#638: Q1 2025 Monetary Base Update with Matthew Mežinskis

Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:00):
You've had a dynamic where money has become freer than free.

(00:10):
You talk about a Fed just gone nuts.
All the central banks going nuts.
So it's all acting like safe haven.
I believe that in a world where central bankers are tripping over themselves to devalue their currency,
Bitcoin wins.
In the world of fiat currencies, Bitcoin is the victor.
I mean, that's part of the bull case for Bitcoin.

(00:31):
If you're not paying attention, you probably should be.
Mr. Mazingtious, are you ready to turn it on turbo?
I am, my friend. Let's go deep.
Always happy to be here with you, chatting base money and other things.
Yeah, well, we're going to turn it on turbo during this conversation,

(00:53):
but it seems like the U.S. government is going to turn it on turbo.
We're going to outgrow the debt. It's happening.
Are you let down?
Were you enticed by the MAGA fever last fall
and now feel fully let down to a situation
that was perfectly predictable to most of us?

(01:13):
Hand up.
I did have some optimism.
I mean, cautiously optimistic.
I think I was, and I think publicly on the record,
cautiously optimistic.
It seemed, in retrospect, it seemed,
good to be cautious because
it didn't turn out too great. It gave

(01:34):
somewhat of an effort. I don't know if it was an earnest effort
with Doge. I think in the beginning, people were excited
to see that a lot of the waste, fraud, and grift was being
unearthed by the Department of Government Efficiency, but
rather quickly, it turned for the worse.

(01:55):
And I think as Lynn Alden's been saying for years and as we've been discussing for years, there's no stopping this train.
Well, let me give you a little bit different perspective here from Eastern Europe, perhaps, as I do.
We're not going to go too political.
You know that war in Ukraine is always top of mind, but I'll start.

(02:17):
But as has been the case with my monetary base research, my power curve research for over seven years, I know people don't like a gloating sort of picture, but we've been promised hyper Bitcoinization.
We've been promised super exponential growth.

(02:41):
I've been trying to ground people in the realities of the research that I have done.
For about seven years, seven, eight years.
And then we have situations like what happened in Ukraine.
Very much a free country.
Who's has basically slaves trying to liberate it.

(03:06):
You just look at a town in Eastern Ukraine, which has been liberated by Russia and it's complete rubble.
right now I'm on the border of the European Union,
former Soviet Union,
and it is super dicey still.
Europe does have to step up.
I will give Trump credit for lighting a fire under Europe's ass.

(03:32):
But, you know,
everybody that's been supporting a strong traditional free world,
uh, IE with, you know, national defense, both in the U S's case or in Europe's case,
we're working together. Uh, I notice with not happy, uh, I'm not happy to gloat about this,

(03:57):
but if you look at the Trump rhetoric from the campaign trail about the Ukraine war saying,
I will end this war in 24 hours, said it multiple times. I will end this war in 24 hours.
he said in the early days he said i believe i have the power to end this war he also said

(04:18):
zelensky who everybody in the bitcoin maga camp loves to hate is a dictator
saying nothing about the 25-year dictator of latimer putin
he said zelensky started the war in ukraine this is trump trying to bend his ass over for putin

(04:41):
and uh create a great peaceful dialogue putin has done the exact same thing that all of us in
eastern europe have been saying since the beginning for three years and this is not just a trump thing
this goes back to the biden thing too you're happy traditional republicans had the door wide open to
go back to what they do best, which is national defense. And this is not invade Iraq situation.

(05:04):
This is defending the free world. And let's not forget how Russia invaded Ukraine under the Obama
administration, invaded Ukraine again under the Biden administration. This was teed up perfectly
for a normal Republican administration. But instead, you goofy Americans, and I'm sorry to

(05:29):
say this, I know it's not you directly, Marty, but a lot of people that are in the MAGA Bitcoin
FU camp to every centrist. All you had to do was be strong. You didn't even have to send troops to
Ukraine. All you had to do was be strong, send patriots, send missiles. In fact, if they had

(05:51):
gotten max weapons three years ago, the war could have been over in two fucking weeks.
I've said it from the beginning. I'll continue to say it. And where are we after all this fucking
bullshit? Where are we right now? Trump sat there yesterday for the third time reversing his moron

(06:11):
defense secretary pete hegseth and this eldritch colby guy's decision the third time reversing
their decisions about not defending ukraine because ukraine is getting pummeled now because
they don't have the patriots oh it's tough to be right it's tough to be right i'm sorry to say this

(06:33):
But there is a proper way to deal with asshole bully dictators.
It's not to call the good side a dictator corrupt.
It's to deal with the 25-year dictator in the autocratic communist country.
All right, that's my soapbox.

(06:53):
I've talked about this many times on our quarterly updates.
And here's my latest.
That seems like you were right.
And it seems like Trump in the last week, I think I've seen the headlines.
I will admit I have not had my finger on the pulse of social media and the geopolitical macroeconomic and the geopolitics.

(07:15):
I've been following macro more.
Take Twitter off your phone.
It's even better.
Yes.
I did put it on for Bitcoin.
BTC Prague.
I put it back on and need to take it off again.
It's like like a drug.
Yeah.
It seems like Trump is making about an about face.
I think it was yesterday, the day before, he said he wants to send more missiles.
But what's the point?
What's the point?
We're wasting time.
We wasted time.

(07:36):
All I'm saying is, look, this is a centrist, normal issue.
It's way bigger.
Like, we're talking defense, a free world versus a dictatorship.
We don't have to even go into it.
I just wanted to say this piece, just like the power curve, which we're going to talk about,
just like base money which we're going to talk about just like rational data-driven uh centrist

(08:03):
it can be free market theory but let's not go into looney tunes theory of something that's like
not grounded in any reality it's like it's it's a lot of it is you know this sort of uh
The hopium that's in the Bitcoin community is great at times, but you got to be grounded in reality, situational ground the data.

(08:30):
Bitcoin's not going to a million dollars tomorrow.
Enjoy it.
It's a great asset to protect you from your wealth.
and there is no salvation in a fucking 25 year former communist dictatorship vladimir putin
fucking shithole country there's a death cult is an absolute death cult listen to people in eastern

(08:55):
europe i'm on my soapbox marty i love it i'm sorry it's it's very it's very angry gloating i
mean i i'm not happy about it we're back to where we were republicans i'm with everybody here if
you're a tucker carlson fan who's done his own about face uh he was a big cheerleader of the
iraq war i was never for the iraq war but if you're anti-irac war i don't know how you can

(09:18):
be pro-putin war like tucker carlson is now just fucking moron all right that's it that's it for me
they'll see how many hate hate mail comments you get yeah it'll be fine
don't send the hate comments freaks it's all right i don't care i don't care you might care

(09:38):
actually but i was telling you i i met uh yael what's the last name osaki uh osowski
osowski great dude great dude no we had a conversation about this too it is and that's
but I think my conversations with you over the last three and a half years,

(09:59):
which is crazy to think it's going on this long.
I told him,
it's just like,
yeah,
like I don't,
I'm not right there in Eastern Europe.
So I do trust your,
your perspective on this more than probably the mainstream media.
I would,
I'll,
I'll buy a beer to any Bitcoiner that comes to the Baltic Honey Badger.

(10:19):
One of the best OG Bitcoin conferences in August.
I'll be there as I always am.
I'll buy you a beer
if you want to challenge our views
we are not going back
under the fucking shitty Russian
tyranny
not going to happen
but it's going to be harder
if the West
I'd say particularly America

(10:41):
Europe has to do more
100% Europe has to do more
Western Europe needs to get their head out of their ass
as far as all the woke shit still
but
you know
I would say we need America. We need a strong, we need a strong America to not look only inward.

(11:04):
I'm specifically talking about defense. I'm not talking about, you know, all the other stuff that
Musk was working on with those. There's plenty of legitimate debate there. I'm just talking about
the real world of autocrats versus democracies.
And democracy is not that bad of a word.

(11:24):
And yes, Yael is a great person as far as he's got a great
historical knowledge on liberal democracy.
I think he's the deputy chair of the Consumer Choice Center.
If you're curious, people, they do great research.
He lives in Europe.
Consumer Choice Center is actually headquartered in D.C., I believe.

(11:45):
yeah man
it's tough days
it's not going to get any easier
Bitcoin's a great hedge
for all this stuff but
we're not going to be at a million dollar Bitcoin tomorrow
and all like moving to the Caribbean
that's what Samson Mal told me though
well he's got his agenda

(12:07):
we all got our agendas
the Omega Candle's coming
and it might
it might
it might let's jump into that and for those curious about yael i'll actually be recording
with him two days from now that'll be on next week if you're listening to it bring my bring

(12:28):
my fervor for defending the free world to that conversation bring it yeah what is um
bring this back to the monetary side of things and the other one of the many other disappointments
of this Trump administration.
Take the good with the bad.
I mean, I'm giving.

(12:48):
It's like...
Is the strategic reserve
happening, my friend?
I don't know.
I made some bets around that.
I'm probably going to lose.
Really? What were the bets?
I mean, via executive order, it does technically
exist right now, but
is it enshrined into law? No.

(13:11):
The priorities
are all out of whack here.
They wanted to focus on stable coins market structure before a Bitcoin strategic reserve, which I would argue is probably more pressing, more of a pressing need for the federal government.
That is $37 trillion in debt and is explicitly telling the American public and the global public that they are going to turn the spending on turbo in an attempt to outgrow the debt.

(13:40):
And that's the other thing I wanted to bring up.
From an economic landscape here in the United States, now globally,
I'd be interested to get your thoughts on the emergence and proliferation,
acceleration of artificial intelligence and the effects that may or may not be having
on the economy and the potential effects it could have in the future.

(14:04):
where it seems like we have this,
depending on who you ask, I'm pretty convinced it's happening.
We have this emergence of this technology
that will lead to economic productivity growth
on the scale of the industrial and digital revolution,
the internet revolution.
And is that potential for increased productivity,

(14:28):
abundance, and wealth enough
to have people focus away from war
and towards free trade and competition in markets.
I don't know.
I have all the thoughts I have all the thoughts What are your thoughts there Big meme right now Big theme I think that we find the paradigm shift and we grow into the next spot

(14:52):
Not going to grow out of the debt,
but that's actually not the main issue.
We'll talk about it.
So you know I've been doing this power curve work, right?
And we'll talk about it.
I think actually your show I showed it the first.
uh although i i first tweeted about it in like 2018 and this giovanni uh fellow who's kind of

(15:14):
wraps his name around that on twitter people might have seen him a bit cantankerous but uh
he uh he quoted uh power he observed that bitcoin was following a power
regression more than an exponential regression in september 2018 i did in december 2018
he did it on reddit i did it on twitter i was uh following this uh trolo lo lo is an old

(15:41):
og account on bitcoin talk he was visualizing bitcoin in a logarithmic regression which is
actually like very fast super exponential growth at the beginning and then levels off but um
the there's a book by the guy's name is jeffrey west it's called scale it's a very good book

(16:06):
statistician uh looked at a lot of data he's talking about he wrote it about 10 years ago
and you might remember marty at the time there was a lot of talk 10 years ago about the singularity
ray kurzweil was talking about this right there's a lot of definitions of what that kind of
means. But Jeffrey West talked about the singularity and he was looking at the growth,

(16:34):
like long-term growth. We talk about growth trajectories. It's all that I do on my channel,
actually. I make trends. I draw trend lines. I try to put things in perspective. I try to
see where the growth is going, right? We can look at some charts, but
the general idea is we probably are increasing the rate of exponential growth

(16:58):
during certain key changes in our civilization, right? So we, before the industrial age,
we were moving a bit slower before the printing press age, we were moving a bit slower than that,
you know, before whatever it might've been agriculture, we were moving a little bit
slower than that, the farther back you go. And when we've added these new levels of innovation,

(17:22):
we're still on exponential growth, right? Which is just constant growth. So you think about
population growth, 2% a year, although that's slowing down actually a little bit. When you get
richer, generally that slows down. But economies grow 3% to 5% a year, stock market grows 7% to 9%

(17:42):
a year. If you invest your dividends, it might be a little bit more reinvest your dividends.
Bonds can grow five to 10% a year. Just rough. I'm just talking rough stuff, right?
But the further back in time you go, those percentages were a little bit lower. So it's
still constant for a time, but then we reach a new sort of epoch. We reach whatever it was,

(18:04):
if it was the industrial revolution, if it was the digital revolution, you know,
And the fiat revolution is a part of it too, right?
It confuses the picture, right?
Because we went off gold 50 years ago, 55 years ago.
So we force ourselves with this new growth.
We have better stuff.
Clearly, some people have better stuff.

(18:25):
There's a lot of cross currents.
We have, as you know, and your listeners know, we have a lot of money printing, a lot of
distortion, a lot of central banking issues.
But generally, we're moving from a situation where we have constant growth here.
and then you know 50 years ago because of fiat we might go here and then digital revolution we
go a little bit here and now we have ai like you said we have bitcoin so we're we're slowly sort

(18:47):
of increasing that that curve right over a period of like an undefined period it could be
20 years could be 50 years could be 100 years it depends right but it seems like
you look at the last couple hundred years from the industrial revolution it seems like those
cycles are getting more compacted, right? Like when you and I were kids, I'm a little bit older

(19:11):
than you, but I mean, I remember my dad in his first laptop in the nineties, big fat thing, slow,
you know, 500 and whatever, you know, megabytes of memory, like very, just everybody knows the
story. Now here we are, you know, 30 years later and we have pretty amazing large language model

(19:34):
tools and all the rest. So time is compressing and the growth is going faster.
What Jeffrey West talks about in his book is that when you start layering these things on,
if we would just do it mathematically,
we have to keep going. He uses the analogy of a treadmill. Like so 200 years ago,

(20:00):
we're on this treadmill. But then as we improve, we move to another treadmill. It's a little bit
faster, but we have to jump off that treadmill. And if people don't come with you, you're left
behind. It's a good analogy, right? So you jump off, you go onto the other treadmill,
older generations die, whatever it is. And you move and move and move.
Theoretically, if we go on this super exponential growth, people jump onto a new treadmill every

(20:22):
new generation. And that generation is getting more, you know, that time dilation is getting
smaller and smaller, but between the times we need to jump onto the new treadmill.
At some point, we're getting to a singularity. He calls it. It's not the Ray Kurzweil singularity,
it's just a mathematical singularity where it's an impossibility to grow anymore.
And from that point, it's a very interesting question. He kind of leaves it open in his book.

(20:45):
He wrote this book 10 years ago. I don't know his latest thoughts on how that all
is sort of going to evolve. But the basic, and Bitcoin was in its nascency 10 years ago,
by the way. So I don't know if he has thoughts about how that goes, but my general thinking is
we have a few more treadmills to jump to, but we're probably very close to jumping to another

(21:16):
treadmill, whether that is moving on to a Bitcoin standard, which again, as I just talked about at
stop of the show. I don't think it happens all at once. I think it'll be something gradually,
like either central banks or treasuries start reserving Bitcoin, certain economies start using
Bitcoin. I think that gold will also play a part of it. Don't forget, there's $4 trillion in

(21:39):
central banks right now, today, because of the gold appreciation. There's only $50 billion worth
of Bitcoin in governments. So $4 trillion versus $50 billion. We got some time. Everybody's excited,
but we got we got some time for this stuff to play out but i do think uh just like we had a switch

(22:01):
50 years ago going from gold to fiat i think and thankfully we have bitcoin i think everybody's
seeing that that's just not gonna last so the next epoch probably we'll have some gold as a part of
it probably we'll have some bitcoin as a part of it but i think i think that still can continue for

(22:23):
a while uh how long again i've said this on the first show that i talked to you about uh you know
if you were a gold bug in the 80s you would have thought you had just won in the game of life when
gold went from 35 an ounce to 850 an ounce uh for two seconds in 1980 and then obviously when there's
a 20 year bear market i'm not predicting that for bitcoin i don't think anybody is and we have the

(22:46):
power curve as well which is showing that that's not happening but uh basically i'll stop talking
here but the point is i do i do think this stuff can go on a lot longer than we think but yes i
would agree with your general sentiment and with a lot of this sort of sentiment that's going around
and i kind of i would put it in people should read scale by jeffrey west because basically

(23:08):
i think we're going to jump to another treadmill it's going to be faster it's going to be more
complicated you know you got to take advantage of ai kids are growing up way different even than
you and i grew up you know i mean chat gpt is going to be part of their lives it's just gonna
be very it's gonna be very different but uh i i don't i don't and i also think gold and bitcoin

(23:30):
would be a part of the monetary system but i don't think it's gonna be like uh i don't know
like some supernova change i think i think it'll just be it'll be an evolution and bitcoin will be
a part of it. All right, so I'll stop talking.
No, I like that. I got to read
scale. Yeah.
His mathematical singularity.

(23:51):
Like on any other side of that.
I mean, he leaves it open, but what is
are you left to assume? Do we get abundance
or do we reach
Fermi's paradox, great filter
and fail to get through and something happens?
Is that the juxtaposition
he's sort of getting at?
Yeah, it's a paradigm shift. I mean, he
definitely says it's going to be some paradigm
shift uh he doesn't go as far as ray kurzweil's you know humans into silicon sort of idea but

(24:19):
but that's the idea yeah i mean i think
you know and you get these weird cross currents right like elon musk was saying we should have a
pause on ai it's so dangerous and then two months later he starts crock like what the fuck are these
people talking about i mean they're just like you know they're not even providing leadership we we

(24:40):
know that sam altman wants the regulation he wants his world coin you know if you're a regulated ai
company you are just like uh sbf wanted the regulation for his shitty ftx company he wanted
to define how crypto was going to be regulated and of course he's a fraud as well i'm not saying

(25:01):
altman is a fraud but he looks like a evil supervillain uh and he's got his world coin
so yeah there's there's gonna be pitfalls everywhere uh government is as usual as we
know is going to be part of the problem not part of the solution the thing is they have the guns
though they have the guns it's difficult uh i still think you know back to my soapbox at the

(25:25):
beginning of the show about ukraine that there's still value and salvation in the west than in a
place like Russia. China's going to be scary, though. I mean, they're going to go for Taiwan.
What are we going to do? I don't know. It's all this is coming.
I mean, to that point about there's still salvation in the West. I don't know about you.

(25:50):
Obviously, you're not physically here in the United States, but there is this energy in the
are particularly driven by
the emergence of AI
and I think more and more people
beginning to grok Bitcoin
pun intended
I don't know

(26:10):
it feels like the American spirit is like the fire
in the belly of the
archetypal
American is getting stronger
like the idea that you can go out there
and build something and
just go do things
yeah don't need the government you don't need
yeah
what do you think about the american party i think it's retarded um

(26:34):
and what are you gonna i mean uh don't put on my geopolitical analyst
or political american politics analyst hat too often but i think if you're just looking
out of the world in any other
free democracy that has

(26:56):
multiple
like a
it's weird because I've always said like we need to get rid of the
the
sort of two party system here
in the United States but I think the way
the American party is coming to you're just going to split
the conservative side of the aisle
and just hand everything to the
socialist which would be a disaster
yeah

(27:17):
yeah
so I don't think they're gonna
I don't think the American party is gonna
entice any of the
democratic socialists
come over and vote for them so
I think you're just handing everything
to the Zoran
Mamadonis of the world
yeah

(27:38):
states rights focus on states rights
I agree
I agree
yeah
I think
I tweeted this out I read a newsletter
about it two weeks ago too
where like Elon

(27:59):
I understand and who knows if it's like
K-Fob or whatever it's political
theater which I
certainly would put
a material probability on this being
the case that it's just some sort of
distraction tactic and
there could be some coordination behind the scenes
but if we're being generous and assuming earnest intention by Elon,

(28:27):
it's like,
come on,
dude,
how have you not recognized that you're not going to solve this problem by
playing the political game.
You have to work outside the system,
embrace technologies like Bitcoin,
open source software,
and sort of build and route around the government that you have clearly
identified as,
as being extremely wasteful.
Yep.

(28:53):
I just want to remind listeners that, you know, living in Europe with different priorities, right, I guess, than certain Bitcoin MAGA types or whichever type you are.
Free thinker types.

(29:18):
It's funny to look at the.
The foreign policy of the United States From the lens of these guys basically because none of them have any idea what the fuck they talking
about.

(29:38):
I don't know.
I'm sorry to say it like this,
but you know,
there was a grok,
a hilarious grok question.
It was like,
show us the,
the biggest Russian disinformation accounts on X.
twitter as i like to call it and uh number one was elon number two was tucker

(30:03):
and this is grok uh and then it's got like mtg uh it's got tim pool it's got
jackson hinkle just these you know it's got jordan peterson even and uh a lot of a lot of

(30:25):
characters all on the right except for this jackson hinkle who morphs into whatever he wants
to be this wacko but um you know it there's i i i uh i completely agree with you on everything

(30:46):
like domestic and what you're talking about with uh with working outside the system there's still
the question and i've brought this up on your show before right which i think is difficult and
like it definitely needs adults in the room i would be fine if there was a change but i don't
know exactly how it's changed but it's a lot of where my libertarian theory breaks down

(31:07):
it's basically handling the situation of uh you know the nukes better and i've asked you you as
well like if texas succeeded what would be their nuclear policy you know would they would they take
the nukes from some of the silos in wyoming idaho would they have a thought about that

(31:29):
you know there are just some practical problems about defense and issues and this is stuff that
like nobody's going to get around and yet all of these wackos have no fucking clue about the threat
that exists from
Russia.
It's really, it's unbelievable to me.
So anyway, it's the last time I'm going to bring up

(31:50):
Russia. It's a lot of cognitive dissonance
that I see there.
I mean, I said this a couple weeks ago
during an episode
with who?
I think Tom Luongo.
We need to adopt
Elaine Au's
denuclearization.

(32:11):
protocol. Turn the, uh, turn the kinetic nuke weapons into nuclear power, improve that you're
denuclearizing by plugging in. We can, uh, we can look at the hash rate, go up and have a certain
degree of certainty that people are decommissioning their, their nuclear weapons. And that would be

(32:35):
amazing if bitcoin fixed that then i think it would be absolutely uh be fantastic one more reason
to get on the bitcoin train yeah speaking of the bitcoin train what the hell's been going on
before we get to the bitcoin train let's look at this chart you have up here basic money
basic money it's been it's been hovering it's been trending down it has so i first published it

(33:07):
seven years ago uh this is about this time in uh june july august 2018 20 trillion dollars
this is the core for people that are new to this this is the core central bank money
of the world. This is the balance sheet of the central bank. It's the main liability item. It's

(33:27):
called the monetary base. It includes notes and coins, all the physical cash in the world.
Also what they call bank reserves or bank cash. Basically the bank's account with the central bank.
That's called base money as well. That's everything is pyramided on top of that,
essentially. And we can bracket the word pyramid because I know it triggers a lot of people, but
again uh you just gotta get to talk about reality here and assets and liabilities but

(33:53):
anyway uh bumped up to 30 trillion to remind people topped out at 30 trillion in december 2021
30 and a half trillion yes as you said this is like the the graphical representation the money
supply representation of rising interest rates so because of all the covet madness and stimulus

(34:13):
they've had to raise interest rates which they started in 2022 2023
as well currencies have lost value against the dollar this is a witkinstein's ruler thing it's
hard to exactly graph all that uh precisely you're looking at here with the lower amounts
you're looking at yes some less money supply or flat money supply more like flat actually

(34:40):
but a lot of dollar devaluation, which is interesting.
So the dollar still remains the best looking horse in the glue factory.
And yeah, so now it's at 26.2 trillion.
But I very much believe, and I'll pull up another chart here in a second.
Let me get it pulled up.
I very much believe that this figure cannot stay this way for long.

(35:06):
Trump is desperate for a new Fed chair.
He's desperate for lower interest rates.
He's desperate for money printing.
The US doesn't fully run the world.
I take that point.
But obviously, it's an important signal, whatever the Fed will do.
And I'll show you this chart.
This is the same chart.
But this is now just doing a trend line over the life of the modern central banking period

(35:33):
since the end of the gold standard.
the slope of this trend is about 10 and a half percent 10 and a half percent
uh this is in dollar terms you can make the case that it's actually higher because in native terms
i throw out this figure it's closer to 13 or 1 a month that's in native terms but again they lose

(35:56):
value if you look at it from the lens of the dollar all the other currencies generally lose
value so take it down about 10 and a half percent but if you look here clearly we're way under trend
this is a beautiful 99 r squared exponential trend no one's going to tell me that fiat money
doesn't grow exponentially and if you put the two and a half percentile we're even under that

(36:18):
as of march 2025 which is my last update this is actually our q1 update marty we haven't talked in
a bit i gotta do q2 already uh right now but we'll we'll uh we'll we'll uh we'll get there
after are you coming to honey badger by the way uh due to um some some family events i will not

(36:38):
be there you will not okay no problem uh well like i said my invitation stands to anyone who wants
to debate geopolitics with me and the shithole nation that is russia but anyway i will uh i will
say that uh there's there's very few activities that are more gratifying than drinking beers with

(36:59):
matthew is anxious and regalapia thanks buddy uh we'll uh we'll wait for you next year so anyway
as you can see here it's it can't go on forever i don't know exactly you don't even need to look
at interest rates you don't need to look at dot plots but we are way under all the central banks
know how to do is print money we're way under uh at 26.2 trillion the trend the the two and a half

(37:24):
percentile is 27 close to 28 trillion the trend itself is 35 trillion based on what they've been
doing over 55 years so it's coming it's going to be gas on the fire uh go long money printing
yeah there's nothing really to worry about there um let's talk about bitcoin though

(37:46):
price so um
one of the things
i've shown you this curve right a lot right the power curve yes
uh just for people that haven't heard of this before heard of

(38:06):
my work if if you look at the chart that we just looked at
uh here you see it's a trend line this is 55 year growth of the money supply
the main money supply that's comparable to with Bitcoin. It's not M1, M2, M3. We can talk about
that. I have that here, by the way. M3 money, which is what you should use if you want to go
broad money is about $114 trillion worldwide. And this is only the top five currencies. I don't

(38:32):
actually have the remaining, the rest like I do for base money. So base money is 26 trillion.
M1 money, sorry, M3 money is $115 trillion. Anyway, that's deposit money. That's your
exchange account. That's your Coinbase account cracking different stuff. We can bracket that
again. But it's important for people to understand exponential, in my opinion,

(39:01):
primarily because of compound interest, just the way that compound interest is calculated in the
banking system is how everything grows. So back to our discussion about scale,
everything grows exponentially. Whether we eventually increase the rate of growth,
they get to that super exponential is still kind of up for debate, but I think it's probably true.

(39:22):
But nonetheless, everything grows exponential. It's a straight line on log scale.
If you look at Bitcoin and a chart of Bitcoin and you run a trend line through it,
far and away, I'll take all these bands off, just to make it easier. Far and away,
the best fitting curve is what you call power curve. All right. So you can notice this is

(39:43):
log scale as well. It doesn't matter the log, it doesn't matter the orders of magnitude.
It's not a straight line on log scale. So what's happening with Bitcoin, the phenomenon of Bitcoin
is something different. Like I said, I've been to the exponential, super exponential growth,
hyper Bitcoinization, Bitcoin maxis chagrin. I have been following this for seven years

(40:07):
and I've been correct for seven years. It's not on an exponential curve. This is a 96% R squared.
This is better than your stock to flow mean. I actually published the power curve before
the stock to flow mean
but my budget remains
zero dollars in marketing which I'm proud of

(40:29):
don't worry if you haven't heard
about the power curve it's no problem
we'll get there
and
correct me if I'm wrong but
when you
observe something
that's following a power trend it's typically
networks right
network adoption
it is a

(40:51):
it is a it is a feature if you look at it in a distribution a scaling distribution
like bitcoin you have uh one one feature of a network is you have uh many small nodes
with few connections and you have few small nodes with large connections

(41:11):
and that's a feature of whatever even if it's a public company like amazon or the internet itself
client server and stuff that if you draw a line through that that's a power curve
so that would be a straight line on log log scale unfortunately with my fancy charting
analysis i can't do a log log but if i would put the dates and it's important to say here

(41:35):
the the dates are not a function of this regression the function is days so there's actually a function
here it's a power function we don't have to get into the math it's not a big deal but there is
days behind this. So right now the function is counting out. We're about 6,000 days from January
3rd, 6,000 days from the Genesis block. And just brass tacks, what a power curve describes

(42:00):
is proportional growth. So unlike with money or stocks or bonds, this is constant growth,
right? Everybody thinks this way, right? Like your stockbroker,
talking heads on CNBC. They're all talking about, are you going to get 15% growth this year? What's
your hurdle rate? 8% growth. They're talking about constant continuous growth year upon year

(42:25):
upon year. And the basic rule for that rule of 72, if you take 72 divided by the return,
remove the percent sign, you'll get the time to double. All right. So 72 divided by 10,
it works best with 10%. In fact, so if it's a 10% growth rate, 72, remove the percent sign.
72 divided by 10 equals 7.2 that is your doubling time so if you have 10 growth of an asset doesn't

(42:48):
matter the asset you will double in 7.2 years this is what this is what um this is what compound
growth is this is what exponential growth is for fiat money as i just said it's about 10 percent
uh is the growth rate so it's actually exactly what i just said seven point every 7.2 years
this money supply doubles
we can check that

(43:09):
we can go back
here it's 2025
the trend, you got to go on the trend now
the trend is 35 trillion
we go back to
2018 or something
and
sorry
2017
17 and a half

(43:30):
17 and a half trillion
so roughly
every 7
seven years of this. It's not exact on this curve. It's like 10.2%, I think, actually,
is the growth rate. Anyway, I keep getting on these side tangents. I'm sorry.
This is exponential growth. Bitcoin does something different. What is it saying?

(43:52):
Don't worry about the math. But what it's saying is, after observing this curve long enough,
there's a percentage that you can get to, which is a constant percentage,
but it's a proportional percentage. So the percentage is 12.7%. And what that means is
for every increase in time that the Bitcoin network exists that is an additional 12 the network doubles That what the power curve of Bitcoin is showing us

(44:22):
That's what has been observed.
So we're 6,000 days in,
12.5%.
760 days or whatever.
Two years from today,
should be doubled.
Two years.
Yep.
Yep.
760 days is roughly,
this is roughly the doubling time of bitcoin at the moment

(44:43):
that is the brass tax number for bitcoin so that 12.7 will remain fixed but the days won't remain
fixed so it's a it's a different type of a growth than exponential growth so having observed this
like i said for seven years now playing around with the numbers a lot thinking about it uh you

(45:08):
know, gone through huge scams, 80% drawdowns. And then we've gone up with, you know, ETF adoption
and whatever. Trump mania, you know, that strategic Bitcoin reserve mania, even though that might not
happen regardless. My thesis, and I think I talked about this a little bit more with you, is I think

(45:32):
that the growth of Bitcoin, and I can, I'll show you this mathematically in a second. I think at
the moment, we're still about 95% raw network adoption.
Like it has nothing to do with the Fed, Trump, the money supply.
95% is based on this unbelievable mathematical trend.

(45:55):
And 5% has to do with the rest of the money supply, the debt, the world.
We're way early.
We're way early.
I think eventually that will flip.
And we'll get to where Bitcoin is.
Obviously, we're on a sat standard, Bitcoin standard.
But I think right now, in the growth of the Bitcoin network, 95% of the price movement of Bitcoin is based on the fundamentals of the power law and the power Bitcoin growth, which is completely different than exponential growth.

(46:32):
this is uh this is the sober analysis that we bring you in in here for and in terms of where we
are on this power trend line right now it looks like we're right on trend right on it yeah we've
been right on it really since the etfs etfs bumped us up here around 65k it started last year

(46:58):
we've gone back under you know a year ago now we've been back up we're literally right on trend
right so this is uh i think i pulled in the model only at uh july 6th 109 000 we're recording on the
9th uh for people that are curious but the um it doesn't matter i mean a couple days here a couple

(47:21):
days there it's not gonna matter but um right on trend and then if you're curious about where we
can go. So I do this sort of multiple analysis. Other people do it different ways. I'll just
explain to it to you how I do it. This would be the extremes. This would be the all time extremes
and it's based on a multiple. I used to do it another way, but this is actually better and

(47:44):
more intuitive in my opinion. So Bitcoin has never been outside of these bands, right? And you can
see that here right it hit the top here in 2011 and here in 2013 at the bottom here at the end of
2011 it will never be outside of this bands based on the math and uh if you can visualize so here's

(48:09):
the all-time trend the trend at the time was more inside that band you know what i mean it's much
sharper faster but the cool thing about this again i've studied this a long time so i would encourage
people to just take comfort in in what i've studied here uh notice from about the end of 2016

(48:29):
you almost look like a beautiful mathematical curve that that projects out see that see how
it's like even with the you know really from about here it's you know it's still adapting
i'm still taking the multiples but it's it's damn near the same trend as when you would project out
in the future so it's pretty cool it's pretty cool that's the first thing okay so this is this

(48:54):
is the max it's never going to get here to these numbers again in my opinion uh but let's take the
10th percentile on the 90th percentile and i'll take off the extremes all right so i'm taking off
the extremes and now just the 10th and 90th here we also get some interesting stuff you know this
would catch the what they termed the old crypto winter back in 2015 it would catch the almost

(49:17):
caught the puking here after uh the end of the 2018 crash and then the ftx puking here it almost
catches uh but if you just look at this band now we're we're a little bit high all right now i'll
put the trend itself back in all right the all-time trying the smooth trend but basically

(49:39):
we're we're right on trend okay so now uh let's put the upper percentiles i don't have to want to
or people and go through every little thing. I stream about this like almost every day now,
by the way. So if anybody wants to check it out, it's morning European time. It's a 9am London
time if people want to check it out. But I'm streaming about a lot of this most days. So
the question that people, you know, Americans like to get to number one number usually. So I like to

(50:06):
people can't really think of percentiles or what it means. But if you can think about the trend,
think about where we usually go every four years, and then think about a multiple over
are under that trend, that might give you a target of where we could go. So theoretically,
the end of the four-year cycle is the end of this year. The trend line at the time is

(50:27):
$125,000. $125,000 Bitcoin. The 90th percentile is 2x the trend. So that's very simply $250,000.
Okay. All right. Let's look again now. I'm going to take off the 10th percentile. Let's look at when Bitcoin went over the 90th percentile. It was every single time, even if it was a little bit lower, as we can see in 2021.

(50:54):
one. All right. Now let's zoom in on the 90th. Here's a different chart.
I'm going to log left. This is just the top 90, the rainbow of top 90 days.
And actually, let's just review. So again, the very peak, which we had in the early days,

(51:15):
it's not going to happen again, like a 7.8x move over the multiple. That's not going to happen.
and I think you can take off the 99th, 98th.
Let's even take off the 97th.
What that leaves us with is a multiple of 2x trend,
2.8x trend.
Let's just see how the rainbow looks.
We hit it in 2011.
We hit it in 2013 twice.

(51:36):
We hit it in 2017 easily and harder,
but we did hit it completely,
all these rainbows in 2021.
Not saying that's going to happen again,
but very simply,
So if you take these rainbows out to the end of 2025, the trend is 125K.
2x that trend is 250K.
Let's go up to the top end of that curve, which is nearly 3x the trend, 350K.

(51:59):
So that would be my estimate for 2025.
And probably because of the really large institutional entering of the market.
Although, again, like I said, the real world, in my opinion, is very minimally correlated to this trend.
I mean, the trend itself, the network adoption is the bigger 95% of the price action.

(52:24):
It's possible we go a little bit into 2026, I think, based on how we're just chilling on this trend line right now.
But as you know, as I know, I mean, you get that God candle.
Everybody's waiting for it.
You get super bullish, you know, fever, FOMO everywhere.

(52:45):
It's totally possible by the fall we spike back up into this area.
But yeah, this is generally my call, I would say, by the end of the year.
125K should be the trend.
I think it will be 2 to 3X.
The trend is a very safe, normal target.
And, you know, not financial advice, but people, you know, do what you want to do.

(53:06):
I don't think hyper-Bitcoinization is coming at this point.
I don't think the United States will collapse at this point.
Russia is going to collapse with the United States.
So keep focus.
Take care of your family and make your own decision from that point.
Yeah.
And I think I feel comfortable asking this.

(53:28):
I believe you'd be able to speak to this too.
I think what people really need to realize is that as the market cap of Bitcoin grows, it becomes even harder to push the price up.
Yeah, precisely.
It becomes heavier, becomes a little bit heavier.
Yeah.
And what are your thoughts on this broader Bitcoin treasury trend in public markets?

(53:53):
Is it sustainable?
It's not sustainable, for sure.
I think just by Bitcoin, in my opinion.
but totally logical and the right move for the early companies that are trying this.
Obviously, we've seen what's happened with MicroStrategy,
seen what's happened with MetaPlanet.

(54:14):
That's not going to be the result for everybody.
Early bird gets the worm, so to speak.
But as long as people aren't taking excessive leverage with this paper
that they're creating on top of Bitcoin at crazy prices to buy more Bitcoin, I don't

(54:34):
think necessarily it's going to be a huge problem, specifically for the large holders
like MicroStrategy.
As far as I can tell, their liquidation level is very, very low still.
But that's not a phenomenon that I think will matter over the long term.
But I will say, in other words, I do think that Bitcoin yield eventually collapses to

(54:56):
one.
but i do have some interesting thoughts on at least i think they're very interesting on
how this could affect the growth of everything literally what we were just talking about
because think about this think about this marty if everything grows exponentially
this is verifiable this is due to the theory of interest and credit i mean an interest rate

(55:23):
literally is a compound rate. It creates an exponential trend.
Often, and this is what people in our space like to write about, this is an unsustainable trend.
People take leverage. People make stupid decisions. Things collapse. This happens
in the old days, in medieval times. It happens across empires. It happens with currencies.

(55:47):
I'm not saying it's going to collapse tomorrow, by the way. I'm just putting an observation out
there, right? Exponential trends have a very difficult time. Actually, back to the top of
the show, what we just said, unless you increase that treadmill, you jump on a new treadmill,
you increase the growth, you have a paradigm shift in a new technology, and you can keep ahead of the

(56:07):
trend, or eventually, the curve, it becomes unsustainable. It collapses. Again, I'm not
calling for... We can look at the US debt chart. I'm not calling for that tomorrow at all. And I'll
show you exactly with numbers but think about that idea so we have the track like i'll just
show you a chart here in a second we have the trad fi world that is running exponentially

(56:32):
and then we have the bitcoin world which is running in power and then we have some trad
fi companies like microstrategy like metaplanet uh you know many others
what happens when the trad fi world starts to buy an asset that moves in power in the bitcoin world

(56:55):
what will those stocks look like so this giovanni character uh from from italy who's done a lot with
the power curve he's been talking the idea that it looks like the trend of micro strategy stock
is starting to match that of bitcoin which makes sense obviously but that's a power curve
if everybody has bitcoin and that's a part of everybody's balance sheet

(57:20):
and bitcoin against this uh numeraire of our world today which is the dollar
moves in power against bitcoin then presumably the trad fi world as well will start to move
in power but this goes back to the old question about debt versus equity or interest rates or

(57:41):
whatever. How do you price your cost of capital when you have this slowly asymptotically declining
rate of growth every year with Bitcoin, which is very predictable? Money supply is very predictable.
The power curve, as I've just shown you since 2016, is almost identical to the power curve if

(58:02):
you add in nine more years of data. Unbelievable. Unbelievable from a statistical standpoint.
what happens to contracts you know are you you're going to have a a loan where you pay a certain
amount of interest this rate this year in sats and then the next year you pay a little bit less
in interest and a little bit less a little bit less you know because once you have bitcoin

(58:23):
generally everything looks cheaper from that lens but it doesn't look exponentially cheaper all the
time the rate of growth does decline in bitcoin so it's a very it's starting a bit of philosophical
question, but let me put a chart here to show you the...
This is one of my ultimate theories here now.

(58:44):
Alright, can you see this?
Yeah, we had a conversation about this at the Philly John
last month, thinking about this
philosophically, like how do you reorient, I think, would
one person says that we have to reorient

(59:05):
around future value
and basing things off of future value
versus present value
and sort of reorienting
contracts, trying to
value
Bitcoin in the
present and what it would be in the future
and base contracts off that.
That's what I recall.

(59:27):
Yeah, yeah. It's the same
vein. I'm on the same wavelength right now
So I'm going to try to show this graphically.
All right.
So here is, this is kind of my ultimate, ultimate theory at the moment.
I've added in this chart.
I started from 2008, which is when Bitcoin, the December 31st, 2008 is when Bitcoin started.
I'm taking all the base money in the world in fiat, which at the moment is 26 trillion.

(59:51):
I'm adding, which I don't have a chart of, but you just take my word for it.
I'm adding available gold and available silver.
Basically what I'm doing.
So you add those three things together.
Technically, you got to subtract the gold reserves, which I said are $4 trillion, because that's on the asset side of central balances.
And there's now $50 billion of Bitcoin, dollars worth of Bitcoin.

(01:00:12):
So subtract that out to not overlap.
But that's still counted in available gold, so it's not overlapping.
Bottom line, the value as of today is $43 trillion.
So that $26 trillion just grew to $43 because I included gold and silver.
So this is what I'm calling TradFi money.
trad five based money old money new money it's the same exponential trend it's always exponential

(01:00:36):
in the trad fight world uh this rate of growth is actually even slower surprisingly because the
growth has been slower in the last 10 years so that's affected so we just went down from about
10 or 10.2 whatever it is to about now it's seven and a half this is a seven and a half percent
trend line so this now it's the opposite of what i just said rule 72 this will double every 10 years

(01:00:57):
i'll prove it to you just here uh december 2025 45 trillion it's 46 trillion december 2035
92 trillion roughly right so it's a roughly a seven percent growth rate of this
curve all right we got a hundred years we got a hundred years on this chart marty

(01:01:19):
to not confuse the chart i'm just taking actual values moving right into the trend line
now let's compare the trad fi base money growth with the bitcoin growth which like i said
whether it's price market cap address growth hash rate growth it's all power
so here's how a power curve looks the bitcoin much faster much faster notice how

(01:01:45):
that green line becomes nearly
flat line because Bitcoin's
growing so fast from zero.
All right.
And now
from here we can put a
dominance, Bitcoin dominance index.
And I've done variations of this before, but I think
this is probably the cleanest way to do it.
So here's a dominance curve.

(01:02:07):
Zoom in from here.
This is graphically what I was
just telling you before. Remember how I told you that
I believe that 95% of Bitcoin's price action is due to the inherent nature of the growth itself,
the adoption itself. People all around the world figuring out how amazing Bitcoin is itself.

(01:02:28):
5% is due to TradFi nonsense. This is literally the dominance that we see.
So if you see Bitcoin as a $2 trillion market cap, that's roughly 5% of this TradFi fiat money
market cap. And then there is this mythical 100 trillion number that gets thrown around by
different people. I'm not going to name names. It happens to be that if we project out TradFi at 7%

(01:02:55):
and Bitcoin at its growth rate, which is variable and it declines, we meet in the early 2040s.
And it's actually not 100 trillion, it's about 150 trillion, 155 trillion.
it's just a trend i'm not saying it's definitely going to happen but bear in mind dear listener

(01:03:16):
the bitcoin trend has been pretty amazingly consistent for 10 years now nine years so
if these trends continue and if trad fi continues to grow at whatever it needs to grow whatever
presidents and prime ministers want their central banks to print at and whatever people

(01:03:36):
value of gold at and gold will be a part of this picture in my mind um because again central banks
have a four trillion dollars worth of gold in books then we get to about 100 in uh in early 2043
so let me know if you have any questions just with this point so is that the target date for

(01:03:58):
bitcoin standard i think it'll happen before i think it'll happen before um bear in mind 100
percent actually is 50 50 so in trad five base money there is no bitcoin there it's literally
just gold silver and fiat money and then i have layered next to it bitcoin growth
if if central banks and treasuries in particular be better if it was treasuries would be better for

(01:04:26):
the world if it was treasuries not central banks but if treasuries started to hold bitcoin
this green line would come down faster because again i remove
the uh asset backed portion of the money i remove any gold or silver in the central bank there's no
silver but i remove the gold and i remove the bitcoin so this green line would come down faster

(01:04:47):
bitcoin would cross it faster the more uh treasuries reserve bitcoin that's that's an
unknown variable i'm only just taking current current current levels which are very low right now
as well i think two more havings is where anybody around the world is going to need to
see to understand how like amazing this thing just keeps churning along you know you can have

(01:05:12):
that issuance the price continues to rise um whatever it's just a feeling it's not really
much more to say about that but two more havings from now right you know you're roughly around the
2030, uh, 2032 area.
And that would leave 10 more years to get there.

(01:05:35):
And I think it probably would start to happen at that point.
I think, I think somewhere in the early 2030s, this is where you're at already $20 trillion
Bitcoin, many more contracts are going to be done in sets.
Uh, and we just start to get there.
and my mind immediately goes to obviously we're just talking about like the

(01:05:56):
micro strategy and copycat sort of attack public capital markets to accumulate bitcoin but
looking at this power trend and the fact that it's been so clean for almost a decade now
putting on like my venture hat and my business owner hat if somebody owns a business here at

(01:06:18):
tftc like being able to internalize this trend block out the noise like once you've internalized
it enables you to block out the day-to-day noise of this that and the other headline and intraday
price movement affecting your your perception on bitcoin if you can internalize this power trend

(01:06:39):
and basically stick to like this is happening here's how bitcoin adoption is happening and
what that does the price of a long time over the long term like if you're just building a business
that can provide a good or service that produces revenue and you produce that revenue
the cost to produce that revenue is cheaper than the revenue we're bringing in so you're bringing

(01:07:02):
in a profit and you're funneling that in the bitcoin you're thinking like warren buffett
long-term cash flowing business value accretion like internalize this power trend and then go
build a business that provides goods and services at a profit,
funnel it into Bitcoin and you'll wake up two decades from now with a very
valuable business.

(01:07:24):
Yep.
A hundred percent agree.
And that's what I'm seeing,
but there is a wrench here.
There is a,
there's always a wrench.
Yes.
This is,
this is the thought experiment.
It's,
it's philosophical at this point.
I fully admit it again.
I'm not saying that Bitcoin,
like remember our numerators still the dollar.
you know i know a lot of people think the united states is going to collapse

(01:07:47):
whatever like you said it's better just build around it embrace the free world uh you got a
lot of shithole countries like russia that you know you need to understand are completely liberal
no property rights sorry just got to go back to that the world is a big place still and there's
there are a lot of issues here so again hyper bitcoinization i'm sorry it's a i've been right

(01:08:09):
about this now for seven years it's i see this continuing but here's the here's the interesting
thing back to our discussion about um back to our discussion about exponential growth versus power
right so power is very sustainable growth as you can see just here right i mean it's uh

(01:08:30):
this is just a beautifully sustainable sustainable curve right it's it's you know as as the thing
gets heavier, gets bigger, it grows a little bit slower. I'll graphically show this now in a
trailing 12 month on the right hand axis. Okay. So it's here. Obviously it's super fast growth
here. I'm going to zoom in thousands of percent. The network was growing here when we was literally

(01:08:51):
rounding to $0 trillion. By 2012, we were about a thousand percent, under a thousand percent into
the year 2013. Okay. That's the trend growth of the trend. Look at this curve now. All right.
Where are we today?
45%.
It's exactly what I just said before.
If you were doubling every two years or we're doubling at a two-year rate right now, which

(01:09:16):
is 760 days, but the growth rate will decline.
The doubling time will increase.
So I need doubling time here as well, just to make it even clearer.
But we're falling as we increase, and we increase still very rapidly in the dollar market cap
of Bitcoin.
all right by 2030 i'm looking at we're looking at 10 trillion dollar market cap

(01:09:37):
that's only quote only a 31 growth rate still an enormous growth rate for wall street and i predict
i predict it still will be an enormous growth rate for wall street but i will show you a trad
five stock in a second which which makes this a little bit interesting anyway 2040 when i think
will cross we'll be at about a 20 rate still huge trailing 12 months but here's where it's a little

(01:10:02):
bit weird is what happens when we get to the rate of trad fi and in my chart remember i'm
representing trad fi is about a seven percent growth rate a year okay as we're talking about
money just think basically this is saying you better at least get seven percent because the
money supply is growing that much okay that's that's what it's just a basic way to understand

(01:10:24):
what i so understand this trad fi chart like if this green line grows to seven percent a year you
you better at least get that.
And obviously people want more with,
with,
you know,
various small businesses or whatever you you hope to get a higher rate of return So it looks like there no problem here but obviously you need just a basic understanding of geometry to understand that one of these lines is straight one is not straight

(01:10:45):
So this will actually cross back down again in the future.
So what does that mean?
How do we play that into our model?
Especially when, and I'm going to take off,
I'm going to take off the,
I'm just going to leave the growth rates
and I got to zoom in.
What happens when we get to here?

(01:11:07):
Right.
So now Bitcoin is coming down by the year 2086.
You got to love my projections here.
You know, I'm not saying I know exactly what's going to happen in the year 2086, but we get
to the year 2091 and we hit 7.3%, which matches that old TradFi constant growth, exponential
growth.
How does our dominance curve look like?
This is actually where it crests.

(01:11:29):
All right.
I'm going to blow the chart out.
I actually need to hold on.
This is the dominance curve now.
Okay.
So we get to 100% early 2040s.
We get to 543% or something in 2090.
But as that curve crossed mathematically, obviously, it's going to crest.
It's going to go back down.

(01:11:50):
So look, this is philosophical.
I understand that.
Don't at me saying I'm saying this, you know, 50 years from now that I was wrong, obviously.
uh but one of two things could happen when we talk about these growth rates all right in my opinion
it's either the trad fi system which is exponential as more people take on bitcoin

(01:12:14):
like these bitcoin treasury companies starts morphing to a power-based growth system which
is Bitcoin, or Bitcoin, which is a power-based growth network model, starts getting subsumed,
taken over, starts morphing to a TradFi exponential growth system.

(01:12:38):
Systems can morph like this.
I'm not an expert.
I'm not a statistician, but they can morph.
One of those two things would have to happen.
That, to me, is the philosophical question.
And I think if we imagine a system where Bitcoin is a little bit more captured by the state, the state is still around.

(01:12:59):
People, you know, it's a less optimistic scenario, in my opinion.
I'm not saying it's a dead scenario.
In neither scenario, Bitcoin is bad.
I want to be clear right here.
Bitcoin is good in both scenarios.
But if Bitcoin moves into an exponential mode where you kind of just compare it with a stock market growth or, you know, whatever, the deposit rate of growth or whatever, then that probably means Bitcoin's pretty integrated into a controlled TradFi system.

(01:13:33):
on the on the contrary if the world is more free and people are using bitcoin and there's a lot of
control and bitcoin create still continues to have this natural interesting sustainable power
growth that kind of levels off with a slower rate of growth and everybody understands sats
everything else is getting cheaper in terms of sats but interest rates won't exactly make sense

(01:13:57):
in this system because interest rates are constant you have to understand that point
if all of those things are true then i think this is actually a graphical representation of the
trad fi system will go power and this is my next step of my research that i want to look at is and
i don't have an answer to you yet about this but i'm just thinking about this is i think if you

(01:14:20):
start to get a bunch of companies on balance sheet holding bitcoin and bitcoin becomes a huge part of
their cash reserves then you might see their stock prices have this gentle bend it's still a
way faster than TradFi, but it is going to be a more gentle bend in the power direction.
And that's going to have like vast implications. Like I can't even explain, you know, again,

(01:14:42):
how that's going to work. But anyway, that's my thought. To me, it's kind of interesting.
I'm just sort of, I'm still playing around with it, but I think what we're going to see is two
worlds colliding and mathematically
one is exponential
0the other one is power 982 01:15:00,1000 --> 01:15:02,640 and we're going to actually see what

(01:15:02):
see which one wins and I'm not exactly sure
which one will win but those are my thoughts
the caveman brain
of me
is looking at
the power versus the exponential
growth rates
many of the charts that you've shown today
and understanding
intuiting that humans

(01:15:23):
our brains really
cannot fathom exponential growth.
We can fathom it, but you can't recognize
it's happening to you while it's happening in the moment.
A lot of times it seemed like an economy based
off of systems that are growing in a power trend
is much more predictable and much easier to

(01:15:43):
plan within compared to
exponential. Correct. But the rub there, the one hiccup
is, and let me put this in this way, and I got to do here, but it's a bit annoying software, but
go. This is the growth rate of each. Okay. Here we are. Roughly right now, Bitcoin's at 45%.

(01:16:08):
Let's just assume, I know TradFi has all different hurdle rates people have their own,
but the growth of base money plus gold, silver on a market cap basis, 7.3% per year.
i would actually contend to you that our primitive monkey brains say the opposite it's easier to
predict something like this and this is indeed what the talking heads on cnbc say every day

(01:16:32):
yes can you get me a seven percent return can you give me a percent return we all have different
returns and returns do change a little bit but generally if you graph this out uh the number the
The interest rate is a straight line, and also the growth rate is a straight line.
One goes up to the right.
That is the actual in-dollar terms of the stock.

(01:16:54):
But the rate of growth is a predictable 7% per year.
That's a powerful force.
It doesn't always work, like I said, and we talked about it.
It can explode.
It can be unsustainable.
We can talk about debt.
We haven't even talked about that.
I don't know if we'll have time on the show, but I got charged for that.
that we can go a while longer on the debt, in my opinion.

(01:17:18):
But this is TradFi.
What happens when you get a network that starts growing?
Sorry, this is TradFi in a rate of growth.
What happens when you get a network that's so amazing and so strong
and everything gets cheaper in terms of it?
But the nature of it is actually that the rate of growth declines every year

(01:17:41):
in a more sustainable way.
and then what's the weird thing do we go back to trad fi in uh in 70 years or 60 years whatever it
is um you know 80 years when we get to here this is all very interesting questions in my opinion
and uh i don't have an answer i don't have an answer but this is

(01:18:03):
this this black line which is the growth rate of bitcoin as a network
is only seen in sort of like nodes and uh i don't know it's it's sort of weird networking
things it's not really seen in assets in assets uh you know like things natural emergent systems

(01:18:26):
right things grow this way yeah it's it's more exactly it's more of a natural emergent phenomenon
is what this is it's a sustainable phenomenon but this is more financial phenomenon
and so these worlds are going to collide somewhere here probably like really obviously as we said
bitcoin's going to overtake the value of that world but that's not the end of that other world

(01:18:49):
so i'm trying to figure out this stuff let me show you one more thing here while we're on this
this strain of thought um how much more time you got we got like half an hour
we have plenty of time so here's procter and gamble this is a good old cincinnati company
my my porkopolis uh uh brand is actually based in this because it's a you know over 100 year

(01:19:15):
s&p 500 company started as a soap maker soap was a byproduct of the hogs in cincinnati during the
industrial revolution then it turned into a consumer product powerhouse then it concerned
into a marketing powerhouse. You never know where an economy will go, basically.
That was Procter & Gamble, Fortune 500 company. And here's how it grows. This is market cap of P&G.

(01:19:40):
It's about $400 billion under trend, but at the moment, it's $400 billion market cap,
Procter & Gamble. Trend is higher. You can see it just pops up to the trend line here. It's
425 billion but there it is uh not as fast as the growth rate as actually it's about i think it's

(01:20:04):
about nine percent growth rate is this trend and i'm only measuring this again from 2009 so
it's actually had slower growth certainly in the 1800s and slower growth in the 1900s but
as we've moved up those treadmills it's faster so here's here's png and here's bitcoin
Bitcoin is obviously has no problem beating it.
You know,

(01:20:24):
Bitcoin,
as we know,
is one of the top,
if you value it against stocks,
it's one of the top six stocks in the world right now.
Bitcoin is not a stock,
but it is top six stocks in the world,
but has no problem beating this.
And even with that power curve,
which is not a straight line,
it's,
you know,
well above it.
And we don't have to think about the future,
right?
That Bitcoin dominance curves,

(01:20:45):
it does crest,
but it's way out in the future.
We don't have to really think about it.
But what happens if we look at a company like Apple?
And I will...
All right, so I'm ready.
We look at a company like Apple.

(01:21:07):
Apple has grown extremely fast in the last 15 years in the life of Bitcoin.
It started out as a...
When Bitcoin was born, Apple was a $70 billion company.
And this is why people that don't actually look at the numbers, you'd be amazed at how fast things grow.
Apple was a $70 billion company on January 3rd, 2009.

(01:21:28):
Now, $3.2 trillion.
The $3.2 trillion company.
What's the rate of growth of that over the last 15 years?
22% per year.
It's massive.
Not as big as Bitcoin's, 45% at the moment even.
But it's still massive.
And it's still a straight line.
Unquestionably exponential growth, 95% R square, straight line.
on log scale.

(01:21:51):
Now, let's put Bitcoin.
I'm not saying Bitcoin has to be bigger than Apple,
but let's just put a TradFi system,
which is also a network, by the way, Apple.
Don't get confused with that, with the power versus that.
Obviously, there's a network of Apple users,
but it's still a company.
It's still TradFi.
What happens when we put this exponential growth against that same Bitcoin power growth We cross it but very briefly and then we actually back under it already by 2046

(01:22:26):
About the time we're going to pass fiat-based money,
we're back under it, and we do the dominance curve.
We crest way earlier at only about 120% value of Apple,
and then we go down.
So again, I'm putting this out there live
for viewer content, so to speak,
and feedback if people have thoughts about this.

(01:22:47):
I don't think anybody's explored this
as far as what actually this means.
But, you know,
there are few stocks that can compete with Bitcoin this way.
Apple's a huge company.
It grows fast.
If we assume that it would continue to grow
at a 22% growth rate per year,
which is massive,

(01:23:07):
then
Apple's going to be at 200
by 2040 Apple's going to be about a
90 trillion dollar company
Bitcoin will be
105 trillion dollar asset
bigger
but that power growth of Bitcoin will
will be slower and Apple will
still be on the exponential growth

(01:23:28):
there it goes back to my question does Bitcoin
move to
exponential or
does TradFi move to power?
Because maybe Apple shareholders are demanding
that we hold Bitcoin
in their treasury as a cash asset.
This is what I'm trying to play around with

(01:23:49):
at the moment.
Well, I think
if we assume that at some point
in the next few decades we hit
a Bitcoin standard,
it wouldn't
even matter.
You would imagine that a lot of these companies would be
forced to hold Bitcoin on the balance sheet and then
like their stock would be priced in sats and the treasuries of the governments would

(01:24:19):
have a lot of bitcoin reserves and people would be pricing stuff so
i think at some point along this journey there'll just be like a disconnection from the fiasco i
0I'm just spitballing here.
No, no.
That's what I'm saying.
I don't think compound interest works in that system.

(01:24:40):
I think you can have interest in debt instruments and all the rest,
but you'd have to literally pay,
as you talked about with your friend who you're talking about this,
you'd have to think in terms of the future value of the money.
Bitcoin is going to be on such a strong trend.
You and I see this trend now.
We see that it's 96% R-squared.
It's amazing.
we're on the trend

(01:25:01):
but it's on such a strong
trend
that holds your purchasing power
you know we have this limited supply
everybody's using
0stats so there's just 1167 01:25:13,1000 --> 01:25:15,540 there literally won't be
enough stats to go around
with exponential growth
right

(01:25:21):
so if there's literally not enough
stats to go around with exponential growth
the compounding loan contract
you know
what do debt contracts look like at that point?
What do factoring or, you know,
what's the word, like working capital type contracts look like?
What do line of credits look like? 1179 01:25:40,1000 --> 01:25:41,120 Yeah.
This is, I think, a very interesting question.

(01:25:44):
I mean, I think SAFE has been a big advocate of this,
but you just transition to an equity-based funding mechanism
where you're putting up capital,
0you're just buying a percentage of the revenue,
the profits moving forward, right?
dividend payouts.
Is that
we do move all of financing

(01:26:04):
to that model? I don't know.
I don't either. Because
remember, the TradFi
system is still around.
We may not like it.
We might not get to this point where
everybody is taking nukes
and denuclearizing
and
selling into the Bitcoin network

(01:26:26):
their nuclear power, which
I hope they do. Totally agree with that point, by the way. It's a question mark to me. It's a
question mark to me. But what I think I'm onto here is a graphical representation of sort of this
connection. It will be faster and almost a non-issue for some companies. For example,

(01:26:54):
here with proctor like you know if it was just like say the biggest stock in the world was proctor
and gamble not but let's just say it was and and bitcoin was the value that it was it has this
value we wouldn't even need to think about this question maybe the trad fi world would still move
on some continuous compounding exponential growth standard compounding loan type situation

(01:27:18):
and then if you wanted to get out and take profits and get into sound money then you get into sound
money because bitcoin would be bigger than procter and just you know the stock market would be a
separate player separate game but this happens with apple it also happens with microsoft and a
few you know there's there's only five stocks in the world that are bigger than bitcoin at the
moment google is another one amazon and nvidia um those companies which are all obviously uh

(01:27:47):
network sort of based companies you know they have network effects they have
uh they have a lot of power they have a lot of power in government
and this sort of uh i don't use the word singularity but this this
this uh this crossover this convergence happens a lot sooner than it was even with the fiat money

(01:28:11):
Remember, this is the fiat money chart.
Bitcoin has no problem passing and staying above it for a long time.
And for a few months, I was running this and I was like, oh, maybe it just doesn't matter.
We'll be on a sat standard, whatever.
But it's very interesting.
There's a few companies that are still bigger than Bitcoin.

(01:28:36):
And they grow exponentially.
I want to believe
I'll put my Bitcoin utopian hat on
I want to believe that Bitcoin is going to change
the whole world
and move it to a system
that is more sustainable
other people might have other ideas

(01:28:59):
what's the argument against that
somebody like Apple would be like
shareholders will not be happy
with power trend growth
they prefer the exponential growth that we have exhibited for the better part of half a century
um would there be like some internal pushback on that because they're essentially at some point

(01:29:24):
accepting lower growth rate and they're not happy with that so they would
lobby the government and try to yeah perturb the adoption of bitcoin as a standard
yeah you see what i mean like if bitcoin if bitcoin was just dwarfed the size of apple
in the projection and i'm not saying the projection is gospel but it's pretty good and i and i so far

(01:29:49):
believe in it but if bitcoin was like dwarfed it it was like the safe place like it's like you take
your risk in the stock market and then you go back to the castle for safety, then I wouldn't
even ask this question. But Bitcoin does not dwarf Apple. It does not dwarf Microsoft.
Also, keep in mind, gold grows exponentially and Apple, Microsoft,

(01:30:13):
NVIDIA, they're all smaller than gold. Gold is a $20 trillion asset at the moment. Gold is not
going away gold is a great year right last couple years it's gone up 3x it had a terrible 2010s
peter schiff much to peter schiff's uh dismay much to his chagrin it's gone completely sideways

(01:30:35):
uh until a couple years ago but there's a lot of moving parts here my point again hopefully the
listeners can catch the thread of my uh i'm picking out of my jib here i'm not trying to
be utopian i'm trying to show you some warnings i'm trying to show you the data there's a lot of
numbers here uh where i've put this together yes we're in a dollar numeraire situation um

(01:31:00):
but this looking at these large cap stock market caps against bitcoin is kind of interesting
the growth rate so it's funny like we're focusing on apple too i'm not sure if you've been
paying attention to the conversation around apple and the trad fi world which is they're falling

(01:31:20):
behind we've got a ton of cash they've reached a lot of equities analysts talk about this point
like you get so big that your incentive really isn't to innovate bring new products to market
and grow it's just like to protect the the cash flow cows that you've already produced which

(01:31:40):
introduces like the innovators dilemma and it's something like is there like natural entropy to
companies that reach a scale from a productivity and growth perspective yeah and actually that's
a good coda i i should say that because again this is more analysis i need to do myself but
remember this trend line for apple that i drew here this is only based on basically the best

(01:32:03):
years of the company right like ipod was in full swing here when bitcoin was launched they were
just moving into the iphone which was a mega cash driver so this was like this was the best years of
the company if you put a trend on this market cap growth 22 for you mega fucking mega but if you
stretch this out and i went back to the 80s for apple i don't know what it is but their growth

(01:32:27):
would be much slower like call it 10 i don't know and it's totally possible if you want to
sort of it might be hard when i talk about constant growth but it all depends on where
your starting point is when you do this okay so we picked a i'm picking the life of bitcoin to
measure this but it's totally possible like you said that apple becomes like an ibm or something

(01:32:48):
you know like a main like it's a bad analogy but you know like it's a it's a more legacy
tech company whatever and because of like you said the innovators dilemma they just need to
help their shareholders it could be that if you back this out and you looked at the lifetime
trend of the Apple stock, let's just call it, let's say it's 10% per year from the 80s,

(01:33:12):
not 22% from 2008. It could be that Apple reverts to that lifetime trend and then you would still
be on a lower trend than a trend that would be passed by Bitcoin in a sooner manner, in a sooner
fashion than, or in a more sustainable fashion, let's say, than what this looks like. So that's
also a little coda. I know we're talking a lot of numbers when I come on and I just want people

(01:33:35):
to understand like
I love this thought experiment
yeah your compound growth can change
it's just
pick a lifetime
number and see what it is and then you'll kind of get
the broad framework of how things grow
it's like the stock of gold grows 1.8%
per year the actual units of gold that been a constant number for over 200 years yeah yeah because i mean it hard to see people disrupting apple materially in the next decade

(01:34:08):
on the phone and the laptops i think that's probably like the biggest driver of innovation
within Apple is actually the chips, the M1M2 chips.
They're pretty incredible.
Phone, they're not innovating too much there
and actually messing up the UI and the software.

(01:34:30):
That's a big question now with like Meta, OpenAI,
Tesla, Microsoft really leaning into AI
and Apple falling behind.
That's like a lot of the analysts are like,
they're just, they've turned into this massive bloated,
sort of bad and happy corporation that's just protecting its existing cash flows and

(01:34:53):
yep just trying to sustain and is there some point in the future where that that entropy
sort of hits a critical threshold where uh upstarts or competitors are able to take market share from
them all all reasonable thoughts here i have it on my website as well if people want to check it out
this is the ranking at the moment so nvidia is a nearly four trillion dollar company

(01:35:17):
microsoft 3.7 apple here you see at 3.2 amazon 2.37 then bitcoin at 2.16 trillion just ahead of
alphabet past meta pretty handily this year at 1.87 and then the old saudis saudi aramco
1.61 trillion uh interesting interesting outlier there the only non-tech type company

(01:35:44):
one is uh i love these these charts because it really cements bitcoin as a brand name
because when you think of like i mean the video is like a relatively new brand name but brand name
nonetheless but then you get microsoft apple amazon google meta formerly and the video has
been around i mean the video has been around for decades yeah it's just way more popular these days

(01:36:08):
yeah yeah no it's bitcoin is if actually i said six before it's ahead of google just now so if
if bitcoin were a stock it'd be a top five stock globally it's unbelievable and if bitcoin is money
which it is then you go back to this chart and it's a top six money including gold we've got gold
20 trillion as i said a dollar by you know 5.8 trillion the euro 5.4 china this is from actually

(01:36:35):
i need to update this but this is i think q4 uh the euro 5.4 and the chinese yuan 5.25 trillion
oh no i did up this yeah we're at 2.16 right now i'm looking at the show 2.16 this this live
updates but sometimes uh the the last quarter in native fiat is is uh updated every quarter but

(01:36:57):
anyway the exchange rates upgrade update every day so yeah i mean that's my stuff man i'm uh i
know i'm pumping a lot of my own stuff these days but uh if anyone would like to donate that's good
pump your stuff you got my btc pay server i'm the anti-newsletter newsletter guy i mean i'm trying
to give all this stuff away free.
But

(01:37:17):
you know, if you like it,
I stream daily
and
I'd love to
hear people's thoughts about the way things
grow. I feel like you should be selling this
data to hedge funds.
I've been told that a lot.
Because you're the only one who aggregates all of it, right?

(01:37:37):
I know. I know. I know. I know. It's true. It's honestly
true. There's no APIs. You got to go through and do it.
brass tax
a lot of it is
look, I mean, I'm putting the
Peruvian central
bank data in my exhibit
does anybody really care about it?
No, they think about the price of Apple
so a lot of people have data to the real liquidity

(01:37:59):
liquid markets that already
exist, but it is an interesting
more economic thought experiment
to put all the central bank money together
I've been doing it for a long time
there has to be some esoteric
quant firm out there that would love this data the well uh i'm actually i'm playing with it again
not to to my own home or whatever but if i this is it's been a total closed loop like i don't i

(01:38:22):
don't share it so i mean i if if people like it i i show it you know you have my reports quarterly
reports we do the youtube videos uh the moment that i put it out there even if you put it out
there behind a paywall obviously people can steal it right because it's in uh it's in uh
whatever, like JSON form.
And even if it's behind a paywall,
people can get to it and scrape things.

(01:38:44):
Whatever. Everybody's got to make a buck.
I'm trying, no doubt, to continue.
I enjoy this.
I just accept it's value for value for me.
So it's like donations.
If you like it, please throw some stats my way.
But if you don't, you don't have to follow.
Will you go down to your BTC pay server, please?
We're going to show the power of Bitcoin right now.
Yes, we will.

(01:39:05):
Do it live on air.
you're the man dude lightning yeah let's do lightning
let me see
love you dude that's power bitcoin
watch this is this is the beauty of bitcoin you're completely on the other side of the world

(01:39:28):
bam and there it is dude that's a that's a good one thank you so much my man thank you
well thank you i don't pay for guests okay this is not what just happened here
i have never uh requested payment just to be clear i have never only donations only donations

(01:39:51):
value for value yeah it is a ton of value not again whether it's uh what's going on in eastern
europe or how to think of because i i've been we've been doing this show for six or seven years
now it's hard to believe yeah quarterly and then you're in the uh i think you're probably the most
you're definitely the most tenured guest on the show now at this point we've probably done

(01:40:12):
24 20 to 24 of these yeah which is insane um we'll continue to do them won't we yeah we will
and because like it is like again going back to like i have to remind myself even when i was going
back to looking at the power trend and internalizing that and just using that internalization as

(01:40:35):
a filter for all the noise that is rampant on an intraday basis and only going to increase
from here.
Like I have to remind myself, like this is why these quarterly updates are somewhat of
a Bitcoin therapy session for me to ground me back in reality.
Just understand that we have this network growth rate that's happening.

(01:40:55):
It's observable.
It is repeatable with other networks outside of Bitcoin.
And I think just looking at this observable data is very valuable.
Thank you for putting it together.
Well, you're welcome.
And I also want to say I appreciate you listening to my soapbox rants about Ukraine now for three years.

(01:41:18):
Because I am well aware there are plenty of Bitcoiners, MAGA types.
Or even if you're not a MAGA type and consider yourself a purist, libertarian.
And you probably don't know a lot about that situation.
But again, I'm trying to, you know, I'm pretty grounded over here.
I feel like we're literally under threat from a dictatorial regime.
And it's just, you know.

(01:41:40):
You might.
Yeah, go ahead.
I was going to say, going back to what I was saying earlier, like I'm a big believer in information systems and those closer to the information or the data probably have a better sense of what's going on and like physically.
you are there.
Yeah.

(01:42:00):
It's not easy. It's going to continue.
That's my problem with the federal government, too.
You have all these people in D.C. making
decisions from
the East Coast, and
they're making decisions for people in Idaho.
Nobody making those decisions is close
to the information that should be
guiding those decisions.
Precisely. That's the problem with the Federal Reserve.

(01:42:20):
The problem with even a
decentralized
network of 12 Federal Reserve branches, which
and you got like a richmond fed kind of weird now anyway uh they don't know like you said uh what
the real reserve ratio should be for banks in wyoming or something so uh or wherever
so i know richmond's not in wyoming i should make an example of many different places where

(01:42:49):
people can be and uh your planning board as ruder kayak says is never uh never gonna work
like the market so we do have the nuclear issue we have the nuclear uh umbrella issue and it's it's
uh it's it's tense right now i'm not gonna lie it's tense for us the ukrainians are suffering and
um you know i appreciate you guys listening and i i say that's all the listeners as well because

(01:43:13):
i know i can be strident about it but i also feel that i'm right and i feel that uh
if you're a republican traditional centrist uh call yourself libertarian whatever you have a lot
of ground to stand on as far as being prepared to stand up against a threat i'm not talking about
wokeism or all the other rest you know i'm just talking about a real normal threat and um

(01:43:38):
it was two democratic administrations where ukraine fell way behind in the free world so
anyway it's a i appreciate you guys letting me blend topics when i come on the show and talk
about long-term trends of bitcoin and then other geopolitical stuff well we appreciate you coming

(01:43:59):
to do it and i think if we're living true to the name of this company tftc truth for the commoner
i think the way you find truth is getting different perspectives on the same topic
so I love
I love our quarterly updates
even the parts that a lot of the

(01:44:21):
listeners don't like so
well we're gonna see
we're gonna see all I can say is
the direction that
the administration is currently moving in
is the direction that I was screaming for
three and a half years
you tried appeasement
let's see what happens
we shall see

(01:44:42):
Chamberlain tried appeasement as well
so keep that in mind yeah well uh q2 2025 ended nine days ago so i'm sure we'll be catching up it
typically takes you a month so yeah and this one uh we took a lot it took a while for us to do this
show but uh you know we've got honey badger coming up in august and things but i think by august uh

(01:45:02):
mid-august we can do another one already catch up on q2 all right sweet so we'll catch up next month
I've got to hop.
All right.
We'll call it the top of the hour.
Thank you, gentlemen.
Go support the man doing all the work.
At OneBaseMoney is my handle, if you're curious.
At OneBaseMoney.

(01:45:23):
And PorkopolisEconomics.io.
That's the website.
Go check it out.
Peace and love for you guys.
Take care.
Take care.

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