How To Buy Houses in 2025

On today's podcast episode I talk about how to buy houses in 2025 and what to look out for as an investor when buying in today's market. 

The past 3 years have been an interesting time for real estate investors - especially in Florida. We have seen interest rates move up from a low of 2.65% in 2022 to above 7% by October 2023. This rapid increase in interest rates which was orchestrated by the Fed to reduce inflation had a very sobering effect on the real estate market. 

Prices peaked around July 2022 and have been on a gradual decline ever since. Over the past year, the market has shifted from a seller's market where it was easy to sell, to a buyer's market where buyers can be very selective. Sellers have been slashing prices on properties listed on the MLS and inventory has been rapidly increasing in many areas. In some areas like Southwest Florida, in some cities the number of listings on the MLS has quadrupled over the past few years.

Some of the notable changes that have occured over the past few years are:

1. Hedge Funds, Private Equity Funds and iBuyers stopped buying houses.
2. These same hedge funds and private equity funds are now selling houses.
3. Builders have had to slash prices and provide incentives to lure buyers in.
4. Higher interest rates and prices means less buyers can qualify for a mortgage.
5. Banks and mortgage lenders are becoming much more cautious on lending. 

So how have these changes affected real estate investors who are wholesaling and flipping houses, fixing and flipping houses, and buying rentals and Airbnb's?

The first major change is you have to be very weary of sold comps (comparable sales). A house that sold 3 months ago may have gone under contract 5 months ago, and prices may have been ten percent higher. If you are planning on fixing and flipping and it usually takes you four to six months from purchase to sale, it may now take you longer to sell, and you may have to decrease the asking price. During that longer holding period, you will have additional interest payments. You may also be looking at an additional ten percent decline in pricing by the time the house sells. 

For investors that are fixing and flipping, they have a situation where prices are coming down and they may continue to come down. I recommend that you build in a profit margin of 10% from sold comps, and then add an additional 10% for potential price declines. This is a very conservative assumption, but it will help you stay profitable and out of trouble. It will also make you reject almost all deals that are presented to you. In this market you will need to buy at deep discounts.

Keep an eye on home builders and the pricing of new homes because that is also putting downward pressure on comparable sales. If a brand new 1,800 square foot home that was built in 2025 is selling for $380,000 then why would someone pay $350,000 for your 1989 house that you fixed up which is only 1,200 square feet? Don't only look at sold comps because if you do you will over estimate the ARV and what the house could be sold for. Always pay attention to the home builders because their pricing puts a ceiling on comparable sales. If you are watching the builders, then you will know when they are slashing prices and you will be able to adjust your comparable sales and ARV accordingly.

In today's market it is more important to look instead at current listings on the MLS than comparble sales. Pay attention to how long homes have been listed (days on market) and how much sellers are slashing their asking prices. Sold comps may tell you a house is worth $350,000, but if there are 3 houses listed for sale at $320,000 then ask yourself if you called the realtor and made an offer would the seller accept $310,000 or $300,000?. If the answer is yes, then the ARV today is $300,000 (not $350,000). And yes tha