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August 19, 2025 19 mins

Join us on the One CA Podcast as we welcome Mr. Samuel Wong, a leading China and foreign policy expert based in Washington, D.C. In this episode, we unpack Xi Jinping’s recent political maneuvers, the implications of military purges, and what these shifts mean for U.S.–China relations.


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Episode Transcript

Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:05):
Welcome to the ONE CA podcast. This is your host, Jack Gaines.
ONE CA is a product of the CivilAffairs Association and brings
in people who are current or former military diplomats,
development officers, and field agents to discuss their
experiences on ground with a partner nation's people and
leadership. Our goal is to inspire anyone
interested in working the last three feet of Foreign Relations.

(00:27):
To contact the show, e-mail us at ca.podcasting@gmail.com or
look us up on the Civil Affairs Association website at
www.dubbacivilaffairsassociorg. I'll have those in the show
notes. Please welcome Mr. Samuel Wong,
who consults on China and foreign policy around the
Beltway. We discuss Xi Jinping and the

(00:48):
current events in China. So let's get started.
There's two factions in China. You have a Shanghai clique that
originated by Deng Xiaoping, Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao, and
then you have what they call a Jiang army, and that's the
Jinping's faction from his days as party secretary of Jiang

(01:08):
Fujiang. And so he got supporters from
the coastal areas. With the removal of the former
president part of the media, I felt like that was a strong
insult towards that other faction and that they would be
quietly then sitting back and going, OK, what do we do about
this? It goes back to when Xi Jinping
came to power in 2012. So he represents the more core

(01:34):
communist CCP doctrine, whereas the previous regimes under Hu
Jintao represented the more reformist and open economy.
And so that came the clash because the Xi Jinping faction,
Jijiang faction came into power representing the core believers

(01:57):
of Mao Zedong, because those arethe ones that were in the
generation after the Long March that went to school and went
through Communist Party indoctrination and educated to
be core values of the CCP. So more hardline Maoist.
Right, because that's the environment where they grew up
in. Xi Jinping was born in 1955 ish

(02:21):
and so represents the children that was born after the China
Civil War and the Second World War.
And wasn't his father punished during the Cultural Revolution?
He and many others. So he wasn't singled out because
many people were persecuted. You would have thought that that
would have made him more reformist seeing how cultural

(02:43):
revolution was, and I think he seemed at first to be more in
the vein of the reformist like Xiu Jintao early on.
But then he seemed to re embracethat Maoist culture become more
and more strict and centralizingpower the longer he had control
of the CCP. Xi Jinping came to power as
being more neutral to a more stricter communist doctrine and

(03:09):
nationalism, and so he followed the system to a team, moving
through the gates of education and then later on to positions.
And so he did his duties according to the book, and so
that gave him the good marks. In order to get promoted, he
first took on positions that were like hardship duties and

(03:32):
provinces that were in the ruralareas.
And that kind of represented a more of the core of being a
loyal communist. And so moved up from there and
moving into the cities and beingplaced in important positions in
Jejang, Fujian and Shanghai. So there is a certain
progression of leaders. In order for them to move up the

(03:55):
chain, they have to be able to execute those positions
according to the doctrine or thelaw.
I've had a little bit of confusion, and maybe you can
clarify this. We had Chris Mayer, China expert
for the Bush White House. He was on the show with Sam
Cooper and he talked about how the Yi family kind of took care
of Xi Jinping and helped him to build up his political path.

(04:21):
But he also indicated that the Yi family was the Macau criminal
family. But I'm not sure if those are
the same families. I would.
Say a separate China is not a homogeneous society, so being
Cantonese or Southern Chinese, they would not have a whole lot
in common with Chinese from another province.

(04:41):
And there's not a lot of Maoistsprobably in Macau.
No, not, not at all. But they coexist.
They are mutually beneficial. I get that.
OK. So they're having issues with
XI? Jinping Shanghai is where the
Communist Party was born, and sothat represents The Pioneers of
the Chinese Communist Party joinLai, Deng Xiaoping and even Mao

(05:04):
XI Tong. And so that is sort of like the
Oracle birthplace. And so Fast forward to the 80s
where Deng Xiaoping rose to power after Mao XI Tong, he had
actually had in mind the succession plan and so Jiang
Zemen and then later on by Hu Jintao all represented people

(05:26):
that Dong Xiao Ping had vetted to succeed and continue to rule
the country. Xi Jinping is the first one
after that, because don't jumping wasn't around long
enough to decide the most current rulers, of course.
And so with that, the Jingping gained momentum with bringing in

(05:46):
peers of his education and background, mostly from Jajan
region, Fujian, Shandong. So what I've just described,
these are kind of the northeastern provinces, the
coastal cities, and above Guangdong.
So he built his power base by putting in his ministers in the
CCP that would be supporters of his policies and pushing out the

(06:10):
Shanghai clique. Then that's what happened after
the 20th National Party Congressto change the Constitution to
allow the party general secretary to have an indefinite
run for office. The longer he's in there, the
easier his incumbents unless he does something really heinous.
Right, because he surrounds himself with loyalists and so

(06:31):
many changes were implemented inhis rule, starting with the 18th
party Congress and 19 and then the 20th being the most recent
1-2 years ago where they decidedto change the constitution.
So is the internal stressors that are causing a power
struggle because he went from neutral to more conservative, or

(06:54):
is it because he took power awayfrom factions to his own?
Circle so under who Jintao, the prior administration when taking
power in in 2000, China and their leaders had a vision to be
a stronger power. So patriotism and nationalism
had always existed no matter which party or or its click.

(07:17):
However, gaining from the momentum from the economic
miracle going from 2000 through 2012.
This rise of prosperity fit intothe ego of China being a world
power by choosing Xi Jinping, A hardliner to advance that as a

(07:37):
true reflection of communists. But they didn't realize that it
would go to that extreme and clash with the economic reforms
because what they realized is that as China became more open
and more entrepreneurial, more capitalist, and actually being
more free, that it's actually a threat to communism.

(07:59):
Therefore, if the individual is no longer dependent on the state
or the regime, that there's no need for the CCP.
And so bringing Xi Jinping into power was put a check on the
people. So with that, the Chinese were
on board with having Xi Jinping being the leader and very stern
and a role model or a powerful China.

(08:21):
You had all this momentum in the1st 2 terms up until 20/20.
It was at its peak with the Chinese government clamping down
on the Hong Kong pro democracy movement and then initiating the
National Security law. But then COVID came along and
isolated China and the rest of the world.

(08:43):
And we saw how supply chains were affected and where
countries had to figure out on their own how to survive and
even prosper. And I think that what the United
States did to re examine its supply chains and and try to
regain some more independence and some more autonomy from
China. And so the rest of the world

(09:04):
coped with COVID and actually improved after the devastation.
Because China was really the last country to release all of
its restrictions. Right.
And for that, it was teaching things, handling of COVID that
halted everything. Teaching things, continued the
lockdown. Then it backfired because the

(09:25):
economy started to falter, the foreign direct investment was
pulling out, and even the citizens became frustrated and
didn't actually want to go back to work.
You see those videos of people just hanging out all day in
their little rooms ordering foodand playing video games because
they're like, I don't want to goback to work.
They called themselves laying flat.
They said that I'd rather lay flat, stay home, take care of

(09:48):
the parents because at least I can stay home and have a roof
over my head and have food to eat.
Because I think the estimates for their unemployment among
college graduates is 30%. Oof.
But I think that's even more because not all the industries
have returned and also all the foreign companies have moved
out. So there's definitely an

(10:09):
economic issue going on. And that lends to the
instability of the government soas public dissatisfaction with
the economy and lack of jobs. And you talk about not just
manual labor, but also middle class and upper middle class
entrepreneurs who invested heavily in businesses and only
to go bankrupt and not being able to pay their bills.

(10:31):
And that trickles down to not being able to pay their
employees. And so you have a
dissatisfaction from top to bottom.
And even the billionaires such as Jack Ma, they were also
forbidden from making progress. And even Jack Ma was, in a way,
incarcerated. Yeah, he was swept up and had a
long conversation for a while. Over three months now, he's in

(10:53):
exile in Japan. So even if there was this growth
of Chinese innovation and getting into the world market
and having IPOs and stock market, the communists put a
stop to that because it was challenging their authority and
their power. And that was also created
capital flight. The West is making progress,
whereas China's is not, in the recent policies from Xi Jinping

(11:17):
to stimulate the economy double down on the housing sector,
which we saw fall apart with Evergrand.
And so I think they saw that there was positive growth
because the construction also boosted GDP, that they doubled
down. Hey, what worked before, we'll
try again. Construction companies were not

(11:39):
able to deliver and they went bankrupt and the buyers stopped
paying their mortgages. And I think that now these
perceived failed policies has given who Gentiles faction some
ammunition and also some faith in the people to get some
control over the economy, to tryto bring it back to the good old

(12:01):
days. Because the Censi Xi Jinping in
the latter years pretty much declared war on its own people
to get back to basics, back to communism, but it was too
extreme. And now they think that they're
looking to him as as a fall guy for not being able to achieve
that China dream to be that world power.

(12:22):
And now they're actually in a declining.
How do you see this whole thing shaking out?
Whoever controls the army will have the power.
Xi Jinping, for example, wear three hats, one as the general
secretary and the other as the leader of the Communist Party
and also the commander in chief.So they're not always guaranteed

(12:44):
simultaneously. For example, when Hu Jintao came
into power, Johnson men still retained commander in chief.
So he was still head of the military until once they've had
faith in Hu Jintao that he couldgovern in a proper way, the hats
would transfer. So then Xi Jinping held all
three hats and there was recent purges.

(13:04):
So you have to purchase in the first tranches the XI Jinping's
rule to get rid of the Shanghai ministers or party officials and
military, and they were replacedby loyalists, Xi Jinping and his
wife as well. So you had a majority of the
Chinese military committee made-up as the body of seven
generals and most of them were Xi Jinping appointees.

(13:29):
However, two were dual from the Shanghai faction.
And when the vice chairman ZhangYoshiya, he was appointed by
Deng Xiaoping to general officerin 1996.
He has a long history of faithful service to the country,
and he's trusted and most of thetime apolitical.
What happened right after Xi Jinping granted his third term?

(13:53):
He asked Young Yocha to retire and handed over to his deputy.
But he decided not to, knowing that if he religious commands
that Xi Jinping will have total power.
And so he stayed on board in order to still have
representation by Hu Jintao's faction.

(14:14):
And that makes sense. Actually.
It was a smart move because if he had been replaced, Hu Jintao
faction would have been even more isolated.
Right. And so there's been rumors and
recent changes to XI Jinping's ministry and his generals.
Because you would think that when he was appointed third term
in 2022 that he would have the momentum, that he has a cadre of

(14:35):
loyalists. But starting with 2023, his
loyalists started to get arrested and the usual claim was
anti corruption. But it doesn't make sense for C
Jinping to purge his own loyalists.
Well, unless you become paranoid.
Right. But I think that's wrong analogy
to think that he was paranoid like a Hitler or Stalin or Mao.

(14:57):
OK, so I'm following some open source from Canada and from
Taiwan that there was an assassination attempt against
Zhangyou Sha, the vice chairman of the CMC, but he was able to
learn of the plot innovative andarrested one of the other vice
chairman's of the CMC and that was Mao Voi.

(15:19):
And so terrogations revealed that there was a whole entire
plot against General John. And so General John quickly used
his military authority and arrested the rest of these
teaching Ping appointees. Jinping.
Green light the coup. In order for him to gain total

(15:39):
power, he needed to eliminate Zhang Yoshiya and so his
lieutenants. Try to make it happen.
As a measure of thoroughness, General Zhang went ahead and
just took them all out. That represents all of XI
Jingping's military appointees, even including his aide de camp,
have been arrested or disappeared.

(16:00):
And then it was announced that XI Jingping will not attend the
next BRICS summit. Yeah.
And so that is the first time since its inception in eight
years that he will not be present.
And then most recently, when President Lukashenko visited
last month, Lukashenko arrived in Beijing and was not greeted
by any full ministers and was whisked away and very little

(16:26):
coverage by the press. It was a pre arranged meeting
and according to even the Belarusian press, Lukashenko did
not see XI Jingping until right before his departure back to
Belarus. So it was played down as
Lukashenko came to have lunch with XI Jingping.
But I think that's quite strangefor head of state to fly all the

(16:48):
way to meet XI Jingping in Beijing for just a very brief
meeting. If you were to go back and see
the footage of the visit, the meeting did not take place in
the Great Hall or executive offices.
It was on the presidential compound, but like a guest
house. Did he do this as a show of
disrespect to Lukashenko? My take is that it is the

(17:12):
Chinese government not giving XiJinping the status.
Oh, so he was struggling to get his own government in order to
support this visit? Right, and even the photos of XI
Jingping shaking hands with Lukashenko were filed footage of
a previous visit with both the Belarusian and Chinese PRC flag.

(17:36):
And in this one no flags were present.
So for my take, it was a interpretation that the CCP or
the government not allowing XI Jingping the aura of being the
president. And so he's got to build back
the support after the purges andisolation of the different
factions. Right.

(17:56):
And so I think there is a negotiation going on how China's
government, how to move forward.I don't think they would go out
and completely remove the Jinping, but they very much
remove all his power. So you'll see that everybody
except for the premier, Lee Kuanis still around from his
original appointees. All the generals are gone, all

(18:18):
the ministers are gone and even the wife has been missing in
action. And so as my opinion to save
face that OK, we still respect you as the president or leader,
but at a diminished capacity. So pretty much putting him on a
short leash. So do you have any last thoughts
before we close out? I'm glad we had this talk.

(18:41):
I think that there is needs to be some sort of another angle of
looking at China because it's just too easy without putting
some thought into why things arenot as what they seem.
Here are some alternatives for people to do some research.
Thanks for listening. If you get a chance, please like
and subscribe and rate the show on your favorite podcast

(19:03):
platform. Also, if you're interested in
coming on the show or hosting anepisode, e-mail us at
ca.podcasting@gmail.com. I'll have the e-mail and CA
Association website in the show notes.
And now, most importantly, to those currently out in the
field, working with a partner nation's people or leadership to
forward US relations, thank you all for what you're doing.

(19:26):
This is Jack, your host. Stay tuned for more great
episodes one CA podcast.
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