year.
Even though some of thenumbers came back big.
I didn't think the horses wereactually reflective of those numbers.
And he didn't beat the bestfield that day.
I don't think the LouisianaDerby was even as good of a race
as say the Risen Star andmaybe even the La Compte was.

(06:21):
So that, that's where, that'swhere I get kind of put in that middle,
middle space.
And he's still a good horse.
He's still going to run hisrace in the Derby.
But I, I think him winning therace is going to be a big stretch,
especially given he's.
It seems like he's his bestrace comes when he comes from far
back like he did last time.
And there's a lot of otherhorses that'll be coming from the
same exact spot, trying to getthe same exact trip.

(06:45):
And you know, in thatsituation you got to go off ability
from there.
And he's not better than someof the other horses on this list.
We're going to have a ton ofextra stuff in terms of video specifically
about the draw for theKentucky Derby.
We're going to obviously getinto the nitty gritty of the pace.
It does seem now like there'sgoing to be plenty of it, but where

(07:08):
these horses are drawn andthat idea of, you know, you probably
don't want the third bestcloser in the race to be your key,
that kind of thing, it's goingto be interesting.
And if folks want to make surethey catch all that, I'd recommend
subscribing to the in TheMoney Media YouTube channel.
Click notifications on there.
So you see all the stuffcoming down the pike on the YouTube
channel, including thosespecial videos.

(07:29):
And also as usual, we're goingto have a big derby package on the
in the money plus side.
Inthemoney podcast.com/ tolearn more about that.
We should probably have allthose details up there in the next
couple of days even, I'd say.
So we continue on with thelist and we move to Oklahoma park
and the Arkansas Trail.

(07:50):
For a runner who's been alittle bit divisive, a cold battle.
I was actually probably givinghim more credit before I did the
Monster Pod video.
The audios on the Monster Pod,by the way, will be up.
It's the balls in JK's court.
He's got to do his and thenI'll stitch them all together.
But I'm hoping by this weekend.
But Clay Sanders was our guestfor Cole Battle and he, he wasn't

(08:11):
giving him the extra creditthat I was initially wanting to give
him for being a little bitcloser in the Arkansas Derby.
Where do you stand?
Is Cole Battle a live longshot or is he just a horse who's
on the list?
Because he's got some ones tothe right side of his pedigree and
maybe a little bit of anexcuse last time.
No, I agree with the excuselast time.

(08:32):
That was my immediate reaction.
I thought maybe I overreacted.
I went back and I definitelystill believe he was too close to
that pace or maybe moreimportantly moved too quickly into
that fast pace.
And I think that kind of tooksome of the juice out of we know
how effective he can be as awell off the pace closer.
He showed that when he won theSpringboard Mile from super far back

(08:54):
and that was a great move hemade that day to come catch a horse
who's come getting away on thefront end.
So I was very, I was hopingthat in the Arkansas Derby there
would be a little bit moreawareness out of the, out of the
break to take back and comewith that one run.
But instead they made thatearly move from that stalking position
or quote unquote Stockingposition 9 lengths off the lead.

(09:16):
But either way, I think thattook a lot out of it.
I think being a little moreaware of what the pace scenario in
the Derby will be, post drawwill do a lot of favors for this
horse.
And he's another one that hasreally good form and he's kept up
with the best one.
He's beaten a Sandman still.
He's beaten other Derby Prepwinners and Publisher is not a bad

(09:39):
horse either.
And that's another horse he's beaten.
And so I think his form's beenproven on many different occasions.
And for that reason, I thinkyou have to keep him around.
He obviously has to get a lotfaster to be a Derby contender, but
could be a live long shot.
You're going to get a bigprice on him, I guarantee it, because
not many people are going torespect him enough off that loss.
It's interesting, I feel likeI'm doing this audio with you and

(10:02):
prepping for another videobecause another one we've got coming
up is our live long shots andI might put him as one of those for
the record time.
Form did give him a five pointupgrade for those early exertions
in there.
The final raw number on timeform 110, and then the pace adjusted
rating came back at 115.

(10:22):
You talked about the draw andcall battle.
I'm going to assume you wanthim in the inside half of the field,
but not down in the 1, 2 or 3.
Somewhere in that 4 to 10 range.
Is that, is that what you'relooking for?
Do you want him furtheroutside than that?
You know, I think probablyinside is better.
I think just covering him upand allowing he clearly can work
out any trip he wants.
So just putting yourself in aposition to do that come Derby day

(10:45):
will be really, really key.
I think there seems likeit'll, it'll be quite a bit of pace
as things stand right now.
So, you know, just puttingyourself in a position to stay out
of trouble, not get it inanybody's way early on and come,
come with your run when it matters.
Let's talk about the Floridaslash Keeneland route to the Derby
next on the list BurnhamSquare, this gelding by Liam's map,

(11:10):
who comes here off what was apretty nice race in the Bluegrass.
How serious do you think hischances are in the Kentucky Derby?
I think he's got a very solid chance.
I just hope that the Bluegrassdidn't take too much out of him.
Ian Wilkes is a great trainer,but he's never going to get a horse
fully cranked for the big spot.

(11:30):
But I wonder if the big spotcame erased too soon by having him
at his best for the Bluegrass,and we might see a regression come
Derby day, because that's kindof what we saw from the Holy bowl
to the Fountain of Youth.
He technically got faster, atleast on the buyer scale, by one
point, which is encouraging to see.
And then he stepped it up bigtime to a 96, winning the bluegrass
from last.

(11:51):
And that was a big effort.
But was that his biggest effort?
So.
So that's my one concern.
But he's obviously a classy horse.
You look through his form, youlook at the horses he's beaten, you
can't knock him in any sense there.
He beat Tapping street in theHoly bowl, three back now and then,
obviously beating East Avenue,getting back at River Thames, who

(12:11):
finished in front of him inthe Fountain of Youth, nearly won
the Fountain of Youth.
So he's answered all those questions.
He's another one of those deep closers.
So once again, it kind ofcomes down to who's the best of these
types.
And, you know, not every yeardoes it have to be the best type.
Back when Rich Strike won theDerby, giving him another reference,
he was not the best closer inthe race.
He just.11 closer in the race there.

(12:33):
Yeah, yeah, exactly.
Exactly.
Just an amazing ride that dayfor, you know, for whatever reason
it worked out.
And Mo Donegal, who might havebeen the best one that day, was 30
wide.
That's the Derby.
So that.
That'll be a key element to how.
How he's drawn, what kind ofride Brian Hernandez can work out
that's going to give him thebest chance.

(12:53):
But will he have the kick, too?
Who.
Who really knows?
Because.
Because it's tough to predictwith the spar.
Yeah, he ran very efficientlythat day.
Did have a little bit oftrouble at the start, but it was
the kind of day where thetrouble at the start might have ultimately
helped him because it was redfractions throughout.
On time form us, he moved lastand he moved best.

(13:13):
But I think if this was just aregular race and not the Kentucky
Derby we were talking about,I'd be rating East Avenue higher
than Burnham Square coming outof the Bluegrass.
Looking at those early pacefigures he laid out now, I agree
with you to have BurnhamSquare on the top 10 and East Avenue
presumably as a bubble horse,simply because I'm pretty sure there's

(13:34):
going to be a plenty otherspeed in this spot.
Now we'll see if there aresome defections.
Maybe East Avenue is in asituation where you can conjure a
situation that he couldcontrol the Derby up front, but I
do worry that there'll just betoo much pace once again.
But East Avenue ran a heck ofa race in the Bluegrass.
When going back and looking atpace figures, how close did you come

(13:56):
to putting him on this list?
I would say he was probably raright behind Final Gambit, who we
mentioned earlier.
He's.
He's very hard to trust, aseveryone can imagine off of those
earlier efforts.
And you know how he'll handlesome of that other speed.
A horse that we're going totalk about in a second it that that's
what concerns me the most.

(14:17):
Posters draw he's going to beprobably the most important horse
in this year's Derby.
Maybe not the best, maybe notthe fastest, maybe not the winner,
maybe doesn't even hit the board.
But his presence dictates howthis entire Derby plays out.
Where he's drawn dictates howthe entire Derby will play out, regardless
of who else defects or maybejoins the field.
As long as he's in it, he'sthe most important horse.

(14:38):
He's the key to how everyoneelse will probably run.
Talk like a man who reallyenjoys his race design.
I know what you mean when youtalk about the draw for East Avenue,
but explain yourself for thosewho don't.
Basically, if he's drawn moreinside or if he gets, you know, basically
his race is over if he drawsthe 1, 2 or 3.
And if he does end up drawinga position that low, he's.

(14:59):
He's going to be sent.
He has one way of going.
We saw what happened when theytried to rate him in the Risen Star
earlier this year in February.
We saw what happened when hemissed the break and got behind horses
taking kickback in theBreeders Cup Juvenile.
If he makes the lead, he's better.
That's why Brendan Walsh putthe blinkers on him for the Bluegrass,
so he could get out of thegate well, get a clean face, do what

(15:21):
he likes to do best, which isbe on the lead.
And he has no quit from there.
Clearly, as we saw runningthose red fractions you mentioned
and still sticking aroundnarrowly losing to the horse who
was coming from last.
I mean that's a superimpressive effort.
But if he's drawn out in 19they're also going to have to use
him a lot to get him to the lead.
So and probably even moreimportant who's drawn who else is

(15:43):
drawn and wants to be forwardlike Rodriguez for instance in correlation
to East Avenue that's going tomatter to see who has inside outside
position as they make theirway to the first turn or who's pressing
who is probably even a better way.
So it'll, it'll be very fascinating.
At first when he wasn'tlooking like he was going to make
the Derby it looked like therecould be a little less pace in here.

(16:06):
But his presence makes this areally, really, really interesting
race.
You've given us the perfectsegue to number seven on the list
Rodriguez.
This is a horse that I had hadmy pet little theory that hadn't
was better than we'd seenbefore the Wood in the previous two
races because he hadn't beengiven his best chance to win with
more fancied stablemates inthere then for Wood Day he was allowed

(16:30):
to just roll and roll he did.
Scoring a hundred buyer speedfigure and getting the job done.
I would be much moreinterested in him without East Avenue,
without this, this otherpresumptive speed Japanese horse.
Not not looks or cafe.
I'm spacing on the name.
You'll probably have it at theready but anyway now it looks like

(16:52):
there's a lot of one way speed.
That's probably bad news forRodriguez but he is a progressive
type who's probably a littlebit better than his bare form suggests.
I love him in the top 10.
How, how much do you like himbeyond the obvious the fact that
you have him seventh here.
Yeah, I mean part of thereason he's here is because he's
a Bob Baffert trainee and I'vejust learned you can't fully excite

(17:14):
against him.
And he became the top horse inthe barn despite the fact he'll probably
have three runners now withCitizen Bull and and Madikit Road
also likely in the race andhow they're handled.
Who knows at this point ifthis truly is Baffert's a horse Rodriguez.
But I was a skeptic up untilthat Wood Memorial that that was

(17:34):
a, a very solidifying race ofhis true ability like you were referencing.
It doesn't seem like they,they allowed us to see his best in
the Bob Lewis or the SanFelipe and even Then he ran as well
as he could in those spotsgiven the circumstances.
The Bob Lewis he stillfinished in front of a Madiket road
right that 1, 2, 3 from thatrace are all in the Kentucky Derby

(17:54):
field as things stand and aresupposed to run if their connections
are telling the truth.
So I, I think now Rodriguezwill be used as the a horse he'll
be put most forward and how hedeals with it.
Buyer Daytona, the Japanesehorse that isn't Luxor Cafe and isn't
on this list as well as EastAvenue will once again be very based

(18:15):
on the post position draw.
But I think he showed decentfight and maybe the Bob Lewis more
so than the San Felipe when hewas beaten 11 links by journalism
but maybe that that means he.
He fights for the pace earlyand if they don't go too ridiculously
fast he could somehow hit theboard in some fashion.
He seems to have a little bitof fight in him and so that'll be
a really interesting thing tosee come derby day and see how his

(18:38):
form stacks up with some ofthese others he hasn't faced but
he's.
But he's faced a decent amountnow with you know the journalisms
the three from the Bob Lewisand now he'll get at least one from
the Wood Memorial in Grande on his.
On his form as well.
So he has a lot of overlapping class.
Despite only having one raceoutside of.
California he really ran very efficiently.

(18:58):
Looking at the time form usline back in the Wood it's going
to be a lot harder.
I think the derby pace isgoing to be a lot more attritional.
Definitely going to be onethat we'll see what the final composition
of the field is.
But from now I think it's notgoing to happen as easy of a time
bossing things.
So number six on the list.
I'm still mad about.

(19:19):
I'm still mad about this.
There were so many lists outthere online, multiple sources.
I checked when I we wereseeing Baeza before the the rescheduled
Bluegrass takes listed as 20th.
Well that wasn't right.
He's like 26th on the list.
There's gonna be some otherdropouts for sure but I'm starting

(19:41):
to think it sounds like theway the wind is blowing connections
might not even muck about withthe derby Unless there's a lot of
defections between now anddraw day.
They might just head straightto Baltimore.
I'm frustrated because Baezawould be such an interesting horse
in this spot.
Knowing what we know now.
Are you still happy having himas your number six on this top ten
Derby list?

(20:02):
I am, yeah.
Because at the end of the day,with a horse this talented, it's
worth taking a shot because hestill has two weeks to potentially
get into the race, more or less.
I think, as of now, you haveto be on the ground I think, by either
the Saturday or Sunday beforethe Derby.
So as things stand, that's 12,13 days from today when we're recording

(20:24):
this.
So there's still a chance.
And.
And he's gotten closer andcloser because of some expected defections,
like Flood Zone, Heart ofHonor, the horse from that had been
racing in Dubai that did nottake the.
The automatic bid he was given.
So that.
That's been helped.
I think as of now, he reallyonly stands behind three horses,

(20:44):
so we'll see what happens.
And a few of the horses thatare on the outside looking in, in
front of him are not fullyconfirmed to run in the Derby, like
Built and Neo Equals have bothbeen suggested.
They might run Built maybe inthe pat de Mile and, you know, Equals
maybe in the American turf.
I don't know what the decidingfactors are on that, but obviously
that helps Baez's case thatneither one of those horses are fully

(21:06):
locked in to the KentuckyDerby, even if they were getting
the chance to run, given aspot in the starting gate.
So that's encouraging.
And he's more than deservingthan those horses.
And I think everybody'sopinion to actually get into the
race based off that big runagainst Journalism.
I will say, you know, he.
He did get the setup where,you know, we.
We talked so much in all thesepreps about how Baffert had been

(21:28):
able to work out these greatsetups for his horses.
And then here we get to thebiggest prep of all, the Santa Anita
Derby, and John Sheriffs helpsblow the race up with his maiden,
Westwood, who actually stillran a very good third, still beat
Citizen Boland Barnes.
But point being, he really gotBaes at the run of the race and still
lost a journalism at the endof the day, but a valiant second
in your first start againstwinners in a grade one, that's.

(21:52):
I mean, that's.
That's so strong.
So even if it isn't here, thePreakness would be an amazing race
to see him in.
But I'm.
I'm crossing my fingers andfeeling a little more optimistic
he'll get in than I did a week ago.
That's cool.
That's good.
That's some good info in there.
We're going to go I'mactually, we're going to drill down
on that actually and gothrough a couple of runners because
you're probably more on top ofthe day to day news.
But my first question to youis who were you more impressed with,

(22:16):
Slash?
Who ran the better race in theSanta Anita Derby, Journalism or
Baeza?
I'm still going to give it toJournalism because I thought he had,
you know, obviously he hadthat trouble heading into the turn
and that took a lot out of him.
And because Westwood was ableto get Baeza the trip he wanted,
obviously, you know, the pacewas quick enough to where Journalism

(22:39):
could.
Could pick him off as well.
But Baeza stayed relativelyclean throughout the race and I think
that's one concern I'd havefor him coming into the Derby is
he really hasn't been beataround like some of these other good
horses.
Most of horses higher up onthis list have had bad trips in the
past and that's why I havethem up so high because they've capitalized
on those often or still put upbig numbers in the process and then

(23:02):
obviously have their cleantriple wins in their form as well.
So for this guy, he reallyhasn't had that awful trip that he
rose above.
He's had things go his own wayin his last two wins.
And so because of that, I doget a little skeptical that come
Derby day it's all a bit toomuch for him.

(23:23):
But.
But we'll see how that goes.
But to answer your fullquestion, I'd still want Journalism
every single time ahead of himin the Kentucky Derby.
But I still think Baez isworthwhile and if Journalism doesn't
have his, his A race, he'sabsolutely worth considering.
He might be the main threat ifhe makes the race.
Honestly to me, because Iwould rate them all, punt on my own

(23:45):
question and say I'd rate thempretty much equally just from a dynamics
point of view and from the waythe track was playing point of view.
I mean time form had it brightblue as in favoring closers.
And Baeza, while on pacefigures ran efficiently more or less
through the race, did makethat aggressive move in the middle
of that race.

(24:06):
So it's a tough call honestlyto me but for.
For that one.
But if he makes it, he's goingto be fascinating.
So with that in mind, let'sjust go through quickly.
Citizen Bull, they say theythe first 12 on the points list,
they're going we don't need towaste time with that first one.
I look at that.
I have any question is is the13 spot.
It's actually not 13 because Idon't have these cells.

(24:26):
Right.
So it's.
Sorry about this.
I've created a mess.
I think he's about 10th on thelist then Citizen Bull.
But everything you're hearing,he's going, right?
Yeah.
It sounds like all theBafferts who could make the field
will be going.
So him and Madikit Road.
Yeah, the horses you wouldn'tkind of expect to go, honestly off
those last efforts, they seemlocked in at this point.

(24:48):
All right, I've got this, I'vegot this in correct order now.
So Sisson bull is currently 11th.
Number 12, Owen Almighty.
He's not going, is he?
No, he's out.
Yeah.
They, they, they say he'sgoing straight to the Bat Day Mile.
They're going to cut him backlike, like they probably should have.
Like Brian lynch wanted to.
And then the ownership pushedhim to try one more Derby Prep.
Derby fever is a powerful.
It's a powerful disease.

(25:09):
Flood zone.
He's not going, is he?
Yes.
Yeah, they pulled him as well.
I don't know if they havegiven out a different target, but
thankfully he's.
He's out as well.
So then Heart of Honor we knowis not coming, Correct?
Correct.
And then that brings us down to.
Well, we know Flying Mohawk is going.
We do think Grande is going, right?
Grande is going for sure.

(25:30):
I think they already named a rider.
John Velasquez, I believe.
Hopefully I'm not speaking outof line there, but I'm pretty sure
I saw something he's riding.
So they got someone lined up and.
Everything and Madicott is in.
We.
You just said of as part ofthat Baffer Group and then you said
they're.
They're deciding about Builtand Neo Equos, if my math is correct.

(25:51):
Does that mean the thingbetween Baeza and the getting in
is.
Is the decisions of render judgment.
Assuming the Built at NeoEquus camps make good on what you
were saying before.
Yeah, that would be the case.
So there's.
There's technically threehorses keeping him out of the race.
Two of them could go other spots.
We'll see what their receiverdoes to them.

(26:13):
But because they'd be muchbetter off in those other races.
I think another kind ofuniversal opinion and the American
turf being a grade one is hugeincentive for a horse like Neo Echoes
to go there because obviouslyyou can get that major win Million
dollar race without thepressures and the outcomes.
The fallouts of the Kentucky.
Yeah, I could just be renderedjudgment who I imagine would run

(26:34):
knowing the connections andhow, how they like to be in these
big races.
But of course, all it takes isanybody to have a bad day between
now and, you know, well, Iguess it is an entry day now and
whatever day they need to beon the grounds for that decision
to be made.
So.
Hold the phone.
Maybe Baeza makes it yet.
Let's get to this top five,starting with a very.
I keep calling him a verydivisive runner because it seems

(26:55):
like Sandman really has hisfans and then he has his.
Well, JK is the, the, thepresident of the detractors.
He's been saying for, youknow, ever since the, the first big
trip that he had, that he wasthe kind of horse that was going
to be everybody's wise guyhorse in the Derby and he wasn't
buying it.
Looked pretty darn good inArkansas, though, mowing down that
field.

(27:16):
I don't mind at all having himin the top five.
Even though he's long onexperience for a modern three year
old, he is a horse that feelslike there's still some scope for
improvement.
Definitely.
Definitely.
He's still getting better.
When we did one of these ahandful of months ago, I said, this
is a horse who's going toreally excel come races like the

(27:36):
Travers and maybe even theBreeders Cup Classic because he has
that progressive pedigree,that progressive physical build where
he's just getting stronger asthe races get longer.
And he's doing it all right.
And now he's.
He is starting to find thattop form.
The Derby is going to be adifferent question because he's still
very green.
And I think that's more thananything the biggest issue with him

(27:56):
is he still hasn't figured itall out down the lane.
He was drifting in and out.
The Derby's not a race he canreally afford to make mistakes.
I can't count too many horseswho made mistakes in the Kentucky
Derby and even cracked, youknow, the try or the super, unless
they were supremely good andthey had to overcome those types
of trips.
Sierra Leone comes to mind.

(28:17):
Right.
Got his head.
If he runs, if he wantsstraight, either.
If he runs straight, either heor Forever Young win, but.
Exactly, exactly.
Yeah, I think that's, that's aperfect example.
So, you know, Sandman, he will factor.
He knows he always putsforward a good run.
I think that that's worth saying.
But how much he gets in hisown way, how far off the pace he

(28:38):
is early on, that's.
That's going to be a huge thatwill decide everything for him in
the Kentucky Derby andobviously with the Arkansas Derby
he got the perfect setup andreally in the Rebel too.
So back to back races whereeverything went his way.
One, he won, win one solid third.
Let's say we do get a fewdefections or things go wild in the

(29:01):
Derby at this point and thereisn't as much pace.
Does he have that kicked tohang with them?
Remains to be seen.
So you have to be a littleskeptical on him.
I don't blame anyone like JKfor being skeptical on him.
And really I know JK's biggestthing is the price.
This horse will be hammered.
I will not be surprised if heis anywhere from second to third
choice, fourth choice in thisDerby taking a little bit more money

(29:23):
than he probably should.
Yeah, at that price I feellike he's one you're supposed to
maybe, as much as it pains meto admit, just accept that JK is
right and, and oppose or musemore defensively.
Certainly a horse you'replaying verticals.
I'm not leaving this horse out underneath.
I guess the other interestingstoryline here and it ties exactly

(29:43):
in with the later maturingpedigree angle.
Tap It.
Who?
I don't know.
You.
I'm going to ask you to do thebroadcasting sin of asking you the
question I have no idea theanswer to.
What is the best finish for aTap it in the Kentucky Derby?
You have any idea?
Oh, that.
That's a good question.
I can think of all the horseswho are making the runs I can picture
Sandman making in my mindwhich is just flying late and still

(30:05):
crying out for another quartermile like, like Tap Writ when, when
he lost the Derby, went on towin the Belmont, he was flying late.
I mean he was looking for athird or fourth wire, forget a second
one.
So I, you know, that's kind ofwhat I picture for Sandman is, is
what happened with, withTapret if you, if you want a good
comparison.
But a horse that's going to beprogressive, maybe even into even

(30:27):
a mile and a quarter.
Belmont probably suits thishorse better than a 20 course Kentucky
Derby.
But a lot of talent here.
But maybe Derby day is not his day.
Yeah, Tap It.
They've.
I mean I feel like from everygrade one dirt race that happens
for three year olds at andbeyond after the first Saturday in
May, I think Tapit's won everysingle one and no Derby yet.
So we'll see if Sandman can,can change that around for that old

(30:51):
led, that big gray legend.
Tap.
Tap it.
Tapan street, number four onthe list, a horse that I feel like,
weirdly for a horse that hassuch obvious credentials at this
point, has been maybe a tinylittle bit under the radar in a lot
of the Derby coverage thatI've been paying attention to.
All he did was win the FloridaDerby traditionally very much of
a, of a key prep and he lookedgood doing it.

(31:15):
And he's in, he's in the right hands.
You obviously have him high upon the list here.
Give me your assessment of hischances in the Derby.
No, I definitely agree thathe's being a little underrated right
now.
It's probably because hedoesn't have that big breakout figure
for people to latch on to andI totally get that aspect.
But his progression and whathe has shown in his two graded stakes

(31:39):
starts, both lit up with, withstrong form since then from other
horses, I think that all hasto be taken into consideration.
I think the fact he beatSovereignty, even if it wasn't Sovereignty's
best configuration, besttrack, which we'll talk about in
a second, that's so impressive.
To beat that horse, to run agood second to Burnham Square, who

(32:00):
was way more experienced thanyou, only your second start for Tapan
street and to still run secondto a future Grade one winner like
Burnham Square, that's hugely impressive.
And when you go back and watchthat race, this is, you know, at
first I really didn't give himmuch credit out of the Holy bowl,
but when I went back andwatched it more, I was impressed
by how well he settled fromfurther off the pace than he probably

(32:22):
wanted to be, made a strongmove, did get passed down the stretch
and kept fighting.
It wasn't like he stopped whenBurnham Square got to him.
Then he goes back in theFlorida Derby and he really puts
it all together.
I think this is the horse he'sjust getting better with every start,
has overcome adversity alreadyand a few races, so, so that's key.
And I think he's probably themost malleable horse of this Derby

(32:43):
field.
That cold battle we talkedabout earlier, having one from far
back, having one on the lead,having one in between.
Pan street maybe hasn't donethat, but he showed good speed over
seven furlongs to sit reallyclose to the pace.
He came from second to last inthe Holy bowl and he's had a really
good mid pack trip in theFlorida Derby.
So the fact that in threestarts he's already gotten all that
experience is reallyencouraging to me because normally

(33:05):
I wouldn't like a horse withthis few Starts this is always a
big thing for me in the Derbyis, is that punched in the mouth
factor and horses who havereally been exposed to uncomfortable
situations and risen above andmost horses with that few starts
haven't done that or have andthey've run pretty flat.
This guy has just done it.
All right.
So I, I'm really encouraged by that.

(33:27):
I think the fact Brad Cox wasbased in Florida this year, really
had his best stock in Floridathis year where instead of maybe
in fairgrounds or Oak Lawn oreven in the Bluegrass, this was clearly
the horse that he felt wasbest to have at his quote unquote
home track this, this winter.
So that's also encouraging tome that Brad Cox seems to have supreme

(33:48):
confidence in this horse ashe's progressing towards the Derby.
And it doesn't surprise me theway that horses are trained now that
you'd be a little bit moreopen to the lack of experience.
And we have seen a Derbywinner with this few starts in the,
in the past.
And it feels to me like you'regoing to see more inexperienced horses

(34:09):
doing well as opposed to fewer.
It's interesting.
This year there are a handfulof them who have something akin to
the traditional foundationthat we used to look for in the Derby.
Before your time really even,I'd say.
But I have to think that it'snot as much of a question mark as
it would have been even 10years ago.
Yeah, yeah, absolutely.

(34:30):
I mean it's still concerningbecause at the end of the day you're,
you're working out a 20 horsefield and the more experience absolutely.
The better for me as Ihandicap the Derby.
But the having three starts isprobably as good of a number as you'll
get for a horse that it'sstill considered inexperienced.
And obviously his form.

(34:51):
You really can't poke anyholes in it.
Let's move on to Luxor Cafe,the Monster pods.
When I looked, this was theone that was doing the most business,
which I guess makes sense.
People looking and searchingfor info because this horse is a
foreign runner and he's interesting.
He's another one that's a bit,a bit divisive and figure wise we're

(35:12):
gonna have our officialJapanese equivalent figures as part
of our in the money plus package.
But I'll give a sneak previewto what my understanding is from
what I've looked at which isRandy Moss mentioned 9,293 for his
best guess for the figurethat's going to be lower than what
our translated figure looks like.

(35:35):
But the Translated figure isstill going to leave plenty of room
between Luxor Cafe and journalism.
So that's the kind of range Ithink we're going to land in for
our, our, our predicted figures.
But this is a horse where you can.
I don't mind if somebodyalmost takes the figures and throws
them out the window.
Based on how visuallyimpressive the Fukariu Run was, what

(35:58):
do you think the ceiling isfor Luxor Cafe?
And my theory, talking toRandy, was that, unfortunately, I
think that everybody's now onboard with this.
The Japanese are going to winthe Derby within the next few years.
I think this horse couldactually be over bet because I don't
think he's as good as ForeverYoung was.
And we saw how hard, you know,it is even for a horse of that special

(36:18):
talent level to win in theDerby, how everything needs to go
right.
And it was also not a fastDerby last year.
Anyway, I've monologued toomuch on Luxor Cafe.
I'd love to hear your extended thoughts.
Yeah, I think it's.
It's trying to find the fineline between what this horse can
actually do and what value youwant to take in the Derby.
I think the sky's the limitfor this guy.

(36:39):
He's got a great pedigree to start.
He's a full brother to TafePharaoh, who is a champion dirt horse
in Japan.
Made one or two starts in theMiddle east and didn't get good trips
in either of those races.
But that's a horse who I wishhad come to America at some point,
whether it was the Derby earlyon in his career or a race like the
Breeders Cup Classic.

(37:00):
So he obviously has that goingfor him.
And so that kind of gives youa glimpse into what his progression
could be, which is a championdirt horse someday.
And then like you said, thevalue aspect, I do think that the
Japanese are sitting on a.
On a Derby win, and I thinkthis horse has every chance to do
it.
Obviously, there's a few namesstanding in front of him, most notably

(37:20):
journalism, but he, hedefinitely can factor because he's
already proven his form alittle bit.
He's beaten Admired Daytona,the UAE Derby winner on two occasions.
Now, once was a little bitmore of a dog fight back in a maiden
race in November, that hestill overcame that.
That horse and beat him.
Then he did it in the Hyacinth.
Two starts to go for both of them.

(37:40):
And that was really not his configuration.
Both those wins came over onemile, and I don't think that's his
best Distance.
I think that his two mile andeighth races are his best career
races to date.
And the Fukuri win was sostrong, you could just tell how much
momentum he was gaining as therace went on and, and really leveled

(38:02):
off very nicely down this stretch.
So I love the proven form.
I love that he's provenhimself over the distance.
He seems like he can work outsome decent trips from the spots
he wants to or is most comfortable.
So all of those things goingfor him, it does just come down to
at the end of the day, theprice you'll take on.
It really depends.
I obviously journalism goingto be the favorite.
It depends what happens withthe Sandman from there.

(38:24):
It depends what happens withthe Sovereignty from there.
Maybe even a little bit of aBurnham Square.
But I wouldn't be surprised ifthis horse is more bet than a tap
and straight of Burnham Square.
Maybe in that 6 to 8 to 1range, which honestly is a price
I would take on him.
Anything less, that's whereI'd get concerned.
Gotcha.
I don't think you'll see lessthan that unless there's a real shakeup
in the market.

(38:44):
And I don't know.
He's also the kind of horsethat might play considerably better
in horizontal.
So I wouldn't give up on theidea of using him on some tickets
somewhere.
If you like him, you, even ifthat win is a little skinny for you,
I would need a little bit myown personal handicap from this far
out.
I'd probably need a little bitlonger than, than that price range
for him.

(39:04):
Do you have any of your ownpersonal figure insights or assessment
into what kind of number youthink he would have run last time
in the, in the Fukaru?
Or is it more like what I wassaying, that it almost doesn't matter
because of the other factorsaround him.
I'm gonna go with with thelatter there.
I, I just the how well hefinished off that race.
I can trust the Japanese formbased off of how well admired Daytona

(39:28):
again ran in Dubai.
So.
So I was skeptical up to that point.
But when he put up thateffort, jumped up big time in at
Maidan, that told me all Ineeded to know about this horse that
he was.
He was clearly a cut above theothers from his nation.
That was something ForeverYoung did not have going for him
at all last year.
Forever Young beat nobodyheading into last year.
It was pure, you know, visualwins and obviously the, the calculated

(39:54):
figures from there.
Yeah, so that helped him, buthe had no backlash.
This horse has much more goingfor him on that front.
It's a great example of justdifferent ways of looking at the
world.
You're looking at it from amore traditionally it's a European
perspective where you're beingvery form based about it.
I'm being a bit of a figuremonkey and the reason I'm not giving

(40:14):
the UAE Derby much credit isbecause I'm pretty sure that was
a very slow figure time wisewhen you look at who was competing.
Not that, I mean, I guess itdepends if you think Forever Young
ran his race in the DubaiWorld Cup.
I'm basing, I'm basing it kindof off hit show, figuring Forever
Young regressed wildly figure wise.

(40:37):
And if you make a calculationbased on hit show, yeah, that becomes
a mid-80s, low-80s, even UAE Derby.
And it, it allows me todiscount these things.
I may be looking at it all wrong.
Anyway, we're going to bediving deep into the Japanese figures
and maybe I'll land where youare, but right now I'm wanting north

(40:57):
of of 10 to 1.
I'll do a full market recapactually internationally at the end
of the show.
But let's talk about the top two.
We move next to Sovereignty.
It's funny, the last race notbeing super impressive for Sovereignty
on one level, of course it's disappointing.
You want to see this horsethat had was number one on our list,
slash your list.

(41:17):
You want to see a visuallyimpressive effort heading into the
Kentucky Derby.
On another level, maybe thisis exactly what he needed to fill
out the, the bingo card forthe in the Money Players podcast
Mott with the target and thatwasn't the target.
I don't know.
I mean, now when I talk aboutjournalism and sovereignty, when
I, when I've been talkingabout it publicly, I feel like I'm

(41:38):
supposed to be picking journalism.
The enthusiasm I've had for him.
But when I sit down with thePPS and I look at the prices, I think
there's still an argumentmaybe to be made for sovereignty.
As crazy as that sounds, ultimately.
I just mentioned the figuremonkey that I am.
I think looking at the two PPcuts, there's a reason journalism
is going to be half the price,if not shorter.

(42:00):
But can you make a case toyourself that sovereignty is still
the one you want for thisyear's Kentucky Derby, even over
journalism?
Absolutely.
Absolutely.
I, I think I, I, I, like youmentioned, I was disappointed with
the Florida Derby initiallywhen he had lost it, but then I remembered
that even heading into theFountain of Youth, I was not confident

(42:20):
that Gulfstream was the trackfor sovereignty to thrive.
And he barely thrived.
When we go back and watch theFountain of Youth, he had to do everything
in his power to catch RiverThames late.
With that short stretch, Idon't care if the run up was extended.
That was not his configuration.
Right.
And even the mile and aneighth there, still not easy for
a horse to come from that farback and win.
Substitute rider.
I mean, Manny Franco is verycapable, but Junior Alvarado had

(42:43):
clearly figured out what to dowith this horse who I don't know
if he's necessarily tricky,but has.
Has a way of going and havingto adjust on the fly like that maybe
wasn't the easiest thing.
And, and this is another onewhere if you just go through the
form, I'm a little surprisedat how little steam I've seen and
maybe I'm just looking in thewrong places.
But for that win in the StreetSense last year, coming from dead

(43:05):
last as a maiden in your firstever two turn race, mowing down a
field like they're not even inthe race and beating them by at least
five lengths.
And then the horse you beat inTiz Tastic and the horse right behind
him in Sandman, both beinghorses going to win 100 point Derby
Preps.
I know it's back in October,but that's at Churchill Downs and

(43:26):
overcoming all of those otherfactors I mentioned that, that that
should be the.
A much more key race thananything he's done this year.
Bill Mott's essentially givinghim two solid preps to get him fit
and ready for a Kentucky Derby.
But I don't, I don't think,obviously neither one of those is
where he wanted them to shine.
He did not need that horse towin either of those preps.

(43:47):
He got one win, got a littleunlucky in the second.
Just once again came down to configuration.
But back at Churchill Downs,this is going to be a much better
horse who's going to run amuch bigger figure because he's back
where he wants to be.
So for that reason he's stillbehind Journalism, but the gap is
not gigantic from 1 to 2 right now.
Very interesting.
And I'm absolutely hearing it.

(44:07):
You look and you see thatStreet Sense third race of the year.
This the third race of the year.
Heading under the Twin Spires.
He's an A on all tickets.
I'm going to be very chalkythis year, I'm afraid.
Let's go to Journalism, who'snumber one on the list.
We've talked about this race already.
So we probably don't have tospend too much time on it.

(44:27):
Do you have any concerns aboutjournalism in this spot, other than
the obvious, which I wouldimagine is, you know, is he going
to be able to get a triphaving to pass presumably half the
field?
At least that's the biggest concern.
But from there his form speaksfor himself.
He's handled himself well.
I love that he got intotrouble and the Santa Anita Derby
and overcame that because thatwould have been my knock on him was

(44:50):
that he kind of just did hisown thing, but he somehow found trouble
in a five horse field and wasstill able to overcome it.
So obviously reallyencouraging things from there.
The form has been backed upwith Rodriguez being dusted by him
in the San Felipe and thenwinning the Wood.
So no, it is all lining up forhim to be the Derby winner.
I really do think so.

(45:11):
He's bred for it physically.
He just looks like a cut abovesome of most of these other horses
in this Kentucky Derby andobviously he's got the figures to
boot.
So he is, he really is thecomplete package.
And it's just going to be amatter of keeping the cleanest trip
you can and having the Derbyluck that you need.
Because at the end of the dayevery, every horse that wins Kentucky

(45:33):
Derby has a little bit of luckon their side.
So we'll see how it all shakes out.
But.
But he really is just thecomplete package it looks like.
Let's take a look at some prices.
We'll start with journalism.
I'll cite the prices from whatI call the sharpest book and then
I'll give you a snapshot ofwhat it looks like elsewhere.
Journalism.
3 to 1 favorite there.

(45:55):
As short as 11 to 4 in places.
As high at a couple of outlierbooks as seven to two.
Sovereignty sevens and sixesacross the board.
Seven at the sharpest book.
Luxor Cafe.
This is an interesting onebecause the Sharp book has him the
highest of anybody at 11 to 1because maybe being a little more
numerically oriented there, asshort as 7 to 1 in other places.

(46:20):
And all the numbers in between7 and 11 filled out variously.
Tapan street, another onewhere there's some disagreement.
Twelves at the sharpest book,as short as eight at other places
that might just be bookies whodon't do a lot of American racing
trying to hold the horse safe.
Sandman.
12 at the sharpest book.
Tens and twelves everywhere.

(46:41):
Burnham Square.
14 at the sharpest book.
As short as tens in a coupleplaces, but mostly 14s across.
Tis tastic pretty much universally.
20s, a few 16s thrown in there.
Citizen Bull, interestingly.
Interestingly, the sharp bookhas him pretty short at 16 compared
to the 25s that are available.

(47:02):
But those prices there are allover the shop.
The market has no idea what todo with Citizen Bull.
I think it's safe to say, sayfinal gambit.
25s at the sharpest book.
Baeza not even priced up everywhere.
20 at the sharpest book.
25s and even some 33savailable in one place.
That might be a littleinteresting international people
if you want to play dice with.
If he's going to get in the field.

(47:22):
If you can find the 33 to 1,that's not bad.
Cold Battle 25 at the sharpest book.
Rodriguez is an interesting one.
14 at the sharpest book.
And.
And some outliers up to like33 to 1.
Grande listed as 25 East Avenue.
16 at the sharpest book.
They're clearly orientedtowards these speedrunners.

(47:43):
Admire Daytona 40 publisher.
25 at the sharpest book.
40s and some other places.
And I think that's the lastrelevant price.
River Thames is still listedall over the betting.
Is he?
He's not going, is he?
He is.
It sounds like they haven'tconfirmed a rider yet, but I believe
I read the other day he couldstill be in the derby field.

(48:04):
You know, that's okay.
Interesting.
But he is an element of acertain pace element.
So that's another positive forthe journalisms and the sovereignties
of the world.
No doubt about it.
And then, you know, bigger prices.
The rest chunk of gold to me.
Kind of an interesting long shot.
33 at the sharpest book.
50s elsewhere.
Hearing these prices, do you.

(48:25):
And I, you know, it's mean ofme to hold your feet to the fire
with no draw and weeks out.
But hearing the prices,combining them with your analysis,
do you have a gut as to whoyour official selection might end
up being and.
Or maybe the most interestinglong shot for you to throw in there
as well.
I mean I have a clear top two.
I think I have for about amonth and a half now.

(48:47):
And that's journalism andsovereignty we'll see on Luxor Cafe.
But when I get down to howjuicy the price is based off those
numbers on Japan street, if Ican get a 12 to 15 one, which is
what I kind of expect and getthe right draw for him, that's probably
where I'd lean from a value perspective.
But.
But being more realistic andgetting into the multis and whatnot,

(49:10):
I, I think that's where, youknow, journalism, you know, you get
skinny on top and then havefun on the, on the bottom ends of
those ones and see whathappens because that's, that's probably
where you're going to bemaking your money in this year's
Derby.
The Derby is a funny race.
You know, some race on a Tuesday.
The idea that you could messaround with the top three choices
in the betting and getanything outsized or worth pursuing

(49:33):
would be kind of silly.
But in the Derby, I think youcan, you know, there'll be so much
money mixed around.
It's such a big field.
I'm not going to shy away ifmy top two picks are the top two
in the market.
You can still go to war withthat opinion and make some money.
Yeah, yeah, absolutely.
There'll be, there'll beplenty of good opportunities.
So it's going to be very exciting.

(49:54):
And I think we saw last yearthe two best horses did not win the
Derby.
So that, that just shows youwhat, what could happen on the first
Saturday in May.
Right?
The two best horses in the, inthe race, you mean, let alone what
they did going forward, thenyou have to go a lot further down
to, to.
It's chaotic and, and it's.
When they're laboratories forchaos, you can't be completely shocked

(50:15):
when, when crazy things happen.
A bit dirt.
One more Derby bettingquestion for you that's more general
in nature, a little less meanspirited, a little less feet to your
fire.
What about your generalwagering approach on Derby day?
What, which pools are youinvolved in?
Are you trying to hit it outof the park with the pick five?
Are you betting verticals?
Do you stick to win?
How do you approach it?

(50:36):
I'm probably vertical heavy.
Early on in my gambling careerI, I tried to get go for the home
runs and I, I quickly washumbled and said let's, let's be
a little more logical here.
And, and so that's when I, Istarted to lean more towards the
verticals and started to havea little more fun.

(50:56):
You know, I, I think that thisyear that's going to be the definite
lean as I kind of referencedearlier, just with, with how top
heavy it seems.
And, and then I can, I, I seemto be better at picking horses that
finish third and fourth andactually win.
Actually that's, that'stypically where I burn myself.
Getting the nice price inunderneath and then not having the
winner somehow.
So that, that's, that's theultimate goal this year is to, to

(51:19):
finally have it all come together.
That could be a real benefitat a bet like the Derby Super Facto,
which I am assuming will onceagain be the topic of our how to
make $100,000 at the KentuckyDerby video.
We had our friend Eric Bileckpull some great numbers last year.
If you could find that pricehorse to come in third and fourth.
I don't think in truth you'regoing to be getting $100,000 payout
or anything if we're rightabout how formful it is.

(51:43):
But then again if you hit itenough times, you can, you can get
it up there.
It's, it can be it, it's oftenvery, very much of an overlay when
it comes to that.
I can't resist that Derby Daypick five and was fortunate the other
year thanks to listening tosome other people on our final Answers
panel.
Specifically who PhilipShelton throwing in a couple in spread

(52:04):
races and ended up hitting itwith Mage that ended up paying for
a lot of of losing pick fivesalong the way.
We'll be covering that and ourwe got our final Answer show coming
once again.
It's going to be live inLexington Wednesday night Derby Week.
I think there's still a fewtickets available.
I foolishly don't have a linkat the ready.

(52:24):
We did send it out in a newsletter.
If you subscribe to ournewsletter you can look it up there.
But if you're looking toattend, let me know and we'll, we'll
get things sorted out.
We got a great team this year.
Philip is back with us andMaggie Wolfendale going to be in
the chair as well along withJK and myself.
Always a fun time down therein Lexington with our with our friends

(52:47):
at TaylorMade slash Medallion Racing.
What about you?
What is your Derby Day goingto look like this year?
That's our second day ofentries so I'll be busy in the morning
but then we'll be we'll justbe hanging out in the afternoon enjoying
the big one.
I I I have a thing.
I cannot watch the Derby withtoo many people.
I I get way too stressed outboth just from a from all the angles,

(53:09):
from the wagering angle, fromthe horse safety angle.
I get, I get stressed outabout all these things so I just
horse.
I I need a small, small groupof people who understand that I'm
going to be stressed all hellduring the last hour or so before
the race.
I've got a funny one this yearthat I haven't said this publicly
yet, but Perrin is actually ina really cool concert Derby Night

(53:31):
So while I will be atChurchill during the week, I got
to come back.
I'm going to not see this one live.
It'll be the first one I'vemissed in quite a number of years.
And I think that means.
I think the concert startslate enough that I have to make a
decision.
Do I want to do a Derby party?
Understanding that that willput me in something that annoys me.

(53:53):
This is a pet peeve of mine.
And you probably can relate tothis, too.
I'm sure you can.
In fact, where you've writtenand you've done all these show, you've.
You've basically done nothingbut give your opinion for three weeks.
And then someone, just afriend who has clearly not been following
your content, will say to you,oh, who do you like in the Derby?
And I, rather than answer, I'mtempted to just send them, like,

(54:14):
17 links.
Yeah, I think that's a.
That's very funny you say thatbecause that's where I.
What happens to me every day.
Like, you guys, I know youdon't really care, but I'm tired
of talking about this.
Like, I just.
I put my bets together already.
Like, here, just look at my.
Look at my phone.
See what bets I put in andthen figure out the numbers from
there.
Yeah, work it out yourselves, people.

(54:36):
Maybe I'll come up with a morediplomatic response than that.
Eric, so great having you onhere, not just today, but all.
All season long, all the workyou do behind the scenes.
And very happy that even inyour new role, while you won't be
able to do the full depth andbreadth of things you've been doing
for us over the last couple ofyears, that you'll still be hopefully

(54:57):
able to be involved on the.
On the content side as long asthe races aren't happening at your
home track.
Yes, absolutely.
I mean, it's.
It's fun to do.
I mean, we've been doing thisfor over three years now, this.
This little team whatnot.
So it feels.
Feels a little shorter than that.
It's gone by pretty quick, butI enjoy it every time.
And the Derby's the best onebecause that's when things get a
little crazy and we get tohave a lot of fun putting out all

(55:19):
this good content.
Exactly.
And you've been a huge part ofit and just, I don't say enough how
important you are to that team.
And so glad you'll be stayinginvolved and chiming in where appropriate
going forward.
And, hey, hopefully helping uswith next year's Kentucky Derby as
well.
But we don't have to worryabout that until the first Sunday
in May.
That's the first time we'reallowed to talk about next year's

(55:41):
Derby and it's just been apleasure to have you, my friend.
Yeah, no thank you.
It's good.
As always.
Good stuff.
Eric DeCoster thank you onemore time.
Thanks to everybody out therefor supporting these shows.
Fun to do some audio only content.
We don't do enough of thatthese days.
We'll thank our foundingpartners at Ten Strike Racing.
We love to root for the purpleand black around here.

(56:02):
Also, we will talk about ourcharity partners, Therapeutic Horses
of Saratoga.
Kim we are doing such a greatjob there with a great team.
Meg and everybody else overthere at THS learn more about the
work they do helping humansand helping horses in the money podcast.com
Horses is the place to learn more.
Most of all though, I want tothank all of you, the listeners for

(56:24):
making these shows so much funto do.
This show has been aproduction of in the Money Media.
I'm Peter Thomas Fornitel.
May you win all your photos.