July 10, 2025 • 68 mins
On this week’s episode, Israel Policy Forum Policy Advisor and Tel Aviv-based journalist Neri Zilber hosts Tal Shalev, political correspondent at Walla News. They discuss the third meeting this year between President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu in Washington, the prospects for a new Gaza hostage-ceasefire deal, what Netanyahu may want to accomplish now that the Iran war is over, the ultra-Orthodox military conscription crisis roiling the governing coalition, the fractured state of the Israeli opposition, and more.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Neri (00:05):
Shalom and welcome to the Israel Policy Pod.
I'm Nery Zilber, a journalistbased in Tel Aviv and a policy
advisor to Israel Policy Forum,walla News.
Chief political correspondentand friend of the pod, tal
Shalev, is back with us todiscuss Netanyahu-Trump round
three, which happened this weekin Washington.
It's the third time PrimeMinister Netanyahu met withump
Round 3, which happened thisweek in Washington.
It's the third time PrimeMinister Netanyahu met with
(00:27):
President Trump in less than sixmonths since Trump's
inauguration in January, morethan any other world leader,
which seems significant.
Tal and I discussed exactly justhow significant or not this
meeting was in our conversation,especially coming after the
12-day war with Iran and justahead of what many people hope
(00:47):
will be a new Gaza ceasefire forhostage deal.
We also discussed what Bibi maybe thinking now in the wake of
his rather successful campaignagainst Iran, and we'll also get
into the current state of playin Israeli politics, both in the
coalition and God help us inthe opposition as well.
Just a reminder we're also nowa video podcast available on
(01:11):
YouTube so you can see us andnot just hear us, but we're also
, of course, still audio only.
As always, wherever you getyour podcasts, do subscribe and
leave a nice rating and commentif the mood strikes you.
All right Housekeeping over.
Let's get to Tal Shalev.
Tal (01:29):
Hi Tal, welcome back to the podcast Hi Nuri Happy.
Thank you for having me again.
Neri (01:36):
It's really our pleasure to remind you, tal, last time
you were on was in April, justahead of Pesach Passover and
just after the secondTrump-Netanyahu summit in
Washington.
So I wanted to have you on nowfor round three to break it all
down for us.
I think it's fair to say thatback in April the consensus was
(01:57):
that it wasn't a very successfultrip for Bibi Netanyahu to go
meet with Trump.
Trump back then announceddirect talks with Iran.
Seems a bit well, seems a bitfunny.
Now.
He also pressured Netanyahu onthings like Turkey and Syria,
etc.
But we're now after a war withIran and possibly just ahead of
(02:18):
a Gaza ceasefire.
So I guess the first questionto you, tal, and the question on
everyone's mind here and inmany other places what did you
make of the two meetings betweenthe two leaders yesterday, on
Tuesday, and then the nightbefore Monday for dinner?
What do you think in terms ofthe messaging, the optics or
lack thereof?
Tal (02:40):
I think it's too early to call.
I've been saying basically weneed to be, let's be patient.
I mean I know everyone is very.
You know these meetingsyesterday and even the meeting
before, they're not exactly thetraditional protocol meetings
we're used to seeing betweenpresidents and prime ministers,
(03:02):
even between us and Alan Frank.
You know you have thetraditional protocol in which
they have the oval and theymight have, you know, a press
conference later, but hereeverything is in a much more
familiar, like even family-like,manner.
I mean, the first meeting, thefirst meeting was dinner with
sarah and nathaniel.
(03:23):
There, um, and it was extremelyunusual, um.
Neri (03:30):
And the second, I mean I was gonna say unusual is is, to
put it loudly, they were sittingaround.
They were sitting around adinner table.
They let in only the americanjournalists and so they're
asking questions to both leaders.
Nathaniel has his back to thejournalist, so he's turning
around talking to the journalist, talking to trump.
Tal (03:49):
I mean, it's not traditional by any stretch no,
so um, and the meeting yesterdaywas without any press at all,
so um it it's.
It's definitely an interestingvisit, right, uh, like all
Netanyahu visits to the WhiteHouse usually are.
But if there's one thing thatI've learned from all of these
(04:09):
visits even in Trump one and histhird visit in Trump two is
that looks can be deceiving andsometimes there might be a
really grand presentation orfacade for the optics, but at
the end of the day, not much isleft of it.
Even if we go back to the firstmeeting between Trump and
(04:32):
Netanyahu in this term, in thesecond term, the February
meeting, where Trump basicallystarts dreaming about a Riviera
in Gaza and you know Trump'sdreams here of the right wing
dreams of transferring thePalestinians from Gaza I don't
know.
We're almost we're five monthslater and nothing has really
(04:54):
happened there besides, likehere in Israel, getting a lot of
hype about it, but in reality,not much has happened.
So one of the things I havelearned with these meetings is a
it's OK to take a pause and sayI don't know, I have no idea, I
don't really understand what'sgoing on there.
It's clear that something isgoing on, right, but there are
(05:15):
so many scenarios that I canmake up into that, going on,
spanning from Gaza to Iran toSyria to, just, you know,
netanyahu, giving Trumpnomination for a Nobel Prize and
just like being very nice tohim.
It's clear that Netanyahu, fromhis political point of view, he
(05:38):
, you know.
It could be that this is also afacade, that this is something
like this is just a show ofshowing a lot of pressure from
trump on netanyahu, or whateverit can be.
So many scenarios.
So I think we're just in themiddle of the visit um, and we
might even be seeing another uhmeeting um I.
(06:01):
I carefully dare to predict thatthere's a high chance that we
can find it, and I was stayingthere until Sunday or Saturday,
just like previous visits to DC,and suddenly a weekend in DC
will will appear on hisitinerary.
So, basically, I think it's tooearly to try and give signs to
this.
I think it's too early to tryand give science to this.
(06:24):
And another thing that I'velearned is that we are working
with, or we are covering, notworking with.
We're covering and trying toanalyze two leaders who thrive
on disinformation andmisinformation, not only as a
political strategy but, as welearned in this whole 12-day war
(06:47):
with Iran also in their geostrategy, so a geopolitical
strategy.
So I think it's very difficultto try and analyze and to
separate.
What is reality, what is thealternative reality they're both
trying now to create for theirsupporters, and where what
(07:09):
exactly is happening in realityand not in the visuals?
Neri (07:15):
so that's a very important point.
I think all of us, not just inthe business, but all of us
looking on at this relationshipbetween the two leaders and the
two countries, the US and Israel, need to be a bit more humble
after the Iran war Because, likeyou said, that was a purposeful
campaign of misdirection,misinformation.
It was deception to get theIranians off guard and it worked
(07:39):
because I, as listeners of thispodcast know, I got on a plane
to Greece the day before it allstarted.
Tal (07:48):
I got on a plane to the US the day before it started, so
yeah, yeah.
Neri (07:52):
So we all have to be a bit more humble.
And yes, if in April it seemedlike it was an unsuccessful
visit, there were tensions, thistime it seems like there's a
lot more warmth, a lot ofhugging.
Trump said you know, we have atremendously successful
relationship.
I mean, there was a lot ofwarmth there.
(08:13):
At one point I think youprobably saw it too at this
weird dinner table pressconference, non-press conference
Trump was asked about both thetwo state solution and his idea
for the Gaza Riviera and kickingout the Gazans, and he just
deferred to to BB.
He gave the.
He gave the answer to BB whichI don't think I've ever seen.
Tal (08:35):
Yeah, again, we've been hearing a lot.
Also, let's get back to likethe real issues on the table.
Besides the atmosphere, whichis clear, that why there's a
warm atmosphere right nowthey're both after a very
successful campaign politically,or at least in its first image,
(08:57):
in its first response.
It's a select, successfulcampaign and they both want to
project their victory.
That's the atmosphere.
But you know, on the table,basically, if we put aside iran,
because there's probably goingsome something going on between
them, the regards around, andthere's probably something going
on regarding syria, but we lookto, you know, where people's
(09:21):
lives are waiting to the hostagedeal and the war in Gaza,
ending the war in Gaza, then Ikeep getting a real sense of
deja vu to the February meeting,because in the February meeting
it was just after, you know,the January hostage deal and the
White House was briefing thatthey will want to discuss the
(09:43):
terms for ending the war withNetanyahu, and then Netanyahu
came up with all these terms.
He didn't come up, presentedhis terms, expelling all the
Hamas leadership anddemilitarization total
demilitarization.
and here we are five monthslater and the White House is
(10:04):
briefing exactly the same thing,and Net White House is briefing
exactly the same thing, andNetanyahu is briefing exactly
the same thing.
And we're not really movingforward in ending the war on
Gaza.
You know, if we think aboutthat first visit I remember I
was with Netanyahu there Then wewent to Washington expecting
President Trump to, you know,knock on the table and tell him
(10:24):
you know you got to end the warin Gaza.
That didn't, that didn't happen.
So I don't know.
Neri (10:31):
And no, it didn't happen.
And also Trump and hisadministration.
Let Netanyahu restart the warin March, exactly.
Tal (10:39):
On the other hand, you know , we still have the impression
and we know the very strongimpression.
And you know, we still have theimpression and we know the very
strong impression.
President Trump came back fromhis visit to the Gulf states and
we know that the Gulf stateswant to warn Gaza over.
So it really, I think, dependson how much President Trump is
going to let Netanyahu prolongthis war without you know,
(11:03):
because he does have the powerand ability to stop the war if
he wants to, just the way he did, you know, after 12 days with
iran, um, he has the capabilityand the ability to do so he does
.
Neri (11:19):
but it's, like you said, deja vu with regard to earlier
this year, where the consensushere for weeks was that, oh well
, trump will end the war, trumpwill force Netanyahu to end the
war.
That wasn't true back then.
Tal (11:36):
And I'm still not convinced it's true.
Now, and you know, the wholegeopolitical establishment that
is dealing with this issuecontinues to abide by the
formula that is designed forNetanyahu's political needs here
in Israel, which means that youwill have a phased deal instead
of one ceasefire permanentceasefire, ending the war in
(11:59):
exchange for all of the hostages.
So we're continuing to splitthe ceasefire into a
never-ending ceasefire andhostage deal so that Netanyahu
won't need to end the war.
And just earlier this week,before he left well, as
(12:21):
Netanyahu was basically leavingfor the US the Defense
Ministry's live chat had abriefing with the military
reporters in which he presentedbefore well, as nathaniel was
basically leaving for the us,the defense ministry side talks
had a briefing with the militaryreporters in which he presented
israel's new goal, which is, uh, building a humanitarian uh
city near rafah um and movingall the palestinians there.
And it's exactly.
You know, and we're hearing somuch about you.
(12:42):
You know the Morag corridor,that is the.
You know, a year ago that wasPhiladelphia and a year and a
half ago that was Rafah.
So he just continued to findexcuses or you know, pegs, to
campaign on them, which arebasically conditions that make a
(13:03):
ceasefire almost impossible,because the Samaritans will
never accept these terms.
Neri (13:10):
Right.
So we also have to be a bithumble.
We're recording this, asmentioned, wednesday afternoon,
tel Aviv time.
So you know the mood musicyesterday from Steve Witkoff was
well.
We're hoping for a deal by thisweekend.
We'll see.
I think that's a bit optimistic, but you never know.
But my question to you, tal areyou optimistic that at least
(13:32):
this initial 60-day ceasefire,the first stage of a ceasefire,
will be attained, that we'll getthe terms between Israel and
Hamas and get at least half thehostages back?
I mean at least that let alone,you know, leaving aside end of
war negotiations and hopefullyculminations, but at least the
initial 60 day ceasefire.
Do you think that's possible?
Tal (13:55):
I'm not sure that's even possible, given Netanyahu's
insistence now on the Moragcorridor.
If he continues to insist, onthe.
Morag corridor?
I'm not sure it's possible, uh,but I will try.
I am still trying to remainoptimist, even if it's not
necessarily uh realistic.
To remain uh optimist because Ithink you know we are at a
(14:19):
moment at at large, regardingthis deal, regarding the war in
d, regarding the Middle East,that you know there is an
opportunity to design, you know,to rise from the ashes of this
war and really design a betterenvironment and a better, you
know, regional, a betterregional security system or
(14:45):
architecture, and I think thatyou know, of all people,
probably President Trump is theone who may be able to do it so,
and I do think that he's theonly person who can end the war
on Gaza.
So it's better to be optimisticthan be pessimistic at this
(15:06):
moment, even if it doesn'treally it doesn't, it's not
really compatible with reality.
But someone mentioned, by theway, someone mentioned a quote
by Simon Peres.
It's not an exact quote, butsomething about you can be an
optimist and you can be apessimist, and the end you die.
It just determines how mucheveryone dies, it just
(15:27):
determines how much you sufferon the way till you die.
So it's better to be optimistic.
Neri (15:35):
It's definitely better to be optimistic, but also
realistic.
I'm curious why are you morepessimistic than many other
people here and other peoplethat I've spoken to who think
that a 60 day ceasefire is isattainable?
You know, again, they need tonegotiate the final details,
including about the morgue court.
Tal (15:54):
It's attainable, it's attainable, as President Trump
tells Netanyahu let's get itover with.
But and we need to.
I mean, I mean, probably Hamasalso needs to be pushed a bit
more.
But I can also see a scenarioin which these conditions blow
it up.
I mean, at the end of the day,you know, and this has been true
(16:19):
since January 2024.
Hamas wants to end the war,netanyahu doesn't wants to end
the war.
Netanyahu doesn't want to endthe war.
I mean, that's their maindemand and that's his main
condition.
And since January 2024, youknow, because of this
architecture and these, therehave been many phased deals that
(16:42):
have been designed.
But at the end of the day, inorder to end the war, you have
to have Netanyahu willing to endthe war, and with this
coalition he can't do that.
Neri (16:54):
Right, so we'll get into potentially end of war.
I mean, that's kind of two orthree steps from now in just a
second, trust me.
But let's let's play theoptimists for a second.
Let's say that Trump nudgesNetanyahu and Hamas towards a
deal.
They agree on 60 days.
Again, the details still needto be firmed up and they're, I
(17:16):
think, more in flux now thanthey were maybe a few days ago,
but hopefully there will be adeal.
Do you think if there's a 60day pause in the war and an IDF
withdrawal and all the otherthings Israel has to give to get
at least half the hostages back, that Netanyahu's coalition
can't survive?
Tal (17:36):
That's tough.
Neri (17:37):
And, by the way, tal OK, that's interesting because you
said the same thing back inJanuary when we had you on, and
you back then.
Then you don't remember this, Ido.
I also went back and checked.
You said smotrich will stay inthe coalition yeah in in january
, before before the deal, andthat wasn't a given, because he,
like smotrich, does issues alot of threats.
Smotrich stayed in thecoalition bengville left for two
(17:59):
months and then he came back.
What do you think will happen?
Tal (18:01):
so one of the reasons that Netanyahu is so adamant now on
the Morag corridor is forSmotrich not to leave the
coalition in a 60 day deal.
That's one of Smotrich'sconditions.
But I still think thatNetanyahu's coalition can
survive a 60-day hiatus in thewar and ceasefire and another
(18:27):
partial deal.
A because you know Smotrichdidn't leave the previous time,
so why should he leave now?
He still doesn't pass theelectoral threshold in most of
the polls, so he still is theonly one in the coalition I mean
he has the least interest inthe whole coalition to bring
down the government.
B Ben Gville already kind ofmade a fool out of himself in
(18:52):
the previous deal when he leftand then after two months rushed
back in.
He can't play that trick again.
So that's the second reason.
And the third reason is justthe timing, and this could also
be one of the reasons that wemight see a delay in the
timetable for such a deal.
(19:14):
So today we're on the 9th ofJuly, the Knesset dissolves for
its summer recess on the 27th ofJuly, but the last week is
literally nothing.
So basically there are two moreweeks left for the coalition to
(19:34):
survive and if Netanyahu stallsthis deal even a week, then
there's no even real practicalway to bring down the government
.
I said it'll be very, verydifficult procedurally, even if
there is a big, big, big falloutin the coalition and, by the
way, this applies also to what'shappening with the Haredim and
(19:58):
the draft crisis, which we'lltalk about later.
But just the timing is good forNetanyahu.
Netanyahu just needs to survivetwo more weeks in this Pneset
session and then he has threemonths of summer recess in which
the coalition is not likely tofall.
So it just seems like thetimetable.
(20:20):
So that's why I think Netanyahuis trying, or might be trying,
to push the deal as close to therecess as possible, in a way to
secure his coalition fromfalling apart, even from another
interim deal.
Neri (20:36):
Right, I think our friends Shira Afran and Michael Koplow,
on last week's episode got intothe whole timetable issue and
yeah, wouldn't be surprised ifit, if it took the negotiators
exactly two, two more weeks tonail down all the details and
then he can go for a 60-dayceasefire, uh, with a cleaner
and uh well, a cleaner, acleaner mind, cleaner conscience
(20:59):
, uh.
By the way, the knesset recessuh goes on until, I think,
mid-october, after the holidays,so it's a very, very long break
.
Also, another thing in terms ofjust timetable, not a minor
point the courts here in Israelalso go on summer break.
I think in the next week or twothey come back, I think, for a
(21:19):
short period in September, butthen obviously the holidays
interject.
So basically, netanyahu has tomake it for another two weeks
and you know he can go onvacation.
I mean he won't, but he could.
He could at least politicallyand legally, um, okay.
So very interesting.
With regard to the coalition,you don't think they have as
(21:41):
much leverage as they pretend.
You don't think bengal andsmall teacher, you know um going
to threaten and actuallyexecute, toppling the government
over this, uh, the ceasefiredeal, despite the fact you know
as well as I do that?
Elections are already in theair, early elections do you
think that's spin, speculation,unrealistic?
Tal (22:05):
Well, I think you know, even there wasn't like kind of
speculation or rumor or reportafter the Iran war was over that
Netanyahu was contemplating aspeed election.
A there's no such thing inIsrael as speed election.
I mean by law, it takes threemonths and it's very difficult
(22:25):
to make it shorter.
B as far as I know, netanyahuis not considering any speedy
elections at the moment.
A it's not as if the Iranattack, the Iran success, uh,
totally changed the polls andfrom his point of view, it had
minor impact.
(22:46):
It does.
It did have some impact, but itwas minor, uh, not dramatic
enough at the moment for him tofeel secure enough to go uh to
uh to an early election and seeit's already you.
The timetable for the nextelection is quite clear, without
like being a profit, but youknow the Knesset is going to
(23:13):
come back from its summer recessin October and the government
needs to pass another budget,the 2026 budget, by the 31st of
March to the latest Right.
So the assumption is that theywill not pass another budget
(23:33):
because the budgets include alot of tax raising and difficult
measures that will not bepopular if you're going to
elections anyway in October 2026.
So, to the latest, thegovernment will fall by the 31st
of March and it might beearlier, a bit earlier, but it's
not going to fall in October.
(23:54):
It's not going to fall.
There won't be elections inOctober.
The earliest timetable that youcan see elections right now,
and again without being aprophet, seems that January 2026
.
So the elections will besomewhere between January 2026
(24:17):
to October 2026.
We'll have elections.
Neri (24:25):
Still, it'll be one of the longest lasting governments
this country has had in the pastfew years, which is interesting
enough.
Well, it's interesting becausethey're the government of
October 7th Exactly, and evenbefore that.
Tal (24:34):
Yeah, they are one of the most, let's say, aggressive
governments, to the least thatthe country is at, but they
share a lot of interests, sotheir shared interests kind of
keep them together and I don'tsee, you know, there are slight
(24:54):
creeds in their shared interests, but not enough yet to bring
the government down.
Neri (25:01):
Right?
Well, we'll do a postmortemabout this government when
elections are called.
Believe me, um, that will be, uh, that will be a fun day and a
fun episode.
Uh, just to finish up this, uh,netanyahu and it's related to
trump, but it's mostly aboutnetanyahu.
You have, uh, a lot ofnetanyahu hours, as I say here.
(25:22):
Uh, you've been covering himfor years, you've met with him
countless times.
What do you think he actuallywants right now?
Coming out of the Iran war, the12-day campaign very successful
I mean leaving aside the kindof military achievements, but
just it's viewed in Israel asvery successful.
It's Netanyahu actuallyachieving his ultimate dream and
(25:47):
his life's mission to bomb Iranand its nuclear facilities.
And so coming out of it.
There's a lot of questions andspeculation.
Okay, now that he did that,what does he want to do?
I don't want to say with therest of his life, but with the
rest of this political term, andthere are obviously all kinds
(26:07):
of ideas between ending the gazawar, a deal with saudi for
normalization three deals.
Some people are a plea dealretirement um what do you think?
Tal (26:19):
so here is where I am.
I admit that I sometimes don'tknow, especially since, you know
, 2023 and this government wasestablished because, you know,
netanyahu always had his two biggoals, which was Iran, the
normalization of Saudi Arabia.
These are the things that hewrote in his autobiography that
(26:42):
he wants to leave as his legacy,and that is basically, you know
, been one of the school ofthoughts through which we
analyze Netanyahu over the pastfew years.
But when he established thisgovernment in January 2023,
(27:03):
after the 2022 elections, hebasically, you know, the
judicial overhaul and the veryright-wing partners that he
chose basically arecounter-effective to these two
goals.
A.
For the first nine months, thisgovernment, you know, waged a
war inside Israel, attacking thesame pilots that brought
(27:27):
Netanyahu his victory in Iranand, you know, waged this very
deep internal war, which onlymade Israel weaker, which is
against, you know, netanyahu'swhole philosophy of peace
through strength, wholephilosophy of peace through
strength.
So that is where I started toquestion, you know, what are
(27:49):
Netanyahu's real goals?
Because you have Netanyahu, youknow the statesman who has
these two goals of Iran andSaudi Arabia.
One of them, it seems like it'sbeen a huge success.
We don't know how it will go.
I mean it has been a hugesuccess.
(28:09):
We don't know how it will go.
I mean it has been a hugesuccess, military, but from the
point of view of the nuclearprogram it's still.
We still have to wait and see.
I mean, right, the operationwas a huge success from israel's
image and you know some of thedestruction and we have hit
major facilities and the overalloperation was war was very
successful.
Regarding this specific goal ofthe nuclear program, I think
(28:29):
it's too early for us to call ahistory.
We'll probably uh right if thisuh was the truth call, but
there's also nathaniel thepolitician and nathaniel who the
was indicted, and these nNetanyahu the politician always
wants to survive and that's thefirst and most important thing
for him.
(28:49):
And Netanyahu, who's indictedand is in court, also wants to
get out, doesn't want to go tojail.
So having all of these threedifferent Netanyahus together
makes me question what does hewant?
Because on the paper, he wantsSaudi Arabia and Iran.
But when you take the two otheraspects of his personality and
(29:12):
leadership the fact that he willdo anything to survive,
including building a coalitionwith the most radical elements
in the political arena, and hiswill to survive his trial.
That has changed.
You know, changes his calculusin a way that it somewhat
(29:34):
difficult to predict what hewants or understand what he
wants uh, hugely difficult to uhto analyze and predict.
Neri (29:43):
Uh.
Also, he may not have decidedeither, so that makes it even
harder to say with X certainty.
Tal (29:51):
He probably wants everything and he's just
throwing all the balls and seewhich one of them falls.
It's also one of his housetactics, right?
He plays on a lot of games andone of the games will turn out
his way.
Right?
He paints on a lot of games andone of the games will turn out
his way Right.
Neri (30:08):
He paints on a very, very wide canvas to his credit and
then he chooses usually at the Idon't want to say the last
minute, but usually after thelast minute which direction he's
going to take, it whichdirection he's going to take.
(30:28):
But it is curious.
You saw it during the Iran warand after the Iran war it was
almost a different Netanyahu.
He was out in public, like hisChurchill moment, going to
impact sites in Batyam andBeersheba.
He's back giving pressconferences.
He didn't give pressconferences for months.
Tal (30:40):
Yeah, it wasn't a real press conference.
It wasn't a real pressconference.
It was a press conference onvideo right, it was a Zoom press
conference.
Neri (30:49):
Yeah, but he also.
He was standing in front of thehospital of Soroka in Beersheba
answering questions fromjournalists.
Tal (30:55):
Well of course, because he wanted to claim his victory.
You know it was his chance tomake the rounds that he didn't
make after October 7th.
You know he disappeared afterOctober 7th.
He wasn't Completely Because hedidn't want the photos on
October 7th to serve in his nextcampaign or in his opponent's
next election campaign, but thephotos of Iran is exactly what
(31:20):
he wants.
Neri (31:21):
But late last week he did finally go to Nero's, the
kibbutz down on the Gaza borderthat was the worst hit.
A quarter of the population,the residents there were either
murdered or taken hostage.
So he waited a year and a half,over 600 days, did not go to
Niros, did not deign to go toNiros because of those images
(31:41):
that he felt so threatened by.
And yet end of last week hewent.
Why?
Well, first of all, Because hefelt more confident.
Tal (31:50):
Yeah, because he felt more confident because he has now,
you know, rebuilt his image asMr Security.
And it's important to know NeilO's today does not look the
same way it looked 640 days ago.
It's already, you know, in theprocess of rebuilding itself.
I mean, it's not that walkingin the you know paths of Nero's
(32:15):
it's still quite a shiveringexperience, you know haunting
experience.
But it's not where, a year andover a year and nine months
after the massacre and this is acommunity that, at the basis of
it, wants to, you know, reviveitself.
So that's the Niroz he arrivedat.
And he also arrives at Niroz ata moment before he goes to the
(32:39):
US to negotiate a hostage dealand to supposedly bring back
some of the Nilo's hostages home.
And in that respect, you know,no one in Nilo's had, you know,
the gut to tell him, or not.
No one, some of them, some, butyou know most of the people, of
(33:00):
the hostages families.
All they want to make sure isthat their son will come home
right now.
So it was, I think, a muchcalmer atmosphere than it was.
And I got to say, you know thefact that he went to Niroz after
630 days, I think it was, orwhen he was there 634, 630 days,
(33:26):
I think it was, or when he wasthere, 634.
It doesn't erase the fact thathe wasn't there for the 634 days
up until that.
I mean, it does, you know,start amending?
And he's, by the way, he's thefirst Israeli prime minister
ever in Israel's history to evercome to Neot, ever in Israel's
history to ever come to Neroz,because it's such a distant and
(33:47):
far away kibbutz that no Israeliprime minister ever had reason
to visit Neroz.
Neri (33:53):
Is that right?
Not any of the labor primeministers?
No, wow, okay.
Tal (33:59):
So again, I think you know it was personally.
For me, the visit to Nilo wasafter the massacre, was one of
the most defining, you know,moments of this war, and I also
was very critical of Netanyahunot going there for so long.
(34:22):
So I'm really happy that hewent there, but do I think that
people will forget in the OZthat he wasn't there for all
this time?
Not sure.
Neri (34:35):
No, I mean, these aren't exactly the coup voters anyway,
and, like you said, though, theyreceived him very respectfully
I don't want to say warmly, butit was very respectful.
Well, they're men, right?
Tal (34:49):
one of the things that we learned about these amazing
communities and the Gazaenvelope is that they really are
like people that you want togrow up and be like them, and
they're, you know.
Neri (35:01):
So they're just a group of men, so that's why they were
very polite to him yeah, uh, Imean, we've we've all seen it in
under the worst conditions andcontext possible due to october
7th, but, uh, it was uh onething that came out of octoberth
(35:22):
and this war is the reminderthat, yes, there are still
kibbutzim in Israel and yes,there are still kibbutznikim in
Israel, and it actually isamazing communities and amazing
people that still exist in areal way and also you know that
the people living in thesecommunities on the Gaza border
(35:44):
are, you know they're protectingus, you know.
Tal (35:50):
Anyway, they are very moving people.
They really are.
Neri (35:55):
They could have been your neighbors, Tal, if you had moved
down there.
Tal (35:59):
You never know, maybe they will be one day.
Neri (36:02):
Maybe they will be.
I know that's you wouldseriously consider it.
Mm-hmm, it will happen one day.
It will happen one day, maybethey will be.
Tal (36:05):
I know that's uh, you would seriously consider it will
happen one day.
It'll happen one day yeah, it'suh.
Neri (36:10):
I mean we've talked about it.
Uh, both on this podcast andprivately.
It's, it is.
It is a beautiful and amazingpart of uh, of this country.
Um, that was went through, youknow, a mini holocaust uh, on
that day.
Uh, yeah, awkward transition,but I'm going to transition
anyway.
Let's get into the great gameIsraeli domestic politics.
(36:32):
We'll start with the governingcoalition, then we'll switch to
the opposition.
In terms of the coalition,right now, the big issue before
the Iran attack was the crisisover drafting the ultra-Orthodox
, the Haredim, into the IDF,into the idf uh, and the big
(36:56):
crisis as we speak today, afterthe iran war uh, is the crisis
over drafting the haridim uhinto the idf, and the hardy
parties are back boycotting uhthe coalition and any
legislation that the coalitionwants to propose.
Uh, there was even an op-edthis morning.
I'm sure you saw it brilliantbig ashkenazi.
Tal (37:10):
It was brilliant.
I loved it, so let me.
I loved it so for our, for ourlisteners and viewers.
Neri (37:15):
Let me just explain so.
In one of the big um organs ofthe ashkenazi uh heresy
newspapers and it's a big thingbecause obviously they're less
online than um, than me and taland all of you so the newspapers
still carry a lot of weight,the hard copies.
Uh, there was an editorial thatcompared netanyahu to churchill
.
Tal (37:36):
Uh, and not in a good way well, it didn't really mention
what was brilliant about it andit wasn't even mentioned by his
name.
It was just like right, thestory of churchill it was.
And guess who loves churchill?
Who is the biggest admirer ofChurchill in Israel?
Netanyahu.
So it was a clear message toNetanyahu.
Neri (37:59):
And it wasn't that Churchill won World War II and
that he was a great leader.
It was how this great leader,the magic, expired and he wasn't
reelected right after the war.
And yes, netanyahu wasn'tmentioned by name, but the
message definitely came across.
Okay, we'll be right back afterthis brief message.
Speaker 3 (38:20):
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(38:41):
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show notes.
Neri (39:16):
So given this editorial and given the behavior of the
Haredi parties in Knesset, areyou concerned for Netanyahu and
the future stability of thiscoalition?
Or are they flexing theirmuscles but really they're not
going to leave?
Tal (39:34):
So we went through the timetable right.
We have about 14 days for thiscoalition, that it needs to
survive and it's.
The Haredi are serious atNetanyahu, at Yulia Dostain, who
is the head of the DefenseCommittee in the Knesset, who's
(39:55):
supposed to be drafting the bill.
You know, de facto, and there'sdefinitely a lot of emotions
and noise in the air, but A justlike Benghazi, you know the
Haredim are already threateningto bring down the government two
(40:19):
weeks, three, four weeks ago,before the attack on Iran.
So they can't really use thatstick again, right, and they
also don't really have aninterest to bring down the
government as long as it seemslike the next government could
be established without them.
And, given theanti-ultra-Orthodox sentiment in
(40:42):
Israeli society right now, thatis like a real possibility that
there will be a governmentwithout the ultra-Orthodox
parties that will actuallylegislate a real draft bill,
because it's such a hot topic,you know, right now in Israel
and there are people who willmake it a hot topic in the next
(41:02):
elections as well.
So the atmosphere in theKnesset is not as of a real
crisis, but like everyoneunderstands that there's not
enough time right now, buteveryone has to play their game,
so the Haredi need to makethemselves sound angry and say
(41:23):
you know hates and stories aboutChurchill to Netanyahu, so that
everyone knows that they'reangry and they're threatening
Netanyahu, but nothing is reallyhappening.
That being said, two weeks is along time.
So when Netanyahu gets back fromWashington, you know the fact
that he went away in the midstof this crisis.
(41:44):
Also, you know if it was a realpolitical crisis, a real, real,
real political crisis, we knowNetanyahu has no to postpone or
delay flights, so we're just notin crisis mode.
We're just not in crisis moderight now, but there is it's
also.
It's kind of a deja vu, right?
I mean, basically, since thisgovernment was established,
(42:06):
every few months the paradingare angry that Netanyahu hasn't
promoted the draft exemptionbill yet, and every few months
they have to threaten withsomething and nothing happens.
At the end, everyone is justlike stalling time.
One of the things that doesdisturb the Haredim very much is
(42:27):
the fact that you're hearingvoices from the IDF preparing to
have a wide scale operation in.
Not if they're not, if theoperating don't, don't come to
to to the army.
(43:00):
So that is a big issue.
I mean, if we start to seeYeshiva boys arrested because
they didn't go to the army whenthey got the draft notice, and
that will bring down thecoalition immediately.
Neri (43:15):
But that hasn't happened yet right and it remains to be
seen how.
I mean how widespread the wellthe draft notices will go out,
but how widespread the actualenforcement of the draft notices
will go out, but how widespreadthe actual enforcement of those
draft notices will be.
I find it hard to believe thatthe IDF is going to send
(43:36):
military police into Bnei Brak,banging on doors and carting off
yeshiva boys.
Tal (43:42):
Yeah, I find it hard to believe.
Neri (43:44):
So again, but they're not going to raid Bnei Brak like
it's.
I don't want to compare it tosomething else, but I find it
very hard to believe.
Also, the Israel police underItamar Ben-Gvil I don't Will
they take part in that?
I doubt it.
So I'll believe it when I seeit.
(44:06):
But I think they're unhappywith Netanyahu because he did
promise them a whole bunch ofthings.
But I think they're unhappywith Netanyahu because he did
promise them a whole bunch ofthings and now what?
Two, two and a half years intothis government, it hasn't, they
haven't gotten anything.
Tal (44:16):
Yeah, but it's their fault, right?
I don't know.
I mean tough flesh.
I mean there's a long list ofpeople who believe Netanyahu's
promises and you knowcommitments and like there's a
whole graveyard of them.
You know of broken promises bynathaniel, so, um, they.
You know, if we go back to this, historically, this was the
(44:40):
core, um, one of the fourelements of the coalition
agreements that nathaniel madewith the already parties, that
he would legislate a bill thatwould regulate the fact that
they don't go to the army.
Um, but then came the judicialoverhaul, and that was more
important for him to promotewhen the government was
established, and you know, so onand so forth.
(45:01):
Here we are, two and a halfyears later here we are each
time he told them after thebudget, no, after the next
budget, after the next budget.
Neri (45:09):
So yeah, yeah, and, and now they're, uh, they're making
their voices heard, but, uh, interms of, uh, I say, a graveyard
of broken promises, a boulevardof broken dreams, uh, I mean,
the the experts in this are isthe opposition.
So we have to, we have to talkabout the opposition and bennyz
(45:30):
is the expert on it.
Tal (45:31):
We'll get to Benny.
Neri (45:34):
Gantz in just a second.
Benny Gantz is only the latestand greatest.
Tal (45:41):
I think of the current opposition, Benny Gantz is
probably the man who hasaccumulated the most broken
promises from Netanyahu.
Yeah, but that's because againwe chose to believe him to begin
with.
Neri (45:56):
Yeah, again, we'll get into Benny Gantz and the whole
issue surrounding him in just asecond.
But I'm old enough, and you'reold enough, to remember Shaul
Mofaz, the head of Kadima, whosepolitical career ended almost
overnight when he believedNetanyahu, by the way, over this
very issue drafting the Harediminto the army back in what was
(46:18):
it?
2012.
Ewood Barak also lost hispolitical support because he
went into government with BibiNetanyahu.
And on and on and on it goes.
Anyway, we're not here to lookback, we're here to look forward
, looking forward.
So the first opposition figure Iwanted to talk about, gadi
(46:40):
Aizenkot, the former IDF chiefof staff, who entered politics
and joined Benny Gantz'sNational Unity Party ahead of
the last election and last weeksplit with Benny Gantz at his
National Unity Party.
And also, gadi Aizenkot leftthe Knesset.
He resigned, but he is planningon coming back.
(47:00):
Just a question of in whatformation, formulation or
context.
So what do you think of GadiAizenkot's move and what do you
think the future holds for GaddiEisenkot, who is a very popular
politician here in Israel, Ihave to be said?
Tal (47:15):
Well, he's a very popular figure.
He's one of the most popularfigures in Israel, but I
wouldn't Gaddi.
Eisenkot is not yet apolitician, even though he has
been in politics for three years.
It's a very importantdistinction to make.
Yes, I'm not sure he will everbe a politician, and that's one
(47:36):
of the perhaps one of thereasons that he's so likable and
so popular, uh, as a person, um, but um, I think we need to
start this discussion a withbenny dance, because it should
be mentioned that DaddyEisenquist is Gantz's fifth
partner leaving him since heentered politics.
(47:57):
Benny Gantz entered politics in2019, late 2018.
He had Moshe Ya'alon not withhim anymore.
Then he had Yair Lapid not withhim anymore.
Then he had Gabi Eskenazi notwith him anymore, and now he had
he had Gabi, I think, what lefthim as well.
Neri (48:22):
He also he also you left, you left out of.
You left out a few people no no, the number.
Tal (48:27):
Speaking about, about the number, like the number two, the
people that are the number twopartners.
Neri (48:33):
These were partners.
Tal (48:34):
he built a partnership with lapid gabby eskenazi and, we'll
say, alone, and he built apartnership with viva sal and
daddy eisenfeld, and both ofthese partnerships collapsed.
And this is a man whose maincampaign is that he is a person
of agreements and partnerships,but but he can't even.
(48:54):
I mean, if we look at hisrecord, he has no ability of
maintaining partnerships in hisown household and in his own
party.
So, first of all, I think thatGadi Aydinput's leaving Benny
Gantz is crucial, or it might be, you know, the final block in
seeing what isot leaving BennyGantz is crucial, or it might be
, you know, the final block inseeing what is happening with
(49:15):
Benny Gantz.
He has had his ups and downs,but Gadi Aizenkot was Benny
Gantz's main political asset inthe previous campaign, in the
previous elections, and it'll bevery difficult for him to
reinvent himself right now.
We can get back to him later.
Now about Isingkort he basicallyneeds to decide what he wants
(49:36):
to do.
He basically he can go whereverhe wants.
He has an offer.
Well, it's not on the record,but it's clear that if he wanted
, yair Lapid would offer him thehead of his party.
(49:58):
Really, yeah, lapid has beenvague about it, but it's on the
table.
Lapid is not doing well in thepolls, yair Golan is like going
ahead of him inside his ownblock and he needs to find a way
to reinvent himself, and DaddyEisenkot is a way to reinvent
(50:22):
himself.
He also has an offer fromNaftali Bennett, but not to be
number one, to be number two.
And you also have Y yan golanfrom the left and his party
calling for some big unification, uh, of all of the parties.
And he needs to decide what hewhere he wants to go.
(50:44):
Does he want to be number one?
Does he want to be primeminister?
Does he want to?
Where does he want to take hispolitical rear from his
statements?
You know, gaddi Eisenkot is avery sincere and authentic
person, so you understand thathe wants to be part of the
leadership that replaces thisgovernment and replaces the
(51:04):
current leadership.
But he's not necessarily keenon being the leader.
And if he wants to be theleader, then that's what he
needs to decide.
And he will need to start, youknow, building a block, or
building at least an image, orcampaigning on that image.
He had what was consideredsomewhat, you know, weak debut.
(51:28):
He had a press conference lastweek.
I think it's a bit I kind ofdefer to most of my colleagues
on this that the acting code isnot Bibi Netanyahu.
He'll never be Bibi Netanyahu.
He doesn't know how to speakeloquently like Bibi Netanyahu.
He doesn't know how to campaignand do the optics and the
(51:52):
visuals and the gestures and the.
You know the whole show.
He doesn't give a show.
He's exactly the opposite.
He's a totally authentic person.
So even trying to judge him byNetanyahu's standards is just
wrong.
And one of the things here inIsrael is that you know we've
gotten used so much toNetanyahu's standards is just
wrong.
(52:12):
And one of the things here inIsrael is that you know we've
gotten used so much toNetanyahu's leadership style
that everything is compared tohim and everyone is like
everyone needs to be a mini-BB.
But perhaps I think thatperhaps that he includes
authenticity and you know thefact that Israelis believe him
and they like him could be areal serious, a really
(52:36):
significant asset if he, if andwhen he decides how he wants to
take his career from from hereon.
Neri (52:46):
Okay, so that's Kadia Azinkot TBD.
But he doesn't have to be BibiNetanyahu, but I think he does
have to be an effectivecommunicator and some kind of
politician to do the job.
Tal (52:59):
Listen, I don't think he's not a politician at all.
I mean he does.
You know he's been, heunderstands.
Up until now he was BennyGantz's number two so he didn't
need to play the moves.
Now he needs to start playingthe moves and, um, he needs to
decide, I think, if he wants toplay the moves and what moves.
(53:21):
Uh, he wants to play and heneeds to, you know, start
building himself.
Um, there's also kind of this um, you know he is in the danger
of getting wearied off with time, um, so he needs to find a way
to remain.
You know he is in the danger ofgetting weared off with time,
so he needs to find a way toremain.
You know he left the Knessetyou mentioned, so he needs to
find a way to remain relevant,even if he's not the Knesset.
(53:43):
So he has a lot of decisionsthat he needs to make if he
wants to become part of theleadership.
But you know, the main decisionis what is the vision that he
wants to present as his vision?
Is it a Naftali Bennett vision?
Is it closer to Naftali Bennett?
Is it closer to Yair Lapid?
I think that if he will joinYair Lapid, it will change the
(54:07):
way, the map, it could changethe way the map looks.
We're also in that stage aheadof the election in which
everyone is polling 25 differentscenarios each poll.
What happens if Gadi Azikot isnumber two and Avigdor Ivanovich
is number three?
It's a very exhausting stage inthe election.
It'll take a few months.
(54:28):
So it also depends, I think, onwhat constellation god the
eisenberg will believe he is themost significant in.
I mean, in what constellationhe can become most significant
and, you know, contribute tobringing down nathaniel and
replacing the government okay.
Neri (54:49):
Um, so our second uh figure already mentioned, uh,
benny gantz.
Uh, we touched on him a littlebit but, like, why has benny
gantz found it so difficult toget along with his political
partners?
Uh, and also, what does thefuture hold for him?
At the peak right of hispopularity, probably the first
(55:11):
year of the actual Gaza warafter October 7th, he was
leading in all the polls, high30s, sometimes close to 40.
Now he's at four seats, indanger, like Batella Smoltych,
of not even making it into thenext Knesset due to the
electoral threshold.
So what happened?
Tal (55:31):
So, first, of all it actually covering it and now
covering.
I always talk about covering itnow, but covering benny gantz
when he took like a, when hetakes like a glimpse from afar,
um, it's been quite a rollercoaster, right, because he for
three election campaigns he wasthe main contender to replace
nathanahu and then he was evensubstitute prime minister in
(55:56):
their first government.
And then he, from being themost promising politician in the
center-left after he joinedNetanyahu, he sinked down and
almost didn't pass the electoralthreshold.
And then he hardly.
Then he made himself.
He brought in Gadiadzic and hedidn't sound.
(56:17):
And suddenly he was amedium-sized party again.
And then in the midst of thewar, right in the beginning of
the war, he was the most popularpolitician again.
And suddenly again it was like,oh, he's the next prime
minister.
And here we are, a year andnine months later, and he again,
after Eisenkot leaving, he onceagain is close to the electoral
threshold in the polls andthere have been speculations
(56:40):
that well, it hasn't beenactually only speculation.
Ali Ederi, netanyahu's partnerin the coalition, the leader of
Chass even, was trying toconvince Netanyahu to bring
Benny Gantz back into thegovernment right now for the
third time in order to secure ahostage deal without Benzir and
(57:04):
Smotrich rattling the coalition.
But Netanyahu didn't even wantto hear about it.
So Gantz is now basically.
When eisencourt left, helaunched a new campaign, which
once again he's talking about awide agreement um government.
(57:25):
Uh, in the next, a wideconsensus government, the 70
consent, a consensus governmentof 70 people in the next
government, and this is likeprobably going to be his
campaign all the way.
But Benny Gantz will alwayshave now like the question mark
will he go with Bibi?
After he does it twice?
(57:45):
And in an election ecosystemand a political ecosystem in
which you know, at the end ofthe day, the main question in
every election is yes or no Bibi, that might become very
unpopular and you know his brandis already so weakened I mean,
it's such, the brand is just andhe's also not relevant.
(58:05):
So Gantz as well will have tomake decisions where he's going.
Someone in the anti-Netanyahubloc said to me I don't
understand why we continue tocount him as part of our bloc,
because I can definitely see asituation in which after the
(58:27):
next election, he joins thegovernment with Netanyahu and
Gantz's campaign, as opposed toprobably most of the other
parties in that bloc, is goingto be, that he's not going to
disqualify Netanyahu, becausethere's no point in
disqualifying Netanyahu afterhe's sat with him twice in the
(58:48):
past five years.
So there are.
Gantz is going to be, I think,you know, I don't know how he
can, you know, reinvent himselfafter you know, being so
battered from all of, from somany directions.
And if he doesn't reinventhimself, if he can't reinvent
(59:09):
himself, he will reach asituation in which he might, you
know, he could turn into thenext Merav Mikhaeli, because
he'll be very close to theelectoral threshold.
And then people will bepressuring him to either join
another party or drop out of therace because of the risk of,
(59:30):
you know, losing those votes ifhe doesn't pass the electoral
threshold.
Neri (59:36):
Yeah, for our listeners.
Merab Mikhaeli, obviously theformer head of the Labor Party
who, ahead of the November 22election, refused to join forces
with Meretz.
She said both would pass theelectoral threshold.
Meretz did not pass theelectoral threshold and it cost.
I don't know if it cost theinternet, but it could have been
(59:58):
a very different result ifMeretz had been caught.
Tal (01:00:01):
We know exactly that they wouldn't have won the election.
I mean, Netanyahu still wouldhave won, but he would have a 61
coalition and not a 64coalition.
And a 61-seat coalition is acoalition you can.
It's much easier to bring down.
A 61-seat coalition is acoalition you can.
It's much easier to bring downa 61-seat coalition than a
64-seat coalition right.
Neri (01:00:21):
um, the uh, final figure in the opposition I want to talk
about tal.
Uh, I'm an order, so I'm anorder.
Uh, he's the head of the Hadashfaction in the Knesset, which
is predominantly Arab-Israeliand most definitely communist.
It's usually part of the Arabbloc in the Knesset.
(01:00:41):
There's a move underway toactually impeach him and kick
him out of the Knesset After atweet he wrote in January
expressing happiness that bothIsraeli hostages and Palestinian
prisoners were being releasedas part of the then ceasefire
deal in Gaza back in January.
So people saw this tweet asequating the two Israeli
(01:01:02):
hostages and Palestinianprisoners, caused a big uproar,
and now they want to kick himout of the Knesset entirely
Truly an unprecedented move.
The big thing here is that theopposition MKs in the committee
that voted on this last week.
They voted in favor to impeachhim, and also opposition leader
(01:01:22):
Yaya Lapid said this pastweekend that he would vote in
favor of impeaching Ayman Odehwhen it came to the plenum the
full plenum next week On Mondayyeah.
So, yeah, I personally thinkthis is a disgrace, um, and, by
the way, just bad politics forthe opposition, because, uh,
(01:01:44):
they, they don't want all of thearab mks to be disqualified,
because that will tilt theentire political map in
netanyahu and the right wing'sfavor.
The opposition, as theopposition here does, thinks
about things maybe in very shortterm, short term terms.
But what do you think aboutthis whole saga?
Tal (01:02:04):
Well, first of all, I agree that it's a disgrace.
I think it's for differentreasons.
I think it's a disgrace becausethis whole procedure that is
used against Ayman Ulda is aprocedure that was legislated in
2016.
And it says that, basically, amajority of 90 MKs can decide to
(01:02:25):
kick out another MK.
I think, to begin with, theprocess of MKs deciding who or
isn't inside the Knesset isabsurd.
The voters need to decide whois inside and outside the
Knesset, and when it waslegislated, the opposition
(01:02:46):
adamantly voted against it.
I mean including Yair Lapid,who is now intending to vote in
favor of kicking out Ayman Oda.
At the time, I just covered itat the time and I remember at
the time that they were the onesthat were warning that this is
a dangerous process that willlead to persecution of
(01:03:10):
minorities and of Arab MKs.
Persecution of minorities and ofArab MKs, and one of the
reasons I'm also against it isbecause I think that you know,
today the Arab MKs are minorityand tomorrow I mean in my worst
nightmare I can envision asituation in which secular is a
minority or women are minorityin, and this can be used in
(01:03:34):
various ways.
That scare me very much andseeing again, this is basically
a gig by one of the Likudmembers who you know.
Ayman Oda is one of the mostpopular figures for Likud
members to lash out at, and thiswhole thing started, you know,
(01:03:59):
as a primary gig of one ofLikud's MKs.
And the fact that and it turnedinto, you know, a big coalition
celebration over Ayman Oda andthe fact that the opposition is
cooperating with this coalitionthat in any other instances they
are fighting against them juston this issue, I think is a
(01:04:23):
disgrace.
I do think, or at least thereis a lot of work behind the
scenes to make sure that theproposition does not pass in the
plenum, even if Lapid will votein favor, most or not, most or
(01:04:45):
a large portion of his partywill not arrive will just not
attend, and a large portion ofBenny Gantz's party is not going
to attend, and the Labour Partyis not going to attend.
So I think that, just like theprevious time by the way, that
the coalition tried to expel anMK was often perceived last year
(01:05:07):
also from Sadaj Tal they failedto achieve the number, the
required number of votes, whichis 90.
And they only had 86.
So I predict, or carefullypredict, that it's going to fall
in the same way, without youknow, being approved in the
plenum and then reaching court.
(01:05:29):
Another thing that should bementioned is that Aymanullah is
not even running in the nextelection so so the whole that's
the thing he's already.
Neri (01:05:37):
He's already resigned effectively, so the whole thing
is just about.
Tal (01:05:40):
You know, it really is just about, you know, making a show
and eventually, because thewhole process, by the way, it
was done in a verynon-professional way, they
didn't really gather all ofAymanuta's.
Really, you know history ofstatements.
If they wanted to, they couldhave found many more statements,
(01:06:03):
but they only brought in to thecommittee, you know that, one
tweet.
The law is very clear.
You need to have like a massamount of statements to prove
that an mk supported terror.
So, in any case, this is goingto be disqualified by the
supreme court.
But, um, the opposition is, Ithink, making sir or cooperating
(01:06:27):
with the arabin case to makesure that it doesn't reach that
point, that it's a clash withthe supreme court and that it
just doesn't pass the plenum.
Neri (01:06:36):
Okay.
So that's good news, but yet Ithink the core point still holds
the opposition is always scaredof its own shadow, scared of
being tarred as weak on whatever.
And in the next election andafter the next election, after
the next election, they may need, if not active arab support,
(01:06:57):
then tacit arab support to forma government.
Tal (01:07:02):
One of the keys, one of the main keys for the
anti-nithyanian block to win theelection is the voter turnout
in the Arab sector, and that isa key to winning, and I agree
that it's totallycounter-effective to that goal.
But there are some personalaspects to this Aymanullah has.
(01:07:26):
I mean, some of the people inthe opposition have personal
grudges towards Aymanullah.
So I just, you know, I justhope that it doesn't pass the
plan the next day.
Neri (01:07:39):
Yeah, let's hope.
On that.
Note, tal, thank you so much asalways for your time and your
analysis.
Tal (01:07:47):
My pleasure.
Neri (01:07:49):
You were very honest at the start, saying I don't know
which you never hear not onpodcasts, definitely not in
Israeli media.
But we appreciate the honestyand the authenticity and until
next time, hopefully we'll havewell, hopefully we'll have a
ceasefire in Gaza and hostagescoming home, and then we can
discuss what next Amen, amen,amen to that.
(01:08:12):
Bye, take care, talk to you soon.
Bye, okay.
Thanks again to Tal Shalev, asalways.
Also, a special thanks to ourproducer, jacob Gilliman, and to
all of you who support IsraelPolicy Forum's work.
Do consider making a donationto Israel Policy Forum to keep
being a credible source ofanalysis and ideas on issues
such as these that we all caredeeply about, including this
(01:08:35):
podcast.
And, most importantly, thankyou for listening.
Shalom and welcome to the Israel Policy Pod.
I'm Nery Zilber, a journalistbased in Tel Aviv and a policy
advisor to Israel Policy Forum,walla News.
Chief political correspondentand friend of the pod, tal
Shalev, is back with us todiscuss Netanyahu-Trump round
three, which happened this weekin Washington.
It's the third time PrimeMinister Netanyahu met withump
Round 3, which happened thisweek in Washington.
It's the third time PrimeMinister Netanyahu met with
(00:27):
President Trump in less than sixmonths since Trump's
inauguration in January, morethan any other world leader,
which seems significant.
Tal and I discussed exactly justhow significant or not this
meeting was in our conversation,especially coming after the
12-day war with Iran and justahead of what many people hope
(00:47):
will be a new Gaza ceasefire forhostage deal.
We also discussed what Bibi maybe thinking now in the wake of
his rather successful campaignagainst Iran, and we'll also get
into the current state of playin Israeli politics, both in the
coalition and God help us inthe opposition as well.
Just a reminder we're also nowa video podcast available on
(01:11):
YouTube so you can see us andnot just hear us, but we're also
, of course, still audio only.
As always, wherever you getyour podcasts, do subscribe and
leave a nice rating and commentif the mood strikes you.
All right Housekeeping over.
Let's get to Tal Shalev.
Tal (01:29):
Hi Tal, welcome back to the podcast Hi Nuri Happy.
Thank you for having me again.
Neri (01:36):
It's really our pleasure to remind you, tal, last time
you were on was in April, justahead of Pesach Passover and
just after the secondTrump-Netanyahu summit in
Washington.
So I wanted to have you on nowfor round three to break it all
down for us.
I think it's fair to say thatback in April the consensus was
(01:57):
that it wasn't a very successfultrip for Bibi Netanyahu to go
meet with Trump.
Trump back then announceddirect talks with Iran.
Seems a bit well, seems a bitfunny.
Now.
He also pressured Netanyahu onthings like Turkey and Syria,
etc.
But we're now after a war withIran and possibly just ahead of
(02:18):
a Gaza ceasefire.
So I guess the first questionto you, tal, and the question on
everyone's mind here and inmany other places what did you
make of the two meetings betweenthe two leaders yesterday, on
Tuesday, and then the nightbefore Monday for dinner?
What do you think in terms ofthe messaging, the optics or
lack thereof?
Tal (02:40):
I think it's too early to call.
I've been saying basically weneed to be, let's be patient.
I mean I know everyone is very.
You know these meetingsyesterday and even the meeting
before, they're not exactly thetraditional protocol meetings
we're used to seeing betweenpresidents and prime ministers,
(03:02):
even between us and Alan Frank.
You know you have thetraditional protocol in which
they have the oval and theymight have, you know, a press
conference later, but hereeverything is in a much more
familiar, like even family-like,manner.
I mean, the first meeting, thefirst meeting was dinner with
sarah and nathaniel.
(03:23):
There, um, and it was extremelyunusual, um.
Neri (03:30):
And the second, I mean I was gonna say unusual is is, to
put it loudly, they were sittingaround.
They were sitting around adinner table.
They let in only the americanjournalists and so they're
asking questions to both leaders.
Nathaniel has his back to thejournalist, so he's turning
around talking to the journalist, talking to trump.
Tal (03:49):
I mean, it's not traditional by any stretch no,
so um, and the meeting yesterdaywas without any press at all,
so um it it's.
It's definitely an interestingvisit, right, uh, like all
Netanyahu visits to the WhiteHouse usually are.
But if there's one thing thatI've learned from all of these
(04:09):
visits even in Trump one and histhird visit in Trump two is
that looks can be deceiving andsometimes there might be a
really grand presentation orfacade for the optics, but at
the end of the day, not much isleft of it.
Even if we go back to the firstmeeting between Trump and
(04:32):
Netanyahu in this term, in thesecond term, the February
meeting, where Trump basicallystarts dreaming about a Riviera
in Gaza and you know Trump'sdreams here of the right wing
dreams of transferring thePalestinians from Gaza I don't
know.
We're almost we're five monthslater and nothing has really
(04:54):
happened there besides, likehere in Israel, getting a lot of
hype about it, but in reality,not much has happened.
So one of the things I havelearned with these meetings is a
it's OK to take a pause and sayI don't know, I have no idea, I
don't really understand what'sgoing on there.
It's clear that something isgoing on, right, but there are
(05:15):
so many scenarios that I canmake up into that, going on,
spanning from Gaza to Iran toSyria to, just, you know,
netanyahu, giving Trumpnomination for a Nobel Prize and
just like being very nice tohim.
It's clear that Netanyahu, fromhis political point of view, he
(05:38):
, you know.
It could be that this is also afacade, that this is something
like this is just a show ofshowing a lot of pressure from
trump on netanyahu, or whateverit can be.
So many scenarios.
So I think we're just in themiddle of the visit um, and we
might even be seeing another uhmeeting um I.
(06:01):
I carefully dare to predict thatthere's a high chance that we
can find it, and I was stayingthere until Sunday or Saturday,
just like previous visits to DC,and suddenly a weekend in DC
will will appear on hisitinerary.
So, basically, I think it's tooearly to try and give signs to
this.
I think it's too early to tryand give science to this.
(06:24):
And another thing that I'velearned is that we are working
with, or we are covering, notworking with.
We're covering and trying toanalyze two leaders who thrive
on disinformation andmisinformation, not only as a
political strategy but, as welearned in this whole 12-day war
(06:47):
with Iran also in their geostrategy, so a geopolitical
strategy.
So I think it's very difficultto try and analyze and to
separate.
What is reality, what is thealternative reality they're both
trying now to create for theirsupporters, and where what
(07:09):
exactly is happening in realityand not in the visuals?
Neri (07:15):
so that's a very important point.
I think all of us, not just inthe business, but all of us
looking on at this relationshipbetween the two leaders and the
two countries, the US and Israel, need to be a bit more humble
after the Iran war Because, likeyou said, that was a purposeful
campaign of misdirection,misinformation.
It was deception to get theIranians off guard and it worked
(07:39):
because I, as listeners of thispodcast know, I got on a plane
to Greece the day before it allstarted.
Tal (07:48):
I got on a plane to the US the day before it started, so
yeah, yeah.
Neri (07:52):
So we all have to be a bit more humble.
And yes, if in April it seemedlike it was an unsuccessful
visit, there were tensions, thistime it seems like there's a
lot more warmth, a lot ofhugging.
Trump said you know, we have atremendously successful
relationship.
I mean, there was a lot ofwarmth there.
(08:13):
At one point I think youprobably saw it too at this
weird dinner table pressconference, non-press conference
Trump was asked about both thetwo state solution and his idea
for the Gaza Riviera and kickingout the Gazans, and he just
deferred to to BB.
He gave the.
He gave the answer to BB whichI don't think I've ever seen.
Tal (08:35):
Yeah, again, we've been hearing a lot.
Also, let's get back to likethe real issues on the table.
Besides the atmosphere, whichis clear, that why there's a
warm atmosphere right nowthey're both after a very
successful campaign politically,or at least in its first image,
(08:57):
in its first response.
It's a select, successfulcampaign and they both want to
project their victory.
That's the atmosphere.
But you know, on the table,basically, if we put aside iran,
because there's probably goingsome something going on between
them, the regards around, andthere's probably something going
on regarding syria, but we lookto, you know, where people's
(09:21):
lives are waiting to the hostagedeal and the war in Gaza,
ending the war in Gaza, then Ikeep getting a real sense of
deja vu to the February meeting,because in the February meeting
it was just after, you know,the January hostage deal and the
White House was briefing thatthey will want to discuss the
(09:43):
terms for ending the war withNetanyahu, and then Netanyahu
came up with all these terms.
He didn't come up, presentedhis terms, expelling all the
Hamas leadership anddemilitarization total
demilitarization.
and here we are five monthslater and the White House is
(10:04):
briefing exactly the same thing,and Net White House is briefing
exactly the same thing, andNetanyahu is briefing exactly
the same thing.
And we're not really movingforward in ending the war on
Gaza.
You know, if we think aboutthat first visit I remember I
was with Netanyahu there Then wewent to Washington expecting
President Trump to, you know,knock on the table and tell him
(10:24):
you know you got to end the warin Gaza.
That didn't, that didn't happen.
So I don't know.
Neri (10:31):
And no, it didn't happen.
And also Trump and hisadministration.
Let Netanyahu restart the warin March, exactly.
Tal (10:39):
On the other hand, you know , we still have the impression
and we know the very strongimpression.
And you know, we still have theimpression and we know the very
strong impression.
President Trump came back fromhis visit to the Gulf states and
we know that the Gulf stateswant to warn Gaza over.
So it really, I think, dependson how much President Trump is
going to let Netanyahu prolongthis war without you know,
(11:03):
because he does have the powerand ability to stop the war if
he wants to, just the way he did, you know, after 12 days with
iran, um, he has the capabilityand the ability to do so he does
.
Neri (11:19):
but it's, like you said, deja vu with regard to earlier
this year, where the consensushere for weeks was that, oh well
, trump will end the war, trumpwill force Netanyahu to end the
war.
That wasn't true back then.
Tal (11:36):
And I'm still not convinced it's true.
Now, and you know, the wholegeopolitical establishment that
is dealing with this issuecontinues to abide by the
formula that is designed forNetanyahu's political needs here
in Israel, which means that youwill have a phased deal instead
of one ceasefire permanentceasefire, ending the war in
(11:59):
exchange for all of the hostages.
So we're continuing to splitthe ceasefire into a
never-ending ceasefire andhostage deal so that Netanyahu
won't need to end the war.
And just earlier this week,before he left well, as
(12:21):
Netanyahu was basically leavingfor the US the Defense
Ministry's live chat had abriefing with the military
reporters in which he presentedbefore well, as nathaniel was
basically leaving for the us,the defense ministry side talks
had a briefing with the militaryreporters in which he presented
israel's new goal, which is, uh, building a humanitarian uh
city near rafah um and movingall the palestinians there.
And it's exactly.
You know, and we're hearing somuch about you.
(12:42):
You know the Morag corridor,that is the.
You know, a year ago that wasPhiladelphia and a year and a
half ago that was Rafah.
So he just continued to findexcuses or you know, pegs, to
campaign on them, which arebasically conditions that make a
(13:03):
ceasefire almost impossible,because the Samaritans will
never accept these terms.
Neri (13:10):
Right.
So we also have to be a bithumble.
We're recording this, asmentioned, wednesday afternoon,
tel Aviv time.
So you know the mood musicyesterday from Steve Witkoff was
well.
We're hoping for a deal by thisweekend.
We'll see.
I think that's a bit optimistic, but you never know.
But my question to you, tal areyou optimistic that at least
(13:32):
this initial 60-day ceasefire,the first stage of a ceasefire,
will be attained, that we'll getthe terms between Israel and
Hamas and get at least half thehostages back?
I mean at least that let alone,you know, leaving aside end of
war negotiations and hopefullyculminations, but at least the
initial 60 day ceasefire.
Do you think that's possible?
Tal (13:55):
I'm not sure that's even possible, given Netanyahu's
insistence now on the Moragcorridor.
If he continues to insist, onthe.
Morag corridor?
I'm not sure it's possible, uh,but I will try.
I am still trying to remainoptimist, even if it's not
necessarily uh realistic.
To remain uh optimist because Ithink you know we are at a
(14:19):
moment at at large, regardingthis deal, regarding the war in
d, regarding the Middle East,that you know there is an
opportunity to design, you know,to rise from the ashes of this
war and really design a betterenvironment and a better, you
know, regional, a betterregional security system or
(14:45):
architecture, and I think thatyou know, of all people,
probably President Trump is theone who may be able to do it so,
and I do think that he's theonly person who can end the war
on Gaza.
So it's better to be optimisticthan be pessimistic at this
(15:06):
moment, even if it doesn'treally it doesn't, it's not
really compatible with reality.
But someone mentioned, by theway, someone mentioned a quote
by Simon Peres.
It's not an exact quote, butsomething about you can be an
optimist and you can be apessimist, and the end you die.
It just determines how mucheveryone dies, it just
(15:27):
determines how much you sufferon the way till you die.
So it's better to be optimistic.
Neri (15:35):
It's definitely better to be optimistic, but also
realistic.
I'm curious why are you morepessimistic than many other
people here and other peoplethat I've spoken to who think
that a 60 day ceasefire is isattainable?
You know, again, they need tonegotiate the final details,
including about the morgue court.
Tal (15:54):
It's attainable, it's attainable, as President Trump
tells Netanyahu let's get itover with.
But and we need to.
I mean, I mean, probably Hamasalso needs to be pushed a bit
more.
But I can also see a scenarioin which these conditions blow
it up.
I mean, at the end of the day,you know, and this has been true
(16:19):
since January 2024.
Hamas wants to end the war,netanyahu doesn't wants to end
the war.
Netanyahu doesn't want to endthe war.
I mean, that's their maindemand and that's his main
condition.
And since January 2024, youknow, because of this
architecture and these, therehave been many phased deals that
(16:42):
have been designed.
But at the end of the day, inorder to end the war, you have
to have Netanyahu willing to endthe war, and with this
coalition he can't do that.
Neri (16:54):
Right, so we'll get into potentially end of war.
I mean, that's kind of two orthree steps from now in just a
second, trust me.
But let's let's play theoptimists for a second.
Let's say that Trump nudgesNetanyahu and Hamas towards a
deal.
They agree on 60 days.
Again, the details still needto be firmed up and they're, I
(17:16):
think, more in flux now thanthey were maybe a few days ago,
but hopefully there will be adeal.
Do you think if there's a 60day pause in the war and an IDF
withdrawal and all the otherthings Israel has to give to get
at least half the hostages back, that Netanyahu's coalition
can't survive?
Tal (17:36):
That's tough.
Neri (17:37):
And, by the way, tal OK, that's interesting because you
said the same thing back inJanuary when we had you on, and
you back then.
Then you don't remember this, Ido.
I also went back and checked.
You said smotrich will stay inthe coalition yeah in in january
, before before the deal, andthat wasn't a given, because he,
like smotrich, does issues alot of threats.
Smotrich stayed in thecoalition bengville left for two
(17:59):
months and then he came back.
What do you think will happen?
Tal (18:01):
so one of the reasons that Netanyahu is so adamant now on
the Morag corridor is forSmotrich not to leave the
coalition in a 60 day deal.
That's one of Smotrich'sconditions.
But I still think thatNetanyahu's coalition can
survive a 60-day hiatus in thewar and ceasefire and another
(18:27):
partial deal.
A because you know Smotrichdidn't leave the previous time,
so why should he leave now?
He still doesn't pass theelectoral threshold in most of
the polls, so he still is theonly one in the coalition I mean
he has the least interest inthe whole coalition to bring
down the government.
B Ben Gville already kind ofmade a fool out of himself in
(18:52):
the previous deal when he leftand then after two months rushed
back in.
He can't play that trick again.
So that's the second reason.
And the third reason is justthe timing, and this could also
be one of the reasons that wemight see a delay in the
timetable for such a deal.
(19:14):
So today we're on the 9th ofJuly, the Knesset dissolves for
its summer recess on the 27th ofJuly, but the last week is
literally nothing.
So basically there are two moreweeks left for the coalition to
(19:34):
survive and if Netanyahu stallsthis deal even a week, then
there's no even real practicalway to bring down the government
.
I said it'll be very, verydifficult procedurally, even if
there is a big, big, big falloutin the coalition and, by the
way, this applies also to what'shappening with the Haredim and
(19:58):
the draft crisis, which we'lltalk about later.
But just the timing is good forNetanyahu.
Netanyahu just needs to survivetwo more weeks in this Pneset
session and then he has threemonths of summer recess in which
the coalition is not likely tofall.
So it just seems like thetimetable.
(20:20):
So that's why I think Netanyahuis trying, or might be trying,
to push the deal as close to therecess as possible, in a way to
secure his coalition fromfalling apart, even from another
interim deal.
Neri (20:36):
Right, I think our friends Shira Afran and Michael Koplow,
on last week's episode got intothe whole timetable issue and
yeah, wouldn't be surprised ifit, if it took the negotiators
exactly two, two more weeks tonail down all the details and
then he can go for a 60-dayceasefire, uh, with a cleaner
and uh well, a cleaner, acleaner mind, cleaner conscience
(20:59):
, uh.
By the way, the knesset recessuh goes on until, I think,
mid-october, after the holidays,so it's a very, very long break
.
Also, another thing in terms ofjust timetable, not a minor
point the courts here in Israelalso go on summer break.
I think in the next week or twothey come back, I think, for a
(21:19):
short period in September, butthen obviously the holidays
interject.
So basically, netanyahu has tomake it for another two weeks
and you know he can go onvacation.
I mean he won't, but he could.
He could at least politicallyand legally, um, okay.
So very interesting.
With regard to the coalition,you don't think they have as
(21:41):
much leverage as they pretend.
You don't think bengal andsmall teacher, you know um going
to threaten and actuallyexecute, toppling the government
over this, uh, the ceasefiredeal, despite the fact you know
as well as I do that?
Elections are already in theair, early elections do you
think that's spin, speculation,unrealistic?
Tal (22:05):
Well, I think you know, even there wasn't like kind of
speculation or rumor or reportafter the Iran war was over that
Netanyahu was contemplating aspeed election.
A there's no such thing inIsrael as speed election.
I mean by law, it takes threemonths and it's very difficult
(22:25):
to make it shorter.
B as far as I know, netanyahuis not considering any speedy
elections at the moment.
A it's not as if the Iranattack, the Iran success, uh,
totally changed the polls andfrom his point of view, it had
minor impact.
(22:46):
It does.
It did have some impact, but itwas minor, uh, not dramatic
enough at the moment for him tofeel secure enough to go uh to
uh to an early election and seeit's already you.
The timetable for the nextelection is quite clear, without
like being a profit, but youknow the Knesset is going to
(23:13):
come back from its summer recessin October and the government
needs to pass another budget,the 2026 budget, by the 31st of
March to the latest Right.
So the assumption is that theywill not pass another budget
(23:33):
because the budgets include alot of tax raising and difficult
measures that will not bepopular if you're going to
elections anyway in October 2026.
So, to the latest, thegovernment will fall by the 31st
of March and it might beearlier, a bit earlier, but it's
not going to fall in October.
(23:54):
It's not going to fall.
There won't be elections inOctober.
The earliest timetable that youcan see elections right now,
and again without being aprophet, seems that January 2026
.
So the elections will besomewhere between January 2026
(24:17):
to October 2026.
We'll have elections.
Neri (24:25):
Still, it'll be one of the longest lasting governments
this country has had in the pastfew years, which is interesting
enough.
Well, it's interesting becausethey're the government of
October 7th Exactly, and evenbefore that.
Tal (24:34):
Yeah, they are one of the most, let's say, aggressive
governments, to the least thatthe country is at, but they
share a lot of interests, sotheir shared interests kind of
keep them together and I don'tsee, you know, there are slight
(24:54):
creeds in their shared interests, but not enough yet to bring
the government down.
Neri (25:01):
Right?
Well, we'll do a postmortemabout this government when
elections are called.
Believe me, um, that will be, uh, that will be a fun day and a
fun episode.
Uh, just to finish up this, uh,netanyahu and it's related to
trump, but it's mostly aboutnetanyahu.
You have, uh, a lot ofnetanyahu hours, as I say here.
(25:22):
Uh, you've been covering himfor years, you've met with him
countless times.
What do you think he actuallywants right now?
Coming out of the Iran war, the12-day campaign very successful
I mean leaving aside the kindof military achievements, but
just it's viewed in Israel asvery successful.
It's Netanyahu actuallyachieving his ultimate dream and
(25:47):
his life's mission to bomb Iranand its nuclear facilities.
And so coming out of it.
There's a lot of questions andspeculation.
Okay, now that he did that,what does he want to do?
I don't want to say with therest of his life, but with the
rest of this political term, andthere are obviously all kinds
(26:07):
of ideas between ending the gazawar, a deal with saudi for
normalization three deals.
Some people are a plea dealretirement um what do you think?
Tal (26:19):
so here is where I am.
I admit that I sometimes don'tknow, especially since, you know
, 2023 and this government wasestablished because, you know,
netanyahu always had his two biggoals, which was Iran, the
normalization of Saudi Arabia.
These are the things that hewrote in his autobiography that
(26:42):
he wants to leave as his legacy,and that is basically, you know
, been one of the school ofthoughts through which we
analyze Netanyahu over the pastfew years.
But when he established thisgovernment in January 2023,
(27:03):
after the 2022 elections, hebasically, you know, the
judicial overhaul and the veryright-wing partners that he
chose basically arecounter-effective to these two
goals.
A.
For the first nine months, thisgovernment, you know, waged a
war inside Israel, attacking thesame pilots that brought
(27:27):
Netanyahu his victory in Iranand, you know, waged this very
deep internal war, which onlymade Israel weaker, which is
against, you know, netanyahu'swhole philosophy of peace
through strength, wholephilosophy of peace through
strength.
So that is where I started toquestion, you know, what are
(27:49):
Netanyahu's real goals?
Because you have Netanyahu, youknow the statesman who has
these two goals of Iran andSaudi Arabia.
One of them, it seems like it'sbeen a huge success.
We don't know how it will go.
I mean it has been a hugesuccess.
(28:09):
We don't know how it will go.
I mean it has been a hugesuccess, military, but from the
point of view of the nuclearprogram it's still.
We still have to wait and see.
I mean, right, the operationwas a huge success from israel's
image and you know some of thedestruction and we have hit
major facilities and the overalloperation was war was very
successful.
Regarding this specific goal ofthe nuclear program, I think
(28:29):
it's too early for us to call ahistory.
We'll probably uh right if thisuh was the truth call, but
there's also nathaniel thepolitician and nathaniel who the
was indicted, and these nNetanyahu the politician always
wants to survive and that's thefirst and most important thing
for him.
(28:49):
And Netanyahu, who's indictedand is in court, also wants to
get out, doesn't want to go tojail.
So having all of these threedifferent Netanyahus together
makes me question what does hewant?
Because on the paper, he wantsSaudi Arabia and Iran.
But when you take the two otheraspects of his personality and
(29:12):
leadership the fact that he willdo anything to survive,
including building a coalitionwith the most radical elements
in the political arena, and hiswill to survive his trial.
That has changed.
You know, changes his calculusin a way that it somewhat
(29:34):
difficult to predict what hewants or understand what he
wants uh, hugely difficult to uhto analyze and predict.
Neri (29:43):
Uh.
Also, he may not have decidedeither, so that makes it even
harder to say with X certainty.
Tal (29:51):
He probably wants everything and he's just
throwing all the balls and seewhich one of them falls.
It's also one of his housetactics, right?
He plays on a lot of games andone of the games will turn out
his way.
Right?
He paints on a lot of games andone of the games will turn out
his way Right.
Neri (30:08):
He paints on a very, very wide canvas to his credit and
then he chooses usually at the Idon't want to say the last
minute, but usually after thelast minute which direction he's
going to take, it whichdirection he's going to take.
(30:28):
But it is curious.
You saw it during the Iran warand after the Iran war it was
almost a different Netanyahu.
He was out in public, like hisChurchill moment, going to
impact sites in Batyam andBeersheba.
He's back giving pressconferences.
He didn't give pressconferences for months.
Tal (30:40):
Yeah, it wasn't a real press conference.
It wasn't a real pressconference.
It was a press conference onvideo right, it was a Zoom press
conference.
Neri (30:49):
Yeah, but he also.
He was standing in front of thehospital of Soroka in Beersheba
answering questions fromjournalists.
Tal (30:55):
Well of course, because he wanted to claim his victory.
You know it was his chance tomake the rounds that he didn't
make after October 7th.
You know he disappeared afterOctober 7th.
He wasn't Completely Because hedidn't want the photos on
October 7th to serve in his nextcampaign or in his opponent's
next election campaign, but thephotos of Iran is exactly what
(31:20):
he wants.
Neri (31:21):
But late last week he did finally go to Nero's, the
kibbutz down on the Gaza borderthat was the worst hit.
A quarter of the population,the residents there were either
murdered or taken hostage.
So he waited a year and a half,over 600 days, did not go to
Niros, did not deign to go toNiros because of those images
(31:41):
that he felt so threatened by.
And yet end of last week hewent.
Why?
Well, first of all, Because hefelt more confident.
Tal (31:50):
Yeah, because he felt more confident because he has now,
you know, rebuilt his image asMr Security.
And it's important to know NeilO's today does not look the
same way it looked 640 days ago.
It's already, you know, in theprocess of rebuilding itself.
I mean, it's not that walkingin the you know paths of Nero's
(32:15):
it's still quite a shiveringexperience, you know haunting
experience.
But it's not where, a year andover a year and nine months
after the massacre and this is acommunity that, at the basis of
it, wants to, you know, reviveitself.
So that's the Niroz he arrivedat.
And he also arrives at Niroz ata moment before he goes to the
(32:39):
US to negotiate a hostage dealand to supposedly bring back
some of the Nilo's hostages home.
And in that respect, you know,no one in Nilo's had, you know,
the gut to tell him, or not.
No one, some of them, some, butyou know most of the people, of
(33:00):
the hostages families.
All they want to make sure isthat their son will come home
right now.
So it was, I think, a muchcalmer atmosphere than it was.
And I got to say, you know thefact that he went to Niroz after
630 days, I think it was, orwhen he was there 634, 630 days,
(33:26):
I think it was, or when he wasthere, 634.
It doesn't erase the fact thathe wasn't there for the 634 days
up until that.
I mean, it does, you know,start amending?
And he's, by the way, he's thefirst Israeli prime minister
ever in Israel's history to evercome to Neot, ever in Israel's
history to ever come to Neroz,because it's such a distant and
(33:47):
far away kibbutz that no Israeliprime minister ever had reason
to visit Neroz.
Neri (33:53):
Is that right?
Not any of the labor primeministers?
No, wow, okay.
Tal (33:59):
So again, I think you know it was personally.
For me, the visit to Nilo wasafter the massacre, was one of
the most defining, you know,moments of this war, and I also
was very critical of Netanyahunot going there for so long.
(34:22):
So I'm really happy that hewent there, but do I think that
people will forget in the OZthat he wasn't there for all
this time?
Not sure.
Neri (34:35):
No, I mean, these aren't exactly the coup voters anyway,
and, like you said, though, theyreceived him very respectfully
I don't want to say warmly, butit was very respectful.
Well, they're men, right?
Tal (34:49):
one of the things that we learned about these amazing
communities and the Gazaenvelope is that they really are
like people that you want togrow up and be like them, and
they're, you know.
Neri (35:01):
So they're just a group of men, so that's why they were
very polite to him yeah, uh, Imean, we've we've all seen it in
under the worst conditions andcontext possible due to october
7th, but, uh, it was uh onething that came out of octoberth
(35:22):
and this war is the reminderthat, yes, there are still
kibbutzim in Israel and yes,there are still kibbutznikim in
Israel, and it actually isamazing communities and amazing
people that still exist in areal way and also you know that
the people living in thesecommunities on the Gaza border
(35:44):
are, you know they're protectingus, you know.
Tal (35:50):
Anyway, they are very moving people.
They really are.
Neri (35:55):
They could have been your neighbors, Tal, if you had moved
down there.
Tal (35:59):
You never know, maybe they will be one day.
Neri (36:02):
Maybe they will be.
I know that's you wouldseriously consider it.
Mm-hmm, it will happen one day.
It will happen one day, maybethey will be.
Tal (36:05):
I know that's uh, you would seriously consider it will
happen one day.
It'll happen one day yeah, it'suh.
Neri (36:10):
I mean we've talked about it.
Uh, both on this podcast andprivately.
It's, it is.
It is a beautiful and amazingpart of uh, of this country.
Um, that was went through, youknow, a mini holocaust uh, on
that day.
Uh, yeah, awkward transition,but I'm going to transition
anyway.
Let's get into the great gameIsraeli domestic politics.
(36:32):
We'll start with the governingcoalition, then we'll switch to
the opposition.
In terms of the coalition,right now, the big issue before
the Iran attack was the crisisover drafting the ultra-Orthodox
, the Haredim, into the IDF,into the idf uh, and the big
(36:56):
crisis as we speak today, afterthe iran war uh, is the crisis
over drafting the haridim uhinto the idf, and the hardy
parties are back boycotting uhthe coalition and any
legislation that the coalitionwants to propose.
Uh, there was even an op-edthis morning.
I'm sure you saw it brilliantbig ashkenazi.
Tal (37:10):
It was brilliant.
I loved it, so let me.
I loved it so for our, for ourlisteners and viewers.
Neri (37:15):
Let me just explain so.
In one of the big um organs ofthe ashkenazi uh heresy
newspapers and it's a big thingbecause obviously they're less
online than um, than me and taland all of you so the newspapers
still carry a lot of weight,the hard copies.
Uh, there was an editorial thatcompared netanyahu to churchill
.
Tal (37:36):
Uh, and not in a good way well, it didn't really mention
what was brilliant about it andit wasn't even mentioned by his
name.
It was just like right, thestory of churchill it was.
And guess who loves churchill?
Who is the biggest admirer ofChurchill in Israel?
Netanyahu.
So it was a clear message toNetanyahu.
Neri (37:59):
And it wasn't that Churchill won World War II and
that he was a great leader.
It was how this great leader,the magic, expired and he wasn't
reelected right after the war.
And yes, netanyahu wasn'tmentioned by name, but the
message definitely came across.
Okay, we'll be right back afterthis brief message.
Speaker 3 (38:20):
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(38:41):
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Neri (39:16):
So given this editorial and given the behavior of the
Haredi parties in Knesset, areyou concerned for Netanyahu and
the future stability of thiscoalition?
Or are they flexing theirmuscles but really they're not
going to leave?
Tal (39:34):
So we went through the timetable right.
We have about 14 days for thiscoalition, that it needs to
survive and it's.
The Haredi are serious atNetanyahu, at Yulia Dostain, who
is the head of the DefenseCommittee in the Knesset, who's
(39:55):
supposed to be drafting the bill.
You know, de facto, and there'sdefinitely a lot of emotions
and noise in the air, but A justlike Benghazi, you know the
Haredim are already threateningto bring down the government two
(40:19):
weeks, three, four weeks ago,before the attack on Iran.
So they can't really use thatstick again, right, and they
also don't really have aninterest to bring down the
government as long as it seemslike the next government could
be established without them.
And, given theanti-ultra-Orthodox sentiment in
(40:42):
Israeli society right now, thatis like a real possibility that
there will be a governmentwithout the ultra-Orthodox
parties that will actuallylegislate a real draft bill,
because it's such a hot topic,you know, right now in Israel
and there are people who willmake it a hot topic in the next
(41:02):
elections as well.
So the atmosphere in theKnesset is not as of a real
crisis, but like everyoneunderstands that there's not
enough time right now, buteveryone has to play their game,
so the Haredi need to makethemselves sound angry and say
(41:23):
you know hates and stories aboutChurchill to Netanyahu, so that
everyone knows that they'reangry and they're threatening
Netanyahu, but nothing is reallyhappening.
That being said, two weeks is along time.
So when Netanyahu gets back fromWashington, you know the fact
that he went away in the midstof this crisis.
(41:44):
Also, you know if it was a realpolitical crisis, a real, real,
real political crisis, we knowNetanyahu has no to postpone or
delay flights, so we're just notin crisis mode.
We're just not in crisis moderight now, but there is it's
also.
It's kind of a deja vu, right?
I mean, basically, since thisgovernment was established,
(42:06):
every few months the paradingare angry that Netanyahu hasn't
promoted the draft exemptionbill yet, and every few months
they have to threaten withsomething and nothing happens.
At the end, everyone is justlike stalling time.
One of the things that doesdisturb the Haredim very much is
(42:27):
the fact that you're hearingvoices from the IDF preparing to
have a wide scale operation in.
Not if they're not, if theoperating don't, don't come to
to to the army.
(43:00):
So that is a big issue.
I mean, if we start to seeYeshiva boys arrested because
they didn't go to the army whenthey got the draft notice, and
that will bring down thecoalition immediately.
Neri (43:15):
But that hasn't happened yet right and it remains to be
seen how.
I mean how widespread the wellthe draft notices will go out,
but how widespread the actualenforcement of the draft notices
will go out, but how widespreadthe actual enforcement of those
draft notices will be.
I find it hard to believe thatthe IDF is going to send
(43:36):
military police into Bnei Brak,banging on doors and carting off
yeshiva boys.
Tal (43:42):
Yeah, I find it hard to believe.
Neri (43:44):
So again, but they're not going to raid Bnei Brak like
it's.
I don't want to compare it tosomething else, but I find it
very hard to believe.
Also, the Israel police underItamar Ben-Gvil I don't Will
they take part in that?
I doubt it.
So I'll believe it when I seeit.
(44:06):
But I think they're unhappywith Netanyahu because he did
promise them a whole bunch ofthings.
But I think they're unhappywith Netanyahu because he did
promise them a whole bunch ofthings and now what?
Two, two and a half years intothis government, it hasn't, they
haven't gotten anything.
Tal (44:16):
Yeah, but it's their fault, right?
I don't know.
I mean tough flesh.
I mean there's a long list ofpeople who believe Netanyahu's
promises and you knowcommitments and like there's a
whole graveyard of them.
You know of broken promises bynathaniel, so, um, they.
You know, if we go back to this, historically, this was the
(44:40):
core, um, one of the fourelements of the coalition
agreements that nathaniel madewith the already parties, that
he would legislate a bill thatwould regulate the fact that
they don't go to the army.
Um, but then came the judicialoverhaul, and that was more
important for him to promotewhen the government was
established, and you know, so onand so forth.
(45:01):
Here we are, two and a halfyears later here we are each
time he told them after thebudget, no, after the next
budget, after the next budget.
Neri (45:09):
So yeah, yeah, and, and now they're, uh, they're making
their voices heard, but, uh, interms of, uh, I say, a graveyard
of broken promises, a boulevardof broken dreams, uh, I mean,
the the experts in this are isthe opposition.
So we have to, we have to talkabout the opposition and bennyz
(45:30):
is the expert on it.
Tal (45:31):
We'll get to Benny.
Neri (45:34):
Gantz in just a second.
Benny Gantz is only the latestand greatest.
Tal (45:41):
I think of the current opposition, Benny Gantz is
probably the man who hasaccumulated the most broken
promises from Netanyahu.
Yeah, but that's because againwe chose to believe him to begin
with.
Neri (45:56):
Yeah, again, we'll get into Benny Gantz and the whole
issue surrounding him in just asecond.
But I'm old enough, and you'reold enough, to remember Shaul
Mofaz, the head of Kadima, whosepolitical career ended almost
overnight when he believedNetanyahu, by the way, over this
very issue drafting the Harediminto the army back in what was
(46:18):
it?
2012.
Ewood Barak also lost hispolitical support because he
went into government with BibiNetanyahu.
And on and on and on it goes.
Anyway, we're not here to lookback, we're here to look forward
, looking forward.
So the first opposition figure Iwanted to talk about, gadi
(46:40):
Aizenkot, the former IDF chiefof staff, who entered politics
and joined Benny Gantz'sNational Unity Party ahead of
the last election and last weeksplit with Benny Gantz at his
National Unity Party.
And also, gadi Aizenkot leftthe Knesset.
He resigned, but he is planningon coming back.
(47:00):
Just a question of in whatformation, formulation or
context.
So what do you think of GadiAizenkot's move and what do you
think the future holds for GaddiEisenkot, who is a very popular
politician here in Israel, Ihave to be said?
Tal (47:15):
Well, he's a very popular figure.
He's one of the most popularfigures in Israel, but I
wouldn't Gaddi.
Eisenkot is not yet apolitician, even though he has
been in politics for three years.
It's a very importantdistinction to make.
Yes, I'm not sure he will everbe a politician, and that's one
(47:36):
of the perhaps one of thereasons that he's so likable and
so popular, uh, as a person, um, but um, I think we need to
start this discussion a withbenny dance, because it should
be mentioned that DaddyEisenquist is Gantz's fifth
partner leaving him since heentered politics.
(47:57):
Benny Gantz entered politics in2019, late 2018.
He had Moshe Ya'alon not withhim anymore.
Then he had Yair Lapid not withhim anymore.
Then he had Gabi Eskenazi notwith him anymore, and now he had
he had Gabi, I think, what lefthim as well.
Neri (48:22):
He also he also you left, you left out of.
You left out a few people no no, the number.
Tal (48:27):
Speaking about, about the number, like the number two, the
people that are the number twopartners.
Neri (48:33):
These were partners.
Tal (48:34):
he built a partnership with lapid gabby eskenazi and, we'll
say, alone, and he built apartnership with viva sal and
daddy eisenfeld, and both ofthese partnerships collapsed.
And this is a man whose maincampaign is that he is a person
of agreements and partnerships,but but he can't even.
(48:54):
I mean, if we look at hisrecord, he has no ability of
maintaining partnerships in hisown household and in his own
party.
So, first of all, I think thatGadi Aydinput's leaving Benny
Gantz is crucial, or it might be, you know, the final block in
seeing what isot leaving BennyGantz is crucial, or it might be
, you know, the final block inseeing what is happening with
(49:15):
Benny Gantz.
He has had his ups and downs,but Gadi Aizenkot was Benny
Gantz's main political asset inthe previous campaign, in the
previous elections, and it'll bevery difficult for him to
reinvent himself right now.
We can get back to him later.
Now about Isingkort he basicallyneeds to decide what he wants
(49:36):
to do.
He basically he can go whereverhe wants.
He has an offer.
Well, it's not on the record,but it's clear that if he wanted
, yair Lapid would offer him thehead of his party.
(49:58):
Really, yeah, lapid has beenvague about it, but it's on the
table.
Lapid is not doing well in thepolls, yair Golan is like going
ahead of him inside his ownblock and he needs to find a way
to reinvent himself, and DaddyEisenkot is a way to reinvent
(50:22):
himself.
He also has an offer fromNaftali Bennett, but not to be
number one, to be number two.
And you also have Y yan golanfrom the left and his party
calling for some big unification, uh, of all of the parties.
And he needs to decide what hewhere he wants to go.
(50:44):
Does he want to be number one?
Does he want to be primeminister?
Does he want to?
Where does he want to take hispolitical rear from his
statements?
You know, gaddi Eisenkot is avery sincere and authentic
person, so you understand thathe wants to be part of the
leadership that replaces thisgovernment and replaces the
(51:04):
current leadership.
But he's not necessarily keenon being the leader.
And if he wants to be theleader, then that's what he
needs to decide.
And he will need to start, youknow, building a block, or
building at least an image, orcampaigning on that image.
He had what was consideredsomewhat, you know, weak debut.
(51:28):
He had a press conference lastweek.
I think it's a bit I kind ofdefer to most of my colleagues
on this that the acting code isnot Bibi Netanyahu.
He'll never be Bibi Netanyahu.
He doesn't know how to speakeloquently like Bibi Netanyahu.
He doesn't know how to campaignand do the optics and the
(51:52):
visuals and the gestures and the.
You know the whole show.
He doesn't give a show.
He's exactly the opposite.
He's a totally authentic person.
So even trying to judge him byNetanyahu's standards is just
wrong.
And one of the things here inIsrael is that you know we've
gotten used so much toNetanyahu's standards is just
wrong.
(52:12):
And one of the things here inIsrael is that you know we've
gotten used so much toNetanyahu's leadership style
that everything is compared tohim and everyone is like
everyone needs to be a mini-BB.
But perhaps I think thatperhaps that he includes
authenticity and you know thefact that Israelis believe him
and they like him could be areal serious, a really
(52:36):
significant asset if he, if andwhen he decides how he wants to
take his career from from hereon.
Neri (52:46):
Okay, so that's Kadia Azinkot TBD.
But he doesn't have to be BibiNetanyahu, but I think he does
have to be an effectivecommunicator and some kind of
politician to do the job.
Tal (52:59):
Listen, I don't think he's not a politician at all.
I mean he does.
You know he's been, heunderstands.
Up until now he was BennyGantz's number two so he didn't
need to play the moves.
Now he needs to start playingthe moves and, um, he needs to
decide, I think, if he wants toplay the moves and what moves.
(53:21):
Uh, he wants to play and heneeds to, you know, start
building himself.
Um, there's also kind of this um, you know he is in the danger
of getting wearied off with time, um, so he needs to find a way
to remain.
You know he is in the danger ofgetting weared off with time,
so he needs to find a way toremain.
You know he left the Knessetyou mentioned, so he needs to
find a way to remain relevant,even if he's not the Knesset.
(53:43):
So he has a lot of decisionsthat he needs to make if he
wants to become part of theleadership.
But you know, the main decisionis what is the vision that he
wants to present as his vision?
Is it a Naftali Bennett vision?
Is it closer to Naftali Bennett?
Is it closer to Yair Lapid?
I think that if he will joinYair Lapid, it will change the
(54:07):
way, the map, it could changethe way the map looks.
We're also in that stage aheadof the election in which
everyone is polling 25 differentscenarios each poll.
What happens if Gadi Azikot isnumber two and Avigdor Ivanovich
is number three?
It's a very exhausting stage inthe election.
It'll take a few months.
(54:28):
So it also depends, I think, onwhat constellation god the
eisenberg will believe he is themost significant in.
I mean, in what constellationhe can become most significant
and, you know, contribute tobringing down nathaniel and
replacing the government okay.
Neri (54:49):
Um, so our second uh figure already mentioned, uh,
benny gantz.
Uh, we touched on him a littlebit but, like, why has benny
gantz found it so difficult toget along with his political
partners?
Uh, and also, what does thefuture hold for him?
At the peak right of hispopularity, probably the first
(55:11):
year of the actual Gaza warafter October 7th, he was
leading in all the polls, high30s, sometimes close to 40.
Now he's at four seats, indanger, like Batella Smoltych,
of not even making it into thenext Knesset due to the
electoral threshold.
So what happened?
Tal (55:31):
So, first, of all it actually covering it and now
covering.
I always talk about covering itnow, but covering benny gantz
when he took like a, when hetakes like a glimpse from afar,
um, it's been quite a rollercoaster, right, because he for
three election campaigns he wasthe main contender to replace
nathanahu and then he was evensubstitute prime minister in
(55:56):
their first government.
And then he, from being themost promising politician in the
center-left after he joinedNetanyahu, he sinked down and
almost didn't pass the electoralthreshold.
And then he hardly.
Then he made himself.
He brought in Gadiadzic and hedidn't sound.
(56:17):
And suddenly he was amedium-sized party again.
And then in the midst of thewar, right in the beginning of
the war, he was the most popularpolitician again.
And suddenly again it was like,oh, he's the next prime
minister.
And here we are, a year andnine months later, and he again,
after Eisenkot leaving, he onceagain is close to the electoral
threshold in the polls andthere have been speculations
(56:40):
that well, it hasn't beenactually only speculation.
Ali Ederi, netanyahu's partnerin the coalition, the leader of
Chass even, was trying toconvince Netanyahu to bring
Benny Gantz back into thegovernment right now for the
third time in order to secure ahostage deal without Benzir and
(57:04):
Smotrich rattling the coalition.
But Netanyahu didn't even wantto hear about it.
So Gantz is now basically.
When eisencourt left, helaunched a new campaign, which
once again he's talking about awide agreement um government.
(57:25):
Uh, in the next, a wideconsensus government, the 70
consent, a consensus governmentof 70 people in the next
government, and this is likeprobably going to be his
campaign all the way.
But Benny Gantz will alwayshave now like the question mark
will he go with Bibi?
After he does it twice?
(57:45):
And in an election ecosystemand a political ecosystem in
which you know, at the end ofthe day, the main question in
every election is yes or no Bibi, that might become very
unpopular and you know his brandis already so weakened I mean,
it's such, the brand is just andhe's also not relevant.
(58:05):
So Gantz as well will have tomake decisions where he's going.
Someone in the anti-Netanyahubloc said to me I don't
understand why we continue tocount him as part of our bloc,
because I can definitely see asituation in which after the
(58:27):
next election, he joins thegovernment with Netanyahu and
Gantz's campaign, as opposed toprobably most of the other
parties in that bloc, is goingto be, that he's not going to
disqualify Netanyahu, becausethere's no point in
disqualifying Netanyahu afterhe's sat with him twice in the
(58:48):
past five years.
So there are.
Gantz is going to be, I think,you know, I don't know how he
can, you know, reinvent himselfafter you know, being so
battered from all of, from somany directions.
And if he doesn't reinventhimself, if he can't reinvent
(59:09):
himself, he will reach asituation in which he might, you
know, he could turn into thenext Merav Mikhaeli, because
he'll be very close to theelectoral threshold.
And then people will bepressuring him to either join
another party or drop out of therace because of the risk of,
(59:30):
you know, losing those votes ifhe doesn't pass the electoral
threshold.
Neri (59:36):
Yeah, for our listeners.
Merab Mikhaeli, obviously theformer head of the Labor Party
who, ahead of the November 22election, refused to join forces
with Meretz.
She said both would pass theelectoral threshold.
Meretz did not pass theelectoral threshold and it cost.
I don't know if it cost theinternet, but it could have been
(59:58):
a very different result ifMeretz had been caught.
Tal (01:00:01):
We know exactly that they wouldn't have won the election.
I mean, Netanyahu still wouldhave won, but he would have a 61
coalition and not a 64coalition.
And a 61-seat coalition is acoalition you can.
It's much easier to bring down.
A 61-seat coalition is acoalition you can.
It's much easier to bring downa 61-seat coalition than a
64-seat coalition right.
Neri (01:00:21):
um, the uh, final figure in the opposition I want to talk
about tal.
Uh, I'm an order, so I'm anorder.
Uh, he's the head of the Hadashfaction in the Knesset, which
is predominantly Arab-Israeliand most definitely communist.
It's usually part of the Arabbloc in the Knesset.
(01:00:41):
There's a move underway toactually impeach him and kick
him out of the Knesset After atweet he wrote in January
expressing happiness that bothIsraeli hostages and Palestinian
prisoners were being releasedas part of the then ceasefire
deal in Gaza back in January.
So people saw this tweet asequating the two Israeli
(01:01:02):
hostages and Palestinianprisoners, caused a big uproar,
and now they want to kick himout of the Knesset entirely
Truly an unprecedented move.
The big thing here is that theopposition MKs in the committee
that voted on this last week.
They voted in favor to impeachhim, and also opposition leader
(01:01:22):
Yaya Lapid said this pastweekend that he would vote in
favor of impeaching Ayman Odehwhen it came to the plenum the
full plenum next week On Mondayyeah.
So, yeah, I personally thinkthis is a disgrace, um, and, by
the way, just bad politics forthe opposition, because, uh,
(01:01:44):
they, they don't want all of thearab mks to be disqualified,
because that will tilt theentire political map in
netanyahu and the right wing'sfavor.
The opposition, as theopposition here does, thinks
about things maybe in very shortterm, short term terms.
But what do you think aboutthis whole saga?
Tal (01:02:04):
Well, first of all, I agree that it's a disgrace.
I think it's for differentreasons.
I think it's a disgrace becausethis whole procedure that is
used against Ayman Ulda is aprocedure that was legislated in
2016.
And it says that, basically, amajority of 90 MKs can decide to
(01:02:25):
kick out another MK.
I think, to begin with, theprocess of MKs deciding who or
isn't inside the Knesset isabsurd.
The voters need to decide whois inside and outside the
Knesset, and when it waslegislated, the opposition
(01:02:46):
adamantly voted against it.
I mean including Yair Lapid,who is now intending to vote in
favor of kicking out Ayman Oda.
At the time, I just covered itat the time and I remember at
the time that they were the onesthat were warning that this is
a dangerous process that willlead to persecution of
(01:03:10):
minorities and of Arab MKs.
Persecution of minorities and ofArab MKs, and one of the
reasons I'm also against it isbecause I think that you know,
today the Arab MKs are minorityand tomorrow I mean in my worst
nightmare I can envision asituation in which secular is a
minority or women are minorityin, and this can be used in
(01:03:34):
various ways.
That scare me very much andseeing again, this is basically
a gig by one of the Likudmembers who you know.
Ayman Oda is one of the mostpopular figures for Likud
members to lash out at, and thiswhole thing started, you know,
(01:03:59):
as a primary gig of one ofLikud's MKs.
And the fact that and it turnedinto, you know, a big coalition
celebration over Ayman Oda andthe fact that the opposition is
cooperating with this coalitionthat in any other instances they
are fighting against them juston this issue, I think is a
(01:04:23):
disgrace.
I do think, or at least thereis a lot of work behind the
scenes to make sure that theproposition does not pass in the
plenum, even if Lapid will votein favor, most or not, most or
(01:04:45):
a large portion of his partywill not arrive will just not
attend, and a large portion ofBenny Gantz's party is not going
to attend, and the Labour Partyis not going to attend.
So I think that, just like theprevious time by the way, that
the coalition tried to expel anMK was often perceived last year
(01:05:07):
also from Sadaj Tal they failedto achieve the number, the
required number of votes, whichis 90.
And they only had 86.
So I predict, or carefullypredict, that it's going to fall
in the same way, without youknow, being approved in the
plenum and then reaching court.
(01:05:29):
Another thing that should bementioned is that Aymanullah is
not even running in the nextelection so so the whole that's
the thing he's already.
Neri (01:05:37):
He's already resigned effectively, so the whole thing
is just about.
Tal (01:05:40):
You know, it really is just about, you know, making a show
and eventually, because thewhole process, by the way, it
was done in a verynon-professional way, they
didn't really gather all ofAymanuta's.
Really, you know history ofstatements.
If they wanted to, they couldhave found many more statements,
(01:06:03):
but they only brought in to thecommittee, you know that, one
tweet.
The law is very clear.
You need to have like a massamount of statements to prove
that an mk supported terror.
So, in any case, this is goingto be disqualified by the
supreme court.
But, um, the opposition is, Ithink, making sir or cooperating
(01:06:27):
with the arabin case to makesure that it doesn't reach that
point, that it's a clash withthe supreme court and that it
just doesn't pass the plenum.
Neri (01:06:36):
Okay.
So that's good news, but yet Ithink the core point still holds
the opposition is always scaredof its own shadow, scared of
being tarred as weak on whatever.
And in the next election andafter the next election, after
the next election, they may need, if not active arab support,
(01:06:57):
then tacit arab support to forma government.
Tal (01:07:02):
One of the keys, one of the main keys for the
anti-nithyanian block to win theelection is the voter turnout
in the Arab sector, and that isa key to winning, and I agree
that it's totallycounter-effective to that goal.
But there are some personalaspects to this Aymanullah has.
(01:07:26):
I mean, some of the people inthe opposition have personal
grudges towards Aymanullah.
So I just, you know, I justhope that it doesn't pass the
plan the next day.
Neri (01:07:39):
Yeah, let's hope.
On that.
Note, tal, thank you so much asalways for your time and your
analysis.
Tal (01:07:47):
My pleasure.
Neri (01:07:49):
You were very honest at the start, saying I don't know
which you never hear not onpodcasts, definitely not in
Israeli media.
But we appreciate the honestyand the authenticity and until
next time, hopefully we'll havewell, hopefully we'll have a
ceasefire in Gaza and hostagescoming home, and then we can
discuss what next Amen, amen,amen to that.
(01:08:12):
Bye, take care, talk to you soon.
Bye, okay.
Thanks again to Tal Shalev, asalways.
Also, a special thanks to ourproducer, jacob Gilliman, and to
all of you who support IsraelPolicy Forum's work.
Do consider making a donationto Israel Policy Forum to keep
being a credible source ofanalysis and ideas on issues
such as these that we all caredeeply about, including this
(01:08:35):
podcast.
And, most importantly, thankyou for listening.
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