Players' Podcast: Randy Moss on the Magnitude Figure + Rebel Stakes Preview

PTF kicks off the new show with Nick Tammaro as they look back at a weekend full of stakes action from coast-to-coast including the key three-year-old prep races the Risen Star, Rachel Alexandra, and Sunland Derby.

Then NBC's Randy Moss stops by to discuss the giant 108 Beyer Speed Figure received by Magnitude in the Risen Star. Is it legit? (Spoiler alert: YES).

Last but not least, Mikee P (Mike Pribozie) is back with PTF to take an early look at next weekend's Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park.

Takeaways:

• This podcast episode effectively highlights key stakes races including the Risen Star and the Sunland Derby, showcasing significant performances from three-year-olds.
• Randy Moss confirms the legitimacy of Magnitude's impressive 108 Beyer Speed Figure, emphasizing that it accurately reflects his exceptional performance.
• The discussion emphasizes the importance of context in evaluating speed figures, considering factors such as track bias and race conditions.
• Mikee P provides valuable insights into the upcoming Rebel Stakes, analyzing the competitive field and potential standout horses for the Kentucky Derby trail.

Episode Transcript

(00:00):
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(00:42):
Hello and welcome to the inthe Money players podcast.
This is our show for February18th recapping President's Day weekend.
Peter Thomas Fornitel backwith you in Brooklyn once again joining
joined by our usual recappingaficionado, he's Nick Tamaro.
Nick, how are things there in Texas?
Things are going great.
Pete and I will say that wepicked the right week to take until

(01:03):
Tuesday to do our show.
So it, it worked out great.
But yeah, another big weekendbehind us and obviously we are now
full bore on the road to theKentucky Derby.
If we did the show yesterday,it would have been, you know, 45
minutes on magnitude in the figure.
Instead what we're going to dois have a whole separate video talking
about the figure makingprocess with Randy Moss and Magnitude

(01:24):
in there.
So we're not really going tospend a whole lot of time on the
figure.
But we do have to start with Magnitude.
Even though we did receivethat information this morning that
he will not be competing inthe Triple Crown races, He earned
a 108 buyer speed figure atfairgrounds on Saturday.
Where did this come from, Nick?
I mean, boy, did that come outof nowhere.

(01:45):
Yeah, you know, one of thosescenarios where I think speedhorse
with a pretty easy leadrunning everybody else off their
feet probably on a part of theracetrack that was a little bit of
an advantage, maybe not amassive advantage and just kind of
freaked and you know, it happens.
There are times where ithappens and it just so happened that

(02:06):
him, he showed up in a big wayand kind of nobody else did.
You know, when the favoritecapitulated at the quarter pole very
easily and without much of awhimper, it made it so that something
wonky could definitely happen.
And that's exactly whathappened is he was able to power
on and pull clear late and winby a large margin.

(02:26):
So was not as, as surprisingto me seeing Ben Curtis winning the
windshield silks for SteveAsmussen wire to wire had was exactly
what happened in the HoustonLadies Classic.
And I texted Steve Sundaymorning and I said, you and Ben Curtis
have a good thing going.
Sending Speed horses on live rails.
And he said thanks was a huge run.
So it was, it was a good, goodresult for them for sure.

(02:48):
And get Steve back into the.
Well, it got Steve back intothe mix for a day or so before the
unfortunate news.
The, the bias is worth pausing on.
I think I, it looked like abias track to me.
You, you seem to have some hesitation.
One of the things that made meconvinced about that was it sounded
like from post race interviewsthat Steve had said well earlier
in the card we'd had a couple horses.

(03:10):
This, these were, this is notan exact quote, this is me just putting
words in math.
But basically a couple of liveclosers in the middle of track didn't
run well.
A couple of rail horses andspeed horses out running their odds
and they basically came upwith the scenario to, to send the
horse because of the way hefelt like the track was playing.
I figure if you know thehorsemen are starting to notice the

(03:31):
bias, it's probably a bias.
But you sounded like you hadat least a little doubt.
Well, I mean I think there wasdefinitely an advantage to being
towards the inside and I thinkit became more pronounced as the
day went on.
I think the race that Stevewas referencing when he was asked
it in his interview with ScottHazelton was likely the.
The win by Yinzer who was.
Is a horse that Steve trainswho won the ninth with Keith Asmusson

(03:53):
aboard.
And Yinzer was a horse thathad run, he had run okay, he hadn't
run great.
He had been involved in somefast paces.
He had had those work againsthim and he came out on on Saturday
and wired a field at 11 to 1and earned a speed figure that ended
up being an 85 which was 10points higher than his best before
that.

(04:14):
And it really played out likea race that was run on a biased racetrack.
It was just a old fashionedmerry go round.
Nobody moved.
Ginzer was on the rail insidethe whole way.
I mean it was one to two paththe whole way.
Nobody really moved from theback of the pack whatsoever, which
included a highly regardedBrad Cox firster who apparently had
been training well.
And so then you had hall ofFame and the M Shaft sit on the inside

(04:36):
much of the way, tip out andgradually wear down.
Korabino Amo who had been acouple of pass off the rail.
But Mox Bay who had been onthe rail stayed on well to finish
third.
So I think there's plenty ofevidence there.
And so I think it was, I thinkit contributed to the overall bias
and I'm Sure.
That's something that, thatRandy touched on and a figure that

(04:57):
Randy ended up having to makebecause he is the fairgrounds figure
maker.
So, you know, not that youadjust buyer speed figures based
on that.
That there, that is not part,part of the conversation whatsoever.
But obviously it does go along way towards explaining how they
happen.
Much more in the video with Randy.
If you're watching on YouTube,if you're listening, that's going
to be up right next.
So you get much more of whatwe were talking about East Avenue.

(05:18):
Are we, we tired of his act atthis point?
What, what do we do with him?
What happened?
Right.
I mean, you know, I wasexpecting like some story afterwards
about, oh, we think he mayhave bled or oh, you know, he wasn't
right, or, oh, he's going toBramlage or something.
I mean, it was, it was too badto be believed.

(05:40):
And you know, I have some, Ihave plenty of group texts with people
whose opinions I, I, I, Icertainly value and, and recognize.
And you know, some of themwere saying, yeah, we didn't really
take seriously how biased thetrack was at Keeneland when he won
the Breeder Security.
And I was like, yeah, I get it.
But I mean that's not, thatwasn't, that wasn't East Avenue that

(06:00):
showed up on Saturday.
So who the heck knows, Pete?
I mean, it's, it's, I'll tell.
The only thing I can say aboutthis is that if he's right and something
happens that isn't serious andhe does go to another prep, he'll
be a great buy low scenario.
Right, but how can you have any.
I understand he broke poorlyin the Breeders Cup Juvenile, but

(06:22):
these are two total nonefforts in a row.
Yeah.
And one of the things I said,Travis Son and I were talking about
this race a couple of daysbefore and I said, you know, my problem
with East Avenue is that Iunderstand he broke badly in the
Juvenile, but he didn't evenreally move right.
You know, even Ferocious, ahorse that I'm on record is saying,
I'm absolutely stunned thatFerocious is staying on the Kentucky
Derby trail.
But whatever, I'm on recordsaying at least Ferocious did a little

(06:43):
bit of running in the Juvenile.
East Avenue didn't do anyrunning at all.
I tend to be pretty forgivingof speed horses who don't break because
they get so out of their gamethat it can just snowball and all
go wrong.
But after this, you, youmentioned about how easily how he
capitulated.
The Brits have an amazingphrase to Describe that they'll.
They'll talk about a horsegoing away tamely.

(07:04):
You won't see them go awaymuch more tamely than.
Than East Avenue did in that situation.
Well, one other thing I wasgoing to say about that and I joked
with the guys that I was inthe text with.
I said whenever a trainer goesout of their way to talk about how
much they're training a horseto take dirt in workouts and they're
a speed horse, it means theyknow they can't raid.
Yeah, yeah.

(07:25):
Maybe he can't rate.
Maybe he has to see open spacein front of him, you know, but again,
you would have expected hefought on a little bit.
That's like was sort of thefierceness disease early in, in 2024.
Right.
But at least you knew.
And we figured out that oncefierceness was able, matured a little
bit, he was able to sitoutside and rake comfortably.
I mean, even if he's havingyou doesn't like to rate, he shouldn't
have backed out the way he did.

(07:46):
No, it seemed like something's wrong.
We'll wait for news on that.
Any others here that are interesting?
I mean, with the, with thefigure being as high as it was, even
a runner like chunk of goldgiven out by Mike Prabozzi on the
in the Money YouTube channelvery impressively.
Didn't connect the dots thoughwith the other 40 to one shot.
Isn't that, isn't that a shame?

(08:06):
But does a horse like thathave any interest to you going forward?
If nothing else, proof that agood horse can come from anywhere.
The $2,500 purchase, gettingsecond in a major prep.
No, I mean, if he hadn't runup the inside, I'd probably be a
little bit more excited abouthim, but he seems like he'd be on
the list of bombers that couldget a piece of the Derby.
Looks like a horse that'll goon distance wise.

(08:27):
I'm not ready to throw in thetowel on Built yet.
I thought Built made a prettydecent move around the turn and,
and ended up finishing third.
Yes, it was a distant third,but it put him back in the.
In the mix for the best figurehe'd ever run.
So he.
And I'm sure that one of thethings that Randy thought when he
was making that figure was Ican with a straight face, Give built

(08:49):
a 92 because built definitelyran as well as he did in his 92.
And of course, I, I haven'tlistened to what you've recorded
with Randy, but I wouldimagine that at least when you're
a figure maker you take thatinto consideration.
So, you know, if Bill got a 92and he comes back and, and maybe
is a little bit more forwardlyplaced or gets a decent trip in the
Louisiana Derby, it's notgoing to surprise me if he wins that

(09:10):
race at 8 or 10 to 1.
We didn't talk as much aboutthe horses in this race justifying
the figure in thatconversation, but we did talk about
the horse in the race that wasrun 30 minutes before justifying
it.
And that leads us to leadingcontender for the Kentucky Oaks,
Good Cheer.
And he felt like the way thatthe clock broke out there, her running

(09:33):
in 89 made all the sense inthe world and helped justify the
fact that this horse 30minutes later ran, whatever it is,
19 points faster.
What did you think of GoodCheers effort?
How serious of a contender forthe Oaks is she?
You know, it's shaping up thatBrad Cox could end up bringing forth
a short priced Oaks horse forthe third straight year owned by
Godolphin.
I didn't wear Godolphin blueon purpose, I promise, you know.

(09:55):
And Wet Paint and Tarifa wereboth unable to get it done.
Wet Paint was favored, Tarifawas not and didn't do much running
at all.
I'm kind of becoming a GoodCheer fan, I think.
Good Cheers, really good.
And I understand she facedthree woefully overmatched rivals.
But the thing about Good Cheeris that she is that really troublesome
mix.

(10:16):
Troublesome for her rivals mixof a horse with enough tactical speed
and boy does she seem likeshe's got stamina.
I mean he, Brad even said itafter the race when he was asked
on on FanDuel TV said morelonger the better.
And she sure did stride outlike a horse that wants to go a lot
longer.
Beautifully bred obviously byMedallia D'Oro out of the the grade
one winning mare WeddingToast, who was favored in the 2015

(10:38):
Breeders Cup Distaff and had areally accomplished career for Kira
McLaughlin.
So distance should be on thisPhilly side.
I'll tell you, Pete, I meanwe've got a decent little bunch ready.
She's got her stable mateMahima in the mix as well.
We've got 10 out west, butGood Cheer looks like the top of
the class right now and shelooks pretty damn good to me.
Curious to see how crazythey've gotten in terms of the international

(11:00):
future markets on her price.
We'll take a look.
I'll look for that while we chat.
I Wonder too.
I wanted to throw in one morething on Good cheer please.
I wondered she know shedebuted at Horseshoe Indy which obviously
Brad has debuted good horsesat Horseshoe Indy.
I joked with him once that heshould never live down the fact that
he debuted Monomoy Girl on theturf at Horseshoe Indy.
But I wonder at times ifhorses like this that probably aren't

(11:24):
that fast early in their twoyear old season and are more stamina
laden if they sort of get bysome of these trainers that are really
looking for fast 2 year oldsand I mean obviously he started Good
Cheer around two turns.
She's never going to see lessthan a mile.
She's.
The distances are only goingto stay where she is now and get
longer as time goes by.
I wonder if that might be partof it because I mean she went from

(11:45):
getting a mid-50s fig togetting a mid-80s fig in her second
start and she won by 18 lakes.
I was actually a Churchillthat night.
She just absolutely wallopedthe field and the second horse wasn't
that bad and then came backand paired up those trip tripled
up I should say those 86 figsand included beating her stablemate
Eton who came back and won theforward gal.
So I mean I, I guess thatmight be part of it because I will
admit that at first I thoughtto myself ah, this golf and Homebready

(12:08):
debuted at Indy and she can'tmuch but now you're starting to see
that maybe she just didn'thave that early season 2 year old
profile that made her a fastlooking sprinter.
Yeah, it makes sense.
And then in that case what areyou going to spend the stall at,
you know, Saratoga or whereveryou, you keep, you keep them where
they go and then, then you,you have a horse that wants to go
a little bit farther.

(12:28):
Not going to be fast enough towin those sprint races at the bigger
places.
It all, it all starts to comeinto focus.
Let's take a quick look atthis market.
Good cheer, 5 to 1 favorite.
I'll just do the sharp book.
Good cheer, 5 to 1 Favorite.
Muhima and 8 to 1 clear second.
Then three runners at 14s in a row.
Lakara sends a parole and takecharge m'lady.
Simply joking in behind thatat 16.

(12:50):
Myriad love at 20.
That's just a quick snapshotof the early Oaks market.
Anything in there that would,if we had we lived in a civilized
country where you could gomake that bet right now.
Anything that would get youputting your hand in your pocket.
I mean I don't think I'd takegood share at 5.
I'd probably be, you know,right now you'd probably take.
Take charge of m'lady at thatprice, given how well she ran in
the.

(13:10):
In the last raid in the MarthaWashington at Oaklawn.
But she'll be in therescheduled Honeybee, which is now
going to be on Sunday.
With some of the weatherexpected at Oakland, they've moved
the Saturday card to Sunday.
She is in there against Mahima.
And I mean, that thing is ashark tank.
I.
I can't believe there are twoPhillies in that race that are actually
stabled in South Florida rightnow and are entered to go in the
Honeybee.
I cannot believe that GeorgeWeaver is going to put his filly

(13:31):
on a plane to break from thetwelve post a thousand miles from
where she stabled when hecould run in the Devonadale a week
later, unless he really,really, really covets two turns.
So I think Mahima's outstanding.
I thought she looked great inthe Demoiselle.
A lot of people regardedBallerina Doro, who finished second
to her as a real threat togood cheer, unfortunately before
she was scratched.

(13:51):
So we'll see what we get outof Mahima as well.
She's drawn the rail in the,in the Honeybee, which obviously
would make her job a littlebit tougher, but she wants to be
on the front end anyway.
And yeah, Brad is even withImmersive on the sideline, he's holding
a pretty strong hand for.
For the first Friday in May.
Do not.
The only thing I will sayabout those odds.
Do not bet.
Sense of parole.
Sense of parole will beparticipating at some point this
year.
It will not be in the Kentucky Oaks.
Yeah, that.

(14:12):
That's interesting.
They're usually pretty good attaking them out when they're officially
taken out of consideration for play.
Hasn't worked.
I know she's at Payson andshe's galloping.
She has not worked.
But the connect.
I mean, from what Iunderstand, the connections are looking
at like the.
The Ways and means type ofcampaign tests, races like that.
No, it makes complete sense.
That's good.
A very good note.
Good note.
Also on mentioning aboutOaklawn being moved to Sunday.

(14:34):
We hinted at that in the videoMikey P.
And I recorded yester throughthe Rebel Stakes.
You can find that elsewhere onthe in the Money YouTube channel.
Also, later in the week,you're going to get Clay Sanders
marking your card on the inthe Money plus side, we're going
to go through it with him forall that extra information, including
digest of the picks from allthe shows, extra written content.
Make sure you subscribe in themoney podcast.com plus let's talk

(14:59):
about the General George for a second.
Very excited to have ourfriends at Laurel park back in the
mix.
Was great.
Got a lot of compliments aboutpeople seeing Dan Illman back on
our airwaves.
General George 99 buyer speedfigure for Quince Brew Curious to
see if you think this is arace that kind of lives in isolation
or if this is a horse that mayhave some graded stakes sprint prizes

(15:21):
by his name by the time theseason's over.
I mean, I'm hesitant to everjust be too dismissive of a horse
that's now earned 98, 99 figsin consecutive starts.
So he looks very good.
He's come to hand.
Quickly moved into the barn ofNet Allard two Starts to Go, a son
of Mosler, who is a Marylandbred at the very least.
Feels like a horse that you'dsee pointed to one of the Preakness
Day races.

(15:42):
Maybe something a little bittougher than that, I would imagine.
You know, given that allergehistory, he'd consider a race like
the Carter.
And you know, you're earning98.99 figs, you should be in a race
like the Carter.
So yeah, I, I will admit thatwhen you mentioned we were going
to talk about this race, Iwent back and watched the replay
and was running on a sloppytrack, which obviously you do take
that into consideration.
But he looked very good.

(16:02):
He always traveled like a winner.
Michael Sanchez appeared veryconfident the entire way and, and
he pulled away very nicely.
So yeah, consecutive victoriessince switching Barnes at Laurel
to the tune of eleven and ahalf lengths combined and hand ride
was the comment.
So it looked, looked very good.
It's a racehorse.
These recap segments on ourearly week shows are sponsored by

(16:24):
our friends at First Racing.
Let's talk about some of theirbig races from Saturday.
Gulfstream park had the royaldelta, dazzling move one with an
84 buyer speed figure gettingthe best of Grand Job.
Who?
I don't know.
I mean, I guess the questionwas is the two turns going to suit?
I don't know that you candefinitively say yes or no, but it
wasn't a strong case that thishorse wants to any more ground.

(16:47):
Certainly giving up the leadin the stretch at odds on and Dazzling
Move getting the job done.
Did you think about this one?
Any runners to take out of it?
Grand Job is a horse to takeout of it, I think.
You know, I thought the winnerRan fine.
I do think there might be somedistance limitations with Grand Job.
But you know, the story ofthis race, Pete, was that Dazzling

(17:08):
Moves, uncoupled stable matewent on a suicide mission early in
order to set things up forDazzling Move.
And look, let's be honest,there's nothing wrong with that.
You know, we don't requirepeople in this country to designate
horses as pacesetters.
We don't take ourselvesseriously as a gambling game.
We don't ask jockeys toexplain themselves when they change
tactics.
So like, why not takeadvantage of it?
You know, it's unfortunatewhen you're betting, but at the same

(17:31):
time you always knew that Ipicked Dazzling Move was the only
winner I picked on Twin Spiresat golf on Saturday.
I'm not patting myself on theback because I thought Grand Job
would get pushed early.
And so, I mean there it lookedon paper like this was a race that
was going to be run at apretty strong early clip.
The one thing I'll say isDazzling Move was never really that
far off of it.
So, you know, to say that thatGrand Job had this incredible burden

(17:54):
with the rabbit being, youknow, attached to her hip and, and
lost to this horse that hadlingered, you know, eight to ten
links back, that's just not true.
And Dazzling Move was usedaround the turn to get into position
and ultimately wore her down.
I feel like when Grand Job gotkind of hit the wall distance wise,
this was her first domesticstart without Lasix.
And I think that's always alittle bit tougher.
Bill Mott had a rough weekend.
He had a number of horses notreally run that great.

(18:16):
He lost an allowance race withKnightsbridge earlier on this Saturday.
Car Nice Bridge actually ranextremely well.
They're scraping off the, theother horse, I shouldn't use that
expression there.
The other horse that he dueledwith early did not finish well.
And so, you know, he, he ranbetter than I thought.
Grand Job ran fine.
You know where these two willend up in terms of the, the, the
whole scheme of things withthe division.

(18:36):
They got an 83 fake, right?
The, the grand job got an 83 fake.
Dazzling move got an 84.
They're going to have to get ahell of a lot faster in order to
be great at stake sources downthe line.
But this was just a gradethree, so I wouldn't be surprised
if we see Mott pointer tosomething like a double dog dare
or you know, another, anothermedium sized race, maybe a grade
three type race in order totry and figure out really where she's

(18:57):
at.
Sounds like grand job youwould give another chance going farther
in the right scenario butmaybe the cutback not a bad idea.
We'll wait and see what theydecide to do.
Let's head out west to thePalos Verdes for a second and talk
about that result with roll onBig Joe getting a 102 buyer.
Pretty nice looking numberthere in that contest is this one

(19:20):
that has any divisional applicapplications one very easily under
Respoli by four links yeahwire to.
Wire horse that's been on atear first stakes try since the San
Anita Sprint Championshipwhere he finished second two Eventual
Breeders Cup Sprint winnerstraight no chaser the story of this
race was the scratch of BigCity Lights who was going to be probably

(19:41):
about 2 to 5.
I think he was 2 to 5 on themorning line and he ended up coming
out of there.
I didn't I don't rememberseeing a reason why, but he didn't
participate and that obviouslyleft five pretty evenly matched horses
maybe with the exception ofMbagnik Bar on Big Joe looked good,
got the lead, never lookedback and feels like a horse that
you know could be a secondtier sprint type.
The thing is this time of yearif you stay domestic and the good

(20:04):
horses go overseas, then yourchances improve and straight no Chasers
headed to Saudi and I wouldassume probably a decent chance he
goes to Dubai.
So you're not going to see himin the Southern California Sprint
ranks until Del Mar and thatwill leave some opportunities for
Roland Big Joe for sure.
We'll have some Saudi coverageon the in the Money plus side as
well.
Michael Adolfson, our man onthe grounds over there, will be joining

(20:25):
me for a show on Wednesday.
But the only way you're goingto get that in the money podcast.com/
let's talk about Sunday TripleCrown prep action for a minute.
This was a race that will comeup again later in the conversation
with Randy because they didend up splitting the variant here
to make this figure a 92instead of the 97 that it might have

(20:46):
been.
But it did seem like a prettyclear case of the track speeding
up because there was a raceafter this.
Anyway, Randy will explain itall much more articulately than I
can, but I was curious to getyour take on the big day at Sunland
and if you think this mighthave any relevance going forward.
Once in a while we see theseSunland Derby horses making an impact
on the Triple Crown trail.

(21:06):
Yeah, the most famous of whichdid not even win the Sunland Derby
Mind that bird.
Of course, 15, 16 years agonow, this was a hell of a race, right?
Getaway car.
Just tremendous in fightingback to beat Caldera.
My guy there, the announcer,he's intense.
He was.
He was.
I was.
Listen, I had not.
I.
I apologize to him if he everpays attention to this.

(21:27):
I don't know who he is, but Ilike it.
It was.
He was.
He was.
He was into it, and he wasinto it.
Yeah, no doubt about it.
And he.
He was not anticipatinggetaway car coming back, which, watching
the race, I don't see how youcould have.
But, yeah, nice to see a couple.
Couple of what look likepretty solid horses from obviously,
hall of fame Barnes do battleat Sunland.
And this is a race that wasrepositioned on the calendar to get

(21:47):
kind of out of the final preprange, get more towards a penultimate
prep type of territory.
Getaway cars, a horse thatfelt like he probably struggled when
the waters got deeper and isprobably not quite as good as the
stablemate Citizen Bull or.
Or horse like journalism.
But, you know, KG moved by batfor getting him to a stake race he
could win, and now they havethe opportunity to figure out where

(22:09):
to final prep him.
And, you know, he's almost.
Almost to the point where, youknow, he's just a few points away
from being in the gate, if notall the way there.
Well, I think that's probablyall we need in terms of recapping.
I will ask you, unprompted,don't know if you've even looked
yet, but did you take a ganderthrough the Rebel stakes field at
all?
I'm curious.
I might, on the audio side,slug the.

(22:30):
The conversation Mikey P.
And I had at the end of the.
The audio show, because Ithink we'll have time.
I try not to give people morethan an hour of stuff to have to
contend with early week, butjust curious if you had any early
thoughts on it.
Maybe if you haven'thandicapped it, just the runner you're
most looking forward to see.
Yeah, I mean, I thought it was.
It was absolutely brutal onpaper, Obviously.

(22:51):
I'm excited to see all ofthese square off.
You've got a lot of horses,you know, in kind of different moving
parts in many ways.
The problem I'm running intoright now is that they.
Since they've moved theseraces, DRF does not currently have
the PPs up.
Oh, really?
Yeah, they.
They.
I think they're getting them repositioned.

(23:12):
But, you know, it's a bigfield, and obviously the expectation
is that you're gonna get afavorite from the Bob Bafford barn,
if I'm remembering correctly.
Unless it's speaking well.
Right.
I don't know.
It's tough to.
I.
You know, I'm not gonna besurprised if Sandman ends up favoring
this race, to be honest withyou, Pete, because I.

(23:33):
I could see Madikit Roadgetting a lot of money.
Sandman, it seems likeeverybody is talking about from that
southwest, and I don'tnecessarily blame them.
You know, he ran a tremendous race.
He got left in the gate and.
And still put together areally nice late run.
I'm excited to see how some ofthese lesser horses stack up.
Obviously, it'll beinteresting to see if Bullard gets
better around two turns.

(23:54):
It'll be interesting to see ifMadikin Road rebounds a little bit
after running third behind hisstable mates when he didn't really
have that much of a setup.
So it's a good group.
It's.
It's.
I don't think there's a standout.
I don't really think there's astar in there, but I do think.
No, last year we had what wethought was going to be a, you know,
a marquee player in Timberlakerunning this race, and he ended up
not going on.

(24:15):
But I don't think we have that type.
So we're gonna get a.
We're gonna get a relativelybig price favorite, and that's always
fun.
I'm getting my first look atthe morning line and they did install
sandman as the 4 to 1 favoriteMatic at road.
9 to 2 behind that one.
Bullard 5 to 1, Speed King 6to 1.
Interesting to me.
I.
I thought.
I was thinking Speed King, Mike.

(24:36):
I mean, it's a hard, hard,hard line to make, but I was thinking
Speed King might catch alittle extra money.
And I don't know, I was kindof hoping Bullard might get ignored
a little bit, but.
But I don't know.
It's.
It's.
It's.
It's hard to.
It's hard to.
Southern California Californiaforum gets bet so heavily in.
In Arkansas.
Gotcha.
Okay, well, there you go.
So it's probably an excellentline then.
Good stuff, Nick.
Appreciate having you on here.

(24:57):
We encourage folks tosubscribe to the in The Money Media
YouTube channel.
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We got a.
We got loads of free analysisover there as well.
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We'll be back right after this.

(25:18):
Another big first racing tourSaturday is coming up on March 1st.
Fountain of Youth Day atGulfstream and Big Cap Day at Santa
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It's also the ultimate bettingchallenge $6,000 buy in live bank
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(25:41):
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Expressbet.com tournaments,PTF back with you in the Money Media
Network, joined by one of ourmost popular guests.
He comes to us today not justto promote upcoming content on NBC,
as he often does, but but totalk very specifically about figure

(26:01):
making and one figure in particular.
Now, this would have been alot more fun before the news that
Magnitude is going to bemissing the Triple Crown series,
but I still think there's avery interesting conversation to
be had about him and the 108buyer speed figure that he earned
the other day in Louisiana.
And to talk about with us,here's Randy.

(26:22):
Boss.
What's up, my friend?
Hey, Pete.
Everything's going well.
So this figure certainlyturned a lot of heads.
And I want to just start offwith how you feel about it as a speed
figure in general.
Is this one that you would.
Did you have to go to bat for it?
Are you willing to go to batfor it?
Or is this just your bestguess at what the data was telling

(26:44):
you and you don't have thatstrong opinion?
It was a slam dock.
It was an.
It was an absolute slam duck.
If you believe.
I mean, I don't think very fewpeople out there, Pete.
The ones who are squawking the loudest.
Okay, Magnitude can't run a 108.
There's no way he's that good.
His highest previous buyerspeak figure was an 80.

(27:05):
And now you're telling us that.
That he ran a 108?
That's ridiculous.
The buyers can't be trusted.
All this BS.
All right, well, you can askthose same people, do you believe
that a 100 buyer speed figurefor hall of Fame and the Japanese
horse that he just outran inthe mineshaft, both of whom had been

(27:27):
running in the low 1000s orhigh 90s in their previous most recent
races.
Do you think that is out of line?
Or you could say, do you thinkin 89 for a good sheer, arguably
the best three row Philly inthe country right now.
And the Rachel Alexander isout of Line, and you would probably

(27:50):
get.
No, those are fine.
Well, numbers are numbers.
Data is data.
And the Risen Star ran eightpoints faster than the Mine Shaft
on the Buyer speed figure,scale, and 19 points faster than
the Rachel Alexandra just 32minutes earlier.

(28:11):
So the.
The data is there.
So then you only have to askyourself, there are people who say,
well, they clearly souped upthe track before the Risen Star.
The track superintendentsouped up the track.
Well, they had 32 minutes towhat, put one extra load of water

(28:31):
on the track or whatever, ifthey chose to do that.
And my argument would be, whywould they soup up the track just
for the Risen Star and not forthe Rachel Alexandra and not for
the Mineshaft.
Right.
If they want to make theirbest horses run faster, which is
a pretty specious argument tobegin with.
Nowadays, in the era of horsesafety, you would do it for all those

(28:55):
races.
You wouldn't just decide tocram it in in the 32 minutes before
the Risen Star.
And then you hear people say,well, well, track bias.
That's why the horse ran so fast.
Track bias.
Okay.
It was on my list to ask youabout Pete.
I don't disagree with that.
I mean, Steve Asmussen himselfsaid in an interview that I.

(29:17):
That I.
That I listened to thatearlier in the card.
He had some of his stretchrunners out in the middle of the
track that he thought wouldrun well, and they didn't.
And all the horses that wereon the lead, on the inside that he
had ran extremely well.
So he was convinced that theinside part of the track and speed
was golden on Saturday.

(29:37):
And that's why the strategy tosend Magnitude out of the gate from
the far outside post and tryto outrun American Promise and all
the other speed to the insidepart of the track, which obviously
was very successful.
Okay, sharp guy.
I don't disagree that thetrack may have been biased, but was
the track suddenly biased onlyfor the Risen Star?

(30:00):
Horses were also running onthe lead and on the inside in the
Rachel Alexandra.
They were also running on thelead and on the inside in the Mine
Shaft.
Now, you can argue thatbecause he benefited from a track
bias, that.
Okay, Magnitude probably isnot as good going Forward as that

(30:21):
108 buyer that he got in theRisen Star with the advantage of
a track that may have playedto his benefit, but that doesn't
mean that he didn't run a 108on that day with a bias.
And that's what speed figuresare supposed to do.
I know you and I have had this conversation.
They Aren't performance figures.

(30:42):
For example, time form inEngland has the famous ratings over
there.
They've been doing it fordecades and decades and decades.
Time form ratings do takefinal time into account, but they
are performance ratings.
Time form guys might look atthe Risen Star.
Now, I'm not talking abouttime form us and Craig Milkowski.

(31:05):
I'm talking about the Europeanversion of time form.
They would look at a race likethe Risen Star and they might say,
okay, the.
The race came up a108 based ontime, but there was a rail bias that
day and he made an uncontestedearly lead.
And we don't think theperformance therefore is quite that

(31:25):
good.
So we're going to give him a 102.
Well, speed figures track andquantify how fast a horse runs.
Okay.
It's up to the individualhandicapper, it's up to the individual
horse player and horsemen to interpret.

(31:48):
Why did the horse run that fast?
How did the horse run that fast?
Is the horse likely to runthat fast?
Again, what does the race mean?
That that's not something wetry to do.
We give you how fast the horseran on that particular day and then
it's up to you to try tointerpret it and decide what all

(32:09):
that means.
It's a great description and Ithink to underline it as far as my
understanding is to go back towhat time form are doing or what,
you know, an official ratingmight be doing.
In the UK they're trying tohang one number on a horse so you
can get a sense of the abilityof that horse.
Right?
Right.
So and so might be rated 110and that's a reflected on their scale.

(32:35):
That's reflective of theirability in a.
That doesn't mean that everyrace runs to that level like you're.
When you talk about looking atone individual race, you could.
You could have a horse ratedone thing overall, but in a given
performance, you might ratevery differently.
And that's what you guys, whenyou're making speed figures are meant

(32:55):
to be doing.
Evaluating that.
That individual performancefor a variety of reasons.
Sounds like you are more thanconfident in this 108.
I want to talk a little bitmore about the bias issue, but first
I want to go back to just aquestion I have for you.
Don't know the answer.
Just a hypothesis seen overthe years sometimes on these really
long fairgrounds days.

(33:16):
We're talking 14 races.
Basically.
You start in the morning andyou end in the dark sometimes there'll
be a lot of time before a dirtrace Late in this car.
That wasn't the case on Saturday.
How does it change thechallenge of making figures when
a card is so long theweather's going to change several

(33:36):
degrees?
Is there any possibility thata race on the end of a card like
this would be a bit moredifficult to make a figure 4 simply
because of the length of theday and the changes from day into
night?
It's not impossible, Pete.
And we look at the, at thedata to try to give us that kind
of a determination.
What will occasionally make itdifficult in the case, for example,

(34:01):
of the Risen Star, is thatthere was no race after the Risen
Star to help you get a lineon, you know, how fast the racetrack
was getting later in the card.
There was only a half hour, inthis case between the, between the
Rachel Alexander and the Risen Star.
And so it, you know, sort ofnot plausible that you were going

(34:27):
to see a massive difference inthe speed of the racetrack in just
that short period of time.
And it's not impossible for atrack superintendent to impact the
speed of a racing surface byputting extra water on it.
It's not going to have.
And I spoke to tracksuperintendents about this very thing.
In fact, today I spoke to atrack superintendent, very prominent

(34:50):
track superintendent.
And the fairgrounds is onething, okay, It's a racetrack, obviously,
New Orleans is a moist, humid climate.
It's got a high water table.
You're not going to have asituation at the fairgrounds, typically
where you're going to have asuper hot kind of day where the racetrack

(35:13):
is totally dried out.
You're going to have an ampleamount of moisture, typically in
the racing surface, thefairgrounds, typically, from the
beginning of the day to theend, it's a little different sometimes
at a racetrack like Sunland Park.
And it's interesting that youwould bring that phenomenon up.
This has nothing to do withsundown or anything like that.

(35:35):
But one day after the RisenStar on Sunday was the Sunland Derby.
And when our Figma makers, Idon't do Sunland, but our Figma makers
were doing the Sunland Derbycard and it became pretty noticeable
that it looked like the tracksped up for the Sunland Derby, well,
then you had to ask yourself,in this case, there was a race after

(35:58):
the Sunland Derby, just anordinary sprint, and it came up exceptionally
fast compared to the racesearlier on the card, pre Sunland
Derby.
So our guys doing Sunlandpark, and, you know, Andy and Mark
Hopkins concurred that theracetrack did speed up for the last

(36:18):
couple of races.
And it's a little different.
Sunland's a very arid, dry climate.
Water, extra water on the racetrack.
If that's what a tracksuperintendent chose to do before
the track signature race,maybe thinking it would make it safer,
you know, could also have the,you know, the.

(36:38):
The effect of maybe speedingup the racetrack.
And it doesn't take much talkabout just a few fifths of a second.
Right.
The stories you hear abouttrack maintenance and track speeds,
the.
The time a track getsharrowed, how many minutes between
races can sometimes affectwhether a race placed at speed or
closes.
I mean, some of this stuffgets into the realm of conspiracy

(36:59):
theory, but some of it, Ithink, is very real.
Some of it.
I think a lot of it isconspiracy theory, though.
I think a whole lot of peopleare just quick to say whenever you
see a fast race, oh, theysouped up the racetrack.
Tax superintendent souped upthe racetrack.
Most of it is bs.
My great friend Jake Jacobs,who is a believer, he produces figures

(37:20):
that attempt to quantify track bias.
So he believes in it.
[e-mail] he saysthere are a lot more track bias players
than there are track biases,and there's definitely some truth
to that.
So let's talk about magnitudeand this performance and how you
personally.
This isn't as relevant of aquestion as I wish it were, but how

(37:42):
do you evaluate him?
You know, hopefully he.
The.
The.
The sidelining is minor andhe's back by the.
By the summer of the fall.
How would you rate that, like,in terms of him as an individual
going forward?
How would you try to hang anability figure on him for his next
appearance?
And by extension, and maybethis is the more interesting question,

(38:03):
what do we do with the rest ofthese beasts in behind him?
Because they still still havesome decent time figures in there.
They're okay, you know, the.
The runner up chunk of gold,who I was all over, by the way, but
unfortunately lost moneytrying to capitalize on his 43 to
1 odds.
Got a 92 buyer with a.

(38:24):
With a.
I.
I won't say it's a good tripbecause he got stopped cold at the
quarter pole, but he savedground pretty much on both turns,
so he had that benefit goingfor him.
But a 92 is not gonna raise awhole lot of hell when you get a
little bit later on the Triplecrown trail.
Built ran okay.
You know, he ran decently, butagain, he ran like a 92.

(38:44):
He was right there in thephoto with Chunk of Gold East Avenue.
I think you can throw him outof Your Derby top 10 looks like he's
got to have the early lead atthis point of his career, you know,
so they were okay.
But you know how I viewmagnitude, Pete?
Yes, he had a track bias.

(39:05):
I think it's my estimationthat the track was somewhat biased
and you have to this, you haveto downgrade him slightly because
of that.
Still, he ran significantlyfaster than every other horse on
the card that had the benefitof the speed and rail.
So he clearly ran anexceptional race.

(39:29):
I don't think I would make himmy number one Derby contender if
he were still on the Derbytrail, but I would certainly have
him up there in the top fivedepending on how he ran coming back
in the Louisiana Derby.
If, if he had made it to that.
I want to go back to theSunland question again because I,
I should have had you connectthe dots on that.
From a figure making point ofview view, when you do see that track

(39:51):
clearly speeding up at acertain point, that's where you will.
What they do, what they say.
Split the variant, I presumeand maybe explain that to some of.
This is the YouTube audience.
We've got a lot of newerracing fans here and, and this is
probably something you don'tget to talk to a lot.
Talk about a lot on NBC though.
You guys get prettysophisticated, but a chance for you

(40:11):
to go into a little bit ofdepth about sort of your general
attitude about when to split avariant and even just what it means.
Well, when you're makingfigures, 90 plus percent of the time
the track without any weatherconsiderations during the, during
the card without any, youknow, including wind, but especially

(40:34):
precipitation, you're gonnahave the track stay fairly constant
from the beginning of the dayto the end of the day.
Dirt track, I'm talking aboutfor all turf as well, especially
turf.
Occasionally though, whenyou're making numbers for no apparent
reason, it's probably, maybeit has something to do with track
maintenance.

(40:55):
There's no way to know.
But it becomes absolutelycrystal clear that at a certain point
on the card, the racetrackchanges in terms of its impact on
the final times.
And it.
In that case, when it becomesabsolutely dead certain apparent,
then we have to do what youcall split the variant and we'll

(41:17):
have one track variant for,let's say the first four races on
the card and then we mighthave a separate track variant for
the last seven or eight raceson the card.
Typically when we're doingfigures, it's been my experience
that when you get to asituation where you think, okay,
this is probably a splitvariant okay.
Usually you're wrong.

(41:38):
Yeah.
So you have to tell yourself,I'm gonna go back and look at this
again.
And let's suppose I'm wrong.
Let's go back and let's.
And let's recalculate thisbased on one variant all day.
And like I said, 90% of thetime or plus it is one variant for
the day.
And you'll correct yourself.

(41:59):
A lot of times you will havethought maybe the races there's a
split variant when it'sactually not.
But there are certain dayswhere it's just.
It's just absolutely obviousthat that's the situation.
Sounded like the Sunland dayis a good example of that.
Yeah.
Not.
Not as dramatic.
Not as dramatic as a lot ofsplit variants are.

(42:21):
So it'll be interesting to seeour getaway car and Caldera come
back to run.
They either ran a 92, 93 orthey ran a 98, 99.
Significant difference.
Yeah, significant differencebased on the final race on the card,
the race after that.
If you group those two racestogether, then they're more likely

(42:42):
to run 92, 93, which fitsbetter with the horses behind them
than a 98, 99.
And that's why the decisionwas made to split the variant for
the last two.
And the way to ascertain,really, maybe not ascertain even,
but to just continue to makean educated guess about what number
is the right number, you gotto watch the run backs, I presume.
Exactly.

(43:03):
And then make inferences from that.
Exactly.
And then some people will say,well, you changed it, you know.
Well, look, it's our goal tohave every number as accurate as
we can possibly make it.
And when we do, when we do dayto day figures right there, There
are certain days in our debt,in our database, in our buyer database.

(43:24):
What I do if I have a day that I.
It's easy.
The Risen Star day would be an example.
When I input the figures intoour special little buyer database,
I'll put exclamation points byall those numbers so that when they
run back in our system, itimmediately identifies to me.
That was a day I was extremelyconfident about.

(43:47):
But then there are other daysthat aren't quite so ironclad.
You might have a lot of raceswith first time starters, you know,
maiden races.
You might have rain in themiddle of the card where you've got
to try to determine, you know,how it impacted the track.
You're not so sure.
So you'll also, you'll put acode for those to go back and check

(44:07):
and monitor the results whenthey run back and see if your estimation
was right or wrong.
If it was wrong, well, youwant to fix it.
You don't want to have thatnumber in perpetuity.
You know, when a horseman,when horse players especially look
at it a little bit later, youwant every number to be as accurate
as possible, even if it meanschanging a number after the fact

(44:30):
and after horses have run back.
I feel like the scales havefallen off my eyes.
Here I was envisioning Godcoming down from the heavens and
handing you and Andy tabletswith all the figures and that's just
how they were supposed to stay.
You're saying that's not,that's not.
No, of course there's a,there's, it's more of a.
Is this correct statement.
It's more of a science.
But there's also an art andit's great to get here, a chance

(44:51):
to hear you talk about boththe science and the art of figure
making.
It's a good point.
That's, that's, that's a verygood way.
To describe it before you getout of here.
You will be back on NBC forthe first Saturday in March, March
1, it is ultimate bettingchallenge that day.
A lot of exciting stuffhappening for horse players.
You'll be on NBC.
Perhaps we'll try to put youin an arm lock and see if we can

(45:13):
get you on these airwavestalking about those big days of races
on, on either coast for ourfriends at first and our friends
at NBC.
All right.
And I'll bring the jockey withme next time.
Not too bad.
We always like, he didn't need to.
Be involved in the speedfigure discussions.
Right.
But I think he just listens toyou on that stuff.
That's the impression.
Just like you listen to him onhow to ride a horse.

(45:35):
Exactly.
For more great content, makesure you check out inthemoneypodcast.com
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And subscribe to the in TheMoney Media YouTube channel.
We've got loads of exclusive content.
Thank you very much.
I wanted to let you know aboutthe Santa Anita donation drive for
fire relief presented byAngelenos in action, set for February

(45:56):
23rd at the Great race place.
Angelenos in Action and SantaAnita park are partnering for a donation
drive to aid in the firerelief efforts.
Sunday, February 23rd at SantaAnita is when it's happening.
All those who donate can alsostay and enjoy a complimentary day
at the races, including freeadmission, free parking and a free

(46:17):
race program.
Donations will be acceptedfrom 10:30am to 2:30pm in the Santa
Anita parking lot.
Those wishing to contributecan enter the grounds either through
Gate 5 off Huntington Drive orGate 8 off Baldwin Avenue.
Donations can include nonperishable food, water, paper products
like paper towels, toiletpaper and wipes, diapers, toiletries

(46:40):
as well.
All items must be new and petfood being accepted.
Please pitch in if you canhelp out.
Santa Anita and Angelino's inAction Fire Relief PTF back with
you in the Money Media YouTube channel.
In the Money players podcastas well.
We're here to talk about theRebel Stakes, Oaklawn park important

(47:02):
Derby prep action.
Not technically a win in yourend, but with the 50 points.
Whoever wins this is going tobe in the starting gate of the Kentucky
Derby assuming things stay healthy.
Quick Weather programming notelooks like they might have some weather
in Hot Springs, Arkansasthroughout this week.
Some rumors floating aroundthis card may be scheduled to Sunday.

(47:23):
I suppose if there's badweather that could change who ends
up turning up with twoCalifornia shippers slated to be
here, we'll have you coveredin The Money Media YouTube channel.
If there are late breakingevents, we'll come back to this race
and talk about it again laterin the week.
But right now me and Mikey PAre going to talk about this race.

(47:43):
Mikey P.
Fresh off of giving you a nice40 to 1 shot who ended up running
second last week.
I hope you back wheeled that Mikey.
P.
No backwell here but did diduse the horse and and in the race.
I do think that that race setup for long shots and when you find
a favorite you don't like, youneed to take some shots in these
derby preps and you never knowwho's gonna pop up.

(48:05):
So lots of big balloons if youif you connected there at fairgrounds
on Saturday.
Let's get on to, you know, weknow no resting on laurels or laurel
over here.
We're gonna look ahead to thisRebel Stakes.
Really interesting race.
A lot of ways to go.
We're going to start off bytalking about a horse that might
be the favorite, number 11,Speed King.
This horse ran really well inthe Southwest.

(48:28):
I was in a hurry to discountthe form a little bit with some of
the other speed not breakingthat day.
But this horse led all the waythrough legitimately fast sectionals
and showed some tenacity lateholding off that late run from Sandman,
who we'll get to in a middlein a minute.
Rather, I do think this horseis likely to face another tough pace
scenario here.
I Can't blame those who saythis is the horse to beat at what

(48:50):
might be the favorite.
I'm probably leaning against.
Where are you with Speed Kingin this spot from?
Also this potentially trickypost run outside and outside the
other speed.
I do think that Speed King isa legitimate horse.
I do think that he will end upin the gate for the Kentucky Derby
if he stays healthy.
He's shown progression.
He's done very well with theincreases in distance, but I do think

(49:13):
that this is a nuclear pacethat's setting up in this Rebel.
There's plenty of horses thatare stretching out from six for a
long races.
You have horses that want tobe up close, horses like Innovator
that certainly are going to gostraight to the front.
You have the Californiacontingent that always has plenty
of speed.
So I do think Speed King is upagainst it in this race from a pace

(49:33):
standpoint.
If he proves that he canhandle that and go on, then he's
a serious contender for the Derby.
Let's move to the next logicalhorse to talk about, the one who
almost ran him down.
Sandman walked out of the gatelast time, had a very tricky trip,
really turned a lot of headsand impressed people last time.
What do you think of him this time?
Keeping in mind, we'll giveour official selections at the end

(49:55):
of the video along with theinteresting long shot each.
Just we'll talk through thefield here as we go through this
Rebel Stakes.
Well, Sandman likes to comefrom off the pace and he gets the
ideal post, the ideal setup inthis race and he's another one that's
shown progression.
If you look at his buyernumbers, 73, 79, 89, 92.
So this is the kind of horsethat's, you know, coming into his

(50:16):
own as a 3 year old.
This is another opportunity totake a big step forward.
He's going to have no excuses, really.
There's plenty of speed thatis going to be in front of him that
probably going to be backingup around the turn.
I do think if he breaks, well,he has to behave himself.
But he is a huge, hugecontender in this race.
While we're talking about theSouthwest, we might as well throw

(50:38):
in the horse that finishedthird in there.
Tis tastic.
This one got the worst of itat the draw, drawn out in the 13.
But I have to say this horsehas some things to like.
I know you had made a casebefore the last race.
It wasn't a bad effort.
I mean, you could say, well,Speed King was more impressive because
of the sectionals Sandman wasmore impressive because of the trip.

(51:00):
But boy, this horse has achance to be forgotten.
Is he still on your radar assomebody who liked him last time?
He is on my radar.
As I mentioned in the lastvideo that we did for the Southwest,
this horse is a grinder.
He just, you know, continuesat the same speed while everyone
else is slowing down late.
He had some trouble in thatsouthwest state.
Go back and watch that replay.
When it was time to go, helacked room.

(51:23):
He was definitely in tightthere and he just did his grind down
the stretch to end up beingthird in the race.
So there were legitimatehorses in that race.
I don't think he necessarilyhad a fair chance.
And Steve S.
Musen, I mean, come on.
I mean, look what he did thispast weekend from a horse from an
outside post at a big price.
You get Jose Ortiz now who isriding incredibly.
So I, I do think this horsehas a definite chance.

(51:45):
Let's go from one Asmusson tothe other number six publisher been
working in company with TisTastic according.
I haven't seen a clockerreport or anything, but these look
like good works.
That last one, especially onthe workout tab, this horse just
had a horror trip in the Southwest.
Multiple points of meaningfultrouble and he was 50 to 1 that time.
So this horse has got to be ahuge price.

(52:06):
As you point out, we didn'tneed much go back very far to See
Asmussen Runners 3 year oldsimproving quickly and hitting the
board at big prices.
He's another one I'm keepingon the radar for sure.
Do you prefer Tastic to him ordo you see them as of a piece?
I prefer Testic more just fromhis class right now.
Publisher, while he did racein that southwest last time, that

(52:29):
was coming off a maiden race.
So this horse is still a maiden.
Now you get a big jockeychange here you get Flavian Pratt,
who just won the EclipseAward, top jockey in the country,
has his choice of these threeyear olds every weekend.
It seems that's a big changefor him.
He had absolute trouble in thelast race, was shot off in the stretch.
No chance there.
Do I prefer him to the other Asmuchin?

(52:50):
No.
But would he surprise me tohit the board?
Not really.
Let's talk about Cole Battle,the one runner in here.
We've been very fortunate onthe in the Money media network to
have our pal Eric de Costerworking up our official in the Money
Media Top 10 list.
This horse hasn't been on it,but he's consistently been just outside
the top 10 won the first racein this series.

(53:11):
The Smarty Jones.
I really love that pace linegoing back and looking at time form
us to see a horse that puts upa fast early number, then settles
in the middle of the race pacenumber wise and then really finishes
full of run.
This might be a sprinter's pedigree.
As I look in it.
Horse really isn't quite fastenough but I still think he's a little

(53:31):
intriguing and a horse who I'mgoing to end up with on at least
some tickets somewhere.
Maybe more than that dependingon the price.
Where are you with Cole Battle?
I think that he has a chanceto be a good story.
He's a horse that won a keyrace in the springboard mile from
off the pace then shown someversatility back in the Smarty Jones.
When able to control the pace.

(53:52):
He seems to really handleevery scenario.
That race at Delta was atricky race also that he won back
in November.
So he's an improving type.
He needs to get faster buthe's a good story and I think a horse
that really tries very hardall the time.
He has a perfect post here.
The Tripp will be curious buthe's one that is interesting.
Me maybe not on the win end.

(54:13):
I would probably use him underneath.
Let's talk about another good story.
Kenny McPeek.
Obviously what an achievementlast year with what he did for the
Oaks and Derby.
He's got a horse on the Derbytrail this year named Hypnis.
Made his debut a winning oneover that sloppy going at Fairgrounds
ignored in the wagering thatday probably had a race flow that
favored him in that spot.

(54:34):
But McPeek's runners doimprove more than your average trainer
going from start one to start two.
I don't know.
I'm probably leaning againstoff a one number horse where that
one number was with the setupin the slop.
But the Derby trail is morefun when Kenny McPeek's on it.
What do you think of Hypnis?
I do like him and if you lookat his pedigree, I mean that's a
grade one winning dam there in Dreamtree.

(54:56):
First time out was able to winnow did get a setup.
Yinzer came back this pastweekend at Fairgrounds.
I out of that race to win andthis horse I do think has some possibilities
just with the breeding.
He has some improvement andthere's a ton of buzz around this
horse.
If you if you listen to theSteve Bick show, there's a lot of
positive reports coming fromhis workouts at fairgrounds with

(55:17):
those guys there last weekend.
So lots of of positive thingscoming from this horse.
They show up here off a maidenwin into this grade two rebel and
McPeak won it last year.
So dangerous to me.
Yeah.
Very interesting.
All right.
There's some people yelling atthe screen because there's two very
well fancied runners wehaven't even gotten to yet.
We'll get to them.
We'll hit our thank you to oursponsor real quick.

(55:38):
We'll get back with theofficial selections.
One of these days I'm gonnaget my act together and we're gonna
have a graphic for theseofficial selections too.
I.
I probably could have done itfor this video, but I frankly, I
just ran out of time.
Let's talk about these two whoalso have a chance to be up or near
the head of the market.
They're both west coast invaders.
And we're going to start withthe one who was at one point number

(55:59):
one on Eric DeCoster's list.
I know you gave him a hardtime for that cynic that you are.
I think currently he's number two.
The horse is number ten, Bullard.
This horse been a fascinatingprospect since the first start.
I agree with Eric that thishorse did not lose much in defeat
in the San Vicente last timehad license to be short that day

(56:19):
was seeding a major tacticaladvantage to Barnes.
I agree it's put up or shut uptime for this one, but that last
workout to me makes him lookback like he's headed in the right
direction.
So I'm going to see the glasshalf full.
I have a feeling you're goingto make a glass half empty comparison
given your on the recordcomments about Bullard to this point.
Yeah, for me, I mean, thishorse wasn't even listed in the Kentucky

(56:42):
Derby future wager this past weekend.
Now, I do love the barn, butyou got a perfect setup there in
that November 17th, Bob hopes mistakes.
I do think that this horsecould be a sprinter I really thought
had no excuse in the San Vicente.
I know he was facing Barnes,but I do think this horse needs to
prove it.
Well, this is a great spot todo that.
They're shipping in.
They're going a mile in asixteenth here.

(57:04):
So plenty of chances for thishorse to show what he is.
I just, I'm not so sure that,you know, he wants to crack this
nut.
So we'll see.
Good luck to you.
Good luck to Eric.
He will not be on my tickets.
You.
You don't buy the idea thatbeing short potential Excuse being
against the flow.
Potential excuse.
And.
And then the nature of thetrip too was a little bit less than

(57:26):
perfect.
He was very wide there on aday when I thought ground loss matter.
You're not buying any of that?
Well, I personally didn't likehim in that spot that day and I really
don't like him here.
I don't know what kind of triphe's going to get.
He could be a closing sprintertype horse.
Now he's going to get a set uphere, plenty of speed in front of
him but where is he at?
Is he going to be mid pack andthen making an early move or does
he have to come for way off of it?

(57:48):
He's a very tricky read to me and.
And the price is going to belower than I want.
I hear that last point.
Especially I would like to seemid pack closing.
I would like to think comingout of a seven furlong race he's
got the tactical speed to getthe jump on the likes of Sandman,
but still will not be up therein the vanguard hitting with those
sprinters.
So I was thinking he couldtrip out.
We'll see how it plays out.

(58:09):
Let's talk about a horse.
I mean I think you can make acase this horse could, could be the
favorite in this spotdepending on what the vibes are.
Round number five, Madicot Road.
Representing the powerhousebarn of Bob Baffert.
He's just won this race eighttimes I'm told that's good.
He did not look great lasttime in the Lewis, but absolute excuse.
Team tactics fully in playthere as your boy.

(58:29):
Citizen Bull was allowed towaltz on the lead.
That worked against a runnerlike Madica Road.
There's going to be plenty ofpace to set up a late run this time.
Bullard handled him easilyback in the Bob hole, but that was
Madicott Roads first race soI'm not going to take that form too
literally.
He's a horse I'm going to use.
I'm not going to key.
What do you think of Madicot Road?

(58:50):
I don't want him at all, honestly.
I mean I like Citizen Bull inthat Robert B.
Lewis.
I thought that Madicot Roadshould have been second there but
when, when he was trying to gothrough in on the rail, he ended
up being out finished byRodriguez and out finished pretty,
you know, substantially there.
You know, I'm not sure thatthis horse wants the two turns now.
I mean it's a Baffert, it's irad.

(59:11):
This horse could bounce backoff the ship.
But again, very short pricefor a horse that really I didn't
like that effort last time.
So there are just others inhere that I prefer far more and would
be a takeout reducer on frommy standpoint.
I get it.
I mean I'm again you, I'm notgoing to get beat by Bafford in this
spot, but I think he's goingto be short enough given the attending

(59:33):
question marks that you dosuch a good job of highlighting.
We'll come back in a minutewith selections but want to let you
know that this video isbrought to you by our [e-mail]
they are back in thehandicapping tournament space in
a very big way.
The Kentucky Derby BettingChallenge tournaments latest major.
You can buy your way into thatfor 5,000 or you can win your way

(59:55):
in with tournaments nearlyevery day.
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Great player friendly termsand something really exciting at
the end of the rainbow herewith the revised kdbc.
Okay, as promised, time forour official selections.

(01:00:18):
Mikey, who are you going with?
I'm going to take Sandman on top.
I know that he's going to beone of the top choices in this race,
but the money's going to bespread around.
It's a big field.
There's no real dominant horse.
You're not going to see a 3 to5 East Avenue type number here.
Now he needs to behave himselfout of the gate but I do think that
he is progressing.
He's ultra talented and hegets a setup here.

(01:00:39):
This is what he wants.
He's proven over this racetrack.
So I do think Sandman has amassive chance to win this race.
What if I asked you for one ata little bit more of a price, maybe
more of a B level contender asfar as winning, but somebody who
can hit the board at a number.
I will keep his tastic on my radar.
I did like him in the Southwest.
I thought that things didn'tnecessarily go his way.

(01:01:01):
He still improved his figure there.
His grinding style is one thatyou know is difficult to navigate.
But I do think he's going tobe moving forward late.
I like the fact that JoseOrtiz gets up and Asmussen barn going
extremely well right now.
He's going to be an overlay inthe race.
So tis tastic on the radar for me.
I'll do it in the opposite order.
I'll start with my long shot.

(01:01:22):
I'll try the other asmussenRunner Publisher I understand what
you're saying about thismaiden being tested for class, but
I think sometimes a horse likethis, the crowd will even over react
to that and there is alegitimate chance.
Now, who knows, maybe withasmrson Having a 50 to 1 win last
week, we're going to pay alittle bit of a tax for that.
But this horse is going to bea huge price and will be in my various

(01:01:43):
exotic wagers.
That's the number sixpublisher Mike for a long shot going
with 13 tis tastic on top.
Probably not a surprise fromthe way I talked about this race.
I'm going to stick with Bullard.
I'm going to believe, I'mgoing to say those people who put
the future odds together orfuture field together.
We're overlooking this one.
He's going to come back ontothe Derby trail in a big way on Saturday.

(01:02:05):
We'll see if I'm right about that.
We'll see if Mikey's rightabout Sandman.
I should point out Sandmanwould also be, no doubt about it,
a level contender for me basedon all the cases that you made.
Again, monitor the weather.
We're gonna have a lot more onthis race if the situation changes
in The Money Media YouTube channel.
Subscribe to that subscribewherever you get your podcasts in

(01:02:27):
the Money Players podcast.
And if you want more on thiswhole Rebel Stakes Day card, we're
gonna have a special show forthat whether it's run Saturday or
or Sunday over on our plusservice inthemoneypodcast.com that's
going to do it for thisedition of the show.
Want to thank today's guests,Randy and Mikey and Nick Tamarrow.

(01:02:48):
Also want to thank ourfounding partners over at 10 Strike
Racing.
We'd love to root for thepurple and black.
As I mentioned earlier, ClaySanders, one of the founding partners,
will be on with us on the plusside later this week to talk about
this rescheduled Rebel StakesDay card.
Also, our charity partners,Kim Weir, currently at Therapeutic
Horses of Saratoga, stilldoing great work helping humans and

(01:03:10):
helping horses learn moreabout them and the work they do in
the money podcast.com horsesmost of all though, want to thank
all of you, the listeners, formaking these shows so much fun to
do.
This show's been a productionof in the Money Media.
I'm Peter Thomas Fornitel.
May you win all your photos.

(01:03:52):
I it's just me and.