I WAS WRONG About Oil & Gas (Part 1) | SDITalk.com/317

News flash: I was wrong. There’s one asset class that I’ve never embraced and certainly never invested in because it is, I convinced myself, incredibly risky. Well, I was wrong. I’ll tell you HOW I was wrong… and the upside potential of this asset class RIGHT NOW in Episode #317 of Self-Directed Investor Talk.

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Hello, Self-Directed Investors, all across the fruited plane. Welcome to Episode #317 of Self-Directed Investor Talk, the SHOW OF RECORD for savvy self-directed investors like you, and today we have an excellent show for you.

Our telephone number here for you folks that have questions is easy to remember: 833-212-2112. And that’s also our TEXT number, too… because if you’d like a link to the recording of this show or to the transcript – maybe to review for yourself or forward to a friend of yours, it’s very easy to get that and costs nothing other than normal message and data rates. Just text today’s episode number – 317 – to 833-212-2112 and we’ll send those links out to you right away.

The asset class we consider today isn’t a new one, but it’s still a sexy one. Two of the most famous TV shows of the 1980’s – Dallas and Dynasty – were based on the immense wealth created by this asset class, and the frankly, the money involved in this arena has done nothing but get bigger and bigger and bigger.

That asset class is, of course, the oil & gas industry.

Now look… I’ve never invested a single penny in this asset class. I have no experience with it. None. My interest in it is solely because a friend of mine for whom I have great respect, and whose acumen as an investor is absolutely first-rate, and has been so consistently for many years now… well, he reached out to me as he does from time to time for help with raising some capital for a project of his. Given his success, I always take such calls quite seriously, but this time, his latest project stopped me cold: He wants to do a big oil & gas investment, and he wants me to help him raise money for that investment.

Normally, I’d turn down the request just because I think oil & gas is so risky. But I had to give him a fair hearing because of his track record. And I’ve got to say… I think I may have been operating under some faulty assumptions for a long time.

I’m still doing my research, but here’s what I’ve found out so far:

First, risk doesn’t exist in a vacuum in the oil business. I mean that, by and large, it’s relatively simple to know in advance, through the use of modern science, whether a particular high-risk, high-reward new oil well might be a total dud. In other words, if you’re careful, it’s not extremely likely you’ll ever be taken by surprise if you invest in a new well that ends up being unproductive. You’ll know going in about your odds of success, and you can likely mitigate that risk in several different ways, which leads to

The Second point, which is this: Risk mitigation is the key in oil & gas. It appears that the “smart money” in that business mitigates their up-front risk by a combination of careful and aggressive investment in the geological research necessary to make well-informed predictions, and by always spreading risk around by way of investing in not just one and only one oil well, but in MANY oil wells, so that the failure of any one can be overtaken, probably in substantial volume, by the other more successful wells.

Now those first two bits of learning are helpful and useful but not overwhelmingly surprising. But these last two points, I never would have guessed. And I’ll tell you what they are in about 45 seconds from now, when we return from this quick word from our sponsor.

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