ICFRC - Flashpoint? Taiwan, China, and the United States

The 100-mile-wide Taiwan Strait, which separates the small democratic island of Taiwan from the People's Republic of China, has emerged as one of the world's most volatile geopolitical flashpoints. As tensions between China and the United States continue to rise, the risk of conflict-either deliberate or accidental-has become a subject of serious concern.

China views Taiwan as a breakaway province and has not ruled out the use of force to assert control. President Xi Jinping has directed the People's Liberation Army to be ready for a possible invasion of Taiwan by 2027. Meanwhile, the United States continues its long-standing "One China" policy, accompanied by a deliberately vague stance of "Strategic Ambiguity" -- a posture that has left key questions about American military intervention unanswered. Former President Biden publicly declared that the U.S. would defend Taiwan in the event of an attack, though those remarks were later tempered by his staff.

Adding to the stakes, Taiwan plays an outsized role in the global economy: a single Taiwanese company manufactures over 90% of the world's most advanced microchips-components that power everything from smartphones to artificial intelligence systems.

This presentation examines the underlying interests of the United States, China, and Taiwan; the potential pathways to conflict; and the far-reaching consequences for global security, diplomacy, and technology.

Featured speaker: Ron McMullen
Ambassador Ronald McMullen is a career diplomat with over 30 years of service as a U.S. Foreign Service Officer. He has lived, worked, or traveled in more than 100 countries and brings a wealth of global experience to discussions of international relations, diplomacy, and strategic conflict.

Known for his captivating storytelling and deep insight, Ambassador McMullen brings global complexity into focus and makes the most pressing international issues accessible and compelling for public audiences. He is a native of Northwood, lowa, and holds a doctorate in political science from the University of lowa.

Presented in partnership with Oaknoll.

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