Mike McGlone: Markets are Entering a Time of Serious Systemic Risk

In this podcast interview, Mike McLean, a senior commodity strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence, offers a nuanced perspective on current economic trends, focusing on potential deflationary forces and market corrections. McLean argues that commodities are experiencing a significant downturn, with crude oil down 9% and grains down 16% for the year, primarily due to their previous inflationary peaks in 2022. McLean anticipates a potential market correction, particularly in the U.S. stock market, which he believes is overvalued and approaching a critical point of reversion. He highlights historical parallels with market peaks in 1929 and 1989, suggesting that the current market conditions share similar characteristics of excessive valuation and speculative sentiment. Gold and U.S. Treasury bonds are McLean's preferred assets for the remainder of the year. He notes that gold ETF holdings are up 10% this year, after four consecutive years of decline, and predicts gold could reach $4,000 per ounce. Central bank buying and a potential stock market pullback could further drive gold's performance. The interview also explores the potential impact of tariffs, particularly on industrial metals like copper, and the changing dynamics of global trade. McLean argues that the U.S. is reshaping international trade relationships, which could pressure corporate profits and contribute to market volatility. Regarding cryptocurrencies, McLean is cautious, viewing them as highly correlated with the stock market and potentially vulnerable to a correction. He suggests that the proliferation of stablecoins represents a more practical application of blockchain technology for financial transactions. McLean's overall thesis centers on the cyclical nature of markets, emphasizing that periods of inflation are typically followed by deflationary corrections. He warns investors to be wary of consensus thinking and to pay attention to historical patterns and market signals that suggest a potential downturn. The interview concludes with a reminder that market psychology and sentiment are crucial indicators of potential market movements, and that extreme optimism often precedes significant corrections.