Has McLaren revealed a vulnerability? Japanese GP Review

Max Verstappen pinches pole and victory at Suzuka to make it three different winners from the opening three grands prix, but can the Dutchman keep up the pace in Bahrain this weekend?

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Hello, and welcome to Pit Talk, brought to you by Shaddon's.
On today's episode, Max Mustafan makes it three different winners
from three Grand Prix with a masterclass at Suzuka, and
we look forward to this weekend's bah Rain Grand Prix.
My name is Michael Lomonado. It's great to have your
company and the company of my co host. He's never
felt the need to appease the whims or views of

(00:20):
jacques Ville Nerve. It's Matt Clayton.

Speaker 2 (00:23):
There's so many ways I could go after that intro, Michael,
I think I'll just say thank you for the intro,
and look, we're a couple of days behind. Keen listeners
will know that we're a little bit behind schedule here
this week. I wondered if you'd taken a couple of
days to count on two hands and maybe one foot
the number of overtakes that we had at Suzuka on
the weekend. You were counting one for every four hours

(00:44):
since the race finished on Sunday, because there were a
lot of them. But you are slightly under the weather.
So if there's a little bit of me talking this
week and a little less of you, bad news for
the listeners, but probably good news for your voice.

Speaker 1 (00:55):
Yes, probably bad news for the listeners having to listen
to this voice to begin with. So we have made
it here. I did does triple counting the number of
overtime I mean, in fact, probably had to triple count
seven times over, I think to fill the time with counting,
considering how few we ended up getting fifteen for those
counting at home. But fear not, because Matt later on
we'll be doing a Move of the week nonetheless, so

(01:17):
you can look forward to probably us naming all of
them between us that segment. But let's look at that
Japanese Grand Prix, round three of the series and the
first of the triple header that we're in the thick
of right now, and it wasn't one of the McLaren's winning,
which I think probably if you rewind to our race preview,
I can only imagine we would have said, well, of
course they're going to win. It's a McLaren track, high

(01:37):
speed circuit. They're in the they are the form team.
And obviously both Lando Norris and Oscopiastri individually in great
form and they were and McLaren was, but not winners.
It was Max Forstaffen for the fourth time in a
row at Suzuka, and it gets Red Bull Racing on
the board. This is sort of my overwhelming feeling afterwards,
is that it came way earlier than I would have

(01:58):
thought for Red Bull Racing win. No, it is Max
with staff and of course that we're talking about, how
significant to your mind is it that Red Bull Racing
has been able to get on the board at this
point in the season, And what do you think it means,
if anything, going forward for the next month or so.

Speaker 2 (02:12):
It's funny, isn't it. We keep using the term papering
over the cracks with Verstapan and I think what the
weekend in Japan taught us is that he's the best
champion on the current grid. He also might be the
best underdog as well, because I don't feel like this
was a race that anybody else in an adjacent car
and I use adjacent in air quotes because it's not
really adjacent to the McLaren. This felt like a Grand

(02:34):
Prix weekend that only he could have come up with,
given what it is that he's driving. And to my mind,
the absolute moment of the F one season so far
was that qualifying lap in Q three on Saturday, the
sort of lap that only a driver like Verstappan could do,
and he very rarely lets his guard down to the
degree when he was a younger driver these days, he

(02:57):
was utterly stunned and so excited about how good that
lap was. And I'm sure you did this as well.
You go back and watch the onboard. It is as
close to flawless as you could possibly imagine. And how
he attacked the final chicine. I can't think you could
have pushed that point one of a percent harder and
actually managed to get the cas stick through that chicaine.

(03:18):
It was absolutely mesmerizing. And we know how significant it
was apsychologically because they'd taken it to McLaren and beaten
them at a McLaren track. But we know how races
at Suzuka play out. We've seen plenty of these over
the years, and there are a number of factors that
made this race even more of a Suzuka race that
it normally was. But he had the high ground and

(03:38):
from there on it felt like it was his to lose.
And the one thing we know about maxis Stapanie. He
doesn't often squander good results from a position of advantage.
He's got you in the choke hold at this point
and he just had to execute that first lap or
two on Sunday to more or less had it have
it done. But I was so impressed with what he did.

(03:59):
He the difference in a car that look, it's getting better,
but poundpha Pount, it's still not a McLaren. I don't
even know if it's a Ferrari or a Mercedes. Quite frankly,
it has its high points, but he is so massively
papering over the cracks. But one thing I did enjoy it.
I knew this would raise a smile from you, is
I enjoyed Christian Horner after the race saying this is

(04:21):
even good on the Christian Horner scale of ambiguity. The
basically saying that Redbell were in an advantageous position because well,
McLaren had two drivers and they had to decide what
they wanted to do against Max. And I'm like, hang
on a set here, you're trying to take credit for
the fact that you've got a two team program that
can't produce two drivers a loan for you're going to

(04:41):
take a victory lap because you're one absolute a list
and managed to win the Grand Prix. So you know,
talk about making the most of a situation. But Max
was absolutely outstanding. And the narrative that you read across
the weekend was was this a Grand Prix McClaren lost.
I don't buy that at all. This was a Grand
Prix that red Ball and more specifically Max Verstappen took

(05:04):
from McLaren by ninety seconds of genius on Saturday and
then converting it on Sunday, and it felt like only
a race that he could have won.

Speaker 1 (05:12):
I loved that line from Christian Horner. I'm not sure
I loved it ironically or not, but I think I'm
only very tightly paraphrasing. I think it's the phrase he
used was McLaren's made it, but its bed, and now
it must lie in the bed of having two competitive drivers.
Imagine I thought that what's remarkable. It's like it's been

(05:32):
so long that he's forgotten and it must be it
must be the goal of F one to have only
one driver because McClaren's might got to it's a stay to.

Speaker 2 (05:39):
Be fair, to be fair to Christian here, like he's
getting on in age a little bit it has been
seven years since they had two capable drivers in their team,
so it's been a little while. A lot's happened, So
we'll forgive him that for one weekend at least.

Speaker 1 (05:49):
I thought that was great. But I think you're absolutely right,
And so it's a word that's very rarely not hyperbole,
but perfection is really what this weekend was. For years,
I can't think of a single mistake he made at
any point, like you said, that qualifying lap for anyone
who went to watch it on board, and we're expecting
it to look really larry like it was stepping out
in the way that we've described that Red Bull Racing

(06:10):
cast off in this season. It was remarkable because it
was exactly the opposite. It was a lap that was
like it was perfect that like you say, there was
no corner, particularly not that chicquet that that final she
came where he made up so much time and which
there was any more time on the table. It was
the perfect lap. And contrasted to talk about McLaren's element
here with small, like really small but decisive in the

(06:32):
end mistakes from both Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri And
for me, this is the third race in a row
in which we've seen qualifying mistakes from either the drivers
or the team, whether it's qualifying in Australia where they
both lost their first Q three laps, the sprint qualifying
strategy that ultimately meant Lewis Hamilton was able to take
pole and win the sprint there or again here where

(06:53):
Max Mustaffen was allowed to be able to take pole.
It was only forty four hundredths of a second across
the top three, but that's the only margin Max with
staff and needed to nose ahead and then ultimately win
this race. And it even extends then to the Grand
Prix because well there was perhaps at best and extremely
narrow path for McLaren to win this. Then even in

(07:14):
the race they found themselves responding strategically right like George
Russell's early pit stop meant that they couldn't undercut Max.
Even if that would have worked, it was unlikely to,
but it just meant that they had nothing to respond
to the staff and with and in the end were
just forced to kind of follow him home very closely,
which only underlined the fact that that car was quicker.
But there was just no way to prevent Max with

(07:34):
staff and from winning this. So I guess to ask
the McLaren question here, how much will this one sting?
Because I'm kind of struck by the fact there are
really two attitudes of McLaren. On the one hand, listening
to Andrea Stella on Sunday night, it seemed very relaxed
about it, I think because, and they say it quite openly,
they know they've got the faster calf and now they
know they can win back these points. From the other hand,
no one would have expected Max winning this weekend. This

(07:56):
weekend either. George Russell I think didn't show his full
hand to you look quick at points this week end.
Ferrari I think's got it in there somewhere. The fact
they were able to perform briefly in China suggests, you know, okay,
might take a while that they've got it. Do you
think this is at risk of stinging or is that
just too ready, too much into a really good MAX performance.

Speaker 2 (08:14):
Yeah, I think you can. The pain of losing a
race weekend like this is when there's twenty four of them,
you can afford to have one or two like this.
And you know you mentioned in your intro this is
the fourth year in a row that verstappens one at Zuzuka.
This is a Max track. There are so many characteristics
about this strace track, and even the resurfacing for this year,
which I'm sure we'll get into at some point, that

(08:36):
made it possible. Where are other tracks. No matter how
good Max might be, or how close to as good
as that Red Bull car could be, you're not going
to have that window to operate in because there might
be more overtaking possibilities or greater strategical variants or other
factors that weren't on the table at Suzuka. So it
was a narrow band for everybody to work within, and

(08:58):
Max extracted that more so I think, you know, over
a full balance of season and circuits and with the
car advantage McLaren seem to have that can temper some
of the pain from losing this one. But the thing
with Max is he's a point behind in the driver's
stat is it's not even something that we're necessarily taking
super seriously after three rounds because there's twenty one of

(09:19):
them to go. But also it just feels that McLaren
has more ceiling, more headroom here across a wider range
of tracks and so yeah, there will be some tracks.
We know how good Max is in certain situations, and
there are going to be weekends where, despite the car disadvantage,
you have to look at him as being at least
the equal of the McLaren's, or perhaps even more favored

(09:40):
than the McLaren's. But they are more the outlier than
the norm, so you can afford to be reasonably relaxed.
I don't think you know. You mentioned the little mistakes
that both McLaren drivers made in qualifying that's been a
thieve of this early part of the season. It stands
to reason that those mistakes will start to become less
frequent as the season goes on. And if it comes

(10:00):
down to can Max overcome such a significant car advantage
in order to actually make a difference or is he
just going to be that other guy who's always on
the podium. But going back to something that I said before,
he's had it so and I hate to use the
word easy, because twenty twenty three just they just romped
through twenty twenty three and the first half of twenty four.

(10:22):
You look at what he's done in the second half
of twenty four. In the start of this year, a
staff and he's not had the best car for the
back end of twenty four, but really controlled that championship
and had that one amazing race in Brazil where it's like, well,
this is why I'm going to be the four time
world champion. That was the clincher, but he held everyone
at arm's length, and the way he started this season,

(10:45):
I'm actually enjoying him being the underdog and having to
really fight his corner. I think that allows the more
casual fan to have maybe more of an appreciation for
what it is that he's doing and how good he
is in the historical context of the sport.

Speaker 1 (10:58):
I think so. I think there was a ugliness, might
be a little bit of an exaggeration, but when he
could feel that advantage slipping away last year, when the
trips he was using was suddenly less effective, he saw
some of those almost old fashioned Verstafens elbows too far out,
you know. I think if some of the clashes he
had with Lando Norris been really quite indicative of a
driver who knew he just didn't have the car underneath

(11:20):
him anymore and really need to push the limits starting
behind the eight ball, I think has brought out, like
you say, this very controlled element to Verstafan's approach, where
he's really just he knows there's a limit on what
he can do, and he's going to get to that limit,
and he's going to get that fourth place in China
because that's the maximum. Maybe fifth was actually the maximum,
who knows, but you know, he's just getting that absolute

(11:41):
maximum out of the car. And I think that's going
to be interesting to see how it plays out later
in the year, particularly because Red Bull Racing thinks that
once the front wing rule changes changed after round nine
the Spanish gran free remember the Spanish cran Frie was
around three back in the day, then the game might
change in Red Bull's favor. So it's just hanging on now.
But if I was Red Bull Racing, I'd be going
and paying every tracks to resurface between now and the

(12:03):
end of the Sea. Certainly played a significant role in
McLaren not having the advantage it expected. Tywee was way lower,
and it does seem like based on Suzuka, which is
obviously only one particular type of circuit, but the McLaren's
race advantage really does lean close to exclusively at least
in reference dreadball racing on that tire. Where because in
the race, okay, it was clearly the faster carve Andrea

(12:24):
Stella was sort of talking about tenth of a second
at most, and Max is able to make the difference
there and pudge that gap. So I think there's something
interesting and that then you sort of think you can
do this sort of mentally, I suppose. I think all
the tracks that are coming up over the course of
the season with degradation is pretty low. Most street tracks,
degradation is pretty low. Some it's nonexistent. Suddenly you studdenly
pencil some of these in, regardless of whether or not

(12:45):
rule changes bring RedBull back into it or whatever. I
was thinking, well, actually, you know, those fears of George
Russell trying to say well, they're just going to win
every race seemed pretty far wider than mark.

Speaker 2 (12:55):
I've got a question for you, which will give you
a chance to rest your voice for the next thirty
seconds while I ask it. But you mentioned before about
the Piastre stop. You know, everyone was going to make
one stop because of the low tie wear, and there
was a story really that you know Piastre pitted when
he did to cover off George Russell after Russell had

(13:15):
gone earlier. I now, whether I'm looking at the wrong
data or whether I'm just misinterpreting it or not. I
felt that that was less of a threat from Russell
behind than was being made out, and you extrapolate that through.
McLaren really needed to pit Norris on the lap that
they pitted Piastre to give them some sort of tool

(13:37):
to fight within this fight with Verstappam. Because if you're
Red Bull racing, you're looking at Piastre pitting first, we
know it's a one stop strategy. The logical assumption from
there is like, well, they're just going to pit Lando
the next lap, surely, and then because Versappen was ahead
of Norris on the road, they could pit at the
same time. So in a race where there were very
few strategical cards to play, McLaren were committed to doing
this stop with Norris aft. Because they pitted Piastre first,

(14:00):
Red Bull could just cover them off and that was
pretty much game over. From there, it relied on Max
making a mistake to allow Norris back through. But from
your vantage point in the press room and from everyone
that was there, was there a bit of a surprise
that they were so worried about Russell behind Piastre and
not really looking forward with Norris.

Speaker 1 (14:17):
Yeah, it was super cautious, and I think this sort
of defines McLaren's entire approach to this Grand Prix, being
really defensive having it seems really like they decided Andrea
Stale got close to sort of saying as much that
by the time the race started they couldn't get ahead
of Max at the start, then that the maximum they
were probably going to get was second and third because
there wasn't a lot of strategic option. He really spoke,

(14:38):
He said more than once, I think of this idea
that if you fall behind a car through strategy, whether
because you're undercut or because you stay out and there's
a safety car, because he addressed even the idea that, well,
why didn't Lando just stay out longer to build an
offset and that might have damaged it strategically or whatever,
that you just wouldn't get it back because no car
had a significant enough pace advantage all things being equal,

(14:59):
to overtake at this track, because overtaking is so hard,
and so he was saying, well, if they'd fallen behind
George Russell, even though I think it was around four
seconds when Russell pitted, and I think it was still
around four seconds when Oscar petered to cover him. Plus
there were three cars between them once he pitted, and
Oscar briefly fell behind Oliver Beerman if memory serves correctly
as well, so if you flip them with Norris, you'd
say probably wouldn't have fallen behind Oliver Berman, and I

(15:21):
think it would have worked out, but it just seems
super cautious. I don't think he would have had they
would have had a problem pitting the other way around.
I also don't necessarily think that would have got Nora's
ahead of a stap and either considering that it was
just hard strategically to make any moves. But it just
think and I think to say it was defensive and
conservative is the correct identification because I think that's exactly

(15:42):
what they were doing. I don't know. I don't know
that it was I don't know that it is baked
into the way they're going to approach this season. We've
asked questions about their overall season approach so far this year,
and obviously it'll take more races to know what's a
season based assumption or what is a race by race approach,
but that was definitely what was happening this weekend. It'll
be interesting to see because the other question, I guess

(16:03):
to answer your question with another question something I was
thinking about in the media center afterwards. If the positions
were reversed and this were Red Bull Racing, but in
this hypothetical there has to be a second competitive Red
Bull Racing.

Speaker 2 (16:13):
Cars, Well, that's it. That's the end of the question
from the stuff.

Speaker 1 (16:16):
Yeah, I don't imagine, but if positions were reversed, I
think if you were Red Bull Racing, even if you
were Mercedes in its title winning era, you choose the
more aggressive option, even if the odds are not that high.
I don't think either of those teams would settle for
second and third knowing that well, you know, they'll probably
win more races later and then it'll be fine, agreed.
I just think that. I think it does say something

(16:39):
about the way McLaren's going to go about this year.
It's talked a lot about it's going to win the
Contructors Championship first. Confident can do that, then worry about
drivers later. It's very methodical. But part of me wonders
is that if it's going to end up being too
methodical when push comes to shove and decisions like these, and.

Speaker 2 (16:54):
It may not matter in terms of the Constructors Championship.
It probably won't, to be honest, but you know, we
have to remember that. You know, yes, last year they
won the Constructors Championship. It wasn't something that they had
the entire year and defended because the first half of
the season, I mean, their season really came alive after
Miami last year, and they slowly built and built and
built and then got to a position of advantage. But
it was never significant enough that they could relax on that.

(17:15):
And that's one of those things that they haven't competed
from this position of pace and competitive advantage for a
long long time. You know, a lot of people in
this team have never done that. So maybe there's that
built in layer of conservatism where your example there is
a very good one, except for the bit when it
required Red Bull to have two competent drivers at the

(17:36):
front of the race, because if the situation was reversed,
I could absolutely see Red Bull rolling the dice to
try and put McLaren in a position to make a mistake. Now,
nothing ventured, nothing gained, right, It might not work, but
I can see Red Bull asking the question that McLaren didn't,
and that, to my mind, is the difference between a
team that's done a lot of winning and is prepared

(17:56):
to back itself and a very processed, driven team that
is still coming to two with the fact that they
are now the hunted and not the hunter, and there
is a psychological difference between and two.

Speaker 1 (18:06):
All Right, Matt, I think we've put it off long enough.
It's time for Move of the Week by Shannon's. No
reflection on Shannon's, of course, more on a reflection of
the word move in this particular segment name. Japanese Grand
Prix featured fifteen overtakes in total. None of them were
among the top six, and only one was among the
top ten. It was that kind of Grand Prix matters

(18:27):
is not just because it's traditional, but also because I
think it makes life easy for me. Do you want
to go for your move of the week?

Speaker 2 (18:34):
Would you like me to count them down from fifteen
best to first? Probably? Do have the time, Let's not
do that. Very handy gadget on FOREX, the Great Formula one.
Stat's a data base that I went into because I
knew you were going to ask me this very question.
I'm going to go for the only move on track
that changed a position within the top ten, which was

(18:55):
on lap six when Lewis Hamilton overtook Isaac Hadja to
go from eighth place to seventh and flip those two around,
because every other driver in the top ten finished in
the same position in which they started. So it's a
very very low bar, but Lewis Hamilton was able to
go over it or under it, depending on what you'd
like to do with bars. So Lewis Hamilton over Isaac
Hadja on lap six is the best of a very

(19:18):
very shallow pool of overtakes for this week. Do you
have another option that's better?

Speaker 1 (19:22):
I do have another option that's better. Is really up
to you. Just for those playing at home, only four
drivers finished higher than they started with his entire Grand Prix.
My option for move of the week is Red Bull Racing,
moving Liam Lawson back to racing bulls and putting Uki
Sonotia in the seas. I had to go for a
little bit of a lateral approach here. I don't know
that it beats you by the strict interpretation of the

(19:43):
rule to this segment and we will talk about this
a little bit later on in the show as well.
We look forward to the Barrain Grand Prix. But despite
returning no points, not escaping that one, I think it
did pay immediate dividends for Red Bull Racing. Not only
was there a remarkable atmosphere around this at the Japanese
Grand Prix, because this was a really big deal for

(20:05):
the home fans. We have been wondering many of them
would have been assuming that Yuki had a pretty good
chance of being out of a driver, as I think
we talked about last year by the end of the year,
and has been unloved by the Red Bull program almost
since he was inducted into it. It seems so for
him to get this drive in a competitive car and
to look competitive in it until making a mistake in
Q two that left him knocked out of Q two

(20:26):
and therefore unable to score points. As we've illustrated, I
think none of that negates the fact that he looked
like an immediate upgrade in that seat on Liam Lawson,
and if I were Red Bull Racing, I'd be looking
forward to seeing how he does from here, because I
think suddenly it feels a little bit more optimistic.

Speaker 2 (20:44):
I couldn't agree more. I think that's actually a really
good call. I'm going to follow this up with a
quick question, because you were on the ground and I wasn't.
Sonoda was announced as moving to Red Bull Racing a
little over a week for his home Grand Prix, and
I know how the Japanese Grand Prix works, having done
a million of them over the years. I'm assuming that
every piece of poster and paraphernalia and promotional equipment was

(21:05):
hastily changed at the last minute and was probably absolutely
perfectly executed by the organizers. I'll be shocked if you
tell me that wasn't the case. But explained to those
of us only watched it on the TV what it
was like being there with Uki in that Red Bull
main team, because I'm sure it would have been absolutely fantastic.

Speaker 1 (21:22):
Yeah, that was honestly. The first thing I noticed was
how he was in his Red Bull gear everywhere you went.
Train station. Yeah, at train stations like things not even
connected directly to the Grand Prix. Random promotional material had
him front and center in his Red Bull Racing overalls.
When you consider that, it appeared to me the people
who run the F one TV Intro could only get

(21:44):
a still image for him in the intro sequence. Go
back and have a look, not even a video sequence.
A remarkable work from the organized and we're not just
talking small posters, we're talking the big grand stand size ones.
They did a remarkable job, and it was reflective of
the fact that it was such an enthusiastic atmosphere for Yuki,
even having arrived in Tokyo. It's obviously quite farther the

(22:07):
race circuit from any major city people who know about
Formula One, and most people there have an awareness of
the Grand Prix. Regardless when not they're fans, the first
thing they'll say is, well, Yuki Sonoda. They're all very
excited about Yuki Sonoda, obviously more so the fact baps.
Some of them were maybe a bit more excited they
need to be, considering he'd set his dream target I

(22:27):
think was his phrase, as a podium, so that probably
got hopes up a little bit higher than they needed
to be. But nonetheless, everyone was very excited to have
their home guy in a competitive drive. It's something that
surprised me every time I hear it that no Japanese
drivers ever won a Grand Prix and it does feel like,
I mean, you'd have to beat Max with staff and
to do it obviously, but he could be the first. Now,

(22:48):
now that's reading a lot into some good practice and
qualifying times, but he feels close enough from what we've
seen that that's not an unrealistic thing to think about, pending,
of course, a few more Grand Prix. It doesn't feel
like we're sitting here talking about why it needs a
few months to really get up to speed.

Speaker 2 (23:04):
It feels like, no, no, there's not like there's fifteen
things that need to happen for it to be a possibility,
like it's absolutely probable. But to take people behind the
curtain of what Suzuka is like, and this is one
of my highlights of going there every year. The race
happens because the sun sets very very quickly. As we
were discussing offline before we started recording today, the sunsets
there super super fast. So the race will happen. There'll

(23:26):
be the podium, and then all on the big screens
around the circuit they will replay the race for a
second time, and the main grand stand, which is massive,
it takes up the entire start finished straight at Suzuka
basically nobody leaves and they sit and watch the race
again that they've just already watched before on the big screen.
And then when the race finishes, everyone politely claps and

(23:47):
then leaves. It's one of my absolute favorite traditions of Suzuka.
It could not happen anywhere else. That is what this
fan base is like. So I can only imagine how
super charged it was with Yuki and the big team.

Speaker 1 (23:58):
All right, let's move on now, map to this weekend's
Bahrain Grand Prix. If you enjoyed the time zone of
the Japanese Grand Prix, we'll hold that close to your
heart because those days are over a one am start
time on Monday mornings, So get excited for that. But
let's look at what we have to look forward to
with this Grand Prix because there is quite a lot.

(24:19):
It's I actually think but and this is not just
because I think Australia belongs is Round one, but I
think this is the natural place for the Bahrain Grand
Prix because if we're going to still have pre season
testing there, it gives everyone a little bit of a
run up to it. You know, everyone's discovered something about
their cars, They've all been back to Europe as well,
since the n or back to their factories obviously after
the Chinese Grand Prix before Japan, and have had time

(24:40):
to work on what they learned from pre season testing.
Now we returned to the circuit at which preseason testing
took place. There's a lot of data therefore banked up
with these specific cars, around about three days worth, depending
on how many technical problems you had, which means I
think we'll have after this race a much clearer look
at the form guide than we've really been able to
have it first three Grand Prix now they're all different circuits,

(25:02):
of course, these when we get up to the first four,
even the first five after Saudi Arabia, but this is
the one I think will really give us a good
indication of who's actually really maybe more than just the
form guy, but who's really understanding the car they've got.
Because we know roughly what happened in testing, no, roughly
what we've under the last three races, what happens this weekend,
I think we'll really give a simplarity.

Speaker 2 (25:21):
Yeah, I couldn't agree more. I love the fact that
we've got this gap between preseason testing and then having
the Grand Prix on the same circuit a because it
gives us time to let things bed in a little bit.
But there's also you look at the way these first
three rounds have played out this year. The race in
Melbourne was affected by weather China, and round two is
a sprint weekend, so that's naturally going to be compromised anyway.

(25:42):
And then Suzuka is just such a one of one
in terms of what we're talking about in terms of
track servicing and ability to pass and so on and
so forth. It does muddy the picture a little bit,
but we've got time to see what's happened over these
three races. If you have a Grand Prix at the
same track ten days after preseason testing finishes, guess what
you're going to get a fairly predictable Grand Prix. So

(26:02):
I like the fact that it's a little bit later
in the season. Who has managed to retain where they
were in pre season testing, who's made the jump? And
that goes with drivers too, because so much of this
year's grid is so unproven at Formula one level, you've
got this other variable where a quarter of the grid
have done their first three Grand Prix in these first
three weekends. So who's come on faster, who's learned, whose

(26:24):
rat of improvement is going up or down? And then
you add the whole Red Bull team swap thing going on.
Super interesting. I do like the fact I don't think
it's going to happen, but I would love to see
more seasons wherever we end up testing and it's increasingly
going to be barray in these days. Let's be honest,
let's not have it as Round one. Australia needs to
be Round one. Everyone knows this, of course, But I

(26:46):
do like the fact that we've been able to get
the narrative of the season started, and so we're not
beginning the story at the same track where we've had testing,
We're continuing it. And I think that's a super interesting
variable for one am on a Monday morning. I'll take
what interesting very much I can get.

Speaker 1 (27:03):
I think in that context as well, this is a
really big weekend for Ferrari because Ferrari is a team
that looked certainly more convincing in pre season testing than
it has done since it didn't look like it was
going to be a McLaren bead or necessarily even on
par with McLaren. That seemed to be general consensus after Bahrain,
but we thought that it would be a much closer match,
and with the exception of that sprint qualifying and race

(27:26):
in China hasn't really been there. It's been a little
bit in no man's land in fact, somewhere bobbing between
third and fourth fastest kind of in competition with Mercedes,
which weirdly felt like it's overperformed a little bit, despite
the fact that doesn't really look that convincing either, except
when George Russell pulls out a really clean weekend like
it did in the first two rounds of the year.
But Ferrari for me in particular, is a big one. Obviously,
they've got the Lewis Hamilton storyline this year. Charlotte Clair

(27:49):
is the driver who seems like he's been getting most
out of it in the last couple of rounds with
some good performance of his own inclining with a missing
front wing in China. How big a weekend you think
this needs to be for the Italian team? It does
already feel like the way Fred vass is talking is
that getting into that period where we've just got to
keep everyone's hopes up a little bit.

Speaker 2 (28:07):
I feel confused by Ferrari more than I feel, and
that's not I mean that could be a compliment because
they may have upside, But after three rounds, I feel
like I've got a reasonable handle on where teams are,
whether they're at the sharp end or whether they're at
the back. I mean, I kind of know what Alpine
is at the moment. It's not great, but I know
what they are. I kind of feel that I know
what most of these other teams are, even with the

(28:29):
driver swaps going between Red Bull and racing Balls. But
Ferrari to me is it's kind of the shoulder shrug
emoji at the moment, like I'm not really sure what
they are. I'm not sure they know what they are
and how they are because like you talked about, I mean,
they've had a sprint pole and a sprint win already
this season, and then you have other races where you know,
Lewis Hamilton is not really anywhere at Suzuka, and then

(28:51):
after the race there was this particularly vague interview in
the pen where it's like, well, there's some things that
aren't right and we need to change this one thing.
But we found this thing, and there's lots of references
to things in inverted commerce, which is what you say
when you're not really quite sure why you are where
you are. So whether that's him just masking over some
of the issues that they have, or whether he's just
trying to be diplomatic, I don't know. But I'm just

(29:13):
confused by what they are because I suspect that their
upside is really quite high, but I've got no confidence
that they're going to get to it. And you know,
you mentioned Fredversh, so he mentioned at Suzuka on Sunday
that this season could very well go down the path
of being a quality championship in that qualifying is going
to have outsize importance given the difficulty of dirty air

(29:34):
and passing as we've seen in these first three rounds.
If they can't get Saturday right, there needs to be
a lot of randomness or curveball step apps change their
fate across a weekend. And so I'm just not one
hundred percent sure what they are at the moment. I
think they're capable of a lot better, but I need
proof of it. And you mentioned Leclair to me Hamilton

(29:55):
at this point of his career is probably going to
be spikier and that the performance Graft's going to have
quite high peaks and quite low valley's relative to La
Laclare's the guy who's just always there. But is that
always their fourth or fifth or is that always their
genuine podium chance on a weekend. I don't think we
can have any questions about what Charlotte Clare's ceiling is.

(30:16):
We've seen it. He's a very, very very good Formula
One driver. I'm just not sure about the team operationally
and where that car is at at the moment. There's
just a lot of questions coming out of the first
three rounds. For me.

Speaker 1 (30:26):
Yeah, I mean, it seems like the problem really is
that they can't run the car anywhere near as low
as they'd thought. It sounds a lot like Mercedes probably yes,
over the last few years, but then it makes you
one day, Okay, bar Rain is quite an old surface,
but I guess because of the temperature of the climate
there whatever, it's still pretty smooth in a macro sense.
It's like quite rough for the tires, and it's a

(30:46):
whole different story for this weekend. But maybe they'll find
they can run it and the way they did during testing,
they'll look a bit more competitive and this might actually
end up being a good weekend for the Wino. Charlotte
Claire does reasonably well around here, certainly better than McLaren
has historically. Yeah, that's something, but they do. I think
they really need more than they need a good result.
I'm necessarily how do you're saying, well, they really need
to win now for anything to happen this year. But

(31:08):
I think they need to result that they can explain afterwards.
I think that's more of the because even if you
talk to them still about the Chinese Grand Prix, other
than Lewis Hamilton being ahead at the start, which obviously
was very important, they can't really tell you much more
about it than that. And I think that, for me
is almost the more concerning that McLaren dissected very well.

(31:28):
You know why they weren't able to win this Grand Prix,
Max Vestaffan's Brilliants at Red Bull Racing sort of we
understand what happened this weekend with Ferrari. Every week it
seems like, well, to go back to where you started,
a bit of a shoulder shrug. I don't know, see, well,
whatever happened happened.

Speaker 2 (31:44):
Yeah it was good. It wasn't good it's not great,
not great podcast content, that's not great for a media debrief.
So what was your weekend? So good for it? Oh
there's a bit of that going on at the moment,
So yeah, I'll be interested. The fact that we are
going back to a track where we have relevant twenty
twenty five data to draw should mean that their starting
point is more set this weekend. And then it comes

(32:05):
down to execution. What can they do in the long
runs on Friday, assuming we get a normal weekend without
red flags every three minutes and things being on fire
outside the track they were at Suzuka breaking up all
the long runs, And then what can you do in qualifying?
Because you know, yes, it's a circuit with bore passing
opportunities than Suzuka most circuits are, but this is also
a track where your grid position is pretty important. We

(32:26):
know they've got two really good drivers, one of whom
is still finding his way, one of whom is an
absolute elite performer. But I just some of the removing
some of the confusion would be a good outcome for
this weekend.

Speaker 1 (32:37):
I think one other driver I want to see a
big weekend from this weekend is Jack doing not because
I think I'm not buying into the narrative. Always really
got end to a lot of pressure. You's got to
show something. But I think it's just I think he's
just due for a more complete weekend. Certainly. I think
Japan obviously was a real low point and he's big.
Crashing FP too really colored the rest of his weekend,
But so was losing FP one time, obviously to the

(33:00):
one of the mandatory reserve cards Alpines had to play
this year. He's been quick throughout this season over one lap,
hasn't he, But he just hasn't been able to put
it into a full race performance. To be fair, Neither
Alpine drivers scored yet, and I think that I feel
like he's building up to it when now back at
tracks he knows a little bit more. Intimately, Bahrain's pretty
well worn, particularly even in the junior series as well.

(33:21):
I feel like, if it's going to happen, this weekend's
a good opportunity for him to really to put it
all together. You know, I have a regular Grand Prix weekend.
As far as I know, there are no reserve drivers
lining up to take his seat in FP one this
weekend or any other session. I think that I'd like
to see him bounce back from that crash well this weekend.

Speaker 2 (33:38):
Well, Alpine did stick a guy in the car for
FP one who subsequently left the team in the past
few days, just signed on as a reserve driver with half,
so that was interesting. But look, it was to use
the Sky Sports analysis of his crash in at the
start of FP two on Friday, oh dear seemed to
be the way that was described on the commentary. And look,

(33:59):
clearly it was a mistake by Jack and he was
lucky that he wasn't more physically damaged from that, although
he was compromised during the Grand Prix with that left hand.
But you're right, he just needs a weekend of just
stacking decent performances one after the other, because I feel
that the others have all been slightly compromised to a degree.
We mentioned the Sprit weekend in Shanghai. I don't know

(34:21):
about you, but look, they're the only team that hasn't
scored a point yet Alpine, so it's not like he's
being massively outperformed by ghastly at this point. But this
feels like Jack may not score a point in Bahrain.
I don't know but this feels like a weekend where
he needs to be or just about made Q three,
like he's out by a tenth and a half or something,
and then he's in the conversation for perhaps that sort
of ninth to twelfth in the race. It's a circuit.

(34:44):
He's very familiar with this circuit. He's done reasonably well
in the past. You've been their preseason testing. A lot
of the usual rookie hurdles are out of the way
for him. This weekend he'll actually get too practice sessions.
So you know, there's no such thing as make or break,
and we know the stories of him being on a
short leash and so forth still bubbling away. But if
there was a chance for him to have a solid
weekend and perhaps still a point or two, this definitely

(35:05):
feels like it.

Speaker 1 (35:06):
Yeah, I think that's absolutely right. And in a similar
veay this being let's say a rookie friendly experience, not
only because the track's got lots of runoff all that
kind of thing, but then there's a preseason testing element
and this having been a regular feature in the junior series,
I think fascinating question this weekend is going to be
the Yuki Sonoda Liam laws In comparison, it was all
of the build up to the Japanese Grand Prix. It

(35:28):
was non stop through qualifying. It did stop a bit
in the race because obviously not a lot happened in
the race. But now we get a much cleaner situation.
It's not the first weekend back for both of them.
Yuki doesn't have his home race thing. Lem's not going
to be after are answering questions about being dropped, sort
of a more normal experience. Both of them obviously their
first experience of these cars at this track, so the
preseason element doesn't count, but all the other things should

(35:50):
be good in their respective favors. I think a really
big weekend to see what both of them are capable of.
Yuki Sono weirdly almost think you Snoda might be under
a little bit less pressure because I think think he
did prove a little bit in Japan. Liam Lawson relative
to Isaac Hadja is fascinating to me because Isaac's doing
such a good job no matter how tight his belts are.
It turns out I think it's actually going to be

(36:12):
even more challenging than perhaps even I thought. Liam going
back to that team for him to put in a
relatively competitive good showing.

Speaker 2 (36:19):
I'm just sitting up a little more straight more seat
after thinking of that, Isaac Hadja qualifying. Oh no, let's
not go there. Yeah, I'd agree with you in that
I felt that there was some control and composure with
Sonoda at Suzuka, given the stakes and the crowd and
the first time out with Red Bull and being at
home and so on and so forth. I don't think

(36:39):
he's been conservative, but their ramifications of getting it wrong
at Suzuka are pretty severe. As we know. Bahrain is
the complete opposite, of course, because you've got so many
of these corners where you can take a risk and
there's a shopping center car park on the outside where
you can just run off and rejoin again. So perhaps
we see him push things a little bit more this
weekend and that could have, you know, on extreme or

(37:00):
the other in terms of results. But he really needs
to be in Q two sorry Q three for mine
to you know, Suzuka was all the caveats that you
mentioned before. I think he needs to be a little
bit better, but the lawsome thing. I'm looking at this
more in the context of I'm not sure too many
of us thought that Isaac hajo would be this quick,
this quickly. He's been excellent so far, and look, we

(37:21):
know what happened at the start of the race in Australia,
and you know Helmet Marko and so on and so forth.
There's not don't need to go into that, but the
pace that he's shown over these first three weekends for
a guy who came through F two with a reputation
of being a bit spiky emotionally and perhaps a little
bit radic, he's been really, really, quite good. And so
I think every result that Lawson gets, obviously back in

(37:42):
a team that he's more familiar with, needs to be
looked at through the prism of what Hajar is doing.
Because to my mind, Hajar has been terrific and Lawson
we've seen that it's there because he's done it over
the course of his cameos in the past couple of seasons.
But he needs to be back on that speed pretty quickly,
because the thing about that racing balls car, when you
watch it on track, it actually looks, you know, less

(38:06):
difficult to drive than some of the other cars that
we see that are being man handled or are just
playing slow. It looks like a pretty drivable sort of
a car, and I think Hajar's performance is in that
probably spelled that out. So yeah, I would expect Lawson
a lot of pressure off. You know, the conversations of
seven days ago was suddenly going to change, aren't they
this weekend because he's more settled, But big weekend for

(38:26):
probably more lawso than Sonoda, I would say, because I
think Yuki can comported himself pretty well at Suzuka laws
and we need to see a bit of an Upticknate
with relative to who he's driving within the other car.

Speaker 1 (38:37):
And at a minimum, there's no one really a replace
with but Laws and there are options, So there's always
more pressure racing balls, isn't there. You wouldn't think if
you think it'd be longer than two races.

Speaker 2 (38:48):
Well, Isaac haj said that he'd be ready to step
up to Red Bull if need, so you can always
be play that card by about round seven or something.
We haven't had a time to change for a while.
But after that then, yeah, the cup's pretty bare, isn't it.

Speaker 1 (39:00):
You wouldn't put it past anyone, would you. So maybe
that's a good point before we wrap this one up
and let's look at the complete home filtration crystal ball.
What we've got to look forward to in the next week.
And there's a lot of action this week. In fact,
all three of our categories F one, Motor GP and
supercars are in action. Kick us off, what are you
predicting for the next week of racing.

Speaker 2 (39:21):
I'm predicting that my double espresso consumption on Monday may
reach world record levels given we have a one am
Formula One race followed by a three am Motor GP race.
Also can as an aside, why have two World championships
four hundred and fifty k's apart on the on the
map which I actually looked at and went their basically
could drive from one to the other almost inte both.

(39:41):
But my crystal ball has been mostly broken so far
this year because my crystal ball keeps telling me Lewis
Hamilton's going to be on a Grand Prix podium and
it doesn't happen. So I'm going to stay with the
podium theme and I'm going to say that Sunday in
Bahrain is going to be Kimmi Andtonelli's first Formula One
and he's going to finish third.

Speaker 1 (40:00):
Go for it. He was just predicting the wrong Lewis
Hamilton car you're talking.

Speaker 2 (40:03):
About, Yes, yes, the successor not the incompany. Yes, yes,
I'm saying Kimmiy Antonelli is going to end up on
a Formula One podium sooner rather than later, and it
could be as soon as Monday morning Australian time.

Speaker 1 (40:14):
Well, I would love to see it, and he did
have a good weekend in Suzuka in the end, despite
starting on the back foot, actually ended up doing really
quite well. And I think we're seeing pretty much every
round why Mercedes rates him so highly. I'm going to
go towards the back end of the points and I
am going to say in the points, to hark back
to something we were talking about earlier, I think this
is Jack Dowin's first points this weekend. I feel like

(40:34):
these are the circumstances for them. I feel like that
he's already proven that one lap speed is there and
I think in the circumstance of Bahrain he'll be able
to show it. Should have pretty clean build up to it,
and then in the race. I mean the LPNE car
at some tracks just has the pace to do it
if they don't shoot themselves in the foot with strategy.
I think he can get it done. I think it'll
be important weekend for him to do it. I think

(40:56):
it'll certainly go quite a long way to changing the narrative.
It's still kind of lingers a little bit about these
rumors about his seat, and look, it'd just be a
good story, wouldn't it your rookies to score his first
points and from obviously to be Jack to And I
think that'd be a good outcome.

Speaker 2 (41:08):
Completely agreed. And there will certainly be a lot of
people listening to this podcast who are nodding their head
because look, the more Australians in Formula one the better.
And we know the journey that he's taken to get there,
we know the pressure that he's been under. This would
go a long way to alleviate some of that. So
let's hope we get to see it.

Speaker 1 (41:25):
On that note, that's all the time we have for
pit Talk today. You can subscribe to pit Talk wherever
you get your favorite podcasts, and you can leave us
a rating and review as well. And this weekend, as
we said, is the bar Rain Grand Prix at one
am is all in Australian Eastern Standard time. The Kat
a Grand Prix at three am and all weekend we've
got supercars from New Zealand. That's actually more morning time,

(41:45):
so you might just have to get up early and
then roll through go to better around three pm in
the afternoon. That might be the best approach and you
can keep up to date with all of it all
the lates steff on Supercars and what a GP news
at Fox Sports dot com dot Au from Matt Clayton
and me Michael Lomonado. Thank you very much for your company.
We'll catch you next week.