Episode 92 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Scott and Robert interview John Bravender, a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration warning coordination meteorologist at the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu. Scott and Robert talk to John about what they forecast at the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (01:04); how they forecast hurricanes (04:45); what a "spaghetti plot" is (13:47); how they evaluate the accuracy of hurricane forecasts (16:06); how they make sure they communicate their forecasts in a useful way (24:32); how to communicate low-probability-high-impact events (29:55); why they don't use the term "vivid lightning" (41:36); why forecasts inherently have no value (44:42); and how to prepare communities to be resilient (55:41). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 4/30/2021)
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