The Bayesian Conspiracy

Hello and happy holiday season to you all! Eneasz is back and we’re here to say hi and give a shoutout to Skyler’s awesome annual LessWrong survey and Lighthaven’s fundraising event. See the links below for more details.

LINKS

• The LessWrong survey will remain open from now until at least January 7th, 2026.
• Lighthaven is once again seeking support. If you’re inclined to help, check out all of the ...

Join me as I sit down with Alex and David, both previous guests on the show and both cofounders of the Guild of the Rose. Together, we go over the core – the heart – of what we consider to be the Rationalist tradition. The 12 Virtues are an awesome distillation of what the rest of the sequences build on.

Be sure to check out the Guild of the Rose. If our constantly pitching it to you hasn’t been enough to persuade...

Matt Freeman has been cohosting several media analysis podcasts for over a decade. He and his cohost Scott have been doing weekly episodes of the Doofcast every Friday and they cover movies, books, and TV shows. Matt and Scott’s analysis podcasts have made me love stories even more and have equipped me with tools to enhance my ability to think more deeply about the stories I consume and enjoy them even more.

My hope is that t...

Booker is a long-time attendee and one of the coordinators of the Denver area Less Wrong community. Community engagement isn’t just a background task for him – he’s taken real steps to get involved with and improve his community and you can too! He’s here to tell us about the things he’s done and give some guidance on how you all can get involved and help make your community more like the place youR...

While Eneasz is busy at InkHaven, Steven sits down with Matt Freeman to talk about not-AI stuff! We had (in my opinion) a great conversation about stoic philosophy, the traps of getting too entrenched in any philosophical framework, and some of the ingredients of a happy life.

LINKS

• It’s Okay to Feel Bad for a Bit
• Doof! Media, the home of Matt’s other podcasts!
• Flanagan’s Wake

00:00:05 – Matt Fre...

We talk with Max Harms on the air for the first time since 2017! He’s got a new book coming out (pre-order your copy here or at Amazon) and we spend about the first half talking about If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies.

LINKS

• Max’s first book, Crystal Society
  • Eneasz’s audiobook of about the first two thirds of the first book
  • And the official audiobooks page
• Flash fiction contest that Eneasz...

Jay talks with us about finding Alpha – returns above the base rate – in every day life (and what this means).

LINKS
Optimize Everything, Jay’s substack
Jay on Twitter
Arbor Trading Bootcamp
Kelsey’s argument that We Need To Be Able To Sue AI Companies

00:00:05 – Alpha with Jay
01:28:53 – Guild of the Rose
01:31:00 – Miscellanea
01:40:58 – Thank the S...

We continue discussing Nostalgebraist’s “The Void” in the context of how to relate to LLMs. If God imagines Claude hard enough, does Claude become real?

LINKS
The Void
Audio reading of The Void, from AskWho
The referenced episode where the three of us spoke of Janus’s post “Simulators”
Claude-Clark post – Simulacra Welfare: Meet Clark, by Grace Kind
Golden Gate Claude
Vox on Shrimp Welfare
Kelsey Piper on UBI not helping Amer...

We discuss Nostalgebraist’s “The Void” in the context of how to relate to LLMs.

“When you talk to ChatGPT, who or what are you talking to?”

LINKS
The Void
Audio reading of The Void, from AskWho
The referenced episode where the three of us spoke of Janus’s post “Simulators”
The Measure of a Man episode
Darmok episode
Kyle Fish on 80,000 Hours podcast
Contra Shrimp Welfare
UBI DoesnR...