Macro Waves

Macro Waves

Stories about money and markets : Monthly talks from the Economic Research department of BNP Paribas. Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

Episodes

Global Economy: Issues to watch in the second half of 2025

July 25, 2025 • 19 mins

As we enter the second half of the year, and after a first half marked in particular on the economic front by the tariff war initiated by the United States, we suggest that we pause and look back for a moment. This will allow us to understand the dynamics that have shaped our economies over the last six months. It will also help us to identify to what extent and in what way they will impact the economic outlook for the second half ...

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What are the effects of US tariff policy on global trade and emerging economies?

July 9, 2025 • 17 mins

To highlight the publication of the second quarter issue of EcoPerspectives Emerging Economies, three members of the Emerging Economies team speak in ‘MacroWaves’: Christine Peltier, Cynthia Kalasopatan Antoine and Lucas Plé. This is an opportunity to take stock of the specific challenges facing countries.

In this podcast, our economists review the consequences of US tariff increases on global growth, the dynamics of international t...

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In the turmoil of US tariffs: what effects on developed economies?

May 23, 2025 • 18 mins

In this new Podcast, we take a look at the short- to medium-term economic outlook for the major advanced economies, analysing the impact of trade tensions, the room for manoeuvre available and the expected economic dynamics.

#growth #inflation #monetarypolicy #us #eurozone #uk


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Audiobrief | Self-employment back to the future

June 26, 2024 • 6 mins
In this Audiobrief, Stéphane Colliac discusses selfemployment in France. It has been growing again for almost 20 years, particularly in household services, but also in business services. In France, which has created nearly 420000 jobs a year over the last 5 years, self-employment has represented almost one job creation out of 5.

Economic Research Website

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Audiobrief | The European Union's trade balance: back in surplus

May 28, 2024 • 5 mins
In this Audiobrief, Guillaume Derrien discusses recent evolution of the European Union's trade balance. The latter moved back to a surplus in 2023. Despite China’s ramping up to higher value-added sectors, the EU trade surplus in traditionally buoyant industries (pharmaceuticals, automotive) remains at historically-high levels.

Economic Research Website

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Audiobrief | French trade deficit: France is relatively deindustrialised but investing

March 13, 2024 • 5 mins
In this audiobrief, Stéphane Colliac describes France’s trade deficit for 2023 main drivers. In addition to a deficit linked to imports of hydrocarbons and a structural deficit reflecting the country’s de-industrialisation, it is also driven by France’s investment in the needs arising from the ecological and digital transition and the electrification of the car industry.
 
Economic Research Website

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#2 - Geopolitical uncertainty: economic consequences

December 21, 2023 • 21 mins
In the second podcast on geopolitical uncertainty and its economic consequences, Daniel Morris and William De Vijlder look more closely at the impact of geopolitical uncertainty on firms, households and financial markets.

Economic Research Website

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#1 - Geopolitical uncertainty: economic consequences

December 19, 2023 • 17 mins
In two podcasts Daniel Morris, Chief Market Strategist of BNP Paribas Asset Management discusses with William De Vijlder, Group Chief Economist of BNP Paribas the impact of geopolitical uncertainty on the economy. In this first podcast, they look at economic and geopolitical uncertainty, why it matters and how it can be measured.


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#2 - Looking beyond the peak

October 19, 2023 • 13 mins
In the second and last episode of the series on central banks and their fight against inflation, Andrew Craig and William de Vijlder are looking beyond the peak and discuss what will come next. Among the questions are: how long will central banks hold rates at these levels? How long will they plateau at these current levels? what come after that?

Economic Research Website

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#1 - Central banks and their fight against inflation. Job done?

October 12, 2023 • 24 mins
In this series of two podcasts Andrew Craig, co-head of the Investments Insight Center at BNP Paribas Asset Management, interviewed William de Vijlder, group chief economist of the Economic Research of BNP Paribas regarding the central banks policies to fight inflation. Among the questions answered in the first episode are:Are we at the peak or can we expect further rates hikes? Is the inflation going to declines? at which pace?
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#3 - National recovery plan Espana 2050: Towards a productivity recovery?

May 31, 2023 • 8 mins
In this third and final episode of the series dedicated to labour productivity in Spain, signs of encouragement for a recovery in Spanish productivity are presented, in particular thanks to a national recovery plan (2021-2026) that is in line with the España 2050 strategy, which consists of raising R&D investment.

Economic Research Website

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#2 - Why Is Productivity Growth So Low?

May 24, 2023 • 7 mins
In this second episode of the series on labour productivity in Spain, Hélène Baudchon and Guillaume Derrien discuss the three main factors that explain Spain's low productivity.

Economic Research Website

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#1 - Productivity Spain's Achilles'Heel

May 17, 2023 • 7 mins
In this series of three podcasts "Focus on Labour Productivity in Spain" Hélène Baudchon, Deputy Chief Economist and Head of the OECD team, BNP Paribas Economics Department and Guillaume Derrien, Senior Economist in the same team, discuss productivity as an endemic weakness of the Spanish model. This first episode reviews the main trends in the evolution of productivity in Spain compared to its European neighbours over the last 25 ...
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AudioBrief | The link between global growth and international trade

March 1, 2023 • 3 mins
In this new AudioBrief, Guillaume Derrien, economist within the OECD team, discusses the close relationship between global growth and the evolution of international trade.

Economic Research's website, BNP Paribas

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#2 – Stagflation: Is it really back?

June 16, 2022 • 14 mins
Is stagflation back? In this series of podcasts, William De Vijlder, Group Chief Economist of BNP Paribas, discusses the issue of stagflation, a term that has been increasingly used in the media in recent months. Stagflation, a multi-year phenomenon combining rising unemployment and high inflation, brings us back to the dark days of the 1970s and 1980s, when inflation levels were unprecedented and mass unemployment began.

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#1 – Stagflation: Reminiscences of the past

June 10, 2022 • 6 mins
The convergence of several factors of tension – the health crisis, the war in Ukraine, the tensions in supply chains – is leading us to speak more and more of stagflation. The term is a contraction of "stag" for stagnation in economic activity and "flation" for inflation. William De Vijlder, Chief economist of BNP Paribas, offers a two-part podcasts series on this worrying phenomenon.

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#3 – Killing two birds with one stone: fiscal policy to boost growth and meet climate goals

September 8, 2020 • 13 mins
In this final episode, William De Vijlder analyses the responses of European governments to
the crisis generated by the pandemic. How to stimulate and maintain economic growth
whilst at the same time developing an environmental policy that meets the challenges of
climate change? The “Next Generation EU” plan recently launched by the European
Commission is discussed from this viewpoint.

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#2 – Towards a lasting change in the way we produce and consume?

September 8, 2020 • 12 mins
In the second episode, François Doux and William De Vijlder discuss the profound social
changes that the pandemic has brought about. The virus has put health at the centre of
people’s worlds, and stimulated new interest in environmental issues. William De Vijlder
explains why these changes in behaviour and mindset could prove to be long-lasting.

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#1 – Covid-19, lockdown and the environment

September 8, 2020 • 6 mins
In the first episode of this series of podcasts, William De Vijlder and François Doux will look
at the concept of externalities to consider how lockdowns, by limiting human and economic
activity considerably, have affected the environment. They also examine the notion of
“green swan” risks; climate-related risks that could threaten the economy.

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#3 – Inflation, perceived inflation and expected inflation: very different things

August 18, 2020 • 12 mins
In the final episode, William De Vijlder turns to the psychological factors in play when it comes to inflation. We will see that inflation, perceived inflation and expected inflation are three very different notions. William also looks at relative prices and absolute prices and discusses how the Covid-19 pandemic has affected prices and the nature of demand. Lastly, he will look at the possible impact of the pandemic on the strateg...

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