4/18/24-Baseball Betting Show

Greg talks about the importance of following bullpen use recaps Wednesday's MLB results, talks to Mid Major Matt Josephs of FTN Network about what has stood out to him from the first few weeks of the season, the conundrum in losing juice while waiting for info when betting props & looks at Thursday's games, & Greg picks & analyzes EVERY Thursday MLB Game!

Spreadsheet link: https://www.vsin.com/betting-resources/greg-petersons-daily-handicapped-mlb-lines/

Podcast Highlights

2:45-The Importance of following bullpen usage

4:10-Recap of Wednesday’s MLB results

22:14-Interview with Mid Major Matt Josephs

43:31-Start of picks Marlins vs Cubs

46:52-Picks & analysis for Diamondbacks vs Giants

49:52-Picks & analysis for Angels vs Rays

52:56-DK Network Pick Rangers vs Tigers

56:52-Picks & analysis for Guardians vs Red Sox

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Breaking down every game, every day in Major League Baseball.
This is the Baseball Betting Show. Here is your host,
Greg Peterson.

Speaker 2 (00:08):
Hey Warmer, Fudy Low. Welcome to Loving Las Vegas with
the Baseball Betting Show with myself Greg Peterson. Now part
of Theson Family Podcasts. We've gotten excellent podcasts for yous.
Joining me in segment um two is Matt Josephs. You
know him better as min Major Man. He does a
tremendous job taking a look on so many different fronts
college football, college basketball, and the prop market in baseball.

(00:28):
We're gonna be talking about what he's going to hear
in the first three weeks of the season. We've got
a very short five games slate, so we'll take a
look at that in pretty good depth, and then in
the final segment, gonna get you guys picks and analysis
on all five games as we touch them all. If
you do have a question comment segment idea what I
have you for this podcast? You do have one of
two ways We have far those in first one is
my Twitter slash x sideline at you and in under

(00:49):
forty one keep in mind letter sum leave me to
some matter size per usual please you send these into
the timeline and the other ways find an Apple podcast review.
If you rate this podcast I starts it is very
much appreciate it. From there, you're able fire in whatever
you'd like to hear on this podcast via that five
star view. Did not get in any Twitter slash tacks
questions today other than do I take a look at
these bullpens and their use and does that impact my handicap?

(01:11):
And I've been asked this by a few guys in
absolutely it does. Like the big reason why in these
recaps I mentioned all the bullpen pieces that get used
is for one, so that way you guys know who
all went the previous day. And for two, it's a
way so that way I know who's all been used
up as well. I pay attention to if a guy's
coming off of a back to back. If a guy
is like Kendall Graveman was a great example of this,

(01:33):
if you pitch one day, you would not find them
in really a lot of back to back spots as well.
So those are the sorts of things I do try
to keep aware of. And if a guy doesn't go
to the previous day, that means that he's probably going
to be going the next day as well. These teams,
they do have a little bit of a rotation with
regards to the bullpen pieces. Now sometimes they just write
you a big, giant surprise, like the Toronto Blue Jays.

(01:53):
It felt like they had a relatively good bullpen sort
of rotation going into Wednesday, and they decided to use
none of their big guys. And I have no idea why,
but you can only do your best with regards to
the seipheran who is rested and who's not. And sometimes
teams will just straught you a little bit of a curveball.
But it is certainly something that I do dive in on,
and it's certainly something that I pay attention to it.

(02:15):
It's a big reason why I relay it to you
on the show as well. So hopefully that clears that up. Now,
let's take a look back at everything that we did
see in baseball on Wednesday, try to find the trends
and try to get to know these teams a little
bit better.

Speaker 3 (02:26):
Games for yesterday is Greg buzzing about. Here is the
rowdy recap.

Speaker 2 (02:30):
The White Sox got win number three of the season.
It took them two games on Wednesday to be able
to get that as the first game to not go
their way the Royals, they got the job done by
account afford to two. As Brady Singer, he was not
necessarily having the White Sox singing the Blues, but he
wasn't either. Two runs rendered in five innings oh arms
start as he gives up a home run to uphold
the young third arm round season, but from there the

(02:51):
bullpen was pretty solid. John Trever, James MacArthur, Nick Anderson
will Smith. I'll into score of setting in had a
pair of bombs from the Cansary Royals as Salvator Paris
Gozie pop with Michael quebec Is fifth home run season
and Hunter renfro off of Dominique Laone his second home
run of the season. As for the White Sox, you
had a nice debut start for the Cannon and Jonathan

(03:12):
Cannon giving up one run in five innings. From there,
Joey Leisure Steven Wilson, they both supply a squirrels saying,
but then Gopek gives up two runs in an ending,
including that home run, and Dominique Laone gives up the
home run. Their renfro to costs to team the game
and then in game number two, the White Sox rise up.
They get a two to one win against the kan
See Royal says for Michael Walkup, not a bad startier

(03:32):
it gives up two runs over the course of six innings,
does allow home run two Gavin Cheets third home run season.
And then from there you had a pair of Squirrels
settings combined from NL Zertapa along with Chris Strandon. But
for the Royals, nothing doing on offense as it was
a nice start for Mark Fetti Wopp five and two
third sending scrolls from there Davy Garcia two scrorel settings,
Tanner Banks one and eight third ending score. So congratulations

(03:54):
to the White Sox on win number three of the
season and the Sellsiders six overs eleven a push for
the Kansaity Royals, by the way, they have played six overs,
twelve undreds and a push as well two of your
top under teams in all baseball on the Seattle Maners
also one of your top underd teams in baseball, and
they played another one on Wednesday as well. Five to one.
The Seattle Manners get the job done against the Reds.

(04:16):
As for the Reds, Andre Rabbit does give up a
pair of so home runs in six innings going deep.
Mitch Garver is first home run as a Seattle Manner
and then Cal Rawly is third. Meanwhile, you would have
a home run a little bit later on from Josh Ross.
He goes zep off of Lucas Simms. It's versus the
campaign at Sims gives up three runs to two thirds
of ben Ning before Alexiss gets far as Oude. The
bullpen score is but long form of offense. For the Reds,

(04:38):
you had Ellie da La Cruz get his fifth home
run season off of Bryce Miller. Miller was great in
this game, though it gives up that home run. That's
the only hit he would allow in six innings before
Trent Thornon also both gave spire from there, I'll lend
a squirrel setting so solid joining from the Seattle Manners
here now on a three game win streak and the
Atlanta Braves in ten innings, they find a way to

(04:58):
be able to get it done against the Houston Answers
are now six and fourteen thus far this season. It's
by count of five to four, and this was a
closing total of nine and a half. So Atlanta Braves,
who have been one of your top over teams at
all of baseball. They play a rare under. As for
the Atlanta Braves, they didn't necessarily get the world's greatest start.
For Max Free giving up three runs over the course
of five innings and going a home run going deep.

(05:18):
For Houston, you burnn Olvers get his fifth home run
in the campaign, and Mauricio Duba on off of Jesse
Chaves he gets his first home run season. For Shaves,
he allows that home run and is henning work. But
aj Minter Joe yu Menez combining for two scrolls of settings,
and then Rossilloglaci has Pierce Johnson. They both give you
a scroll of setting a piece in for Atlanta, pair
of home runs in this one off JP France Ron
Lacune Junior just his first home run of the season.

(05:41):
He's been moving the line, but that was just his
first home run in the campaign. At Marcel Zuna his eighth.
That's the most out there in the National League. As
for France, he loves those two home runs, but that's
all you the love and five innings, so not too
bad there. Ryan Presley, though he gives up two runs,
one of which was earned in his otning of work,
Rufio Moltoto, Josh Hater, Brian Obray, they all lent a
squirrel setting, but I'll go fifteen plus pitches and for

(06:01):
seth Martinez gives up the under and run in the
ten tenning that gusts his team. The game for the
Pittsburgh Pirates does seem as though their offense is starting
to cool down a little bit as well. They fall
to the New York Metropolitans by count of nine to one.
And for the Pirates, they've now scored three runs for
fear in four other last five games, and they did
not get the start that they had desired in this one.
As Bailey Fulter he gives up two runs off the

(06:22):
course of five innings. While it's not the start that
they desired, not too bad and then the bullpen just
completely with this game on fire, David Bennar three runs
surrendered in two thirds, winning Hunter Stratton, he gives up
four runs in the ending. Is Falter and Stratton both
a lot of home runs in this one. For the Mets,
you had Sli Marte go deep off a fulter third
home run season and Harrison Bader his first off of
Straandon and least several Reno starting to look relatively solid

(06:45):
right now, one under and runs surrendered in six innings
before one Lopez, Garrett Hartwig along Jake Diekman all supply
score of setting is for the Pittsburgh Priors one of
six with men in scoring position and does not compare
to our DK. Now we're going right a pick team
though in the air z the Diamondbacks, who went one
of eleven with men in scoring position in the first
six innings and that costed them this one five to three.

(07:06):
The Cubs are able to get it done. Jordan Wicks
was not long for this game, gives up two runs
over the course of four and a third innings. You
didn't allow home run to the Marte, parte of Katel
Marte's fifth home run season. Then when it was too
a little too late, Jock Peterson goes zipof with Drew
Smiley for a second home round season, and Spiley got
the final two outside of the game, giving up that
home run, but Hayden was nesky out of the bullpen

(07:26):
four scoreless, so a piggyback effort. Friday the eight Cubs
and for the Cubs, they go three of six with
men in scoring position with Cody Belager way deep off
of Brandon Fought his third home run season for fought
a little bit of a rough one for him. He's
a tough luck loser, giving up three runs but only
two of which will earned in seven innings. There were
triovers out there in the field for Arizona that did
not help out of his cause. Joe Mann to ply

(07:48):
from there, gives up two runs in a third event. Hang,
and then you did have a nice debut five outside
of the bullpen scores from Justin Martinez. So Diamondbacks unable
to patch work that one, and taking a look at
the top team in all baseball, this is about as
much of an under as it gets. One to zero.
The Brewers get it done against the San Diego Patres.
Brewers twelve overs, five hundreds as far this season, and

(08:10):
for San Diego Michael King, well, he looked like a
king in this one. He punched out ten, gave up
one run in seven two thirds endings, but problem with
his offense generally nothing as Juandi peralta. He got out
out the bullpen scroreless as well as for the Brewers,
they generate in this one just three is, but they
find a way to be able to piecemeal things together
with their pitching as Bryan Utson along with Pryce Wilson,

(08:30):
they did a night shot combined for six scrol of
settings and then Abner, you rebachol piumps out of this
pegetto they all lent a squirrel of settings. So the
Brewers now eleven and six and they find a way
to be able to win that one. Another one of
your top over teams in the Baltimo Orioles, they played
a little bit of a lower scoring game on Wednesday
as well. They take down the Minnesota Twins by accountford
to shoot. The Orioles now eleven overs five hundred two

(08:52):
pushes thus far this season, and for Pablu Loopez it
was a good start. He gives up a solo run
over the course of six innings, says going deep off
of him Gunner Henderson his sixth home run season. Anthony Santander,
though he would go deep off of Steven o'kirk for
his fourth home run season. Then a walk off two
run shot to be able to cover the run line
from Cedric Mollens his fifth home run season. That comes

(09:13):
off with Griffin Jackson, he gets jacked up, giving up
two runs and a third of night O Kurt gave
up his home run while getting to outside the bullpen,
and Barrock Stewart he was able to give you one
and a third inning squirrels. Meanwhile, for Baltimore they had
to throw out there a old guy, old thirty four
year old Albert Sworez. Five and two thirds innings scoreless.
Just an absolutely tremendous performance. And I mean that's just

(09:35):
tremendously bad. If you're the Minnesota Twins senior you Cano,
Craig Kimbrell. They both found a squirrel as setting well,
Geegan Akin gotten out of the bullpen Scuress and Danny
Clumb Jacob Webb, they combined for an ending they didn't
allow a run along the way allowing quite a few
runs was the Toronto Blue Jays bullpen. They fall to
the New York Yankees, this by kind of six and
four us for the Yankees. Marcus Strowman. Two runs were

(09:56):
undered in five and a third innings, including a home
run as th and Varshow went deep twice in this
one third on run. The campaign comes off of Strowman.
Fourth comes off of Caleb Ferguson. As Ferguson does a
lot of two runs in an nning, but Ian Hamilton
Victor Gonzalez they can buy for five outs of the
bullpen squalls Clay Holmes, a squirrel is sength to be
able to pick up the save in for the New
York Yankees. They entered into this one down by account

(10:16):
of four to one entering the eighth, two to four
going into the ninth, but you had yourself a pair
of big time home runs from John carlosan and Jon Soto.
For Soto is fourth home run the campaign that comes
off of Edward Cabrera, that comes off of Genesis Cabrera,
and then Eric Swanson is back in the fold and
he gives up home run to John Carlos in his
fifth home run season. For Swanson, he gives up three

(10:37):
runs in a third event ning Genesis Cabrera. He gives
up that home run and is two innings of work.
And Tim Maza he allowed to run in an nning
as well as Trevor Richards. He was able to supply
a squirrel of setting. But the Blue Jays also oh
of eight with men in scoring position. That's a little
bit less than terrific. What is terrific though, if you
took post prices on the Washington Nationals in the series
against the Dodgers a day two of three and they

(10:58):
shut out the Dodgers two to zero. The final for Washington,
you had Jake Gervan be able to sply six scorrels settings.
From there, Hunter v Robert Garcia combined for two squirrel
settings and then Kyle Finnegan squirrel setting. Meanwhile, for the
Washington Nationals CJ. Abrams main form of offense, he was
able to get a home run number five of the
season off of the young guns Surter and Landon Knack,
who he wasn't bad in this one allows that's all

(11:20):
run but two runs a total of course of five innings.
Michael Grove completes three scoreless Alex Vesia gives you a
score of signing as well. But hard to win a
game where your team scores zero runs and you do
not see a lot of scoring in this one from
the Cleveland Guardians either. As a matter of fact, it
was a goose egg two to zero. The Boston Red Sox.
They find a way to get it done. It's Ben
Lively not a bad start. He gives up two runs

(11:40):
at five innings, including a home run to counter Wong,
his third home run of the campaign, and that's all
that Tannerrock would need complete game nine punch outs, gives
up just three. It's along the way is Cleveland. They
could get absolutely nothing going whatsoever. And also for Cleveland,
you'd have Nick Sandlin give you a scorel of setting
and West Parsons the Persons experiment two squirrel of settings,

(12:01):
but absolutely nothing doing here for the Guardians. And if
you had the Phillies run line, well, nothing doing for
you here. As the Colrad Rockies score five runs in
the eighth, iend to toast this one for you. This
was just absolutely brutal. Phillies get up by count of
seven to one and they don't cover the run line
seven to six. They manage to win outright, and that's
always brutal. I don't know about you, but if I

(12:22):
lay a run and a half on the run line,
and I did so with the Philadelphia Phillies, so I'm
one of the people. I took this loss as well.
I would either want them to win by multiple runs
or lose outright. The last thing I want is for
them to win by one run as Ryan Feldner got destroyed,
giving up six runs in five and a third innings,
including a pair of home runs. Kyle Schwarber took them
deep for his fourth home run season and Trey Turner

(12:43):
down for what his second. Then Shorebert would a little
bit later go deep off of Peter Lambert for his
fifth home run season. Lambert gives up that solim run
and one and two thirds innings and justin Lawrence, it's
squirrel is setting. But for the Coyrad Rockies, they do
all this while going just two of ten with men
in scoring position as could it's the first hand gives
up an underrun while getting ten strikeouts at six innings

(13:03):
was tremendous. Junior Marte Squirrels saying in Greg Risoto has
really been the main consonant in this Phillies bullpen gives
up five runs in a third of an end, Jeff
Hoffman from there gives you a pair of outs out
of the bullpen, and joselle Verado able to stem the
tide with a squirrel of setting. But that was not
great to say least. What is, though, is the Oakland
as as an underdog ten and one on the run

(13:24):
line are the A's as a plus one and a
half underdog in their last eleven as an underdog, and
they went all right against the Saint Lewis Cardinals sins
p bbably kind of six to three as Steven Mascott
rock giving up five runs and five innings, going a
home run to Eseri Ruise his second home round the campaign.
From there, you did have Ryan Fernandez give up a
run in an inning and Matthew Libatory Givonni Geigos combine

(13:45):
for two score of settings. But Oakland had themselves a
nice stay out there in the bullpen. They're a tough
five team right now in terms of bullpenny right look
at Service Edge, Austin Adams, Mason Miller, they all lend
a squirrel of signing TJ McFarland in out out of
the bullpen. And for Paul Blackburn, not as great as start,
gives up three runs of five and two thirds innings,
but do find a way to be able to get
the job done and they're able to get that win

(14:06):
and also able to get a big win as well.
How about the La Angels coming back on the Tampa
Bay Race five to four. The final as a race
currently have the worst bullpen the ra in the Big leagues.
It is well north of six and that doom the
Rays on this day is as Zach Little give them
any solid Sarty gives up three runs over the course
of five and two thirds innings, did allow home run

(14:26):
to Mike Trout, his eighth of the campaign, tied for
the big league lead. From there you got Chris Zvinski
giving out of the bullpen, Sean Armstrong, Kevin Kelly, they
both want to score the setting, but Pete Fairbanks he
blows this one as he gives up two runs over
the course of an ending. As Amed Rosario was able
to go deep off a runner strickling for the race
to be able to build that lead a second home
run the campaign as Redvers was good in this game,

(14:46):
two runs, one of which was earned, giving up in
five and a third innings from their Adam Simber Hunter Strickland,
both used for twenty plus pitches. Stricklin gives up that
home run two runs a total and two innings and
Adam Simber one and two thirds ings scoreless. But Angels
sa I Rallius Anthony Rendon came up with a big
hit along Taylor Ward in the ninth innings. So the Rays,
they have been dealing with some issues as far the season.

(15:08):
Now they've got twelve overs to seven unders as far
this season. When the top marks out there in the
big leagues to the over end, if you're looking at
what we've all gotten thus far this season in Major
League Baseball, then more overs than unders. One are in
thirty six overs, so one are in thirty five hundreds
with plenty of pushes along the way, but unders are
starting to make a little bit of a run. And
so our road teams on the money line, road teams

(15:29):
one forty seven and one thirty two hitting at north
of fifty two and a half percent favorites overall, and
he had fifty eight point seven percent. If you're laying
the jute on the favorites, you've been taking it on
the chin. And what we all saw yesterday in baseball
was a sort of underdog day. Nine and seven were favorites.
So came those plus prices where your friend and we
did see ten hundreds of six overs in baseball on

(15:49):
Wednesday as well. So that's what we're seeing right now
on the baseball front end. That's what we all got
on Wednesday. Now let's turn it forward to Thursday with
our good friend Matt Joseph's better known as mid Major Matt,
and take a look at what props I've been catching
for him thus far this season. We'll do that next
right here on the Baseball Betting Shows myself Greg Peter said,
now a park the Vision Family.

Speaker 1 (16:06):
Podcast breaking down every game, every day in Major League Baseball.
This is the Baseball Betting Show. Here is your host,
Greg Peterson.

Speaker 2 (16:19):
Come aback, you love me, Las Vegas for the Baseball
Betting Show with myself Greg Peterson, now part of the
Vson Family Podcast. It is always great to be joined
by this man as mid Major Matt does an absolutely
tremendous job taking a look at this great game of baseball.
He does a little bit of everything over that AFTM network.
He's starting to get involved with some college football, looking
at spring games, getting stuff for that season. He does

(16:41):
a tremendous job on the college basketball Fronday and hear
when it comes to baseball season. He does great work
with regards to the props. You're able to follo him
on Twitter, slash cks and mid Major Matt all together
and you're able to catch his show Monday through Friday
out there if you're in the Richmond area on ESPN
Radio Richmond. It's called Border to Border and Matt always
great to have you board.

Speaker 4 (16:59):
Thank you a lot happier Matt now that the Sixers
moved on and got a victory over the Heat on
Thursday night.

Speaker 2 (17:04):
Yeah, absolutely, And with the seventy six ers they move
on and with us in baseball, it's a very very
long season in general. We're only about three weeks in,
so we are building towards the playoffs. But in the
first three weeks of what you've been able to gather
just would have been some things that have set out
to you. Maybe it's things that you pick correctly, maybe
it's things that you've been surprised bomb. But has there

(17:25):
been anything that's really stood out to you the first
three weeks of the baseball season.

Speaker 4 (17:29):
Well, obviously the Washington Nationals taking a series in LA
against the Dodgers that was impressive, with one of those
games coming against Tyler Glass now who was runaway potentially
the nl cy young early on in the season. But
the Nationals are continuing their contact ways much like they
were last year. A high contact team, a team that
has gone under in twelve of their fifteen K props

(17:49):
so far this season.

Speaker 3 (17:50):
So that was certainly interesting.

Speaker 4 (17:51):
And I feel like we're starting to get enough of
a sample size that you could start to least get
some leans and things like that with regards to who's
good against lefties, who's bad against left these who just
strikes out against everybody, A team like Minnesota who is
a very high strikeout team. I think nineteen twenty games
into the season, we're starting to see some solid trends.

Speaker 2 (18:10):
Yep, we certainly are. And it's been interesting to look
at that Oakland AC The offense has provided absolutely nothing whatsoever,
but you know that pitching has actually been rocks alid
as well, and with them they have been a trend
to the positive in my opinion. If if you've been
taking a look at their pitching, and have there been
any other teams like this where maybe you've been taking
a look at them and you thought, man, coming into

(18:32):
the year, I didn't think that they be this good.
But they've actually been Rocks so much like the A's
pitching that I was alluding to.

Speaker 3 (18:37):
Before, Well, I mean, I'll tell you this.

Speaker 4 (18:39):
I mean I thought that the Phillies were going to
get solid pitching from their top two and Wheeler and Nola,
but Ranger Suarez has thrown himself into the Cy Young
race as well, and Christopher Sanchez looked really good against
the Rockies in his last time out.

Speaker 3 (18:51):
And then Spencer Turnbull.

Speaker 4 (18:52):
I mean, obviously, so far, it's only been a couple
of starts, and things can start to change once they
get more video on it. But Spencer Turnbull has been
a pretty good five for the Phillies.

Speaker 3 (19:00):
So I thought that they.

Speaker 4 (19:00):
Were going to get one and two pretty solid, but
they've had a pretty solid rotation as a whole.

Speaker 3 (19:05):
And then you know, the Mets have played a little
bit better than I thought.

Speaker 4 (19:07):
Now the Mets have had a little bit of an
easier schedule and they get the Dodgers and the Giants
coming up on the on the West coast on a
road trip, so we'll see how good they are. But
you know, the Mets are playing some solid baseball. We'll
see if they can continue that through.

Speaker 2 (19:19):
Yep, we shall see on that front. As Matt Jo says,
better known, it's been major manag going to be right
here on the Baseball Betting Show, and it is going
to be interesting to take a look at that Philly
team moving forward. But the main team from the NLE
East that is going to be an action, that'd be
the Miami Marlins, and they are not among the list
of teams with positive surprises and really any fast at possible.

(19:39):
And right now they've got aj Buck who's going to
be going for them on Thursday, going against jameson tai On.
Right now, the early opening total at CIRCA is an eight.
I'm seeing most places posting a minus one fifty minus
one fifty five on this front end. I want to
get your thoughts on aj Buck because if you've been
playing walk props over on him, they've been catching very,
very easily, and that's probably the only and then he's

(20:00):
been able to cash for betters as far.

Speaker 3 (20:02):
You know, it seems like a good strategy.

Speaker 4 (20:03):
Almost in the preseason you're like, all right, maybe we'll
move him over and he'll work out and everything, and
it just hasn't worked out very long. And maybe he
has pretty good stuff, but as you mentioned, the walks
have been a massive issue. And for a guy who
is stretched out to probably like eighty five ninety pitches,
if you're going to use a lot of those to
get walks. That means you're not going to last very long,
and the Marlins bullpen has been taxed pretty early. You

(20:24):
look at some guys like Trevor Rodgers who are only
going five five and a change innings wise, So if
you're going to handicap the Marlins, and if you're going
to handicap Ajpuck, you're probably only looking at the first
five and that's probably where you're also looking for Jamison Tyon.
So far in his rehab starts, he's only gone three
and two thirds so far his last start, So I'll
be interested to see what the k PROP number is
for Jamison ty On. I always like to potentially go

(20:46):
under on certain guys, especially when it's their first major
league action coming off some rehab stints. He had four
strikeouts in three and two thirds, so maybe it'd be
kind of interesting to see what that number is. The
Marlins are hit or miss when it comes to contact.
Sometimes they've been over, sometimes they've been under. But I'll
be interested to see what we get from Jamison Tylan,
who may only be solid for four innings or so
in this one against the Marlins.

Speaker 2 (21:07):
YEP might be seeing a whole bunch of bullpen use
in this one. Puck as yet to be able to
complete five, so even if you're trying to take a
look at a first five, there's no guarantee that you
won't need to handicap the bullpens in this one. As
well as Matt Joseph's better known as been major band
showing me right here on the Baseball Betting Show and
want to get your thoughts on the Tampa bay Rays.
As with the Tampa bay Rays, the perception of this

(21:27):
team is always being so well rounded, having so many
guys that could come in give you good endings. But
right now they're dead last in the Lake in terms
of bullpenning area. But Ryan Pepiot has been a strikeout
artist for this team. They're playing host to the l
Angels with Griffin Canning having his frustrations and the rais
bottom minus one fifty or so favorite. How do you
take a look at a matchup like this with the
guy in Pepiot That can be inconsistent, but the swing

(21:49):
of misseduff has been very good thus far the season.

Speaker 4 (21:51):
Yeah, eleven strikeouts in Colorado, which eleven against Colorado isn't
two isn't that great because everybody's striking out Colorado it
feels like nowadays.

Speaker 3 (21:59):
But getting eleven strike out and course field.

Speaker 4 (22:01):
Now, granted he probably had a little bit of experience
at least being there with the Dodgers and then coming
back home and having six strikeouts and five innings against
the Giants.

Speaker 3 (22:09):
You know, we're getting a Ryan Pepio who's.

Speaker 4 (22:11):
Gone five six and five and two thirds innings so
far this season, so you're once again, if you want
to handicap him, you're only going to handicap the first
five innings most likely. I think it's interesting three of
the last four right handed starting pitchers against the against
the Angels have had seven strikeouts or more, including Zach Lttel,
who has good stuff, but like seven strikeouts stuff, I
just don't know if he does. Aaron Savali had eight,

(22:32):
and then Brian Bellow had eight when they took on
the Red Sox in Boston on the fourteen. So Pepio
is going to be a guy that you probably want
to lean towards the over. The other interesting thing when
you're handicapping games like this, it's a one to ten
Eastern time start time. The Angels team that has potentially
going to put some bench guys in. They are staying
on the road, so it's not like they're flying home.
They're going to Cincinnati afterwards. But always in these afternoon games,

(22:54):
you want to pay attention to lineups and there's more
backups than you're probably going to lean more towards the over,
especially with the starting picture like Pepio And.

Speaker 2 (23:01):
On a day like this, are you more inclined to
wait a little bit longer with your bets rather than
on like say Tuesday or Wednesday, where it's game one,
game two of a series.

Speaker 4 (23:10):
Yeah, certainly that's something you want to do. The problem
with the strikeout prop market is it moves. It moves
a lot, and that's why we always tell people to
have a lot of outs because different books have different numbers,
different juices and things like that. And certainly going to
your favorite site and going to like a you know,
a prop shop or type like that, and that gives
you the opportunity to watch all the props as they
go along. It's one of those things you kind of
have to weigh greg whether you want to have the

(23:32):
full lineup but maybe not get the juice you want,
or get the juice you want, but not know the
whole lineup. So that's kind of the conundrum of the
people who pay attention to this market. You know, a
couple of afternoon games. All the American League games are
in the afternoon, so that's something you certainly want to
watch for yep.

Speaker 2 (23:46):
And it's very situational as well, just like with betting
on spreads, when you've got a questionable player or something
like that, do you want to sacrifice like half a
point or a point to know whether or not they're
going to be in or out or do you want
to take it right away? So I do think that
that's always so important to really balance its joining me
on the show, we do have Matt Joseph's better known
it's been major Matt. Join to me right here on

(24:07):
the Baseball Betting Show. And this is going to be
an interesting Andy Caffre you. Jack Lighter is going to
be making his MLB debut for the Texas Rangers, former
number two overall pick. I remember what he was at Vanderbilt.
This guy was awesome going up against the Detroit Tigers
with us being a relative pick up game at a
total of eight and a half, how do you evaluate
a situation like this where Jack Lighter, I mean, he's

(24:29):
got a bigger name than most of these guys making
their MLB debut, but obviously when it comes to the
major league level, he's got absolutely no date on.

Speaker 4 (24:36):
Unfortunately, it feels like there are times where the especially
the online sportsbooks, just say, well, we don't know enough
about this guy, so we're not going to put a
number up. I assume they're going to put a number
on up on Jack Lighter. And you look at his
three minor league starts so far, nine strikeouts, six strikeouts
and ten strikeouts and going five innings six innings and
three and a third inning. So certainly that's something to

(24:57):
pay attention to that he will be stretched out if
he pitches pretty well. You always want to look at
the weather and an afternoon game, especially in the April
or so, there could be win, there could be rain.
That's something you also want to pay attention to. And
then you kind of want to see once again the
team that you're going up against. The Detroit Tigers so
far this season averaging five point five to seven strikeouts
per game against right handed starting pitchers. We just saw

(25:18):
Dame Dunning with five in that last game, John Gray
had seven, Michael Lorenzen had four, So you kind of
want to weigh a couple of different things here, but
I expect Jack Layer to pitch pretty well. You can
also look briefly at his spring training numbers, because that
was his opportunity to go up against a major league talent.
And in his last spring training outing against Colorado, there's
that team again.

Speaker 3 (25:36):
You had five strikeouts in two and two thirds innings.

Speaker 4 (25:39):
Well, that is if by my crude math as eight
outs and five of them were via the strikeouts, So
he has good stuff there. I'll be very interest to
see if the books put a number up, and I'll
be very interested to see what that number is. If
it's a four and a half, I might look over
if it's like a five and a half or a
six and a half. Seeing his minor league numbers, I
might consider an under here, because if he does get
touched up, he may not last long in this game

(25:59):
because they want to reserve the guy, keep him happy, and.

Speaker 2 (26:01):
Certainly that is going to be a fun one to
be able to take a look at. And then when
it comes to a game like this one with the
Guardians and the Boston Red Sox. Right now, we don't
have a lot of openers up because with Red Sox,
they themselves didn't know who's going to be opening the
game until after their game on Wednesday, and it's going
to be Brendan Bernardino, and you have to figure that
he's going to be an opener for Cooper. Chriswell, is
there any sort of position that you'd be willing to

(26:22):
take in a game like this Red Sox versus Guardians
game with DraftKings opening this up with a total nine
and a half and Red Sox right around minus one
twenty five.

Speaker 4 (26:29):
Well, and you're looking at Carlos Carrasco, guy who has
not been great so far this season. Granted he's only
given up one and run in his last two starts,
but five walks in four and two thirds and three
walks in three innings the last two times out, and
so you're not expecting Carlos Carrasco to go deep in
this game. You're not expecting Carlos Carrasco. You might look
at the walks over and stuff like that. A Boston

(26:50):
offense that's very hot and cold so far this season.
They don't score a ton of runs and Ben Lively
having a bunch of strikeouts against him was certainly a
bit of a surprise here. So Carrasco, who has only
had two six and three strikeouts so far this season,
might come into play depending upon what his k prop is.
And the one I'm looking at here is four and
a half with the juice to the under, So it's
something you may want to consider here. But once again,

(27:11):
one thirty five Eastern Time games. You want to check
out the lineups, you want to check out the weather,
make sure everything is okay in this one. But Danner
Happs sparing that bullpen means that Boston's going to have
a full complement of arms in this game, and that
sometimes makes it hard for a baseball team to hit.
You know, you're going to see a bunch of different
pitchers over two or three innings a piece. So I
might lean to Boston in this sort of situation, especially

(27:31):
if the number is short enough for me to play.

Speaker 2 (27:34):
No doubt about it. And we've got one game left
down the card, which you'll just get that on a
five game card. Thursdays they tend to be getaway days
for a lot of teams, but we do have ourselves,
the Diamondbacks and the Giants, with Logan Web going for
the Giants at as a minus won sixty five or
so favorite at a total of eight. Just how do
you take a look at a game like this doing that?
Logan Web, He does have some pretty dramatic Homan Rhodes,

(27:56):
buts and just has been pretty dominant throughout his career
at home.

Speaker 4 (27:58):
And the interesting thing here is this is his fifth
start of the season. I remember he did get the
start against San Diego. He's going to face San Diego twice.
He's face the Dodgers and he faced the Rays here.
The one thing he kind of noticed with Logan Web
is he's not striking as many guys as he has
in the past. Five strikeouts in his first two starts
and then three and four. This number is four and
a half in a bunch of different places. And here's

(28:20):
the interesting thing. The juice is actually towards the over
and when you've got an Arizona Diamondbacks team that's actually
pretty good against contact, they're only averaging three point sixty
seven strikeouts per game against right handed starting pitchers.

Speaker 3 (28:31):
So far.

Speaker 4 (28:31):
They've only gone over their total twice this season, only
two guys have gone over the four and a half.
That is Luis Gill for the New York Yankees and
our guy Cal Quantrell had six strikeouts in six innings
in Colorado against this Arizona team, So that's rather interesting.

Speaker 3 (28:45):
Here's the thing kind of way.

Speaker 4 (28:47):
You can either take the plus price potentially on the
under four and a half strikeouts for Logan Web who
had three, four, four and five last year, he kind
of hung around that number and a bunch of starts
against Arizona last year. Or you maybe wait for the
books to flip the number to five. But the juice
gets a little bit insane on the under. So that's
another one of the things that you kind of have
to worry about when it comes to these props is
how are the books going to do it. Are they

(29:08):
going to give you the lower number, the number that's
a little tough for the hit, or are they going
to give you.

Speaker 3 (29:12):
The higher number but they're going to make you pay
a price for.

Speaker 2 (29:14):
It, absolutely, and that's such a balancing act on that front.
And Matt, just to have one more question for you
as well, just in terms of a slate like this
where we've only got five games on the card. Is
this a day where you might be just preparing a
little bit more for future days, trying to pick up
on some other things, or how do you handle a
day like this where we have just such a little
action out there for baseball.

Speaker 4 (29:34):
And it's a tough day, because you know, I want
to see what Jack Lighter's k prop number is, I
want to see what Jamison Tyn's number is.

Speaker 3 (29:41):
Basically, you enter the.

Speaker 4 (29:41):
Game and basically what's going to happen is when I'm
done with this interview, I'm going to kind of decide
what are my numbers that I want for these k props,
and if they come out, I'm going to take them.
If they don't, then I I am going to sit.
As you said, this season is a very long season.
I've been kind of going pretty well. I've had some
good numbers as of late, hitting some k props, you know,
these last couple of days. So I don't want to
kind of ruin a good streak by going and forcing

(30:04):
something on a five cards slate. I feel like in
every sport, and you could probably agree or disagree, every
sport that has these smaller cards, the books are a
little sharper because there's less games for them to have
to pay attention to. There is no NBA, you know,
the NHL. I don't believe there's any games in the NHL.
So they have their one hundred percent focus on this
Major League Baseball slate, which means we'll get the best
numbers and sometimes the toughest to beat.

Speaker 2 (30:25):
But a man that does a great job, I'll be
able to decipher it all. And a man that does
nice work on so many different fronts seby you, Matt.
I know you're very hard at work taking a look
at all these props. I know that you're preparing as
well for the college sports season in general, college football,
and you know it's a long ways out. I know
that you do a great job on the college basketball
beat as well. Let the good people at home know
it's all on top for you, and how people can

(30:46):
fall along on social media to other platforms.

Speaker 3 (30:48):
Yeah, I'm in major Matt on Twitter.

Speaker 4 (30:49):
If you ever have any questions about player props or
things like that, I have my strikeout spreadsheet that I
use that gives pretty accurate numbers as to how the
season has gone so far. Because we all have one goal,
we all want to beat the books this weekend. I
might head up to Harrisonburg to go check out the
JMU spring game this weekend. See how the Dukes are
doing one year after a successful year they had year
two in the FBS. And yeah, college football, college basketball,

(31:11):
it never stops and certainly have to stay on top
of it well before the season begins.

Speaker 2 (31:15):
Absolutely, and a man that does stay on top of it,
and a man that does a great job is Matt Joseph.
It's better known has been Major Matt. It is always
great to get him on the show. So he does
a great job looking at baseball betting in so many
different angles and doing a great job on the prop market.
So big thanks to Matt for joining me on The
Baseball Beting Show now part of the Vson Family Podcasts
and coming in next a short but fun slate for
this Thursday and give you guys, fix it and analysis

(31:37):
on all five games as we have them.

Speaker 1 (31:39):
On, breaking down every game every day in Major League Baseball.
This is the Baseball Betting Show. Here is your host,
Greg Peterson.

Speaker 2 (31:51):
E a beg You'll love you Las Vegas for Baseball
Betting Shoe with myself Greg Peterson, now part of the
Vson Family podcasts. Always great to be joined by Matt
Joseph better known has been Major Matt doing a tremendous
job take a look at this great game of baseball.
Every single time he joins me, feel like we get
a little bit smarter as he does great workover at
FTN networking ESPN Radio out there in Richmond, and he

(32:12):
does such a nice job looking at baseball on so
many different fronts with regards to the props that he does.
So big thanks to him for joining me in the
last segment. Now it is that time the podcast they
give you picks in analysis on every game on the
betting board for this Baseball Thursday, as we touch them all.

Speaker 4 (32:26):
If a game is listed on the betting board, Greg
has a side and a total on it, so it
is time to touch them all.

Speaker 2 (32:32):
Due note that as per usual, any changes there made
to these plays will be listed up on my Twitter
slash x feed at you and n S forty one
and very simple in terms of the order that we're
going to be going in the two National League games
and time order up first, and then the three American
League games and time order are going to be up
after that, and any changes are going to be up
on my Twitter slash x feed at you and at
underscoredy one. So let's get things started with nine to

(32:53):
fifty one. I'm fifty two on the board. It is
the Miami Marlins on the road facing up against the
Chicago Cubs. Jamis to Taian goes for the Cubs, and
AJ Puck is on the bump for Miami. Opening total
at circus eight unders, minus one twenty d overs. Even
with the Cubs, you're finding them between minus one fifty two,
minus one sixty, anywhere between plus one thirty to plus
one thirty to seven. That number on the Marlins right now.

(33:14):
The only place that has a run line up on
this game is Circa and the way you run a
half with the Cubs, you're getting plus one forty. That's
exactly what I'm looking at. I would be willing to
take pretty much anything north of a plus one tenure
with that Cub's run line as AJ Puck is just
watching the world, and that's part of the reason why
I'm on the over in this ordeal as well. For
AJ Puck fourteen walks and ten and two thirds innings,

(33:34):
he's got a five sixty or so eer and his
fielding independent is a full point higher. It is very
clear that this experiment with him starting should have already
come to an end, but for some reason it's not,
and you can fully take advantage as for James to
tie on, not like he was necessarily overly sharp at
the minor league level as well, was able to get
a little bit north of eleven strikeouts per nine ennings

(33:55):
in the minor league appearances I did make. But had said,
I do have my question marks with him making his
first big league start here. I don't think that he's
necessarily going to give you a lot of length through
just six and a third innings, and his two minor
league appearances, wasn't walking a ton of guys or anything
like that, but was getting hit around quite a bit,
and wouldn't be surprised if you see his velocity down
a little bit as well, as he's never been necessarily

(34:15):
a massive swing of miss guy. And he gets to
go up against the Miami Merlin seem that if you
want a soft landing spot, here you go, because right
now they've got one main power bat in Jake Berger,
and right now he's the only a bit of an injury.
Luisa Raias along Tim Anderson, they're moving the line. Both
of these guys inting between about a two sixty five
to a two to eighty. So that's helped them out
a little bit. But Josh bell A, Sus Sanchez, Nick Orton,

(34:36):
Emmanuel Rivera all inning a two to ten or lower.
That has been an issue though Gordon, he has been
able to give you three home runs, but you don't
have a lot of pop with this lineup. If you
do look at the Baseball Savant numbers, they are doing
for some positivity. They're hitting about thirty points lower then
their expected batting average, but who knows when that is
going to be coming in With the Chicago Cups, it
seems to every north of seven runs per game when
they're at home. That is the top market in the

(34:57):
big leagues. Cody Bellinger has had his struggles this season,
but was able to bust out yesterday against the Ears
and the Diamondbacks. You've had Michael Bush provide six home runs.
He was on a five home run game streak a
few days ago, so he has been tremendous as he
as a key both ending above a threwer. You've been
able to have the catcher spot. With Miguel Almaya to
relatively slid as well, He's been found a way to

(35:18):
be able to get on base. Jan Gomes has been
a little bit rough to begin the season, but on
a you take a look at this Cubs lineup, they
do a nice job, but'll be able to hit at home.
Bullpen is a little bit of an issue. The Cubs
are in the bottom ten in the Big leagues with
regards to Bullpenny Ray. They saved a lot of arms
yesterday with Hayden Wazntski though being able to give you
a nice appearance. It's been a case where the likes
of Luke Little Edward Alslab they've been relatively solid. But
the injury to Julian Maryweather something that you do want

(35:40):
to take note of it and wouldn't be surprised to
see the long reliever of daniel Leo Palencia in this game,
perhaps Keegan Thompson as well. And then for the Miami
Marlands this is bullpen is terrible, second worst in the
big leagues with regards to era. They're not arrested, they're
not good when they are arrested. Six O Sanchez for
me gutienis Birch Smith, Andrew Nardi, George Sorano, all these
guys are giving you a well north of a sixty

(36:02):
r like. You don't have really too many trustworthy guys
in this bullpen. So I do think that that's going
to lead to the Cups having a nice offensive outpers here.
So have I told it at eight point six side
like the over, and with the Cups, I'm going to
be willing to lay a run and a half with
that run line nine fifty three, nine fifty four on
the benning board. The San Francisco Giants playoffs to the
Arizona Diamondbacks. Ryan Nelson goes for this sinks and you've
got a ogan web on the bump for the Giants.

(36:23):
With the Giants, you're going to be finding the many.
We're tweening about minus one sixty five to minus one
seventy favorites plus one forty two to plus one fifty two.
That number on Arizona eight is the total under nine
one fifteen. The over is minus one on five. And
to play a run and a half with the Giants
and we get a plus one thirty, need at least
a plus one twenty two. And that's where I'm going
to be leaning towards for Logan Web throughout his career
any ra more than one point two points lower at

(36:44):
home rather than away from moment. He has been a
little bit up and down this far this season, but
not due to hard contact or anything like that. It's
swinging with stuff, not necessarily terrific. Seventeenth strikecouts in twenty
three and two third settings. Has never been some sort
of a strikeout artist or anything like that. And really
the crux of his issues is the fact that he
wont to against the La Dodgers earlier in the season,
gave him five runs to three and two thirds sunings
pass that and his other three shirts has given up

(37:06):
either one or two runs, So I think that he's
going to be fine in this spot. Though. The Arizona
Diamondbacks top ten team in the Big Leagues with regards
runs per game. You've got kentl Marte of the Marte
Parte Alon Floridos Courriel both providing five home runs. Both
of these guys doing a solid job moving the line.
The big thing for the team is that he wanted
to see Corman Carroll get things going just one home run,
hitting only a two twenty five on base percent has

(37:26):
still been there, but likes if Jake McCarthy, Blase Alexander,
they've been able to do a nice job as well
as Christian Walker. But I do think that the Giants
are going to start to wake up with their bats
a little bit as well. You've had a Michael Conforto
along with Matt Chapman supply four home runs. Now a
lot of the power bats for these Giants haven't necessarily
done a great job, but be able to get on base.
Chapman Therios Strada both have a sub two seventy five

(37:46):
on base thus far the season. Wilmer Flores has been
a little bit up and down as well, but Lamont
Way Junior, him hitting well above a three fifty has
been nice for the seam orde soil there. He's been
able to give you about a three fifty on base.
He supplied three home runs as well in Jungle Lee.
It feels like he's been getting a little bit robbed
at the plate. He's been putting really nice contact on
the ball in general, so we should see some positivity there.

(38:07):
But I don't think we're going to see a lot
of positivity for Ryan Nelson. He actually pitched significantly better
on the road rather than at home last season. Last season,
at home he had an ERA though was north of
a seven fifty a sub foro era when he was
away from home, but for his career four eighty eight
fielding depending four ninety one ERA. He's been getting a
few more swing submisses this year, but still giving up
one point three on runs for nine ninnings, three and

(38:27):
a half walks for nine and nnings, and he's backed
up by a bullpen that it's like average, it's not great,
it's not terrible. Ben Jarvis has been able to come
in and give you good innings. Joe Mantiply was in
the game yesterday and that's probably a little bit of
positive for the Diamondbacks because he is not good, and
that means that they're not going to be using him today.
I like Ryan Thompson, I'd like the other Nelson and
Kyle Nelson, but I do think that for the Giants

(38:47):
getting back home, they're gonna be able to put back
to ball. I do think that both of these bullpens
do give up a few runs. As for the Giants,
they're in the bottom eight in terms of bullpenning area
as well. Rodgers Squared has been relatively saw it in
Taylor and Tyler Rodgers, but Ryan Walker a little it
up and down. When you look to guys like Nickavloon company,
that is not necessary a place where you want to be.
Though Chamileon of all really good closer and should be
able to close the door on the Diamondbacks. I do

(39:08):
think that the Giants get to Ryan Nelson. So looking
at that run line of the Giants and semi total
at eight point two, I also like the over nine
to fifty five, nine to fifty six on the card.
It is the La Angels on the read facing off
against the Tampa Bay. Ray says, you've got Ryan Pepiot
on the bump for the Rais and Griffin Canning is
on the bump for the AVOs. A half is a
total over his minus one fifteen, the under is minus
one o five and with a Raiser between minus one

(39:28):
fifty to minus one fifty five favorites plus one thirty
plus one thirty seven that number on the Angels, you're
able to lay a run and a half and get
about a plus one thirty five here with the Rais
and Ibe, you won't think a plus twent eighteen or higher,
so I'm gonna be looking at that run line for
Ryan Pepiot. He's been giving up a little bit too
much hard contact, but he's getting nearly eleven strikeouts per
nine innings, has been able to have some very nice

(39:49):
showings in general. What really did jack up his numbers
was that season opening start against the Texas Rangers where
he gave up six but since then last eleven innings,
it's given up two home runs four runs to total
in his last seas so I think they're starting to
find his groove a little bit. And Griffith Canny just
as on, and I like Gryffin Canning. He's able to
give you some good swinging with stuff. I feel like
he's been a guy that has gotten some bad luck

(40:10):
as well, but he's giving up five home runs at
thirteen and two thirds innings as far. This season was
pretty much a gong show against the Boston Red Sox
in that set of series, gave up eleven runs and
four home runs in eight and two thirds innings, and
it's back to buy a bullpen. I'm just not very
bullish on You've got a lot of reclamation projects and
just cast off relievers from other teams like Carson, former Hunters, Strickland,

(40:32):
Adam simber Ose c Serano. Not necessarily something that's amazing,
though Carlos is sevens a long bad more than the
eighth and ninth. Ennis have been relatively solid, but the
question is ken they get there. For them and for
the Tampa Bay Race, you just need a little bit
more out of a add as Randia Rose Raina. Both
of these guys two sixty five on base or lower
combined three home runs between the two of them, and
it's really been nobody other than Easoc Breads providing the power.

(40:54):
He's got five home runs at three to sixty five
on base, Jered Calbreo, Amid Rosario. They're able to move
the line as well, but need a little bit more
pop from what you got a season ago. So I
think that that is going to be massive in for
the La Angels. It's just a case where this team
is very top heavy. Logan O Hopi has been really
good at being able to get on base. He's got
a four to seventeen on base hitting at three forty.

(41:14):
And then Mike Trout along Taylor Ward, these are two
of your top home round hitters in the Big leagues
Ward six home runs, three twenty five on base mister Trout,
he's hitting at two to eighty five with eight home runs,
that leads the leg and hey, Anthony Rendon, he's starting
to give you a little bit of something. But former
number one overall picked me Key moniacs zach netto National
Aeronax alling below the Windows Live two hundred. It makes

(41:37):
this a very top heavy el Angel Steve and I
think that that'll allow Ryan Pepiote to have quite a
bit of success in this one. Now, the question is
can the Rays bullpen be able to fortify itself as
they're currently dead last of the Big leagues in terms
of bullpenny right, I don't expect that to be the
case at the end of the season. You've seen so
many good performances since Simon time again from likes of Jason,
Adam Campouchet a Pete Fairbanks. Fairbanks has been a little

(41:58):
bit off kilter as far as the season, but I
fully expect these guys to be able to get back
to the form that they had a season go. It's
pretty much all these guys had to help three five
yr a and I do think that they're going to
figure it out here I did somebody told at eight
point four. I like the under as I do think
that Griffin Canning gets a little bit more online, but
I do like the run line of the Tampa Bay Rays.
Won't take anything to roth with plus one twenty Now
we might DK network right to pick. This is nine

(42:19):
fifty seven, nine to fifty eight on the card. The
Detroit Tigers are playing us to the Walker Texas Rangers.
Jack Lighter makes HISWB debut for the Rangers, and he
looks a lighter it up against the Detroit Tigers, who
throw out their kent Toba EIGHTA. This is a relative
pick up game. Both teams are any rotween minus one
of five to one minus one tenny and after the
total unders minds went to fifteen, the overs minus one
to five and my right up here is going to

(42:39):
be on the Rangers money line set them out of
minus one twenty six. Now, those that listen to the
podcasts in the past know that I typically don't bat
guys making their first career start. I'm want to make
an exception for Jack Whighter, though, as he was the
number two overall pick coming out of Vanderbilt a few
seasons going twenty twenty one, and if you look at
what he did in the PCL thus far the season,

(43:00):
as far as small sample size, but three seventy seven
ERA with fifteen point seven strikeouts to one point nine
walks for nine. And he said, if you look at
a bigger sample size the career that he said in
the miners one point six strikeouts for nine and Kenny
sometimes get it around a little bit hard. Yes, but
you get to go up against the Tigers team that
entered into the day on Wednesday with the second fewest

(43:20):
home runs per game of any team out there in
the big league end. For the Tigers, they just had
a tough time being able to put up runs in general,
everything about three point five runs for contest. That is
a bottom five marks out there in the big league's end.
For the Detroit Tigers, you just need to find guys
that have just a little bit more, shall we say, consistency.
If you're a sell at Carry Carpenter, Matt Feeley, they're
all aiding at least a two to ninety, but none

(43:40):
of these guys are really providing pop other than Carry
Carpenter got Marcanna Riley Green, both giving you three home runs.
But both of these guys are all sitting below two
twenty five. I we'll say they're on base percentages are
both above at three fifty. But these two guys, Spencer Turklesen,
you're able to throw in their hobby by as is
one of the biggest ways of money in all sports.
And Cold Keith, these are your top five players in
terms of total ipats season. They're all hitting it to

(44:01):
twenty two or lower. And you've got a Texas Rangers
team that, despite the fact that the deep ball's not
been working for them thus far in nineteen games as
far this season they have only been able to supply
fifteen home runs, they're still finding a way to be
a top half of the Big league's offense in terms
of runs per game. Why Langford is doing a good
job being able to reach base, I think that he's
gonna bust out sooner rather than later. And then Corey

(44:21):
Seeger hasn't necessarily been giving you a lot of home runs,
but he's still been very consistent finding away on base,
hitting nearly a three hundred with a three to eighty
on base as well. Jared Walsh after a hot start
to the season, he along with Evan Carter, have been
a little bit cold, but still I have a lot
more faith in this lineup rather than the Detroit Tigers. Now,
I will say this about the Tigers, number one team
in the big leagues in terms of bopenny right, it's

(44:43):
gonna fall off. They're not gonna be able to maintain
like a buck eighty era for the entirety of the season.
But got a lot of guys that are giving you
great endings. Shelby Miller, Andrew Chafin, Alex Lang, Will Vest
all these guys have been very rock solid. But they've
got Kent toma Aida on the bumpoof as a sixy
r and a six fIF fifty eight fielding and dependent is.
He has allowed four home runs of fifteen innings as

(45:04):
far this season. Looked a little bit better in his
most recent start against the Minnesota Twins, but he's just
been in rough form in general since the back half
of the twenty twenty three season. His last ten regular
season starts three plus runs runner in six of them.
I think that Jack Lader goes out there is able
to lighter it up. He's backed up by a bullpen
that is about twentieth in the big leagues in terms
of VRA. But I do like the fact that they

(45:24):
bringing David robertson Kirby Yates. I think that Jacob Lats
will be able to give the team a little bit
of production as well. So I ride to pick that
is going to be on the Rangers money line in
terms of total. I did some mine up at eight
point four. I do think that Mada is going to
start to figure it out a little bit more, and
I think that lighter as himself a really nice first start.
So I like the under and my right up that
is going to be on the Texas Rangers money line,

(45:44):
and graft things up with nine fifty nine, nine to
sixty on the banking board, the Boston Red Sox players,
the Cleveland Guardians. Carlos Cookie Catasco is on the bump
for Cleveland and Brenna Bernadino is on the bump for Boston.
Boston is a minus one twenty five favorite. Plus one
oh five is that number on Cleveland nine and a
half is he totally under his mines one fifteen and
he over is minus one oh five now with Brendan
Bernardino he is going to be the opener in this game,

(46:06):
and you gotta figure that he's gonna go about two
or so innings. And we've seen Brendon Bernardino and the
openers role, and he's been not bad. Like you take
a look at what he's done on the bullpen for
the Boston Red Sox, says join the team last season.
He's been able to pose up with Boston about a
three h five year a. He doesn't give up a
lot of our contact, he gets strikeouts, he's a perfect
two ending guy. And then you have to figure that

(46:28):
Cooper Criswell from there is most likely going to be
the bull guy. Is he did get a start a
little bit earlier in the season for the Boston Red Sox.
It was not great, it was not terrible. He went
four innings. He did give up a home run along
the way, but all on all, there is a little
bit of upside there was in the Rays organization prior
to this, and so he's been a little bit more
of a pitch of contact guy. And he goes up
against the Cleveland Guardians team that they don't necessarily have

(46:49):
great power, but it's better than it was a season
ago when they were dead last in the big leagues
with their guards of home runs. You've been able to
have Josh Naylor be your main man four home runs.
He's been hitting at three twenty eight. It's been absolutely tremendous,
and just have a lot of guys to find a
way on base for the seam, Gabriel Arias along Stephen
Quanner both thinking above a three hundred. You've had Andre
Semenez go solid job, being able to move the line
and Jose Ramirez he's up to three home runs. It's

(47:10):
been a little bit hot and cold this season, but
he can sends him picking it up. For the Boston
Red Sox Mayordials, just so many injuries right now that
it does hamper this lineup. Tyler O'Neill's right now day
to day and he has been their main masher, especially
with what we've been seeing with Rafael Devers both being
heard and when he's been out there being in effective
hitting below of the nose sign of two hundred and
for O'Neil, he's already got seven home runs thus far

(47:32):
this season. For our Boston, it's all about can you
get something out of some of these younger guys as
Jaron Duran, he's been hitting about a three hundred and
it's don a nice job finding a way to be
able to move the line. In Tristan Kassas three forty
on base, he's supplying five home runs, so he has
been a nice But you've got a Manuel Veld, Sadine
Rafaela will and Sabray. You guys like this hanging below
the nose lign of two hundred just need a bit

(47:53):
more there. In Masataki Yashida, do you have fifteen manning
average with one home run? You just need a bit
more there as well. For the Red Sox bullpen has
been neither great nor terrible. Justin Slayton is a nice
multi ending guy that probably should be seeing a little
bit of Actioneer probably don't want to part of Chase Anderson.
He's able to give you length, but that's not necessarily
the world's greatest length. And for the Cleveland Guardians, this
has been a pretty lights out bullpen. They're a tough

(48:13):
five team in terms of Bullpenny ray As you've had
the likes of Tim Harron Hunter Gaddis really have a
nice second act in the bullpen and Kate Smith. He's
done a nice job being able to hold down the fort. Really,
the bone guy that don't trust is Tyler Beatie. As
we all know what Emmanuel class A is able to do.
But for Carlos Cookie coastco three starts as far hasn't
been awful. He's given up five runs at twelve and
two thirds innings, but he's walked nine along the way.

(48:35):
His whip is way north of a one point five.
I think that there's massive regression coming as last year
with the New York Mets, he posted up a six
to eighty e Ra has yet to give up a
home run despite the fact that he's given up some
rockets off the bat. I do think that the Red
Sox are going to be able to get to him.
You're end find a way to be able to get
the job done. I did seth my total a nine
point seven. Guardians have done a nice job just being

(48:55):
able to find a way on basin, I do think
that the Red Sox bus out here against Carlos Cookie coastco.
So set my line out of minus one twenty three.
When we get the timelines out in Las Vegas, I'm
pretty sure I should be able to get a minus
one twenty two or better, which will put me on
the side of the Red Sox money line and with
segging my toil at nine point seven, I do like
the over on nine and a half and now wrap
things up for the Thursday edition of The Baseball Betting Show,

(49:15):
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(49:36):
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and thinkings to you. Matt Joseph's better known as mid
Major Matt for joining me in the last segment. Coming
at you guys every single days we're on the baseball season,
and that means up back to you once, good to morrow.
Thank you so much for ginning it.