5/2/24-Baseball Betting Show

Greg recaps Wednesday’s MLB results, talks to Justin Perri of Pitcher List about some of his early season takeaways, the recent high rate of unders, & Thursday’s games & Greg picks & analyzes EVERY Wednesday MLB Game!

Spreadsheet link: https://www.vsin.com/betting-resources/greg-petersons-daily-handicapped-mlb-lines/

Podcast Highlights

3:05-Recap of Wednesday’s MLB results

23:50-Interview with Justin Perri

48:30-Start of picks Rockies vs Marlins

52:06-Picks & analysis for Cubs vs Mets

55:16-Picks & analysis for Yankees vs Orioles

59:29-DK Network Pick Guardians vs Astros

1:03:11-Picks & analysis for Giants vs Red Sox 

1:07:03-Picks & analysis for Nationals vs Rangers

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Breaking down every game, every day in Major League Baseball.
This is the Baseball Betting Show. Here is your host,
Greg Peterson.

Speaker 2 (00:08):
The Warmer Buddy Loo. Welcome to Love Me Las Vegas
for the Baseball Betting Shoe with myself Greg Peterson, now
part of the Beson Family Podcasts. We've gotten excellent podcast
for you as joining me. In segment number two, we
are gonna be joined by the one and only Justin Perry.
He does great workover at Picture List, he does great
work over at chockqual You bets at Justin Perry show
list goes on and on. We're gonna be chatting with

(00:30):
him about what he's all noticed here from the first
month plus of the season. We're also gonna be diving
in as to what he's all observing for this Sursday
card a short one, but a sweet one. And then
in the final segment, we're gonna get you guys picks
in analysis on every game on the betting board for
this Baseball Thursday as we touch them all. If you
do have a question comment segment idea what have you
for this podcast? You do have one of tw ways

(00:51):
vo far those in first one is my Twitter slash
x timeline at you and unders forty one. Keep in
mind Lardsym maybe he does on matters, so as per usual,
please we send you into the timeline and the other
way is buying an Apple podcast review. If you rate
this podcast five stars, it is very much appreciating them.
From there, you are able to fire in whatever you'd
like to here on this podcast via that five star review.
Did not get in any Twitter slash x questions today,

(01:12):
but had a fun day of baseball on Wednesday. Let's
take a look back at it, trying to find the
trendscend try to get JAMLV seems a little bit better.

Speaker 3 (01:19):
Games for yesterday?

Speaker 4 (01:20):
Is Greg buzzing about? Here is the rowdy recap.

Speaker 2 (01:23):
Well, our DK now were great to pick, unfortunately to
not come through because both starters in this Mets versus
Cubs game were very good. But it was the block
at the point that at everyone very very much up
in arms and some very very happy as the Cubs
area able to get the job done by a kind
of one to zero. And what was unfortunate about this
right up? And it was a bad ride up. I

(01:43):
will very very much say that I thought that there
was going to be a regression with showtet Imanaga, there
was none whatsoever. Seven squirrel of settings you watched one
Guy Mark later Junior Yancy Almonte. From there, thank goodbye
for a squirrel of setting an actor in heris a
squirrel of setting of his home. But it was interesting
to look at that block at the late situation. And
in my defense, both of these teams want to combine

(02:05):
zero of twelve with men in scoring position. That's just
rough to say. The least as Jose butto he had
a little bit of a tough time with the guards command.
Fifty seven out of his ninety five pitches were strikes,
but Cubbs didn't really take a lot of advantage of
that as well. They scored one run over the course
of six innings from there, or a Lopez Jake Diekman
combined for a squirreless ending Ada Bonovino Sean Reid. Fully,

(02:25):
they both give you a scrorell as sting as well.
So that was one that was interesting to say the least,
and the Mets, he guess Pete Alonso has no idea
how to slide. They were unable to force extra innings.
The Colorado Rockies, well, they're staying down they lose by
count of four to one to the Miami Marlins. Says
for Colorado to cut to Hudson not necessarily the world's
worst start. He gives up two runs over the course

(02:45):
of five to two thirds innings. You know from there.
Nick Mears give up two runs in two thirds of
a nightings, Jake Byrd four outside of the bullpen, scoreless,
and Victor Vodnik he was able to give you an
out out of the bullpen as well. There's absolutely nothing
doing for the seam as Roderi Munos, who was giving
up like eight nine ennings at the minor league level
and did not look sharp. He gives up one run
over the course of six innings. Bryan Ooying along with

(03:06):
Tanner Scott combined for two squirrels settings and you're able
to get the first career save for the young guy
and Anthony Maldonado. So the Miami Marlins are able to
get the job done and the cow Rid Rocky's just
continue to be absolutely sad. They have now scored two
runs for fear and I believe all but three out
of their last fourteen games. It is rough. We saw
a lot of rough offense in baseball on Wednesday, if

(03:29):
he did nothing but take unders who cleaned up one
to zero. The Washington Nationals take down the Texas Rangers.
This is one of these just that's baseball games, says Washington.
They go one of two with men in scoring position,
they leave one man on base, The Rangers get shut
out while leaving eleven men on base, and Rheney one
run surrendered in seven innings. Ose La Clerk Jordan Lass.

(03:49):
They both supply a score setting in Dervor Williams gives
up five bits four walks in five innings and doesn't
give up as ale run from there. Derek Law along
with Kyle Finigan, they both give you a scored setting
a piece and under Harvey and doan floral think of
mind for two squirrels setting some interesting results out there,
and for the Years and the Diamondbacks. They got shut
out as well, eight to zero. The final. Yoshinobo Yamamoto

(04:12):
looked very good in this one, and ever since he
had that start in South Korea, he's actually posted up
a sub to era, so take that out of the
fold and he's been great. Six squirrel settings in this one.
JP fire Ice and Gus Farland From there they were
able to supply a combined three squirrel settings, and he
had a pair of home runs for the Dodgers as well.
As Will Smith gets jiggy with it, he gets home
run number four of the campaign, and home run number

(04:33):
three was had for Andy Pages. As Jordan Montgomery, for
some reason, they decided not to start him yesterday because
apparently the lay was too lengthy and he had already
warmed up. They should have just started him yesterday. I
have no idea if they were thinking. He gives up
six runs and three innings. He did not look like himself.
This was just incredibly stupid by the years and the Diamondbacks.
And then from there he had to go with three

(04:55):
and two thirds innings, giving up two runs from one
Blake Wallston in his EMA B debut, Loogan Allen, a
squirreless sending in Brandon Hughes one and a third ending squirrest.
But just no idea what the Arizona Diamondbacks were thinking
there though. That said, even if Jordan Montgomery gave up
a one run in nine nings, they still would have
lost because they had absolutely nothing doing here. The Cleveland
Guardians continued the mines of the Easton Astros. Astros lose

(05:17):
by a count of three to two and ten innings
and Justin Verlander actually turns the halfway deast and start.
He gives up a home run two runs to total
over of course the seven innings as going deep for
Cleveland Well Brandon was able to get his fourth home
run in the campaign, but Tristan McKenzie very good in
this one as well. He gives up the similar sat
line two runs one home run allowed in seven innings
as Kyle Tucker gets his eighth home run in the campaign.

(05:38):
And then from there for Uson Rafael monteto Ryan Presley,
they both land a squirrels setting. Sean Duban gives up
an under and run in the tenth inning as he
was able to get out of a nice basis lower
jam or else it could have been worse. But except
for the Guardians, they have the number one bullpenning area
in the big leagues and they showed it off here.
Tim Aaron, Scott Barlow Kate Smith they both give you
a pairabouts out of the bullpen scurelless and a manual
coass a was able to give you a score less

(06:00):
for a Guardian team that has actually been one of
your better over teams in all baseball this year. Sixteen overs,
twelve unders and two pushes. But the best over team
in all baseball right now, that'd be the Milwaukee Brewers.
And they put hammer to nail to the Tampa bay
Race seven to one. They're able to get the job done.
It is for the Tampa Bay Rays, they're down to
fourteen and eighteen and Zach Eflin not efflyin good, not

(06:21):
ef fly and awful. Three runs undered in five and
two thirds endings. Did allow a home run in this one,
William Thomas his fifth home run season. Then off of you,
that's a motor Ameres. He's able to get home run
number six of the campaign. Ramires was pretty effly and awful.
Four runs are undered in two innings, yes, f Lynn, awful,
So I can see what I did there. But that
said Garrett Clevenger and out at the bullpen, scoreless. And
for the Tampa Bay Rays they go oh of eight

(06:43):
with men in scoring position. As Colin Ray said, HiPEP
array to six. Corliss Endings, Bryan Hudson along if I
go Vieda, they were both able to lend a scirrel
sending in every year eBay has had some struggles. He
gets up a run in an ending, but Brewers they're
able to get a very nice easy win there and
out there in the central the Saint Lois Cardinal they
are still below five hundred. They lose to the Detroit
Tigers by account of four to one. Miles Michaeliss gives

(07:05):
up three runs over the course of six innings, including
home run going deep for Detroit Mett Veerling, his third
home run in the campaign. So another loss for our
good friend Michael Lis. Jojo Romero gives up a run
and an edging Matthew Liberator Squirrels setting, but the same loss.
Cardinals offense is just getting absolutely nothing generated as of
right now. He had a home run from Wilson Contreres,
home run number four of the season, and that was it.

(07:26):
As for the Same Lois Cardinals, this team has scored
now two runs are fewer in three out of their
last four games. There towards the bottom of the league
in terms of just runs per game in the National League.
As Kentamada, who has really struggled, gave up this home
run and nothing else over the course of six innings,
will vest a squirrels sending out laying for us out
the bullpen, squirreless and enjoy Wentz. He went out there

(07:47):
for a squirrel of sending the Blue Jays talk about
a team that's currently struggling on offense. There you go
six to one. They lose to the Kansaity Royals and
Royals by the way, twenty under ten overs in just
two pushes. As far this season as for Kansas City,
you had Michael Mancy get home run number two of
the campaign that comes off of Nate Pearson, but they
were able to take Chris passe at ookline and sinker

(08:09):
as well as he gives up three runs over the
course of six innings. Pearson he gives up his three
runs in an ending as Trevor Richards was able to
lend a squirrel setting. He also had a squirrel setting
out of mister Brandon Little. But for the Toronto Blue Jays,
you know else came up little. The lineup seth Lugo
gave up a solom run to Danny Jansen, his start
home run the season. That was it for Lugo. He

(08:30):
gives up two total hits over the course of seven innings,
Chris Tran and Nick Anderson, they both land a score
is setting. So another rough performance from that Toronto Blue
Jays offense, and I think we're going to see a
lot of rough performances from the Angels offense moving forward.
Without Mike Trout. They generate one run on Wednesday two
to one. Phillies find a way to get it done
as Zach Wheeler, he was Wheeland and DeLand, he gives

(08:50):
up a solo run over the course of five innings.
Says here Adrianza was able to get his first home
run season. And for the Phillies, I've been mentioning this
on the show quite a bit. The bullpen always struggles
in ape, but then it comes around, and it came
around on this day. Greg Graysoto odeon, kier King met
Strom along ose Albarrado, they all landed squirrel is setting
in for the ely Angels, Patrick Sannivial, he get's tense

(09:12):
strikeouts over the course of five innings. He did a
lot of two runs. But then from there, Amir Garrett,
Adam Simberg, Lewis, Garcia, Hunters, Strickland all end a squirrel setting.
But for the Angels they leave eleven minute on base
and they go oh ten with men in scoring position.
Not great to say the LEAs. Also not great for
the Pittsburgh Pirates four to zero. They get shut up
by the Oakland A's. Who Oh, by the way, the

(09:33):
Oakland A's have now went six to one in their
last seven games. And oh, by the way for the
Pittsburgh Pirates, my goodness, gracious, this has been brutal in
terms of the offense. To say the least. The Pittsburgh
Pirates have broken the four run plateau once since their
series against the Philadelphia Phillies. So from text day on
April fifteenth on, they have broken the four run plateau once.

(09:57):
Good grief. Best they leave ten men on this one.
Quinn Prester gives up three runs, two of which will
earned in six innings, going a pair of home runs.
Still hasn't put it together at the Big League Babble
as Abraham Toros third home run season, Tyler Nevan gets
home run number four of the season, but Ross Trippling
was incredible. Six squirrel of settings out of him. TJ. J. McFarland,
Awson Adams combined for a squirrel setting. Danny Amenez, Michael

(10:19):
Kelly combined for a squirrel setting, and then Mason Miller
He's able to shut the door with a squirrel setting
of his own end for the buckles. He did, ever,
all to Shaman Linda squirrel setting, but David Pennar his
era's up to eleven forty five, it actually dropped with
him giving up a run in an ending, so that
has not been great for the Pittsburgh Paris to say
the least. The Baltimore Oriols have really been one of
your top over teams in all of baseball this year,
sixteen over his twelve hundreds and two pushes, but completely

(10:41):
shut out by the New York Yankees suit a zero
the final. Luis Eel was able to deliver a Jemmy
cut down on the walk six and a third innings,
just one walk, five punch outs. From there, Cablin, Fergus
Indy and Hamilton combine for a squirrel setting and he
had play Holmes be able to get the final five
outs of the game. As it was all about as
Baldo corbrera fourth one run season that comes off with
Corbin Burns, who he didn't pitch bad two runs or

(11:03):
undered over the course of six innings Mike baumb and
two squirrel settings. You on Ramirez eight squirrel setting, but
for Baltimore just three. It's in this one, so absolutely
nothing doing for them. Something was doing for the San
Diego Patres though five to two they were able to
take down the Cincinnati Reds. Red's have been one of
your better over teams to begin the season as well.
Spencer Steer Steered went out from Joe Musgrove his fourth

(11:24):
home run season, but after that, Musgrove was really struggled
this year. Settled down nine punch outs, gives up that
home run two runs a total over the course of
six settings. From there, Yuki Matsui and Yeade No Santos
give bye for a squirrel setting, and he had Oney
Perolta Robert Swarez both Londay squirrel setting, and for the
Patres he had Jake Coronaworth go deep for home run
number five of the season. As this was not a
bad started off from Graham. Ashcraft gives up two runs,

(11:46):
but both were unearned runs as jamyor Kenda Lario had
an air out there in the field he should have
made a catch, he didn't. He gives up though those
two runs, so they were both unearned in six settings,
but Fernando Cruz from there gives up that home run
to Corona worth four runs surrendered in a third of
an enning entered with a sub two yara. It's now
at four to sixty three and Brent Suiter from there
gives you five outs out of the bullpen scoreless. So
the San Diego Padres are able to get on the

(12:08):
straight and narrow path. And for the Seattle Manners, they
have played now nine out of their last ten games
to under the Alanda Brays do take them down by
account of five to two. As Emberson Hancock, he gives
up five runs, but only one of which was earned
in three and two thirds innings. If you're looking at
earned runs and earned runs, only the Seattle Manners in
their last seventeen starts from their starting pitchers have given

(12:29):
up seventeen earned runs the undern runs. That certainly does
leave a little bit of an asters, but these guys
have been great, and one of those errors was his
own fielding errors, so take that with a little bit
of a great in as out. But from there, Tyson
Miller two scorels settings. S Taylors Tocado also both they
both led to Squirrel setting and Trent Thornton one and a
third ning scoreless, but just absolutely nothing doing for the
Seattle manners as they get tenn's but only two runs

(12:50):
a strand eleven minute on basis. For Atlanta, Chris Sale
got into some danger, gave up six sis in five innings,
but only the blows one run punches out nine from
there Dylan Lee. He gives up a run in one
of two thirds innings, but aj minter and out of
the bullpen and jolly mennez or Roussioglacis they closed it
over the score as eighth and ninth inning of their own.
The Chicago White Sox just continued to be the Chicago
White Sox actually covered five straight run lines going into Wednesday.

(13:13):
That street, he came to an end, shock, shock, surprise,
price ten to five. They lose the Minnesota Twins. As
for the Twins, Bailey over was not sharpened. This one
gives up four runs at six innings, including a home
run to Tommy fam who's actually been very good for
the White Sox. He's hitting a three seventy five and
he had pretty much one other guy in the lineup.
Inting above a two fifty six, so he's on his part,

(13:33):
and then you had Corey Lee get a third home
run season. They came off a barrock and roll sewer
who gave up that home run and his heading and work.
But Griffin Jacks, Steven Okert, they both supply a scirrell
of setting and Alex scuirrel off three run bomb off
of Chris Flexen his second home round season, as Flexen
is certainly flexing on his era, gives up just two
runs over the course of five innings. But want to
talk about a master class of a disaster. In terms

(13:55):
of the White Sox bullpen, Tom Nicklayone gives up two
runs at two thirds of a nighting. Tanner Banks gives
up two runs at one and a third innings, John
Rebia gives up two runs that he gets to us.
Steven Wilson gives up two runs, both on earned in
two thirds of an ning, and Tom okav a pairabouts
out of the bullpen. So not great for the Chicago
White Sox to say the least. And this has also
been a little bit less and terrific what we've been

(14:15):
noticing in terms of the San Francisco Giants as they
lose the Boston Red Sox by a kind of six
to two. As where the Giants, this was not what
they were hoping for in terms of the lineup, knowing
that they had pretty much a bullpen game on tap.
Dalton Jefferys was supposed to be the ball guy two
two thirds innings. He allows four runs, all of which weren't.
Eric Miller the opener, and gives you a score of
second Luke Jackson one a third ending score as you

(14:37):
had Mitch White come in for two nings. He allowed
one run and then one half of Rodgers squared and
Taylor Rodgers. He gives up a run in an inning,
but for San Francisco you had home run number one
of the season. For the newly acquired Tom Murphy is
first of the season. But that's about all that they
were able to get going on offenses. For Crutter Crawford,
he gives up that home run, two runs a turtle

(14:59):
over the course of nightings from there, Chris Martin, Greg Weisert,
they were both able to supply at a scroll of setting.
So very good results out there. And if you're looking
at what we're all noticing in Major League Baseball right now,
you've been getting great results. If you've been taking a
look at unders in the last seven days and major
League Baseball, the under is hitting at sixty point nine
percent fifty three unders of thirty four overs. You've had

(15:21):
six pushes along the way as well, and we've been
noticing that favorites have had a very rough time of it.
Favorites are forty nine and forty four on the money
line in the last seven days. You just take a
look at what we all got on Wednesday, and terms
of a Wednesday card, you had just one game go over.
You had a few pushes along the way, but good grief,
like nothing was going over on Wednesday, and overall for

(15:44):
the season, the underrate is about fifty three and a
half percent two hundred and thirty eight hundreds to two
hundred and seven overs. Meanwhile, favorites are rating out a
clip of about fifty seven point eight percent two sixty
seven and one ninety four on the money line. So
that's what we're seeing in baseball right now, and that's
what we all got on Wednesday. Coming up next, let's
take a look at the Thursday card and some observations
from our good friend Justin Perry of shock Quality Bets

(16:04):
along with Pitcherless at Unextar. You're on the Baseball Betting
Shows myself, Greg Peterson, now part of the Vson Family.

Speaker 1 (16:09):
Podcasts, breaking down every game, every day in Major League Baseball.
This is the Baseball Betting Show. Here is your host,
Greg Peterson.

Speaker 2 (16:22):
I'm a bragular love you Las Vegas for the Baseball
Betting Show with myself, Greg Peterson, now part of the
Beson Family podcast. It is always great to be drawn
by this man as Justin Perry. He does an incredible
job on so many fronts. You're able to catch his
own show called The Justin Berry Show. He does an
incredible job taking a look at a little bit of
everything from football, to baseball, to basketball, you name it,

(16:42):
he does it. He's doing an amazing job as a
contributor over at Pitcherless, where he's had no shorte of
things to write about with all these pictures going now
with injuries that has been rough, to say least for
those that love college basketball. He's the main man over
at shock Quality Bets and you will fam on Twitter
sidehiks at his first and last aime Perry the number
eight and that last name is felt pe r r

(17:03):
I and justin always pleasure my friend, Thank you, Greg.

Speaker 3 (17:06):
Always a honor to be on the show, talk a
little baseball, like you said, do a lot of stuff
across both of our favorite sports, college basketball included.

Speaker 4 (17:15):
It's been a great start to the year on the diamond.

Speaker 3 (17:17):
Really a lot of fun getting to dive back into
my fantasy baseball roots with pigil lists.

Speaker 4 (17:23):
I'm a big.

Speaker 3 (17:24):
Believer that you know, being good at one with betting
and fantasy they go hand in hand.

Speaker 4 (17:28):
It's all player evaluation, you know.

Speaker 2 (17:30):
Yep, it certainly is. And especially in baseball where it's
more of a money line sport as well. I think
that that's so important where you're not like sweating out
a whole bunch of free throws at the end of
the game like in college basketball. And we are now
about a month through the season, and what sort of
surprises have you gathered from the front of the baseball
season with throwing in the cavy out that obviously one

(17:51):
month of the season is on an end all be all,
but have there just been a few things that you've
observed that maybe I've caught you a little bit off guard,
that maybe it's not gonna completely, But I mean it's
something that maybe we need to adjust to you just.

Speaker 4 (18:03):
A little bit. How about the fifty five.

Speaker 3 (18:05):
Percent under rate in baseball in the last thirty days
fifty seven percent in the last seven I think that's
a good one. I do think we're seeing dead ball
level rates. Greg, it's a little worrisome. Hard press to
take overs right now, you are maybe seeing a little
bit of an over adjustment. I play almost exclusively on

(18:29):
first fives. It's just kind of what I have found
to make the process a little bit more reliable avoiding
those bullpens for me, really, I can find sometimes we're
seeing like the over adjustments to like three and a halfs,
and those can be pretty nice to sort of zig
when people are zagging and take overs.

Speaker 4 (18:50):
But you know, when you have the matchup data.

Speaker 3 (18:52):
In front of you, when you're looking at some good
pitchers and you really think that you have a good
shot for ball not leave the yard because you know
they're flying two percent less, it's hard to kind of
look away from these unders. They've been very good to me.
And then also it really feels like these away teams
on the road dogs really to me have been showing

(19:17):
up a lot sort of popping in terms of getting
those good prices.

Speaker 4 (19:21):
I don't know that the home.

Speaker 3 (19:24):
Field advantage is really one in baseball that you need
to be super concerned about.

Speaker 4 (19:30):
I think you just want to go in there and
look at.

Speaker 3 (19:32):
Who's pitching, who's hitting, how those hitters hit that type
of pitcher. Are they loading up a you know, lefties
against the proper side pitcher. Like that stuff matters. You
want to understand how they're playing. You probably also want
to have some wherewithal of the series and how these
teams sort of approach things. I mean, baseball is a
series sport, so when you have that second game is

(19:55):
usually where the losing team tries to come back into it.

Speaker 4 (19:57):
They don't want to get swept. You know.

Speaker 3 (19:59):
It's all practice for eventually being able to compete for
the World Series, for playoff series.

Speaker 4 (20:04):
So these road teams look really good.

Speaker 3 (20:07):
Underdogs have been crushing especially, you know, taking the plus
one and a half, so a lot of close games
or dogs winning. So yeah, I think the number right
now is the run line is like fifty eight and
thirty seven for dogs.

Speaker 4 (20:19):
That's the last week, so pretty heavy.

Speaker 3 (20:21):
You'd have to pay pretty serious juice on average not
to profit past that sixty one percent win rate. And
you know, there's been a lot of I think interesting stories.

Speaker 4 (20:31):
I've seen you tweet about the A's a lot.

Speaker 3 (20:33):
I mean that al Wes looks crazy compared to what
people were expecting. So there's a few strands to pull out,
a few things that we could talk about, but those
are the ones that are standing out.

Speaker 2 (20:43):
Yeah, that al Wes is going to be wild and crazy.
And just what have you made out of the Seattle
Manners pitching because this bunch has had a tough time
being able to bad to ball first few weeks of
the season. A lot of people I concern, but this
starting pitching has really been second to none this year.
They've got one the better balls in the league. Even
though they have not really been able to put back

(21:03):
the ball as far this year, They've been able to
really get the job done here in the last few weeks.
And I think that this has a lot of saying
power because you have to figure guys like Ulia Rodriguez
a company aren't going to be getting held homeless forever.

Speaker 4 (21:15):
Yeah, you know, it's early. All of that will sort
of circle back around.

Speaker 3 (21:20):
I think, if anything, you're usually going to find like
good prices on struggling players. These are still professional baseball players.
They can definitely turn it on. There's times to buy in,
even on the scariest players. There's times to sell even
on the hottest guys, and fade.

Speaker 4 (21:37):
The teams that you know look great.

Speaker 3 (21:39):
Example, the Yankees were absolutely crushing it and going into
this week and now they're you know, hoping at the
time of recording not to get swept by the Orioles.

Speaker 4 (21:48):
It's just, you know, sometimes when teams.

Speaker 3 (21:50):
Are riding high is the perfect time to go in
and swoop in and fade them. And sometimes when a
guy's riding low, you go and you play on him
until he rewards you with that multi homer game or something.
You know, like does all sort of come around zoom
out season to season, and guys usually get their numbers,
you know, within the standard deviation of results.

Speaker 2 (22:11):
Yeah, and in terms of the standard deviation of results,
I don't think that a lot of people saw the
results that we've seen from this Aos team. As Justin
Perry does great workover at Pitcherless along with the just
Perry shows joined to me right here on the Baseball
Betting Show, and that be the Houston Astros who entered
into Wednesday night ten and nineteen overall, granted having won
a few games against Conrad Author in Mexico City, but

(22:34):
what do you make of this scene right now? A
bunch that is going to be looking for a series
win against the Guardians on Thursday, but have just send
out their Spencer Aarraghetty.

Speaker 4 (22:43):
And I take a.

Speaker 2 (22:43):
Look at this, and I think that the fact that
Spencer Araghedty is getting a start on Thursday for the
Astros is exactly what's went wrong for the Houston Astro.

Speaker 3 (22:51):
And the rotation is decimated is about the easiest sentence
to utter for the Houston Astros.

Speaker 4 (22:58):
Valdez or Katie, who else is missing?

Speaker 3 (23:01):
It's up and down right Verlander's back, but you know
it's not like he's lights out.

Speaker 4 (23:06):
Yeah, they have some problems.

Speaker 3 (23:07):
They have to go to some arms that you know,
maybe aren't fully major league ready.

Speaker 4 (23:13):
I mean, Arraghetti does not look good.

Speaker 3 (23:16):
I don't really know how you look good with a
whip over too and a era close to eleven.

Speaker 4 (23:23):
Now give him some credit.

Speaker 3 (23:25):
His ex Wibbo puts him a little bit closer to
an x era about four and a half so.

Speaker 4 (23:31):
He should maybe come back around and.

Speaker 3 (23:33):
Above average whiff rate, above average barrel rate, so he's
not getting hit hard. The average exit velocity, you know,
is pretty good for a twenty four year old kid
that is, you know, just getting his third fourth start now,
So yeah, he.

Speaker 4 (23:50):
Hasn't really lasted long.

Speaker 3 (23:51):
Eleven innings over those three starts, fifteen strikeouts, so again,
when he's doing well, he's doing okay. But the breaking
ball seems to be very very identifiable. Guys are kind
of just crushing it. They're not really chasing pitches, right.
He creates swings and misses, but not off the plate,

(24:11):
so he's not really fooling too many guys, but like
the out pitches, which is why the k rate is
lower than the whift rate. So yeah, again, this Cleveland
team can be pretty good at the top. I mean,
Stephen Kwan is not exactly gonna blow the top off
the ball, but he's consistent. And then you follow it
up with solid hitters like him and Yez Ramirez and

(24:34):
Josh Naylor is having an absolutely.

Speaker 4 (24:36):
Hot tear to start the year. These guys do not
strike out.

Speaker 3 (24:40):
None of those three players strike out more than sixteen
percent of the time. It's gonna be tough again the Astros.
They have some good bats, al Tuvey doing well, Alvarez.

Speaker 4 (24:49):
And Tucker are always gonna be great.

Speaker 3 (24:51):
Bregman's really struggling, honestly, and they just brought up Joey
Loperfido because of how bad they've been dragged down by
the former MVP candidate in Jose Brad. I mean, it's
been quite the narrative for this Houston Astros team, who still,
I believe last I checked about a week ago, was
still sitting around forty percent to make the playoffs. So

(25:13):
you know, the market is still not out on the
Astros team expects them to get back into it when
that rotation gets healthy. Greg, I do think they start
taking down these wins, because.

Speaker 4 (25:24):
You know the difference is is that, yeah.

Speaker 3 (25:26):
You can rely on this line which to get you
three and a half runs four runs a game, but
if the rotation and the bullpen are surrendering five and
a half on average, it's just it's never gonna look pretty.

Speaker 4 (25:36):
And you're seeing the result of that exact problem.

Speaker 2 (25:39):
Yeah, but they certainly do need Ryan Presley, Alarm Josh
Eater to pick it up. Guys with a good drag
record of success that just simply have not been good
this year. But a man that is always good is
Justin Parry does amazing workover at jack Quay Bets along
with Fitcherlist tried to me right here on the Baseball
Betting Show, and do want to highlight this game as
this is pretty much a toilet bow game that we're
going to be finding on Thursday. The Marlins and the Rockies,

(26:01):
who entered into Wednesday both with seven wins of piece.
And something I've been talking about on this show is
it feels like, really those bottom three or four teams,
the Marlins, the Rockies being two of them, and the
Chicago White Sox, it feels like they're just so much
worse than the rest of the league and it's a
divide them like I've ever seen. And want to get
your thoughts here, as Edward Cabrera is going to be

(26:24):
going for Miami, Peter Lambert, who I've never been in on,
it's going to be going for the Colorade Rockies. And
as much as I don't want to be laying right
around about a minus one seventy on the Miami Marlins,
boy do I not want to have anything invested in
Peter Lambert in the start either.

Speaker 3 (26:40):
Yeah, we have to talk about this one is really
the way I look about.

Speaker 2 (26:45):
How big of fads both of these teams are, because
that's been very profitable.

Speaker 4 (26:49):
True, very true. I mean, look Edward Cabrera, it's kind
of been awesome a lot.

Speaker 3 (26:54):
I mean's had some really nice performances. The stuff looks great,
no one's touching it. Two percent change up is for
his pitch distributions, so a lot of off speed throws
that and the curveball.

Speaker 4 (27:09):
So the curveball's at eighty four. The change up, though,
is a ninety two mile an hour changeup.

Speaker 3 (27:13):
So Loo's well above the league average in terms of
how fast you usually see a changeup com atia. So
that thing probably looks fast as heck out of the hand.
And that makes sense because his fastball sits at ninety six.
So there's a lot of deception here. You know, throws
the fastball about twenty percent of the time and the

(27:34):
changeup that's, like I said, forty two curveball works in there.
It's a good mix. You know, the problem is that
when people are making contact, they're getting some barrels off
of him. Everything else looks incredible, So that's really all
that has to change here. The five point two eight
ERA for Edward Cabrera over the first three starts probably.

Speaker 4 (27:53):
Is a little bit luck.

Speaker 3 (27:55):
The average exit velocity that he has right now is
in the top five percent of the league. You want
to see that, the ground ball percent top fifteen percent
of the league, the hard hit rate top fifteen percent
of the league. His expected ERA three point four to one.
So I probably lean towards Miami here, take on this game,
trusting him a little bit more than you know whatever
is going to get thrown out here. For Peter Lambert,

(28:17):
who his numbers probably look pretty similar, but there's a
little bit less to be excited about under the hood.

Speaker 4 (28:23):
The hard hit rates are a lot more average.

Speaker 3 (28:25):
He's avoiding barrels for now, he's getting ground balls for now,
but no one's chasing pitches as fastball isn't anything to
write home about, and he uses it a lot. And
again this is alrighty, And we know the Marlins can't
hit left handed pitching this year, So as long as
there's a righty on the mound and there's a decent
pitcher on the mound against this Rockies team.

Speaker 4 (28:43):
Yeah, I'll take the Marlins on the first five.

Speaker 2 (28:46):
Yeah, And you know your bullpen's doom when Victor Vodnik
is one of your most trustworthy guys. That is not
a place where you want to be. And when it
comes to Thursday, we don't have a ton on the board.
We've already touched upon a pair of games that we
are going to be getting. Anything else as we're catching
your eye because we're right now TBD on that Orioles game.
A lot of people are expecting perhaps Kyle Bradish to

(29:06):
come off the injurless, but as of right now, we
don't know if that's gonna be the case or not.
But anything else that you're gonna be honing in on.

Speaker 3 (29:12):
Yeah, I mean, you know, Nate i Evaldi getting the
ball for the Rangers always something I want to take
a look at. I've honestly. I mean, Mitchell Parker for
the Nets probably deserves some love too, And this is
probably gonna be a decent spot to take the under
Parker three point two percent walk rate and he's just
not giving you extra passes, he's not putting guys on base.
The expected batting average is really good too. No, one's

(29:36):
hitting them hard. It's really impressive. And then on the
other side is NATEI Evaldi, who has obviously been very
consistent for a while. No one's hitting him hard either
so far this season in terms of like the average
power off the bat. Yeah, some hard liners, don't get
me wrong. There's still hard hit percent, of course, but
the expected slugging is low. You know, these lineups have

(29:58):
a couple stars on him each. I really like cj Abrams.
I was big on him this year, took him in
a lot of spots in fantasy. Jesse Winker, it's a
really nice one two punch Joey manessas if he turns
it up. Nick Senzel all of a sudden looks like
somebody you need to know about after years of doing nothing.

Speaker 4 (30:15):
And they're okay.

Speaker 3 (30:16):
But there's still the Nats and there's still a lot
of weakness at the bottom. And I kind of feel
the same way about the Texas Rangers right now. Jonaheim
not exactly having the best season, Tavares not really doing
that great.

Speaker 4 (30:28):
There's plenty to sort of be a little worried about.
Of course.

Speaker 3 (30:31):
Adolas Garcia, Corey Seger, and Seemian are great Josh Smith
is actually doing pretty well too, But there's still lineups
where I think a under can come in on a
good pitching matchup, So I will be looking to grab
an opening under here. As I mentioned, unders have been moneymakers.
A short Thursday for sure, but should be a good one.
Maybe I'll go head out to City Field and catch

(30:53):
the Mets Cubs finale.

Speaker 2 (30:56):
Absolutely, and hopefully Adrian als are gonna can stop at you.
Like Dougieouser. It has been not great from us for
the season though. Ben Brown, interesting guy for the Chicago Cubs,
has been that I.

Speaker 4 (31:07):
Might be an over if it's a nice day like
it has been here in New York. Craig that that
could be an over at City absolutely.

Speaker 2 (31:14):
And with Brooks Raley on the injured list, that certainly
does hurt. That Mets bullpen one where they've got Adrian
Elser and it's nice, rock solid eight thirty seventy are
a going out there. But a man that is always
posting up great numbers, a man that under the hood
you know exactly what you're going to get out of him,
that w justin you do an amazing job over at
pitcherless shot quality bets the Justin Berry showing so much more,

(31:35):
so we'll love to get people to him. Know it's
all on tap for you and how people are able
to fall on on social media and other platforms.

Speaker 4 (31:41):
Yeah for sure.

Speaker 3 (31:42):
So I'm contributing on a few different articles and teams
this year over at Pictureless, part of the Daily News team.
We just recap all the big events in baseball, so
a great place to start your day on pitture list
dot com.

Speaker 4 (31:53):
And then I'm also doing a lot of Dynasty Baseball.
We're tracking some prospects, so make sure you check that out.
Some of the deepest analysis you'll see in.

Speaker 3 (32:01):
Terms of you know, baseball media, like widespread baseball media sites.

Speaker 4 (32:05):
Really proud to be a part of that team.

Speaker 3 (32:07):
And then of course plugging suggin some picks, always posting
on Twitter, you know, win where we can. Getting ready
for another great college basketball season already have a lot
of great stuff going on in the NBA.

Speaker 4 (32:17):
Still running our live betting show bet Cast.

Speaker 3 (32:20):
It's going to be on Mondays and Thursdays through the
entire summer, going to do NBA and WNBA. So if
you're interested in live betting using our one of a
kind live regression model over at Shot Quality Bets. Definitely
recommend give me a follow on Twitter and checking out
one of those shows on a Monday or Thursday.

Speaker 2 (32:38):
And Justin does such great work on those shows and
live betting the NBA is certainly the way that you
want to go about it is you're able to get
so much value in game because of the volatility that
you have in the NBA, and you want to embrace it,
just like we always embrace getting Justin on the show.
Big thanks to Justin Perry for joining me radio on
the Baseball Betting Show now part of the Vison Family
Podcast and coming next It is at time of the

(32:59):
pie to give you picks an analysis on every game
on the betting board for this Baseball Thursday as we.

Speaker 1 (33:05):
Touch them all, breaking down every game every day in
Major League Baseball. This is the Baseball Betting Show. Here
is your host, Greg Peterson.

Speaker 2 (33:17):
Comberback your love you Las Vegas for the Baseball Betting
Chew with myself Greg Peterson now part of the Vson
Family Podcast. Always great to be joined by Justin Perry.
You does such great workover at Chock Quality Beuts taking
a look at this great game of baseball that we
all know and love and every single time he joins me,
Len such good insights and we've got ourselves a fun
day out of us for Thursday. So big thanks sim

(33:38):
for joining me and Lias segment. Now it is that
time the podcast to give you picks an analysis on
every game on the betting board for this Baseball Thursday,
as we touch them all.

Speaker 3 (33:47):
If a game is listed on the betting board, Greg
has a side and a total on it, so it
is time to touch them all.

Speaker 2 (33:53):
Do you know that, as per usual, any changes that
are made to these plays will be listened up on
my Twitter slash x feed at you and unders forty
one being in last hexscation or this is where we
go with the two National League games first, then the
two American League games and those two inter league games.
Those are gonna be at the bottom. That'll keep things
all nice, neak, clean and easy. So without further ado,
let's have an on nine to fifty one, nine fifty

(34:13):
two on the card. It is the colrad Rocky's on
the road facing off against the Miami Marlins. Edward Cabreras
on the bump for the fishing. You got Peter Lambert
on the bump for Colorado, and Colorado does find themselves
as an underdog between plus one forty and plus one
and fifty mean, while three minus one fifty eight to
minus one seventy's the number on Miami. Seven a half
is a total over under anywhere three minus one of

(34:35):
five to minus one fifteen seeing one straight eight that
under his minus one twenty and the over is even.
This has gone way down, as the opener was eight
and a half, and I'm gonna be one to go
with the over on seven a half. I did sell
my total at an eight point two. Peter Lambert is
just a guy that I've absolutely no faith and whatsoever.
He got a four to sixty seventy are thus far
this season, but in the role of a story. He's
made one start, gave up six runs at three innings

(34:57):
against the Seattle Manners. He's not gonna lend a lot
of length. He's backed up by one of the league's
worst bullpens out there in all baseball, and fully recognized
that the corad Rocky's had a rough time. I'd like
to say the least, but I do think that they
can generate a little bit of something off of this
Miami Marlins bullpen as well as for the Miami Marlins,
it has been a little bit less than savory for
them in terms of their bullpen pitching thus far this season,

(35:18):
as they do rank in the bottom ten Indie Big
Leagues with regards to their bullpenny orra. You just have
not had guys really on either side be good. Like
Victor Vadnick is right now the lone guy that you
can trust in for the Colrad Rockies. For the Miami Marlins,
Brian Hoyn was relatively solid, but now he's going straight
down the toilet bowl as well, like George Shoorano, Andrew Nrdi.

(35:39):
All these guys that were good for the Miami Marlands
a season ago now officially sucks. So that's not terrific
to say the least. And for the Miami Marlins, you
just have the more competent lineup at this point, which
not great is to say the least if you're a
fan of the Corad Rockies because it's Miami Marlins seem
has not been good to say LEAs. You've got Luise
Rice who's been moved line. He's sitting for about a
two ninety five. But Josh Bell, Tim Anderson, Nick Flash,

(36:02):
Gordon Nick Fortes. There are all the guys hitting a
two twenty five or lower and so don't have a
lot of pop in the line up. Brian day, La Cruz,
Jez Shislom and combined nine home runs, but with Jake
Berger they haven't been able to get a ton there.
But as we know the Colrader Rockies, they always have
those smonster to Hooman roads put saying they have a
few guys that will be able to get on base.
Elias Dias Brenton Doyle are both in above a two ninety.

(36:23):
Azekieltovar staybled about a two seventy. But Michael Taglia is
right now tied with Ryan McMahon for mostlim runs on
the team with four. And I'm pretty sure that Taglia
either got sent to the injured list or he might
be like in the miners or something, as we haven't
seen him in like two weeks. So that's very wild.
And for the Colrad Rockies in their road games as
far as the season, they're providing a two ninety nine

(36:45):
on base with nine home runs in fourteen games. That's
a little bit less and tremendous. What has been relatively
solidose Edward Cabrera. Edward Cabrera is able to give you
some nice strikeout stuff twenty one punchouts in fifteen and
a third innings, but last year he did have six
walks per nine innings. This year he's been able to
clean that up a little bit, but he's still giving
up right around about four walks per nine endings. So
there is a little bit of negativity doing for the

(37:07):
Colerad Rockies, who, despite the fact that they're eating about
a two forty is collective, their expected batting average on
Baseball SAVANNA is actually twenty points lower than it is
right now. Meanwhile, for the Miami Marlins, they're hitting about
twenty five points lower than they're expected, so they should
see some positivity. The Rockies should see some negativity. So
that's something to keep in mind. And though the era

(37:27):
of Caberra is a five twenty eight, fielding dependent is
a two forty five, So I do think that he's
gonna be able to lend a good start, but I
do think that he knocks himself out early. I think
that both of these starters give up quite a bit,
but certainly I think that's going to be a rough
one for Peter Lambert. If you're looking to lay a
run half with the Miami Marlins, you're able to get
up out A plus one twenty five was one think
plus one fifteen or higher. So gonna be looking at
that Marlins run line and this total over nine fifty

(37:49):
three nine fifty four on the betting board. These should
got Cubs at the red face off against the New
York Mets. Adrian Don't Cam Dougie Owsers on the bump
for the Mets, in Ben Brown goes for the Cubs.
The Cubs are a very very slight underdog. You're gonna
be find them any between even money and minus one
o five between minus one six to a minus one
fifteen is your number on the New York Mets, and

(38:10):
the total on this game it is eight the overs
minus one twenty the unders, even seeing a few eight
and a halfs unders minus one twenty the overs even,
I would rather take an eight over rather than an
eight and a half under or a dkn ol gright
to pick went down in a fighter you heap with
the Mets not being able with men and scoring position.
But I do think that for the Mets, you're gonna
be able to get a little bit of a better
outcome for them, as I did set them out of

(38:31):
minus one of six. If we can get this down
by like two or so pennies that I'm thinking by
the end of the day we should be able to
do so, could be one to lay up to a
minus one of five with the New York Mets. As
you've got Peter Lonzo's being able to sply eight home
runs down. Did have to make a little bit of
an adjustment as Francisco Lindor he got lifted from the
game yesterday. It seems like he's the one with the
flu I. Doubt that he goes in this game. Yere

(38:52):
so be mindful of that. But you got guys like
Tyrone Taylor, Harrison Bader, Jeff McNeil hitting between about a
two fifty five to two seventy five and Sarling Marte
has certainly been able to move the line as well.
And for the Chicago Cubs, they have to deal with
the injuries at Cody Bellinger along si a Suzuki that's
been negatively affecting them. You've got Nico Horner's done a
nice job being a lion, hitting about a three fifty

(39:13):
terms of zombise percentage. And for the Cubs they've been
able to provide thirty one runs in thirty one games
with Michael Bush being your main man. He had that
streak of five home runs of five games. Ever since
then he's went a little bit cold, but stillson a
solid job reaching base. But you do have the likes
of Ian App Christopher Morell throwing there the entirety of
the catcher spot for the team hitting a two to
twenty year lower. And for Ben Brown, if you look

(39:33):
at what he's done thus far, he's got a four
to thirty year A, but the fielding independent is far
lower than that. He's getting about nine straightcoups b nine innings,
has not really alloted a lot of walks, with about
two and a half walks. Bernin and Ennings is fielding
independent full point lower. I do like that. And for
Adrian Ouser eight thirty seven e RA good news is
the fielding independent as far lower as he's given up
just one on run in twenty three and two thirds innings.

(39:54):
But what killed him a few years ago when he
was with the Brewers was the walks, and those have
really crept up as he He's always a picture contact guy.
He'll never really give you north of seven strike cuts
Berni and Ennings. But when you can pound that with
giving up nearly six walks Bernie and Ennings like he's
swinging right now, it's made him a full on fade.
So that's been a bit of an issue. But with
the Cubs being as banged up as they are, I

(40:15):
do think that they're going to be able to generate something,
but I do think that it's going to be a
little bit more muted. I do think that the Mets
are going to be able to find their footing a
little bit more against the Cubs. And the Cubs they
just have a little bit of a disadvantage in the bullpen.
The Mets, even with Brooks Raley out the fold, they're
still a top ten team with the guards of their
bullpenny array. We've got Edwin Diaz rested, all ready to go,
and the Monovino has been relatively solid in this bullpen

(40:35):
of being able to get the ball to him. Drew
Smith isn't too bad. And for the Chicago Cubs, Mark
Leder Junior did have to come into the game yesterday.
Long Hector and Aris Colton Brewer has been a little
bit up and down for them. You've had some relatively
solid innings out of Edberg. Also laying Keegan Thompson could
be a bit of a long guy, and you would
expect him to come in this game. Ben Brown not
fully stretched out. So circumstance, we're here at an eight.
I'm gonna be looking at you over and with the

(40:56):
Mets willing to lay up to eight minus one to
five on that money line, five nine to fifty six
on the baking board. The New York Yankees at the
red face off against the Baltimore Orioles says, sold to
be determined who's gonna be on the bump for Baltimore. Meanwhile,
Carlos so Nodan is on the bump for the Yankees.
Right now. What I'm hearing through the Great Vine is
that Kyle Bradish is gonna be getting this start. And
if it is Kyle Bradish versus Carlos rode On, I

(41:18):
would be setting the Orioles as a minus one twelve favorite,
so would be one lay up to a minus one
eleven there plus one thirteen or higher would be looking
at the Yankees, and Semi I told to wear an
Ain and after us, i'd be looking at the over
a nine or higher to the under the Orioles to
have quite a few options. I know that Grayson Rodriguez
unfortunately is injury. But that said, for Kyle Bradish, he
was able to do a few rehab appearances. He saw

(41:39):
John Means to you so as well, and I don't
think you're gonna get means here. I think that comes
down to Albert Suarez or it comes down to Kyle Bradish,
and I'd be surprised if it's not mister Bradish. But
in his minor league appearances he made three of them.
In total, he was getting eleven star Cossper nine and nnings.
The control was relatively good, wasn't getting it too hard.
I don't think they necessarily go is a full like

(42:00):
five plus innings or anything like that, but I think
that'll be able to return in relatively good form. And
because he made three reab starts and not just one
or two, he should be in relatively good form. Meanwhile,
for Carlos Hoddan, even though the numbers look much better
just on the surface for him than they did eight
season go, it sounds like he's really gotten back to
being the Carlos Hoddan that we all know and love.
The swing and miss stuff just is not there like

(42:22):
it has been in past years. He's gotten the earra
of a two forty eight, but field independent is still
right around about a three ninety nine. He's been surrendering
four walks bernine ennings, only getting about eight and after
it gots for nine ings. To his credit, he's been
able to keep the ball in the yard. But now
you have to go up against the Baltimore Orioles team
that among their top eight players in terms of total
at bats as far this season, every one of them

(42:42):
has logged out at least four home runs. Like it's
just absolutely incredible what we're seeing. And all but two
of these guys have a batting average of at least
a two eighty as well. So, I mean, you want
to talk about just a fearsome lineup that is able
to find a way to move the line, that is
able to just give you some good pop. In general,
these guys are all doing so badly. Rushman being your
main guy in terms of being able to get on
base three eleven batting average. Meanwhile, the main guy turns

(43:05):
of the power numbers Gunner Anderson has been able toply
ten over runs. Satacamulins Colton Calcler both of these guys
have went deep six times as well. So I mean
it's a Baltimore team that they really bring at Carlos
or down the kitchen sink. And with the way that
the ools are set up, they're able to patune for
righties and lefties as well. And for the Yankees, this
is a revamped offense from a season goo Aaron Judge

(43:25):
is starting to get a little bit more online. He's
up to six home runs three thirty one on base,
but so letting right around the middie's line of two hundred.
Labor Torres, John Carlos same. They have had a tough
time reaching base, but at the very least for saying
he's been able to supply six home runs. Meanwhile, Laborer
Torres still on a big old doughnut. That's not a
sty too. Tremendous fan Anthony Brizzio Anthony Volpe to a
nice shot being able to find a way to be
able to move the line, but holding off for the

(43:47):
New York Yankees could really use Judge and Labor Torres
to be able to give you a little bit more. Meanwhile,
for the Oriols, the bullpen was a little bit rough
to begin the season there, you know, with Craig Kimbrell
being a little bit in and out of the fold,
and he has just really been in general guy that
has been not so trustworthy throughout the last few seasons.
But that's it. Even with him out the fold, he

(44:07):
saw plenty of draft. They get Ceonoprahrez back the full,
Danny Koloom, you ner Cano. These are guys that have
been pretty blocked down. And this is a Yankees bunch.
I just ranking the top eight in the big leagues
in terms of their bullpenny area as well. Victor Gonzalez
has come in and has been able to do a
nice job holding down the fort with a sub three era.
I and Hamilton ron Manaaccio, these guys were very solid
a season ago. Luke Weaver has become a relatively okay

(44:28):
long guy as well. Though still do I make question
marks there, But I do think that if you do
get Carlos Hurdon versus Kyle Bradish, Bradish is gonna be
able to come back look relatively solid after a season.

Speaker 3 (44:38):
Goo.

Speaker 2 (44:38):
He was giving you right in that neighbor about nine
right cuts for nine inings sometimes had a little bit
of an issue with the deep ball. But although I
do think that he's gonna be able to return in
relatively good foreman help the Orioles be able to get
the job done. So if you do get Bradish versus
Carlos hurdon Andy that for less, I'd be looking at
the over a nine or higher to the under, and
then would be willing to lay up to a minus
one eleven with Baltimore plus one thirteen or ier. That'd

(44:59):
be my bypoint on the Yankees. And if you do
get someone like a Cole Irvin or something like that,
I would have about a twenty five to thirty cent difference.
And if it is Coreve and I would go to
a nine or less to the over, nine and a
half or higher to the Underreyes we go to at
nine fifty seven, nine to fifty eight. R d Heka
network right to pick the Cleveland Guardians. They throw the
facing off against the Houston as Spencer Arraghetty is on

(45:20):
the bump for the Astros, that Logan Allen is on
the bump for Cleveland, and Cleveland does find themselves as
an underdog of between plus one ten to plus one eighteen. Meanwhile,
with the Asters are between minus one twenty five to
minus one thirty favorite Sign and a half is a
total over and under are both of minus one ten.
For Logan Allen, it's been a relatively rough go of
it from thus far the season, but I'm gonna be
willing to back them, and my right to pick is

(45:41):
on the Cleveland Guardians on the money line, I felt
like they should have been more round, about a minus
one ten to a minus one twelve favorite. For Logan Allen,
he does have an ERA that's hovering right around about
a five forty five and sealed the Independent only about
three tens of a point lower. But he's still doing
a whole like a lot better than Spencer Arraghedty. And
what I think is interesting about Logan Allen is that
he has performed far better when he has been on

(46:01):
the road rather than at home. This farthest season, he's
got his seven to twenty ERA at home. On the road,
it's more very respectable about three eighty three, and and
that's been him throughout his career. If you look at
him just throughout his career with the Cleveland Guardians three
sixty eight ROADRA relatively solid compared to a four to
sixty two home ras on the road, He's giving up
only about one home run per ninn Nnings. Meanwhile, Parraghetti

(46:22):
has a ten to ninety three ERA just absolutely ghastly. Now,
I will say he's pitched better than that if you
look at the Advans Summers. His fielding independent more around
about a three eighty five or so. But what was
really killing him as the walks five point nine walks
pern in Nning said, he's backed up by He's an
Astros bullpen that has been all sorts of awful. This
season has been all sorts of tax as they did

(46:43):
have to use up Josh Hader for multiple innings two
nights ago. You've had Ryan Presley be incredibly ineffective for
this team. Seth Martinez, a long tailor Scott have honestly
been your Knights fines in the bullpen thus far this
season for an Answers team that entered into last night
twenty fourth in the league terms of bullpen area. Meanwhile,
the Cleveland Guardians, they entered into last night number one
in the big leagues in terms of bullpenning and they're

(47:04):
doing this without James Karenchrek. By the way, Manuel class
A has been so locked down for the scene, but
he can throw out their darn near anyone on the roster.
And other than perhaps Tyler Meady, all these guys have
a sub three era in this bullpen. It's been absolutely
remarkable what we've been seeing out these guys, everyone from
Tim Herron, Kate Smith, Nick Sandlin, they've all been able
to lock it down. And for the Cleveland Guardians entering

(47:25):
the last night, they are number four in the Big
Wigs in terms of runs per game. And he got
held down a little bit yesterday by Justin Verlander. But
take a look at Stephen Kwan moving the line four
hundred on base, three sixty batting average, Josh Naylor, Andre Semenez,
Jose Ramirez, Cazer guys that I will give you a
little bit of something as well, with the Ramirez and
Naylor combining for twelve home runs and Menez has given

(47:45):
you about a three fifty five on Mace could use
a little bit more out of some of these, shall
we say, lesser guys like Tyler Freeman and Brian Roschio
who are hitting below a two twenty. But like what
I've seen there and for the Asters, they're about league
average in terms of their runs per game. But the
lineup really isn't the issue in my opinion. You've got
to exil two a Kyle Tucker. You're on overs all
between seven and eight home runs. In the case of

(48:06):
all two Ve along Tucker both have been able to
give you north of four on our base as well, though,
and it's spent a miserable year for Alex Bragman one
home run and at two seventy five on base. But
currently having oj bra on the fold for the team,
that's a very very good thing for this team, as
he's at like their spring training facility or something like that.
But that said, I do take a look at this
circumstance and I just cannot have any faith whatsoever in

(48:29):
Arraghetty alone with his bullpen Logan Allen. Though I do
think that he might be giving up his runs. He's
spent far better on the road, and I do think
that he does just enough for the Cleveland Guardians to
be able to get the job done here. And I
do think that Arraghetty is gonna be a little bit
better in this start. The Cleveland Guardians are better at
the point. This is still not some sort of a
power hitting team or anything like. That's why I did
something I told her at eight point eight. Here at
the nine and a half, I do like the under,

(48:50):
but write a pick that is going to be on
the Guardians on the money line. I feel like they
should be the favorite. Nine fifty nine, nine sixty on
the bank board. The San Francisco Giants sit the road.
They're gonna be facing off against the Boston Red Sox.
Shwin Kowski goes for the Socks and Kyle Arrison is
on the bump for San Francisco. San Francisco between even
money to minus one oh five, meanwhile between minus one
ten to minus one eighteen is at number on Boston

(49:10):
nine and a half. It's a total the unders between
minus one ten to one minus one twenty eight overs
that he were between even and minus one ten and
for the Red Sox, I was willing to go up
to a minus one thirty two with them. For Kyle Arrison,
he's been solid at not giving up a lot of walks.
He's only given up about one point four walks FORER
nine innings, but he has given up the deep bat
a little bit about one point four runs per nine
innings with him as well. Strikeoun numbers are solid, about

(49:31):
eight and a half punch outs per nine nunnings, and
he's been very much a guy that you know what
to expect out of. He has given up approximately three
runs that three out of his last four starts, coming
off of a night shutout performance against the Pittsburgh Priors.
But all in all, he's hasn't been great, and he
hasn't been terrible, but what it has been terrible has
been the bullpend backing about the San Francisco Giants entered
into the series with the Boston Red Sox said last

(49:53):
in the big leagues in terms of Bullpenny Ray Rodgers
squared and Taylor and Tyler Rodgers have not necessarily been
too bad, but you need to be getting a little
bit more some of these shall we say middle relievers.
They bringing Mitch White, who just has been passed around
like a basket of bread. Six here at the bag
League Lebo. Ryan Walker is posting up as up three
year a so he's been relatively solid. You've got Camillia
Devall who's able to hold down the ford as well.

(50:13):
But Eric Miller the opener from yesterday. He's been posting
up north of a five ERA and you've got way
too many guys like that. And for the Boston Red Sox,
Justin Slayton has actually been very good in this bullpenny.
He's supplying as up to Era Gunnley Jansen, Chris Martin
in the eighth and ninth inning, they were pretty rocks
solid by season. You've had a little bit of a
off COVID for Martin thus far this season, but still
is able to do a formidable job. This team is

(50:34):
eighth in the league in terms of Bullpenny Ray. They've
been able to do a nice job of mixing and
matching with Brandon Burton Nabino being a relatively nice guy
from in For the Boston Red Sox, what you'd love
to see is Tyler O'Neill along with Rafael Devers really
starting to put it together as well. Both of these
guys miss a little bit of time due to injury
and in the case of Tyler O'Neill in a concussion,
But for O'Neill nine home runs in seventy nine at

(50:55):
Pats as far as the season north of four on
Rebas Rafael Devers is back above a four hundred on
base percent. Since he returned from injury, he has been
very rock solid. What you need a little bit more
of is these younger guys being able to step up.
Bobby Dollbacks, Adne, Rafaela, Pablo Reyes. He's the guys being
below the mids ligne two hundred and it does hurt
that they've got trips. Colsi is currently out of the full,

(51:16):
but on all these guys have been able to do
a nice job of being able to just provide a
little bit more offensive general. Meanwhile, for the San Francisco Giants,
this team has really been all over the place in
terms of their lineup. Lamaway Junior has been incredible of
being able to reach base at four to forty on base.
You've got Matt Chapman or a Silari came in during
the offseason providing some power combined nine zero runs, but
both hurting below at two twenty five and in the

(51:36):
case of Chapman just to two sixty six on base.
Jung O Lee, I feel like it is hit better
than the two sixty average. Would indicate Confordo is sitting
in that fold as well, but for Michael Conforto five
of them runs as far this season, but it feels
like a Giants lineup that is just a little bit meh.
I wish I could put it any other way, And
with the way that the bullpen has performed, I do
think that Joshua Kowski is going to be able to
find a way to be able to get the job

(51:56):
done here for the Boss of Red Sox. For Winkowski
wrote from being a long reliever into being a starter
once again, as he has had fluctuating roles throughout his
sign with Abouts of Red Sox, but he's been able
to do a nice job and being able to up
his strikeouts so over the last two seasons has been
able to suply about nine strikecouts Bernie and he says
command can sometimes be a little bit over the place
since the beginning of the twenty twenty three season about

(52:18):
three and a half walks Bernie and Ennings, but for
his career he's been a little bit lucky with regards
of fielding independent in comparison to the era. Since the
beginning of the twenty twenty three campaign, three eighty three
field in independent to ninety ninety Ara, but does a
good job keeping them all in the r n if
you think that he does just enough against the Giants
lineup that just in general feels a little bit disjoining
it right now to be able to get this one

(52:38):
to the window. It's on my till at nine point one.
So here at the nine and a half, I like
the under and willing to lay up to a mince
one three two on the red Sox and Wenna have
to He's up with nine sixty one, nine sixty two
on the card that you Washington Nationals throw their facing
off against e Walker Texas Rangers. Nathan Valdi is going
for the Rangers, and Mitchell Parker is on the buff
for Washington, and Washington is an underdog between plus one
seventy and plus one eighty three. Meanwhile, in between minus

(53:00):
two dollars and minus two ten is at number on Texas,
and you've got a total between eight and a and
a half on the eight and a half underspinul twenty
d overs even on the eight over his minus one
fifteen the under is minus one of five, and I'm
gonna be willing to ride the over. I it's on
my total and an eight point six per Nathan Novaldi.
He's always been a relatively good command pitcher. Really, other
than that month in which he was dealing with an
injury last season, has always been a guy that only

(53:22):
gives you about two or so walks per nine and
NIX and when it comes to Evaldi, he's got a
three ERA thus far to a three to ninety one
field independent and just uncharacteristically, the walks have been up
to about four point three per nine innings, but he's
done a nice job not giving up a lot of
heart contact. He's been getting about nine strikeouts for nine innings.
Other than the walks, things have been pretty consistent for him. Meanwhile,
Mitchell Parker is a kid that I believe did grow

(53:44):
up in the great City of Texas. He's been tremendous
in his three starts. He's got a one seventy nine
field independent buck sixty ninety RA eight strikeouts per nine.
He doesn't necessarily blow you away, but that's just been
good in terms of the command. He has given up
just two walks in his sixteen n says far I
do think that there's gonna be a little bit of regression,
and if they're the Rangers tranded eleven men on base

(54:05):
in their shutout yesterday. I do think that there's gonna
be a little bit of positivity for them at the play.
Corey Seeker has just been miserable as of right now.
Two home runs that it's hitting about it two twenty
five that is not tremendous, to say the least. Leody
taveris Wyatt Langford, Evan Carter. These are all guys hitting
below a two thirty five, along Chair Walsh as well,
So you're gonna need a little bit more there, and
they just haven't supplied the power that they did a

(54:27):
season ago. Last year among American League teams, had the
most home runs per game at home of any team,
and they still have twenty one home runs in seventeen
games as far as the season. But you just expect
a little bit more there. Meanwhile, for the Washington Nationals,
you've got CJ. Abrams, who has been incredible, giving you
about a three sixty on base seven home runs as
far as the season. Nobody else has north of three
home runs, and the signings of Joey Gallo and Eddie

(54:48):
Rossario of age like Milk, both of these guys hitting
below a buck twenty five Joey gallow just landed on
the injured list with his one single and north of
forty strikeouts. That's not great. Leanne Thomas has been a
little bit banged up. He Joey Vnessas are both hitting
a two to twenty five or lower. Riley Adams says
an Assa, give you a ton And for the Washington
Nationals bullpen has actually been relative. We sawid this is

(55:08):
quite the fact that a guy that I like in
Jordan Weems has been a little bit touching go this season,
but did have to use up flakes of Derek Law,
Dylan Floro, quite a few guys yesterday. Well, the Texas Rangers,
we're able to save quite a bit of their bullpen.
They surprisingly were able to get seven solid arnings out
of Anderwhini yesterday. So the offseason acquisitions Kirby as David Robertson,
they're going to be to go in this one. For

(55:29):
the Rangers, they've been about league average in terms of
their bullpenning already. Washington Nationals have been a little bit
above that. But I do think that for Mitchell Parker,
we're going to start to see a little bit of
regression with them. I do think that the Texas Rangers
lineup is able to step up here. So it is
a circumstance where I'm going to be willing to ride
with the Rangers on the run line right now, I'm
seeing a lot of places where you lay a run aft,
you're getting about a plus one or five. I was

(55:49):
one to go up to a minus one fourteen, So
looking at that run line of the Rangers, I'm looking
at the over and that'll wrap things up for the
Thursday edition of The Baseball Betting Show, now part of
the VS and Family podcast. If you do like fearing
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(56:11):
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I'll be coming at you guys every single day, drown
the baseball seats and selling back and she wants to

(56:32):
get on.

Speaker 4 (56:32):
Thank you.