Dynasty Baseball Pickups: Ep 109 - HTH Playoff Strategies and Week 21 Pickups

On this episode, Kyle (X:@Sonny_108/BS:@Sonny108) and Taylor (X/BS:@DynastyPickups) discuss their HTH playoff strategies as well as the latest injuries, promotions, and this week’s recommendations including David Hagaman, Dalton Pence, Sterlin Thompson, and Esmil Valencia.

Topics Discussed:

• Playoff Strategies - 0:43
• Injuries, News, and Notes - 9:33
• Promotions - 13:48
• David Hagaman - 29:43
• Dalton Pence - 36:05
• Sterlin Thompson - 41:03
• Esmil Valencia - 47:19
• Recommendation Rankings - 55:42

Send us an email to [e-mail] to have your question answered on a future episode of the podcast

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:06):
Hello, and welcome to the Dynasty Pickups podcast. Today is
August twenty ninth, and we are recording on Friday night
this week. I'm going camping this weekend. Taylor. I believe
you have some plans as well. But first, I'm Kyle Santeig,
and of course I am joined by Taylor Corse. So
how are you doing today? Taylor?

Speaker 3 (00:25):
I'm doing good.

Speaker 2 (00:26):
It's always different when we're doing like a Friday night
recording versus a Saturday one, But as long as we
only have to record once this time, I think it'll
be fine.

Speaker 1 (00:33):
Yeah, fingers crossed. This is just one take. Otherwise it's
going to get to be a pretty late night for us.
We will try to avoid that as best as we
can today though. But Taylor, I don't know about you.
I've got a few leagues still hanging on to the
regular season right now in fantasy, but most of them
are into playoffs at this point, so I wanted to
get your thoughts on playoffs strategy and whether or not

(00:55):
you change up how you manage your fantasy teams when
the playoffs roll around.

Speaker 2 (01:00):
Yeah, we were just chatting about this a little bit
prior to recording here. I do change up a little
bit in my strategy.

Speaker 3 (01:05):
Now.

Speaker 2 (01:05):
Obviously, when you're talking about playoffs, you're talking about head
to head league, and that could be points or it
could be categories, And I think how your strategy changes
really depends on the league format obviously and the specific rules.

Speaker 3 (01:17):
Of that league.

Speaker 2 (01:18):
So like in a categories league, your strategy could depend
on how many categories you have, whether you have more
ratio categories versus counting categories, and then obviously if it's
daily versus weekly. But in general, we play a lot
of daily categories leagues. I think those are the most
fun in terms of strategy because you can really go
any number of ways. Every day just feels like it's

(01:40):
another challenge and trying to outstrategize the other person. And
in general, I think the biggest opportunity there is with pitching.
Obviously a lot of the leagues that were in there's
a pickup limit. They're generally deeper leagues, so you're not
necessarily getting great streams off the wire, But it is
a situation where I'm going to be pretty aggressive early
on the matchup, particularly if it's a one week matchup,

(02:02):
and just throwing all of my pitchers that I can.
I'm not worried so much about the ratios. I'm hoping
for the best, but I think in general, unless you
have way more ratio categories than you have counting categories,
I like to just build the pressure on the other
team to get ahead in those counting categories, and then

(02:22):
if I do somehow end up with good ratios, then
it's even more pressure against that other team, and they
have to be the ones making the desperation streams later
in the week. If I try to guard my ratios
too much early on in the week and then something
goes awry, which it definitely can in a one week matchup,
then I'm the one that has to struggle to find
people on the wire that are probably gonna do more

(02:43):
damage than they're gonna do help. So that's really my
biggest strategy is leaning heavily on just any arm I
can early on in the week, and then the other
piece is just make sure that you're trying to plug
every gap in your lineup. So if there's days where
you don't have hitters going, that you're picking up hitters
to stream for those days as much as you can.
Days where you don't have enough pitchers going making sure

(03:05):
that you're getting relievers that have a chance to help
your ratios or maybe snag a saver hold if you
can as well. So that's really my strategy. But curious
what your strategy is, Kyle with those Yeah.

Speaker 1 (03:18):
I really don't have a whole lot to add because
I think I approach things very similarly to you. The
one big thing for me, and I think you are
thinking along the same lines, maybe just said it a
little bit differently, is I'm going to be a little
bit more aggressive with my ads and drops. Where in
season there are certain players I probably wouldn't drop quite
as readily as I will in the playoffs, but I'm

(03:40):
much more willing to attack the hot hand, be it
a bat or an arm in the playoffs because you
need players to perform right now. In the season, you
can get away with waiting a little bit for guys
to turn things around, but in the playoffs you need
those performers right now now. Obviously you have to draw
a line in the sand as far as the young

(04:01):
players who are not performing yet. For example, I have
one roster where I have Cam Smith who has just
been planted on my bench as of late because he
hasn't been doing a whole lot of anything, but he's
not a player that I'm willing to drop because of
how much value he has going forward versus somebody like
say a Jeff McNeil, for example, if he's not performing
right now, he's probably somebody that I'm more willing to

(04:23):
drop and go find the hot hands. So again, whether
it's the bat or the arm side of things, I'm
definitely more willing to be more aggressive with my ads
and drops this time of year, which I think really
plays into everything you were saying. Maybe I'm just putting
a little bit of a different spin on it with
the exact words I'm using.

Speaker 2 (04:39):
Yeah, I one hundred percent agree. And it's also not
just playing the hot hands for the waiver decision. It's
playing the hot hands for your lineup too, right, Yes,
you want to make sure that regardless of if you
have some perennial All star who's really slumping right now,
you may have to bench him and you may have
to throw in like the guy who you know is
just on a hot streak, because especially in a daily league,
you need production that you need it now to stay

(04:59):
alive in these matchups. It's definitely one of those things
where it's always right the hot hand at this point
in the year. The other thing I want to mention
is something that you had brought up prior to our recording,
is once you get eliminated from the playoffs, hopefully you don't,
chances are you probably will at some point get eliminated
from the playoffs. Take advantage of that. Go ahead and
drop the short term pickups that you picked up, whether

(05:21):
it's relievers or I think you mentioned Pedro Pajaz, is
the kind of a short term stop gap in your
catcher position.

Speaker 3 (05:26):
Drop those guys.

Speaker 2 (05:27):
Pick up the interesting prospect you think could rise this
offseason is more more people pay attention to them. And
that's something I also look at, like in my last
day of matchups, if I know I'm going to lose
and I have some waiver transactions left for the week,
I'll go ahead and make those moves at the very
end of my last day of matchups, because sometimes the
leagues will lock the roster moves and once you've been eliminated.

(05:48):
So if you're in one of those leagues, just take
advantage of that. If you know you have no shot
on that last day, make sure you load up on
the players that you want to keep all throughout the offseason.

Speaker 3 (05:57):
There.

Speaker 1 (05:57):
Yeah, that's a great call out, and we will get
to one of those players that both of us added
a few shares of as we're nearing the end of
this week later in the episode here. But before we
get into that and into our recommendations, we've got a
lot more great baseball discussion coming today, and that does,
unfortunately include some more injuries and some more big names
on the injury front, but we've also got some demotions,

(06:20):
some promotions, some really exciting big league debuts happening basically
as we speak. I think a couple of big arms
just finished their outings tonight. And then we will get
into the main discussion of the night, focused on some
of the names that you can find in our written
articles this week. But before we get to any of that,
I do want to remind everyone about all of the

(06:40):
incredible content that we have going on at Prospects Live
right now. That includes the daily sheets, the Dynasty, Prospect
and Open Universe lists, and that Dynasty list. We are
tirelessly working right now on yet another update, so that'll
be coming in the next few days and weeks here,
But We've also got the Trade Analyzer and Trade Matchmaker,
p Live Plus and Hobby Plus. There's the Dynasty Closer Hierarchy.

(07:04):
There are our Dynasty Baseball pickups written articles. There's Sunday
Smoke from Darren Eisenhower, Diamond diplomas from Lucas morel three up,
three down from Tom Gates, Who's up from Andrew Dahl,
and our pro scouting team just released their updated Top
one hundred prospect lists as well. Then we move over
to the podcast front where Nate, Drew, and Reese released

(07:25):
episode thirty of the on Deck podcast as they discussed
their all MLB team at this point in the season,
and they also released episode thirty one today I Believe,
where Drew and Reese discussed this year's FYPD class and
Drew's rankings of the class. Then we move over to
the Amateur Our Pod, where Trevor and Adam discussed some
prospects who have been called up recently as well as

(07:48):
some that they think should be called up for the
end of the season. Here and then, Taylor, you are
part of episode eighty one of the Dynasty Pod in
which you discussed some player battles with Tom Lucas and Greg.
So if there's one name that maybe they swayed you
on in that podcast, who would that be.

Speaker 2 (08:06):
Yeah, So I went up against Lucas with the run Escobar.
I was the fore side, he was the against side,
and I think he convinced me a little bit because
I hadn't really taken an account the fact that a
run Escobar, in addition to seeing his power really drop
off throughout the year, he's also not that good of
a defender, and I hadn't taken that into consideration. That's
gonna limit his opportunities going forward. I will say, I

(08:27):
think he hit a whole run today, so hopefully that
power is on its way back. But yeah, that was
one that I was swayed a little bit on. Was
a run Escobar there.

Speaker 1 (08:34):
Yeah, So, as you can tell, there was a lot
of really good discussion in that episode. So if you
guys haven't gone and listened to the most recent episode
of the p Live Dynasty podcast yet, go do that
as soon as you can. But as you can tell,
there's a lot of awesome work being done up and
down Prospects Live. Whether you like to read articles, listen
to podcasts however you want to consume your content and

(08:56):
whether you're into fantasy baseball, the amateur side of things,
card collecting, you name it. We have something for every
kind of baseball fan and it is all available for
as little as five dollars per month in one convenient
place at prospectslive dot com. If you enjoy our podcast,
please give us a rate and review. We really appreciate
the support, and please give us a follow while you're

(09:17):
at it. You can find me at Sunny Underscore one
to eight on X and Sonny one o eight on
Blue Sky, and you can find Taylor at Dynasty Pickups
on both. You can also get a hold of us
with all of your Dynasty Baseball questions at Dynasty Baseball
Pickups at gmail dot com. Now let's get into some
of the news and notes from baseball over the last week,

(09:37):
and we start with some injuries. As I said off
the top, maybe not as many injuries as in past weeks,
but some big names here. As we start with Marcus Semion,
who is dealing with both a fracture and a Liz
Frank sprain in his foot. He is expected to miss
four to six weeks, effectively ending his fantasy season at least.
We've also got Nathan Eavaldi rotator cuffs for him, likely

(10:01):
out for the rest of the year. Frankie montass is
due for elbow surgery. I don't think they've decided one
hundred percent yet on whether or not that is Tommy John,
but he is done for the year. Jacob Lopez and
Trevor Megil both have flexer strains. No news yet on
the timeline on either of those, I don't think, but
they are likely done for the year. Corey Seger just
had an emergency appendectomy, so he's gonna miss a few weeks.

(10:24):
Alec Burlison is dealing with a wrist injury. Xander Bogarts
has a foot fracture, and then a potential injury that
just popped up over the last half hour or so
as Dalton Varshow was just hit by a pitch in
the hand and removed from the Jay's game tonight. So
Taylor again. Lots of big names, lots of fantasy impact here.
Who from this list is maybe hurting your playoff teams

(10:46):
the most right now?

Speaker 2 (10:48):
Oh, it's Nithany Evaldi and it's not particularly close. Just
having a Syon caliber season that I think the best
season of his career pretty much, hands down, and to
all of a sudden be out for the year. It
wasn't like, oh he's hurt, we don't know what's going
to happen. It was on Tuesday announced that he was
going to be out for the year. So everybody that

(11:09):
is in those weekly leagues put him in their playoff matches,
they're without their race there for the week. So that's
just one more reason to prefer daily leagues to weekly
leagues there. But yeah, that was a huge blow to
a couple of my playoff teams, and I think to
a lot of people out there.

Speaker 1 (11:25):
Yeah, I've got a few teams that are hurting from
that one. And the other one for me right now
is Corey Seger in part because, similar to Eavaldi, this
is just such an out of the blue type of
thing and completely unpredictable as far as appendicitis goes, So
that one really hurts to a couple of high level
performers that will be missing most likely the rest of
the fantasy playoffs in both of their cases here, So

(11:47):
definitely a couple of painful ones for fantasy owners here.
But we'll move on to some injury updates as well.
Zach Wheeler, it is now official he will miss the
rest of the season. He had surgery for thoracic out
let syndrome. It's six to eight months of recovery, and
this is one that we've seen a number of pitchers
struggle to come back from, really never looking the same afterwards,

(12:09):
So that will be something to keep an eye on
in the following years. Now, Francisco Alvarez has a broken
pinky after being hit by a pitch while out on
a rehab assignment in Triple A, and Randy Rodriguez has
been recommended by several doctors to undergo Tommy John surgery,
So not only would that end this season for him,

(12:30):
but he would have his twenty twenty six wiped out
as well. Now, Taylor some big names here, obviously, Zach
Wheeler is the biggest one. We talked about him in
depth over the last couple of weeks, though, So between
Alvarez and Rodriguez, what do you see as maybe the
most actionable here, because this potentially provides some opportunity for
some other players down the pecking order.

Speaker 2 (12:51):
Yeah, I mean with Randy Rodriguez, if you haven't already
you got to go out there and grab Ryan Walker
if he's available, because he becomes the closer at this point.
We've seen him hold down that position quite well last season.
He's really rebounded this year after a very slow start
and that ended up losing him the closer job there
in San Francisco. It makes that comulative all trade look
even worse now that I was never a fan of,

(13:13):
because now you have Randy Rodriguez out not just for
the rest of this year, but for next year as well.

Speaker 3 (13:19):
So big blow to the Giants.

Speaker 2 (13:20):
But luckily they have pretty nice bullpen there and they
have Ryan Walker ready to go to take over that position.

Speaker 1 (13:27):
Yeah, he is definitely the name to nab right now.
Still probably owned in most leagues, but absolutely worth going
and checking your waiver wire for, especially in leagues that
only count saves. I think in saves hold leagues he's
probably been held for most of the year, but in
saves only he might be available, So go jump on
that asap if you haven't already. We'll move on to

(13:49):
a quick trio of minor league injuries here. Now Taylor
Braylan Dody and Edward Florentino are both out. It's the
minor league, so unfortunately, we don't often get a lot
of information, and that's the case here unspecified injuries for
both Dodie and Florentino. But we do have a little
bit of information on Cold Drake, who is dealing with
a shoulder strain. So some big blows here to some

(14:11):
prospects that have seen their stocks really rise this year.
I think this effectively ends the season for all three
of them, but all in all, really exciting seasons for
all three of these guys.

Speaker 3 (14:22):
Right Yeah, Especially Florentino.

Speaker 2 (14:24):
I think he's making his way to like top fifty,
top twenty five prospect status at this point. He's closing
in on really high prospect really in fantasy.

Speaker 3 (14:34):
The injury for him.

Speaker 2 (14:35):
Dolls that a little bit, but obviously it's only gonna
slow it so much if he comes back healthy next year.
I think the more concerning thing is going to be
the two pitchers, Brayland Dodi. We just have no idea.
But I was really excited about what he had done
this year. I thought he was an underrated arm that
I wrote up a little bit earlier this year. So
not great to see him injured. I know you and
I have like col Drake for quite a while since

(14:57):
last season at least, and shoulders is never a good thing.
So hopefully all these guys can be back healthy starting
next year and they won't dem their stock too much.

Speaker 1 (15:07):
Yeah, great call out on the pitchers there. It's unfortunate
anytime that a prospect or any player gets injured, but
especially at the end of the year here when we're
just not going to get much of any info as
far as updates go going forward because there's just not
a lot of time for them to return. But we
will move off of prospects for a moment. We're going
to discuss a few DFAs as well as one player

(15:29):
being released. We'll lump them all in together here because
Carlos Santana and Andrew Heeney have been dfaed by the
Guardians and the Pirates respectively. And then, in a bit
of a surprise move, not that he has necessarily been
performing well, but Walker Buehler was released by the Red
Sox earlier today to make room for a name that

(15:50):
we will discuss in a little bit here. So, Taylor,
is there anybody in this group that really did surprise you?
And is there anybody that you think might catch on
with another team and could potentially help some fantasy owners
in their playoffs here to end the year.

Speaker 2 (16:05):
Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if any of these guys
catch on with another team, but I think I think
Walker Bueler is the one that I think it's definitely
gonna catch on. I can see heene as well Santana.
I think we might be reaching a point where he
just might be retiring. He might be pretty close to
done at this point, but you could maybe say that
for the last few years and he's continued to stick around,

(16:26):
So we'll see on him.

Speaker 1 (16:28):
Yeah, good call outs there. We will move on quickly
to one demotion, one that I don't think really surprises anybody.
We discussed last week that we wouldn't be surprised to
see this happening, because Yo Stinson Garcia has been sent
back down Triple A already by the Red Sox. Are
you concerned at all by the way that he performed
in his brief debut here or are you chalking it

(16:49):
up to small sample and the fact that he really
didn't get much of a shot. I think he had
two games, a full at bats and he walked twice
and had a hit, So It's one of those where
he just didn't really get much opportunity, if any, So
I don't think it's going to impact my evaluation of
him much at all.

Speaker 3 (17:06):
Yeah, I'm with you there.

Speaker 1 (17:08):
You can't take much of anything from the opportunity that
he got, if you can even really call it much
of an opportunity. Like you said, he got into three,
four or five games, but really only played two games.
So there's not much we can take from this. So
we will move on to some exciting news and some
promotions here with Dean Curley and Chase Mobley appearing in

(17:29):
single A Here, Taylor, how excited are you for again
maybe another wave of these professional debuts? Now?

Speaker 2 (17:37):
I'm pretty excited, Like I've I'm not a big Dean
Curly guy to begin with, and he's off to the
slow start here. But overall, obviously, the more data we
have the better. Absolutely, I think a lot of the
kind of big names that we want to see debut
this year already have or at least the ones that
we are going to, so we're probably not going to

(17:57):
get a whole lot more of that, But regardless, it's
nice to get more information on the class and just
be able to flesh out our thoughts and potentially our rankings,
because this is one of the hardest classes that not
that we've been doing this for a long time, but
one of the hardest FYPD classes that we've ever had
to rank.

Speaker 1 (18:13):
Definitely all right, And then we've got a trio of
players moving up to HI A someone I recently discussed
in Dante Nori, and then a couple of big risers
so far this year in Caleb Bonnemer and Justin Gonzalez
are also heading up to HI. A taylor of this
group who really stands out to you for what they've
done so far this year.

Speaker 2 (18:34):
Yeah, I just keep moving Caleb Bonnamer up my rankings.
I just I'm fully bought into what he can provide.
Off to a hot start at his new level, already
has a OPS over eleven hundred and as many walks
as strikeouts since August first, he's just been completely awesome.
I went ahead and traded for him at the trade
deadline in one of our leagues, getting rid of Seth

(18:55):
Lugo and of roll This Chapman because it was one
of the where I wasn't making the playoffs and Bontemer
was part of the return, and I couldn't be happier
because he's just been on absolute fire. It's worth mentioning
Dante Norri has only played three games at High A,
he already has five steals there, so definitely what you
want to see with him keeping it going. And then

(19:16):
justin Gazalz, I know, he's a guy that you had
written up earlier on in the year, did get hot
before the promotion, but still a ground ball rate on
the year over fifty five percent and just really hasn't
been able to get into that power. We'll see if
that changes, but he's one that I think is falling
down rankings at this point until he can get that
power in games.

Speaker 1 (19:33):
Yeah, I think with Gonzalez the big thing here is
the power projection because everything else that he's showing has
been really good. I think he's been displaying better contact
ability than a lot of people were expecting. But like
you said, he just needs to lift those launch angles.
But speaking of maybe some guys who we are waiting
to see the power really appear in game, and somebody
that it is starting to come around for Walker Jenkins

(19:55):
was promoted to Triple A earlier this week, and I think,
like I said, he's started to get into some of
that game power, as he hit seven home runs in
fifty two games in Double A before being promoted to
Triple A. So, Taylor, is this a player that is
maybe starting to trend in the right direction as he's
starting to show off some of that power or are

(20:15):
you still a little bit hesitant given the relatively small
sample size that the power has shown up in.

Speaker 2 (20:22):
Yeah, I think he's moving up with my rankings, but
I'm not having him where he was at his peak
yet because it's not just that the power hasn't fully
transitioned yet, it's also the injury issues that he's had
over and over again. And it's really promising to see
him performing well. Now I'm higher on him than I
was a month ago, but I think it's gonna be
really telling just what metrics we see in Triple A there.

(20:45):
Do we see good quality contact metrics? Do we not
see those? Because I think that's gonna have a huge
swing on his value going into the offseason here. Yeah,
I'm with you one hundred percent there, And it's worth
noting too, like he's still a very highly rated prospects,
so his stock can really only go up so much
at this point. It's still encouraging though to see him

(21:06):
having a bit of a healthy stretch here and getting
into some power. But like you said, the numbers, the
data that we get out of Triple A is going
to be really important here. Yeah, exactly, all right, Now
we move on to a few players reappearing in the
MLB before we get to some debuts. We've got a
couple of twins arms in Mick Abel and Taj Bradley,

(21:27):
And just earlier today the Diamondbacks called up Jordan Lawler. Now,
if I'm remembering correctly, neither Abel or Bradley had fantastic
Twins debuts, and Lawler hasn't been stellar in Triple A
as of late. But these are all still players that
probably deserve and should be in the Major League. So
who here are you maybe concerned with Taylor? Because these

(21:49):
are some guys that have all seen their stock drop
as of late. Yeah, I think the one that concerns
me the most is Nickabel. I think he's the one
that sort of had the most pot up performance this year. Obviously,
he's been a highly regarded prospect for a long time,
but really hasn't performed like one for a while. I
think of these three, he's the one that I feel

(22:10):
is most likely to just fizzle out. They all have
plenty of risk, but Todge Bradley, we've seen him have
success for sustained periods in the majors obviously right now
is not one of them. And Jordan Lawler, the pedigree
is so high there and he really hasn't had that
many opportunities to fail at the big league level. So
I would definitely value those guys a lot higher than

(22:32):
Mickabel for sure.

Speaker 1 (22:33):
Absolutely, And I think even then it's probably Jordan Lawler
ahead of Todge Bradley too.

Speaker 2 (22:39):
Correct, Yeah, I think so. It's actually fairly close probably
between them. I'm not as high on Lawler as a
lot of people. And again we've seen TODG. Bradley have
success before. Obviously there's been a lot of inconsistency to
go along with it. But but yeah, I think I
would definitely take Lawler over Bradley at this point.

Speaker 1 (22:57):
All Right, we are in agreement there, Taylor. So let's
get to some players that we are really excited to
talk about. Let's get into some big league debuts, and
we will start with another Canadian arriving in the MLB.
I love being able to say that this time we
are talking about Mets right handed pitcher Jonah Tong, who
has just flown way up everybody's rankings this year, and

(23:18):
he started for the Mets earlier tonight against the Marlins.
He got through five innings, allowing four runs, but his
defense really didn't help him out much because only one
of those runs was earned. He gave up six hits,
no walks though, and six strikeouts, So Taylor, The question
for a lot of people with Tong was whether or
not he would be able to repeat his unorthodox delivery

(23:39):
well enough to command his pitches and have success. So
no walks in his debut is really nice to see.
And while his command numbers are still a bit fringy,
with a sixty three percent strike rate and a ten
and a half percent walk rate on the year down
in the minor leagues, he also had a sub two
er a k rate over forty percent and led the

(24:00):
minor leagues in strikeouts by a wide margin. I believe
it was more than thirty strikeouts, more than anybody else
in the minor leagues. So is he just so nasty
that the fringy command is enough or are you still
a little bit worried about where that command will take him?

Speaker 2 (24:15):
You gotta be a little bit worried. But I for
the most part, I'm buying in to him. If I
have a option to grab him in a redraft league,
still I would for sure. Obviously at this point you
probably missed that boat. But I started him in my
playoffs in the three leagues where I have him for
those playoff teams, So that's how much faith I have
in him being successful going forward.

Speaker 1 (24:37):
Yeah, I think you can really be pretty confident in
Jonahtong going forward, and I think we can be pretty
confident in this next arm too. But Taylor, this is
somebody that you and I have to eat a little
bit of crow on because earlier this year when we
discussed Peyton Toley in February in our fypd ADP episode,
I believe neither of us were particularly I pressed and

(25:00):
thought that he just looked like a funky lefty, maybe
a middle reliever. But how were we supposed to know
that he was going to turn into an upper nineties
monster and arguably one of the most dominant left handed
pitchers in all of the minor leagues. This has just
been an incredible transformation for Peyton Toley, and thankfully we

(25:21):
came around fairly quickly because we discussed him back in
May on the podcast and we were a lot more
positive already at that point than we were when we
discussed him just a couple months earlier. He made his
debut today against Pittsburgh. He went five and one third innings.
He gave up two earned runs on three hits and
two walks, and struck out eight. So a really solid

(25:42):
debut for Totally as well. But that raises the question, Taylor,
are you with me in calling him, as well as
Jonah Thong top five pitching prospects right now?

Speaker 3 (25:52):
Yeah?

Speaker 2 (25:52):
I think you have to for both of them. They've
just been, like you mentioned, so dominant. Getting to this
point and then both having very successful MLB debuts is
exactly what you want to see. So I'm sure they'll
have their bumps in the roads like most prospects do.
But yeah, I think they're among the upper crop of
pitching prospects for sure.

Speaker 1 (26:11):
Absolutely. So if I had to put you on the
spot right now, Taylor and make you choose between Totally
and Tong, who would you take right now.

Speaker 2 (26:20):
Who I think If I think it's really close, I
think I would go totally. But if you asked me
like yesterday, I think I would have gone Tong. So
it's really close. I haven't quite gotten to that point
in my rankings yet. Actually, let me check. I think
I did rank them, and I think I do have
Tong higher. I think I need to move totally up

(26:40):
a little bit.

Speaker 1 (26:41):
More though, So while you're looking at that, Taylor, I'll
just say I have them side by side in my rankings,
so exact same tier. But I have totally one spot
ahead of Tong, So I'm with you. This is by
the thinnest of margins, but I would probably take totally
just ahead of Tong right now.

Speaker 2 (26:59):
Yeah, I mean they're really close. In mind, I do
have Tong ahead, but I don't think I'm gonna move
right now. I'm gonna move totally one spot ahead of Tong.
So there you go.

Speaker 3 (27:07):
And that would be pitchers number three and four in
my rankings.

Speaker 1 (27:14):
I think that's exactly where they are in my rankings,
two pitchers three and four.

Speaker 3 (27:19):
There you go.

Speaker 1 (27:20):
What do you know? We've been doing this together for
what three years?

Speaker 3 (27:23):
Now?

Speaker 1 (27:23):
Who would have thought we'd be putting some of these
guys side by side.

Speaker 3 (27:26):
Huh, Yeah, that's awesome.

Speaker 1 (27:28):
Absolutely, Now, Taylor, those are a couple prospects in totally
in tong that, as we said, you can pretty confidently
plug into your lineups for their starts going forward. Unfortunately,
I don't really think you can say the same about
these next two prospects in Saint Louis, where the Cardinals
are calling up both Jimmy Crooks and Caesar Prieto. Now,
Preeto makes a ton of contact, but he doesn't walk much.

(27:51):
It's a really aggressive approach, and he doesn't bring much
to the table in terms of power or speed, so
he doesn't really look like he's gonna be much of
a fantasy friendly play. While Crooks might be interesting in
some deeper leagues, maybe two catcher leagues, but I actually
dropped him in a deeper two catcher league earlier in
the year, so that probably tells you where I'm at

(28:11):
on him. But do either of these Cardinals debuts interest you?

Speaker 2 (28:15):
Yeah, I think Crooks is the more interesting one, and
you called it probably more so in the deeper leagues
or two catcher leagues. But the thing about Crooks is
that he actually has been really hot lately and he's
a really good defensive catcher, so he's gonna get all
kinds of opportunities.

Speaker 3 (28:32):
Von Herrera.

Speaker 2 (28:33):
It seems like the ships kind of sailed on him
being the long term catcher for the Cardinals.

Speaker 3 (28:38):
There.

Speaker 2 (28:38):
I think it's gonna be Crooks, and with those opportunities,
there's a little bit of power there. Fourteen home runs
this year, again, he's been hot as of late, that
there's some ability there. So I think in deeper leagues
where you know that backup catcher, speculative catcher, maybe a
third catcher or something like that has value grab him.

(28:59):
Two league for sure, he should be rostered because I
think he's gonna get plenty of run.

Speaker 3 (29:04):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (29:04):
I think the big thing with Crooks is that he
is a very strong defender behind the plate, So this
is likely there every day quote unquote catcher going forwards.
It's just going to be a matter of exactly what
we get out of the bat. There is some power
in there, there's a little bit of ability to hit.
I don't think he's somebody that you're necessarily going to
want to have to rely on as your fantasy catcher,

(29:27):
but in those deeper leagues where he's your second or
maybe third catcher in a deep two catcher league. I
do think there's some viability as far as rostering. Jimmy
Crooks goes exactly all right, Taylor, Now that does it
for the debuts. We are through the news and notes.
Let's get into this week's recommendations, and let's start with
your first player that everybody out there needs to know.

Speaker 2 (29:49):
Yeah, this is definitely what everyone needs to know, because
you and I were running out to grab him everywhere
we could earlier today as we were both prepping for
the podcast here, and that just shows you how exciting
this guy is.

Speaker 3 (30:00):
And that's David.

Speaker 2 (30:01):
I believe it's Hagaman, twenty two year old starting pitcher
in the Diamondbacks organization, currently at hig A, listed at
sixty four two hundred and fifty pounds, right handed pitcher,
just two percent rostered on fan tracks, so he's out
there in a lot of leagues, and so far on
the year, just thirty nine and two thirds innings pitched,
two point seven to two ERA, zero point eight one whip,
thirty five point six percent k rate, just a five

(30:23):
point four percent walk rate, and Hageman was a fourth
round pick by the Texas Rangers in last year's draft.
But the reason why he doesn't have many innings pitches
he didn't debut until June because he was recovering from
internal brace procedure that he underwent pre draft. He actually
didn't spend long pitching in the Rangers organization because he
was moved at the deadline as part of the Merrill

(30:43):
Kelly deal. And in fact, he didn't pitch many innings
in college either, so he only threw seventy three and
a third innings across two college seasons because he was
primarily reliever and then went down with injury. But what
Hageman's done in his pro debut, it's just been really
impressive because he's dominated since the start of the year
and has been even better with the Dbacks since the trade.

(31:04):
So immediately after the trade, Arizona promoted him to High
A and he basically got better in every regard than
he was at Single A, which was already really good.
Across the new level. At High A, he has seventeen
and a third innings pitched, and Hageman in that time
has put up a two point six to zero ERA
which is actually a little bit unlucky because he's got

(31:24):
a two point four to one FIP, he's got a
zero point sixty three whip, forty point three percent strikeout rate,
and just a three point two percent walk rate. In
each one of those marks represents an improvement over his
single A numbers, as does his seventeen and a half
percent swinging strike rate and his sixty eight percent strike rate.
He's also pitched deeper into games, so he's averaging four

(31:44):
point one innings per start in high A versus averaging
just three innings per start in single A, which is
not surprising because again, he was still recovering from surgery
when he was pitching in single A earlier on in
the year. And I think the biggest thing between the
two levels there and after the trade is the massive
decrease in walk rate. So he went from a nine
point seven percent walk rate at single A to a

(32:06):
three point two percent walk rate at High A. And
that's the most exciting to see because really the command
and control have been the biggest knock on Hageman in
scouting reports. Now, he did struggle with that in college.
He was a reliever. Fangrapts and their scouting report gave
Hageman at forty five command grade. MLB Pipeline gave him
a forty control grade. But it does look like the
Diamondbacks have helped him out in that area, and that's

(32:28):
not all they've done, because Baseball America report that they
also worked with him to introduce a new mid eighties
curveball that he's using heavily now, and it's exciting addition
to an arsenal that already includes a mid nineties fastball
the maxes out at ninety eight with lots of run,
a mid eighties gyro slider, and a mid eighties fading changeup.
All three of those pitches receive at least above average
grades from both Pipeline and fangrafts, with the fastball and

(32:50):
slider receiving plus grades from Fangraphs. Our own scouts were
even higher on the changeup, calling it a plus pitch
in our Trade Deadline analysis article, Although he's reportedly thrown
it a little bit less since introducing that curveball. There
reports on the curve ball are very good. It's potentially
another above average or plus pitch, and overall, Hageman has

(33:13):
thrown less than forty innings this year. That's a knock
on him, but even then, it's already more than what
he threw in any of his college seasons. So you
got to wonder about the durability, With the injury history,
with the fact that he just hasn't had that many
innings throughout the last few seasons, you wonder how much
his stuff is going to hold up and how much

(33:33):
his durability is going to hold up as he racks
up more and more innings and goes deeper into games.
This is also a college arm that's faced off against
less advanced competition in the low minors. He's probably not
going to be challenged completely until he gets up to
double A. But this is a guy who, like I mentioned,
the more I dug into the Mark side, I became
rushed out and tried to fit him into some of
my rosters where I could add him. Because this is

(33:55):
the potential for four above average to plus pitches, and
with the vastly improve command and control, this looks like
a picture whose stock is really going to skyrocket over
the next calendar year. I'm buying right now. I just
everyone else do the same picking them up. I think
I mentioned right now leads of three hundred plus in
my article, I might even go as aggressive as two

(34:17):
hundred and fifty plus because the fact that I'm as
excited about it as I am you're excited about it,
it might be time to bump up that a little bit.

Speaker 1 (34:24):
But where do you stand on that? Yeah, I really
this call out. As you said, I was adding some
shares earlier today. You were adding some shares earlier today.
That is always a really good sign about the players
that we are discussing. And I have to admit I
overlooked Hegeman as a distant third piece in the deal
that sent him, Cole Drake, and Mitch Bratt to Arizona
in return for Merrill Kelly. And maybe part of that

(34:46):
is the fact that he just hadn't pitched much, so
I wasn't familiar with him yet. But regardless, after digging in,
I think it was a mistake to just discount him
as a distant third here. He might be on a
very similar level to Mitch Bratt at this point, maybe
not quite on Cold Drake's level, although his injury might
pull him down a little bit as well, But regardless,

(35:06):
Hegeman is a much better prospect than I gave him
credit for at the time of the deal. Now, home
runs have been a little bit of a problem for
him so far in HIA. But besides that, there really
isn't much that you can knock in his profile. Like
you said, the stuff looks great. The control was shaky
in college but has been excellent as a pro. He's
getting nearly fifty percent of balls in play hit on

(35:28):
the ground, and there's just not much that you can
really take away from him as far as issues with
the statistical performance here, and Taylor, I'm with you one
hundred percent. You need to up that recommendation a little
bit because a little peak behind the curtains here, I
have him right around two point fifty in my rankings
as of right now. So I'm with you one hundred percent.
I think that is the sweet spot for Hegeman's value

(35:50):
right now.

Speaker 3 (35:51):
All right, I'm gonna make that change for my article there. Perfect.

Speaker 1 (35:55):
It's nice having the late articles on. You get to
make these changes after discussing player. It's perfect.

Speaker 3 (36:01):
I was just gonna say, you usually get to do that,
but now it's my turn.

Speaker 1 (36:04):
It's your turn this week. But Taylor, let's move from
a former Texas Rangers prospect to a current Texas Rangers prospect.
We are going to stay on the mound for Dalton Pence,
a twenty two year old left handed pitcher currently in
Hi A. He's listed at six foot two, two hundred
and fifteen pounds, zero percent rostered on fan tracks and
unranked in our last update. Now between Single A and

(36:27):
Hi A this year, he's pitched seventy four and one
third innings with a two point seven to eight ERA,
zero point nine to three whip, a thirty two and
a half percent carrate, and a seven percent walk rate. Now,
Pence is an interesting story because the Rangers plucked him
out in North Carolina's bullpen in the eleventh round last
year and have slowly transitioned him into a starter. Most

(36:51):
of his outings have been of three or fewer innings,
and most in Single A were actually in relief. But
even then his numbers were in interesting enough to catch
Smata's eye because he highlighted Pence back on June eighteenth
in his p Life plus deep Sea Diving article when
he said Pence was quote unquote very much someone we
need to keep an eye on because if he starts

(37:13):
working past three innings with continued success, we'll need to
jump on him. And the time to jump on him
is here because since his promotion too High A, Pence
has worked primarily in a starting role. He's actually seen
his numbers improve while being stretched out, and his past
three outings have not only been the first three that
he's pitched beyond three innings, but they've all been five

(37:36):
plus innings, including his most recent start on August twenty second,
in which he threw six scoreless innings with ten punch outs. Now,
Pence's fastball stands out more for its metrics than its velocity.
It sits more in the low nineties. It maxes out
around ninety five, but according to Matthew Harris, who you
can find on x at Underscore matt J. Harris Underscore,

(37:59):
the aast ball for Pence has reached upwards of twenty
three inches of ib IVB, which is just an elite marker.
He also mixes in a cutter, change up and breaking ball,
all of which have really improved this year. And while
there's some debate as to whether the breaking ball is
more of a slider or a curve, they can blend
together a little bit. The point being here, all of

(38:20):
his secondaries have also taken a step forward this year,
giving him a legitimate four pitch arsenal of average or
better offerings from the left side. And perhaps the biggest
thing that Pence struggled with in college and what kept
him as a reliever was his command. But that has
taken an even bigger step in pro ball than his
secondaries have, as he's walked just a little bit over

(38:42):
seven percent of opposing batters on the year, and he's
throwing sixty six percent of his pitches for strikes at
this point. Now, other than his short track record of
strong command and even shorter history of throwing more than
three innings, the big knock on Pence from a statistical
standpoint is the home run ball, because, granted he seems
to have solved it a little bit in High A,

(39:04):
he's yet to allow a home run at the level,
but in almost forty innings since the promotion, he's yet
to allow a home run in HIA, but in single
A he was giving up about a one in a
quarter home runs per nine innings and a fifteen point
five percent home run per flyball rate. Now that stems
from the fact that he gets ground balls just around

(39:27):
one third of the time, and because of his arsenal
being most effective when he works up in the zone
with that high riding fastball, He's likely always going to
be a more flyball heavy pitcher and prone to giving
up some home runs, but it's still really nice to
see him eliminate that so far in high A. I
think there's a really interesting kind of deep ish league

(39:48):
ad here anywhere with four hundred plus prospects Rostered and Taylor.
I know that you had your eye on him as
well if I hadn't written about him this week, so
I'm interested to get your thoughts on Dalton Pence.

Speaker 2 (40:00):
Yeah, I agree with pretty much everything you said. I
think he's super interesting. One thing that's funny is that
his ERA is at two point seven eight on the year,
which is really good. His fip's even better at two
point seven two, so if anything, he's gotten just the
slightest bit unlucky, but just a really great performance this year.
Really like to see him getting stretched out and seeing
the performance even increase from there.

Speaker 3 (40:21):
The only thing holding.

Speaker 2 (40:22):
Me back is, like you said, it's more of a
back end profile, maybe like a fourth or fifth starter.
This isn't a really super high ceiling, so that's gonna
keep it more of the like a deep league type
pickup for me. But I think it's an interesting pickup
in those deeper leagues where you know pitching is valuable,
particularly like a points league or something like that. I
think this is a guy that you want to go
after because I think there's a really good likelihood that

(40:44):
this is a pretty solid starter in the future, if
not one with a really high seiling.

Speaker 3 (40:49):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (40:49):
Absolutely, I think that's a great point that this is
someone to really look at in points leagues, but definitely
more of a deep league name.

Speaker 3 (40:56):
Definitely.

Speaker 1 (40:57):
All right, Taylor, let's get into your second name here,
and let's start discussing some bats.

Speaker 2 (41:03):
Yeah, so I'm going to talk about Sterling Thompson, so
twenty four year old outfielder in the Rockies organization at
Triple A, listed at sixty three, two hundred pounds, left
handed hitter, nine percent rostered on fan track, so he's
quite a bit more roster than the guys we've talked
about so far. I think a big part of that
is he actually had a breakout campaign in twenty twenty
three where he posted a one twenty nine WRC plus.

(41:24):
That sort of brought him really high on prospect lists
and he kept stayed around on prospect lists since then.
He was the thirty first overall pick in the twenty
twenty two draft, and at the time that he had
his breakout in twenty twenty three, I was really buying in,
so he was a guy I was pretty excited about,
had a lot of shares of heading into twenty twenty four.
I ranked him at one to eighty five in my

(41:46):
initial rankings when we first started at Prospects Live. But
he started to fall really quickly because the performance really
fell off a cliff in twenty twenty four, and by
June of twenty twenty four he was off my rankings altogether.
He debuted really high and then didn't stick around very long.
And it was more of the same this year because
Thompson got off to a really slow start, had just

(42:07):
a twenty nine WRC plus through the end of April,
but things changed in early May because Thompson has posted
a three thirty one four twenty five five eighty eight
slash since May first, with a one to forty WRC plus,
And it turns out that coincides with the swing adjustment
in early May that Kylie McDaniel actually had a pretty
good Twitter post about earlier on this month. As a

(42:29):
result of the increased performance, Thompson's broken back into my
rankings four h two in June three ninety eight in July.
He's going to move even higher in our upcoming rankings
as well, now that I'm aware of the swing change.
And not just that, but he's been really hot in August.
Since August first, Thompson's put up a four to twenty
one five twenty nine, seven to fifty four slash, fourteen

(42:49):
point three percent walk rate, just a fifteen point seven
percent strikeout rate through eighteen games. He's posted solid stackcast
data in his Triple A tenure this year, posting above
average marks in most areas, including a seventy first percentile
ninety eight x velocity in a sixty eighth percentile chase rate.
But despite the improvements, it's fair to wonder how much
impact Thompson can have. Our scouting team gave him pretty

(43:12):
bad grades this offseason. They gave him a forty five hit,
forty power, fifty run, thirty five field, so not a
lot to love there. And there might be obviously some
limited roto and category upside based on the fact that
he's got blow average power And even with the adjustment,
it's not like he's hitting a ton of home runs.
He's running less this year, so the average speed is

(43:34):
not really gonna maybe make too much of an impact
in stolen basis, and I think the biggest thing is
the thirty five grade fielding that's really going to limit
his opportunities moving forward. The one thing I'm hoping is
that as he's raised the ball a little bit more,
which even though the ground ball rate is forty seven
point six percent on the year, it is lowering after

(43:56):
his swing change. He does have a one to twelve
point nine MAXIV, so he does have a little bit
of raw power there. If he can get into more
raw power, I think that is going to be the
key to his fantasy success in category leagues. But I
think this is a guy that you really want to
look at more points leagues because he doesn't strike out
a lot. He has a pretty good approach when things

(44:17):
are on and I think this is one where you
put him in Coors with the Babbitt boost, I think
this could be a pretty valuable player potentially for deeper
points leagues, but again there's a lot of sort of
ifs and stipulations in this profile, and for that reason,
he's mostly a pick up for me in deeper leagues

(44:38):
where proximity is important. Again, points leagues where his lack
of power speed upside doesn't hurt him too much. So
in those leagues, I think he's a pickup in leagues
of three and a fifty plus prospects rostered, but really
curious to hear your thoughts on Thompson.

Speaker 1 (44:54):
Yeah, I was really not aware that he was having
this kind of a season, and that's probably because his
march in April were just absolutely dreadful and his line
looked really rough for so long. But he has really
turned things around now. His approach and contact rates, despite
the overall numbers that he's showing with regards to them,
they're still more good than great. It's not necessarily a problem,

(45:17):
as you said, especially in coors where you get that
babbit boost. But the near fifty percent ground ball rate
is one thing that I am looking at that gives
me true reason for pause here, because those are the
kind of balls in play that really aren't going to
get much of a boost from Cores. I still really
this call out. I think he's absolutely someone that needs
to be moving up our ranks a little bit and

(45:37):
maybe back into our ranks for those of us that
have taken him off. But as you mentioned, it's still
a little bit more of a deep league name, but
one that I'm excited to see right about for this
weekend because I want to hear a little bit more
of your thoughts and I want to see kind of
what you know, exactly what you think of him, more
so than even just this conversation, because I do think
that he's an interesting name, but as you said, probably

(46:01):
still more of a deep league consideration at this point.

Speaker 3 (46:04):
Yeah, definitely it's worth mentioning.

Speaker 2 (46:05):
In that tweet from Kylie McDaniel that was August fourteenth,
he talked about the splits before and after May ninth,
and the fact that before May ninth, Thompson had a
groundball rate of fifty five percent and after it was
down forty three percent, So that forty seven percent on
the year. A lot of that is prior to the

(46:26):
swing change. But I completely agree with you. He doesn't
walk a ton, so he doesn't strike out a ton.
Or at least hasn't since the swing change. The contact, though,
like you said, is more good than great. So he's
one where again a lot has to break his way,
and the fact that he's not a good defender is
really gonna be a problem, particularly an organization like the Rockies,

(46:47):
who you never know quite what they're gonna do and
how much run they're gonna give these prospects, So not
one I can push up too much higher, But I
do think based on the nine percent roster ship, based
on the fact that he's knocking on the door to bigs,
I think three hundred fifty plus prospects if you need
a proximity guy, and again a higher endorsement four points leagues,
I think it makes sense.

Speaker 1 (47:07):
Yeah, I think that's a great call out. And like
you said that three fifty plus, I think I have
him right around three seventy five to four hundred. So
I'm right with you there.

Speaker 3 (47:15):
Awesome, Glad to hear it.

Speaker 1 (47:16):
All Right, let's get into my final name today. Another
bat here, and I'm looking at esmil Valencia of the
Miami Marlin system, nineteen year old outfielder currently in single A,
listed at five foot ten, one hundred and eighty two pounds,
one percent rostered on fan tracks and currently unranked at
Prospects Live. In one hundred games this year, coming into today,

(47:38):
he was slashing two eighty three point thirty nine three
ninety nine with eight home runs sixty one stolen bases.
So keep that in mind because this is a speedstert
with Valencia. Despite some of the tool grades that you
see out there, he doesn't typically get great grades on
his speed, but it is impressive. It's a twenty two
percent strikeout rate and a seven percent walker for Valencia

(48:00):
as well. And he was part of the package that
Miami got from Houston in return for Jesu Sanchez. And
when Reese White recapped all of the players moved at
the deadline, he said Esmil Valencia is speed and called
him a pretty awesome third piece to this deal. And
I have to agree that this was a pretty awesome
third piece to get for Jesu Sanchez because he has

(48:21):
been absolutely on fire since joining the Marlins organization with
a three point fifty three three ninety seven five eighty
eight triple slash along with three home runs and eleven
stolen bases, just a thirteen percent k rate and a
nine percent walk rate in his seventeen games with the
new organization. And the best part about this move to

(48:43):
the Marlins, in my opinion, is the fact that he
now plays in the Florida State League, which means we
get bat at ball Dad afore him and it looks
fantastic over the past few weeks. His average exit velocity
of eighty seven miles per hour is right around average
for the level, but his ninetieth percentilev of one oh
five and his max of one twelve are both easy

(49:04):
plus marks for the level. His air poll rate, his
hard hit rate, barrel rate, sweet spot rates, they are
all over seventieth percentile in single A and that all
backs up to strong exit velocities. So this means that
not only is s Mil Valencia speed as re said,
but he is also power. And when you mix in

(49:25):
the first line of MLB pipeline scouting report on him,
which reads one thing is certain Valencia can hit, it
sure sounds like this could be the whole package. So
why isn't he more well known and discussed more? For that,
we really have to look at his approach because he
is very aggressive and his approach sees him swing at
fifty percent of more than fifty percent fifty four percent

(49:48):
of pitches overall, and he chases nearly forty percent of
pitches out of the zone. Now, despite that fact, he
has kept his k rate below twenty five percent on
the AAR and just barely over ten percent since being traded.
His contact rates they haven't been fantastic even in zone,
so I think the solid strikeout numbers are more a
product of his ultra aggression than a true showing of

(50:11):
his contact skills. But all that being said, I think
an improved approach here would go a long way in
helping him unlock another level, because, as I said, MLB
Pipeline led off their scouting report by saying one thing
is certain, Valencia can hit. So if Valencia can improve
that approach, he can unlock another level here. And while
the Marlins aren't necessarily the most trusted organization for hitting development,

(50:34):
they have been showing signs of improvement as of late.
So I am optimistic about Valencia's future, and I think
he could be worth an ad in leagues with three
hundred and fifty plus prospects rostered. But Taylor, I can
see this being a very polarizing prospect, so I am
really interested to hear your thoughts on him.

Speaker 2 (50:52):
This is such a bizarre prospect because I don't think
I've ever seen a prospect where the scouting report in
the stats are so at odds. Yes, because you look
at his scouting reports and it's like above average hitter,
but he has a terrible aggressive approach and his contact
rates are bad. So so good hit tool, but like

(51:16):
bad approach and contact. He's hitting three hundred, but he's
hitting three hundred. I think it's like the aggressive approach,
the massive chase, the low contact rates. Yeah, it just
it doesn't make sense. Then on top of that, you
have the fact that he's stolen sixty bases with fringe
average or average running grades as well, so the run

(51:37):
grades don't make sense, the hit tool grade doesn't really
make sense. The power grades are pretty low, but like
you said, he's showing great raw power. So it's just
one of those where it just I don't know what
to make at this guy. If it all comes together,
you've got good hit tool, some power.

Speaker 3 (51:56):
Some speed.

Speaker 2 (51:57):
I think in a ceiling perspective, I think there's a
lot to like here, but there's a lot of work
that needs to be done to get there, and I
think it's just like how much can Miami mold that
Clay into helping him reach that ceiling. And I know
a lot of people are like, yeah, Miami's made all

(52:18):
these changes, Miami's a better development organization now, and they
very well might be, but I'm still not buying them
as a good hitter development organization because we just have
not seen it. Yes, maybe some they've had success with
some of these guys that they've taken at Triple A,
and they've had success in the majors. That's awesome, but

(52:38):
they have not had that success with hitters in the
low minors to this point, and haven't had that success
for years and years. So until I see that, I'm
not going to buy into it. It's like a pitching
prospect in the Rockies organization, I got to see it first.
With a hitter in the Marlins organization, I got to
see it first. And so for those reasons, I'm just

(52:58):
I don't think I'm going to be as high Valencia
as you are, but I see the appeal because again,
there's potential plus raw power there. There's certainly a lot
of speed. Despite what his grades say, there at least
the ability to steal bases, and there's presumably an above
average hit tool there, but it just it's all confusing.

Speaker 1 (53:18):
Yeah, it's a very perplexing profile, because, like you said,
you can look at the scouting grades and take pieces
of that out. You can look at the numbers and
take pieces of that out, and this looks like the
total package. But when you put the entire picture together,
it just gives you a lot more question marks than answers.
And I think that's what makes him so polarizing in
such a difficult prospect to value. I'm definitely going to

(53:42):
have him in my ranks coming up. Do you think
you'll at least have him inside your four fifty for
these ranks or is he such a tough one to
value that he's going to be sitting outside of those
numbers for you.

Speaker 2 (53:52):
I think I'm gonna put him in my four to fifty.
I think there's enough intrigue there that if it all clicks,
I could see this really being impactful.

Speaker 3 (53:58):
It's worth noting.

Speaker 2 (53:59):
I did read an interview, I think with his current
coach where he said, as mil Valenci is the fastest
player on the team, and this is a team. I
think that had like Dylan Head and some other speedstirs
on it. I definitely think those run and grades are
taken with a grain assault there, or maybe take the
coach's comments with a grain assault because he might have
just been trying to pump up his player. But the
other thing that came out of that interview is he

(54:19):
said Valencia is a really good defensive center fielder that
hasn't again really matched up to the scouting reports, but
he has played primarily center field and is one of
those things where if he is a good center fielder,
that's really gonna help the profile long term as well.
We're talking about if everything goes well, a five tool
player here, and I think that Andy's hot right now.

(54:40):
I think that's worth putting into the top four to
fifty for sure.

Speaker 1 (54:43):
Yeah, And I think that's the big thing for me
is he has just looked so good since the trade.
I'll read those numbers off again because they're incredibly impressive.
Three point fifty three, three ninety seven five eighty eight
thirteen percent, K eight nine percent walk right again. I
think the big thing for him, and I think this
will even help with the contact, is just raining in

(55:04):
the approach, because if he can do that, he's not
only going to stop swinging at pitches or as many
pitches out of the zone, but I think he's going
to become more selective in the zone and swing it better,
hitters pitches where I can't remember who, but we talked
about it with someone last week as well. Chances are,
when your swing rate is that high, you are swinging
at even in zone, a lot of pitchers pitches around

(55:25):
the edges that you're just not going to be able
to do a lot of damage with. So if he
brings in that approach a little bit, I think the
whole profile could really take off. Again, how much do
we trust the Marlins to do that? They're showing signs
of life. We haven't seen it in the big leagues yet,
so you really have to weigh both sides of that.
It's an interesting profile, but that's gonna make for interesting

(55:46):
ranks here to round things out, because before we get going,
we do need to rank these players that we recommended today, Taylor,
So how would you rank David Hageman, Dalton Pence, Sterlin
Thompson and Smeil Valencia.

Speaker 3 (55:58):
Yeah, I think there's a clear Noumber one here, and
that's Hageman.

Speaker 2 (56:01):
Sterlink. Thompson is going to be number two. He's the
most roster out of all these guys. He's also the
closest to the bigs. I'm putting Valencia at three and
Pence at four. I think Valencia and Pence are relatively close,
but I think Valencia just has the higher ceiling, and
I'm always gonna lean ceiling in most dynasty leagues.

Speaker 1 (56:17):
Yeah, I'm with you one hundred percent here, right down
to the logic behind it. Hageman's the easy number one.
I've got all of Thompson, Valencia, and Pence relatively close.
Thompson's proximity and the strides that he's made this year
bump him a little bit ahead, but Valencia is upside
definitely puts him over Pence. I think, regardless, though you

(56:39):
nailed the rankings, I can't remember the last time we
disagreed on these rankings.

Speaker 3 (56:45):
Yeah it is, but yeah, we get some group think
going here.

Speaker 1 (56:49):
We got to start disagreeing on more of these players again.

Speaker 3 (56:52):
Taylor, definitely all right.

Speaker 1 (56:54):
That is everything we have for you guys today. Thank
you all for joining us. Make sure you tune in
next week and give us a follow while you are
at it. You can find me at Sonny Underscore one
eight on X and Sonny one O eight on Blue Sky,
and you can find Taylor at Dynasty Pickups on both.
You can also get a hold of us with all
of your Dynasty Baseball questions at Dynasty Baseball Pickups at

(57:17):
gmail dot com. All of that contact info will also
be posted in the show notes, and as always, please
consider subscribing to Prospects Live for as little as five
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(57:38):
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