The Evelyn Partners Investment Podcast

In November’s episode of the Evelyn Partners Investment Podcast, Cherry Reynard and Daniel Casali look at the financial market implications of the conflict and the humanitarian crisis unfolding in the Middle East. The tragic loss of innocent, civilian lives in the region is shocking and our thoughts are first and foremost with all those affected. While the impact on the financial markets has been limited, it may have longer term im...

Until recently, inflation appeared to be in retreat. Central banks felt sufficiently confident to pause on interest rate hikes. However, a blip in the inflation figures has worried investors, who fear more US rate rises could emerge as a result. The main culprit has been oil prices, which have moved higher in response to supply cuts from OPEC,

Expectations are still for a ‘soft landing’ in the US, with any recession likely to be sh...

The services sector continues to drive growth in the global economy, despite rising interest rates. Spending on services is being driven by savings built up during the Covid era, and pent-up demand for areas such as travel and leisure activities. Along with resilient labour markets, this has continued to push up consumption.

In the near-term, there is no sign of this stopping. Unemployment is still low and consumers still have mone...

The S&P 500 has just capped its longest winning streak in over a century, encouraged by better data on inflation, economic growth and corporate earnings. However, data remains volatile and it is possible that markets have moved too far too fast. Valuations now leave little margin for error.

July saw the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank raise rates once again, though many economists expect this to be the peak. However, ...

With the S&P 500 up 20% since October 2022, another bull market has begun. To date, it has been led by a narrow group of technology companies, but there are signs it may broaden out in the months to come.

This may create momentum for global stock markets in the second half of the year, even as a recession looms. Consensus expectations are now for a less severe recession than was expected a year ago. Falling expectations of peak...

2023 has seen a surprising revival in the technology sector. This defied the grim predictions of some investors who saw rising interest rates marking an end to the decade-long dominance of technology stocks. The sector’s strength has partly been driven by the excitement around artificial intelligence and its potential for disruption.

Artificial intelligence could be a major force over the next decade. Its influence is likely to be ...

The gold price has been rising, reaching a record high at over $2,000 per ounce in April. This suggests markets see an imminent end to the rate rising cycle in the US and further falls in the Dollar. Buying from foreign central banks is also driving the gold price higher, as countries seek to diversify their asset bases away from Western government bonds.

Markets believe inflationary pressures are ebbing. In the US, March’s CPI dat...

Financial markets have been dominated by the fallout from the banking sector turmoil in March. The problems at Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse were more a consequence of poor management than a broader fragility in the global banking system, but it has still unsettled bond and equity investors.

It has also prompted a reappraisal of interest rate expectations. Bond markets now expect the Federal Reserve to cut sooner. They beli...

There has been encouraging data on the health of the global economy in recent weeks, with employment, inflation and consumer spending all giving cause for optimism. There is increasing confidence that a hard landing may be avoided, in spite of higher interest rates.

However, financial markets have wobbled in recent weeks. In particular, investors continue to worry about further rate rises from the Federal Reserve, even though infla...

Global economic data is delivering some mixed messages on the outlook for the year ahead. There are encouraging signs on inflation, with energy and food prices gradually falling. However, employment data remains buoyant and a shock jobs number at the start of February gave investors a jolt.

The major central banks of the US, UK and Eurozone remain tight-lipped about whether a turn in the interest rate cycle is likely. They all rais...

Better news on inflation has sent markets higher in the early weeks of 2023. The reopening of China has seen a strong performance from Asian markets, as the Government puts its zero-Covid strategy behind it. Easing supply chain bottlenecks and falling commodity prices are also improving risk appetite.

However, recession remains a plausible outcome for most of the world’s largest economies. Consumers and businesses need to adjust to...

There’s been a meaningful rally in equity markets since mid-October, fuelled by hopes that inflationary pressures are moderating. Resilient corporate earnings have also played a role in supporting markets. However, few believe stock markets have turned a corner permanently, with plenty of bad news still to digest in the year ahead.

On the other hand, bonds could be back. As yields have risen and markets have priced in higher rates,...

Financial markets have remained volatile over the past month. In some cases, notably the UK, there were clear reasons for concern. However, some stability has returned to UK gilts and equities since Rishi Sunak has taken the reins as Prime Minister, rolling back the measures in the mini-budget and introducing greater fiscal discipline.

For the rest of the world, it’s just a question of watching the Federal Reserve. As Cherry Reynar...