Victor Haghani on Predicting the Market and Disciplined Asset Allocation | #588

Today’s guest is Victor Haghani, founder and CIO of Elm Wealth, which focuses on managing wealth with an emphasis on diversification, low fees, and tax efficiency. He’s also the author of The Missing Billionaires: A Guide to Better Financial Decisions. In today’s episode, Victor explores the Crystal Ball challenge, and how position sizing can be even more important than knowing tomorrow’s news headlines. He also addresses the role of disciplined asset allocation in investment strategy, and how foreign stocks might stack up against US equities going forward. Finally, Victor touches on the relationship between expected return, fair value, and mean reversion, and whether or not the markets have a fair value at all. (0:00) Starts (1:45) Introduction of Victor Haghani (2:01) "Tomorrow's Newspaper Today" study (11:46) The Merton share (19:34) Elm Wealth's asset allocation strategy (24:02) Behavioral and tax implications in investing (39:19) Market timing models (56:01) Consumer behavior and Roth IRA conversions (1:02:05) Macro & mean reversion (1:06:08) Victor Haghani’s most memorable investment ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Sponsor: YCharts enables financial advisors to make smarter investment decisions and better communicate with clients. Get 20% off your initial YCharts Professional subscription when you start your free trial. Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at [e-mail] ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.  ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!  ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices