Baseline + Anomaly = Decision

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In this powerful and highly practical episode, we unpack one of the most important (and misunderstood) aspects of human behavior analysis: the concept of baseline plus anomaly equals decision (B + A = D). 

During the episode, we dive deep into why our cultural obsession with "red flags" and anomalies often leads us astray, and why everything starts with understanding normal.

We also challenge the reactive approach to behavior analysis that seeks checklists for “bad actors” and instead, we show how developing a high-fidelity, context-rich baseline is the real key to situational awareness and predictive analysis. We briefly explore the origins of the Combat Hunter program, and provide real-world examples (from garbage day confusion to gas station parking lots), and illustrate how unconscious pattern recognition drives both correct and incorrect decisions.

Here's what you'll learn:

• Why context is king in behavioral observation
• How your brain already makes constant baseline-anomaly comparisons and how to do it better
• Why focusing only on anomalies can lead to dangerous blind spots
• How to build robust baselines using simple daily exercises
• What professionals (LE, military, teachers, EMTs) can do to spot pre-event indicators earlier

This episode is a must-listen for anyone in high-stakes roles, parents, educators, or anyone who wants to improve their ability to "read the room" (and their world)  with greater clarity and confidence.

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More about Greg and Brian: https://arcadiacognerati.com/arcadia-cognerati-leadership-team/

Episode Transcript

SPEAKER_00 (00:00):
Hello everyone and welcome to the Human Behavior
Podcast.
We've all been trained by thenews, social media, and bad
advice to hunt for red flags.
But what if that obsession ismaking you miss the most
important part of everysituation?
In today's episode, we'rebreaking down what might be the
most powerful and mostoverlooked tool for reading
human behavior.
Baseline plus anomaly equalsdecision.

(00:21):
It sounds simple because it issimple, but when you understand
how to build a high fidelitybaseline, you'll start seeing
things that others miss.
You'll stop chasing shadows andstart recognizing patterns.
You'll learn how to spot aproblem before it becomes a
threat.
And you'll see why weird isn'talways dangerous and why normal
is the key to everything.
This episode will challenge howyou look at people, places, and

(00:42):
behavior and give you a toolthat you can use today.
Thank you so much for tuning in.
We hope you enjoyed the episode,and don't forget to check out
our Patreon channel foradditional content and
subscriber only episodes.
If you enjoy the podcast, pleaseconsider leaving us a review and
more importantly, sharing itwith a friend.
Thank you for your time andremember, training changes
behavior.
Alright, Craig, we're going togo ahead and get started.

(01:02):
We have a good one today, andwe're going to be talking about
well, we're going to be talkingabout normal, typical, I guess,
I guess in a sense, we're goingto start there.
Today's going to be vanilla, ina sense, which is often
overlooked as being the mostimportant part.
And what I mean by that is whenwe start talking about behavior

(01:23):
and people want to, you know,talk about things they've seen
or things that are odd ordifferent, or this is unusual,
they they start with that, thething that's unusual, or the
thing that's different, or Idon't like this.
And you know, there's a culturalobsession with that, with like,
oh, that's a red flag, or that'san anomaly, or or you know, that

(01:44):
that's that's not that'sdifferent, or that's odd.
And you what you're notunderstanding when we do that is
that you're you're missing thethe key important part.
And this is why, you know, wehave a very simple algorithm
that we teach that has to dowith everything we do with human
behavior, but but in decisionmaking and sense making and
problem solving.
And that one is the baselineplus anomaly equals decision.

(02:07):
And and this B plus A equals Dis the most elegant way I've
seen that you can use in anysituation, anywhere in life, to
kind of figure out what's goingon and make an accurate
comparison, right?
Because every perception wemake, everything we see is sort
of based on our own pastexperiences, and it's it already

(02:27):
is a comparison.
So the reason why I kind ofwanted to jump into this today
because we we we talked aboutbaselines and anomalies and
decisions in all kinds ofdifferent episodes, but we've
never really broken down exactlywhere this algorithm came from,
why it's significant, how to useit really effectively, and
really focusing in on the mostimportant part, that baseline or
that context for the situation.

(02:47):
So this all came from too, Imean, from from your work a long
time ago, and then reallystarted getting out there with
when you, you know, you youhelped develop the Marine Corps
Combat Hunter program.
And so, you know, you had to youhad to have a simple way to go,
all right, well, what what do Ido?
All right, I've I've figured outthe situation.
This is what I think I see, Igotta make a decision.

(03:08):
And that's all based on anotherthings that we're gonna get
into, but it's it's a very and Iuse the term elegant algorithm
in a way, elegant in thescientific term, meaning it's
the it's the most simple thingthat you can use for this, and
then you can kind of go as farin detail as necessary.
So that's sort of the preview,Greg.
But but you know, what the thepoint of this episode, and we're

(03:31):
gonna get into all kinds ofdifferent examples.
I'm gonna explain everything,what this means, but the point
of this is that we all miss themost important part, or
typically I see the mostimportant thing.
And you know, everyone wantslike this list of things.
What should I look out for?
Like a you know, a s who's gonnabe the one that's a school
shooter.

(03:51):
Give me the list of things Ineed to look for, give me the
list of things I need to lookfor in this crowd of the person
that's gonna do something.
And that just simply doesn'texist.
It really, really doesn't existbecause none of these, you know,
behaviors are are are they'reall meaningless, you know,
without some sort of context.
Or or there's they're so obviousthat it's you don't need to name

(04:15):
it, you don't need a list forit, right?
It's like it's something so thatthat any lay person would go,
well, that's a problem, you knowwhat I mean, right there.
And so so the it's almost likeyou're wasting your time trying
to do that because depending onwhat you're looking for, it
might change.
And and so, in tactics andtechniques, and procedures and

(04:35):
things change over time.
So, what we're really focusingon today is this baseline plus
anomaly equals decision,explaining what it means, but
really, really understanding howimportant baseline development
is in no matter what situation,before you make any type of
comparison.
So, I want to throw to you realquick, but I forgot to mention
before we got on too that it didget the alert we've had.

(04:56):
So, thank you to everyonelistening because we've had now
over 250,000 downloads of ourpodcast.
So that's a big number.
So we appreciate it.
So continue sharing it withfriends.
We we we really do appreciatethat.
That's the biggest thing youcould do.
There's always more on Patreon,but but just sharing it and
giving us a thumbs up and a likeand stuff, it goes a long way
for getting this stuff out here.
So, Greg, I want to throw youwhere to start if you want to

(05:19):
start with the the historical250,000 downloads and why we're
not partying.

SPEAKER_02 (05:24):
Woo-hoo! Yeah, does that translate to any money at
all, Brian?

SPEAKER_00 (05:29):
Uh technically, loosely, you can draw some lines
from here to there, but we'renot at the point yet where we're
we're we're in a sense heavilymonetized from this.
But it it isn't well, it's it'senough to pay it's enough to pay
for all this stuff, like thesubscription and this stuff.
Yeah, so that's why, and shoutout to our Patreon members for

(05:49):
that as well, because it allowsus to keep doing this.
But I yeah, one of the that wasa big, huge 30,000 foot
overview.
So let's go ahead and jump in,Gregory, maybe give some
historical context too, if youwant.

SPEAKER_02 (06:00):
So, so and inshallah to the 250,000 downloads, that's
amazing.
So, what I wrote down the first,first of all, incredible intro.
It just it nails it from so manydifferent angles and gives us so
much to do.
You watch a person wearing theirbaseball cap backwards, and the
first thing I want to do is slapit off their heads.
Because it's like, do youunderstand what that brim is

(06:20):
for?
Do you understand what that'sdesigned to do, right?

SPEAKER_00 (06:24):
And so that's the that's the gun, the remember
Gunny lens.
He said there's two peopleauthorized to wear hat
backwards, snipe snipers andcatchers, and you're not one of
them.
Remember, he said around.

SPEAKER_02 (06:35):
So and what I mean by that is like Brian, you
brought up such great points,but let's go back for a minute
to the enhanced or the CombatHunter program.
And the first thing I wrote downis enhanced optics and
observation.
That's a simple skill.
That's that's physics andscience and prisms and distance
and comparison.
So what you do is you go, wow,that's not a leaf or a tree.

(06:58):
That's somehow different fromthe other things around it.
So let's dig a little bitdeeper, okay?
It's okay to say differentthere.
That's okay.
Then all of a sudden you go, allright, well, tracking.
Well, tracking is merely aprotracted game of tag, it's
transfer evidence awareness.
Okay, that piece of fiber isn'torganic to this environment, so

(07:20):
therefore it must have beendeposited there by somebody
else.
So if we follow up on that.
Okay, so it's different fromfrom what I'm looking at.
Now I'm not afraid of the worddifferent, but what happens is
when we look at the third leg,the third pillar, which I did,
which is human behaviorprofiling, when you start saying
different or odd or unusual, youstart walking back science and

(07:43):
going with opinion-basedtestimony, and it's gonna blow.
So, what do I mean by that?
So there's a lady that Shell andI know that always has a
different color hair, and it'snot hair color found in a bottle
that you would ever buy.
No, it's uh uh vivid purple,okay?
It's uh bright blue, like smurfblue, you know?
And and the idea is that peoplewould look and go, man, that's

(08:05):
an odd character.
We better keep an eye on her.
No, that's that she's anindividual.
That that's her way of copingwith her environment.
When in no mega episodes, folks,when you look at somebody and
you go, they're unusual, that'san internal baseline.
You're comparing that to whatyou do at home, how you view the
world, the gosh damn profile youset on your computer, what

(08:28):
Instagram site you visit andeverything.
And that's no comparison at all.
There's no science behind that,unless what you want to do is
go, I don't want to spend therest of the afternoon with this
person.
You know, it's likely I I'm notgoing to, you know, swipe right
or left.
I don't know what directionanymore, because I go both ways,
literally and figuratively.
But the idea here is that theidea behind baseline plus

(08:51):
anomaly equals decision is ifyou have a robust enough
baseline, what's clinicallynormal for the environment that
you're observing, then anomalieswill out themselves.
And the idea behind that is thatthey're pushed out by the
environment because they don'tnaturally fit.
And a gr a great way of thinkingabout that is if you look at the

(09:13):
text on a page.
So whether you print out like aword doc or you're reading a
book later or you're looking ata magazine, all those lines, you
notice there's not real stadialines.
There's there's not a black lineunder those words.
They just follow a line, okay,and they're all in an order that
when you look at them, you go,wow, that that's pretty neat.
Look, left to right, it'sperfect.

(09:35):
If one of those letters was aquarter of an inch below the
rest, or or a sixteenth of aninch, or it was bold, or it was
red, and everything else wasblack, it would stick out,
wouldn't it?
And those things would make youwonder way a reasonable person
wonder, hey, I wonder what's upthere.
So an anomaly is something thatisn't what we expected.

(09:56):
It falls below our expectation.
It isn't what we've seen thethousand times that we got up in
the morning and went to thatStarbucks or started our car or
anything.
Like you ever go out and startthe truck on a cold morning and
you go, Wow, I don't know whatthat sound is, but that
certainly isn't normal.
It's not normal based on what,Brian.
So the idea is that you can usean internal baseline by

(10:18):
comparing it to the externalbaseline for normalcy baseline,
and then determine anomalies.
But what you can't do is youcan't walk around through life
going, well, that's different.
That's that's unusual.
Therefore, there's anythingassociated with it danger,
likelihood, opportunity.
You can't do that.
And and science proves us out onthat.
That's why math is consistent,that's why science is

(10:40):
consistent.
If it falls outside of thisnormalcy for a mathematical
equation, then guess what?
Your answer is gonna be wrongevery time.
And and now that's what we aregoing for is a scientific
scrutiny, a level of scientificscrutiny that can be repeated.
And if it can't be repeated,right?
And you said something, let meadd this too.

(11:00):
I'm gonna go just a littledeeper on the final comment.
You you said about schools.
Look, we have resigned ourselvesto the fact that we're gonna
take a look at babies in thewomb, follow them into the
delivery room, go out tomaternity, and at some point
we're gonna be able to pick outthird row, second kid in, he's
gonna be our mass killer, he'sgonna be our shooter, he's gonna

(11:21):
be something else.
Brian, those those don't exist.
One day, maybe genetics and DNAand some blood profile.
You might be able to tell a kidthat's likely to have cancer
later in life or likely to haveyou know a bad prostate or
something.
But but the idea of saying thisperson's gonna split some wigs,
you can't do that.
But you know when you can do it?

(11:42):
When you're glass in the parkinglot and you see somebody back
dragging a heavy bag from theiruh can and it you get what I'm
trying to say?
So we stick to a very simplealgorithm that's been proven for
thousands of years in anyenclave of humans, and it's
repeatable.
So if you are looking for a verysimple program, just write down

(12:02):
B plus A equals D, you don'teven need us anymore.
That alone will get you throughevery day.

SPEAKER_00 (12:07):
And that that's that's that's the point here
about why I say it's so elegant.
Like if I start looking ateverything and is a baseline
plus a nominal equals decision,one we'll we'll get to
everything, but just thebaseline, right?
So if I heavily define thecontext of the situation that
I'm in, the time of day, thelocation, the weather, the this,
and then all of the typical orlikely behavior I should expect

(12:30):
to see there based on myexperience, based on what I
know, what's typical or normal.
And we really mean that in aclinical sense.
I like that you bring up the youknow, someone with the blue hair
or the oh, they've got thisbumper sticker on their car.
It's like, yeah, all humans areon transmit.
They like to send their messageout and let everyone know what
they're thinking.
That that's not that's not odd,that's not different, that's
that's normal, that's typicalhuman behavior.

(12:52):
Uh the kid acting up in class,okay, that's typical.
Kids do that, right?
So, so what you have to startwith is really focusing on what
that that environment is andwhat you should really expect to
see based on everything youknow.
And and so if you just focus ongetting better and better and
adding more and more informationto that, like you you you said,

(13:14):
you know, like a robustfidelity-filled baseline.
So, what you mean and byfidelity is well, actually, why
don't why don't you explain whatyou mean by like a
fidelity-filled baseline?

SPEAKER_02 (13:24):
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
So the amount of granularity,the amount of differentiation,
the amount of comparablealternatives and various
functions of what you're lookingat make it robust, meaning you
put time into it and and workedat it.
And fidelity means that all ofthose components working

(13:44):
together are what makes theMonet, what made the Mona Lisa,
what makes this rich tapestrythat you're looking at.
And the more components that arein there that have to be there
to create that vision thatyou're looking at, make it
easier for you to say that'ssticking out.
So if we go to the zoo and we'relooking at everything, but we
come to a cage that has aturnip, we're gonna know that

(14:06):
the turnip is somehow differentbecause it's not a fur-bare
environment like all the otherones that we wanted to touch at
the petting zoo, right?
So so the idea is that when weendeavor to go robust, we say
that we're gonna go with thescientific method.
When we just look at a personand go, man, can she imagine?
Look at those slacks.

(14:27):
That doesn't go with that top.
That person's a little odd andnow they're somehow different.
No, because we're all individualsnowflakes.
We're all, like you said, alwayson transmit and we're always
competing for some form ofattention.
Even if we're quiet, the quietperson, the wallflower in the
room, are they not, you know,transmitting their intent?
You know, so so if we just go bythat, if we go by like

(14:49):
personality or a person's senseof humor or their manner of
dress, what we're gonna do iswe're gonna get into a binary.
I like it, I hate it.
And then once we do that, nowit's emotional-based testimony,
and and it's not gonna be uhrigorous, right?
We want something rigorous thatwe can shake and look at and
hold.

SPEAKER_00 (15:07):
There, there's there's like you said, there's
no rigor, and then there's nothere when it's emotionally
based or values-based, or youknow, I I don't or idea uh
ideologically based, and and andthat almost never matters unless
it's something so incongruentwith what a baseline should be.
So, like by Fidelity Fieldbaseline, like I I look at it

(15:29):
this is like if you come up andsay, Well, I saw this weird
thing in the parking lot, and inthis parking lot, it's like,
well, well, hang on.
If you start with it was theparking lot of a Walmart at in a
small town in whatever, outsideof a major area next to the
inner state at 10 o'clock in themorning on a Sunday, that okay,
I'm now I yeah, I can build inexactly now.

(15:51):
I understand the relevance ofyour observation.
Now I understand why that'sdifferent.
But if I don't do any of thatand I'm just trying to focus on
these individual things, well,that's that overemphasis on this
anomaly part.
That's that you're putting yourfinger on the scale.
And you even said, like, if youif you're especially if you're
trying to communicate thatmessage, right?
Well, now I'm already if I it'sit's like why we why we don't

(16:11):
use the term suspicious.
Hey, that's suspicious.
It's like, okay, if I tell yousomething suspicious, what do
you automatically start doing?
You're gonna start looking forreasons why it's suspicious.
If I go, hey, that's interestingto me, shit.
I have no idea why you find itinteresting.
So I have to figure it out too.
And then maybe I'll come to thesame conclusion that you did,
and now that adds a little bitmore rigor to it.
So it's this focus on on thisbaseline, and and we forget, and

(16:34):
this is where you know peoplekind of forget how much they
already know.
Because you know, most humansare so down and in, but because
we go to the same places everysingle day, like we don't attend
to any of this stuff in ourenvironment anymore because
we're so technologicallyfocused, you're just kind of on
autopilot.
It's like when you go somewhereand you're driving for a while
and you're kind of out of it,and then you get home and you're

(16:54):
like, holy shit, I don'tremember any part of that ride,
right?
Because your brain switched toautopilot in a sense.
So but but what you actuallyhave is so many file folders, so
much there that you see everyday.
You you sort of take it forgranted and you don't notice.
It's not interesting, it's notnew, it's not novel to you.
So your brain just throws itback.

(17:14):
But what we're saying, it's likethat's the most important part,
right?
So, like it's not unlike youknow, watching a movie or TV
show, the set dressing, thebackground, that's all there to
give the relevance to what themain characters, the two of them
are having a conversation about.
Without all that stuff, it wasjust on a sound state, it would

(17:35):
then that it wouldn't have anymeaning whatsoever.
And it would not even it, itwould be just it'd be nonsense
to you.
You'd be like, I don'tunderstand anything that's going
on.
So that all provides a context.
So the better I get atdeveloping that context, this
baseline, like like you said,and and you could kind of
explain this a little bit.
So what you said was if I get Idon't have to proactively, in a

(17:58):
sense, look for anomalies.
I just have to get really,really good at understanding
what the baseline is, and thenthose anomalies sort of emerge
or appear on their own, or theycome from that.
What do you what do you what doyou mean by that?

SPEAKER_02 (18:10):
So so listen, if you're a copper, if you're in
corrections, if you're LE court,uh fire, first responder, HR
teacher, all that other stuff,you have to actively hunt for
anomalous behavior in yourbaseline every day, or you're
gonna be surprised by it.
There's the jack in a box.
But the average human beinggoing around their day, an
anomaly is going to presentitself because it's going to be

(18:33):
outside of the norm and it'sgoing to give you pause.
You're going to pause for aminute and go, hey, wait a
minute, there's an empty parkingspot.
My car was here.
You're going to say, hey,listen, where is my phone?
I had a run Bailey's phone tourlast night.
We had a whole bunch ofdifferent things that were going
on.
Uh, Nico's on a fire, Bailey'son surgery, Shell and I are
watching the baby.
We had switch cars and stuff, sonow the phone's missing.

(18:55):
You can't be on call and nothave a phone.
Okay, so why is that important?
Well, where's the last placethat I that I put the phone?
That becomes the anomaly.
Well, I had your truck.
I bet it's in the truck.
That's likelihood.
So the idea is that having arobust baseline, even if that
baseline is in progress, even ifyou're building it on the road,
then guess what?
Those anomalies will come up andthey'll stick out.

(19:17):
So, so why do we why is there anover reliance from us at
Arcadia?
And we start talking aboutobservation methods.
We talk about the, you know,surveillance and and the more
you watch something, the betteryou're going to learn.
Well, you know, I I had fourmonths ago into the doctor's
office pretty gosh damnregularly here.
And one of the things I noticedabout the doctor is in their

(19:38):
office they used a microscopeand he had a light source to
look in my mouth and in my ears,and he used x-rays to look
inside of me, and then he hadpeople analyze things uh with
other scientific methodology.
Why would we not want to putsomething on the glass and have
sustained observation andcompare things in our
environment when the best of usdoes that all for a living?

(20:02):
Why why do we have a moviecritic?
Why do we why do we compare whatthe best book is?
Because we understand thatthere's a hierarchy, and it's
not Maslow, you fuck.
It's a hierarchy of how thingsmake themselves aware to us, and
some things become moreimportant.
The engine warning light, that'smore important.
Our kid not wanting to get outof bed and being mopey in the

(20:22):
morning.
Is there a problem at school, ordoes a kid have a fever?
So all of those things would notbe possible if it wasn't for the
baseline, the beginning.
The baseline is the thing withwhich we can compare.
And so if we have a faultybaseline or we rely too much on
an internal baseline, there's nocomparison.
And that's what I mean, likewith tracking, transfer

(20:44):
evidence.
It's very easy.
That shoe impression wasn'tthere.
Let's take a moulage and walkaround till we find somebody
with the same shoe.
Okay, that's pretty easy.
Uh optics and observation whenyou're scanning, go right to
left.
Why?
Because you were born readingleft to right.
Reverse it if you're overseas.
And and the idea is that yourbrain will go, that's anomalous

(21:05):
for you.
So, so you're already set upsurvival-wise for you to see
these anomalies.
If you add being trained to huntfor them and and you learn a
little each day to actively lookfor them and compare in your
environment, imagine how goodyou're gonna be in a short time.
Imagine what you can do in aweek or a month.

SPEAKER_00 (21:26):
And and that you you bring up a uh a number of good
points, which is why we use thisstructured methodology on how to
do this.
Because, like you said,technically, you know,
unconsciously, your brain isconstantly trying to look for
things in its environment that'sgonna hurt you, right?
So it's constantly going, like,is that gonna kill me?
Can I eat that?

(21:46):
Can I appropriate with that?
And it's very, very simple, it'svery, very primal.
And so, because that's alreadyhappening, we have this like we
we we we automatically want togo to sort of the worst case
scenario.
We automatically want to thinkthis.
I mean, just like look at everynews story that comes out.
It's just this is breaking news,and this is the end of the
world, and everything, like,what the hell?

(22:07):
Like, what's going on here,right?
I mean, not giving me anycontext, you're giving me all
this, this is why this is sodifferent.
But but we're prime that way, ina sense, as human beings, right?
That that helps us in survival,and so it wants to put it in,
and so this is different.
I don't like it.
There's something up here, andyou kind of have to to take over
that system in a sense, say thisis different, this is why I do

(22:29):
it.
It's like so this seems odd, orthis seems different, this seems
incongruent, it's interesting tome.
Let me let's make it normal.
How do I make this normal?
Because if I then try to make itnormal, it's likely gonna be go,
oh, now I see the baseline, nowI get it, or it's not, and like
you said, it's gonna stick outeven more and go, well, hang on,

(22:50):
this is something I really haveto attend to.
So, like real quick example islike just the other day, I go to
pick up the terrorist fromschool and I'm leaving in the
afternoon, and a neighbor's uhgarbage is out, but I'm you
know, people put their garbageout the night before or
whatever, you know, and I'mlike, okay, well, let's that's
weird.
It's not garbage day tomorrow.
I wonder, you know, maybethey're maybe they're going out

(23:12):
of town.
Sure.
So they put it out the nightprior, or you know, they're not
gonna be there to do that.
Like, okay, and then I go pickthem up and I come back, and now
a few more garbage cans are out.
I'm going, wait a minute.
And then I'm going, oh crap,it's Tuesday.
I thought it was still Monday.
That's right.
Tomorrow is garbage.
So it so that that that anomalywas like, hmm, I gotta figure
out what that is, or that'sinteresting to me.

SPEAKER_02 (23:33):
Screaming at you, though.
It but it was so presenteditself, right?

SPEAKER_00 (23:36):
But that was because, and this is something
you brought up.
This is because my at thatmoment, sort of like I got the
baseline wrong.
I had the wrong day of the week.
And so this is why this is soimportant, because if you start
off in the wrong baseline,everything that comes after that
is gonna be shit.
Meaning it's it's not gonnawork, it's gonna be bad math,
it's not gonna add up, right?

(23:58):
If I don't have that, that thethe the initial primary thing
from which I'm comparingeverything to, if that's not
clear, that's a little off.
That's a little like you know,the you know, maybe I'm a little
off on my my dope on my scope.
Well, yeah, guess what?
A thousand yards later, you'renot hitting anything, right?
And that that's the idea islike, and this is why we focus

(24:18):
on that so much, and a lot ofour exercises do that and and
and how we do that.
We we we we have a whole bunchof different ways, like our
first principles and the domainsand stuff that we talk about,
that how to make sense out ofthis, but as a as just a very
powerful tool, like I have tolook at what is normal, what is
typical in everywhere I go.
And there's certain things thatI know.

(24:40):
You know what a gas station issupposed to look, operate, feel,
smell like at different times ofthe day in different
neighborhoods, a parking lot,whether it's at the mall or it's
at a small strip mall or it'sthe neighborhood, whatever.
Like, you already have thesefile folders, these experiences
from which you can draw from.
And and that comes from yourjust life experience.

(25:01):
And so if I'm thinking aboutthat and always trying to
develop my baseline as I gothrough and what's typical, what
should I expect to see when Iget there?
Like, that's when you get thetime and distance, in a sense.
That's when you get more timeand distance because, like you
said, now I can see thoseanomalies way farther out.
It's not, it doesn't have to beright up my face anymore.

SPEAKER_02 (25:22):
Yeah, and and let's think about that for a minute.
Let's just use a gas station,one of Brian's favorites, but
any place would work.
Spend a lot of time in there.
If you take a look at an urbanversus a rural environment, if
you take a look at a picnicthat's at the you know community
community center in a ruralenvironment, and somebody going

(25:43):
behind a building uh away fromthe crowd to urinate, that's not
you know untoward.
That's not something that youwould be unexpected.
It's you know pretty routine.
There's only a couple ofbathrooms, the bathrooms are
full, we're outside.
Hey, we're out in the woods,nobody can see me.
We're gonna do that.
Now, if you change that, andthat's somebody in a place where
there's cubicles, and they godown to the last cubicle and

(26:03):
urinate, that's gonna stick out.
Why?
Because you haven't seen thatbefore.
So now you're at the gasstation, and instead of coming
up to the counter to pay, theperson comes up to the counter
and defecates on the counter.
That's gonna stick out to you,and you're going, well, you
know, I anybody would see that.
No, people don't fucking seethat.
And that's how a place right infront of you gets robbed, and
the dude people do gasdrive-offs and all that other

(26:26):
stuff.
All of the behavior that you'vebeen conditioned to expect,
that's the baseline.
And what happens is it becomesnormal over time.
The gift of time, okay?
And distance means that distancein a linear sense, but disturb
distance in the spatial sense aswell.
I'm the fly in the wallobserving this.
Then I'm conducting theexperiment, then guess what?

(26:46):
I'm the lab rat.
And each time gives you adifferent perspective.
And each one of thoseperspectives adds up to the
fidelity of your perception.
And so there now, when you'restanding at the counter, the
person standing next to you isnot joking, not doing anything
else, got the hoodie up, lookingdown, all that other stuff, and
you go, well, this is earlysigns of drive-by.
You know, we're gonna getrobbed.
Okay, what sends your hacklesup, what gets your blood going,

(27:10):
is your brain and and and yourelectrochemical
neurotransmitters are alreadythere.
They're already going survivalsituation.
This is odd, getting the rapeyvibe, whatever.
Okay, but who doesn't listen?
We don't listen.
Why?
Because we don't give ourselvesthe gift of time and distance,
and now I'm in a hurry.
Now I almost am going to belate.
If I don't do this right now, ifthese things don't line up, what

(27:32):
we do is we go outside of natureand nurture and create a
timeline that's unsupportable.
And and then our brain fights usall day long, and we wonder why
we have so much fatigue.
Listen, we were stronger.
We we we had to work harder, wehad to run faster, or our
environment would kill us.
Now our environment is every bitas dangerous, but we think that

(27:55):
tech is gonna take care of us.
We know that ChatGPD will cleanup my editing.
We know that this, see, Brian,so so the more reliant we become
on that, the less we have thatgranularity-filled,
fidelity-filled baseline.
Every once in a while, man, yougot to stop and you got to smell
the roses.
You know where that comes from?
You know, you know where thatthose terms come from?

(28:16):
It's because people didn't andthey got hit by the horseless
carriage.
They the idea is that if you'renot tuned into your environment,
then guess what?
Getting your baseline wrongcould kill you.
And that's exactly what you'retalking about.
You just had it off by a day.
Imagine if you had it off by aperson or or you know, some
other factor that was much moreuh dangerous and serious, right?

SPEAKER_00 (28:39):
And and yeah, and you're you're hitting on a
number of things, obviously, youknow, a much more reliance on
technology and just how we aretoday.
And you're more likely to diefrom from overeating than you're
ever going to die fromstarvation.
So so you though these sort ofunconscious uh primal skills
aren't honed, but they're butthey're there, me meaning like
you you can still use them andget better at them.
Because even recently I was Iwas just reading something where

(29:01):
you know they thought because ofthe widespread use of all the
GPS systems and navigationsystems and cars and everything,
like people's ability tocritically think and to orient
themselves and know where theyare, it's like gone now.
Basically, just everyone's justlike an automaton in a sense,
and it's really showing in allof these other areas, you know.
That and so that's why you thenhave to, okay, we got to get

(29:23):
sensors on the car, now it'sgonna stop automatically because
you know, so we we keep comingup with the technological
solutions because as humans wedo that, but but that that
that's a it's just a greatanalogy.
But one of the things you youyou mentioned here, not not
explicitly, but uh I want tomake sure everyone understands
it, is sort of the the idea thatthis when you when you talk
about a baseline, it's notsomething that is just okay,

(29:44):
here's now here's the checklistfor the baseline, or here's
write it out.
Meaning it's it's somethingthat's dynamic and and
constantly in flux.
So I have to constantly updatethe baseline, right?
That is all that is the thingthat's always going.
Kind of moving and ebbing andflowing, right?
So what that is and what'stypical is is always dependent.

(30:05):
And the more factors I can usein that, the geographic
location, the people there, thetime of day, the weather, the
you know, the recent currentevents in the area, whatever,
like the more I can add intothat, the more sense I can make.
The more the the easier it isfor me to see things at a
distance.
Then I'm going, wait a minute,that guy's did one too many laps

(30:28):
around there.
And you know what?
He's not looking over at the ohcrap, he's going right for the
counter, he's going to rob thisplace, right?
And and that's where thosethings stick out.
And you can see that through thewindow before you ever walk into
the gas station to pay.
You know what I'm saying?
It's it's it's knowing all ofthat stuff.
And so being able to do that isis important, which is why we
talk about some of theprinciples that we do about

(30:49):
human behaviors and why we tryto, we're not oversimplifying
them, but we are for the sake ofthis for baseline development.
Like when we say people are thesame all over the world, people
are constantly on transmit,people set patterns, like
there's take take out this wholemotive and the psychology behind
it and look at the physics andthe neuroscience, right?

(31:12):
We look for familiarity, right?
So I'm going to find a placethat's cognitively close enough
that looks like something I'vebeen to before, and that's where
I'm gonna go because that'swhere I'm comfortable.
So I can I can expect thosethings in certain environments,
I can have a baseline for myselfand do this.

SPEAKER_02 (31:29):
So exactly.
So so look at that for just aminute.
The baseline for yourself.
That's one of the onlyconstructive and productive
internal baselines.
Okay.
So look at how we use that witha comparison.
Always have to have acomparison, or you don't know
what you're not gonna knowheaven if you haven't been to
hell, right?
The idea is that all humans havethe same core temperature, 98.6

(31:50):
degrees, let's say.
I I don't know if that'saccurate because I it is, you
got it.

SPEAKER_00 (31:54):
You're horrible at numbers, yeah.

SPEAKER_02 (31:56):
Exactly.
And I'm so afraid to say itwrong, and people go, he's an
idiot.
Uh they'll say it anyway.
But listen, 98.6.
So if you're one degree warmerthan 98.6, you have a fever and
you feel like shit all day long.
If you're one degree cooler,you're sick and you might be
dying.
Okay, you feel horrible.
So 98.6 becomes the baseline.

(32:16):
So the internal baseline for allhumans, but guess what?
This morning, you're not allhumans and you're not in
society, you're not incommunity, you're in your
bedroom, and you're a degree anda half or two degrees warmer and
you feel like shit.
So the first thing you do is go,I have inoperable brain cancer,
and you jump out the third floorwindow.
No, what you do is you go, hey,listen, I better, you know, look

(32:38):
and see if there's any othersymptoms.
Well, that's what you're talkingabout by developing that robust
baseline, Brian, because thefidelity comes from how much a
time you're applying to comparethings and say, well, I wasn't
this warm when I woke up to peefour hours ago.
So maybe it just started, maybethis is the beginning of
influenza.

(32:59):
I did and those comparisons.
So so when you're looking atBilly in the classroom or
looking at, you know, Sally inthe in the grocery store, you
can't put undo things on themand go, well, that kid doesn't
have a very high intellectuallevel, or I don't know what
they're being taught at home.
One, that shit doesn't matterbecause it's not scientific.
So take the non-science out ofit and go, okay, that kid's

(33:22):
clothes are clean compared tokids of that age that I've seen
at this time during the day in anon-playground environment.
You see what I did there?
You see how that now becomessomething?
And I can repeat that and I cancheck that.
And so I'm conducting a socialexperiment or a physiological
experiment.
And you know what?

(33:42):
The psychological experiment isokay, but only if you compare it
against that person's baseline,not against your baseline.
Because you're very different.
You have different tastes.
What you watch is different.
I'm a furry.
I don't understand people thatdidn't want to do that kind of
stuff, right?
So automatically I'm gonna besuspect of that person.
And you said we don't want to besuspicious, we want to be

(34:03):
interesting.
So the idea is that I cannotadjust another person's baseline
by imposing mine, because thatbecomes a bias that I is
non-supported over time.
But if I watch and allow it toplay out, now I can compare it
against them.
And guess what?
If we were doing an interview,wouldn't that be called
impeaching somebody's testimony?
I bring you to a story, then Igo back and you tell the story

(34:26):
again, and none of the facts arethe same.
Well, wait a minute.
I I know it happened because Idid the investigation, baseline.
Now I'm listening to you, okay?
It's above or below thebaseline, or exactly what I'm
looking for, and now I can makea determination.
Does that make sense?
I I mean if if not for thatcomparison, I have nothing.

SPEAKER_00 (34:43):
Yeah, and and I it's we uh this is another kind of
natural part of humans is thatwe have to we have to like come
up with a definitive thing topoint to and go, that's the
anomaly, in a sense, because theit's it's it's much more
difficult and much more complexto sit here and talk about okay,
like the what's normal aboutthis shopping center or this

(35:06):
grocery store.
Like, what do you mean?
It's just like, no, there's somuch there that you're taking
for granted.
But it's easy to say, like, I'vesomeone's sharing a story with
me, and it's like, yeah, andthey showed a video of this
thing, and you know, thenthey're like, Yeah, and see,
that's when I knew when he wentinto his waist, he was gonna
come out with a gun, and it'slike, Yeah, you were picking up
on all that five minutes beforethat happened, right?

SPEAKER_02 (35:28):
So but you're so but they weren't cat bang thinking,
exactly.

SPEAKER_00 (35:31):
Yes, and so they go to but this point when they
turned into this, it's like nono no no no no no no.
You are unconsciously aware ofall of this other stuff going
on.
That's that's why you knew atthat point, but but that's not
the point to look at, it'severything after that.
But we do that just as humans.
Like, I oh I forgot to wash myyou know underwear and we won

(35:51):
the championship game.
Like, well, now I know if Idon't wash my underwear, like
we're gonna win thechampionship.
Like we we we have to point tosomething, but but this is this
is for for all humans to that.
I mean, that was like a reallyyou know, the the the not
washing the clothes is obviouslya very, you know, very simple
one, but but we do this and wepoint to it and go, well, that's

(36:12):
when they did this, because one,it's easier for me to articulate
because that's the odd thing.
It's hard for me to articulatethe baseline, it's hard for me
to articulate what's typical,what's normal.
Yet that's where all the that'swhere the power is.
That's where everything is at.
It's that building that that youknow, just and and even even
like a baseline of knowledgeabout an environment or a thing

(36:33):
or a you know what I mean?
Like like politics.
Everyone talks about politics,and almost no one has a baseline
understanding of, especiallygeopolitics, our political
system, how the parties wereformed, what our three branches
of government do.
It's like you you you you'reyou're commenting on all the
stuff, but you don't know thesefundamental core things very
well.
So, how what are you comparingthis to?
Like that's chaos to me.
Like you you you have to startsomewhere.

SPEAKER_02 (36:55):
Yeah, and so so two of our very good friends, Walt
Settlemeyer, distinguished uhsavage, love him to death, my
good old friend Darcy, haven'tmet Darcy Lutzinger yet, but you
know of his work and some of thethings he's done.
Uh, both of them spent asignificant time as EMTs,
paramedics, in an urbanenvironment that was very
challenging.
A lot of danger, a lot of badthings that happened.

(37:17):
Now, Brian, they had to bedropped into a scene where they
only know what they weredispatched to, assess the scene
quickly, assess it so they don'tget electrocuted or shot or
burned up or fall through ahole.
But then they have to look at aperson they've never met before.
They have to make an assessmenton that person, and then they
continue to update theirbaseline.

(37:37):
Is the pain better now or is itworse now?
Are you feeling can you breathebetter now?
Why am I bringing that one up ofeverything else?
That's what we're talking aboutwhen we're saying comparisons
against the baseline.
If an EMT can do it nine timesout of ten, much more than that,
I'm sure, and come to asuccessful resolution that this

(37:58):
is likely what's going on, andthese are the life-saving steps
I have to take to transport youto somebody that's even better
at it.
If they do that more, if not,then then every paramedic would
be driving in a black vehiclecalled the death sled, and they
would go very slow.
That's called a hearse, right?
But instead, they're able tohelp.
You know, the the the idea iswhat do they do?
They read signals coming from anenvironment, a rapidly changing

(38:22):
environment that's in flux.
They estimate and judge based ontheir experiences, this and
humans, right, and physiologyand science and medicine, they
judge these are likely thebiometrics that I'm looking for.
These are the things.
Now, can somebody fake it?
Yes, and most of them areexperts at figuring out this
guy's just a cry for help.
It's a fake.

(38:42):
So the idea is that there's somany of our jobs, motor vehicle
diagnostics.
I remember the days of pullingit in and a guy hearing it
going, oh, you got a rod, knock.
We can fix that without everhooking something up.
Shelley still does that.
Shelly's like, okay, your frontright tire is about three pounds
low on it.
I'm like, how do you do that?
I can hear it.
What do you mean you can hearit?

(39:03):
But listen, Brian, those sensemechanisms within us are
comparisons, and they'recomparing to a known.
And the known becomes abaseline.
So means and extremes are waysof judging a baseline, and then
an anomaly is something thatfalls outside or above or is
absent during something.
You get what I'm trying to say?

(39:25):
I mean, and it's so like yousay, it's so simple, it's
elegant.
I've heard that my entire life,and it's accidental.
You think I came to this on myown?
I'm reading up on all thesedifferent things, and it's all
one thing.
Here's the normal, okay?
And these things are are somehowabnormal.
And when I find theseleukocytes, that means there's
an infection here or there.
So medicine does it, you know,uh science does it, math does

(39:48):
it.
How do you figure out where youmade the mistake?
Well, you line this up, and ifit doesn't fit this formula,
that's where your you know lineof mistaken data is.
Come on.
And and so why wouldn't we wantto use something this simple?
Because it improves our everydaylife.

SPEAKER_00 (40:03):
Yeah, and and you know, we we also have this
baseline, right?
You look for anomalies and youkind of got to determine this,
you know, what's what's likely,because that's almost always
gonna be the answer.
What could this likely mean?
And yeah, what what's the mostdangerous thing this can be,
right?
And it meaning it continues thiscomparison process of okay, if

(40:25):
this guy's just pulling up toget gas, you know, what else
should I expect to see?
Okay, if this guy's pulling upto gas station because he's
gonna rob the place, well, well,what else would I expect to see
with that?
Well, there's other indicatorsthat I should get.
So you're you're doing thathypothesis testing as you go
along, and what you're doing isbasically just constantly

(40:46):
updating your baseline.
And if something doesn't godown, your something doesn't fit
the baseline, you're stillwatching more.
Now we're going, oh crap, thisis something different, right?
This isn't typical, right?
I have to make a decision.
And obviously, when you get in adecision, that's you know, one,
it's on you, and it's on whatyour role is, what your goal is,
what you're trying to do, thetotal, you know, the situation

(41:07):
itself, right?
It's going to be different foreveryone.
But but that's less importantthan all of this stuff up front,
all the stuff left on thetimeline.
This first part of it is likethe bedrock principle.
And I think it still continues,and uh any analysis I see,
right?
That's that's when I look forgood analysis when someone says,
Hey, this is what I think hashappened, because of this is
what I've typically seen.

(41:28):
This is what they always do.
But this time they did this,they said this, or they they
they you know, whatever theythey changed the way they did
things, okay, because they'reand knowing what we know about
human behavior, there has to bea reason for that.
There's a catalyst for you tochange something that you do.
So whether it's benign orwhether it's something bad,
whether it's serious, you youdon't necessarily know in that
moment, but it has nothing to dowith the psychology of that

(41:52):
person.
And I mean, you you brought upsome you brought up some great
stuff kind of right at thebeginning earlier because you're
talking about like, you know,nature and nurture a little bit
and and how those things playout, and you can predict who's
likely.
No, without a given context, youcan't predict the person who's
going to be a school shooteruntil they start taking steps to
be the school shooter.

SPEAKER_01 (42:11):
Yeah, exactly.

SPEAKER_00 (42:12):
Because if they if they maybe if there was an inner
maybe they have a chemicalimbalance and they had a bad
upbringing and this washappening, and then all and
everyone wants to blame thosethings, it's like, well, yeah,
but like if one of those thingshad changed, then this person
may have never done thatactually.
You you can't that that didn'tcause this, right?
It's correlated with it.
Maybe it's a contributingfactor.

SPEAKER_02 (42:34):
Columbine was delayed a day because when they
made their plan, they forgot toadjust for the next calendar
year and school was closed onthat day.
That changed everything, and wedon't know how many lives that
took or saved.
So you can't make a blanketstatement like that.
And you're you're absolutelycorrect.
So, how can we use it in apredictive analysis tool?

(42:56):
Well, October is domesticviolence month, right?
So domestic violence awarenessmonth is a very important thing.
So I would ask a cop, and wehave, you and I, numerous times,
what's it feel like to be ableto show up and go into anybody's
house at anybody's time, justlike the paramedic, you know,
even if the person doesn't wantyou there.

(43:17):
You know, somebody called,you're showing up at a scene,
you're walking in the house, yousit down, you shut up, it's
their house.
And then in that same breath, wetalk about it and we go, hey, I
wonder how a cop got shot onthat domestic when the husband
or wife pulled out a gun and theokay, Brian, your home is your
castle.
All right.
And I'm not talking castledoctrine, I'm talking I know

(43:37):
you.
I know me.
When we're in a rental car, thatrental car becomes our home away
from home for a while.
Okay, so anybody just, you know,the hobo Sam coming and sitting
in the backseat and going, hey,nice car.
Okay, we we would feel adifferent way against that.
That would be contrary to ourbaseline, that would be
anomalous.
Anomalies always feel bad.

(43:58):
I'm missing something.
Boy, I'm getting poked in thisshirt.
It's an anomaly because when Iwore my t-shirt, I didn't have
the same feeling.
So the idea is we have to remainsensitive to that fact.
So if we're sensitive to thefact that uh, you know, I'm now
I'm on a domestic violencecaper, and the husband is being
very protective of the home, andI don't predict that he may act

(44:19):
out violently, then it's myproblem, not that husband's
problem.
Because motive is much lessimportant than intent.
So now that I'm going, wow, Iforgot, you know, imminent
domain, I'm in this guy's house,I'm moving stuff around, giving
him orders and stuff, and I'mseeing that that's building up
the stress, building up thestress.
It's no longer the original callI was on.
Now it's him versus me or sheversus me, and now it's gonna

(44:42):
spill out of control.
So I can use it as a predictiveanalysis tool.
I can say it's not better now.
It's actually worse now, andcomms are getting worse.
So if I have a baseline forcomms, if I have a baseline for
cleanliness, if I have abaseline for smell, the more
baselines that I have withinthat complicated central
baseline, the more likely I'mgoing to have my sensors be

(45:05):
activated further out.
And you know, there would be agreat thing if we called that
something like the gift of timeand distance.
That's all it is, Brian.
The more sensors that we have,the more robust baselines that
we have, the more likely they'regoing to get triggered like a
smoke alarm before the firestarts.

SPEAKER_00 (45:21):
You know, you just gave actually, for example, just
happened to me over the weekendbecause I had sort of divided
attention.
So I was literally, we're allhanging out, kitchen, living
room.
Like I was cooking, uh puttingeverything together, getting the
grill going, putting the rub onthe meat, like doing everything
like that.
And I'm down in, you know, thethe insurgent is talking to my
wife, and she's talking aboutbecause she, you know, we she

(45:44):
gets she does some likebabysitting for us and for other
people and and works, you know,in any way she can.
She's always like, Yeah, I wantto work, I'm making money
because we're like, we're notbuying you that.
She's like, Well, what if I usemy own money?
We're like, okay, you know, tryto build good habits about
saving and this habit, which youhave to keep and this, but it,
but it's good, and it gives herlike she feels empowered, like
it's awesome.
She's like, Oh, I want to buythis thing.
And my wife's like, I'm notbuying you that.

(46:04):
She's like, Well, I'm gonna saveup for it.
She's like, Okay, like you wantto work and do that, like,
absolutely, right?
You want to instill those goodhabits.
Well, she was saying, Well, I Ibuy this, and I but she started,
I heard her like kind ofarguing, my wife, but I didn't
hear it as an argument because Iwas down and had divided
attention.
I was doing what I was doing, soI was throwing my comments in
from the side, thinking we werehaving a fun conversation or

(46:24):
just laughing about something.
Oh my god, I had no idea.
She all of a sudden starts,stands up, starts yelling,
storms out, runs upstairs, andmy wife is just staring at me,
looking at me, like, why do you?
And I was like, What well, whatdid I miss?
I was like, I thought we werethought we were in the circle of
trust there.
I thought we were all laughing,joking, having a good time.
She's like, No, she was gettingpissed the whole time.
That's why I wasn't sayinganything.
That's what, and because Iwasn't even attending to that, I

(46:47):
the I meaning I had completelymisjudged the baseline.
So, so what I should have seenas anomalies, I didn't because I
was so far off on where theconversation had started that I
came into that it exploded in myface like a freaking grenade,
and I never saw it coming.
And I was like, oh man, I justsit there apologizing.

(47:07):
I'm so sorry, I thought we werejust joking.
I didn't really know she wasgetting upset, you know.
It and so it was just a but it'sit's the same thing.
It's like, man, I'm I I totallymisread the baseline.
So everything after that pointwas a complete disaster and
catastrophe.
And I started throwing gasolineon this fire because I didn't
know there was a fire.

SPEAKER_02 (47:26):
So think about how important what you just said.
And Brian always comes up withthese great anecdotes, and
folks, you gotta start writingthem down and searching for them
in your own life.
Brian, if I'm gonna write apolice report, I want to write
exactly what happened, but Iwant to write it with the intent
of the judge reading it and thejury hearing it and seeing, wow,

(47:49):
I can put myself in thatperson's shoes at that time and
place.
I can feel what they felt, I cansmell and see what they did.
Most coppers that I know want toget through the report writing
process as quickly as possible.
And they forget to put thatfidelity in.
They forget to put that, youknow, hey, it was a foggy
morning, I couldn't see verymuch.
And, you know, my even myflashlight when I turned it uh

(48:11):
on bright, you know, wasreflecting more light back at
me.
I had to turn it on low beam,and that complicated the going
up the steps.
And and then I heard something,and you're going, why would you
go into that level of detail?
You're not Stephen King.
No, I've got to have that juryalong with me.
So they saw what I saw, theyfelt what I felt, Brian, because
then they'll understand what I'msaying.
And that's why clinically goingback, like like again, our

(48:33):
friend Steve Pappy, when whenPapinfluis takes a look at
something, what he does is verygood.
He doesn't just take a look atthe the white and the black on
the paper and go, hey, look atline 83, you know, the verb that
they use.
What he does is he he takes youback to the story that that that
criminal case is reporting aboutand how the attorney made the

(48:53):
jury feel in a specific way, howthat caused an outcome.
So, Brian, that's baselining.
And and an effective baselineallows us to do that in
everything.
It allows us to relate a story,the allegory of the cave.
It allows us to keep theattention of the class.
I've heard death by PowerPointsince you know the late 1970s,
early 1980s, and I've seen it abunch of times, but I use

(49:15):
PowerPoint, you use PowerPoint,and you know what?
That ain't death by PowerPoint.
So guess what that is?
That's the wrong baseline.
That's coming in with anexpectation of something that's
already wrong before you getthere.
So if we go back to the, hey, Ihave a fever, I must have brain
cancer, and and that's me, youknow that.
I have a headache in themorning.
I go online, and what do I do?
I go to that doctor's website,WebMD.

(49:36):
Yeah, it says, Well, you haveheart fluttering.
And yeah, I tell Brian all thetime, I go, I think I'm dying.
I think I'm dying.
And then all of a sudden hegoes, No, you got a cold, take
an aspirin or whatever.
So, so the idea is the betterour baseline, the better our
ultimate decisions.
And that seems like a big jump,but it can be borne out, it can
be proven scientifically.

SPEAKER_00 (49:55):
Yeah, so this is what what I kind of like to do,
and I guess this is sort of befor the for the listeners, uh,
in a sense, like a challenge ornot, you know, just a thing that
you can do to get better atthis, is whenever you're gonna
go somewhere, let's say you'regoing to pick up the kids from
school, you're going to thegrocery store, you're going here
to run out and do whatevererrand you got to go do.

(50:15):
It's literally before you go,you sit there and go, okay, what
should I expect to see here?
What's it gonna typically looklike?
What's the parking lot gonnalook and feel like?
Right, given this currentweather conditions, what should
I expect people to be drivinglike?
How long will it take me?
Right?
What what would you know,where's the construction at my
neighborhood, and I know what toexpect around that area?

(50:37):
What and you just start askingall of those questions because
then what you do is now you'replaying a game and your brain
likes that.
Your brain's going, okay, well,well, let's see.
Can I prove my hypothesis?
Was I right about this?
Was that you know person thereat the exact same time every
day, or was it different today?
You know, and so now you'reactually attending to those
things and now you're proving toyourself, or you're finding new

(51:00):
novel things that you otherwisewouldn't have found, right?
And so it's it's it's all aboutthose things.
And I love doing that in everyparking lot because parking lots
are it, you learn everything youever need about humans at human
civilization in a parking lot,especially anywhere near Brian
in the parking lot because it'sMcDonald's parking lot where
he's got his washing machineboxing.

SPEAKER_02 (51:19):
Yeah, exactly.
He can go in and wash up when heneeds to.
He's got some free Wi-Fi, he'sgot dumpster for breakfast,
lunch, and dinner.
And guess what?
If he needs to hitch a ride,it's right there.
Right there.

SPEAKER_00 (51:30):
Wait, no, but make for money while people are
waiting in the drive-thru line.
They're not, they can't go,they're waiting their food, you
know.

SPEAKER_02 (51:36):
Make money, money, money, make money.
So the idea is that I would saythat's an assignment that's
practical and it's easy.
So we're what Brian has givenyou, is given an idea of
journaling or diary entries andnot dear diary.
I saw a B today.
What you're trying to say islook, just drive to work.
Don't do anything different.
Just drive to work, and thenonce you get to work, recount

(51:58):
those things that happened.
I went on the 405, I did this, Itook exit 213, uh, full, I did
this, whatever.

SPEAKER_00 (52:05):
You know, I took the 405 to La Cienega, got off at,
you know.

SPEAKER_02 (52:11):
Whatever your home is.

SPEAKER_00 (52:13):
What are you doing here?

SPEAKER_02 (52:14):
Write those things down and then write them for
your trip to the pharmacy, thenwrite them for your lunch,
right?
And and it doesn't have to be asdetailed the first couple of
times you do it, because you'renot gonna notice as much.
Then, after three or four daysof journaling, now go back and
compare them.
Now yellow pattern and go, lookat these trends, look at these
things that occurred, thenpredict where you're gonna be on

(52:36):
that fifth day.
And guess what?
All of a sudden you see, wait aminute, I'm setting patterns.
Well, patterns help me build arobust baseline.
The more things that arerepeated over time, and the more
things that I can take away andthey come back, entropy, the
more likely that it's a truebaseline comparison.
And if I have a question aboutthat, enlist the aid of others.

(52:59):
I call Brian and I go, Hey, I'mtaking a look at you know, third
guy, second from left, wearingthe blue shirt.
Oh, the blue collared shirt?
No, blue t-shirt.
Yeah, I got him.
Yeah, something's wrong here.
What what am I picking up?
Why is this guy so interestingto me?
And now, guess what we got?
So, so if I'm the only officeron a traffic stop, if I'm the
only person in the HR roomconducting an interview, if I'm

(53:20):
the only person seeing behaviorthat's interesting to me in a
cafeteria, once I enlist the aidof others and that person has
been trained in externalbaselines, guess what?
Now we're gonna nail it down.
We're gonna find those anomaliesand make our decision much more
quickly.
And and our brain is designed todo that.
Myelinization is exactly thatprocess.
We we take those axons anddendrites and make them faster

(53:41):
and stronger over time.
And our memory and our recall isset up in such a way that if
it's survival-based, it's gonnacome to us first.
Fear is a great motivatingfactor.
Anger is a great motivatingfactor.
Those are things we forget,those are simple lessons that we
forget that can really help usmake a better baseline.

SPEAKER_00 (53:59):
Well, you yeah, one being you're it's it's it's
happening already, like yourbrain's already doing this
process.
Exactly.
So if you're not informing withwith good information, meaning
if you're not adding to thatbaseline, or your your limbic
system is going to make adecision for you.
And it could very well be thewrong decision.
And and that that's that's thething.

(54:20):
It's like if you're notunderstanding that this is a
system, you know, I we we peoplekind of talk about it like, oh,
you got your you know, your yourlimbic system hijacked you.
It's like, no, no, no, yourlimbic system is always driving
the bus.
You have to hijack it, like youhave to be the one.

SPEAKER_02 (54:36):
Knocking out the window, running alongside of it.
Yeah, yeah, like it's open thedoor, wait, hold the bus.

SPEAKER_00 (54:41):
So that that's a good thing.
But you you also actuallybrought up a really good one as
like sort of what you usuallysay, like enlist the aid of
others, if asking that person atthe person working at the
grocery store, hey, typically Isee this.
Is there a reason?
Oh, yeah, we're out of stock onthat, or we got this new one in.
And so you're already givingthem a baseline.
You're giving it to you.

SPEAKER_02 (55:00):
I did it, I did it the other day at our local city
market.
I I went up to a person that wasstocking shelves and go, hey, I
hate to bother you, but thisguy's high in the shoplifter
list.
Am I safe here?
And all I wanted to do is pointout an anomaly.
I wasn't sure what was going on.
This could have been oldhomeless Pete, it could have
been set up for a robbery, orthis guy comes in every morning
because he's walking his dog.

(55:21):
I didn't know.
So guess what?
I asked a question.
I threw the rock.
I threw the rock in the pond tosee what would come back.
And now that's enlisting the aidof others too.
Brian, did I really want tobreak down?
Did I want him to call cops orsearch for this guy?
I just wanted to bring hisawareness level up to a general
awareness level so things wouldstick out from that point
forward.
We do that all the time when youand I are driving together.

(55:43):
It's an easy lift and anybodycan do it.

SPEAKER_00 (55:46):
And and that that interactive piece with another
person is a good comparison.
I love good, I tell you about mygrocery store adventures because
I have certain things that Ilike to do, and I always like I
one, it's my way ofunderstanding the world because
I just don't get it.
So I have to go into a grocerystore and I look for everything
in it.
I'm like, because I categorizethings much differently in my
brain.
I'm like, oh, if I'm looking forthis, that should probably be
over here.
And it's like, oh no, that'sover in this section.

(56:08):
I'm like, what the hell?
So I always have to ask, andthen I learn, I'm like, oh,
okay, I I get this new Deweydecimal system that you guys are
using here.
It's different than Brian's, butbut okay, I can navigate the
world.
But hilarious because you know,now that I'm in I'm in
Minnesota, I wouldn't writeright across the border from
Wisconsin there.
So now I was looking at I wasmaking something, I needed to
get some cheese, and they gotthis whole huge display in the

(56:29):
middle of all these differentcheese from all the different
like local stuff and this.
And I'm looking through thereand I'm like, wow, this stuff
looks good.
This and the one comes up to me,he's like, You look a little
like kind of you look a littlelost.
Are you do you can I help youwith anything?
And I was like, No, I just hadlike this existential crisis
moment right now, realizing I'mgetting much older now because
I'm really this interested infucking cheese and not just like

(56:50):
yeah, this is now a cool thingto me because I'm I'm like an
old man now, you know what Imean?
It's like, oh god, like but itwas so you're looking at the
cheese.
Yeah, so she's sitting therethinking, like, oh, you're
looking for some specificcheese, and I'm like, no, I'm
just just just you know, deathis knocking at the door and it's
getting closer.
And now I know like I'm lookingat like, man, I remember my
parents doing this, is soembarrassing.

(57:11):
I'm such an old man.
That's funny, but that's fine,but uh, but no, that enlisting
the eight of the others, andthen so so those little things
that you can do are are fun,they make it exciting.
I that's what I've been alwaysdone with like with the
insurgent and now with theterrorists, you know.
It's like, where are we going?
Okay, here.
Oh, what do you oh, who'stypically there?
Oh, do we have this?
Or there's a lot of teams atthis volleyball tournament
you're going to, or is it thatlike, well, what else is there?

(57:34):
Well, usually it's this, or orwhen I see her look in the face,
like, hmm, that's weird.
I go, well, what's wrong?
Well, normally they do this.
So you you can do that becausewhat your brain is already doing
it.
So the more consciously awareyou are of it, the better you
get at doing it.
So I prime her with doing thatall the time.
So now she obviously her headtilt that little bit.
I know she's picking up onsomething that's different,
that's odd.

(57:54):
So I don't even have to like I'mwalking into her you know
volleyball game for the firsttime, and I'm going, okay, just
taking all in, and she's got thehead tilt.
I know, oh, wait a minute,something's different here today
because she's picking up on it.

SPEAKER_02 (58:07):
So so let me throw one at you.
So Brian and I are at Liberty.
Liberty's coming up in February,folks.
Make sure that you write it onyour calendar.
So we're at Liberty University.
We always have a resoundinglypositive experience there.
Yeah, it's absolutely wonderful.
So Brian and I are unloading outin the parking lot, and it's a
storm of the century.
It's a Virginia storm, man.
Clouds are dark, lightningcrash, and rain pouring.

(58:29):
It's just barely light in themorning, and it's still just
pushing off our day.
Everything is different aboutour day, right?
And so then we have to go to thedoor, and the door's an
electronic door, and forwhatever reason this morning
it's malfunctioning, so a personhas to come from the counter,
let us in.
Then Brian and I get into theroom, and we notice that inside
the room, there's a bunch ofpeople that are already sitting
down, they're dripping wet,setting up their stuff.

(58:51):
But there's one table ofgeriatric folks, and they're
sitting around with theircoolers and their gosh damn, you
know, coffee mugs andeverything, and they're talking
and having a good time, and theyjust don't fit the demographic
of anybody that's ever been inany of our classes ever.
So immediately I walk over andlook, we have folks from Liberty
represented.
We have professors and teachersthat are already there, and

(59:12):
nobody's approached these folks.
And I go, Hey, what what classare you guys here for?
And they go, Oh, we're here forthe baking with uh Larry.
Yeah.
And it was across the hall.
Do you remember that?
Yeah.
And we all laughed and they hadto get up their knitting and
take their dog and go across thehall.
And I went to the other peoplethat were there that 30 minutes
probably before we were, and Igo, How come you guys didn't
help those folks?

(59:33):
And they said, Well, we thoughtthey were here for the class.
The reason it stuck out, Brian,yeah.
You and I had a robust, fidelityfilled baseline for what it's
like being us, what it's like,and even though we're in a
different part of the worldhaving a class in a different
room, guess what?
We knew what was clinicallynormal for that setting, and
these things stuck out.
So that's all we're saying.

(59:54):
And we're saying it can make youit allows you to reach
conclusions that are betterconclusions.
More quickly.
And that's the bank faster.
That's left of boom.
That's left of opportunity.
And that's where you want to be.
You don't want to be ambushed.
You don't want to be surprised.
So no, and and I appreciate theuh stories like that because
guess what?
Was I absolutely a hundredpercent sure?

(01:00:15):
No.
Was I sure enough to go over andtalk to him and save us both
some time?
Yep.

SPEAKER_00 (01:00:21):
And that's all it is.
So it's it's again, it's a timeand distance.
So now I can make decisions thatare more informed and I can make
them faster and I can mitigatesome potential thing in the
future.
So that's a good assignment forkind of yeah, yeah.
Yeah, those old people getangry, you know.

SPEAKER_02 (01:00:42):
Yeah, where's our croissant?
You bastards.
So or with you, where's ourcheese?

SPEAKER_00 (01:00:48):
Yeah, yeah.
It was it was a it was a badday.
So yeah, we gave some someassignments, some little things
that you do.
Uh, I would also you check outon Patreon, we'll we'll do some
more on there, like kind of whatwe call like baseline
development exercises, thingsthat we do, how to make sense of
it.
And we'll give some examples ofthat and things that you can do.
And then also if you're you'reinterested in learning more,

(01:01:08):
there's also I would go back andlisten to like our first we did
podcasts on the firstprinciples, sense make versus
sense make, kind of how thisthis stuff works and some more
examples.
But I I also just encouragepeople like literally do
baseline plus anomaly equalsdecision and and figure it out
from there.
Just take that and go start witha baseline and get really,
really, really, really, reallygood at it.

(01:01:30):
And then those anomalies,they're just gonna kind of start
to pop up and you're gonnayou're gonna recognize them as
anomalous before it it before itbecomes obvious, right?
And that's the time to do it.

SPEAKER_02 (01:01:39):
If you get a chance, go to Patreon because Brian and
I are gonna give some hints andand hacks and ideas of different
ways of making it fun andinteresting.
So when you graduate from oneand think you've gone as far as
you can go, no, there's alwaysmore.
Things never considered.

SPEAKER_00 (01:01:55):
It's it's it's it's fractal, I guess.
There's there's you're you canget keep going deeper and deeper
and deeper and deeper, and andit really helps a lot of
situations.
So any any other last words?

SPEAKER_02 (01:02:04):
Uh yeah, just a couple of saved rounds real
quick.
Look, every Monday I drop uh ithappened on a Monday on
LinkedIn.
If you guys like that or youwant to look for it, or look for
it, or look at the pastepisodes, do me a favor, share
that with people.
You can repost it without sayinganything, or give it a thumbs
up.
Those kind of things help us.
Brian posts stuff too, and it'svery uh great stuff about
upcoming courses, aboutdifferent connections that we

(01:02:27):
have.
Do those things because look,you're part of a community.
You are uh Cognarati, and welove that interaction because
that interaction will help yougrow professionally and
personally.

SPEAKER_00 (01:02:39):
If, especially if you're still listening at this
point, an hour in, you know,definitely connect with us on
social media, follow us onInstagram and Facebook and
everything, and connect with uson LinkedIn, you know, because
you're if you're listening now,you either enjoyed it or you or
you hate us.
But either way, connect with us.
We'll see you on Grindr.
It helps it helps the algorithm,even if you hate us.

SPEAKER_02 (01:02:57):
Yeah, but you know, what I'm saying is look, a lot
of people come to us and go,what book do you want to read?
Brian, what how how much did weunpack in the last 59 minutes?
Yeah, I hope.
And it's free, folks.
Get into it.

SPEAKER_00 (01:03:10):
Yeah, and please uh if you can share this with a
friend if you enjoyed it.
Give us a like, give us a thumbsup, all that stuff.
It really does help get themessage out there.
So we really appreciate it.
We appreciate everyone forlistening, and we're gonna
celebrate our 250,000 downloads.
That's I just just noticed thattoday.
I think it happened actually acouple weeks ago for some
reason.
I didn't get some alert, butwhatever.
All good.
We're here celebrating.

SPEAKER_02 (01:03:31):
I don't know.
Brian's a CEO now, things havechanged.

SPEAKER_00 (01:03:38):
Not a lot of money coming in, but yeah, we're we're
switching that for a while.
So all right.
Well, we think we appreciateeveryone for tuning in.
You know, we uh thanks a lot,and don't forget that training
changes behavior.