Wealth, weight, winners and the dumbest thing I’ve ever heard

Two days out, we hear surprise calls on wealth taxes and obesity and the Caucus crew debate the seats to watch, highs and lows, winners and losers. And we put our picks in an envelope.

By Tim Watkin

Watch the video version of the episode here

Whenever Sir Edmund Hillary was asked about whether he thought George Mallory might have beat him to the top of Mt Everest in the 1920s, he would point out that part of being a successful mountaineer was making it back down. Sports people are quick to tell you it doesn't matter if you lead for 79 minutes if you're behind when the final whistle blows. The National Party seems to have missed that memo, however. After the first half of the campaign went better than they expected, the wheels have started to fall off. In the past two weeks, Judith Collins has turned into something of a snowball, crashing down the mountain of this campaign.

That's commentary on National's unravelling campaign strategy, not on the National leader's weight. Because who would be mad enough to make weight an issue in the final week of an election campaign, right? Who would insult people for not staying on top of their obesity, when they are trying to win an election? As it turns out, that'd be Judith Collins.

National tried for a big shake-up last week, opting to go negative, go hard and go late, you might say. Collins called Labour's Jacinda Ardern a liar on border testing and attacked the Green Party's proposed 1 percent wealth tax on freehold assets over a million dollars. But as the Caucus crew unpack in this week's podcast, it's backfired.

It felt like a desperate play, as most voters care more about keeping their job through Covid-19 and whether Nana will stay safe than some complex new tax for the 6 percent of richest New Zealanders proposed by a party that may or may not make it back to Parliament. But at first it got the desired result, as Labour said 'heck no' and the Greens said 'hell yes'. Doubt was raised and those middle class voters enamoured of Ardern and New Zealand's Covid response had reason to pause for thought.

Then yesterday Jacinda Ardern staked her prime ministership on not introducing a wealth tax and the issue evaporated. As Guyon Espiner says, Labour potentially does best out of the wealth tax debate, showing voters who's in charge and taking the most controversial part of any potential Labour-Greens government off the table. The Greens benefit from more oxygen, a chance to mention their transport, oceans and poverty policies - solar panels on state houses, anyone? - and to remind voters of their key message: They will try to push Labour 'farther and faster'…

Go to this episode on rnz.co.nz for more details