Do the First 5 Months of 2025 in Real Estate Signal a Housing Crash?

Everyone’s yelling “CRASH!”
But what if it’s not a collapse?
What if it’s… a comeback?

This episode spills the real tea about what’s happening in the housing market—and why the loudest voices might be missing the quietest (and smartest) shift.

✅ The truth about mortgage rates
✅ What buyers are finally getting right
✅ Why “waiting for the crash” might be the most expensive decision you ever make

It’s not doom. It’s data.
And if you’ve been holding off on homeownership, this might be the episode that changes everything.

🎧 Listen now—and forward it to your smartest friend. The one who’s still renting.

Kevin Martini | NMLS 143962 | Certified Mortgage Advisor | Martini Mortgage Group at Gold Star Mortgage Financial Group, Corporation | NMLS # 3446 | 507 N Blount St, Raleigh, NC 27604 | [phone] | www.MartiniMortgageGroup.com | [e-mail] | Equal Housing Lender

Episode Transcript

(00:00):
What's happening in the housing market right now?

(00:03):
It's the most under-reported story of 2025.
And no, this is in clickbait.
This is a truth behind the headlines you're not seeing.
People are tossing around words like "puretion" or "crash"
like their baseballs and batting practice.
But here's the question no one is asking.

(00:26):
What if this isn't a crash at all?
But a comeback.
Not a collapse, not a correction, but a catalyst.
The beginning is something smart home buyers have been waiting for.
This market is shifting power.
And it's quietly putting buyers into driver's seat.
So before you hit pause on your dream of home ownership

(00:50):
or worse, try to time the bottom.
Well, let's look at the first five months in 2025
are actually telling us.
Because here's the tee.
We are not headed for a housing crash.
We're headed into a wealth building window.
And when the market climbs again,

(01:14):
you'll either own the asset or be priced out of it.
Let's break it down and start with everyone's favorite villain,
mortgage rates.
Yes, rates are higher than they were in the free money era of 2020 and 2021.

(01:38):
But that's not the right comparison.
Here's what matters.
Mortgage rates are cyclical, not permanent.
And right now we're seeing the early signs of the cycle shift again.
Rates have dips slightly from their 2024 highs,
thanks to pooling inflation and the feds signaling potential cuts.

(02:04):
But here's the thing that most buyers are missing.
Your rate today is not forever because you marry the house.
You date the rate.
Now, what does this cliche mean?
You buy the house now while prices are stable and sellers are open to negotiation.

(02:27):
Then refinance when rates fall because they will.
You don't have to wait for perfect conditions.
You just need to have the right strategy.
Because while sellers care about shorter prices.
And the way you do it, you know, home buyers should care about long term costs.

(02:49):
Refinancing gives you the power to reduce those long term costs when the market shifts in your favor.
That's how wealth is built strategically, intentionally and not emotionally.
Not happening. We are not seeing a drop off in home prices.

(03:13):
We are seeing a deceleration of appreciation.
That's very different.
Home prices are projected to rise, modestly in 2025.
Not standing right, but not too many.
Just growing more sustainably.
But here's why that is a good thing.

(03:34):
The rapid unsustainable surges we saw during the able pandemic was not healthy.
This is a shift to a healthier market.
And I'm not pulling this from thin air.
Every quarter, we look at the home price expectation survey.
Real data from over 100 economists and how see market pros.

(03:59):
It's the gold standard of appreciation here at the marketing market through.
As of the latest data, the experts forecast, fuel it to home appreciation up over.
One deeper shaft in the next five years.
So if you're holding out for prices to drop, that's like skipping a flight because the seat isn't perfect.

(04:22):
While the destination gets more expensive every day.
Here's where things get very interesting.
Inventory is growing, but it's not exploding.
Yes, yes, yes, there are more homes on the market than this time last year.
And that's good for home buyers.
More options, more negotiation power, more balance.

(04:47):
But here's the nuance.
In the affordable price ranges, you know, the homes most people want.
The man is still outpacing supply.
Now that means competition is still real.
The window of buyer advantage.
It's open, but not for long.

(05:09):
Buyers, why now have more leverage buyers who wait may find themselves.
Bath in bidding worse.
Let's look at the facts.
Buyers and sellers.
And the fact that the company's in the middle of the market.
And the fact that the company's in the middle of the market.

(05:31):
And the fact that the company's in the middle of the market.
And the fact that the company's in the middle of the market.
And the fact that the company's in the middle of the market.
And the fact that the company's in the middle of the market.
And the fact that the company's in the middle of the market.
That's a 1.8% year-over-year increase in median price.

(05:57):
Inventory.
Nearly a full month from last year.
That's movement.
That's confidence returning.
It's not a market in decline.
It's a market in motion.
Here's the truth. Nobody likes to hear.
You can't time the market.
But you can use time in the market to your advantage.

(06:21):
Homotorship isn't just about shelter.
It's about strategy.
Every month you rent instead of owning.
You're paying 100% interest and building 0% wealth.
Meanwhile, history shows us real estate always climbs after moments like this.

(06:44):
Every single time.
So ask yourself this.
Do you want to wait for the perfect conditions that might never come?
Or do you want to step in while the door is open?
Because it's open right now.
And when the next wave of appreciation hits,

(07:05):
you'll either be watching from the sidelines or riding the wave.
This market is not a crash.
It's a catalyst.
The smart move is it waiting.
It's preparing acting and locking in the opportunity before it's actually gone.

(07:27):
So if you're ready to explore your options with clarity, not pressure.
Let's talk.
My name is Kevin Martini and I'm here to help you give a strategy.
Not just a rate.
Let's build your plan and make sure this year is the year you build wealth.
Not just watch others do it.