April 30, 2025 • 45 mins
On this week’s episode, Israel Policy Forum Policy Advisor and Tel Aviv-based journalist Neri Zilber and Israel Policy Forum Director of Strategic Initiatives and IPF Atid Shanie Reichman discuss the resignation of Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar, the legal and political battle over Bar’s firing by Prime Minister Netanyahu, the prospects for a new hostage-ceasefire deal in Gaza, the growing concern over the humanitarian situation inside the strip, reflecting on Yom HaZikaron and Yom HaAtzmaut in the second year after October 7, and more.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Shanie Reichman (00:03):
Shalom and welcome to Israel Policy Pod.
I'm your host, Shanie Reichman,the Director of Strategic
Initiatives and IPF at IsraelPolicy Forum, and I'm joined
here by Neri Zilber, ajournalist based in Tel Aviv and
a policy advisor with IsraelPolicy Forum.
Neri Zilber (00:16):
Hi, Neri Hi Shanie, it's good to be back with you
Now in video for those who maysee this on video, but audio for
all our regular listeners.
Shanie Reichman (00:26):
We are recording Tuesday afternoon,
Israel time, as Yom HaZikaron,Israel's Memorial Day begins
very shortly I think in just anhour or two and, of course,
Israel's Independence Day, YomHaAtzmaut, which immediately
follows that.
We're going to discuss the moodin Israel right now, Shin Bet
Chief Ronan Barr announcing thathe will step down from his
position and swirling reportsaround a hostage ceasefire deal.
(00:48):
So we'll start with Ronan Bar.
We've spent a lot of timespeculating about a potential
for a constitutional crisisafter Netanyahu announced that
he was firing Shin Bet ChiefRonan Bar, and the Supreme Court
of Israel then moved to blockthat attempt.
Now there are two sides to thisfiring.
(01:11):
On the one hand, many in Israelagree that everyone who was
responsible during the October7th massacre, at sort of across
the political and securityestablishments, should at some
point step down, given theirsort of culpability.
On the other hand, netanyahuhimself has no plans to do so,
of course.
And then there's the addedcontext.
Of course not.
Who would do that?
Who would even consider such athing?
(01:31):
There's the added context ofBarr probably being fired more
for other reasons that perhapsyou will share with us.
All of that said, we've avoidedwhat would have been a very
confusing and detrimentalconstitutional crisis, which is
a power struggle between thepolitical echelon and the
judiciary.
So why did Ronan Bar ultimatelystep down, and is that going to
lead to others to follow suit?
And, of course, let us know thereal reason why he was fired.
Neri Zilber (01:53):
Okay, so a lot to unpack, but yes, this saga
surrounding Shin Bet Chief RonanBar and the Shin Bet obviously
is the vaunted domesticintelligence agency here in
Israel with vast powers usuallyoperates in the shadows, but not
in recent weeks and recentmonths, due to precisely the
reason you laid out Shani RonenBar late last month, was fired
(02:17):
by Netanyahu and his government,and that started a whole hubbub
maelstrom call it what you willsurrounding the legality of
whether Netanyahu himself andhis government could actually
fire Ronan Barr, the reasonsbehind the firing and also the
timing of the firing.
Now to start with the end, andthen we'll work backwards.
(02:37):
Literally 24 hours ago, we werelooking down the barrel at a
constitutional crisis here inIsrael, precisely due to the
fact that the Supreme Court tookup the question of whether this
was legal or not, and theyissued a temporary injunction a
few weeks ago, in early April,saying until we clarify this,
until we resolve this, youcannot actually remove Barr from
(02:59):
his position.
You can't appoint someone new.
Netanyahu and his governmentdid not like that and did not
like that one bit.
They tried to appoint someoneand then quickly reversed
themselves for other reasons,but we were looking at a
constitutional crisis ifNetanyahu had pressed the matter
.
So last night, monday night,ronan Barr gave a speech and
(03:20):
really I think this may havebeen one of his sole public
appearances.
I mean, really people didn'tknow until really last night
what his voice sounded like.
You know he had done, I think,press conferences maybe once or
twice before, but really thiswas very rare, especially.
Shanie Reichman (03:35):
I will admit I saw a picture of him was like I
don't even recognize that guy.
Neri Zilber (03:41):
A picture.
Yeah, you know.
Again, he became a lot morefamiliar to people here and
around the world due to thiscrisis surrounding his firing or
not.
So he gave a speech yesterdayat the memorial ceremony for the
fallen Shin Bet operativesahead of the general memorial
day, and that's where heannounced that, yes, on June
15th he would be stepping down.
(04:01):
And he made clear look, afterOctober 7th I ie, ronan Barr and
pretty much every othersecurity chief here responsible
for October 7th and the major,major failure we don't need to
belabor the point said yes, theywould all be going home early.
It was just a question of when,and obviously after October 7th
the whole war broke out.
So the timing wasn't justsemantics.
(04:23):
You can't replace those peoplein the middle of a multi-front
war.
So that was good news in thesense that, yes, we avoided the
constitutional crisis and we'llget to the bad news in a second.
It was definitely good news forthe Netanyahu government
because there's a date certainthat Barr is leaving and
literally I think two hours ago,the government issued a
decision to cancel its originaldecision to fire Ronan Barr.
(04:47):
So they essentially acceptedthe fact that Ronan Barr would
stay in place for another twomonths.
So that's the latest, soeffectively.
It remains to be seen the oneoutstanding issue.
Well, there's two outstandingissues, first one being whether
the Supreme Court will actuallyissue a decision on this case,
now that it's essentially becomemoot in terms of the legality
(05:07):
of firing Barr, or not, becauseBarr said he himself is going
home.
The second big issue is whoNetanyahu appoints to this very,
very important position.
Let's table that not minorpoint for a second.
So, moving backwards, netanyahufired Ronan Barr Bar
prematurely, some would say.
Others here would say thatRouran Bar should have gone home
(05:27):
quite early.
And it's interesting you saidwho else may be leaving.
There's no one else to leave.
Cheney, the former defenseminister, joao Galant, was fired
by Netanyahu last November.
Heltzia Levy, the former IDFchief of staff, was essentially
pushed out in early March,replaced by Yair Zamil.
A slew of other senior generalshave either left already or
(05:53):
very much resigned and are ontheir way out.
So the only one in a position ofpower on October 7th and
responsible for the abjectfailure on that morning still
standing is the prime ministerand, as we all know, he has not
only not taken responsibility,he hasn't even uttered the word
responsibility once he'sconsistently blocked the
(06:15):
formation of National Commissionof Inquiry to actually get to
the bottom of what happened andwho's really responsible in the
lead up to October 7th.
And he and his shall we sayallies, mouthpieces both inside
government and outsidegovernment, especially on social
media, have been running thiscampaign for months now, trying
(06:35):
to pin sole blame for October7th on the security chiefs.
It was essentially just amilitary issue, an operational
issue, and not a biggerstrategic issue.
Netanyahu was responsible forie Israel's policy vis-a-vis
Hamas and Hamas and Gaza forwell 16 years since Netanyahu
(06:55):
came back as prime minister.
So that's kind of by way ofcontext.
They fired Barr in late March.
Why?
There are various reasons.
The kind of precipitating cause, I'd argue, is this ongoing
investigation that the Shin Betis very much a part of having to
do with several close aides toNetanyahu and their alleged
(07:19):
let's say alleged work, paidwork on behalf of Qatar, as they
were working in the primeminister's office.
And again, we don't need to getinto the weeds of that issue.
I think a few weeks ago I dealtwith it with Tal Shalev.
We did our best to explain itto our listeners, but really the
thinking is you fire the ShinBet chief, you put in, shall we
(07:42):
say, a loyalist, a puppet, apatsy in that very important
position and maybe you can quashthe investigation or at least
slow it down.
So again, nenya Hu, even datingback to last year, there was
certain bad blood with Renan Bar, but really it kind of came to
the fore really over the pasttwo months Now.
(08:04):
Some of our listeners may beaware that this all became very
public once the Supreme Courtgot involved, because there were
appeals to the Supreme Courtsaying you know, netanyahu can't
legally fire Ronan Barr.
It's a conflict of interestbecause he's investigating
several of his aides.
Maybe Netanyahu knew, didn'tknow that remains to be seen and
also the process wasn't donecorrectly in terms of just due
(08:29):
process, and so it was beingappealed to the Supreme Court
and in the context of thisappeal, ronan Barr last week
issued a sworn affidavit to thecourt that was made public,
about two dozen pages.
I read it, I reported on it,then Yahoo on Sunday, this past
Sunday, issued his own rivalaffidavit, again signed by the
(08:49):
prime minister?
Shanie Reichman (08:49):
Is that common?
It's not common.
Is that standard procedure?
Neri Zilber (08:54):
I mean, it's a Supreme Court hearing, so these
things are done, but not by theprime minister of the country
and not by the top intelligencesecurity chief, right?
Yeah, that are essentially atloggerheads and it's all coming
out into the fore, and I'll giveyou the cliff notes version of
what Barr laid out.
And it's actually no laughingmatter.
(09:16):
Ronan Barr essentially saidnumber one Netanyahu demanded
personal loyalty to him in theevent of a constitutional crisis
back in 2023, vis-a-vis theSupreme Court and the other
judicial bodies.
So Netanyahu, according to Barr, demanded personal fealty.
Number one.
Number two Arun Bar claimedthat Netanyahu tried to get him
(09:38):
to delay or halt his ongoingcorruption trial on security
grounds late last year, ahead ofNetanyahu taking the stand, and
Barr didn't play ball in thatcase either.
And then, number three, he wasasked, according to Barr, to spy
on, monitor prominentanti-government activists and
protesters that were part of theanti-judicial overhaul movement
(10:02):
back in 2023.
And also, here again, barrrefused, and so that was Barr's
case against Netanyahu for whyhe was being pushed out again,
combined with the ongoinginvestigation.
Shanie Reichman (10:15):
Yeah.
Does any of this come as asurprise?
Was any of this kept out of themedia and is now being reported
on?
That's fully new information.
Or is it just being verifiedlike it was speculative before
now?
It's been verified by him.
Neri Zilber (10:27):
So the issue about Netanyahu's corruption trial had
been reported.
We had a sense of that latelast year.
I think I even wrote about itat the time.
The issue of monitoringanti-government protesters no,
we didn't know.
That's not a minor thing herein this democracy in the Middle
East.
And the issue of demandingpersonal loyalty in the event of
(10:49):
a constitutional crisis betweenthe branches of government from
your domestic spy chief that wedefinitely didn't know, and
that was really the top line ofthe affidavit, along with the
other bombshells that came outof it.
So that was kind of, in and ofitself, quite striking last week
, and then on Sunday, netanyahubasically said you know, ronan
(11:10):
Barr is a liar.
Here's why this never happened,although interestingly, he
didn't directly say that henever asked Ronan Barr for
personal loyalty in the event ofconstitutional crisis.
He just said Ronan Barr didn'tprovide any evidence in his
affidavit to that effect, which,again, in legal terms, is not
the same thing as saying itnever happened.
(11:30):
It's not a straight denial.
And so that's where we werebasically until yesterday, until
last night.
So Israeli democracy lives tofight.
Another day.
Ronan Bar is going home.
And I will say just final point,and I was asked this afternoon
by people, this kind of soapopera, the circus, the saga of
(11:53):
government firing Ronan Barr andthen him not willing to leave,
and then going to the SupremeCourt, and then the affidavits,
and on and on and on, and thenfinally the government canceling
a decision to fire Ronan Barrand essentially letting him stay
until June.
What was this all for?
If you're Ronan Barr and saythe people on Ronan Barr's side,
I'll say two things.
(12:14):
Number one I think Ronan Barrwanted to make sure that the
Qatargate investigation, ie theinvestigation into Netanyahu's
aides, wasn't derailed, wasn'tsquashed, and so he wanted more
time.
That's number one.
Number two, and probably moreimportantly, ronan Barr wanted
to make all this public.
Ronan Barr knew that he couldn'twait out Netanyahu in this
(12:37):
government.
He couldn't just stay in post,no matter what the Supreme Court
may or may not have decided.
There's going to be an electionhere, hopefully next year.
That's a long time from now,probably at least a year from
now.
And so Renan Bar knew hecouldn't just cling on and keep
this going, and so he wanted tomake all this public, as a alarm
(12:58):
to the general public, that hey, this is what Netanyahu was
asking of me as the head of ShinBet, and so whoever comes next
needs to be aware of that andthe public definitely needs to
be aware of that.
What Netanyahu may or may notask the Shin Bet to do on his
behalf, I think from his pointof view, ideally codify that in
a Supreme Court decision sayingthat the politicians, the prime
(13:20):
minister, need to stay out ofthe Shin Bet's methods and
operations.
You know, within limits,obviously they do work for the
prime minister, but it needs tobe professional, it needs to be
according to the rule of law.
It can't just be at the whim ofthe prime minister and the
government.
Shanie Reichman (13:36):
So we don't know who's going to replace
Ronan Bar just yet, but what arethe options?
Are there names being thrownaround?
What sort of figures are beingmentioned here?
Neri Zilber (13:46):
So the figures aren't quite public yet.
Some of them come from insidethe Shin Bet and so it's just an
initial.
They're not public.
We have to remember too anumber of weeks ago there was
this farce when Netanyahu,despite the Supreme Court ruling
, appointed a new Shin Bet chief, a former head of the Israeli
(14:07):
Navy, unrelated to the Shin Betor anything really, and he was
actually viewed by evenopposition leaders and people in
the space here as actually areasonable pick by Netanyahu.
That lasted for, I think, lessthan 24 hours, this appointment,
this nomination, untilNetanyahu, I guess, got wind of
(14:30):
the fact that this former headof the Navy protested on the
streets against the judicialoverhaul, and so as quickly as
this guy was nominated out ofthin air, he was removed from
the nomination just as quickly.
So the thinking here is that,okay, maybe Netanyahu won't go
full unreasonable and full,shall we say, orban Hungarian
(14:55):
leader and appoint a puppet orsome lackey to this very
important position.
That's just a hope at themoment, because, no matter what
the Supreme Court may or may notdecide, I think that has more
to do with removing a Shin Betchief from his position and kind
of involvement in the ShinBet's operations, less the
(15:17):
appointment.
So there are some names thathad floated beforehand, of
people deemed close to Netanyahu, who have the security
credentials, have the backgroundand he may appoint them, with
the hope, I think, on his endthat they will do what he wants
to do.
Again remains to be seen.
But there's a cautionary talehere, and that's what was done
to the Israel police.
Starting last summer, theyappointed a new police
(15:41):
commissioner, netanyahu, andNational Security Minister,
itamar Ben-Gvir, and this policecommissioner, let's say, has
not been the best in terms ofstanding up to political
meddling in the work of thepolice, and so the police itself
, according to many people here,has become more politicized
than it was beforehand, andthat's a threat to Israeli
(16:03):
democracy.
The shin bet is like the policehere on steroids, to use a very
worn out cliche.
The Shin Bet has vast, vastpowers to do many, many things
domestically here, and not justto counter terrorism as its main
mission.
Shanie Reichman (16:19):
So the fear is that Like spying on your
political opponents.
Neri Zilber (16:22):
Yeah, like spying on your political appointments,
like siding with the governmentin any constitutional crisis and
not the courts, ie the rule oflaw, things like that which,
again, barr very much raised thealarm about.
And so we have to see whoNetanyahu appoints as the next
Shin Bet chief.
That's going to be the nextshoe to drop in terms of this
kind of ongoing saga, one ofmany domestically, but it was
(16:44):
the biggest one, I dare say, inrecent weeks.
Shanie Reichman (16:47):
Moving beyond the internal Israeli affairs.
We try to stay really hopefulhere about prospects for a
ceasefire hostage deal, and thisis serious business.
But, as Neri knows, I love whenreality reflects the hallways
of a high school, which it sortof did this week, because there
were Israeli reports arisingthat Qatar is intentionally
(17:08):
sabotaging the prospects and thenegotiations by convincing
Hamas to take a harsher stance.
But then you had reports fromArab leaders perhaps Egypt, I'm
not sure if we know exactly whoit is you can tell us, Neri,
saying that Israel isintentionally creating those
reports because they're the oneswho want to sabotage the deal.
So what's really happening hereand how do we get everyone on
(17:31):
the same page?
Neri Zilber (17:33):
So my rule of thumb and I tell this to both friends
and acquaintances who ask me,as well as my editors don't
believe any of these reportsuntil we report it.
Not just us, but don't believeany of these.
It's almost on a daily basis,right?
You see, kind of the Arab pressreporting something which then
gets picked up in the Israelipress and maybe on social media.
(17:53):
There was even a report, Ibelieve, by Reuters yesterday
about progress and abreakthrough in the talks.
I discounted that report aswell.
So unfortunately I say thissadly you should discount all of
these reports at the momentbecause there really isn't that
much progress.
To speak of, the gaps betweenIsrael and Hamas on the core
(18:16):
issues, as we've been talkingabout on this podcast for what
nearly two months now, arereally really wide, and I think
I talked about this at length inthe intro to last week's pod.
Netanyahu himself, in his ownwords, said you know, I'm not
ending the war, and if Netanyahuisn't willing to quote unquote
(18:37):
end the war, it's very unlikelyHamas will agree to these kind
of short-term ceasefires andhostage releases in installments
.
It doesn't have that many livehostages left, and so the trick
quote unquote that was pulled onHamas in January, enter into a
ceasefire, stage one, and thenkind of start negotiations over
(19:01):
stage two with an eye to gettingall the hostages back, yes, and
also ending the war FromHamas's point of view.
We all know that Israel didn'tquite live up to that end of the
bargain in terms of continuinginto a stage two of the
ceasefire.
So I'm still quite skeptical,and we need to be skeptical,
(19:22):
about these various reports.
It doesn't do much good for thehostage families and their
loved ones and all those whocare about the hostages to kind
of keep churning up this falsehope.
There's a line that says kind ofillusionary action.
Right, there's always kind ofthe appearance of action,
mediators go here, mediators gothere but it's motion without
(19:45):
any real movement in terms ofthe core issues, at least not
yet.
And again, there are obviouslythings I don't know, but there
are things I do know for a fact,and so that's.
I think there are things I doknow for a fact, and so that's.
I think the state of play atthe moment, and in terms of
Qatar, yes, qatar, both inIsrael, also around the Middle
(20:05):
East and definitely in America,has become a polarizing issue, a
really polarizing issue, and Idon't think we need to kind of
debate Qatar yes or no, positiveor negative on this episode.
But in terms of the hostagenegotiations, I don't see any
interest in Qatar, qatar kind ofstalling or sabotaging the
talks.
I think Qatar itself would loveto be behind this issue, ie to
(20:31):
end the war and the hostage saga, to not be front and center in
every kind of public utterance,whether in Israel or in
Washington.
So I don't see any interest ontheir end to establish other
talks.
Are they applying as muchpressure as they could on Hamas?
Possibly, possibly not, but youdon't have to be a Qatari
(20:51):
leader or even an Egyptianleader, the other mediator, to
kind of go and tell Israel orthe US hey, give us something to
work with here.
We can't just go to Hamas anddemand Hamas sign its own death
warrant, ie release the hostagesin return for not ending the
(21:11):
war, essentially continuing thewar.
Hamas are many things, eventhat Niyahu said this.
Hamas aren't idiots.
They're vicious, brutalmurderers, but they're not
idiots.
I agree with the prime ministeron that one.
But they're also jihadists, andI think you and I have been
talking about this since Octoberof 2023.
They would rather die than giveup the hostages, and they would
(21:36):
rather, by the way, they wouldrather die and they'd rather
Gaza be burned to the groundbefore they give up the hostages
and quote unquote lay downtheir weapons and surrender.
I think that's been true sinceOctober of 2023.
And that's where we are rightnow.
Shanie Reichman (21:54):
I think they would give up the hostages for
that, but they would not laydown their arms and surrender,
and that's kind of the stickingpoint, right.
Yeah, I mean, look they For theIsraeli side.
Neri Zilber (22:03):
Yeah, I mean, look the Israeli side, and these
aren't unreasonable requests,right?
They want Hamas to give up thehostages, they want Hamas to lay
down their arms and they want,essentially, gaza not to be a
threat anymore to Israel.
I think that's all reasonable.
It's just a question of whetheryou can convince Hamas to do
(22:26):
that.
Again, we've been talking aboutthis for a year and a half.
Shani, their only insurancecard really are the hostages.
So A why would they give up thehostages if they don't have a
guarantee that it's going to atleast end the war for an
extended period of time?
These guys are committed,ideologically pure, if we can
(22:48):
use that word jihadists.
They do believe what theybelieve.
This may seem weird to you orme or many of our Western
listeners, but they're truebelievers, and so for them
laying down their arms?
No, again, they would ratherdie and they'd rather burn Gaza
to the ground than lay downtheir arms, let alone go into
(23:09):
exile, like some people here andin other places have floated.
I never really bought thateither, a la Yasser Arafat and
his PLO back in Beirut in 1982.
They're not the PLO, right?
They're Hamas.
So again-.
Shanie Reichman (23:27):
No, they're not .
Neri Zilber (23:28):
Right.
So again, israel has requests,and they're not unreasonable.
But are they realistic?
For now, not so much, and theonly answer we get from this
Israeli government is well, morepressure will force Hamas to
essentially concede its positionand really concede on those big
points.
Give up the hostages, disarmall that.
(23:49):
Best of luck to all of us.
More military pressure.
I could see Hamas very easilysaying okay, we're going to call
Israel's bluff, you can comeand try to retake and reconquer
the Gaza Strip and you're goingto be dealing with an insurgency
.
And again, there are peoplehere in Israel who say that
should be done, that should bethe strategy, that is a price
(24:12):
we're willing to pay.
I think the majority ofIsraelis would disagree with
that position.
I think the majority ofIsraelis would disagree with
that position.
I think the majority ofIsraelis, according to poll
after poll, would say no, youneed to prioritize the hostages.
As I said last week, thisgovernment has been very clear
the hostages are not their toppriority.
Okay, we'll be right back afterthis brief message.
Speaker 3 (24:33):
This week marks Yom Hazikaron, israel's Memorial Day
, and Yom Ha'atzmaut, israel'sIndependence Day.
The past 19 months have beenthe most painful period in the
contemporary history of thestate of Israel.
On this Yom Hazikaron, we pauseto remember the Israelis lost
to senseless terror and thesoldiers who gave their lives to
defend our people.
We continue to stand with thefamilies of the hostages in Gaza
(24:54):
in calling for an end to theirunbearable captivity.
The formidable challengesfacing the Jewish people today
are a constant reminder.
Stand with the families of thehostages in Gaza in calling for
an end to their unbearablecaptivity.
The formidable challenges facingthe Jewish people today are a
constant reminder of thenecessity of a secure Jewish and
democratic state of Israel.
On Yom Ha'atzmuth, we joinIsraelis and Jews around the
world in celebrating Israel'sindependence and recommit to
fighting for the futureenvisioned by Israel's founders.
The collective strength andresilience of the Jewish people
(25:16):
can never be taken for granted.
Israel Policy Forum's missionis to build support for a secure
, jewish, democratic Israelthrough a viable resolution to
the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
We do that by elevating thepublic discourse and advancing
pragmatic US policy towards theIsraeli-Palestinian conflict,
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(25:36):
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If you rely on Israel PolicyForum for credible, nuanced
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Please make a tax-deductiblegift today so that our work can
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Shanie Reichman (25:53):
Donate now at ipfli slash supportthepod or at
the Support the Show link in theshow notes.
So when we think aboutdifferent ways to pressure Hamas
, one that comes up and ishappening right now is cutting
off aid to the Gaza Strip.
We've been about we're abouttwo months into cutting of aid
since that last ceasefirehostage deal ended a few months
ago.
So Trump recently made somecomments, which I'm not sure if
(26:13):
they were surprising or not.
I'm not sure if they weresurprising or not, but regarding
aid and the need to allow moreaid back into the Gaza Strip, he
indicated that to Americanpress and also said that he had
spoken to Netanyahu about it.
So, first of all, is thestrategy working?
To begin with, is that strategyof cutting off aid seem to
actually be working to pressureHamas?
I don't see any movement there,and do you think it'll end
(26:35):
because of Trump's words thisweek?
Neri Zilber (26:44):
So I agree with you I don't see any real softening
of Hamas's position coming outof the collapse of the ceasefire
and really the end of the firststage of the ceasefire early
last March.
I don't see any softening andreally, as of last week, israel
has started taking casualtiesagain in the Gaza Strip,
tragically.
So four IDF soldiers werekilled over the course of last
(27:05):
week, at least 10 were injured,and this was an array of
ambushes, sniper fire,rocket-powered grenades, ieds I
mean the classic signs of aninsurgency.
And this was after several weeks.
After Israel restarted theground operation and moved back
into the various parts ofsouthern Gaza, northern Gaza and
(27:28):
then the northeastern part ofGaza, it seemed like Hamas kind
of retreated and wasn't engagingfully with the IDF.
That seems to have changed overthe past week, so I don't see a
softening of Hamas's position.
And again, the situation atsome point, and some point very
soon, will become quite direinside Gaza.
(27:49):
And again, we can discuss thiswith our friend and colleague,
shira Efron, who follows thehumanitarian issue in Gaza
closer than most.
We're only a few weeks awayfrom there being a major, major
crisis.
And then the question is okay,what does Israel do?
You're already hearing signsfrom inside the Israeli system
(28:10):
that, yes, we likely will needto restart humanitarian aid
deliveries into the Gaza Stripto avoid a real disaster.
Donald Trump said what he saidbe good to Gaza.
I think were his words.
Yeah, it was surprising comingfrom the man and the US
(28:30):
president who gave voice to hisRiviera of the Middle East plan
for the future of Gaza, whichessentially, to the best of
anyone's understanding, meantclearing Gaza out from Gazans
and then maybe you're maybe notletting them come back.
Shanie Reichman (28:49):
Yes, and I'm not sure he saw it that way.
I agree, but I'm not sure hesaw it that way.
I think he sees himself as ahumanitarian, which again is
confusing given a lot of hispolicies and rhetoric.
But I think that I think hesees himself as a humanitarian,
which again is confusing given alot of his policies and
rhetoric.
But I think that's how he seeshimself.
Neri Zilber (29:02):
Nobody thinks they're the baddie, right?
Nobody thinks they're the badguy in their own movie.
So I'm sure Donald Trumpbelieves that he's the good guy
and that he's trying to dowhat's best for the people of
the world.
Does it always come out thatway?
I think there's many Ukrainianswho would disagree, and not
(29:24):
just Ukrainians, obviously givenwhat's happening domestically
in America.
But that's not an issue forthis podcast.
It was a surprise Donald Trumptalked about that.
I think it was in response to ajournalist question about the
humanitarian situation in Gaza.
So the fact that Donald Trumpsaid something doesn't mean that
(29:45):
he will say the same thingtomorrow or the next day.
So we also have to kind of keepthat in mind in terms of taking
the US president's word asgospel.
But yes, I think that will havean impact on Israel if even the
Trump administration says, hey,you can't continue with zero
(30:06):
aid, literally zero aid foranother month, two months, three
months, and so on and so forth.
It remains to be seen whetherthe Trump administration holds
the line, like the Bidenadministration held the line on
the aid issue.
And then so the question forIsrael is okay, how do you go
about restarting aid supplies ina way that doesn't benefit
(30:28):
Hamas.
So Hamas, for much of this war,was essentially siphoning aid,
stealing aid and using it eitherfor its own purposes, its own
people, its own fighters, itsown fighters' families, or
selling it on the black marketto make money and to keep its
war machine, its terror machine,going.
And there are various ideashere in Israel about how that
(30:52):
could work, something I'mlooking into at the moment
because it's an important issue.
I'm still skeptical whetherthere is a way to circumvent
Hamas, whether through privatemilitary contractors, ie
mercenaries securing convoys.
Some people here in the farright, like Finance Minister
B'Tsele Samotrich and ItamarBenver, want the IDF to
(31:13):
distribute aid inside Gaza,which I think is a terrible idea
for a number of reasons, andone of those reasons is that the
IDF soldiers handing out aidwill become very easy targets
inside Gaza, and I think the IDFand IDF Chief of Staff Yael
Zamir understand that.
Understand that.
(31:41):
So again, no IDF, but no Hamas.
In terms of aid, maybe there'sa mechanism with partial IDF
cover, with private militarycontractors, combined with the
international community, the UNand other NGOs.
That's probably the best slashonly plan.
Will it work?
Maybe that's kind of the bestanyone can say.
Maybe it'll work, probablywon't work.
Shanie Reichman (32:02):
Well, this is the same question that comes up
for managing the Gaza Strip.
Governing the Gaza Strip, tobegin with?
Right?
If it's not Israel and notHamas, then who is it?
There's obviously a question onthe Palestinian Authority, but
if we had an answer to thisquestion of who should be
governing the Gaza Strip, ifIsrael had an answer to that
question, that would be theentity that would manage the aid
.
Right, a lot of these questionswould be answered in some way.
Neri Zilber (32:26):
It may not be answered 100%, but it would be
the beginning of a reasonableanswer, both in terms of the
reality on the ground and interms of the international
community.
But this goes back to the otherbig issue of this war and this
government's handling of thiswar is that there's no real
post-war planning to speak of.
They just don't want to addressit in terms of putting out a
(32:50):
realistic vision for what Gazawill be and how Gaza will be
governed the day after the warends.
Now.
Will this government ever endthis war?
That's a question for anothertime.
Hopefully we're not asking thatquestion 18 months from now,
shani, like we have been for thepast 18 months.
But yes, I mean we'll probablyget into it in a minute, but
(33:13):
it's been a year since lastyear's Memorial Day, yom
Ha'atzmaut, independence Day.
It's been 18 months, maybe morenow 19 months, nearly since
October 7th 2023.
If you had started puttingtogether, say, a real
Palestinian Authority securityforce for Gaza a year and a half
(33:36):
ago, their level of trainingwould be much better than not.
And again, some of that may behappening behind the scenes, but
maybe not at scale anddefinitely not with the buy-in
of this Israeli government, andthat's true for many other kind
of post-war plans for Gaza thatyou could have started
instituting months ago and yetnever happened.
(33:59):
This may be both a very goodtransition and very bad
transition to the current dayhere in Israel, but it struck me
one of the fallen Israelis ofthis past week.
He enlisted into the IDF formandatory service in December of
(34:20):
2023.
So two months after October 7thwas when he went into the army
and, tragically, he was killedin Gaza.
He was only 19.
So you're already seeing kindof the you know it's not even
the generation before October7th kind of serving and fighting
(34:41):
in this war and all thereservists that deployed for 200
, 300, 400 days over the pastyear and a half.
It's now the kids essentiallywho were still in high school or
just finished high school onOctober 7th and then they
enlisted and now they'refighting in Gaza.
Shanie Reichman (34:59):
Thinking about the mood in Israel today.
Of course, it's always a bitjarring how Israel has this day
of mourning that transitionsinto a day of celebration, with
Israel's Independence Dayimmediately succeeding it.
I want to start by sharingYarden Bibas's post.
He was, of course, in Hamascaptivity for a very long time,
(35:20):
and his wife Shiri, and two sons, kfir and Ariel, were both
killed in Hamas's hands onOctober 7th, so he posted a
picture that said there is noindependence while they are
still there, they of coursebeing the hostages who remain in
Gaza.
He went on to say that when hewas in captivity, he could not
have imagined that Israel andIsraelis would have been
(35:42):
celebrating Independence Daywhile he sits in a tunnel, and
that really resonated verydeeply with me.
On the other hand, we justcommemorated Yom HaShoah,
holocaust Remembrance Day, andwe know that Jews have gone
through many hardships and docontinue to be joyful and
celebrate regardless of whatcalamities are upon us, and in
some ways there is even a Jewishobligation to do so, especially
(36:03):
since, throughout history, jewsare notorious for experiencing
these types of hardships, and Icertainly share your sentiment.
But I guess I wonder, giventhat it is hard to imagine
celebrating right now, what isthe public mood?
Is it more towards this ideathat we cannot celebrate while
there are those in captivity, orare we leaning towards the idea
(36:24):
that we have to be happy andjoyful despite all of that?
Neri Zilber (36:29):
I'm not going to speak for the entire state of
Israel.
I will say it's both right.
There are many people here whowill not be celebrating this
year, just like many people didnot celebrate last year, when
October 7th was still quitefresh and quite raw and there
were many more hostages incaptivity.
(36:49):
And yet, even last year peopledid go out and they did have
barbecues, kind of onIndependence Day Eve and then on
Independence Day.
So it was already kind ofremoved enough, I would say,
from october 7th, and theongoing war, which definitely
was still ongoing last year, isthis year.
(37:09):
So it's mixed, uh, and it'skind of this, uh, this cognitive
dissonance, uh, that's alwayshere in israel, where people try
to kind of continue on withtheir daily life and find joy
and comfort where they can, nomatter what political or
military or security issue isswirling above their heads and
(37:31):
sometimes even down the road.
So that's very, very Israeli.
And, look, Memorial Day is avery somber day but then, like
it has been now for what?
77 years?
It's followed very quickly byIndependence Day Eve, which is
fireworks and parties andeveryone's out that night and
(37:53):
celebrating.
So it's always quite jarring,obviously more so since October
7th and the start of the war.
It is interesting, I can't quiteremember where I was or what I
did this time last year, duringMemorial Day and Independence
Day.
I mean, it's all kind of a blurthese days, but I do remember
there was a moment on MemorialDay Eve and we're recording this
(38:13):
on Memorial Day Eve this yearand you have this ceremony at
the Kotel at the Western Wall inJerusalem, as you do every year
, and all the security chiefsare there and there's kind of a
ceremony for the fallen, for thefallen and the representatives
(38:36):
of those who have fell not justsoldiers, by the way, but also
civilians killed in terrorattacks throughout the years.
And I think it was the firsttime since October 7th this kind
of public moment and obviouslya memorial event.
We had all the security chiefsresponsible for October 7th in
one place, essentially kind ofbowing their heads and asking
(38:56):
for forgiveness for what theydid.
And that was last year, andthis year all the security
chiefs are gone.
I mean, Ronan Barr will bethere, but he's on his way out,
and just that Yahoo is left tobring it back full circle.
And so that was what struck melast year.
Is that how awful this failurewas for these security
(39:20):
professionals who have spenttheir entire lives working to at
least their professional lives,their adult lives, working to
protect this country, and howthey must be feeling.
And then this year I don't knowif we're going to have that
same sense because it's adifferent IDF chief of staff,
it's a different IDF generalstaff, IDF chief of staff at the
(39:44):
different IDF general staff,new defense minister who was
brought in by Netanyahu latelast year.
So I don't know how it will gothis year.
My sense is that this yearthere's much greater
polarization.
There will be greaterpolarization Memorial Day and
also Independence Day.
The war itself, I think, hasbecome more political in terms
of continuing the war orstopping it to get a hostage
(40:08):
deal.
That was in the ether.
That was definitely a publicdebate issue last year as well,
but I think more so now after 18months.
And also, we have to rememberlast year obviously there was
the Gaza War, but there wasstill a war in the north.
(40:29):
There were still the Iranianthreats and the Houthis were
still firing missiles.
I mean, they're still firingmissiles, but it was a different
situation.
The war in the north is over.
I was in the north a couple ofweeks ago and it's remarkable,
this used to be a war zone innorthern Israel and now people
are going on hikes, KiryatShmona is full of people again,
Life returns to normal, as itquickly does here in Israel, and
(40:51):
even southern Israel hasrebuilt and people have moved
back, not to the communities inthe Kibbutzim definitely raised
and burned to the communitiesand the people would seem, you
know, definitely raised andburned to the ground, but in the
other places Hamas is adifferent Hamas than it was a
year ago, and so I think, onthat, that's kind of the
positive side of the ledger.
But, like I said, negativelyit's become much more political
(41:15):
whether you continue on withthis war and really it's a war
now in Gaza and it's going tolikely escalate and turn into
quite a difficult insurgency towhat the government says, quote
unquote destroy Hamas right,Finally destroy Hamas.
Or, on the other side of thedebate, to have priority given
to a deal to end the war inreturn for getting the 59
(41:39):
hostages back, including over 20who are still alive, and so I
think that'll be the fault linethis year and we'll be a lot
smarter on the other side ofMemorial Day and Independence
Day.
But yes, it's not just the kindof domestic internal fissure
(42:00):
that we've had here now forseveral years, let's say in
terms of Netanyahu and hisgovernment and the type of
people in the government versus,let's say, the more liberal
anti-Netanyahu forces insidethis country.
For the first time, there'sactually a debate over the
merits of the war, and that'snew, yeah.
Shanie Reichman (42:23):
We'll see where all this takes us.
I hope that you and all of ourlisteners have a meaningful and
maybe celebratory memorial andindependence day here in Israel.
Neri Zilber (42:35):
Thank you, shani, and it's interesting.
I mean, I didn't start off thepodcast by asking how were the,
how were the holidays, how wasPassover on your end?
but very rude but I hope it was,like you said, meaningful and
enjoyable, especially with your,your new addition, so maybe
expanded family Seder, but Iwill say here in Israel, so you
(42:59):
had Passover Pesach, like what,two weeks ago and now you have
this kind of weird long weekendwith Memorial Day and Penance
Day, so on the other side of itin May.
I think that will be kindanswers, but we'll likely see a
(43:21):
much clearer direction of travelon these various issues, both
domestically and in terms of theGaza war starting in May.
Shanie Reichman (43:28):
I love that in Israel, geopolitics and war talk
all go based on a holidayschedule.
We don't have such a thing here, as far as I know.
Like, oh, when Christmas breakis over, then it does not exist
uh I guess it does in congress,but not in a military sense it
does.
Neri Zilber (43:47):
It does in congress .
I think it's.
I think it's less an americanconcept, because I think us
americans we work all the time,uh, but definitely let's say in
europe, uh, you know, july,august is, is a no-go.
You have the quote-unquoteholidays in the winter that go
on forever, and so you knowthere's a reason why various
(44:07):
dictators start wars in Augustand December.
You know, if they want theattention of Washington and
quote, unquote the West to notbe fully engaged on the issue,
they do it in the depths ofsummer, yeah, when everyone's on
(44:28):
vacation.
Yeah, if Americans go onvacation.
Speaker 3 (44:32):
But yeah here, it's a real thing.
Neri Zilber (44:35):
Starting in an hour or two, everything will shut
down here in Tel Aviv and acrossthe country.
And then tomorrow people go towork, but you still have,
obviously, all the ceremonies,so it's not a proper workday.
And then you head intoIndependence Day Eve and
Independence Day proper, whichis a national holiday, combined
(44:57):
with the long weekend Shabbat.
So, yes, nothing will get doneuntil next week, given this
government.
I don't know whether that's agood thing or a bad thing, but
it just is.
We'll have to wait until nextweek.
Shanie Reichman (45:11):
Okay, I'll see you, nari.
Bye.
Neri Zilber (45:13):
Thanks, Shani Bye.
Thank you.
Shalom and welcome to Israel Policy Pod.
I'm your host, Shanie Reichman,the Director of Strategic
Initiatives and IPF at IsraelPolicy Forum, and I'm joined
here by Neri Zilber, ajournalist based in Tel Aviv and
a policy advisor with IsraelPolicy Forum.
Neri Zilber (00:16):
Hi, Neri Hi Shanie, it's good to be back with you
Now in video for those who maysee this on video, but audio for
all our regular listeners.
Shanie Reichman (00:26):
We are recording Tuesday afternoon,
Israel time, as Yom HaZikaron,Israel's Memorial Day begins
very shortly I think in just anhour or two and, of course,
Israel's Independence Day, YomHaAtzmaut, which immediately
follows that.
We're going to discuss the moodin Israel right now, Shin Bet
Chief Ronan Barr announcing thathe will step down from his
position and swirling reportsaround a hostage ceasefire deal.
(00:48):
So we'll start with Ronan Bar.
We've spent a lot of timespeculating about a potential
for a constitutional crisisafter Netanyahu announced that
he was firing Shin Bet ChiefRonan Bar, and the Supreme Court
of Israel then moved to blockthat attempt.
Now there are two sides to thisfiring.
(01:11):
On the one hand, many in Israelagree that everyone who was
responsible during the October7th massacre, at sort of across
the political and securityestablishments, should at some
point step down, given theirsort of culpability.
On the other hand, netanyahuhimself has no plans to do so,
of course.
And then there's the addedcontext.
Of course not.
Who would do that?
Who would even consider such athing?
(01:31):
There's the added context ofBarr probably being fired more
for other reasons that perhapsyou will share with us.
All of that said, we've avoidedwhat would have been a very
confusing and detrimentalconstitutional crisis, which is
a power struggle between thepolitical echelon and the
judiciary.
So why did Ronan Bar ultimatelystep down, and is that going to
lead to others to follow suit?
And, of course, let us know thereal reason why he was fired.
Neri Zilber (01:53):
Okay, so a lot to unpack, but yes, this saga
surrounding Shin Bet Chief RonanBar and the Shin Bet obviously
is the vaunted domesticintelligence agency here in
Israel with vast powers usuallyoperates in the shadows, but not
in recent weeks and recentmonths, due to precisely the
reason you laid out Shani RonenBar late last month, was fired
(02:17):
by Netanyahu and his government,and that started a whole hubbub
maelstrom call it what you willsurrounding the legality of
whether Netanyahu himself andhis government could actually
fire Ronan Barr, the reasonsbehind the firing and also the
timing of the firing.
Now to start with the end, andthen we'll work backwards.
(02:37):
Literally 24 hours ago, we werelooking down the barrel at a
constitutional crisis here inIsrael, precisely due to the
fact that the Supreme Court tookup the question of whether this
was legal or not, and theyissued a temporary injunction a
few weeks ago, in early April,saying until we clarify this,
until we resolve this, youcannot actually remove Barr from
(02:59):
his position.
You can't appoint someone new.
Netanyahu and his governmentdid not like that and did not
like that one bit.
They tried to appoint someoneand then quickly reversed
themselves for other reasons,but we were looking at a
constitutional crisis ifNetanyahu had pressed the matter
.
So last night, monday night,ronan Barr gave a speech and
(03:20):
really I think this may havebeen one of his sole public
appearances.
I mean, really people didn'tknow until really last night
what his voice sounded like.
You know he had done, I think,press conferences maybe once or
twice before, but really thiswas very rare, especially.
Shanie Reichman (03:35):
I will admit I saw a picture of him was like I
don't even recognize that guy.
Neri Zilber (03:41):
A picture.
Yeah, you know.
Again, he became a lot morefamiliar to people here and
around the world due to thiscrisis surrounding his firing or
not.
So he gave a speech yesterdayat the memorial ceremony for the
fallen Shin Bet operativesahead of the general memorial
day, and that's where heannounced that, yes, on June
15th he would be stepping down.
(04:01):
And he made clear look, afterOctober 7th I ie, ronan Barr and
pretty much every othersecurity chief here responsible
for October 7th and the major,major failure we don't need to
belabor the point said yes, theywould all be going home early.
It was just a question of when,and obviously after October 7th
the whole war broke out.
So the timing wasn't justsemantics.
(04:23):
You can't replace those peoplein the middle of a multi-front
war.
So that was good news in thesense that, yes, we avoided the
constitutional crisis and we'llget to the bad news in a second.
It was definitely good news forthe Netanyahu government
because there's a date certainthat Barr is leaving and
literally I think two hours ago,the government issued a
decision to cancel its originaldecision to fire Ronan Barr.
(04:47):
So they essentially acceptedthe fact that Ronan Barr would
stay in place for another twomonths.
So that's the latest, soeffectively.
It remains to be seen the oneoutstanding issue.
Well, there's two outstandingissues, first one being whether
the Supreme Court will actuallyissue a decision on this case,
now that it's essentially becomemoot in terms of the legality
(05:07):
of firing Barr, or not, becauseBarr said he himself is going
home.
The second big issue is whoNetanyahu appoints to this very,
very important position.
Let's table that not minorpoint for a second.
So, moving backwards, netanyahufired Ronan Barr Bar
prematurely, some would say.
Others here would say thatRouran Bar should have gone home
(05:27):
quite early.
And it's interesting you saidwho else may be leaving.
There's no one else to leave.
Cheney, the former defenseminister, joao Galant, was fired
by Netanyahu last November.
Heltzia Levy, the former IDFchief of staff, was essentially
pushed out in early March,replaced by Yair Zamil.
A slew of other senior generalshave either left already or
(05:53):
very much resigned and are ontheir way out.
So the only one in a position ofpower on October 7th and
responsible for the abjectfailure on that morning still
standing is the prime ministerand, as we all know, he has not
only not taken responsibility,he hasn't even uttered the word
responsibility once he'sconsistently blocked the
(06:15):
formation of National Commissionof Inquiry to actually get to
the bottom of what happened andwho's really responsible in the
lead up to October 7th.
And he and his shall we sayallies, mouthpieces both inside
government and outsidegovernment, especially on social
media, have been running thiscampaign for months now, trying
(06:35):
to pin sole blame for October7th on the security chiefs.
It was essentially just amilitary issue, an operational
issue, and not a biggerstrategic issue.
Netanyahu was responsible forie Israel's policy vis-a-vis
Hamas and Hamas and Gaza forwell 16 years since Netanyahu
(06:55):
came back as prime minister.
So that's kind of by way ofcontext.
They fired Barr in late March.
Why?
There are various reasons.
The kind of precipitating cause, I'd argue, is this ongoing
investigation that the Shin Betis very much a part of having to
do with several close aides toNetanyahu and their alleged
(07:19):
let's say alleged work, paidwork on behalf of Qatar, as they
were working in the primeminister's office.
And again, we don't need to getinto the weeds of that issue.
I think a few weeks ago I dealtwith it with Tal Shalev.
We did our best to explain itto our listeners, but really the
thinking is you fire the ShinBet chief, you put in, shall we
(07:42):
say, a loyalist, a puppet, apatsy in that very important
position and maybe you can quashthe investigation or at least
slow it down.
So again, nenya Hu, even datingback to last year, there was
certain bad blood with Renan Bar, but really it kind of came to
the fore really over the pasttwo months Now.
(08:04):
Some of our listeners may beaware that this all became very
public once the Supreme Courtgot involved, because there were
appeals to the Supreme Courtsaying you know, netanyahu can't
legally fire Ronan Barr.
It's a conflict of interestbecause he's investigating
several of his aides.
Maybe Netanyahu knew, didn'tknow that remains to be seen and
also the process wasn't donecorrectly in terms of just due
(08:29):
process, and so it was beingappealed to the Supreme Court
and in the context of thisappeal, ronan Barr last week
issued a sworn affidavit to thecourt that was made public,
about two dozen pages.
I read it, I reported on it,then Yahoo on Sunday, this past
Sunday, issued his own rivalaffidavit, again signed by the
(08:49):
prime minister?
Shanie Reichman (08:49):
Is that common?
It's not common.
Is that standard procedure?
Neri Zilber (08:54):
I mean, it's a Supreme Court hearing, so these
things are done, but not by theprime minister of the country
and not by the top intelligencesecurity chief, right?
Yeah, that are essentially atloggerheads and it's all coming
out into the fore, and I'll giveyou the cliff notes version of
what Barr laid out.
And it's actually no laughingmatter.
(09:16):
Ronan Barr essentially saidnumber one Netanyahu demanded
personal loyalty to him in theevent of a constitutional crisis
back in 2023, vis-a-vis theSupreme Court and the other
judicial bodies.
So Netanyahu, according to Barr, demanded personal fealty.
Number one.
Number two Arun Bar claimedthat Netanyahu tried to get him
(09:38):
to delay or halt his ongoingcorruption trial on security
grounds late last year, ahead ofNetanyahu taking the stand, and
Barr didn't play ball in thatcase either.
And then, number three, he wasasked, according to Barr, to spy
on, monitor prominentanti-government activists and
protesters that were part of theanti-judicial overhaul movement
(10:02):
back in 2023.
And also, here again, barrrefused, and so that was Barr's
case against Netanyahu for whyhe was being pushed out again,
combined with the ongoinginvestigation.
Shanie Reichman (10:15):
Yeah.
Does any of this come as asurprise?
Was any of this kept out of themedia and is now being reported
on?
That's fully new information.
Or is it just being verifiedlike it was speculative before
now?
It's been verified by him.
Neri Zilber (10:27):
So the issue about Netanyahu's corruption trial had
been reported.
We had a sense of that latelast year.
I think I even wrote about itat the time.
The issue of monitoringanti-government protesters no,
we didn't know.
That's not a minor thing herein this democracy in the Middle
East.
And the issue of demandingpersonal loyalty in the event of
(10:49):
a constitutional crisis betweenthe branches of government from
your domestic spy chief that wedefinitely didn't know, and
that was really the top line ofthe affidavit, along with the
other bombshells that came outof it.
So that was kind of, in and ofitself, quite striking last week
, and then on Sunday, netanyahubasically said you know, ronan
(11:10):
Barr is a liar.
Here's why this never happened,although interestingly, he
didn't directly say that henever asked Ronan Barr for
personal loyalty in the event ofconstitutional crisis.
He just said Ronan Barr didn'tprovide any evidence in his
affidavit to that effect, which,again, in legal terms, is not
the same thing as saying itnever happened.
(11:30):
It's not a straight denial.
And so that's where we werebasically until yesterday, until
last night.
So Israeli democracy lives tofight.
Another day.
Ronan Bar is going home.
And I will say just final point,and I was asked this afternoon
by people, this kind of soapopera, the circus, the saga of
(11:53):
government firing Ronan Barr andthen him not willing to leave,
and then going to the SupremeCourt, and then the affidavits,
and on and on and on, and thenfinally the government canceling
a decision to fire Ronan Barrand essentially letting him stay
until June.
What was this all for?
If you're Ronan Barr and saythe people on Ronan Barr's side,
I'll say two things.
(12:14):
Number one I think Ronan Barrwanted to make sure that the
Qatargate investigation, ie theinvestigation into Netanyahu's
aides, wasn't derailed, wasn'tsquashed, and so he wanted more
time.
That's number one.
Number two, and probably moreimportantly, ronan Barr wanted
to make all this public.
Ronan Barr knew that he couldn'twait out Netanyahu in this
(12:37):
government.
He couldn't just stay in post,no matter what the Supreme Court
may or may not have decided.
There's going to be an electionhere, hopefully next year.
That's a long time from now,probably at least a year from
now.
And so Renan Bar knew hecouldn't just cling on and keep
this going, and so he wanted tomake all this public, as a alarm
(12:58):
to the general public, that hey, this is what Netanyahu was
asking of me as the head of ShinBet, and so whoever comes next
needs to be aware of that andthe public definitely needs to
be aware of that.
What Netanyahu may or may notask the Shin Bet to do on his
behalf, I think from his pointof view, ideally codify that in
a Supreme Court decision sayingthat the politicians, the prime
(13:20):
minister, need to stay out ofthe Shin Bet's methods and
operations.
You know, within limits,obviously they do work for the
prime minister, but it needs tobe professional, it needs to be
according to the rule of law.
It can't just be at the whim ofthe prime minister and the
government.
Shanie Reichman (13:36):
So we don't know who's going to replace
Ronan Bar just yet, but what arethe options?
Are there names being thrownaround?
What sort of figures are beingmentioned here?
Neri Zilber (13:46):
So the figures aren't quite public yet.
Some of them come from insidethe Shin Bet and so it's just an
initial.
They're not public.
We have to remember too anumber of weeks ago there was
this farce when Netanyahu,despite the Supreme Court ruling
, appointed a new Shin Bet chief, a former head of the Israeli
(14:07):
Navy, unrelated to the Shin Betor anything really, and he was
actually viewed by evenopposition leaders and people in
the space here as actually areasonable pick by Netanyahu.
That lasted for, I think, lessthan 24 hours, this appointment,
this nomination, untilNetanyahu, I guess, got wind of
(14:30):
the fact that this former headof the Navy protested on the
streets against the judicialoverhaul, and so as quickly as
this guy was nominated out ofthin air, he was removed from
the nomination just as quickly.
So the thinking here is that,okay, maybe Netanyahu won't go
full unreasonable and full,shall we say, orban Hungarian
(14:55):
leader and appoint a puppet orsome lackey to this very
important position.
That's just a hope at themoment, because, no matter what
the Supreme Court may or may notdecide, I think that has more
to do with removing a Shin Betchief from his position and kind
of involvement in the ShinBet's operations, less the
(15:17):
appointment.
So there are some names thathad floated beforehand, of
people deemed close to Netanyahu, who have the security
credentials, have the backgroundand he may appoint them, with
the hope, I think, on his endthat they will do what he wants
to do.
Again remains to be seen.
But there's a cautionary talehere, and that's what was done
to the Israel police.
Starting last summer, theyappointed a new police
(15:41):
commissioner, netanyahu, andNational Security Minister,
itamar Ben-Gvir, and this policecommissioner, let's say, has
not been the best in terms ofstanding up to political
meddling in the work of thepolice, and so the police itself
, according to many people here,has become more politicized
than it was beforehand, andthat's a threat to Israeli
(16:03):
democracy.
The shin bet is like the policehere on steroids, to use a very
worn out cliche.
The Shin Bet has vast, vastpowers to do many, many things
domestically here, and not justto counter terrorism as its main
mission.
Shanie Reichman (16:19):
So the fear is that Like spying on your
political opponents.
Neri Zilber (16:22):
Yeah, like spying on your political appointments,
like siding with the governmentin any constitutional crisis and
not the courts, ie the rule oflaw, things like that which,
again, barr very much raised thealarm about.
And so we have to see whoNetanyahu appoints as the next
Shin Bet chief.
That's going to be the nextshoe to drop in terms of this
kind of ongoing saga, one ofmany domestically, but it was
(16:44):
the biggest one, I dare say, inrecent weeks.
Shanie Reichman (16:47):
Moving beyond the internal Israeli affairs.
We try to stay really hopefulhere about prospects for a
ceasefire hostage deal, and thisis serious business.
But, as Neri knows, I love whenreality reflects the hallways
of a high school, which it sortof did this week, because there
were Israeli reports arisingthat Qatar is intentionally
(17:08):
sabotaging the prospects and thenegotiations by convincing
Hamas to take a harsher stance.
But then you had reports fromArab leaders perhaps Egypt, I'm
not sure if we know exactly whoit is you can tell us, Neri,
saying that Israel isintentionally creating those
reports because they're the oneswho want to sabotage the deal.
So what's really happening hereand how do we get everyone on
(17:31):
the same page?
Neri Zilber (17:33):
So my rule of thumb and I tell this to both friends
and acquaintances who ask me,as well as my editors don't
believe any of these reportsuntil we report it.
Not just us, but don't believeany of these.
It's almost on a daily basis,right?
You see, kind of the Arab pressreporting something which then
gets picked up in the Israelipress and maybe on social media.
(17:53):
There was even a report, Ibelieve, by Reuters yesterday
about progress and abreakthrough in the talks.
I discounted that report aswell.
So unfortunately I say thissadly you should discount all of
these reports at the momentbecause there really isn't that
much progress.
To speak of, the gaps betweenIsrael and Hamas on the core
(18:16):
issues, as we've been talkingabout on this podcast for what
nearly two months now, arereally really wide, and I think
I talked about this at length inthe intro to last week's pod.
Netanyahu himself, in his ownwords, said you know, I'm not
ending the war, and if Netanyahuisn't willing to quote unquote
(18:37):
end the war, it's very unlikelyHamas will agree to these kind
of short-term ceasefires andhostage releases in installments
.
It doesn't have that many livehostages left, and so the trick
quote unquote that was pulled onHamas in January, enter into a
ceasefire, stage one, and thenkind of start negotiations over
(19:01):
stage two with an eye to gettingall the hostages back, yes, and
also ending the war FromHamas's point of view.
We all know that Israel didn'tquite live up to that end of the
bargain in terms of continuinginto a stage two of the
ceasefire.
So I'm still quite skeptical,and we need to be skeptical,
(19:22):
about these various reports.
It doesn't do much good for thehostage families and their
loved ones and all those whocare about the hostages to kind
of keep churning up this falsehope.
There's a line that says kind ofillusionary action.
Right, there's always kind ofthe appearance of action,
mediators go here, mediators gothere but it's motion without
(19:45):
any real movement in terms ofthe core issues, at least not
yet.
And again, there are obviouslythings I don't know, but there
are things I do know for a fact,and so that's.
I think there are things I doknow for a fact, and so that's.
I think the state of play atthe moment, and in terms of
Qatar, yes, qatar, both inIsrael, also around the Middle
(20:05):
East and definitely in America,has become a polarizing issue, a
really polarizing issue, and Idon't think we need to kind of
debate Qatar yes or no, positiveor negative on this episode.
But in terms of the hostagenegotiations, I don't see any
interest in Qatar, qatar kind ofstalling or sabotaging the
talks.
I think Qatar itself would loveto be behind this issue, ie to
(20:31):
end the war and the hostage saga, to not be front and center in
every kind of public utterance,whether in Israel or in
Washington.
So I don't see any interest ontheir end to establish other
talks.
Are they applying as muchpressure as they could on Hamas?
Possibly, possibly not, but youdon't have to be a Qatari
(20:51):
leader or even an Egyptianleader, the other mediator, to
kind of go and tell Israel orthe US hey, give us something to
work with here.
We can't just go to Hamas anddemand Hamas sign its own death
warrant, ie release the hostagesin return for not ending the
(21:11):
war, essentially continuing thewar.
Hamas are many things, eventhat Niyahu said this.
Hamas aren't idiots.
They're vicious, brutalmurderers, but they're not
idiots.
I agree with the prime ministeron that one.
But they're also jihadists, andI think you and I have been
talking about this since Octoberof 2023.
They would rather die than giveup the hostages, and they would
(21:36):
rather, by the way, they wouldrather die and they'd rather
Gaza be burned to the groundbefore they give up the hostages
and quote unquote lay downtheir weapons and surrender.
I think that's been true sinceOctober of 2023.
And that's where we are rightnow.
Shanie Reichman (21:54):
I think they would give up the hostages for
that, but they would not laydown their arms and surrender,
and that's kind of the stickingpoint, right.
Yeah, I mean, look they For theIsraeli side.
Neri Zilber (22:03):
Yeah, I mean, look the Israeli side, and these
aren't unreasonable requests,right?
They want Hamas to give up thehostages, they want Hamas to lay
down their arms and they want,essentially, gaza not to be a
threat anymore to Israel.
I think that's all reasonable.
It's just a question of whetheryou can convince Hamas to do
(22:26):
that.
Again, we've been talking aboutthis for a year and a half.
Shani, their only insurancecard really are the hostages.
So A why would they give up thehostages if they don't have a
guarantee that it's going to atleast end the war for an
extended period of time?
These guys are committed,ideologically pure, if we can
(22:48):
use that word jihadists.
They do believe what theybelieve.
This may seem weird to you orme or many of our Western
listeners, but they're truebelievers, and so for them
laying down their arms?
No, again, they would ratherdie and they'd rather burn Gaza
to the ground than lay downtheir arms, let alone go into
(23:09):
exile, like some people here andin other places have floated.
I never really bought thateither, a la Yasser Arafat and
his PLO back in Beirut in 1982.
They're not the PLO, right?
They're Hamas.
So again-.
Shanie Reichman (23:27):
No, they're not .
Neri Zilber (23:28):
Right.
So again, israel has requests,and they're not unreasonable.
But are they realistic?
For now, not so much, and theonly answer we get from this
Israeli government is well, morepressure will force Hamas to
essentially concede its positionand really concede on those big
points.
Give up the hostages, disarmall that.
(23:49):
Best of luck to all of us.
More military pressure.
I could see Hamas very easilysaying okay, we're going to call
Israel's bluff, you can comeand try to retake and reconquer
the Gaza Strip and you're goingto be dealing with an insurgency
.
And again, there are peoplehere in Israel who say that
should be done, that should bethe strategy, that is a price
(24:12):
we're willing to pay.
I think the majority ofIsraelis would disagree with
that position.
I think the majority ofIsraelis would disagree with
that position.
I think the majority ofIsraelis, according to poll
after poll, would say no, youneed to prioritize the hostages.
As I said last week, thisgovernment has been very clear
the hostages are not their toppriority.
Okay, we'll be right back afterthis brief message.
Speaker 3 (24:33):
This week marks Yom Hazikaron, israel's Memorial Day
, and Yom Ha'atzmaut, israel'sIndependence Day.
The past 19 months have beenthe most painful period in the
contemporary history of thestate of Israel.
On this Yom Hazikaron, we pauseto remember the Israelis lost
to senseless terror and thesoldiers who gave their lives to
defend our people.
We continue to stand with thefamilies of the hostages in Gaza
(24:54):
in calling for an end to theirunbearable captivity.
The formidable challengesfacing the Jewish people today
are a constant reminder.
Stand with the families of thehostages in Gaza in calling for
an end to their unbearablecaptivity.
The formidable challenges facingthe Jewish people today are a
constant reminder of thenecessity of a secure Jewish and
democratic state of Israel.
On Yom Ha'atzmuth, we joinIsraelis and Jews around the
world in celebrating Israel'sindependence and recommit to
fighting for the futureenvisioned by Israel's founders.
The collective strength andresilience of the Jewish people
(25:16):
can never be taken for granted.
Israel Policy Forum's missionis to build support for a secure
, jewish, democratic Israelthrough a viable resolution to
the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
We do that by elevating thepublic discourse and advancing
pragmatic US policy towards theIsraeli-Palestinian conflict,
us-israel relations and regionaldiplomacy among policymakers
(25:36):
and community leaders.
If you rely on Israel PolicyForum for credible, nuanced
analysis.
Please make a tax-deductiblegift today so that our work can
continue to have an impact.
Shanie Reichman (25:53):
Donate now at ipfli slash supportthepod or at
the Support the Show link in theshow notes.
So when we think aboutdifferent ways to pressure Hamas
, one that comes up and ishappening right now is cutting
off aid to the Gaza Strip.
We've been about we're abouttwo months into cutting of aid
since that last ceasefirehostage deal ended a few months
ago.
So Trump recently made somecomments, which I'm not sure if
(26:13):
they were surprising or not.
I'm not sure if they weresurprising or not, but regarding
aid and the need to allow moreaid back into the Gaza Strip, he
indicated that to Americanpress and also said that he had
spoken to Netanyahu about it.
So, first of all, is thestrategy working?
To begin with, is that strategyof cutting off aid seem to
actually be working to pressureHamas?
I don't see any movement there,and do you think it'll end
(26:35):
because of Trump's words thisweek?
Neri Zilber (26:44):
So I agree with you I don't see any real softening
of Hamas's position coming outof the collapse of the ceasefire
and really the end of the firststage of the ceasefire early
last March.
I don't see any softening andreally, as of last week, israel
has started taking casualtiesagain in the Gaza Strip,
tragically.
So four IDF soldiers werekilled over the course of last
(27:05):
week, at least 10 were injured,and this was an array of
ambushes, sniper fire,rocket-powered grenades, ieds I
mean the classic signs of aninsurgency.
And this was after several weeks.
After Israel restarted theground operation and moved back
into the various parts ofsouthern Gaza, northern Gaza and
(27:28):
then the northeastern part ofGaza, it seemed like Hamas kind
of retreated and wasn't engagingfully with the IDF.
That seems to have changed overthe past week, so I don't see a
softening of Hamas's position.
And again, the situation atsome point, and some point very
soon, will become quite direinside Gaza.
(27:49):
And again, we can discuss thiswith our friend and colleague,
shira Efron, who follows thehumanitarian issue in Gaza
closer than most.
We're only a few weeks awayfrom there being a major, major
crisis.
And then the question is okay,what does Israel do?
You're already hearing signsfrom inside the Israeli system
(28:10):
that, yes, we likely will needto restart humanitarian aid
deliveries into the Gaza Stripto avoid a real disaster.
Donald Trump said what he saidbe good to Gaza.
I think were his words.
Yeah, it was surprising comingfrom the man and the US
(28:30):
president who gave voice to hisRiviera of the Middle East plan
for the future of Gaza, whichessentially, to the best of
anyone's understanding, meantclearing Gaza out from Gazans
and then maybe you're maybe notletting them come back.
Shanie Reichman (28:49):
Yes, and I'm not sure he saw it that way.
I agree, but I'm not sure hesaw it that way.
I think he sees himself as ahumanitarian, which again is
confusing given a lot of hispolicies and rhetoric.
But I think that I think hesees himself as a humanitarian,
which again is confusing given alot of his policies and
rhetoric.
But I think that's how he seeshimself.
Neri Zilber (29:02):
Nobody thinks they're the baddie, right?
Nobody thinks they're the badguy in their own movie.
So I'm sure Donald Trumpbelieves that he's the good guy
and that he's trying to dowhat's best for the people of
the world.
Does it always come out thatway?
I think there's many Ukrainianswho would disagree, and not
(29:24):
just Ukrainians, obviously givenwhat's happening domestically
in America.
But that's not an issue forthis podcast.
It was a surprise Donald Trumptalked about that.
I think it was in response to ajournalist question about the
humanitarian situation in Gaza.
So the fact that Donald Trumpsaid something doesn't mean that
(29:45):
he will say the same thingtomorrow or the next day.
So we also have to kind of keepthat in mind in terms of taking
the US president's word asgospel.
But yes, I think that will havean impact on Israel if even the
Trump administration says, hey,you can't continue with zero
(30:06):
aid, literally zero aid foranother month, two months, three
months, and so on and so forth.
It remains to be seen whetherthe Trump administration holds
the line, like the Bidenadministration held the line on
the aid issue.
And then so the question forIsrael is okay, how do you go
about restarting aid supplies ina way that doesn't benefit
(30:28):
Hamas.
So Hamas, for much of this war,was essentially siphoning aid,
stealing aid and using it eitherfor its own purposes, its own
people, its own fighters, itsown fighters' families, or
selling it on the black marketto make money and to keep its
war machine, its terror machine,going.
And there are various ideashere in Israel about how that
(30:52):
could work, something I'mlooking into at the moment
because it's an important issue.
I'm still skeptical whetherthere is a way to circumvent
Hamas, whether through privatemilitary contractors, ie
mercenaries securing convoys.
Some people here in the farright, like Finance Minister
B'Tsele Samotrich and ItamarBenver, want the IDF to
(31:13):
distribute aid inside Gaza,which I think is a terrible idea
for a number of reasons, andone of those reasons is that the
IDF soldiers handing out aidwill become very easy targets
inside Gaza, and I think the IDFand IDF Chief of Staff Yael
Zamir understand that.
Understand that.
(31:41):
So again, no IDF, but no Hamas.
In terms of aid, maybe there'sa mechanism with partial IDF
cover, with private militarycontractors, combined with the
international community, the UNand other NGOs.
That's probably the best slashonly plan.
Will it work?
Maybe that's kind of the bestanyone can say.
Maybe it'll work, probablywon't work.
Shanie Reichman (32:02):
Well, this is the same question that comes up
for managing the Gaza Strip.
Governing the Gaza Strip, tobegin with?
Right?
If it's not Israel and notHamas, then who is it?
There's obviously a question onthe Palestinian Authority, but
if we had an answer to thisquestion of who should be
governing the Gaza Strip, ifIsrael had an answer to that
question, that would be theentity that would manage the aid
.
Right, a lot of these questionswould be answered in some way.
Neri Zilber (32:26):
It may not be answered 100%, but it would be
the beginning of a reasonableanswer, both in terms of the
reality on the ground and interms of the international
community.
But this goes back to the otherbig issue of this war and this
government's handling of thiswar is that there's no real
post-war planning to speak of.
They just don't want to addressit in terms of putting out a
(32:50):
realistic vision for what Gazawill be and how Gaza will be
governed the day after the warends.
Now.
Will this government ever endthis war?
That's a question for anothertime.
Hopefully we're not asking thatquestion 18 months from now,
shani, like we have been for thepast 18 months.
But yes, I mean we'll probablyget into it in a minute, but
(33:13):
it's been a year since lastyear's Memorial Day, yom
Ha'atzmaut, independence Day.
It's been 18 months, maybe morenow 19 months, nearly since
October 7th 2023.
If you had started puttingtogether, say, a real
Palestinian Authority securityforce for Gaza a year and a half
(33:36):
ago, their level of trainingwould be much better than not.
And again, some of that may behappening behind the scenes, but
maybe not at scale anddefinitely not with the buy-in
of this Israeli government, andthat's true for many other kind
of post-war plans for Gaza thatyou could have started
instituting months ago and yetnever happened.
(33:59):
This may be both a very goodtransition and very bad
transition to the current dayhere in Israel, but it struck me
one of the fallen Israelis ofthis past week.
He enlisted into the IDF formandatory service in December of
(34:20):
2023.
So two months after October 7thwas when he went into the army
and, tragically, he was killedin Gaza.
He was only 19.
So you're already seeing kindof the you know it's not even
the generation before October7th kind of serving and fighting
(34:41):
in this war and all thereservists that deployed for 200
, 300, 400 days over the pastyear and a half.
It's now the kids essentiallywho were still in high school or
just finished high school onOctober 7th and then they
enlisted and now they'refighting in Gaza.
Shanie Reichman (34:59):
Thinking about the mood in Israel today.
Of course, it's always a bitjarring how Israel has this day
of mourning that transitionsinto a day of celebration, with
Israel's Independence Dayimmediately succeeding it.
I want to start by sharingYarden Bibas's post.
He was, of course, in Hamascaptivity for a very long time,
(35:20):
and his wife Shiri, and two sons, kfir and Ariel, were both
killed in Hamas's hands onOctober 7th, so he posted a
picture that said there is noindependence while they are
still there, they of coursebeing the hostages who remain in
Gaza.
He went on to say that when hewas in captivity, he could not
have imagined that Israel andIsraelis would have been
(35:42):
celebrating Independence Daywhile he sits in a tunnel, and
that really resonated verydeeply with me.
On the other hand, we justcommemorated Yom HaShoah,
holocaust Remembrance Day, andwe know that Jews have gone
through many hardships and docontinue to be joyful and
celebrate regardless of whatcalamities are upon us, and in
some ways there is even a Jewishobligation to do so, especially
(36:03):
since, throughout history, jewsare notorious for experiencing
these types of hardships, and Icertainly share your sentiment.
But I guess I wonder, giventhat it is hard to imagine
celebrating right now, what isthe public mood?
Is it more towards this ideathat we cannot celebrate while
there are those in captivity, orare we leaning towards the idea
(36:24):
that we have to be happy andjoyful despite all of that?
Neri Zilber (36:29):
I'm not going to speak for the entire state of
Israel.
I will say it's both right.
There are many people here whowill not be celebrating this
year, just like many people didnot celebrate last year, when
October 7th was still quitefresh and quite raw and there
were many more hostages incaptivity.
(36:49):
And yet, even last year peopledid go out and they did have
barbecues, kind of onIndependence Day Eve and then on
Independence Day.
So it was already kind ofremoved enough, I would say,
from october 7th, and theongoing war, which definitely
was still ongoing last year, isthis year.
(37:09):
So it's mixed, uh, and it'skind of this, uh, this cognitive
dissonance, uh, that's alwayshere in israel, where people try
to kind of continue on withtheir daily life and find joy
and comfort where they can, nomatter what political or
military or security issue isswirling above their heads and
(37:31):
sometimes even down the road.
So that's very, very Israeli.
And, look, Memorial Day is avery somber day but then, like
it has been now for what?
77 years?
It's followed very quickly byIndependence Day Eve, which is
fireworks and parties andeveryone's out that night and
(37:53):
celebrating.
So it's always quite jarring,obviously more so since October
7th and the start of the war.
It is interesting, I can't quiteremember where I was or what I
did this time last year, duringMemorial Day and Independence
Day.
I mean, it's all kind of a blurthese days, but I do remember
there was a moment on MemorialDay Eve and we're recording this
(38:13):
on Memorial Day Eve this yearand you have this ceremony at
the Kotel at the Western Wall inJerusalem, as you do every year
, and all the security chiefsare there and there's kind of a
ceremony for the fallen, for thefallen and the representatives
(38:36):
of those who have fell not justsoldiers, by the way, but also
civilians killed in terrorattacks throughout the years.
And I think it was the firsttime since October 7th this kind
of public moment and obviouslya memorial event.
We had all the security chiefsresponsible for October 7th in
one place, essentially kind ofbowing their heads and asking
(38:56):
for forgiveness for what theydid.
And that was last year, andthis year all the security
chiefs are gone.
I mean, Ronan Barr will bethere, but he's on his way out,
and just that Yahoo is left tobring it back full circle.
And so that was what struck melast year.
Is that how awful this failurewas for these security
(39:20):
professionals who have spenttheir entire lives working to at
least their professional lives,their adult lives, working to
protect this country, and howthey must be feeling.
And then this year I don't knowif we're going to have that
same sense because it's adifferent IDF chief of staff,
it's a different IDF generalstaff, IDF chief of staff at the
(39:44):
different IDF general staff,new defense minister who was
brought in by Netanyahu latelast year.
So I don't know how it will gothis year.
My sense is that this yearthere's much greater
polarization.
There will be greaterpolarization Memorial Day and
also Independence Day.
The war itself, I think, hasbecome more political in terms
of continuing the war orstopping it to get a hostage
(40:08):
deal.
That was in the ether.
That was definitely a publicdebate issue last year as well,
but I think more so now after 18months.
And also, we have to rememberlast year obviously there was
the Gaza War, but there wasstill a war in the north.
(40:29):
There were still the Iranianthreats and the Houthis were
still firing missiles.
I mean, they're still firingmissiles, but it was a different
situation.
The war in the north is over.
I was in the north a couple ofweeks ago and it's remarkable,
this used to be a war zone innorthern Israel and now people
are going on hikes, KiryatShmona is full of people again,
Life returns to normal, as itquickly does here in Israel, and
(40:51):
even southern Israel hasrebuilt and people have moved
back, not to the communities inthe Kibbutzim definitely raised
and burned to the communitiesand the people would seem, you
know, definitely raised andburned to the ground, but in the
other places Hamas is adifferent Hamas than it was a
year ago, and so I think, onthat, that's kind of the
positive side of the ledger.
But, like I said, negativelyit's become much more political
(41:15):
whether you continue on withthis war and really it's a war
now in Gaza and it's going tolikely escalate and turn into
quite a difficult insurgency towhat the government says, quote
unquote destroy Hamas right,Finally destroy Hamas.
Or, on the other side of thedebate, to have priority given
to a deal to end the war inreturn for getting the 59
(41:39):
hostages back, including over 20who are still alive, and so I
think that'll be the fault linethis year and we'll be a lot
smarter on the other side ofMemorial Day and Independence
Day.
But yes, it's not just the kindof domestic internal fissure
(42:00):
that we've had here now forseveral years, let's say in
terms of Netanyahu and hisgovernment and the type of
people in the government versus,let's say, the more liberal
anti-Netanyahu forces insidethis country.
For the first time, there'sactually a debate over the
merits of the war, and that'snew, yeah.
Shanie Reichman (42:23):
We'll see where all this takes us.
I hope that you and all of ourlisteners have a meaningful and
maybe celebratory memorial andindependence day here in Israel.
Neri Zilber (42:35):
Thank you, shani, and it's interesting.
I mean, I didn't start off thepodcast by asking how were the,
how were the holidays, how wasPassover on your end?
but very rude but I hope it was,like you said, meaningful and
enjoyable, especially with your,your new addition, so maybe
expanded family Seder, but Iwill say here in Israel, so you
(42:59):
had Passover Pesach, like what,two weeks ago and now you have
this kind of weird long weekendwith Memorial Day and Penance
Day, so on the other side of itin May.
I think that will be kindanswers, but we'll likely see a
(43:21):
much clearer direction of travelon these various issues, both
domestically and in terms of theGaza war starting in May.
Shanie Reichman (43:28):
I love that in Israel, geopolitics and war talk
all go based on a holidayschedule.
We don't have such a thing here, as far as I know.
Like, oh, when Christmas breakis over, then it does not exist
uh I guess it does in congress,but not in a military sense it
does.
Neri Zilber (43:47):
It does in congress .
I think it's.
I think it's less an americanconcept, because I think us
americans we work all the time,uh, but definitely let's say in
europe, uh, you know, july,august is, is a no-go.
You have the quote-unquoteholidays in the winter that go
on forever, and so you knowthere's a reason why various
(44:07):
dictators start wars in Augustand December.
You know, if they want theattention of Washington and
quote, unquote the West to notbe fully engaged on the issue,
they do it in the depths ofsummer, yeah, when everyone's on
(44:28):
vacation.
Yeah, if Americans go onvacation.
Speaker 3 (44:32):
But yeah here, it's a real thing.
Neri Zilber (44:35):
Starting in an hour or two, everything will shut
down here in Tel Aviv and acrossthe country.
And then tomorrow people go towork, but you still have,
obviously, all the ceremonies,so it's not a proper workday.
And then you head intoIndependence Day Eve and
Independence Day proper, whichis a national holiday, combined
(44:57):
with the long weekend Shabbat.
So, yes, nothing will get doneuntil next week, given this
government.
I don't know whether that's agood thing or a bad thing, but
it just is.
We'll have to wait until nextweek.
Shanie Reichman (45:11):
Okay, I'll see you, nari.
Bye.
Neri Zilber (45:13):
Thanks, Shani Bye.
Thank you.
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