Caucus returns for Election 2020 talking about the state of the parties, Covid debt and problems with our political culture.
By Tim Watkin
Campaigns. Culture. Character. And perhaps most of all, Covid-19. As the House rises today and politicians hit the road to pitch their woo to voters, those issues will be front of mind for the candidates.
They were also where the new season of politics podcast Caucus began today. This year RNZ journalists Guyon Espiner, Lisa Owen and Tim Watkin are joined by former Gallery reporter, political commentator and strategic advisor, Scott Campbell.
Labour heads into campaign season with a huge lead in recent polls, which have the party 20-25 points ahead of National, and widely regarded as a safe pair of hands amidst a global crisis. A party looking to take a transformative path couldn't hope for a bigger or better opportunity; the only time Labour has ever won more than 50 percent of the vote was in 1938, when (like today) a popular Prime Minister was looking for a second term in troubled times. In that case it was Michael Joseph Savage and Labour used its political power to introduce the Social Security Act, complete with free healthcare, benefit extensions and superannuation.
Sure, this is MMP and modern Labour has a larger cast of parties to deal with. But whereas New Zealand First and the Greens combined ended up with nearly 20 percent of the vote in 2017, at this stage of the cycle they are polling at under 10 percent. Often under MMP the vote has shuffled around between parties on the left and right, only crossing the centre line now and then. But recent polls suggest Labour is gobbling up those swing voters at the moment, with one poll of polls having it on 55.6 percent.
This Labour Party, however, has spent recent days signalling we are in the midst of a once-in-a-century pandemic and playing down any talk of once-in-century reforms. "I would flag to voters not to expect to see large scale manifestoes that are a significant departure from what we're doing," Ardern told Morning Report this week. Hardly a Savage-esque response. More in line with Ardern's cautious political instincts.
Espiner pointed out that Labour is looking to govern rather than campaign its way to election day, and as Campbell said, 'why wouldn't they?'. Given National's recent disarray and the minor parties battle with the five percent threshold, Labour's biggest is risk is over-reach and some sort of own-goal…
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