Net Assessment

Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss the recent short war between India and Pakistan. Christopher Clary’s first cut of history provides a careful reconstruction of the key events, made all the more difficult by misinformation and disinformation on both sides. But did either side “win”? What role, if any, did Trump administration officials play in negotiating the ceasefire, and what does their involvement portend for the fu...

Is President Trump’s approach to foreign policy best described as a spheres of influence approach in which the major players are the United States, China, and Russia? Chris, Melanie, and Zack debate Stacie Goddard’s recent article outlining this idea and assess the implications for Europe, Asia, and North America. Chris expresses frustration with a new brand of American corruption, Melanie highlights China’s acquisition of land nea...

An immense and growing national debt, entrenched political polarization, and falling levels of patriotism might lead some to conclude that the position of the United States in the world is weakening compared to other major economies. Michael Beckley looks at other measures, including geography, wealth, alliances, and demographics, and concludes that “This is the paradox of American power: the United States is a divided...

Chris, Melanie, and Zack consider Rose Gottemoeller’s claim that arms control is not yet dead, but essential. Are there realistic prospects for a new arms control deal? If the Trump administration seriously seeks agreements with Russia and China, what should we demand? And what concessions might we offer? And what should be the objective of any new arms control agreements? Grievances for the Pentagon’s slow-motion trai...

Chris, Melanie, and Zack launch their first Stimson-hosted Net Assessment show with a look at policymaking in the Trump administration. What are the major areas of consensus and disagreement within the administration? Through what lens will policy makers look at challenges such as China? And is a lack of ideological coherence a net positive or negative? Grievances for House GOP leaders playing games with the ca...

Chris, Melanie, and Zack debate whether Israel will strike Iranian nuclear facilities and whether the United States would discourage, encourage, or participate in such an operation. They come to very different conclusions not just about the likelihood of strikes, but also the strategic logic. Chris laments the removal of historical information from U.S. government websites, Melanie has a grievance with Congress for turning again to...

Chris, Zack, and Melanie have a rather somber discussion about the Trump administration’s efforts to get a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. Why is Trump so insistent on getting an immediate deal? What carrots and sticks, if any, are being given to each side? How will Europe respond to the obviously permanent change in the transatlantic relationship?

Chris has some hard ...

In this show, Melanie, Chris, and Zack discuss Timothy Heath’s recent paper on China’s military capabilities. Heath argues that the People's Liberation Army mostly focused on preserving the Chinese Communist Party’s rule, and that does not necessarily translate to combat effectiveness. But is Heath right? Do we make a mistake in focusing too much on what is apparent from the outside? And if the People's Liberation Army is not ready...

The Net Assessment team discusses Frank Hoffman’s recent Joint Force Quarterly article about risk. They share concerns about the challenges that U.S. policymakers face in evaluating risk in a structured way.

Chris, Zack, and Melanie got together to talk about the second Trump administration’s agenda in the Western Hemisphere. What interests does the United States have in Latin America? Should the United States be pushing back on China’s activities in the region? If so, what carrots and sticks can the United States offer countries there? And will the administration officials eager to focus on the region be able to sustain that focus, wh...

Back from their holiday break, Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss Michael Horowitz and Joshua Schwartz’s recent War on the Rocks’ article, which considers whether and how the United States and its allies should incorporate new technologies into their military forces. Is it time for cheap, uncrewed systems to replace larger, manned platforms? What is the optimal mix of high-end, exquisite systems, and l...

The fall of Bashar al-Assad is transforming not just Syria but also dynamics in the broader Middle East. What implications does this have for U.S. policy in the region? Should U.S. forces withdraw, or is there a continuing role for the American military in Syria? Melanie laments what appears to be the end of the road for Nippon Steel’s efforts to purchase U.S. Steel, Chris questions the panic around aircraft flying over New Jersey,...

The team sat down to talk about the very bleak situation in Ukraine. Is it impossible for Ukraine to overcome its many challenges? Will Trump’s team be able to get Putin to the negotiating table, or is he all-in on victory? What roles might the US and Europe play in a ceasefire?  

Chris highlights an article on the 1983 Proud Prophet wargame, Zack congratulates Alex Wong, who is heading into the Trump administration, and Melanie cr...

Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss how and if the new Trump national security team can help America reset its strategic mindset. What would a successful overmatch strategy look like, in action? How would it differ from the strategy of the last four years? Can the United States mobilize the resources necessary to “ensure lopsided victories over the enemy in combat.”? And what tradeoffs would the United States and its partners need to ...

The United States has a growing disconnect between its foreign policy objectives and the resources it devotes to national security, but inertia has hampered meaningful policy change in recent years. Chris and Melanie discuss a recent article from Christopher Chivvis and Stephen Wertheim that analyzes the challenges associated with overcoming status quo bias. Chris commends Taiwan for purchasing new missiles for...

Chris, Zack, and Melanie sit down for a retrospective episode about the Biden administration’s foreign and defense policy. Using U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s Foreign Affairs article “America’s Strategy of Renewal,” they ask if the United States is better off in terms of national security than it was four years ago. What are the most important accomplishments of the Biden team, and w...

Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss the American military footprint in Europe. Why does the United States maintain such a large presence there? Are there other ways to accomplish our goals with a smaller physical presence there? And what outcomes would we see if the United States made major troop reductions on the continent? Grievances for Tony Blinken’s tone-deaf article in Foreign Affairs and toward Europe for its continued trade wi...

Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss Carter Malkasian's recent article on "America’s crisis of deterrence.” They debate whether recent policy failures are a breakdown of deterrence theory or U.S. policy, and, if so, what to do about them. Chris advocates for the benefits of nuclear power, Melanie expresses excitement about French spies, and Zack commends semiconductor producers for delivering on the CHIPS Act. 

This episode's reading.